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In Starkville, they stormed the field with cowbells.

In Gainesville, they might soon be storming the castle with pitchforks.

For the SEC’s tale of two cities on Saturday, it was the best of times for Mississippi State and, if not the worst of times for Florida, it was perhaps the moment any hope for a revival under Billy Napier reached its nadir.

It was a Saturday about which much of the college football world offered a collective yawn in advance, but the day delivered its share of highlights and surprises, from Clemson‘s early struggles against Troy, to Baylor‘s rollicking comeback against SMU, to Bill Belichick racking up win No. 1 in college.

But all of that took second billing behind the audacity of the two most unlikely scores in the SEC.

Mississippi State, which had been in danger of being relegated to the title of “new Vandy,” had won just one of its past 17 games against Power 4 competition, but when No. 12 Arizona State rolled into Starkville on Saturday, the Bulldogs were ready.

Quarterback Blake Shapen threw touchdown passes of 48 and 47 yards and, with 30 seconds remaining in the game and trailing by 3, a 58-yarder to Brenen Thompson to seal the 24-20 win.

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Mississippi State upsets Arizona State on game-winning TD

Blake Shapen throws the game-winning touchdown in the final minute as Mississippi State upsets Arizona State.

What followed was utter euphoria unseen in Starkville since they announced the opening of a new Bass Pro Shops. The fans stormed the field, pulled down the goalposts, and, we assume, carried them off to be displayed at the town’s most sacred shrine: the Chili’s off Route 12.

Meanwhile, after USF’s go-ahead field goal as time expired knocked off the 13th-ranked Gators 18-16, Florida fans were left to rage against the football gods at their town’s most sacred shrine: the Chili’s off Archer Road.

Last season’s late run that included wins over LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State had offered ample hope that, perhaps, things were finally turning for the Gators. The post-Tim Tebow era has had its highlights, but each was followed almost immediately by a sudden, sharp and occasionally such massive failure that it could only be described as “Zook-tastic.” And so it was with the hope engendered by last year’s four-game winning streak, too.

DJ Lagway struggled to push the ball downfield, Florida was 4-of-12 on third down and the Gators’ defense had no answers for the magic of USF quarterback Byrum Brown, who threw for 263 yards and ran for 66 more.

When the dust settled, Napier was forced to take a hard look in the mirror and ask: “Does anyone remember my LinkedIn password?”

Florida still has eight games left against ranked teams, including five of its next six. The lone exception in that run is Mississippi State, which certainly doesn’t look like an easy win now either. A reality in which the Gators finish 2-10 seems entirely possible. Also, the state of Florida hasn’t had a power team finish 2-10 for, like … months.

That Mississippi State, the worst team in the SEC a year ago, could knock off last year’s Big 12 champion would normally be cause for Greg Sankey to drive his car through Brett Yormark’s rose garden while leaning out the window yelling, “Scoreboard!”

That Florida lost to an in-state team from a Group of 6 conference that doesn’t even have its own stadium would be cause for everyone who abhors the SEC’s arrogance to point and laugh and let the air out of Kirby Smart’s tires.

That both occurred on the same Saturday, within hours of each other, is destined to leave us all feeling a bit unfulfilled. Two weeks into a new college football season, perhaps that’s a good thing. That even the mighty SEC feels so uncertain is a reminder that we’ve just begun this story. We don’t yet know who the heroes are, which makes it entirely possible Mississippi State will be one. We don’t yet know which characters will meet with a tragic end, though Napier and Virginia Tech‘s Brent Pry certainly look the part.

If these are the opening chapters of 2025’s Dickens novel, we’re in for a heck of a ride the rest of the way.

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Trends | Rivalries | Under the radar

Heisman five | Notes from the road

Week 2 Vibe Check

Each week, the biggest games grab the headlines, but dozens of other performances move the needle in college football, too. We try to capture those here.

Trending up: Illinois’ tournament hopes

Duke outgained Illinois by 19 yards on Saturday but still managed to lose by 26 points, 45-19. It was a nifty statistical trick that can be blamed on a flurry of takeaways by the Illini defense, which converted four Duke fumbles and a Darian Mensah interception into 21 points. After the game, Duke noted the strangeness of the outcome, pointing out that it usually waits until the Elite Eight to waste a strong offensive performance because of too many turnovers.

