SEC showdowns! The Jeweled Shillelagh! Toss-ups everywhere! Week 8 is loaded!
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Bill Connelly
How do you take a typical big October Saturday and make it even better? By making every big game a toss-up.
Week 8 of the college football season gives us four ranked-versus-ranked battles — an enormous SEC tripleheader and Notre Dame-USC. My SP+ ratings project all four games to finish within 3.1 points. Then, there’s the Holy War (BYU-Utah), too. All in all, there are 60 FBS games this weekend, and 32 are projected within one score. We should get at least a couple of classics among the big games, and the thing that separates college football Saturdays from anything else — sheer depth of action — should be on overwhelming display.
There are stakes, too! The SEC race is a giant, puddly mess and should achieve only so much clarity Saturday. Notre Dame-USC could be a College Football Playoff eliminator of sorts (and, oh yeah, it might be the last Notre Dame-USC game for a while). The Big 12 and ACC each have a couple of huge, title-related games, and we’ve got hierarchy-establishing battles in the Sun Belt and Mountain West.
It’s a lot! Let’s make some sense of it! Here’s everything you need to follow in a blood pressure-unfriendly Week 8.
All times are ET and are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.
The SEC tripleheader of Greg Sankey’s dreams
The SEC has no team in the current SP+ top four, but it has eight of the next nine and 10 of the top 19. The conference title race and the race for playoff spots are up for grabs, especially if Alabama stops producing loads of close-game magic.
On Saturday, the league gets the tripleheader of its dreams: Three ranked-versus-ranked battles, all relative toss-ups. The results could establish a bit of a hierarchy within the conference, or they could make things even messier. (As always, I root for the latter.)
No. 5 Ole Miss at No. 9 Georgia (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Last year, Georgia muscled its way to the SEC title, boasting less upside than we’re used to seeing but grinding out victories. But the Dawgs’ high floor was no match for Ole Miss’ high ceiling: The Rebels dominated the line of scrimmage and posted a shockingly easy 28-10 win; it was Georgia’s worst loss since 2019.
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Highlight: No. 16 Rebels keep playoff hopes alive with win vs. No. 3 Georgia
Ole Miss wins the turnover battle, highlighted by stripping the ball from the Bulldogs in the final minutes to solidify a 28-10 win and stay relevant for the College Football Playoff.
If Georgia starts slowly again, Ole Miss might lay down the hammer again. UGA trailed Auburn by 10 points in the first quarter, Alabama by 14 in the second and Tennessee by 14 in the first. That Gunner Stockton and the Dawgs fought back to win two of those three is another reminder that Kirby Smart teams will always be tough as hell. But they lost to Bama, and they might not be able to afford more than one additional defeat. At some point, they have to play well.
Ole Miss messed around last week, stumbling through early miscues and needing a late stop to beat Washington State 24-21. Maybe the Rebels were looking ahead to UGA? This is a pretty big game, and not only because the Rebels haven’t won in Athens since 1996. They’re one of only two remaining unbeatens in the parity-soaked SEC, and a win here would put them in excellent position to reach their first SEC championship game.
Georgia holds the advantages on the ground, while Ole Miss controls the air.
When Georgia has the ball
Yards per carry (not inc. sacks): Georgia offense 79th, Ole Miss defense 106th
Yards per dropback: Ole Miss defense 36th, Georgia offense 59th
When Ole Miss has the ball
Yards per carry: Georgia defense sixth, Ole Miss offense 63rd
Yards per dropback: Ole Miss offense fifth, Georgia defense 64th
Georgia should exploit Ole Miss’ shoddy run defense, but the Rebels could counter that with a big passing advantage. Trinidad Chambliss distributes the ball well to five or six receivers, and even after playing against Auburn’s destitute passing game, Georgia still ranks 117th in sack rate. Chambliss will likely have time to find open guys.
Current line: UGA -7.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 1.8 | FPI projection: UGA by 5.3
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama (7:30 p.m., ABC)
One of my go-to measures is postgame win expectancy. It takes a look at the predictive stats a game produces — the stuff that feeds into SP+ — and says, “With these stats, Team A would have won this game X% of the time.” It’s a good way of measuring if a team is winning in a sustainable way or if good fortune is involved.
In wins over both Georgia and Missouri, Alabama’s postgame win expectancy was under 30%. The Crimson Tide handily lost the explosiveness battle against UGA and was both less efficient and less explosive than Mizzou, but won both games with the right combination of clutch-play success. That’s tough to sustain over a long season, though Kalen DeBoer’s 2023 Washington team did just that while reaching the national title game. If you have the right quarterback play and close-game execution, you can pull one over on the stat gods for a little while. The stat gods always get their comeuppance — as in 2024, when DeBoer’s Bama looked like an 11-win team on paper but went 9-4 — but you can ride it out for a bit.
The close games probably aren’t going to stop. Of Bama’s next six games, five are projected within 8.1 points. The Tide will require a lot more of what we saw against Missouri, when Ty Simpson didn’t produce dazzling stats (23 completions for 200 yards with four sacks) but completed some brilliant passes on third- and fourth-and-long.
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Missouri Tigers: Full Highlights
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Missouri Tigers: Full Highlights
Simpson has gotten help from running back Jam Miller of late, though he is questionable for Saturday (concussion protocol). The defense got carved up on a couple of drives but controlled Mizzou for a large run in the middle of the game.
Tennessee is in pretty good shape, playoff-wise; the 5-1 Vols are projected favorites in each game after this. But their defense, so excellent last year, ranks just 78th in points allowed per drive. Luckily for the Vols, they’re 12th on offense. They are efficient via run and pass, and RB DeSean Bishop and WRs Chris Brazzell II and Mike Matthews are big-play machines. But if Simpson made key passes against Georgia’s and Mizzou’s defenses, it’s pretty hard to see Tennessee stopping the Tide when it counts.
