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Oct 7, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

We’re one week into the 2025 MLB playoffs, with two games having now been played in all four division series matchups.

In the small-sample-size world of October baseball, it might seem like that means we’ve seen enough to know a lot. But the reality for a sport that combines 162-game seasons with the chaos of short playoff series is: Things can change in a hurry this time of year.

As we do early in every MLB regular season, we asked our MLB experts to go all-in on one thing they’ve noticed by giving us their boldest prediction for the rest of the postseason based on what they’ve seen so far.

Some of our predictions are quite bold, whereas others took a milder approach. But all of them have a chance of becoming smokin’ hot by the time the World Series trophy is raised this month — or ending up freezing cold.

The themes that we’ll all be talking about

All four division series will go five games

The division series was introduced 30 years ago, and only once, in 2012, did all four of them go the distance. It’ll happen again this year — even though three of the four have already begun with a 2-0 lead.

The gap among the eight remaining playoff contenders feels smaller this year than it has in quite a while, especially with arguably the two best, the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers, squaring off so early. The New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs are perfectly capable of winning back-to-games at home. The series between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, which began with a split in Seattle, seems primed to extend into a fifth game. And though the Phillies have their backs against the wall, coming off two straight losses in Philadelphia, they have the ability to take two in a row at Dodger Stadium — heck, they did it less than a month ago. — Alden Gonzalez

One pitch will decide October

The team that wins the World Series will be the team that has the best differential in performance between throwing splitters and hitting them. Do I know if this will happen? Definitely not! But the proliferation of splitters so far in the postseason has been staggering.

TruMedia has pitch-type data going back to 2008. The percentage of pitches classified as splitters has ranged from 0.2% (2016) to 3.1% (2023). So far this year: 5.7%. The leading practitioners: the Toronto Blue Jays, by far, at 25.9%, mostly thanks to Kevin Gausman and the amazing Trey Yesavage. Incidentally, they were also by far the best-hitting team against splitters in the regular season (.346 WOBA). Guess this means the Jays are going to win it all. — Bradford Doolittle

The success of the splitter this October will make it the most-talked-about pitch in the spring

The eye-opening postseason performances of Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman and Roki Sasaki will serve as jet fuel for the rising popularity of the split-fingered fastball. There was already growing interest in the splitter throughout the 2025 season, thanks to the success of the likes of Hurston Waldrep. Then, along came Yesavage and Gausman and their diving splitters, neutralizing the powerful Yankees: In the first two games of the ALDS, New York was 0-for-22 with 13 strikeouts in at-bats ending with a splitter. The Yankees swung at splitters 39 times and missed 24 times. In a copycat industry, you can bet a ton of pitchers will be tinkering with splitters before next spring, just as hundreds of pitchers adopted cutters because of Mariano Rivera. — Buster Olney

The stars who will shine all postseason

Cal Raleigh will outhomer every other 60-home run hitter in the postseason — combined

The Mariners’ star slugger just became the fifth player to reach the postseason on the heels of a 60-homer season. The others?

1927 Babe Ruth: 2 HR in 4 games
1961 Roger Maris: 1 HR in 5 games
1998 Sammy Sosa: 0 HR in 3 games
2022 Aaron Judge: 2 HR in 9 games

Raleigh didn’t leave the yard in the first two games of the ALDS against Detroit, but he did collect four hits while Julio Rodriguez, batting behind him, supplied the power. Given Seattle’s balance, depth and October path, it’s easy to envision a long run — and with it, at least half a dozen blasts from the Big Dumper. — Paul Hembekides

Jackson Chourio will become the 10th player to win both LCS and World Series MVPs

Why doubt the Milwaukee Brewers now? They’ve enjoyed a magical run to this point and have looked great at the onset of the division series. Chourio has been quite the table-setter — he had three hits in two innings in Game 1 — and he’s one of the game’s budding superstars. This October is his breakout party. — Tristan Cockcroft

