We asked our MLB experts to decide which of these players will keep up their current paces — and which are due to slow down during the stretch run.
Cal Raleigh is on pace for 61 homers. Will he go over/under that total?
Jeff Passan: Under 61, but not by much. The Seattle Mariners have 31 games remaining. Raleigh has had two distinct 31-game spans this year in which he has hit at least a dozen home runs — the number he needs to get to 61 — so it’s possible. Now that he has passed Salvador Perez for the most in a season by a catcher, Raleigh can target the Mariners’ franchise record of 56 set by Ken Griffey Jr. in 1997.
David Schoenfield: His pace has slowed since the All-Star break — which isn’t surprising because he was on a 64-homer pace at the time. He has had just one day off since the break, and the strikeouts have piled up in August, including a five-strikeout game and several three-strikeout games. Is Raleigh finally getting worn down from playing nearly every game? In other words: Under 61.
Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani are on pace for 55-plus home runs. Who will win the National League home run crown, and with how many?
Jesse Rogers: Schwarber will win the home run title, hitting 56 this season. He has historically slugged well in September and this year will be no exception. In his career, he has produced his second-highest slugging percentage (.521) in September, trailing only June. Ohtani is also good late in the year, but this is turning into a very special season for the Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter. He’s slugging .577 against left-handed pitching, which will translate into a couple more homers off lefties in September and be the difference in the home run race.
Buster Olney: Schwarber will win the title, but he’ll reach 59. He has figured out how to hit left-handers — stand in the box, take the HBPs and square up everything — and has absurdly even splits, with a .946 OPS against right-handers and .943 against lefties. And as strong as he has been this season, he’s just getting warmed up, with 20 homers in his past 45 games.
Aaron Judge leads the majors with 7.3 WAR. What will his final total be?
Jorge Castillo: Judge has quietly gone cold — by his standards — after the All-Star break, with a .193/.346/.398 slash line and five home runs in 24 games. He has insisted his flexor strain, which cost him 10 games on the injured list, isn’t affecting him, but it’s easy to wonder if the dropoff and injury are related. Chances are, Judge won’t play right field every day for the New York Yankees when he’s cleared to return to the field, so that would limit his WAR potential. Let’s go with 8.7 as the final number.
Bradford Doolittle: That 7.3 figure is the Fangraphs’ version of WAR, and its projected pace tool has him landing at 9.1. He’ll have to stay off the IL to hit that, and the pace doesn’t reflect that he might have to DH more often than not. That costs him positional value and the chance to add to his fielding value. He has also looked rusty since coming off his last IL stay. So, considering all of that, I’ll say Fangraphs’ pace is a tad optimistic and I’ll go with 8.9 for the final number … which is pretty good.
Nick Kurtz has an OPS of 1.026. Will he end the season as the rare rookie with an OPS over 1.000?
Doolittle: This could go either way. Of 497 players with at least 75 plate appearances, Kurtz is one of just five with an OPS over 1.000. It’s encouraging that his number isn’t inflated by his homer rate; he can hit. If you remove homers from everyone’s record, the Athletics’ first baseman still has a top-25 OPS.
Another good sign is that he has shown no home-road split. He just hits everywhere he goes except … when a lefty is on the mound. Conquering southpaws is Kurtz’s last frontier. Of the Athletics’ 11 remaining opponents (including Boston and Garrett Crochet twice), all of them rank in the top half in terms of batters faced by lefty starters. I’m guessing Kurtz’s Rookie of the Year season won’t feature an OPS over 1.000.
Schoenfield: Rare is an understatement. The only qualifying rookies since World War II with a 1.000 OPS were Albert Pujols and Aaron Judge. Kurtz should reach the 502 plate appearances needed to qualify and, yes, he’ll finish with a 1.000 OPS. How? His OBP is over .500 (!) in the second half as his walk rate continues to climb and pitchers increasingly pitch carefully to him. Kurtz is not just going to be one of the best hitters in the game — he already is.
Tarik Skubal is on pace for 247 strikeouts. Will he reach the mark?
