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With four ranked-versus-ranked games on the Week 8 docket, we were guaranteed to see some good teams fall this weekend. We got more than we bargained for. No. 2 Miami lost as a 10.5-point home favorite to an unranked team. No. 7 Texas Tech (10.5-point favorite), No. 22 Memphis (21.5-point favorite) and No. 25 Nebraska (5.5-point favorite) all fell to unranked squads as well.

And in the SEC, No. 4 Texas A&M barely survived 2-4 Arkansas, while No. 16 Missouri (against 3-3 Auburn) and No. 21 Texas (against 2-3 Kentucky) needed overtime to secure road wins.

Parity has been the watchword in college football this year — the elite teams don’t seem quite as elite, and the sport’s middle class seems closer to the top of the pack than usual. It rules, frankly. Week 8 certainly reinforced that notion. It was a breathless mess from start to finish.

In times like these, it’s hard to know what teams and players you can trust. I’m here to help. After eight topsy-turvy weeks, we have at least a decent idea of teams’ ceilings and floors, so let’s talk about college football’s most — and least — trustworthy entities.

I went on an Ohio State podcast last week and revealed an ugly truth: Ohio State is annoying the hell out of me this season. Amid all the parity talk, I’m pretty sure Ryan Day’s Buckeyes are comfortably the best team in the country at the moment, but they choose to drop hints only in periodic doses. I prefer my elite teams to win games 63-0 and basically wear a giant “WE’RE ELITE” sign, but after last season’s experience — in which the Buckeyes lost late in the year to Michigan but shifted into fifth gear in four comfortable College Football Playoff wins — no one better understands that the goal is to peak in December, not October.

It would help if they had some elite opponents to look toward, but the Big Ten opponent on their schedule that was supposed to be elite (Penn State) is anything but, and the Buckeyes aren’t scheduled to play Indiana. Instead, they’ve been left to alternate between second-gear blowouts of iffy to bad teams and comfortable 18-point road wins over solid-but-unspectacular opponents such as Illinois and Washington.

Day at least let Julian Sayin throw some pitches Saturday. In front of a less-than-robust Wisconsin crowd (perhaps just hours before the inevitable firing of head coach Luke Fickell), Sayin, who averaged just 26.8 dropbacks per game in his first six starts, went 36-for-42 for 393 yards and four touchdowns. He distributed the ball to 10 receivers, though the dynamite duo of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate combined for 15 catches and 208 yards.

Wisconsin’s offense was never going to threaten the best defense in the country — the Badgers gained just 144 total yards and took just nine snaps in Ohio State territory (yards gained in those snaps: 6) — so there was no downside to stretching Sayin out a bit. He averaged only 10.9 yards per completion, and Smith is still averaging just 9.4 yards per catch and 6.9 yards per target against power-conference opponents. For that matter, the Buckeyes’ run game is producing almost no explosive plays, but one assumes the passing game will provide more than enough explosiveness if it’s ever asked to, especially as Sayin, the redshirt freshman, grows in confidence.

Of course, we might have to wait a while to confirm that. Ohio State gets a bye week, then four straight games against teams with losing records (Penn State, Purdue, UCLA, Rutgers). Three of those games are at home, and three of those opponents rank worse than 65th in SP+. Anyone craving a glimpse at fifth-gear Ohio State is probably going to have to wait at least another month.


In part because of how quickly SP+ was saying Indiana was really good in 2024, I feel like I’ve been in the front car of the Hoosiers bandwagon for a while now. And even I have found myself wondering if or when they might begin to look a bit more mortal, to drop a hint that they might be dealing with extra pressure and expectations. It would be normal and forgivable if it happened, and when Aidan Chiles and Nick Marsh connected to give Michigan State a 10-7 lead early in the second quarter in front of 55,165 in Bloomington, I thought we might be encountering such a moment.

Nope. The Hoosiers ripped off a 75-yard touchdown drive, forced a punt, drove 80 yards for another touchdown and, after a halftime weather delay, drove 75 and 68 yards for two more touchdowns to put away a 38-13 win. Fernando Mendoza was nearly perfect once again, engineering five TD drives in five tries before a turnover on downs ended the streak early in the fourth quarter. He went 24-for-28 for 332 yards and four touchdowns, and stars Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt caught 12 passes for 185 yards and three of the scores. The Indiana defense had a poor game by its standards, allowing six Michigan State drives to finish in IU territory, but the Hoosiers still haven’t allowed more than 20 points in a game this season.

