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During the long, dark months between the end of one season and the beginning of another, we tell each other stories, because we need something to fill the void. We dress those stories up, calling them things like “way too early” rankings, preseason predictions or scalding hot takes, and we sustain them with statistics, data and historical perspective. But ultimately, they are at best educated guesses and, at worst, outright lies.

Then Week 1 comes along and college football delivers us a heaping dose of the truth, exposing our deceptions to the world like the kiss cam at a Coldplay concert.

On Saturday, college football’s truth still seemed hard to believe.

We’ve spent months burnishing the image of our next Heisman Trophy winner, Arch Manning. Only, in Week 1, Manning’s offense was overwhelmed by the defending champs, as Ohio State dumped Texas 14-7.

We’ve spent the summer laughing incredulously at Florida State ‘s Tommy Castellanos, seemingly the only player foolish enough to poke the bear by taunting Alabama when, in fact, he was a fortune-teller. Nick Saban couldn’t bail out the Crimson Tide on Saturday, and the Seminoles, buried after a 2-10 season a year ago, toppled Bama in convincing fashion 31-17.

We’ve heard all offseason Clemson was the class of the ACC, a nearly perfect team built around loads of returning talent that, after Dabo Swinney lost a bet with Tom Allen on who’d win the three-legged race at the team’s annual team picnic, even added players from the transfer portal. On Saturday, however, Clemson’s offense looked woefully similar to those stagnant offenses of years past. LSU‘s defensive front steamrollered its way to a 17-10 win in what used to be Clemson’s Death Valley, which must now be referred to as Critical-but-Stable Condition Valley due to the stakes of this matchup between two teams with the same nicknames for their stadiums.

Yes, Saturday’s results revealed that all our offseason narratives were no different than the description on a John Mateer Venmo transaction — dangerous, hilarious and completely made up.

In Columbus, the preseason No. 1 Longhorns couldn’t crack the scoreboard for the first 56 minutes of action. This was to be Manning’s coming-out party after two years in waiting behind Quinn Ewers; instead, the day belonged to new Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, a man hired only so Ryan Day wouldn’t have the weirdest-looking beard on staff. Patricia’s defense had an answer for everything Texas threw at it, holding Manning to just 17-of-30 passing, picking off a critical third-quarter pass to set up the decisive touchdown and stuffing the Horns on fourth down four times — including twice inside the 10-yard line.

It’s not that Ohio State’s offense wowed. A unit that proved deadly in last year’s College Football Playoff en route to a national championship mustered just 203 total yards — the Buckeyes’ worst regular-season output since 2015. But new quarterback Julian Sayin avoided any catastrophic mistakes and delivered a 40-yard dagger to Carnell Tate in the fourth quarter despite no one even knowing who his uncles are. If it wasn’t an emphatic endorsement for the 2025 version of Ohio State, it was a reminder the Buckeyes will not be swept aside without a fight.

In Tallahassee, Kalen DeBoer took another huge step toward having the word “tarmac” appear on his Wikipedia page. Since toppling Georgia last September and climbing to No. 1 in the AP poll, the Tide are just 5-5 overall, and Saturday’s loss to Florida State — a team that finished 2-10 a year ago — marks a new nadir.

In the aftermath, DeBoer was left scrambling for answers, saying, “There’s no excuse about what happened. We’ve got to play our style of ball. Last year isn’t this year. You’ve got to focus on the moment …” and there’s a long run past midfield by Castellanos.

Castellanos had promised a win, saying in June he saw no way Alabama could stop him. Lo and behold, he was right. The signal-caller who was benched at Boston College just a year ago ran all over an Alabama defense that seemed utterly flustered at times, despite FSU’s game plan including just nine completions.

But it was FSU coach Mike Norvell who delivered his own truth in the fourth quarter. After a year in which he aged on the sideline the way a president does over two terms, Norvell promised he wouldn’t let this team roll over in the face of adversity. After Alabama charged back to within one score, FSU faced a fourth-and-1 at its own 36, and Norvell decided to go for it. It was a decision that would have been lambasted if it had failed and the Tide tied the game, but Alabama transfer Roydell Williams plunged ahead for 4 yards, FSU capped the drive with a touchdown, and Norvell’s message to his team couldn’t have been more clear. This year is different.

Things are different at LSU, too. While so much of the college football world had grown to love Brian Kelly’s annual Week 1 postgame press conferences in which he’d raise a podium over his head while decrying his lack of a ground game and yelling “Hunk smash!” this year’s Bayou Bengals actually played hard from start to finish and finally snagged a season-opening win.