Trending up: Stern discipline

Syracuse narrowly escaped an upset bid against UConn on Saturday, 27-20 in overtime. Syracuse trailed 14-3 at one point, took a 20-17 lead into the final minute of action, then saw the Huskies tie the game with a 41-yard field goal as time expired. A defensive stand in overtime preserved the win, but head coach Fran Brown was less than pleased with the overall performance, forcing his players to run sprints after the game.

Worse, Brown also gave explicit “no iPad for a week” orders and put QB Steve Angeli in timeout until he calmed down.

Trending down: Ill-fitting jerseys

Against Gardner Webb, Georgia Tech nearly repeated the brutal start it endured a week earlier vs. Colorado. In Week 1, the Jackets turned over the ball on each of their first three drives. This time, they fumbled away their first possession and tossed a pick on the next. Tech did rebound nicely for a 59-12 win, but the real disappointment was the lack of the Snuggy Jersey (the jersey roomy enough for the whole family to snuggle up and watch old footage of Paul Johnson’s offense, but versatile enough to wear when returning kicks). Unfortunately, Tech head coach Brent Key was not a fan and banished the jersey for good. It’s now stored in College Football’s forgotten treasures warehouse next to the Turnover Chain, Civil ConFliCt trophy and Houston Nutt.

Trending up: Celebrity showdowns

There was plenty of star power on display in Boulder, Colorado, in Week 2 as the Buffaloes welcomed Delaware. On one sideline was Deion Sanders, an NFL Hall of Famer, former two-sport star, reality TV personality and one of the biggest brands in sports. On the other sideline was Delaware, which is the country’s fifth-largest producer of shoehorns. The paparazzi was out in full force hoping to get a shot of Coach Prime or Delaware’s Ryan “Coach Tac-Shaver Infomercial on the CW at 3 a.m.” Carty, but the edge, in the case, went to Sanders. His Buffs overcame a sluggish start, no doubt due to being in awe of all the celebrities on Delaware’s sideline (Judge Reinhold, Teri Polo, the guy who works the overnight shift at the Wawa on Union Street), winning 31-7 behind two touchdown passes from third-string QB Ryan Staub. The Hens, meanwhile, had to settle for drowning sorrows with other A-listers at Elisabeth Shue’s late-night hot tub party.

Trending up: Revenge games

If last week was Florida State‘s coming-out party in a win over Alabama, Week 2 offered the Seminoles a chance to enjoy some sweet revenge. FSU walloped East Texas A&M 77-3, then celebrated by shouting, “That’s what you get for stealing Jimbo Fisher” and “We just scored a point for every $1 million you had to pay him to leave” all while its battered opponents helplessly insisted that, in fact, East Texas A&M is a completely different school than Texas A&M.

Trending up: Participation trophies

Division III Rowan was up 17-14 against Case Western with 2:07 left in the third quarter Saturday when a spate of bad weather rolled through — stand by, we’re Googling “Where is Rowan?” — New Jersey, suspending the action. Both sides waited patiently for four hours, listening, we assume, to Bruce Springsteen’s “The River” album on repeat, before school officials, coaches and the referees mutually agreed, according to Rowan’s press release, to call the game a 17-17 tie. The last tie at the FBS level of college football came 30 years ago when a Wisconsin and Illinois game finished 3-3, leading to the advent of overtime throughout college football and the forward pass in the Big Ten.

Trending up: Cash cows

Earlier in the week, Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy lamented all the money Oregon spent to build a winner, only for Ducks coach Dan Lanning to retort with a series of “Yo momma’s so poor” jokes and a 69-3 drubbing of the Pokes on Saturday. Meanwhile, Oklahoma, flush with enough cash this offseason to lure star transfers such as QB John Mateer, held off Michigan, a school whose NIL budget is currently earmarked to pay down NCAA fines and get Connor Stalions that new telescope and fake beard he has been asking for, 24-13. The lesson: Teams are only as good as their players, and good players don’t come cheap. On a totally unrelated note, we just received an email from a deposed oil baron in Oklahoma who just needs our credit card and social security numbers to help secure a fortune, which he’ll happily share with us.

Trending down: Coaching legacies

On Nov. 17, 2007, Nick Saban’s Alabama team lost to Louisiana-Monroe 21-14. On Saturday, Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama team beat Louisiana-Monroe 73-0. The math on this is pretty simple: DeBoer is approximately 10 times as good a coach as Saban.