Roki Sasaki, Jhoan Duran and Andres Munoz will post nothing but zeros

This trio — two relief aces and a starter-turned-closer for the playoffs — won’t give up an earned run in either the LDS or LCS. Munoz and Duran were two of the top relievers in the sport this year, and Sasaki started looking like one in the past couple of weeks, which my colleague Jeff Passan broke down in his dive into how the Dodgers fixed their flamethrower. — Kiley McDaniel

Roki Sasaki Clayton Kershaw will record the final out of the 2025 World Series

As Dodgers manager Dave Roberts goes game to game in the postseason trying to figure out exactly which relievers he can trust in a big moment, how about this for the ultimate scenario: Kershaw, in his final pitch in the majors, gets that final out. Maybe it’s a save. Maybe it’s a blowout. Maybe the game goes extra innings. Maybe it’s an act of desperation after Roberts uses Roki Sasaki — who’s looking more and more like Roberts’ closer — earlier in the game. And that final pitch? A big, looping 72 mph curveball. — David Schoenfield

The teams that we’ll be watching all October

The Blue Jays will average 10 runs per game in the playoffs

Well, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and pals are certainly off to a great start, but why stop after two blowout wins over the Yankees? The Blue Jays hammered Luis Gil, Max Fried, Will Warren and Luke Weaver. Will Carlos Rodon, Cam Schlittler (maybe, if the series goes to Game 4) and whichever pitchers other remaining teams throw at the Blue Jays do better? Probably, but Vlad Jr., Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, Ernie Clement and eventually Bo Bichette are ready to make history! — Eric Karabell

Toronto won’t lose a game until the World Series

The Blue Jays have enough pitching to win every game on the way to the World Series. So much so that Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt weren’t even needed in the ALDS and were left off the roster. They might be in the ALCS, but even then, Toronto will have choices to make for its rotation. The emergence of rookie Trey Yesavage has changed the calculus for the Jays on the mound, giving them more options than most teams at this time of year.

Add in the potential return of Bichette, Toronto’s great home record (tops in the AL) and a potential long series between the Tigers and Mariners on the other side of the AL bracket, and the Blue Jays are set up for a potential undefeated run to the Fall Classic. Their smoking hot offense might get them there on its own. — Jesse Rogers

The Yankees will send the ALDS back to Toronto

As underwater as they look, the Yankees have a pathway back into this series despite a 2-0 deficit. Shane Bieber, the Blue Jays’ Game 3 starter, is going to fill up the strike zone — and has been homer-prone in recent starts. And with the short porch in right field calling, the Yankees’ left-handed bats will answer. Getting to Game 4 brings Cam Schlittler, who, in his first postseason start, threw eight shutout innings and punched out 12 without walking a batter. Although the Blue Jays are ball-in-play merchants, Schlittler’s stuff is overwhelming enough to quiet them and make for a Game 5 for the ages at Rogers Centre. — Jeff Passan

The Dodgers are going to 2019 Washington Nationals their way through the postseason

Washington rode five starting pitchers and three relievers all the way from the do-or-die wild-card game through its World Series Game 7 victory over the heavily favored Houston Astros. Led by starters Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez, eight pitchers combined to pitch 141⅔ of the Nationals’ 153 playoff innings. Joe Ross, who got a spot start in Game 5 of the World Series, was the fifth starter Washington used.

Those Nationals happened to topple the Dodgers in the NLDS.

This year’s Dodgers, like those Nationals, boast a deep rotation and a shaky bullpen. Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Emmett Sheehan, Roki Sasaki and Alex Vesia should absorb the bulk of the October workload. Of those eight pitchers, only Vesia was primarily a reliever during the regular season. The Nationals proved a version of the formula can work. Six years later, it’s the best recipe for the Dodgers to win a championship. — Jorge Castillo

The Dodgers will sweep their way to a repeat

With 10 hitters who hit double-digit home runs during the regular season, the Dodgers simply don’t have to worry about that one bat going cold. And outside of Yamamoto, none of their pitchers has thrown over 125 innings — but they have such a depth in their rotation that they’ve been able to push some of their starters to the bullpen in October.