In what was billed as a showdown between arguably the two best QBs in college football, it was the LSU defense that stole the show, tormenting Cade Klubnik throughout and holding Clemson to 31 rushing yards. Clemson’s last 19 plays were all passes, and Klubnik was under pressure on nearly all of them. Swinney may insist on bringing his own guts, but he keeps leaving his rushing attack at home.

So here we are, still not quite through with the opening scenes of the 2025 season, and we’ve already upended the Heisman race, slayed a giant and left Kelly with a smile on his face. What were the odds?

Of course, that’s the point, right? After an offseason in which conference commissioners tried to codify their own stories in the form of scheduling metrics, guaranteed playoff bids and TV revenue splits, a real Saturday of games is the respite from the narratives, a reminder that the games remain blissfully unpredictable.

After all, to paraphrase Lester Bangs from “Almost Famous,” the only true currency in this bankrupt world of college sports is the jokes you share with someone else when watching Alabama lose as a 14-point favorite again.

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Trends | Under the radar | Heisman five
Notes from the road | Best of Texas-Ohio State

Week 1 vibe check

Each week, major upsets, emphatic wins and stellar performances grab the headlines around the college football ecosystem, but there are also many smaller storylines that matter just as much. We try to capture those here.

Trending up: Trendy fashion choices

Georgia Tech upended Colorado on Friday 27-20, but the real buzz was all about the attire of return man Eric Rivers, who took the field dressed as though he was the lead singer of Talking Heads during the “Stop Making Sense” tour or had just been selected sixth overall in the 1999 NBA draft.

If the Yellow Jackets have any sense of humor at all, Rivers should line up for his first scrimmage play next week rocking a pair of parachute pants.

Trending down: Bad fashion choices

To honor the city of New Orleans on the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, Tulane had hoped to don its 2005 uniforms for its game against Northwestern on Saturday. The Wildcats denied the request, which led to a 23-3 whooping by the Green Wave and some spicy comments from Tulane coach Jon Sumrall afterward.

“When you disrespect the city of New Orleans, you’re going to run into it,” Sumrall said. “I’m not trying to be a jerk, but don’t disrespect the city of New Orleans.”

In contrast, after Florida State’s QB disrespected the city of Tuscaloosa this offseason, Alabama responded by writing a sternly worded letter to its commissioner insisting that, instead of a nine-game slate, the SEC move to a 12 conference games so this can’t happen in the future.

Trending up: In-game ad revenue

Deion Sanders delivered on his promise to have a portable toilet on the sideline for Colorado’s game against Georgia Tech, and he even got it sponsored by Depend.

While we’re certainly glad to see Sanders is feeling better, the Buffs’ loss makes this sponsorship feel as though it’s one of the worst on-field marketing disasters since Red Lobster sponsored Les Miles’ ill-fated sideline seafood tower during the 2015 Texas Bowl.

Trending down: The middle seat from ATL to SYR

Tennessee‘s offense certainly didn’t look any worse off after waving goodbye to Nico Iamaleava. Transfer Joey Aguilar threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns in a 45-26 win over Syracuse.

This, of course, was bad news for whichever member of the Orange had to sit next to Syracuse coach Fran Brown on the flight home, as Brown famously refuses to shower after a loss. Luckily, for just an additional $29.95, Spirit Airlines will furnish the team with one of those “new car smell” air fresheners to hang above Brown’s seat.

Trending up: Short road trips

UConn packed the house at Rentschler Field with its largest crowd since 2013.

This could certainly be in response to fans getting excited after last year’s 9-4 campaign. Or it could be that the opponent, Central Connecticut State, drove up attendance. CCSU is actually closer to Rentschler Field (12 miles) than is UConn (24 miles).

Trending down: The Group of 5

On Thursday, the Group of 5’s playoff picture was upended when No. 25 Boise State — the lone ranked team outside the Power 4 — was stomped by USF Bulls 34-7. Then on Friday, the defending American champion, Army, fell in embarrassing fashion to FCS Tarleton State.

This could leave the door wide open for a surprise team from the Group of 5 to make a playoff run, but unfortunately Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti already called dibs on the spot and invoked the “no take backs” clause of his proposed playoff plan, so … congratulations Maryland. You’re in now.

Trending up: Upstaging celebrities

Much was made of the engagement of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift earlier this week, but the Kansas City Chiefs tight end didn’t manage the most romantic proposal of Week 1. That honor goes to this guy, who popped the question in the only truly romantic way possible: with mayonnaise.

We assume the wedding will be officiated by an anthropomorphic Pop-Tart, they’ll exit the reception by riding on the back of the Wake Forest Demon Deacon’s motorcycle, and they’ll honeymoon at the Bahamas Bowl which, this season, is probably being played in Little Rock, Arkansas for some reason.

Trending up: Lincoln Riley’s job security

USC thumped Missouri State 73-13, racking up nearly 600 yards of total offense and rushing for six touchdowns.