Meanwhile, Clay Helton made his long-awaited return to Los Angeles, taking his Georgia Southern team to USC, a school that fired him in 2021 despite a .657 win percentage at the school — right in line with the Trojans’ current coach, Lincoln Riley (.651). But on Saturday, Riley and USC rolled to a 59-20 win, proving once and for all that hiring him was absolutely the right call.

Rivalry Rundown

Week 2 isn’t a true rivalry week, but it did feature a number of passionate tilts between old enemies.

Cy-Hawk Trophy

Iowa State defeated Iowa 16-13 and held on to the Cy-Hawk Trophy thanks to a pair of circus catches by tight end Gabe Burkle on a go-ahead fourth-quarter drive.

It’s the sixth time in the past seven years of the rivalry in which neither team topped 20 points, and in this year’s incarnation, neither squad managed more than 238 yards of offense.

Iowa State prevailed thanks to the leg of kicker Kyle Konrardy, who booted field goals of 44 yards and 27 yards, as well as a 54-yard game winner.

Iowa threw for 83 yards in the game, a tally Kirk Ferentz frustratingly noted was almost the full length of the field and should’ve been plenty enough to win. Still, as punishment, only the defense and punters were allowed to get ice cream at the Tastee-Freez afterward.

In the past seven games in this series, Iowa’s QBs have combined to complete just 51% of their throws, averaged 4.4 yards per pass, thrown just one touchdown and five picks.

Border Showdown

The hatred between Kansas and Missouri dates back nearly two centuries. The hatred between Kansas and Missouri dates back nearly two centuries, ignited by years of guerrilla warfare during the Civil War and reaching its apex when Chase Daniel engineered a truly epic series of prank calls to Mark Mangino’s house in 2007. But since 2011, when Missouri departed for the SEC, the rivalry had remained dormant — until Saturday.

The renewed ferocity between the two programs was on display early, as Kansas jumped out to a 21-6 lead, only to see Missouri roar back. Beau Pribula threw for three touchdowns in helping the Tigers pull away to a 42-31 win — their fifth straight in the series.

And, as is the customary stakes for the loser of this rivalry, Kansas is now forced to take responsibility for the Kansas City Royals.

Baylor-SMU

What was once a heated rivalry in the old Southwest Conference had gone dormant for the past nine years, but Baylor and SMU renewed hostilities in Dallas on Saturday.

SMU hadn’t won in this series since 1986 — the year before the program received the dreaded “death penalty” for running the country’s best NIL collective — but the Mustangs appeared poised to break the streak, nursing a 14-point lead with less than six minutes to play.

But Baylor didn’t back down, riding QB Sawyer Robertson to two late touchdowns to force overtime, where the Bears won on a walk-off field goal, 48-45. Robertson finished with 440 yards passing and four touchdown throws, then did doughnuts in SMU’s parking lot in a Trans Am with a big gold eagle on the hood, just for spite.

Bayou Bucket Classic

Houston upended in-city rival Rice 35-9 behind 132 yards rushing and two touchdowns from running back Dean Connors. The win means, for the second straight year, Houston retains the Bayou Bucket. But don’t feel bad, Rice. Popeye’s sells a Bayou Bucket with three sides for just $21.99. You really can’t beat that deal.

Under-the-radar play of the week

With five minutes left in the first half, and Kent State already trailing 38-0, center Dustyn Morell delivered a play that perfectly sums up the current state of the Golden Flashes program.

Texas Tech scored following the fumble recovery and went on to win 62-14. It’s hard to entirely fault Morell though. He’d been eating caramels before the play and his hands were sticky.

Under-the-radar game of the week

With just 1:43 to go, UMass allowed Bryant — a team that’s just 11 guys who all showed up at the local YMCA wearing Kobe Bryant jerseys on the same day — to march 78 yards and drill a 25-yard game-winning field goal. The Minutemen fell 27-26, the most embarrassing moment in the program’s football history since — we’re guessing last week. The good news for UMass is it’s just a mere 35 days away from playing Kent State.

Heisman five

Arch Manning is currently sitting in his car outside the Heisman House listening to mix tapes and wondering how many touchdown passes a guy has to throw against San Jose State to earn a guest pass for the weekend.