Current line: Bama -7.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 2.2 | FPI projection: Bama by 6.1
No. 10 LSU at No. 17 Vanderbilt (noon, ABC)
LSU’s defense, problematic for years, has allowed more than 10 points just once, combining great pass coverage with great ball pursuit and allowing the 5-1 Tigers to mostly overcome their worst offense of the Brian Kelly era. Vandy, meanwhile, won its first five games by an average of 32 points before red zone turnovers spoiled an upset bid against Bama. The Commodores’ defense is unexceptional, but the offense ranks second nationally in success rate. Quarterback Diego Pavia keeps the offense moving (and grinds out some hard rushing yards), while running backs Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young are averaging 7.5 yards per carry.
Close games will determine the SEC’s CFP bids; five of Vandy’s last six games are projected within 6.5 points, per SP+, and four of LSU’s last six are within 4.5. The loser of this one will likely have spent its final mulligan and will have to win a lot of coin-flip games to stay in the hunt.
Current line: Vandy -2.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 0.4 | FPI projection: Vandy by 2.7
For the Jeweled Shillelagh (and playoff hopes)
No. 20 USC at No. 13 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC)
I’m struggling to get past the idea that we might lose Notre Dame-USC, at least for a little while, for embarrassingly silly reasons. Just in case sanity doesn’t prevail, we deserve a barn burner Saturday night.
In a rivalry based on long-term momentum swings, Notre Dame has held the advantage for most of the past 15 years, but this one appears relatively even on paper. Since losing its first two games by a combined four points — both to current top-five teams (Miami and Texas A&M) — Notre Dame has won four games by an average of 30. The defense had big-play issues early on but has allowed 27 total points in the past three weeks and should keep improving now that corner Leonard Moore is healthy again.
Quarterback CJ Carr has been absolutely dynamite. Despite being a redshirt freshman, and despite substandard performance from the offensive line — which has allowed quite a few negative run plays and merely average pressure numbers — he’s 11th in Total QBR. On third-and-7 or more, Notre Dame ranks second nationally with a 44% conversion rate. Carr’s ceiling is spectacularly high.
Of course, USC’s Jayden Maiava ranks first in Total QBR. He’s completing 72% of his passes at 15.1 yards per completion. That’s quite the high-end combination.
Maiava has done plenty of damage against bad defenses, but the Trojans topped 30 points against Illinois and Michigan, too. It helps to have a run game you can lean on, and USC’s might be the most underrated in the country. Backs Waymond Jordan, Eli Sanders and King Miller have combined to average 191.7 yards per game and 7.0 per carry. Jordan and Sanders got hurt against Michigan — they’re both likely out Saturday — so Miller, a walk-on redshirt freshman, went for 158 yards. That says great things about the O-line, especially considering it has been battling some injuries.
That leaves the USC defense. A consistent liability in Lincoln Riley’s nine years as a head coach, the Trojans have been mostly solid this year, but they got beat for some long passes against Michigan State and Illinois. That will probably happen Saturday, too, but if they can hold the Irish to 31 points or so, Maiava & Co. could top that.
Current line: Irish -9.5 (up from -7.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Irish by 3.1 | FPI projection: Irish by 5.1
This week in the Big 12
There’s nothing I enjoy more than a nice, silly Big 12 title race, and Texas Tech’s current dominance levels suggest at least half of the Big 12 championship game matchup is as good as settled. That could change, obviously, but when you lose your quarterback to injury twice in three games and extend your lead by 20-plus points in both games, you’re proving something. We’ll see if the Red Raiders can keep proving something against the defending conference champs.
Regardless of Tech’s dominance, there are two spots available in Jerry World, and the fight for the other spot (at least) is up for grabs. The winner of Saturday night’s Holy War in Provo, Utah, will become the favorite to land that one.
No. 7 Texas Tech at Arizona State (4 p.m., Fox)
Arizona State was hit-and-miss early last season, then lost a game with quarterback Sam Leavitt injured. That summarizes this season as well. Leavitt should return after missing last week’s loss to Utah, and if the Sun Devils hit the gas like last year, everything’s still on the table.
Last week was pretty demoralizing, though. Leavitt’s presence wouldn’t have done much to stop Utah from scoring touchdowns on six of seven possessions. The Sun Devils rank 71st in points per drive and 94th in points allowed; they simply might not have enough to offer.
A few weeks ago, Texas Tech pushed around Utah just like the Utes did to ASU. Even if quarterback Behren Morton (questionable) can’t go, Will Hammond has played well — he isn’t as consistent a passer, but he offers far more with his legs. And either way, ASU still has to score on a defense ranked fifth in points allowed per drive and featuring two of the best defenders in college football (linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and edge rusher David Bailey).
Current line: Tech -7.5 (down from -10.5) | SP+ projection: Tech by 15.5 | FPI projection: Tech by 7.3
No. 23 Utah at No. 15 BYU (8 p.m., Fox)
Utah has responded as well as possible to the blowout loss to Tech. Outmuscled at the line of scrimmage by the Red Raiders, the Utes have done all the pushing since, walloping West Virginia and Arizona State by a combined 90-24. They aren’t creating many big plays — an issue for years — but quarterback Devon Dampier & Co. are second in rushing success rate and eighth in passing success rate. BYU’s defense also is pretty efficient, though the Cougars have allowed an increasing point total in every game this season. At some point, that becomes an obvious problem, but this is the second-best defense Utah has faced.