Riley would like to remind everyone that even if they get shut out against Georgia Southern next week, he would still be averaging 36.5 points per game, and that’s pretty good.

Trending down: Life expectancy for K-State fans

One week after seeing their team fall to rival Iowa State in the verdant hills of Ireland, Kansas State fans nearly suffered an even bigger indignity at the hands of a school mostly surrounded by cornfields, as North Dakota took a 35-31 lead into the final minute of the game.

Avery Johnson rode to the rescue this time, however, engineering a 10-play touchdown drive capped by a 6-yard completion to Joe Jackson to escape with a 38-35 win. Johnson threw for 318 yards and three touchdowns in the game and is now listed as the emergency contact on 86% of Kansas residents’ medical forms.

Trending up: The First State

Delaware toppled Delaware State 35-17 on Thursday, the Blue Hens’ first game as an FBS member.

With fellow newcomer Missouri State getting blown out by USC, that means that Delaware alone has the best winning percentage in FBS history (minimum one game). It’s the most exciting thing to happen in to the state since the new Hot Topic opened at the Concord Mall.


Under-the-radar game of the week

Entering Saturday’s action, Kent State had lost 21 straight games. The program was in shambles, and its last head coach, Kenni Burns, had been fired and (possibly) replaced by an AI program developed by some MIT dropouts who thought they were playing Minesweeper and accidentally coded a football algorithm.

And yet, the football gods smiled upon the Golden Flashes in Week 1, delivering a win in truly epic style.

Trailing 17-14 to Merrimack, a school that exists only in a child’s imagination, a player named — this is true — Da’Realyst Clark ran back a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown, putting Kent State up 21-17 with 5:28 to play.

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Merrimack Warriors vs. Kent State Golden Flashes: Full Highlights

Merrimack Warriors vs. Kent State Golden Flashes: Full Highlights

Sure, Kent State has Texas Tech, Florida State and Oklahoma — all on the road — in its next four games, but that’s of little importance today because, for the first time in nearly two full calendar years, the Golden Flashes are victorious. Turns out, that AI that thinks the Greek god of wisdom is Toyotathon knows a little something about football after all.


Under-the-radar play of the week

During pregame celebrations in Eugene on Saturday, the famed Oregon Duck took a nasty spill and lost his duck head, exposing the human underneath. While that was good for a laugh, the mascot’s reaction was truly impressive, as he sprinted a solid 25 yards at full speed wearing feet made out of felt, all while (we assume) screaming, “Look away! Look away! I’m hideous!” before returning to his secluded lair beneath an opera house.

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Oregon Duck loses his head and scampers off

Oregon Duck loses his head and scampers off


Heisman five

On one hand, Arch Manning saw his Heisman odds tumble after struggling in a 14-7 loss to Ohio State. On the other hand, at least he’s unlikely to have the Heisman stolen from him by Charles Woodson now, so he has got that going for him. Which is nice.

1. Oklahoma QB John Mateer

The Washington State transfer completed 30 of 37 passes for 392 yards and accounted for four touchdowns in a 35-3 win over Illinois State, a performance so impressive his friend sent him $50 bucks with the note: “Definitely not because of sports gambling.”

2. Florida State QB Tommy Castellanos

Some would call it ego. Some would call it cockiness. Castellanos would call his offseason commentary facts. After talking smack on Alabama in June, Castellanos backed it up with 230 total yards and a touchdown to take down the Tide 34-17. Given that head coach Mike Norvell is superstitious, we recommend Castellanos keep this up by insisting the Noles will hang 300 on East Texas A&M next week.

3. Georgia QB Gunner Stockton

Stockton threw for two touchdowns and ran for two more in a 45-7 win over Marshall on Saturday, then we assume he drove his F-150 over to the Burger King parking lot, sat in the back and listened to John Mellencamp cassettes while wearing a denim jacket and promising he’ll never waste his life working in the factory like his old man.

4. LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier

After throwing for 230 yards and a touchdown in a win over Clemson, Nussmeier now looks like the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL draft. His dad, Doug Nussmeier, just so happens to be the offensive coordinator of the Saints, and he was in attendance for Saturday’s win. After the game, the younger Nussmeier responded to his dad’s enthusiasm that he could be drafted by the Saints by saying, “Oh, wow, yeah. That sounds great, but really, it’s OK. You don’t need to go to all that trouble. Really. I’m sure there are lots of other quarterbacks who need a good home and, honestly, just focus on them. I’ll go to the Rams. It’s fine. That’ll be fine.”