1. Oklahoma QB John Mateer

Against one of the nation’s best defenses, Mateer accounted for 344 total yards and three touchdowns in an Oklahoma win over Michigan, shocking fans throughout Columbus, Ohio, who had no idea such a thing was possible.

2. Utah QB Devon Dampier

After torching UCLA in its opener, Utah beat Cal Poly with ease Saturday, as Dampier accounted for three touchdowns for the second straight week. Unfortunately, because the game happened in Utah, no Heisman voters watched.

3. Florida State QB Tommy Castellanos

One week after running all over Alabama, Castellanos used his arm to torch East Texas A&M, racking up 237 yards and three touchdowns. Normally, the ultraconfident Castellanos would talk a little smack to next week’s opponent to set the stage, but FSU gets Kent State in Week 3 and, honestly, that probably doesn’t feel worth it.

4. Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson

Robertson has thrown for 859 yards and seven touchdowns without a pick through two games — both against upper-tier Power 4 competition. He’s suddenly turning heads among NFL scouts. Also, the drive-thru girl at Whataburger threw in some extra fries the last time he was there.

5. LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier

Nussmeier had a less-than-exciting performance in a 23-7 win over Louisiana Tech, throwing for 237 yards, one touchdown and a pick. It was part of a trend of SEC teams struggling to put away lesser competition Saturday, as Georgia and Texas A&M also waited until late in the second half to secure their wins. At least they’re all not Florida.

Game day notes

In making repeated comments about the disparity between Oregon’s budget and Oklahoma State’s earlier this week, head coach Mike Gundy might have both preempted and prompted what transpired at Autzen Stadium on Saturday.

From kickoff, the Ducks dominated every phase of the game on their way to a commanding 69-3 shellacking of the Cowboys. The way Oregon came out of the gates, stepped on the gas pedal and didn’t take their foot off until they were up 48-3 halfway through the third quarter when they brought in the offensive backups (who still got a touchdown of their own) seemed very purposeful. Not only did the Ducks seem interested in beating Gundy’s team, but also in making a statement.

Oregon did not punt until the fourth quarter (their first punt of the season in two games), and the only drive it had through its first eight that did not end in a score was a turnover on downs in the first quarter. The Ducks had a 59-yard touchdown run on their second offensive play of the game and a 65-yard touchdown pass on their third offensive play of the game. Explosive plays were everywhere at Autzen as the OK State defense provided little to no resistance on the day.

The back-to-back pick-sixes late in the third quarter to take the score of the game from simply overwhelming to outright historic were just salt on the wound. As teams exited the field once the clock hit zero, AC/DC’s “Moneytalks” played over the speakers, fittingly serenading Oklahoma State on its way back to Stillwater.

For the Pokes, it was the kind of performance that might prompt a deeper look at the state of their program. For the Ducks, it was a showcase that showed why, despite losing their starting quarterback, top receiver and elite linemen on both sides of the ball after last season, Oregon still has the depth and talent to be a title contender. — Paolo Uggetti

When Beau Pribula made what he called “an impossible decision” in December to leave Penn State as the Nittany Lions were preparing for the College Football Playoff, he did so to set himself up for days such as Saturday. Pribula left Happy Valley for the opportunity to compete for a starting job elsewhere, quickly landing at Missouri, where starter Brady Cook was out of eligibility.

Coming out of training camp, Mizzou coach Eli Drinkwitz said the quarterback competition between Sam Horn and Pribula would extend into the season, but Pribula inherited the job by default when Horn was injured on his first snap last week. Pribula shined in that game against FCS Central Arkansas, but considering the level of competition, it was hard to read too much into his performance. This week, it was different. With the rivalry against Kansas renewed, Pribula completed 30 of 39 passes for 334 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in the 42-31 win. He looked the part of a quarterback who can successfully lead the Tigers into the SEC gauntlet that awaits.

Considering the circumstances of his departure from Penn State, Pribula’s immediate success must come with an extra layer of satisfaction for him. He would have been stuck behind Drew Allar again at Penn State and now has shown the country he, too, can play at a high level. Pribula’s situation in December was a factor in the recent proposal by the FBS Oversight Committee to move the transfer portal window to January, so it will have less overlap with the playoff. — Kyle Bonagura

Exhale, Horns, Arch is all right. A week after a disappointing performance in a 14-7 loss at Ohio State, Arch Manning got off to a bit of a slow start again on a sleepy, overcast, 11 a.m. Austin kickoff. He started 3-of-6 for 11 yards on the Longhorns’ first two drives, including a badly overthrown ball to Ryan Wingo that could’ve been intercepted if the defender had another step.