Of course, Utah’s defense is by far the best Bear Bachmeier has faced. The unbeaten BYU freshman quarterback came through with his legs in last week’s comeback win over Arizona, but he also went 12-for-29 passing with two interceptions. Utah’s defense is awesome at the front (where end John Henry Daley is a breakout star) and back (where the Utes rank sixth in completion rate allowed).
Current line: Utah -3.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 0.5 | FPI projection: BYU by 0.3
The ACC title race takes shape, too
As with Texas Tech in the Big 12, Miami’s fast start has established a clear front-runner in the ACC title race. But two teams will make the ACC championship game, and five are unbeaten early in ACC play (Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia and SMU). They’re among six teams, along with Louisville, who have at least a 7% chance at the conference title, per SP+.
Conveniently, four of those six teams are playing head-to-head this weekend.
Louisville at No. 2 Miami (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN)
Louisville is 4-1 and a projected favorite in six of its last seven games. The Cardinals appear likely to post at least nine wins for the third straight time under Jeff Brohm. The defense has been excellent, and running back Isaac Brown remains one of the most explosive in college football.
The Cardinals still feel pretty disappointing this season, though, at least on offense. Brown and Duke Watson have been slowed because of injuries, and quarterback Miller Moss struggled on several dropbacks in their loss to Virginia. The offensive line is allowing loads of negative plays. All’s forgiven if they win Friday night, but they’ll have to raise their game.
This is about where things went awry for a fast-starting Miami team in 2024, but with Rueben Bain Jr. and Mohamed Toure anchoring a far more stable defense and the offensive line living up to hype, the Hurricanes don’t seem interested in allowing that to happen again. Granted, the offense hasn’t been quite as effective as it has gotten credit for, mainly due to a lack of explosiveness — they’re 13th in success rate but just 126th in yards per successful play. Carson Beck hasn’t been amazing on third downs either, and if Louisville can knock the Hurricanes off schedule, the Cardinals’ dynamite pass rush could impact the game. But Louisville will still need to steer out of the mud and start scoring points.
Current line: Miami -13.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 7.9 | FPI projection: Miami by 12.4
No. 12 Georgia Tech at Duke (noon, ESPN)
In Duke’s first big home game of 2025, the Blue Devils suffered five turnovers against Illinois in a 45-19 loss. They won a majority of the game’s plays but were on the wrong end of all the catastrophes. (They seemed to let that loss beat them the next week, too, falling behind 24-3 to Tulane before losing by seven.)
Now comes another big home game. The Blue Devils have won their first three conference games by an average of 43-19, and Darian Mensah, responsible for three of those five Illinois turnovers, has been increasingly dominant.
Georgia Tech has drifted a bit in the other direction. The Yellow Jackets remain unbeaten, but after early wins over Colorado and Clemson, they’ve underachieved against SP+ projections for three straight games. They can still run the heck out of the ball with QB Haynes King and RBs Jamal Haynes and Malachi Hosley, but they are struggling to knock opponents off schedule and rush the passer. Duke can defend the run and stay on schedule beautifully.
Current line: Duke -1.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 0.3 | FPI projection: Duke by 2.9
A pair of elimination games (of sorts) in the Group of 5
Per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, five Group of 5 teams have at least a 5% chance of reaching the CFP: Memphis (43%), USF (30%), Tulane (11%), UNLV (8%) and Boise State (6%). Memphis and USF have easier games that were relegated to the Playlist below, but BSU and UNLV face off, and a maddening Tulane takes on an Army team capable of just about anything.
UNLV at Boise State (3:30 p.m., FS1)
Since the start of 2023, UNLV is 26-8 — 0-3 against Boise State and 26-5 against everyone else. Is this the year the Rebels finally clear the Boise hurdle?
BSU’s four wins and two losses have come by an average of 24 points. Either it has all worked or it all hasn’t — that’s how things go when your offense is inefficient but explosive and you make sure your opponents are the same. The Broncos make every game a big-play contest.
UNLV is all-or-nothing in a different way: all offense, no defense. The Rebels are averaging more than 38 points per game but allowing nearly 30. They seek turnovers to an almost self-destructive degree and give up 6.3 yards per play. But with quarterback Anthony Colandrea, running back Jai’Den Thomas and receiver Jaden Bradley, they can keep up with anyone in a big-play contest.
Current line: BSU -12.5 (up from -10.5) | SP+ projection: BSU by 7.0 | FPI projection: BSU by 5.7
Army at Tulane (noon, ESPNU)
“We’re a really sloppy football team that finds ways to win games. And I’m going to lose my mind because we’re so immature. We’ve got to grow up fast.” That’s what Tulane’s Jon Sumrall said after last week’s narrow 26-19 win over East Carolina, and, well, that about summed it up. The Green Wave boast major upside and two power-conference wins, they’ve been inconsistent and have slipped to 64th in SP+. But they’re still 5-1! If they shift into gear, they could easily be in the CFP.
Army lost to Tarleton State and got blown out by ECU but also beat Kansas State and won its past two games by 35 combined points. The Black Knights can’t even slightly pass, but they don’t lose yards and the defense prevents big plays. Can Tulane summon maturity and move to 6-1?
Current line: Tulane -9.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 7.8 | FPI projection: Tulane by 11.2
Week 8 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. And we’re in a funk! The sport has had plenty of chaos, but the superfecta’s gone 0-3 since a 3-1 start.
It’s time to rectify that by taking down a Big Ten favorite. SP+ says there’s only a 32% chance that Maryland (72% win probability over UCLA), Nebraska (74% over Minnesota), Oregon (85% over Rutgers) and Indiana (95% over Michigan State) all win. It’s rally time!