5. Iowa State QB Rocco Becht

One week after upending Kansas State in Ireland, Becht delivered the Cyclones a dominant victory over FCS power South Dakota, throwing for 278 yards and three touchdowns in a 55-7 win. By federal law, South Dakota now needs to add Becht’s image to Mt. Rushmore in place of Thomas Jefferson.


Notes from the road

How FSU pulled the upset

Florida State coach Mike Norvell talked for months about wanting his team to play with an edge, with desperation, with heart — three key intangibles missing last year during a miserable 2-10 season.

The college football world saw all of that on display in a 31-17 win over Alabama. But perhaps most jaw-dropping was the physical way in which the Seminoles dominated the Crimson Tide up front. After allowing an opening 75-yard drive, the Florida State defense clamped down from there — and allowed just 3 yards per rush for the game.

The revamped offensive line, with four veteran transfers, dominated in its own right — not only opening up holes, but pushing defenders backward at nearly every turn. Florida State rushed for 230 yards, a year after averaging 89.9 yards per game — ranking No. 128 in the country.

“We wanted to be the aggressor, and we were,” Norvell said. “Our players, they rose to the challenge. We talked all year, and I’ve used the buzzwords of edge and desperation. That goes to the heart, and you saw heart tonight. We saw a team that absolutely loves playing this game together and were physically dominant, emotionally together, and they responded. This is a first step, but it’s a big step.”

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Florida State fans storm field after Noles upset Alabama

Florida State fans storm the field after opening the season with a 31-17 win over No. 8 Alabama.

It is a big step because of what happened a year ago. Florida State came off a 13-1 ACC championship season with one of the worst performances in school history. Those outside the program questioned Norvell, questioned the program’s direction. He needed a win like this to remind the general public the Florida State is not what it showed a year ago.

On the flip side is Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer, who already went into the season with Crimson Tide fans skeptical about him and the direction of the program after a 9-4 debut that ended with a bowl loss to Michigan.

You will remember DeBoer got the Alabama job over Norvell, and now the pressure is rising as the successor to Saban. Alabama lost a season opener by two touchdowns for the first time since 1970.

“There’s no excuses about what happened,” DeBoer said. “Last year isn’t this year, and it’s going to be an uphill climb for us, but you can’t think of it in the big scope of things. You’ve got to focus on the moment. And the next moment is, ‘What happens tomorrow?’ And we’ll find out. We’ll find out.” — Andrea Adelson


Ohio State’s defense came ready

Ohio State opened its national championship defense with a dominating defensive effort. And for the second straight season against Texas, the Buckeyes produced a game-clinching stop.

Despite eight new defensive starters, the Buckeyes flew around all afternoon and flustered hyped Texas quarterback Arch Manning into a stunningly erratic performance.

The Buckeyes did not surrender a play longer than 15 yards until late in the fourth quarter. They also came up huge in the red zone.

In the first half, the Buckeyes stuffed a Manning quarterback sneak on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line. Then in the fourth quarter, cornerback Davison Igbinosun swatted away a Manning fourth-down pass to the corner of the end zone.

“Every time you get a fourth-down stop, it’s like a turnover,” Day said after the game.

After a Texas touchdown with 3:28 to play, the Longhorns got the ball back again with a chance to tie.

But just like last season — when Jack Sawyer’s strip sack and score propelled Ohio State to victory over Texas in the CFP semifinals and to the national championship game — the Buckeyes got the key final stop — as Caleb Downs tackled Jack Endries short of the marker on fourth down.

The Buckeyes’ defensive performance allowed them to ease quarterback Julian Sayin into his first start. Sayin was 13-for-20 for 126 yards and a score in his first start. Unlike Manning, however, Sayin avoided turnovers.

“We were fairly conservative [offensively] because we felt like our defense was playing well,” Day said. — Jake Trotter


Best moments from Texas-Ohio State

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McLean retires last 14, 1st Met to win 1st 4 starts

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McLean retires last 14, 1st Met to win 1st 4 starts

DETROIT — Rookie Nolan McLean continued his brilliant start to his MLB career, retiring his final 14 batters Tuesday night to lead the Mets to a 12-5 victory over the Detroit Tigers.

McLean became the first Mets pitcher to go 4-0 in his first four starts, and just the first pitcher in the majors to do so since Chase Anderson, who started 5-0 with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2014.

After a rocky first inning, McLean finished with seven strikeouts while giving up two runs on three hits and three walks. He is the first pitcher to win his first four career starts while allowing two or fewer runs in each start since Jered Weaver, who did it in his first seven starts for the Los Angeles Angels in 2006.

“Another impressive outing for him,” manager Carlos Mendoza said. “We all saw how in that first inning, especially the sweeper and the curveball … he didn’t have command of those pitches. A couple of walks, and they got him with a couple of singles there. That’s what you call pitching. Understanding that you have to make adjustments and find a way to get through five or six innings, and he was able to do that.”