But on the next drive on third down, Manning got an easy throw and catch to Parker Livingstone, who turned it upfield as a defender slipped and raced 83 yards for a touchdown. By halftime, Manning was on fire and the rout was on, including three straight touchdown passes on three straight attempts, as Texas scored four touchdowns in 4:56 of game time.

But it wasn’t all smooth for Manning. He heaved an ill-advised throw into double coverage under pressure for an interception at the San Jose 13. He fumbled on a sack at his own 1-yard line in the third quarter but recovered it.

But he came back with a 20-yard touchdown run, tiptoeing down the sideline and showcasing the athletic ability that coach Steve Sarkisian said this week he should embrace.

The Longhorns had too many penalties (12-115), a few dropped passes and some protection problems they’ll need to get fixed before SEC play starts. But the defense held the Spartans in check, forced four turnovers a week after not having one against the Buckeyes, and Manning joined Colt McCoy, Vince Young and David Ash as the only Texas QBs over the past 20 years with two or more games of two 20-plus-yard TD passes and a 20-plus-yard TD run.

Sarkisian said he was pleased with the response by a quarterback who could’ve let his competitiveness linger after last week’s disappointment.

“I think he’s hard on himself differently than maybe I’m hard on him, but I’m also trying to ease some of that,” Sarkisian said. “When he gets hard on himself, I try to back himself off of that and try to make sure he’s got the right amount of confidence when he goes and plays because he’s a very talented player.” — Dave Wilson

Illinois eventually resembled a College Football Playoff contender at Duke, but first it reinforced the importance of being opportunistic and finding new ways to win. The Illini were sluggish in the first quarter and for much of the first half. Their celebrated offensive line couldn’t keep Vincent Anthony Jr. and Duke’s pass rushers away from quarterback Luke Altmyer. A Bret Bielema-coached team surprisingly couldn’t run the ball. At times, Illinois didn’t really look ready.

But the Illini found themselves on the right side of the handful of plays that determine outcomes. Duke’s repeated mistakes on special teams and on offense in Illinois’ end of the field were too many to overcome. Any team that is minus-5 in turnovers on its home field has no business winning.

Still, Illinois had to capitalize and did behind Altmyer, whose experience and talent showed up repeatedly. Altmyer completed 22 of 31 passes for 296 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions, spreading the ball to a largely new group of wide receivers. Illinois certainly misses Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin, but offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. hoped for more explosiveness with this receiving corps and got it, as Hank Beatty, Justin Bowick and others delivered.

Bielema’s championship teams at Wisconsin were built on elite line play and the power run. This Illini squad hasn’t really hit its stride with the run game, and ultimately might be pass-heavy with one of the nation’s more proven quarterbacks in Altmyer and a dynamic group of wideouts. Illinois won’t be able to count on every opponent to make the number of mistakes Duke did, but the Illini now have a track record of taking advantage, which should serve them well during Big Ten play. — Adam Rittenberg

The curse is broken. Matt Campbell and his Cyclones have finally defeated Iowa in Ames for the first time in his tenure. Iowa State’s latest bout with its rival, a 16-13 win, was a nail-biter decided in the final minute as usual.

In securing its first home win over Iowa since 2011, Iowa State has won three of its past four against its in-state foe. Six of the past seven Cy-Hawk winners have scored 20 points or less. It takes a remarkable amount of toughness to survive these low-scoring brawls.

But this might be Campbell’s toughest team yet.

Throughout his tenure, the head coach has fixated on “winning on the margins,” doing all the little things right to overcome any talent deficit and get games into the fourth quarter. These days, the proof is in the results: Iowa State has won eight of its past nine games decided by one-score margins.

Kicker Kyle Konrardy got to be the Cy-Hawk hero yet again, drilling a clutch 54-yard go-ahead field goal in the final two minutes. He got that opportunity thanks to Rocco Becht guiding a 13-play, six-minute drive in the fourth quarter that featured three third-down conversions. Iowa State’s defense finished the job with pass rusher Tamatoa McDonough, a little-known transfer from Yale, slamming Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski down for back-to-back sacks to kill any hopes of a game-winning drive.