Even if your brain has been slow to completely grasp this — mine evidently has, despite my best efforts — there’s absolutely no reason to think of Indiana as anything but an elite team that will play like an elite team most of the time. And if that remains true, then go ahead and pencil the Hoosiers into the Big Ten championship game: Their five remaining games are against three teams ranked 65th or worse in SP+ and two (Maryland and Penn State) who are a combined 0-7 since Week 4.

We entered Week 8 with five teams looking at odds of 25% or higher to finish 12-0: Ohio State, Texas Tech, Indiana, Memphis and Miami. Three of them lost; the other two — Ohio State (now 49%) and Indiana (45%) — are on a collision course to meet in Indianapolis.


Don’t trust: The ACC

All of it. The entire conference is untrustworthy at this point. There were eight games involving ACC teams in Week 8; four produced upsets, three on the favorite’s home field, and two others nearly did. Stanford beat Florida State as a 17.5-point underdog, Louisville (+10.5) won at Miami, SMU (+5.5) won at Clemson in a game altered by multiple quarterback injuries and Georgia Tech (+3.5) won at Duke 27-18 in a game impacted heavily by a 95-yard Omar Daniels fumble return score.

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Omar Daniels takes Duke fumble 95 yards to the house

Georgia Tech strikes first as Omar Daniels recovers a Duke fumble and returns it 95 yards for the touchdown.

Oh yeah, and Cal nearly lost as an 8.5-point home favorite against previously hapless North Carolina, and Virginia (-16.5) needed a late Washington State implosion to beat the Cougars 22-20 at home. In all, only Pitt’s 30-13 win over Syracuse — the Panthers have genuinely gone to a new level since installing freshman Mason Heintschel at quarterback (though he admittedly didn’t do much Saturday) — and collapsing Boston College’s 38-23 loss to UConn produced what you might call expected outcomes, though UConn’s winning margin was larger than anticipated.

As one would expect, such a wacky week shuffled the conference title odds a good amount.

ACC title odds, per SP+:
Georgia Tech (7-0, 4-0 ACC): 26.9% (up 9.2%)
Louisville (5-1, 2-1): 16.8% (up 6.5%)
Miami (5-1, 1-1): 13.4% (down 17.3%)
Virginia (6-1, 3-0): 12.9% (up 1.9%)
SMU (5-2, 3-0): 12.9% (up 5.8%)
Pitt (5-2, 3-1): 8.3% (up 2.5%)
Duke (4-3, 3-1): 7.3% (down 7.7%)
Cal (5-2, 2-1): 1.0% (up 0.4%)

SP+ pinpointed Miami as more of a top-15 team than an elite one weeks ago, and as such, the Hurricanes could struggle in road trips against SMU (which has won three in a row) and the aforementioned Pitt in a series that has produced upsets in five of the past nine meetings. Louisville’s offense isn’t quite trustworthy yet, but the Cardinals have only one more SP+ top-40 opponent on the schedule (No. 37 SMU).

Virginia and SMU still have mulligans to spend — both are unbeaten in conference play — as does Georgia Tech, which remains unbeaten overall and has moved into the ACC driver’s seat. But as fun as the Tech story is, it’s hard to trust the Yellow Jackets, who, despite having not yet faced an SP+ top-40 team, have needed three one-score victories to remain unbeaten and rank only 29th in points per drive on offense and 53rd on defense. They’re 28th in SP+, behind Miami and Louisville and only narrowly ahead of Pitt, SMU and a quickly deteriorating Florida State.

Translation: This race probably has a few more plot twists to go. The spirit of the ACC Coastal division lives. Trust no one.


For what I believe was the first time since it expanded to 16 teams last year, the SEC had eight conference games going on the same Saturday. Two went to overtime, and others were decided by two, three, seven and eight points.