Mendoza added: “Another really good sign for a kid that is just making his fourth start at the big league level.”

McLean’s 28 strikeouts through his first four starts ranks second in Mets history behind only Nolan Ryan (29).

Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, who homered twice Tuesday night, said McLean’s work ethic has a lot to do with the incredible start to his career.

“I know everyone’s going to be talking about all the great stuff he’s doing on the field, which is for sure warranted, but how he’s going about his business, the day to day, it’s super impressive,” Alonso said.

“And that’s the reason why he’s able to do what he’s been able to do on the field. … He’s been a pro since he’s come up, and there’s no shock and awe for why he’s found his success.”

Juan Soto and Luis Torrens also homered for the Mets, who won the series opener 10-8 on Monday. New York moved five games ahead of Cincinnati for the final National League wild card.

The American League Central-leading Tigers have lost seven of nine.

Alonso’s first homer was a 435-foot drive in the first inning that landed between the first and second row of shrubs behind the center-field wall. Soto and Alonso hit back-to-back solo shots in a six-run seventh that gave the Mets a 12-2 cushion.

Soto has 37 home runs in his first season with New York, including five homers in the past five games. Alonso’s second homer was his 33rd of the year.

Jeff McNeil drove in three runs and finished with three of New York’s 17 hits. Brandon Nimmo and Brett Baty also had three hits for the Mets.

Information from The Associated Press and ESPN Research was used in this report.

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Valdez denies hitting Astros catcher on purpose

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Valdez denies hitting Astros catcher on purpose

HOUSTON — Astros starter Framber Valdez said he apologized to catcher Cesar Salazar after hitting him in the chest with a pitch Tuesday night, but the left-hander insisted it wasn’t intentional.

Valdez appeared to shake off Salazar on a 1-0 pitch with the bases loaded and Trent Grisham of the New York Yankees at the plate in the fifth inning. Salazar then urged Valdez to step off the mound, but he proceeded with the pitch, which Grisham launched to deep left field to give New York a 6-0 lead in an eventual 7-1 win.

On the second pitch to the next batter, Valdez hit Salazar in the chest with a 93 mph pitch, raising questions about whether he was upset about what happened in the Grisham at-bat and if it was intended.

Valdez said it was not.

“What happened with us, we just got crossed up,” Valdez said in Spanish through an interpreter. “I called for that pitch, I threw it and we got crossed up. We went down to the dugout and I excused myself with him and I said sorry to him and I take full responsibility for that.”

Valdez was then asked directly if he did it on purpose.

“No,” he said. “It was not intentional.”

Valdez and Salazar were talking when reporters entered the clubhouse after the game, and Valdez said they had sorted things out.

“We were able to talk through it,” he said. “We spoke after the game … at his locker and everything’s good between us. It’s just stuff that happens in baseball. But yeah, we talked through it and we’re good.”

Salazar also was asked about what happened on the pitch where he was hit.

“The stadium was loud,” he said. “I thought I pressed the button, but I pressed the wrong button. I was expecting another pitch, but it wasn’t it.”

Salazar said Valdez didn’t hit him on purpose.

“No, me and Framber we actually have a really good relationship,” he said.

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

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Welcome to September! Ranking the MLB playoff races that will rule the final month

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Welcome to September! Ranking the MLB playoff races that will rule the final month

With each postseason expansion throughout MLB’s history, the value of division races has diluted. In the wild-card era, you can finish in second place — or even third or fourth — and still win the World Series.

Does that make September less exciting? There’s no doubt it brings more teams and more fans into the mix. And a big game is still a big game, even if there is slightly less tension in a Red Sox-Yankees or Mets-Phillies series than there otherwise might be if both teams already know they’re going to make the playoffs.

Thus, we’re mostly left with wild-card races and battles for seeding to occupy our time and scoreboard watching. That still offers plenty of fun, still makes September the best month on the baseball calendar, and there’s still a lot of sweating going on when your closer walks two batters in the ninth trying to protect a one-run lead. The 12 postseason slots aren’t completely locked up, so if you’re a fan of the Mets or Mariners, you can’t breathe easily just yet — not until a playoff spot is clinched and the champagne uncorked.

September is here, believe it or not. We have races to decide. Let’s rank their potential excitement level over the final month.


1. National League West race

Standings: Los Angeles Dodgers up 2 games on San Diego Padres

What’s at stake: This is the best rivalry going on in the majors right now. The teams don’t like each other, the fans don’t like each other, and there’s still that element of David trying to knock out Goliath as the Padres seek their first division title since 2006 and their first World Series title ever. The teams have met three times in the NL Division Series since 2020 — with the Dodgers winning in 2020 and 2024 and the Padres victorious in 2022 — and with another rematch possible, home-field advantage could be key.