Week 8 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives. (Don’t worry, I’m not trying to convince you to watch Iowa-Penn State. Our relationship means too much to me to do that to you.)
Friday evening
No. 25 Nebraska at Minnesota (8 p.m., Fox). Two fun, young QBs — Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola and Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey — have, with help from top-30 defenses, led their teams to a combined 9-3 record, but Nebraska is looking for more. The Huskers have a 30% chance at a 10-2 finish or better, per SP+; that would be their first such season in ages and would theoretically insert them into the playoff race.
Current line: Nebraska -8.5 (up from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Nebraska by 10.2 | FPI projection: Nebraska by 7.2
North Carolina at California (10:30 p.m., ESPN). North Carolina got a bye week to read all those “How it’s all gone wrong for Bill Belichick” stories. This is one of only two remaining games in which they’re not projected as a double-digit underdog. If they can’t get past Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Cal — also coming off a bye week — they might not get past anyone.
Current line: Cal -10.5 | SP+ projection: Cal by 8.7 | FPI projection: Cal by 7.5
Early Saturday
No. 14 Oklahoma at South Carolina (12:45 p.m., SECN). OU rushed John Mateer back to action, but he was rusty and overwhelmed against Texas. South Carolina’s defense has stabilized significantly and could offer resistance, but at some point, the Gamecocks’ offense, currently 123rd in points per drive, needs to show up. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers isn’t getting much help, but he’s not helping himself enough, either.
Current line: OU -5.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 8.8 | FPI projection: OU by 1.1
Washington at Michigan (noon, Fox). I’m still confused by the lack of pollster love for 5-1 Washington. The unranked Huskies got far fewer AP votes than either two-loss Illinois or two-loss Michigan, but they can theoretically rectify that with a win in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines’ offense has no-showed in both losses, but Washington games can turn into track meets pretty easily.
Current line: Michigan -6.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 2.4 | FPI projection: Michigan by 4.5
Baylor at TCU (noon, ESPN2). The Revivalry is a Last Chance Saloon situation for a TCU team just 1-2 in Big 12 play. It’s probably noteworthy that BU’s Sawyer Robertson and TCU’s Josh Hoover will be passing against defenses that rank 103rd and 101st, respectively, in yards allowed per dropback. This game better have at least 70 combined points. (It did last year.)
Current line: TCU -2.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 7.8 | FPI projection: TCU by 3.2
Saturday afternoon
No. 4 Texas A&M at Arkansas (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Texas A&M has mastered the art of simply sitting on games, leaning heavily on a dynamite offensive line and pass rush and waiting for opponents to fall over. Arkansas just lights every game on fire; the Razorbacks have scored at least 31 points in five games and allowed at least 32 in four straight. They’ve almost beaten three ranked teams now — they’re dangerous, if self-destructive, underdogs.
Current line: A&M -7.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 9.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 5.4
SMU at Clemson (3:30 p.m., ACCN). After terribly disappointing September campaigns, both Clemson and SMU — last year’s ACC championship game competitors — have stabilized with a pair of comfortable ACC wins. Clemson has been a bit more demonstrative, but the Tigers, at 2-2 in the ACC, are playing from behind; with a slight upset, SMU would be 3-0 in ACC play and back in the title conversation.
Current line: Clemson -9.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 4.4 | FPI projection: Clemson by 3.3
Mississippi State at Florida (4:15 p.m., SECN). Mississippi State got a bye week after its disappointing performance against Texas A&M. Florida acquitted itself slightly better against the Aggies last Saturday, but after that ultra-physical affair, the Gators will have to deal with the ultra-fast MSU attack. Can they get receiver Dallas Wilson, the hero of the Texas game, going again?
Current line: Florida -9.5 | SP+ projection: Florida by 2.6 | FPI projection: Florida by 4.4
Old Dominion at James Madison (3:30 p.m., ESPNU). This one was looking like it might be the G5 game of the week, but JMU’s offense underachieved for a second straight game in a narrower-than-expected win over Louisiana, and ODU self-destructed with five turnovers and three turnovers on downs in a huge loss to Marshall. This is still huge for Sun Belt East title purposes, at least.
Current line: JMU -1.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 5.4 | FPI projection: ODU by 0.8
No. 22 Memphis at UAB (4 p.m., ESPN2). Granted, there could be some UCLA-style, nothing-to-lose vibes from a UAB team that just fired coach Trent Dilfer. But that’s the only reason to think this one will be close. Memphis is running the ball brilliantly, and the Tigers’ defense is playing its best ball in more than a decade.
Current line: Memphis -22.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 27.0 | FPI projection: Memphis by 25.7
Michigan State at No. 3 Indiana (3:30 p.m., Peacock). Granted, UCLA went from winless and hopeless to genuinely exciting overnight, so anything’s possible, but the team UCLA smoked last week — Michigan State — is also looking awfully hopeless. The most interesting thing about this one might be how Indiana responds to its greatest week of news clippings ever. Can the Hoosiers remain focused?
Current line: IU -27.5 | SP+ projection: IU by 26.4 | FPI projection: IU 26.9
UTSA at North Texas (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). North Texas let a huge opportunity slip through its fingers last week thanks to a 3½-minute, 28-0 run by USF in a 63-36 loss to the Bulls. Can the Mean Green avoid a hangover and remain in the American Conference race by taking care of an all-or-nothing UTSA and its all-or-nothing run game (Robert Henry Jr. and Will Henderson III: 1,004 yards at 7.3 per carry)?
Current line: UNT -3.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: UNT by 4.3 | FPI projection: UNT by 2.0
No. 1 Ohio State at Wisconsin (3:30 p.m., CBS). I can’t believe Wisconsin is making Luke Fickell coach this game before firing him.