Passan: Yes. Skubal is at 200 strikeouts through 25 starts. He has at least six starts remaining — possibly seven if the schedule lines up properly — and he has historically improved toward the end of the season. His September strikeout rate is his second highest of any month, and as he looks to become the first back-to-back American League Cy Young winner since Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000, finishing with a flourish will be paramount.
Rogers: Yes — but barely. There’s a world in which the Detroit Tigers clinch their division so early that they back off Skubal’s innings a tad over his final few starts, right? Then again, he’s bound to have a few outings totaling more than the eight strikeouts he averages per start. That would get him to the 250 mark by late in the month. And the Tigers are likely to have a first-round bye in the postseason — meaning Skubal can let it fly in September, knowing he’ll have a week off before taking the ball in Game 1 of the division round.
Paul Skenes leads the majors with a 2.07 ERA. Will his final mark be higher or lower?
Olney: I will say lower because it only makes sense for the Pittsburgh Pirates to give him as much rest as possible for the rest of the season. Pittsburgh isn’t playing for anything, but Skenes has a shot to win the National League Cy Young Award — and you’d assume that the Pirates will do everything they can to make that happen. He’ll close the season somewhere around 180 innings.
Castillo: A smidge over for two reasons: 2.07 is such a low number, and Skenes hasn’t been as sharp recently. The right-hander has given up 10 runs in five starts in August, good for a 3.21 ERA over 28 innings — with his most recent start on Sunday his best of the month, seven innings of three-hit ball. As Buster wrote, the Pirates will likely limit his workload down the stretch, so a significant increase won’t happen.
Freddy Peralta is at 15 wins. Will he be the first 20-game winner since 2023?
Doolittle: With Peralta failing to get win No. 16 on Saturday, he’s looking at an uphill battle. The Milwaukee Brewers might wrap up the top seed early-ish, so they wouldn’t be pushing Peralta during the final week. But let’s say he gets six more starts. He’s earning wins at a rate of .556 per start, so that’s 3.3 over six starts. Not enough! Peralta needs to win five of those last six starts, or all five if he gets only five more chances. I think he’ll get 19 wins. The 20-game winner drought will continue.
Schoenfield: I’ll say yes. Though we always complain about the lack of 20-game winners, we had one in 2023, one in 2022, one in 2021, two in 2019, two in 2018, three in 2016, two in 2015 and three in 2014. Yes, it’s becoming rarer, but we usually get at least one. So here’s hoping Peralta is the one.
Contreras has informed Major League Baseball he will appeal the suspension, which means it will not take effect immediately. He was in the lineup for Tuesday night’s game against the Pirates.
Contreras threw a bat that mistakenly hit Cardinals hitting coach Brant Brown and tossed bubble gum on the field after he was ejected. Manager Oliver Marmol also was tossed during an animated argument with the umpires after a called third strike in the seventh inning.
Contreras said he didn’t understand why he was thrown out of the game. He said he argued balls and strikes with plate umpire Derek Thomas but didn’t address a specific pitch and didn’t say anything disrespectful.
“Apparently, he heard something [he thought] I said. I did not say that,” Contreras said.
Crew chief Jordan Baker told a pool reporter that Contreras and Marmol were ejected for “saying vulgar stuff” to Thomas. Baker also said Contreras made contact with the plate umpire.
After Monday’s win, Marmol agreed with his player.
“We’ll have to dive into it to make sure what Willson’s saying is what happened,” he said at the time. “But I believe him.”
ARLINGTON, Texas — Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is likely done for the season because of a rotator cuff strain, another huge blow to the Texas Rangers and their hopes of making a late push for a playoff spot.
He said Tuesday that he had an MRI after shutting down a bullpen session between starts because of continued soreness. The 35-year-old pitcher said he was more sore than normal but was surprised by those results since he hasn’t had any shoulder issues in his 14 MLB seasons.
“It just felt like it was getting a little worse, so I shut it down and had the trainers look at it,” Eovaldi said. “Obviously, it’s just frustrating given how great the season’s been going. … I don’t want to rule out the rest of the season, but it’s not looking very great.”
Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young said Eovaldi likely will be put on the 15-day injured list Wednesday. He was supposed to start against the Los Angeles Angels in another opportunity to become MLB’s qualified ERA leader.
After allowing one run in seven innings against the Cleveland Guardians in his last start Friday, Eovaldi was the official ERA leader for one night. That put him at 130 innings in 130 Rangers games, and ahead of All-Star starters Paul Skenes (2.07) and Tarik Skubal (2.28) until Texas played the following day — pitchers need to average one inning per team game to qualify.
“Obviously it’s a big blow. He’s been just a tremendous teammate and competitor for us all year long,” Young said. “Hate to see this happen to somebody who’s been so important to the organization. But it seems par for the course with how some of the season has gone. So hate it for Evo, hate it for the team.”
With 29 games remaining going into Tuesday night, the Rangers were 5½ games back of Seattle for the American League’s last wild-card spot. The Mariners and Kansas City both hold tiebreakers over Texas.
The Rangers lost center fielder Evan Carter because of a right wrist fracture when he was hit by a pitch in Kansas City on Thursday. In that same game, durable second baseman Marcus Semien fouled a pitch off the top of his left foot, sending him to the IL for only the second time in his 13 MLB seasons. First baseman Jake Burger (left wrist sprain) also went on the IL during that road trip.
Semien and Eovaldi could potentially return if the Rangers make the playoffs and go on a deep run since neither is expected to need surgery. Semien’s recovery timeline is four to six weeks, and Eovaldi said he would get another MRI in about four weeks. Just under five weeks remain until the regular-season finale Sept. 28 at Cleveland.
Eovaldi has been one of baseball’s best pitchers all season, and part of the Rangers’ MLB-leading 3.43 ERA as a staff. He was left off the American League All-Star team and hasn’t been among qualified leaders after missing most of June with elbow inflammation, but Texas still gave him a $100,000 All-Star bonus that is in his contract.
This is Eovaldi’s third consecutive season with at least 11 wins since joining his home state team, and last December he signed a new $75 million, three-year contract through 2027. The 35-year-old Eovaldi and Hall of Fame strikeout king Nolan Ryan are the only big league players from Alvin, Texas.
Eovaldi has a 102-84 career record and 3.84 ERA over 14 big league seasons with six teams and has won World Series championships with Boston in 2018 and Texas in 2023. He made his MLB debut with the Los Angeles Dodgers (2011-12) and later pitched for Miami (2012-14), the New York Yankees (2015-16), Tampa Bay (2018) and Boston (2018-22).
“I take a lot of pride in being able to go every five days,” Eovaldi said. “To have the outcome that we have now, it’s very tough for me. And you always feel like there’s some way to be able to prevent an injury from happening. And, unfortunately, I wasn’t able to do that.”
ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the Washington Wizards from 2014 to 2016 and the Washington Nationals from 2016 to 2018 for The Washington Post before covering the Los Angeles Dodgers and MLB for the Los Angeles Times from 2018 to 2024.
NEW YORK — The Mets are calling up top-tier pitching prospect Jonah Tong, manager Carlos Mendoza announced Tuesday, as the club continues to bolster its staff with young talent for the stretch run.
Mendoza said Tong will start against the Miami Marlins on Friday in his major league debut.
Tong pitched himself into the big league picture with arguably the best season for a pitcher in the minor leagues, going 10-5 with a 1.43 ERA in 113 ⅔ innings across 22 starts between Double-A and Triple-A this season. The 22-year-old right-hander was recently promoted to Triple-A Syracuse, where he tossed 11 ⅔ scoreless innings over two outings.
“I think it’s all about dominating the minors,” Mendoza said. “It’s hard to keep him there.”
The consistent dominance, in combination with debilitating underperformance from veterans in the Mets’ starting rotation, prompted president of baseball operations David Stearns, who preaches patience in player development, to make the call.
Tong was the No. 21 prospect in baseball in the latest rankings by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. The Canadian will join Nolan McLean, the team’s No. 2 prospect who soared through the upper minors and was called up to boost the Mets’ struggling rotation earlier this month.