It’s all hands on deck in any game they need it. — AJ Mass

The 2025 World Series champion won’t come out of the Dodgers-Phillies NLDS

Ever since the bracket for this postseason was set — even before the Dodgers advanced out of the wild-card series to make the meeting official — there has been a thought percolating that Los Angeles vs. Philadelphia was this year’s true World Series (or at least NLCS) playing out in the division series round. Well, I’m here to tell you that is not a foregone conclusion.

Yes, the Phillies and the Dodgers possess the most talent of any teams in the sport — but that didn’t stop the Brewers from going a combined 10-2 against Philly and L.A. during the regular season. And how about those Blue Jays (the team two of my colleagues predicted very big things for above), or the Mariners, who definitely have the it factor on their side, or the Tigers, who have the best pitcher on the planet (excluding at-bats vs. Jorge Polanco) on theirs.

I’m going to play the percentages here and say someone other than the Phillies or Dodgers will be the last team standing. — Dan Mullen

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No ‘clear-cut’ Cup favorite as Panthers eye No. 3

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October 7, 2025

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No 'clear-cut' Cup favorite as Panthers eye No. 3

Bookmakers across the sportsbook marketplace don’t see a consensus Stanley Cup favorite as the Florida Panthers gear up to attempt a very rare NHL three-peat.

The Carolina Hurricanes, Colorado Avalanche and Edmonton Oilers are the co-favorites (+800) at ESPN BET, with the Dallas Stars, Vegas Golden Knights and Panthers at +900, and the Tampa Bay Lightning at +1000. However, no major American sportsbook has the same combination of solo or co-favorites, with Florida and Vegas taking the top billing at some shops.

“The way I look at it, there’s no real clear-cut, short favorite,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “This year, it’s more wide open at the top, and then you have a whole second tier of teams that are in that 20-to-40 range. There’s another 10 teams there. Could the Stanley Cup winner come from there? Absolutely. But the top tier has eight teams that we believe will contend for the title.”

The last preseason Stanley Cup favorite to win it all was Colorado (+600) in the 2021-22 season.

The Panthers opened as one of the favorites to win the Cup immediately following their second straight championship. They were +600 solo favorites by mid-September following offseason contract extensions for Aaron Ekblad, Brad Marchand and Sam Bennett — despite offseason surgery for superstar Matthew Tkachuk, who is expected back before the new year.

However, a training camp knee injury to captain Aleksander Barkov, which is expected to keep him out for the entire regular season, if not longer, derailed Florida’s Stanley Cup lines at most books. Several operations immediately dropped the team’s championship odds, with ESPN BET briefly lengthening them to +1000.

Still, action on the Cats has remained robust, with ESPN BET reporting its highest portion of bets (17.1%) and handle (21.4%) backing them to three-peat, while BetMGM says the team’s 13.8% handle is the second-highest in the market. Some bookmakers, such as Karry Shreeve, the head of hockey at Caesars Sportsbook, refused to even dethrone the Panthers as favorites, noting that Barkov and Tkachuk’s injuries have more effect on the team’s regular-season odds.

“We’re not ready to drop them in price significantly, at least for the Stanley Cup, just because I’m not convinced who’s going to fill their spot [in the playoffs],” Shreeve told ESPN. “So long as Florida’s getting into the playoffs again, as far as right now, not knowing anything else, they’re still, to me, the favorite. Not by a lot, but still a favorite, and not a team we’re willing to push out in price just yet.”

Several sportsbooks, including DraftKings and ESPN BET, are instead high on the Hurricanes, even though bettors are backing them at a relatively low clip in terms of both the number of tickets and money wagered.

“Carolina is one of the most consistently dominant teams we have seen in recent years, having recouped some talent over the summer as they look to make another deep run,” ESPN BET senior director Adrian Horton said by email. “Patrons will likely have their postseason struggles in mind, but it took the Panthers at full steam to eliminate them. We fully expect Carolina to be back battling in the playoffs.”