Current line: OSU -25.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 25.4 | FPI projection: OSU by 23.4
Saturday evening
No. 16 Missouri at Auburn (7:45 p.m., SECN). Missouri had a golden opportunity to beat Alabama but couldn’t get the job done. If the Tigers rebound well, the CFP is still in play, but they can’t fall victim to Auburn’s nonsense. Hugh Freeze’s Tigers defended well enough to play Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Georgia achingly close but didn’t have the offense to seal the deal. Will they ever?
Current line: Mizzou -1.5 (flipped from Auburn -2.5) | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 5.5 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 0.7
No. 6 Oregon at Rutgers (6:30 p.m., BTN). Rutgers quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis is on pace for 3,500 passing yards, and the Scarlet Knights have scored at least 28 points in five of six games. This is an offense capable of leading an upset, but the RU defense is just about Greg Schiano’s worst ever. Think that might hinder them against Dante Moore and the ridiculously efficient Oregon offense?
Current line: Oregon -17.5 (up from -14.5) | SP+ projection: Oregon by 16.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 11.6
No. 21 Texas at Kentucky (7 p.m., ESPN). Kentucky might be a lost cause at this point — per SP+, the Wildcats’ odds of losing out (4%) aren’t that much lower than their odds of bowling (11%). But they defend the run pretty well and pressure quarterbacks. Either Arch Manning makes good plays against a bad secondary, or Kentucky gets enough stops to make this interesting.
Current line: Texas -12.5 | SP+ projection: Texas by 14.8 | FPI projection: Texas by 10.6
Washington State at No. 18 Virginia (6:30 p.m., The CW). The transfer-driven UVA offense, led by QB Chandler Morris and RB J’Mari Taylor, has scored 30-plus points every week. The Wazzu defense, meanwhile, is confusing: The Cougs have allowed 59 points twice but have allowed 12.5 points per game in their four other games. The Hoos should handle this one, but Wazzu nearly stunned Ole Miss last week.
Current line: UVA -17.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 13.8 | FPI projection: UVA by 18.9
Florida Atlantic at No. 19 USF (7:30 p.m., ESPNU). This should be the fastest game of the week. In terms of seconds per play, USF ranks first and FAU ranks third. USF is faster, but four FAU games have topped 66 combined points. Even if this is an easy win for the Bulls, it should be pretty prolific.
Current line: USF -21.5 | SP+ projection: USF by 17.4 | FPI projection: USF by 19.6
Late Saturday
Florida State at Stanford (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Florida State’s defense has underachieved for a while now, and the offense has slipped just enough to make that costly. The Noles have lost three games in a row, but while playing at Stanford requires a cross-country trip, it should be a get-right opportunity. The Cardinal’s most likely record right now? 3-9, which was their record the past four seasons.
Current line: FSU -18.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 19.3 | FPI projection: FSU by 11.1
Smaller-school showcase
Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track. (Yes, I’m giving you a week off from the WIAC race in Division III, even though No. 4 Wisconsin-La Crosse at No. 14 Wisconsin-Platteville should be pretty fantastic. Actually, watch that one too.)
NAIA: No. 7 Lindsey Wilson at No. 9 Campbellsville (12:30 p.m., YouTube). Led by prolific rusher Davontaye Saunders, LWU holds the No. 1 ranking in NAIA SP+, but the Blue Raiders should face a stiff test in the Battle of Highway 55. Campbellsville is averaging 43 points per game, and quarterback Jett Engle is willing to go for broke, for better (14.3 yards per completion, 14 TDs) or worse (seven INTs).
SP+ projection: LWU by 9.4
FCS: No. 11 North Dakota at No. 12 Southern Illinois (3 p.m., ESPN+). It’s not exactly a playoff eliminator, but it’s close. UND and SIU are 4-2 with losses only to FBS opponents (Kansas State and Purdue, respectively) and FCS heavyweights (Montana and North Dakota State). SIU dual-threat quarterback DJ Williams has five 200-yard passing games and two 100-yard rushing games, and UND’s relentless run game grinds opponents into dust.
SP+ projection: UND by 2.2
Division II: No. 3 West Florida at No. 8 West Alabama (6 p.m., FloCollege). Unbeaten Gulf South rivals face off in Livingston. UWA has topped 50 points in two straight games and doesn’t mind going full-on track meet with big-play receivers Dearrius Nelson and TD Parker. UWF, however, plays a bit more defense: Linebacker Ja’Kobe Clinton and tackle Kevin Roberts have already combined for 20 TFLs.
SP+ projection: UWF by 8.9
The 2025 World Series is set, and it will be a matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers.
After the defending champion Dodgers swept the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Championship Series, the Blue Jays outlasted the Seattle Mariners in a thrilling American League series.
What carried Toronto and Los Angeles this far — and will it continue to work in the Fall Classic? Which stars will shine brightest? And who else must step up? Our MLB experts are here with your first look at this year’s World Series showdown.
Note: Matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes. Team temperatures are based on Bill James’ formula for determining how “hot” or “cold” a team is at any given point; average is 72°.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
For the first time in more than three decades, the Toronto Blue Jays are back in the World Series where they will find the well-rested, defending champion Dodgers waiting for them. It’s the third Fall Classic for the Toronto franchise but the first since the Jays won back-to-back titles in 1992 and ’93.
The Expos never won a pennant, so the two Toronto pennants account for all World Series appearances by Canada-based clubs. Game 1 at the Rogers Centre will mark the seventh World Series game played outside of the U.S. border. And, spoiler alert, Canada will be rocking.