“This is fast,” Stearns said. “There’s no question this is fast. He’s pushed us on this because of his performance. We think he’s ready for this. We also acknowledge that this has gone faster than any of us would have anticipated at the start of this year.”
The decision to summon Tong came one day after veteran right-hander Kodai Senga continued his recent struggles, logging just four innings against the Philadelphia Phillies on four days’ rest.
Senga has a 5.40 ERA and has not completed six innings in eight starts since coming off the injured list last month. Mendoza indicated the team prefers to give Senga an extra day of rest moving forward.
“I’m going to be honest: Performance matters,” Mendoza said about Senga. “We’re to a point now where we got to see performance. And that was a conversation with him. We need him because he’s an ace. We’ve seen it in the past, but we haven’t been able to get that consistency. So, yeah, maybe it’s the regular rest, the extra day, whatever that is. We’re getting to a point where like every game, we got to put our best guys out there.”
Entering Tuesday, the Mets are 2 ½ games ahead of the Cincinnati Reds for the final National League wild card spot.
The baby-faced Tong, a seventh-round pick out of high school in 2022, made a significant leap forward in his development in 2024, but he reported to spring training this year seemingly on a path for a 2026 major league debut — as evidenced by the Mets’ decision not to invite him to big league camp.
Mendoza said he met Tong while watching a minor league game on a back field in which Tong was the ball boy.
“When you’re in the minor leagues, you got to go through those duties,” Mendoza said. “And that day, he happened to be on the Triple-A bench, and he was the ball boy and I sat right next to him, and I had a brief conversation. Kind of introduced myself [to] kind of get to know him.
“Genuine, humble and you could just see the youth on his face. It was, I don’t know, 10 minutes that we sat there and watched the game while I was trying to get to know him a little bit.”
Tong, who represented the Mets at the Futures Game last month, leads all 196 qualified minor league pitchers in ERA, FIP (1.66), batting average against (.148) and strikeout rate (40.5%) this season. His 0.92 WHIP ranks second. He has compiled 179 strikeouts and allowed just two home runs.
He boasts a fastball in the mid-90s that touches 97 mph and has produced a whiff rate of 36.5% this season. This year, he added a changeup in the mid-80s that has emerged as his second-most used offering and improved his effectiveness against left-handed hitters. A curveball and slider complete his repertoire.
Slight for a pitcher — he’s listed at 6-foot-1, 180 pounds — with a smooth and deceptive over-the-top delivery, Tong has drawn comparisons to former Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.
“What’s impressed us the most is the speed with which he’s expanded his arsenal in really effective ways,” Stearns said. “So, he’s added a changeup this year that’s been really good. And we’ve seen outings that have shown, I think, tremendous maturity on the mound — where something’s not working, he’s then able to switch an approach and go to the slider more, throw a few more curveballs, and allow himself to get through outings really successfully, even if he’s not following the exact plan that he thought he was going to follow when he went into the game.”
The Mets chose promoting Tong over Brandon Sproat, another highly regarded pitching prospect in Triple-A. Stearns explained the organization’s decision as a product of Tong’s excellence and the timing of the start, which will keep Tong, who last pitched on Saturday, on turn.
Sproat, 24, gave up seven runs across 3 ⅔ innings out of the bullpen for Syracuse on Saturday after recording a 2.05 ERA over his previous nine outings, all starts.
“Brandon’s done a tremendous job, and he’s probably had as good a second half of season as any pitcher in minor league baseball,” Stearns said. “He’s made some real adjustments. He’s pitched great.”
The Mets’ plan for Tong after Friday is unclear. While McLean has cemented himself in the club’s starting rotation after allowing just two runs over 12 ⅓ innings in his first two starts, Tong will join the Mets as their sixth starter.
Mendoza said he didn’t know if Tong would move to the bullpen following Friday’s start.
“We’re going turn by turn at this point,” Stearns said. “And it’s going to be a combination of what the matchups are, who we think match up well, how our guys are throwing, who needs rest, who doesn’t need rest. I think in September, we try not to plan too far ahead and we’re going to go turn by turn.”