In the favorites tier, bettors are more focused on the Avalanche, who have garnered the third-highest handle at BetMGM and ESPN BET. Beyond the first tier, many patrons are keying on the Toronto Maple Leafs (+1600), who have taken the most tickets and money at BetMGM.

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Expert picks for the 2025-26 NHL season: Stanley Cup, division winners, awards

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October 7, 2025

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Expert picks for the 2025-26 NHL season: Stanley Cup, division winners, awards

The 2025-26 NHL season begins Tuesday with a tripleheader on ESPN: Chicago Blackhawks–Florida Panthers at 5 p.m. ET (including the Stanley Cup banner-raising), Pittsburgh Penguins–New York Rangers at 8 p.m., and Colorado Avalanche–Los Angeles Kings at 10:30 p.m.

But we’re looking beyond those contests.

Will the Panthers three-peat as Stanley Cup champions? Which teams will finish the season atop the division standings? And which players will take home the major individual awards?

We’ve gathered our cross-platform ESPN hockey family together to predict the winners of each division, along with the Stanley Cup champion and the players who will win all of the hardware.

Dive deep on all 32 teams
Lapsed fan’s guide to the season
Bold predictions for every club
Fantasy hockey hub page
Goalie mask guide for 2025-26

Atlantic Division

Sean Allen: Maple Leafs
John Buccigross: Lightning
Stormy Buonantony: Lightning
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Maple Leafs
Sach Chandan: Lightning
Meghan Chayka: Lightning
Ryan S. Clark: Lightning
Ray Ferraro: Lightning
Emily Kaplan: Lightning
Tim Kavanagh: Senators
Rachel Kryshak: Lightning
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Lightning
Steve Levy: Maple Leafs
Vince Masi: Lightning
Victoria Matiash: Lightning
Sean McDonough: Lightning
AJ Mleczko: Lightning
Mike Monaco: Lightning
Arda Öcal: Lightning
T.J. Oshie: Lightning
Kristen Shilton: Maple Leafs
P.K. Subban: Lightning
John Tortorella: Panthers
Bob Wischusen: Lightning
Greg Wyshynski: Lightning

Totals: Lightning (19), Maple Leafs (4), Senators (1), Panthers (1)

Metropolitan Division

Sean Allen: Devils
John Buccigross: Hurricanes
Stormy Buonantony: Hurricanes
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Hurricanes
Sach Chandan: Devils
Meghan Chayka: Hurricanes
Ryan S. Clark: Hurricanes
Ray Ferraro: Hurricanes
Emily Kaplan: Hurricanes
Tim Kavanagh: Devils
Rachel Kryshak: Hurricanes
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Hurricanes
Steve Levy: Devils
Vince Masi: Hurricanes
Victoria Matiash: Devils
Sean McDonough: Rangers
AJ Mleczko: Hurricanes
Mike Monaco: Hurricanes
Arda Öcal: Devils
T.J. Oshie: Capitals
Kristen Shilton: Hurricanes
P.K. Subban: Capitals
John Tortorella: Devils
Bob Wischusen: Hurricanes
Greg Wyshynski: Hurricanes

Totals: Hurricanes (15), Devils (7), Capitals (2), Rangers (1)

Central Division

Sean Allen: Stars
John Buccigross: Avalanche
Stormy Buonantony: Avalanche
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Avalanche
Sach Chandan: Avalanche
Meghan Chayka: Avalanche
Ryan S. Clark: Avalanche
Ray Ferraro: Stars
Emily Kaplan: Avalanche
Tim Kavanagh: Avalanche
Rachel Kryshak: Stars
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Stars
Steve Levy: Stars
Vince Masi: Avalanche
Victoria Matiash: Stars
Sean McDonough: Stars
AJ Mleczko: Stars
Mike Monaco: Avalanche
Arda Öcal: Stars
T.J. Oshie: Stars
Kristen Shilton: Stars
P.K. Subban: Wild
John Tortorella: Wild
Bob Wischusen: Avalanche
Greg Wyshynski: Avalanche