Do the Dodgers need to win the division? No, they will still be more focused on getting the pitching staff healthy and ready for October than on getting consumed in the race to win the division. It would probably mean more to the Padres, who want to finally beat their I-5 rivals in something besides that one playoff series. On the other hand, San Diego is probably a little better equipped for a short wild-card series, as it can ride its bullpen for the two or three games.

Series to watch: Somehow, the schedule-makers thought it would be a good idea to not have the Dodgers playing the Padres in September. The Dodgers finish with a road trip to Arizona and Seattle while the Padres end at home against Milwaukee and Arizona. The Dodgers won the season series, so they own the tiebreaker.

Dodgers player to watch: Blake Snell has been a notable second-half pitcher in his career and has a 2.54 ERA since returning from the injured list in August, but he hasn’t been quite as dominant as when he gets on one of his patented hot streaks (such as the second half last year, when he had a 1.45 ERA and .130 average allowed). The Dodgers won last season despite a beat-up rotation that wasn’t even all that effective in the playoffs. But the bullpen has been nowhere near as strong this season as in 2024, so they’ll need that dominant version of Snell down the stretch and in October.

Padres player to watch: Ramon Laureano has been the team’s best hitter since he was acquired at the trade deadline, slashing .305/.354/.581 with seven home runs and 23 RBIs in 28 games. He helped keep the offense afloat in August as Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. each hit just one home run on the month and Jackson Merrill has been injured. Laureano’s production has been great, but the Padres need more power from their big two.


2. American League East

Standings: Toronto Blue Jays up 3 games on New York Yankees, 3.5 games on Boston Red Sox

What’s at stake: This has been the wildest division race all season. The Blue Jays were eight games back in late May when they fell under .500 but have now held first place since July 3. The Yankees fell as many as 6.5 games back in August before cleaning up against the Washington Nationals and Chicago White Sox this past week to draw closer. The Red Sox were 41-44 on June 30, but only the Brewers have a better record since that date. The Yankees have a plus-134 run differential, whereas it’s plus-56 for the Blue Jays and plus-102 for the Red Sox, so you wonder why they’re even in this position. However, New York is 5-8 in extra-inning games (the Blue Jays are 8-4) and hasn’t played well against Toronto and Boston (5-15).

Series to watch: Blue Jays at Yankees (Friday-Sunday); Red Sox at Blue Jays (Sept. 23-25); Yankees at Red Sox (Sept. 12-14). All three season series have already been clinched: The Blue Jays over the Red Sox and Yankees and the Red Sox over the Yankees. That will leave the Yankees on the short end of any tiebreaker.

Blue Jays player to watch: Toronto acquired Shane Bieber at the deadline even though he was still completing his minor league rehab from Tommy John surgery. He has allowed three runs in two starts for the Blue Jays, striking out 15 with no walks in 11⅓ innings. It’s just two starts, but he looks like he did when he was the Cleveland ace, plus he has allowed the Jays to go to a six-man rotation. Don’t be surprised if he ends up as the Game 1 starter in the postseason.

Yankees player to watch: Aaron Judge is still probably the MVP favorite, but after missing 10 days with a flexor strain in his right elbow, he hasn’t been quite the same, hitting .241/.417/.506 with six home runs and 12 RBIs in 24 games in August. Though those are still good numbers, it seems fair to call it a slight slump by Judge’s recent historic standards — and it’s not the same level of production as before his injury. He also still hasn’t played the field, which limits the red-hot Giancarlo Stanton to pinch-hitting duties when the Yankees are on the road (manager Aaron Boone has been willing to play Stanton in right field at Yankee Stadium, where there’s less ground to cover).

Red Sox player to watch: Sixty-nine games into his career, 21-year-old rookie Roman Anthony has made it clear: He’s going to be a big star. Sure, he can cut his strikeout rate a bit, but he already has A-plus plate discipline and has the second-highest hard-hit percentage in the majors behind only Kyle Schwarber. And Anthony is also quickly learning to lift the ball, slugging six home runs in August after hitting one each in June and July.


3. National League race for No. 2 seed

Standings: Milwaukee Brewers hold No. 1 seed with 5.5-game cushion; Philadelphia Phillies up 1 game on Dodgers, 3 games on Padres

What’s at stake: The Phillies hold a comfortable lead over the Mets in the NL East, so they have about a 90% chance of winning the division, but Philadelphia is neck and neck with the pair of NL West rivals for the second-best record in the NL. Home-field advantage isn’t a must to win a World Series — we’ve seen wild-card teams take it all, such as the Rangers in 2023 when they were the fifth seed in the AL — but the Phillies have an extreme home/road split this season, going 45-23 in Philadelphia and 34-35 elsewhere. They’re hitting .275 with an .808 OPS at home, .239 with a .693 OPS on the road.