There’s a fairly limited history between the teams in terms of regular-season interleague play. The Dodgers hold the all-time edge, 19-11, and the franchises did not meet until June 18, 2002. The Blue Jays won that initial encounter behind a Roy Halladay complete game that featured an interesting pair of leadoff hitters. Hitting first for Toronto in that game, at least at the outset, was Chris Woodward, the Dodgers’ current first-base coach. Leading off for the Dodgers was Dave Roberts, who went 0-for-4 against Halladay.
Before the season, my simulations gave this matchup a 2.28% chance of happening, ranking 13th of 165 matchups that popped up in at least one sim. But because the Jays weren’t forecast as a favorite, and the AL figured to be tightly packed (as turned out to be the case), there were eight other teams that faced the Dodgers more often in the 10,000 simulated seasons, including the Mariners, whom the Jays just vanquished in the ALDS.
It’s a novel Fall Classic matchup featuring teams with old-school traits. For the Dodgers, it has been a joyous leaning on a dominant starting rotation. For Toronto, it’s a throwback offense that features standout batting or, more precisely, all the traits that lead to what passes for a high average in 2025 baseball. All of this makes this first Dodgers-Jays showdown a fascinating clash of teams with contrasting styles of play. The games begin in Toronto on Friday. — Doolittle
Toronto Blue Jays
Odds of winning: 40.4%
Team temperature: 93°
What is the No. 1 factor that has carried the Blue Jays to the World Series for the first time in three decades?
Jorge Castillo: This one is easy. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been the best player in this postseason — and, yes, that includes Shohei Ohtani. Six months after signing the third-largest contract in Major League Baseball history, Guerrero has played the part of superstar in October. He’s slashing an absurd .442/.510/.930. He has three strikeouts all month. His six home runs tied the Blue Jays franchise record for postseason home runs in a career. He has also showcased good defense at first base and smarts on the basepaths.
For a guy who entered October with a downright ugly October history — he slashed .136/.240/.182 without a home run in his first six career playoff games — Guerrero has put his stamp on this postseason to carry Toronto to its first World Series in 32 years. Four wins over the Dodgers, with Guerrero as the centerpiece of the upset, would make this one of the greatest October runs ever.
David Schoenfield: Yes, Jorge is correct: If Guerrero has a big World Series, it will go down as one of the greatest postseason performances of all time. Let’s also give a shoutout to rookie pitcher Trey Yesavage – and to the Blue Jays for having the belief in him to make him their No. 2 starter behind Kevin Gausman at the start of the postseason, even though Yesavage had made just three starts in the regular season.
He pitched 5⅓ hitless innings with 11 strikeouts against the Yankees in the ALDS, pure domination. He got three huge double plays to beat the Mariners in ALCS Game 6. Obviously, the stuff speaks for itself, but the Jays asked a lot from a young pitcher, and he has delivered.
Will it/won’t it continue against the Dodgers?
Castillo: Yes, but in limited doses because the Dodgers will probably pitch around Guerrero whenever possible. Nothing suggests Guerrero will slow down when given pitches to hit.
The Dodgers’ starting rotation has been utterly dominant, but Guerrero has hit elite pitching this month. He has hit all kinds of pitching. The pressure will be on the guys hitting behind him — Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement — to make the Dodgers pay when they refuse to engage Guerrero.
Schoenfield: It will be a little more difficult. Though the Dodgers, like the Mariners, strike out a lot, they also chase out of the zone far less often than Seattle (third-lowest chase rate in the regular season compared with 17th for the Mariners). The scouting reports on Yesavage were thin at the start of the playoffs, but now have three additional games to consider his tendencies. He was a little lucky to escape those two bases-loaded jams against the Mariners and given that his control can waver — he had three walks in each of his two ALCS starts — he will have to be a little more crisp against the Dodgers.
Vlad Jr. has been scorching hot all month. What should we expect from him in the World Series?
Castillo: See above. More of the same, unless the Dodgers refuse to pitch to him. We saw the Yankees and Mariners occasionally dabble with not attacking Guerrero, but they did not avoid him, for the most part. The series could hinge on how that dynamic plays out.
Schoenfield: He’s so locked in that you would expect it to continue. On the other hand, this Dodgers rotation has much better swing-and-miss stuff than Seattle’s rotation, which was missing Bryan Woo and featured a subpar Logan Gilbert.
Guerrero hit just 23 home runs in the regular season. Getting the ball in the air, like he has been doing in the playoffs, isn’t something he did consistently during the regular season, when he had several homerless dry spells.
Which other player is most crucial to the Blue Jays’ chances of winning a title?
Castillo: The bullpen is the Blue Jays’ weakest link, which makes Louis Varland significant in this series. Varland is John Schneider’s most trusted reliever. The right-hander has pitched in 10 of the Blue Jays’ 11 playoff games, often in the biggest spots in the middle innings. He has recorded more than three outs three times.
The Blue Jays could carry up to four left-handed relievers in their bullpen — Mason Fluharty, Brendon Little, Eric Lauer and Justin Bruihl — to counter Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy, but those lefties have struggled in the postseason.
Varland, whose splits during the regular season weren’t all that drastic (a .662 OPS against vs. RHH and a .716 .OPS against vs. LHH) will surely be in a huge spot against one of the Dodgers’ left-handed sluggers. Jeff Hoffman might be Toronto’s closer, but Varland, acquired at the trade deadline from the Twins, is the team’s best reliever, and the Blue Jays need him to secure huge outs.
Schoenfield: George Springer. The Blue Jays haven’t averaged 6.5 runs per game in the postseason just because of Vlad. They got production from the entire lineup — the bottom third was especially vital in the ALCS — and Springer delivered the series-winning home run against the Mariners. He’s hitting .239/.321/.609 in the postseason with four home runs and has, of course, been a postseason standout throughout his career, including winning World Series MVP honors in 2017.