“These are milestone moments,” Campbell said. “Our kids, the schedule, what we’ve been up against — real toughness.”

This team had to have the right stuff from the start to pull this off. It took everything the Cyclones had to survive a 24-21 win over Kansas State in Ireland during Week 0. Then they had to come home and figure out how to keep playing their best ball. In many ways, they still haven’t. But what Campbell loves most is the way this Becht-led squad plays with steady resolve, how it can hang in there when things aren’t going its way and keep pushing.

This rivalry win is more proof that this group knows how to win in the fourth quarter — and the Cyclones might be ready to go win the Big 12, too. — Max Olson

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CFP Bubble Watch: Who’s in? Who’s out? Who’s close ahead of first committee ranking?

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November 4, 2025

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CFP Bubble Watch: Who's in? Who's out? Who's close ahead of first committee ranking?

The College Football Playoff selection committee will reveal its first ranking at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday on ESPN, giving us our first look at what the 12-member group thinks about the playoff pecking order after 10 weeks.

It’s far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build — or bust — their résumés.

Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with Would be in status below are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking will look like when it’s released later Tuesday. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve listed teams as Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.

The 12-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies, plus what each team has done to date.

The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’re expected to receive, ranked from the most to least. Check back Tuesday night after the rankings reveal show for an updated bubble watch that will reflect the selection committee’s latest ranking.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels are in a safe spot, but they’re not a lock if they don’t run the table. With remaining games against The Citadel, Florida and at rival Mississippi State, there’s no possibility of a “good loss” remaining, and historically, losing in November has been far more damaging to playoff hopes than losing earlier in the season. Ole Miss shouldn’t lose; it has at least a 72% chance of winning each of its remaining games and has the seventh-best chance in the country (43%) to win out. If an upset occurred, though, the Rebels would join the two-loss club and might not win a debate with other two-loss teams that had more statement wins — and didn’t lose to an unranked opponent. The Rebels’ remaining schedule strength is No. 56 in the country. With a second loss, Ole Miss would be banking on wins against Oklahoma, Tulane and LSU to impress the committee enough for an at-large bid.

First team out: Texas. The Longhorns got a significant boost this week in part because three teams above them fell out — Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami — but also because they earned another CFP top 25 win against the Commodores. The head-to-head win against Oklahoma also could help them with the committee. If Texas is ranked No. 11 or No. 12 by the committee, though — and the ACC and Group of 5 champions are outside of the committee’s top 12 — the Longhorns would be elbowed out during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions, which are guaranteed spots in the playoff.

Still in the mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt. The Sooners earned a huge résumé boost with their win at Tennessee and have what should be a CFP top 25 win against Michigan. For two-loss Vandy, a close road loss to Texas isn’t an eliminator. Where the committee ranks Tennessee after its third loss will impact both of their résumés as a common opponent. Missouri’s lone losses were to Alabama and Vanderbilt, but the Tigers don’t have anything yet to compensate for those. That could change Saturday with a win against Texas A&M.

Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee

Big Ten

Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon

Last team in: Oregon. The one-loss Ducks have a more challenging second half of the season, and the committee is about to learn how good this team truly is. So far, Oregon’s best win was Sept. 13 at Northwestern. The Ducks have been passing the eye test, but their opponents have a winning percentage of 47.2% — ranked No. 116 in the country. The committee will still respect the double-overtime win at Penn State, but also recognize that the Nittany Lions weren’t playing at an elite level even with James Franklin on the sideline. With road trips to Iowa and Washington — both respectable two-loss teams — and a Nov. 22 home game against USC, Oregon has a chance to further entrench itself in the top 12 or tumble out.

First team out: USC. The Trojans’ two losses were on the road to respectable teams (Illinois and Notre Dame) by a combined 12 points. Their best win was Oct. 11 against Michigan, but the Trojans could really boost their résumé this month and completely flip the script with Oregon if they can win in Eugene on Nov. 22. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (17.3%), just ahead of Michigan. The only game they’re not favored to win is Nov. 22 at Oregon. If they can pull off that upset for a 10-2 finish, the committee would definitely consider the Trojans for an at-large spot.