Series to watch: Phillies at Dodgers (Sept. 15-17). The Phillies finish with a six-game homestand against the Miami Marlins and Minnesota Twins, which looks like a favorable way to end the season.

Phillies player to watch: Kyle Schwarber, of course, and Cristopher Sanchez as he takes over the role of staff ace from the injured Zack Wheeler. But the bullpen has been the issue the past two postseasons for the Phillies, which puts Jhoan Duran on the spot as well. Acquired from the Twins at the trade deadline to take over as closer, Duran has mostly done the job, but he blew one save against the Nationals, picking up the loss, and then lost another game against the Mets when he allowed four straight hits without getting an out.


4. American League race for top two seeds

Standings: Detroit Tigers hold No. 1 seed and are up 0.5 games on Blue Jays, 3.5 games on Yankees, 4 games on Red Sox and 4.5 games on Astros

What’s at stake: Bragging rights? Momentum heading into the postseason? Home-field advantage? Sure, all those things are nice, and the Tigers have a notable home/road split (44-25 versus 36-33), so securing that top seed, which they’ve held much of the way in the AL, would be the final touch on an excellent regular season. Still, if you’re manager A.J. Hinch, you’re not going to burn out your rotation in September just to get that top seed. If the Astros climb closer to the Tigers and Blue Jays, however, it will get more interesting as teams want to avoid that wild-card series if possible.

Series to watch: Tigers at Yankees (Sept. 9-11); Tigers at Red Sox (Sept. 26-28); Yankees at Astros (Tuesday-Thursday); Astros at Blue Jays (Sept. 9-11)

Tigers player to watch: The Tigers have been searching for a No. 2 starter behind Tarik Skubal all year. Jack Flaherty has been inconsistent all season and had three starts in August where he allowed five or more runs. Casey Mize has a 7.20 ERA over his past eight starts. Chris Paddack? No. Maybe it’s 41-year-old vet Charlie Morton, who has a 4.61 ERA in his five starts with Detroit, as he has mixed in three excellent outings with two bad ones (although he fanned 10 in one of the bad ones). No matter what, there are going to be a lot of bullpen games for the Tigers in the playoffs when Skubal isn’t pitching, especially since the pen was much better in August after struggling in June and July (and adding some depth at the deadline).


5. American League West

Standings: Houston Astros up 2 games on Seattle Mariners

What’s at stake: The Mariners haven’t won a division title since … hold on here, scrolling through the years on Baseball-Reference.com … that’s right, the 116-win season in 2001. The Mariners made some weird pact with the baseball gods that season, which for some reason didn’t include them making the World Series after their historic regular season but did include them not making the postseason again until 2022. That’s right: They remain the only franchise never to appear in the Fall Classic. Winning the division would increase their odds just a bit and allow them to set their rotation for the ALDS.

Series to watch: Mariners at Astros (Sept. 19-21). The season series is tied 5-5, so the winner of this series gets that crucial tiebreaker edge. Of note: The Mariners have lost five consecutive road series and are 1-6-1 (they split a four-game series) in their past eight. The Astros have managed to keep their grip on first place despite going 12-13 in July and 13-15 in August. They’ve won every full-season AL West title going back to 2017.

Astros player to watch: Yordan Alvarez returned last week after being out since early May with a hand injury. He homered in his second game back and didn’t strike out in his first five games. The Astros have even started him twice in left field, allowing them to give Jose Altuve a DH day. Bottom line: If Alvarez is producing, a below-average offense suddenly looks at least like an average — or better-than-average — offense. With Alvarez, Altuve and Carlos Correa, it’s 2019 or 2021 all over again, two seasons that ended with the Astros playing in the World Series.

Mariners player to watch: How much does Cal Raleigh have left in the tank? He’s sitting on 50 home runs but also hit .194 in July and .173 in August. He’s still doing damage with the long ball and has had 17 home runs and 36 RBIs over the two months, but he’s not carrying the offense as he did in the first half.


6. American League Wild Card

Standings: Mariners hold third wild-card spot and are up 2.5 games on Kansas City Royals, 3 games on Texas Rangers and 4 games on Cleveland Guardians

What’s at stake: By no means are the Mariners out of the AL West race against Houston, but they also haven’t played well enough to pull away in the wild-card fight, even after everyone declared them a sure-thing playoff team following the acquisitions of Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor at the deadline. But given Seattle’s recent history of just missing the playoffs — two wins short in 2021, one short in 2023 and 2024 — Mariners fans are understandably nervous about blowing it, especially with the Royals and the Rangers refusing to go away.