Springer had a terrific regular season as well with no obvious holes in his game. He ranked 24th in the majors with an .885 OPS against pitches of 96-plus mph and 20th in the majors against offspeed pitches (sliders, curves, splitters, changeups). His at-bats leading off games will be key to getting the Blue Jays going.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Odds of winning: 59.6%
Team temperature: 122°
What is the No. 1 factor that has carried the Dodgers back to the World Series?
Jeff Passan: Their extraordinary starting pitching. In Los Angeles’ 10 games this postseason, its four starters — Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani — have systematically dissected Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Milwaukee’s offenses. In 64⅓ innings, they have a 1.40 ERA. It’s not by accident. Batters are hitting .132/.207/.201 against them. They have struck out four times as many as they’ve walked and allowed just two home runs.
Now, it’s the Mariners’ turn. Their offense has had moments. They’re capable. But they haven’t seen a rotation like the Dodgers’ yet.
Alden Gonzalez: It is their four starting pitchers, as Jeff noted. But the evolution of a fifth one, Roki Sasaki, has been just as critical. The Dodgers were searching for answers late in games when October arrived, and had it not been for Sasaki recapturing the velocity on his fastball and quickly adapting to a high-leverage bullpen role, they likely would not be here. The Dodgers have won nine of their 10 postseason games, and Sasaki has recorded the final out in five of them. In another, the Game 4 clincher in the NLDS, he pitched three perfect innings.
Will it/won’t it continue against the Blue Jays?
Gonzalez: The long layoff could be a boon for Sasaki, who had been in uncharted territory from a workload standpoint. Having essentially six days off means he will face few, if any, restrictions in the World Series. And if his arm is fresh and his command is right, opposing hitters usually don’t have much of a chance against his fastball-splitter combination.
One potential advantage for the Blue Jays, though, is that the book is essentially out on Sasaki by now, and they’ll have a much better feel for how to attack him than the Reds and Phillies, who both had little to work with because Sasaki’s stuff was so much better than what he displayed earlier this season. If the Blue Jays can get to him, the Dodgers will be left with few other options late in games.
Passan: Toronto has scored the most runs, hit the most home runs and struck out at the lowest rate of any team this postseason. If any playoff offense can get to the Dodgers, it’s the Blue Jays’ offense. This series will be the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object.
Dodgers pitchers average 96.8 mph on their fastballs. Toronto batters are hitting .292 off 97-mph-plus heaters, and they’ve struck out in just six of the 50 plate appearances that ended with those pitches. Expect even more two-strike spin from the team that averages just 35% fastballs on potential putaway pitches.
All of the Dodgers’ starters have at least four pitches — Yamamoto throws six and Ohtani seven — a buffet unfortunate to hitters. If Toronto can’t get to them, we’re looking at one of the greatest postseasons ever, like the 1983 Orioles but sustained over an even longer stretch.
It has been a mixed postseason for Shohei Ohtani. What should we expect from him in the World Series?
Gonzalez: When Ohtani gets going offensively — and if his performance in the pennant clincher wasn’t evidence of him getting back on track, I don’t know what is — he tends to carry it for a while. His career numbers against Blue Jays starters Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer are not great (6-for-31 with 14 strikeouts and zero walks), and a long layoff normally is not a good for hitters.
Any concern about how the time off between the end of the NLCS and the start of the World Series might negatively impact Ohtani’s offense should easily be made up by how it could positively impact his pitching. Ohtani’s six scoreless innings in NLCS Game 4 came on 12 days’ rest; his five no-hit innings against the Phillies on Sept. 16 came on 11 days’ rest.
Passan: It’s fair to say that he won’t match Game 4 of the NLCS, one of the greatest individual performances in baseball history. But Ohtani will get at least one start in the World Series, allowing him to at least recreate some portion of his masterpiece.
And at this point, anyone who doubts Ohtani’s ability to do anything hasn’t been paying attention. The reason there was such surprise at his struggles is because they’re such an unfamiliar sight. And the unfamiliarity comes from the rarity. If any of what he found at the plate in Game 4 carries over, expect fireworks.
Which other player is most crucial to the Dodgers’ chances of going back to back?
Gonzalez: Starting pitching will continue to lead the way for the Dodgers, who combined to slash just .223/.313/.364 at the plate over the past two rounds. They know they have to do better if they’re going to repeat as champions. And Freddie Freeman, in particular, will be key.
The Blue Jays’ rotation is all right-handed, which means Freeman will hit in the No. 3 spot of the Dodgers’ lineup, behind Ohtani and Mookie Betts. When the Dodgers defeated the New York Yankees in last year’s World Series, it was Freeman who won MVP. But he’s slashing just .231/.333/.410 in these playoffs, and though he hit better against the Brewers, the Dodgers would love to see more power out of him on the biggest stage. He should be presented with plenty of RBI opportunities.
Passan: No pitcher has been better than Blake Snell this season, and with him lined up to get the ball in Game 1 — same as he did in the wild-card series and NLCS — Snell will get to set the tone of the series and then be in line to pitch a potential clincher. In 21 innings, Snell has allowed 11 baserunners and struck out 28. He hasn’t yielded a home run.
He has been the personification of whom the Dodgers hoped they were getting when they signed him last winter to a five-year, $182.5 million contract. If he replicates his performances over the first three rounds of the postseason, the Dodgers won’t need much offensive support to back him up, and Snell will get to celebrate his first championship.
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Jorge Castillo
TORONTO — Nothing changed for the Toronto Blue Jays, Major League Baseball’s premier comeback artists in this dream of a season, before George Springer completed the franchise’s most important comeback since 1993 in their 4-3 win over the Seattle Mariners in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series on Monday.