Totals: Avalanche (12), Stars (11), Wild (2)

Pacific Division

Sean Allen: Oilers
John Buccigross: Oilers
Stormy Buonantony: Golden Knights
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Golden Knights
Sach Chandan: Golden Knights
Meghan Chayka: Golden Knights
Ryan S. Clark: Golden Knights
Ray Ferraro: Golden Knights
Emily Kaplan: Golden Knights
Tim Kavanagh: Golden Knights
Rachel Kryshak: Oilers
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Golden Knights
Steve Levy: Kings
Vince Masi: Golden Knights
Victoria Matiash: Golden Knights
Sean McDonough: Oilers
AJ Mleczko: Golden Knights
Mike Monaco: Oilers
Arda Öcal: Golden Knights
T.J. Oshie: Golden Knights
Kristen Shilton: Golden Knights
P.K. Subban: Oilers
John Tortorella: Golden Knights
Bob Wischusen: Golden Knights
Greg Wyshynski: Oilers

Totals: Golden Knights (17), Oilers (7), Kings (1)

Stanley Cup

Sean Allen: Panthers
John Buccigross: Hurricanes
Stormy Buonantony: Golden Knights
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Jets
Sach Chandan: Avalanche
Meghan Chayka: Avalanche
Ryan S. Clark: Stars
Ray Ferraro: Golden Knights
Emily Kaplan: Panthers
Tim Kavanagh: Stars
Rachel Kryshak: Stars
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Golden Knights
Steve Levy: Kings
Vince Masi: Avalanche
Victoria Matiash: Golden Knights
Sean McDonough: Oilers
AJ Mleczko: Avalanche
Mike Monaco: Oilers
Arda Öcal: Maple Leafs
T.J. Oshie: Oilers
Kristen Shilton: Stars
John Tortorella: Devils
Bob Wischusen: Panthers
Greg Wyshynski: Avalanche

Totals: Avalanche (5), Golden Knights (4), Stars (4), Panthers (3), Oilers (3), Hurricanes (1), Jets (1), Kings (1), Maple Leafs (1), Devils (1)

Hart Trophy (MVP)

Sean Allen: Kirill Kaprizov
John Buccigross: Connor McDavid
Stormy Buonantony: Jack Eichel
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Connor McDavid
Sach Chandan: Nathan MacKinnon
Meghan Chayka: Nathan MacKinnon
Ryan S. Clark: Kirill Kaprizov
Ray Ferraro: Nikita Kucherov
Emily Kaplan: Nathan MacKinnon
Tim Kavanagh: Nathan MacKinnon
Rachel Kryshak: Connor McDavid
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Nikita Kucherov
Steve Levy: Connor McDavid
Vince Masi: Connor McDavid
Victoria Matiash: Nikita Kucherov
Sean McDonough: Connor McDavid
AJ Mleczko: Connor McDavid
Mike Monaco: Connor McDavid
Arda Öcal: Connor McDavid
T.J. Oshie: Connor McDavid
Kristen Shilton: Auston Matthews
P.K. Subban: Kirill Kaprizov
John Tortorella: Kirill Kaprizov
Bob Wischusen: Connor McDavid
Greg Wyshynski: Nathan MacKinnon

Totals: McDavid (11), MacKinnon (5), Kaprizov (4), Kucherov (3), Eichel (1), Matthews (1)

Art Ross Trophy (points leader)