Still in the mix: Iowa, Michigan, Washington. These teams could be ranked by the committee Tuesday night, but Michigan will probably have the shortest climb into the conversation. The head-to-head loss to USC will be a problem in both the Big Ten standings and the CFP ranking, but if USC loses again and their records are no longer comparable, it can be overcome. Then, there’s a head-to-head loss to Oklahoma. Still, Michigan has a 13.2% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The Wolverines still have a chance to beat Ohio State and earn one of the best wins in the country en route to a 10-2 finish.

Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin

Big 12

Would be in: BYU, Texas Tech

Last team in: Texas Tech. If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it’s a CFP lock. The problem is that if the Red Raiders lose a second conference game, they will need some help to reach the Big 12 championship. So, a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU on Saturday, but lose to the Cougars in the Big 12 championship game, Texas Tech would still have a chance at an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. The Red Raiders would be able to claim a win over the eventual Big 12 champs, which would be a much-needed boost to their résumé. It would depend in part on how the game unfolded. The Cougars are the Red Raiders’ only remaining opponent with a winning record, as Texas Tech ends the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).

First team out: Utah. The Utes are in a tricky spot because their two losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — BYU and Texas Tech. Utah still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (22.8%), but will need some help to get there. Utah’s best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but the Utes have a hard time earning an at-large bid without beating at least one of the best teams in their league.

Still in the mix: Cincinnati. The Bearcats are included here because they still have an 18% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics. They have only one league loss, which gives them some slim hope. Their other loss was in the season opener to Nebraska.

Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia

ACC

Would be in: Virginia

Last team in: Virginia. Like Georgia Tech, Virginia also has a road loss to NC State as its lone blemish, but it was an early four-point loss, while the Yellow Jackets lost to the Wolfpack by double digits. Virginia also has a head-to-head win against Louisville. That’s the Hoos’ best win of the season, and likely their only one against a CFP top 25 opponent. That’s why it’s unlikely Virginia is ranked in the top 12 in the initial CFP top 25. Virginia would still be in, though, if it wins the ACC even if it’s ranked outside the committee’s top 12 — just like three-loss Clemson was last year.

First team out: Louisville. The Cardinals lost at home in overtime to Virginia on Oct. 4, but earned a statement win Oct. 17 at Miami. Louisville will probably have only one win this season against a CFP top 25 team, which will make earning an at-large bid difficult. Louisville’s best shot would be to run the table, have teams above the Cardinals lose, and win the ACC. Louisville has a 10.6% chance of winning the ACC, fourth best behind Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia.

Still in the mix: Georgia Tech, Miami. The odds of earning an at-large bid dropped significantly, but any team that has a chance to win its league will have a chance to lock up a playoff spot, and they’re both in contention to play for the ACC title. Georgia Tech has the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (72.3%), followed by Virginia (51.1%) and Miami (28.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Georgia Tech still has the highest chance to win out (40.5%) and win the league (41.2%).

Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Independent

Would be in: Notre Dame. The playoff stars aligned for Notre Dame in Week 10, when Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami all lost, opening the door for the 6-2 Irish to move back into the top 10 after beating Boston College. The question is whether the selection committee will honor Miami’s season-opening 27-24 win against Notre Dame because they have the same record. It’s one of several tiebreakers, but not weighted, and if the committee deems the Irish the better team and not comparable now, Notre Dame can be ranked higher. Notre Dame has the best chance of any team in the country to run the table (68.3%), but the Nov. 15 trip to Pitt will be difficult. The Panthers, winners of five straight, are playing well and have a bye week to prepare for the Irish. The Irish’s playoff position will remain tenuous until the clock runs out at Stanford and they’re 10-2.

Group of 5

Would be in: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn a playoff spot as the committee’s fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. The Tigers’ Oct. 25 win against South Florida was critical in the league race, but the loss to 3-5 UAB is an ink stain on their résumé that can be overcome with a conference title. Memphis has at least a 57% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.

Still in the mix: South Florida, North Texas, James Madison, San Diego State. The committee would consider South Florida’s head-to-head wins against Boise State and North Texas.

Bracket

Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State

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Ohtani, Judge up for consecutive MVP awards

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14 mins ago

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November 4, 2025

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Ohtani, Judge up for consecutive MVP awards

  • Associated Press

Nov 3, 2025, 09:16 PM ET

NEW YORK — Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani and New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge are in the running for consecutive MVP awards.