The Blue Jays desperately needed runs in the seventh inning, so manager John Schneider, in keeping with a superstition he has shared with Blue Jays hitting coach David Popkins since Opening Day, sat down on the bench in the home dugout at Rogers Centre and watched the surreal sequence unfold. The bottom third of Toronto’s batting order, a pesky group of journeymen and defensive stalwarts and overlooked players who have found a home north of the border, did not flinch with Mariners ace Bryan Woo on the mound in relief. Instead, they sparked a rally.
And Springer, the starring actor in so many October dramas on another team in a previous life, did not deviate from his preparation. He stayed out of the batting cage. He stayed off the tablet so many of his peers use to analyze themselves and their foes.
“He’s very clear minded,” Popkins said. “He feels things.”
And Springer felt what was coming when he hobbled into the batter’s box with runners on second and third, the Blue Jays down two runs, and Rogers Centre on the verge of its roof busting open.
The Mariners, knowing he was hampered by a sore right knee after he was hit on the kneecap by a pitch in Game 5, sought to establish the inner half of the plate with two-seam fastballs against Springer all game. The game plan was obvious when he led off the top of the first inning and George Kirby brushed him off the plate with two two-seamers to begin the encounter.
Mariners reliever Eduard Bazardo, summoned by manager Dan Wilson over closer Andres Munoz to face Springer eight outs from the franchise’s first trip to the World Series, stayed with the approach. Bazardo’s first pitch was a two-seam fastball inside and off the plate. The second pitch was another two-seamer.
That one, however, caught too much of the plate and Springer turned on it, launching the ball into the seats in left field for a go-ahead, three-run home run not too far from where Joe Carter had deposited a baseball to win the Blue Jays the 1993 World Series.
“I knew I got the guy in from third, which was all I was trying to do and then I started to watch the outfielder,” Springer said. “I watched what happened and I sort of blacked out after that.”
This blast, after Toronto secured six more outs, sent the Blue Jays to the World Series for the first time since Carter’s heroics. They’ll face the Los Angeles Dodgers, the reigning champions attempting to become the first team to repeat in 25 years. Game 1 is scheduled for Friday at Rogers Centre.
“Any time your back leg’s compromised, it’s a little harder to turn,” Popkins said. “But he had one turn left so they kind of fell into a trap there.”
It was Springer’s 23rd career postseason home run, tied for third most in postseason history.
“It leaked a little bit over the heart [of the plate],” Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh said of the pitch Springer hit. “Maybe should’ve gone with a different pitch.”
Springer hit the first 19 of his postseason homers while playing center field for the Houston Astros for five Octobers. The other four have come in this postseason, his third trip to the playoffs with the Blue Jays since signing a six-year, $150 million contract in January 2021. His first two playoff appearances in Toronto resulted in zero wins in four games.
This year, the Blue Jays, after vaulting from 74 wins and last place in the American League East to 94 wins and division champions, are four wins from the third World Series in franchise history. Though Springer provided Monday’s heroics, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was named ALCS MVP after going 10-for-26 (.385) with 3 home runs, 3 doubles and a 1.330 OPS in the series.
After the game, Guerrero, who signed a 14-year, $500 million contract extension to remain with the organization that signed him at 16 years old, was in tears on the field as he addressed a raucous crowd that stayed to celebrate.
“I was born here,” said Guerrero, who was born in Montreal while his father played for the Expos. “I grew up in the Dominican, and then from the moment that I signed here, I knew I was going to be here my entire career. I knew I had to somehow make all the fans, the entire country, proud of me, of my team. And like I always say, my challenge is to bring the World Series here back to Canada.”
Guerrero loomed two batters after Springer when Bazardo chose to pitch to him. In the Blue Jays’ dugout, Schneider wondered if the Mariners would pitch around Springer or intentionally walk him with first base open and replace Bazardo with left-hander Gabe Speier to face the left-handed-hitting Nathan Lukes. But Bazardo stayed in.
Before the start of the bottom of the seventh, Guerrero said he went into the tunnel, got down on his knees and prayed for a win.
“Then, George hit the homer,” Guerrero said. “So, it was great.”
The home run was a fitting encapsulation of Springer’s season, one of resurgence from start to finish. Springer, 36, batted just .220 with 19 home runs and a .674 OPS in 2024, his fourth in Toronto and the fourth straight year his production declined. This year, he bounced back to become one of the best hitters in the majors, hitting .309 with 32 home runs and a .959 OPS as the Blue Jays’ full-time designated hitter to spearhead Toronto’s turnaround.
“We’ve just been reinforcing him to be who he has been his whole career,” Popkins said. “Go be violent. Go be aggressive. Don’t slow down. You’re a f—ing lion. Go attack and it just empowered him to be who he is.”
And there was nobody else the Blue Jays wanted at the plate in that spot in the seventh inning, with their season on the brink, than a hindered Springer.
“I had no doubt in my mind,” said Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette, who missed the series because of a knee injury.
Added Schneider: “It was almost like an out-of-body experience because of what he means to this team, to this organization.”
The heroics came days after Mariners fans booed when Springer was hit by a 95 mph sinker from Woo off the kneecap in Game 5 and cheered when he exited. The moment was not forgotten during the Blue Jays’ celebration. One Blue Jay noted during the postgame celebration that it was “fitting” that Springer ended the Mariners’ season after the episode.
More importantly, the home run, another that will live in Canadian baseball lore, extended the Blue Jays’ season for a chance to win it all.
“I love this team so much,” Springer said.
ESPN senior writer Buster Olney contributed to this report.
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