Sean Allen: Connor McDavid
John Buccigross: Connor McDavid
Stormy Buonantony: Nikita Kucherov
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Connor McDavid
Sach Chandan: Nikita Kucherov
Meghan Chayka: Connor McDavid
Ryan S. Clark: Mitch Marner
Ray Ferraro: Connor McDavid
Emily Kaplan: Nathan MacKinnon
Tim Kavanagh: Nikita Kucherov
Rachel Kryshak: Connor McDavid
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Nikita Kucherov
Steve Levy: Kirill Kaprizov
Vince Masi: Connor McDavid
Victoria Matiash: Nikita Kucherov
Sean McDonough: Connor McDavid
AJ Mleczko: Mitch Marner
Mike Monaco: Connor McDavid
Arda Öcal: Connor McDavid
T.J. Oshie: Nikita Kucherov
Kristen Shilton: Nathan MacKinnon
P.K. Subban: Connor McDavid
John Tortorella: Kirill Kaprizov
Bob Wischusen: Connor McDavid
Greg Wyshynski: Nathan MacKinnon

Totals: McDavid (12), Kucherov (6), MacKinnon (3), Marner (2), Kaprizov (2)

Rocket Richard Trophy (goals leader)

Sean Allen: Auston Matthews
John Buccigross: Auston Matthews
Stormy Buonantony: Connor McDavid
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Auston Matthews
Sach Chandan: Leon Draisaitl
Meghan Chayka: Leon Draisaitl
Ryan S. Clark: Nikita Kucherov
Ray Ferraro: Leon Draisaitl
Emily Kaplan: Leon Draisaitl
Tim Kavanagh: Kirill Kaprizov
Rachel Kryshak: Leon Draisaitl
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Auston Matthews
Steve Levy: Leon Draisaitl
Vince Masi: Brayden Point
Victoria Matiash: Auston Matthews
Sean McDonough: Leon Draisaitl
AJ Mleczko: Auston Matthews
Mike Monaco: Auston Matthews
Arda Öcal: Auston Matthews
T.J. Oshie: Leon Draisaitl
Kristen Shilton: Auston Matthews
P.K. Subban: Jake Guentzel
John Tortorella: Connor McDavid
Bob Wischusen: Auston Matthews
Greg Wyshynski: Leon Draisaitl

Totals: Matthews (10), Draisaitl (9), McDavid (2), Kucherov (1), Kaprizov (1), Point (1), Guentzel (1)

Norris Trophy (best defenseman)

Sean Allen: Cale Makar
John Buccigross: Cale Makar
Stormy Buonantony: Shea Theodore
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Cale Makar
Sach Chandan: Zach Werenski
Meghan Chayka: Cale Makar
Ryan S. Clark: Cale Makar
Ray Ferraro: Quinn Hughes
Emily Kaplan: Zach Werenski
Tim Kavanagh: Quinn Hughes
Rachel Kryshak: Cale Makar
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Cale Makar
Steve Levy: Quinn Hughes
Vince Masi: Quinn Hughes
Victoria Matiash: Quinn Hughes
Sean McDonough: Cale Makar
AJ Mleczko: Quinn Hughes
Mike Monaco: Cale Makar
Arda Öcal: Cale Makar
T.J. Oshie: Cale Makar
Kristen Shilton: Quinn Hughes
P.K. Subban: Lane Hutson
John Tortorella: Quinn Hughes
Bob Wischusen: Cale Makar
Greg Wyshynski: Rasmus Dahlin

Totals: Cale Makar (12), Hughes (8), Werenski (2), Theodore (1), Hutson (1), Dahlin (1)

Vezina Trophy (best goaltender)

Sean Allen: Jake Oettinger
John Buccigross: Jake Oettinger
Stormy Buonantony: Jake Oettinger
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Connor Hellebuyck
Sach Chandan: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Meghan Chayka: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Ryan S. Clark: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Ray Ferraro: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Emily Kaplan: Jake Oettinger
Tim Kavanagh: Jacob Markstrom
Rachel Kryshak: Igor Shesterkin
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Steve Levy: Jake Oettinger
Vince Masi: Linus Ullmark
Victoria Matiash: Andrei Vasilevskiy
Sean McDonough: Igor Shesterkin
AJ Mleczko: Jake Oettinger
Mike Monaco: Jake Oettinger
Arda Öcal: Andrei Vasilevskiy
T.J. Oshie: Connor Hellebuyck
Kristen Shilton: Igor Shesterkin
P.K. Subban: Andrei Vasilevskiy
John Tortorella: Sergei Bobrovsky
Bob Wischusen: Igor Shesterkin
Greg Wyshynski: Andrei Vasilevskiy