Ohtani joined Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber and New York Mets outfielder Juan Soto as finalists for the National League honor. Judge, Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh and Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez are in the mix for American League MVP.

Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt and Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy also could be repeat winners when the results are announced next week. Skubal, Houston Astros right-hander Hunter Brown and Boston Red Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet are finalists for the AL Cy Young Award.

Brown secured an extra selection for Houston after the first round in next year’s amateur draft under the collective bargaining agreement’s prospect promotion incentive. He earned the pick because he was among the top 100 prospects from at least two of Baseball America, ESPN and MLB.com heading into the 2023 season, accrued a full season of service in his rookie season and had a top-three finish in Cy Young voting before he became arbitration eligible.

Ohtani is going for his second MVP award with the Dodgers and his fourth overall. He also won with the Angels in 2021 and 2023. Judge is trying for his third MVP win — all with the Yankees.

Ohtani, 31, hit .282 with 55 homers and 102 RBIs in 158 games this year, helping the Dodgers win a second straight World Series championship. The Japanese right-hander also went 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 14 starts in his return to the mound after a second major elbow surgery.

Judge, 33, batted .331 with 53 homers, 114 RBIs and a major league-leading 1.145 OPS in 152 games with New York. He also was voted MVP in 2022.

While Ramírez was terrific once again, the AL MVP race is expected to come down to Judge and Raleigh, a switch-hitting catcher who led the majors with 60 homers for Seattle during the regular season.

The top three finishers in voting for each of the major individual awards presented annually by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America were announced Monday night on MLB Network. Balloting is conducted before the postseason.

World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers is a finalist for the NL Cy Young, along with Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes and Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sanchez. Skenes was the NL Rookie of the Year in 2024.

Atlanta Braves catcher Drake Baldwin, Chicago Cubs pitcher Cade Horton and Brewers infielder Caleb Durbin are competing for top NL rookie this year.

The finalists for AL Rookie of the Year are Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony and the Athletics’ duo of Nick Kurtz and Jacob Wilson. Kurtz hit .290 with 36 homers and 86 RBIs in 117 games for the A’s, and Wilson batted .311 in 125 games.

Vogt was joined by Toronto’s John Schneider and Seattle’s Dan Wilson as finalists for AL Manager of the Year. Philadelphia’s Rob Thomson and Cincinnati’s Terry Francona are in the mix for the NL honor with Murphy.

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Braves promote bench coach Weiss to manager

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14 mins ago

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November 4, 2025

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Braves promote bench coach Weiss to manager

The Atlanta Braves hired Walt Weiss as manager Monday, turning to their longtime bench coach in hopes of a turnaround after they missed the playoffs for the first time in seven years.

Weiss, 61, managed the Colorado Rockies from 2013 to 2016, going 283-365 and never finishing higher than third place. He inherits a talented Braves team that finished 76-86 and was ravaged by injuries.

Atlanta returns a strong core led by former MVP Ronald Acuna Jr, first baseman Matt Olson, third baseman Austin Riley, future star catcher Drake Baldwin and a rotation featuring Chris Sale, Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach. After a fourth-place finish, Atlanta still could be among the favorites in the National League East, with division champion Philadelphia looking at significant changes over the winter, New York trying to rebound from a late-season collapse and Miami still at least a year away from contention.

Weiss emerged as the favorite to take over from Brian Snitker, who led Atlanta to its 2021 World Series title and accepted a senior adviser role with the team after the expiration of his contract following the 2025 season. Weiss joined Atlanta in 2018 as bench coach and had been Snitker’s consigliere since.

A 14-year major leaguer, Weiss was a glove-first shortstop who won a World Series with Oakland in 1989. The Braves will need a new shortstop for the 2026 season after Ha-Seong Kim opted out of his contract Monday.

Much of Atlanta’s team for next season is already in place. Center fielder Michael Harris II, left fielder Jurickson Profar and second baseman Ozzie Albies are slated to return, along with catcher Sean Murphy, who could be traded or split time at catcher and designated hitter with Baldwin. Though Atlanta is flush with starting-pitching options — young right-handers Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, along with right-handers Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder and left-hander Joey Wentz are candidates — its bullpen is a work in progress, with closer Raisel Iglesias headed to free agency this winter.

In a busy offseason of managerial hirings, Weiss was the seventh new manager installed. San Diego and Colorado, which also needs a new head of baseball operations, are the lone teams remaining without a manager.

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