When we talk about parity in college football, we’re directing a lot of that at the SEC. It currently doesn’t have a team within six points of Ohio State in the SP+ ratings, but its top 10 teams are within five points of each other. All are ranked between fifth and 19th nationally, and even with Alabama bolting out ahead of the pack, we’re still looking at eight teams with at least a 5% chance at the conference title.

SEC title odds, per SP+:
Alabama (6-1, 4-0 SEC): 25.8% (up 7.0%)
Texas A&M (7-0, 4-0): 17.6% (up 3.1%)
Georgia (6-1, 4-1): 13.9% (up 3.4%)
Oklahoma (6-1, 2-1): 10.4% (up 2.7%)
Texas (5-2, 2-1): 7.7% (up 1.2%)
Missouri (6-1, 2-1): 7.4% (up 1.5%)
Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1): 7.1% (down 9.1%)
Vanderbilt (6-1, 2-1): 5.5% (up 1.8%)

Alabama indeed eased out in front thanks to Saturday’s 37-20 win over Tennessee. Who knows how the game might have played out if Zabien Brown hadn’t picked off a Joey Aguilar pass at the goal line and taken it 99 yards for a touchdown as the first half expired — instead of a 16-14 or 16-10 halftime lead for Bama, it was 23-7. But the Tide once again got the two things they have come to rely on: red zone stops from the defense and just the right plays from Ty Simpson.

In Bama’s current run of four straight wins over ranked foes, opposing teams have scored touchdowns on just seven of 14 red zone trips, with three turnovers, a turnover on downs and only one field goal among the seven failures. The Tide are just 58th in yards allowed per play and 66th in success rate allowed, but they’re 22nd in scoring defense. That’s a tenuous balance, and we’ll see what happens against Oklahoma or anyone they might face in the SEC championship game or CFP, but it’s working well for now.

It works even better since they know they’ll get what they need from Simpson. That Week 1 defeat at Florida State grows more baffling by the week, but since then Simpson ranks seventh in Total QBR with a 74% completion rate, a 16-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and a 52% success rate on third and fourth down (national average on those downs: 40%). He’s also the only guy this season who has outdueled Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia. Simpson has earned our trust, although I’m still willing to cast a suspicious glance toward the defense.


Trust: Georgia’s toughness

I’m also struggling to trust quite a few aspects of Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs. They struggled to run efficiently against either of the two good defenses they’ve faced, they continue to lack in the big-play department, and while they’ve played against three top-15 offenses, per SP+, we still expect a Smart defense to rank higher than 49th in points allowed per drive or 48th in success rate allowed.

Still, you have to admire the Dawgs’ flair for the moment. They spotted Tennessee a 14-point lead in the first quarter, Auburn a 10-point lead in the first, Alabama a 14-point lead in the second and Ole Miss a nine-point lead in the third, and yet, the only team they lost to was Bama. (And it looked like they were going to win that one, too, until Bama’s defensive red zone magic struck.) Against Auburn’s awesome defense in Week 7, they eventually figured out a way to eke out 20 points and a road win; against Ole Miss’ awesome offense in Week 8, they allowed five straight touchdowns to start the game but stayed within pecking distance and then suddenly locked the Rebels all the way down. Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss went 1-for-10 passing during a fourth quarter in which Georgia outgained the Rebels 143-13 and outscored them 17-0. The result: yet another comeback win 43-35.

When the Bulldogs need to score 40-plus, they do it. When they need to hold an opponent to 10, they do it. It would be awfully boring if, in this year of epic SEC parity — when Texas A&M, Missouri, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt all have at least a puncher’s chance at the crown — we got another Georgia-Bama conference title game. But it’s pretty damn hard to think we won’t at this point, isn’t it?


Don’t trust: Arch Manning and Texas’ offense

I called Ohio State’s defense the best in the country above, and I certainly believe it is. SP+, however, still leans toward Texas, which held the Buckeyes to 14 points in the season opener and has allowed only one opponent to score more than that. The Longhorns rank fourth in points allowed per drive and 10th in yards allowed per play — quite possibly the second-best defense in the sport to my eyes.