Totals: Vasilevskiy (9), Oettinger (7), Shesterkin (4), Markstrom (1), Ullmark (1), Bobrovsky (1)

Calder Trophy (rookie of the year)

Sean Allen: Alexander Nikishin
John Buccigross: Ivan Demidov
Stormy Buonantony: Ivan Demidov
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Ivan Demidov
Sach Chandan: Michael Misa
Meghan Chayka: Ivan Demidov
Ryan S. Clark: Ivan Demidov
Ray Ferraro: Ivan Demidov
Emily Kaplan: Zeev Buium
Tim Kavanagh: Jimmy Snuggerud
Rachel Kryshak: Ivan Demidov
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Ivan Demidov
Steve Levy: Zeev Buium
Vince Masi: Jimmy Snuggerud
Victoria Matiash: Jimmy Snuggerud
Sean McDonough: Ivan Demidov
AJ Mleczko: Zeev Buium
Mike Monaco: Ivan Demidov
Arda Öcal: Yaroslav Askarov
T.J. Oshie: Ryan Leonard
Kristen Shilton: Ivan Demidov
P.K. Subban: Matthew Schaefer
John Tortorella: Ryan Leonard
Bob Wischusen: Ivan Demidov
Greg Wyshynski: Alexander Nikishin

Totals: Demidov (12), Buium (3), Snuggerud (3), Nikishin (2), Leonard (2), Misa (1), Askarov (1), Schaefer (1)

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Breaking down Aaron Judge’s early playoff performance: A productive start or another October disappointment?

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October 7, 2025

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Breaking down Aaron Judge's early playoff performance: A productive start or another October disappointment?

  • Kiley McDanielOct 7, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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    • ESPN MLB Insider
    • Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency.
    • Has worked for three MLB teams.
      • Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’

In case you hadn’t heard, Aaron Judge entered the 2025 MLB playoffs with a checkered history of October results compared with his stellar regular-season résumé.

For his career, Judge’s OPS is 250 points lower in the postseason than in the regular season (the average regular-season-to-playoff OPS dropoff for hitters in 2024 was 18 points), and his struggles on the biggest stage have become a talking point nearly every October.

After his .184/.344/.408 slash line during the Yankees’ 2024 postseason run, Judge is hitting objectively well in the playoffs this year — posting a 1.024 OPS and collecting an MLB-leading eight hits in his first five games. But he isn’t hitting for much power, with just one extra-base hit (a double) in 21 plate appearances, and his team enters Game 3 of the American League Division Series on the brink of elimination.

As the Yankees try to battle back against the Toronto Blue Jays, we dug deep into each of Judge’s first 18 at-bats (and three walks) to see what we can learn about his October so far.

How is Judge being pitched in the playoffs? Is it different from the regular season? Why isn’t he hitting for power? Is it bad luck? And where could his postseason go from here — if the Yankees can stick around long enough for him to find his home run stroke?

How left-handed pitchers are approaching Judge

Judge vs. lefties in playoff career: 42 PA, .400/.500/.714, 19% K, 17% BB, 3 HR
Judge vs. lefties this postseason: 8 PA, .500/.500/1.125, 13% K, 0% BB, 0 HR

Each pitcher has different strengths, but there are some clear trends that lefties are following when attacking Judge this month.

The game plan goes something like this: throw hard stuff (four-seam fastballs, sinkers, cutters) on his hands, largely down, then mix in softer stuff to keep him honest, locating those pitches down and on the corners — where he is least likely to do damage. If you miss, miss outside of the zone, not toward the middle. Don’t be afraid to nibble around the outside of the zone and live to fight another day.

That’s a solid plan against almost any hitter, but in this case, it means going hard inside against a 6-foot-7 slugger whose relative weaknesses will always include covering the plate against good stuff.