Series to watch: Mariners at Royals (Sept. 16-18); Royals at Guardians (Sept. 8-10); Rangers at Guardians (Sept. 26-28). The Royals finished one game ahead of the Mariners for a wild-card spot last season, so this looks like the key series. The Mariners have one three-game series in Houston starting Sept. 19. If they can survive this current road trip — they just went 1-2 against Cleveland and now head to Tampa and Atlanta — that series looms large as well.

Royals player to watch: Is it too late to toss Bobby Witt Jr. into the Judge/Raleigh MVP debate? He’s making a late run with his outstanding all-around game and just had his best month of the season. With Vinnie Pasquantino mashing home runs and some trade acquisitions chipping in, Kansas City is peaking at the right time. The Royals have played well for two months now and have a pretty soft schedule for the final month.

Rangers player to watch: The Rangers looked out of it, and they’re going to be without Nathan Eovaldi for the rest of the season — and likely Marcus Semien as well — and Corey Seager for some period of time following an appendectomy. But they just won three series in a row. Without Eovaldi, Jack Leiter has to continue to pitch well: He has a 2.88 ERA over his past 11 starts and just tossed back-to-back excellent games.

Guardians player to watch: Cleveland is barely hanging in there, taking two of three against the Mariners as Kyle Manzardo hit big home runs in wins Friday and Saturday. He’s hitting .273/.362/.545 since July 12, giving Cleveland a much-needed power source other than Jose Ramirez.


7. National League East and NL Wild Card

Standings: Phillies up 6 games on Mets in division; Mets up 4 games on Cincinnati Reds in wild card

What’s at stake: The Mets temporarily made the division race interesting again after sweeping Philadelphia early last week but then lost three of four at home to the Marlins. That’s unacceptable if you want to win the division. The Reds continue to falter, so the Mets’ wild-card spot looks reasonably safe, though they are just .500 since May 1.

Series to watch: Mets at Phillies (Sept. 8-11); Mets at Reds (Friday-Sunday). With next week’s four-game series, the NL East remains in play even though it would take an epic New York comeback combined with a Phillies collapse for the Mets to win the division. They’ve already clinched the season series over the Phillies with a 7-2 advantage. Meanwhile, the Reds have a chance to put pressure on the Mets with a three-game series in Cincinnati before New York’s trip to Philadelphia.

Mets player to watch: Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong. The Mets’ rotation has scuffled for a while, so suddenly the season rests heavily on their two prized rookie starters. McLean won his first three starts, allowing just two runs in 20⅓ innings. Tong, who led minor league starters in ERA and strikeouts, beat the Marlins in his debut Friday, striking out six in five innings with no walks while showcasing the changeup that allowed him to dominate the minors.

Reds player to watch: What’s happening with Elly De La Cruz‘s power? He hasn’t homered since July 31 and has just one in his past 58 games.


8. National League Central

Standings: Brewers up 6.5 games on Chicago Cubs

What’s at stake: This is another David vs. Goliath matchup. Milwaukee, of course, is Goliath. The Cubs won the NL Central in the COVID-shortened season of 2020 but haven’t taken a full-season division title since 2017. Given the Brewers’ lead with no signs of faltering, the odds are slim that Chicago can chase them down.

Series to watch: The two teams are done for their season series, and the Cubs took it 7-6, so at least they own the tiebreaker.

Brewers player to watch: Closer Trevor Megill landed on the IL a few days ago with a flexor strain in his elbow after blowing three saves since mid-August, so Abner Uribe takes over. If the Cubs have a chance to catch the Brewers, it might be because the Milwaukee pen, which has been worked hard, burns out in September, especially with the Brewers in the midst of playing 19 games in 18 days.

Cubs player to watch: Kyle Tucker slumped as he played through a hairline fracture in his right hand for two months. He finally broke out with three home runs in two games and has hit over .400 his past nine games. The Cubs’ offense was horrid in August — Pete Crow-Armstrong also struggled — and they’ll need Tucker and the rest of the lineup to rebound in September.


9. American League Central

Standings: Tigers up 9.5 games on Royals

What’s at stake: This one is all but over — though, it’s not impossible for the Royals. The Mets blew a seven-game lead in 2007 with 17 games to play. The 1995 Angels entered September with a 7.5-game lead and lost the division in a tiebreaker game. The 2009 Tigers were up seven games on Sept. 6 and blew it. The 2011 Braves had an 8.5-game lead in the wild-card race at the start of September and missed the playoffs. And during that same season, the Red Sox were leading the Yankees in the AL East and nine games up on the Rays — who would catch them on the final day of the season to win the wild card. So … you never know.

Series to watch: The Tigers and Royals are done playing each other, with Detroit winning the season series 9-4.

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