Despite the defense, however, and despite a potentially key tiebreaker win over Oklahoma last week, Texas is only fifth on the SEC title odds list above, just ahead of Missouri and behind those Sooners. You already know the reason, of course: an offense that ranks 74th in yards per play, 88th in points per drive, 101st in success rate (80th rushing, 110th passing) and 116th in percentage of plays gaining zero or negative yards. On 46.5% of their pass attempts this season, they’d have been as well or better off just spiking the ball into the ground; that “spike factor” ranks 120th.

I don’t bring this up to heap further scorn on Arch Manning, or at least not to specifically do that. The preseason Heisman favorite hasn’t gotten any of the help he needed this season, and he certainly didn’t in Saturday night’s 16-13 win over Kentucky. His running backs averaged 3.3 yards per carry in Lexington, and his first 25 pass attempts produced just eight completions and three sacks. He did complete four straight short passes late, but Texas gained just 179 yards against a Wildcats defense that allowed 461 yards to Eastern Michigan in mid-September.

The Longhorns survived when Kentucky foolishly called two straight halfback dives into the teeth of Texas’ enormous defensive line and turned the ball over on downs in overtime, setting up Mason Shipley’s game-winning field goal. But this offense is still failing to clear an increasingly low bar. It has underachieved against SP+ projections in five of seven games and needed a special teams touchdown to overachieve its projection against Oklahoma last week.

No matter how good the defense may be, it’s going to face four of the nation’s top 15 offenses (per SP+) in its last five games, and the offense is going to face three defenses that grade out better than Kentucky’s. If it can’t help Manning, and Manning can’t help himself and start to improve — a hard thing to do midstream, especially when your issues seem to be pretty fundamental things such as footwork, pocket timing and accuracy — then how exactly does Texas end up with a playoff résumé? Things could be worse; the Horns could have easily lost to UK. But it’s hard to see things getting much better.


I’m not sure my trust is going to be enough. At 5-2 with no serious résumé-building win opportunities left, it sure seems like Notre Dame will be at or near the bottom of a pile of hypothetical two-loss teams even if it gets to 10-2 at the end of the regular season. There’s no shame in losing to Miami and Texas A&M — teams that are a combined 12-1 — by four combined points, as the Irish did, and their list of quality wins just isn’t going to end up being all that impressive even if USC, Saturday night’s victim, keeps playing well.

For this conversation, however, that doesn’t really matter. All that matters is that this is one of the five best teams in the country right now, and I’m growing to trust the Irish considerably. (Well, everything but their place-kicking anyway.) They’ve overachieved against SP+ projections over the last five games by an average of 14.9 points. And even though quarterback CJ Carr had a poor game Saturday — 16-for-26 for 136 yards, a TD, an interception, a sack and a 32.8 Total QBR — they still overachieved against their offensive projections thanks to a 228-yard rushing performance from Jeremiyah Love, his first genuine breakout game of the year, and an 87-yard performance with a kick return score from backup Jadarian Price.

Combine a high-end offense with a defense that seems to have completely solved itself over the last month, and you’ve got a hell of a team. After allowing 32.7 points per game in Chris Ash’s first three games as coordinator, the Irish have since allowed just 12.8 per game despite playing USC (first in offensive SP+), Arkansas (fifth) and Boise State (25th), and despite dealing with injuries to stars such as corner Leonard Moore and tackle Gabriel Rubio. USC had scored at least 31 points in every game before Saturday and came to South Bend averaging 8.3 yards per play; the Trojans managed just 24 points and 5.6 yards per play against the Irish.

Thanks primarily to the early defensive struggles, the Irish were 21st in SP+ after three games. They’re now sixth after seven games. Only one remaining game is projected within 17 points, per SP+, and if they make the CFP they could do some serious damage. We’ll have to see what fate has in store in that regard.


This week in SP+

The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)

Moving up

Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:

Temple: up 4.5 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 88th to 72nd)

Florida International: up 4.3 points (from 130th to 124th)

James Madison: up 3.6 points (from 59th to 47th)

Central Michigan: up 3.5 points (from 125th to 114th)

Oregon State: up 3.5 points (from 114th to 106th)

After losing to Delaware and UConn by a combined 89-26, FIU unleashed a nearly perfect performance out of nowhere Tuesday, heading up to Western Kentucky and winning 25-6. James Madison, meanwhile, knocked Old Dominion out in a delightful Saturday slugfest, scoring 42 straight points to turn a 27-21 deficit into a 63-27 rout.