It’s telling that the two softer-throwing lefties Judge faced (Boston’s Connelly Early and Toronto’s Justin Bruihl) threw two fastballs out of their 10 total pitches and both missed off the plate inside, one missing so far inside that it hit Judge. Garrett Crochet, Aroldis Chapman, and Brendon Little were much more aggressive, likely because of their better fastballs.

How right-handed pitchers are approaching Judge

Judge vs. righties in playoff career: 241 PA, .192/.304/.409, 34% K, 13% BB, 13 HR
Judge vs. righties this postseason: 13 PA, .400/.538/.400, 23% K, 15% BB, 0 HR

Judge has faced eight different righties this postseason, and those pitchers vary vastly in their pitch mix and the quality of their stuff, but right-handed pitchers seem to be using a decision tree to craft their game plan against him.

If the righty’s top offspeed pitch is a breaking ball (slider, sweeper, curve) then he is throwing that as often as he can while locating it down and away — and mixing it with fastballs inside to keep Judge from leaning over the plate. Here’s a look at Judge vs. breaking balls only.

If the righty’s top secondary pitch is a splitter — such as Toronto’s Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage in the first two games of the ALDS — then he is mixing splitters and sliders away with some fastballs that are mostly targeted inside.

But no matter their style, one common goal for all of these pitchers is not to make a mistake over the plate!

How does Judge’s regular-season history factor into this plan?

Though Judge’s October struggles have become a narrative over his career, any team setting up its pitching strategy for a series will game plan for the two-time American League MVP with a career 1.028 OPS and 368 home runs rather than treating him like the player with a .223 average and .787 OPS in 63 career playoff games.

And that starts with keeping the ball away from where Judge can do the most damage.

During the 2025 regular season, Judge faced 176 pitches (essentially one pitch every four plate appearances) that qualified as in the middle-middle zone — or, in more general speak, right down the middle.

Against those pitches, Judge had a 1.630 OPS and 15 homers, both figures were second best in baseball.

This is where Judge ranked, among all qualified hitters in MLB this season, measured by xwOBA:

  • Second best vs. middle-middle pitches

  • Best vs. pitches in the heart of the zone (a larger part of the strike zone than middle-middle)

  • Best per pitch vs. fastballs, second in overall value

  • Best per pitch and overall vs. sinkers

  • Best per pitch and overall vs. cutters

Imagine getting this scouting report as a pitcher before you face Judge in a playoff game. I wouldn’t throw him anything down the middle, either.

How Judge is handling pitches he should crush

Now for the twist: Judge has faced seven pitches in the playoffs that were in the middle-middle zone (one pitch every three plate appearances, so slightly more frequently than the regular season).

So far this postseason, Judge hasn’t put one of those pitches in play. He swung at five — fouled off four and whiffed at another — and took two middle-middle pitches for strikes.

This isn’t a trend I tried to identify in my research because the small sample means one home run on a center-cut ball would poke a hole in it, but in watching all of his playoff at-bats, I made too many of this sort of note: “target was [zone direction] corner, missed target to the middle of the zone, [nothing bad happened to the pitcher].”

So, yes, it’s a small sample, but October baseball is won and lost on small samples. Judge is getting pitched roughly how he was in the regular season (actually even a bit more hitter-friendly), but he hasn’t replicated his regular-season damage, especially when it comes to punishing mistakes thrown down the middle. Judge has performed basically the same (chase rate, xwOBA, etc.) as the regular season against noncenter-cut pitches, so not taking advantage of these mistakes is accounting for his dip in power in the playoffs this year.

Over 162 games, anyone putting up an OPS over 1.000 is having a very productive season — even if it’s all coming from singles and a few doubles — but the heat has been turned up with the Yankees facing elimination, and the offense needs to deliver, with Judge at the heart of it. This team needs Judge to punish mistakes and create some souvenirs or he is at risk of having another October disappointment added to his résumé.

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