But we need to talk about Temple for a second: The Owls hadn’t topped three wins since 2019, watching their meticulously rebuilt program crumble to the ground in the 2020s. But then they hired KC Keeler. It might have been the best hire of last offseason. The 66-year-old has them at 4-3 following Saturday’s 49-14 blowout of Charlotte.

Temple hasn’t had the athleticism to keep up with high-level power-conference opponents — Oklahoma and Georgia Tech beat the Owls by a combined 87-27 — but against teams in their weight class, they’re 4-1, having overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 19.4 points and having lost only to unbeaten Navy in the last minute. What a turnaround.

Here are the five power-conference teams that rose the most:

Minnesota: up 3.1 points (from 57th to 49th)

UCF: up 3.0 points (from 58th to 51st)

Cincinnati: up 1.8 points (from 30th to 25th)

Stanford: up 1.7 points (from 108th to 101st)

North Carolina: up 1.6 points (from 103rd to 98th)

Minnesota sure does love playing Nebraska. The Gophers pummeled the Huskers on Friday night 24-6 to move to 5-2 on the season. Without that ghastly egg-laying loss at Cal in Week 3, they’d be ranked and looking at a potential 9-3 finish or so.

Moving down

Here are the 10 teams whose ratings fell the most:

UTSA: down 5.0 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 61st to 71st)

Tennessee: down 4.0 points (from 11th to 18th)

Rutgers: down 3.8 points (from 50th to 67th)

Nebraska: down 3.7 points (from 20th to 26th)

West Virginia: down 3.6 points (from 80th to 97th)

Memphis: down 3.5 points (from 24th to 30th)

Northern Illinois: down 3.3 points (from 118th to 127th)

South Carolina: down 3.3 points (from 40th to 52nd)

USC: down 2.9 points (from 14th to 16th)

Clemson: down 2.8 points (from 39th to 46th)

There’s no great shame in losing at Alabama, but Tennessee’s slippage here has been a long time coming: The Vols have now underachieved against projections for five straight games, and they’ve done so by double digits in each of the past two. The defense, which finished sixth in defensive SP+ last season, has underachieved in every game and is down to 44th, and while the offense propped the Vols up for a while, it has also underachieved the past two weeks. Continued underachievement at that level would put them in danger of losing at Kentucky this coming week.


Who won the Heisman this week?

I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, nine for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?

Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:

1. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (26-for-31 passing for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 59 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Ole Miss).

2. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (24-for-28 passing for 332 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 18 non-sack rushing yards against Michigan State).

3. Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (24 carries for 228 yards and a touchdown, plus 37 receiving yards against USC).

4. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (36-for-42 passing for 393 yards and 4 touchdowns against Wisconsin).

5. Alonza Barnett III, James Madison (17-for-25 passing for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 165 non-sack rushing yards and 4 TDs against Old Dominion).

6. Taylen Green, Arkansas (19-for-32 passing for 256 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 131 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Texas A&M).

7. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (14-for-22 passing for 160 yards and a touchdown, plus 94 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against LSU).

8. Colin Simmons, Texas (4 tackles, 3 sacks and 1 forced fumble against Kentucky).

9. Dylan Riley, Boise State (15 carries for 201 yards and a touchdown against UNLV).

10. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (14-for-21 passing for 205 yards, plus 120 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Duke).

It was tempting to just give each of the top three names a share of No. 1 for the week. Love’s domination of USC was vital to Notre Dame’s playoff hopes (and really fun to watch), and Mendoza was ridiculous yet again — his Total QBR has now topped 90.0 in four of the past five games, and he’s completing 74% of his passes with a 21-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio. Kurtis Rourke was so good for the Hoosiers last season, and Mendoza is raising the bar.

I had to give No. 1 to Stockton, though. He had to be great for the Dawgs to keep up with Ole Miss, and when the Georgia defense finally showed up, Stockton raised his game even further. Awesome stuff.

Honorable mention:

Byrum Brown, USF (14-for-24 passing for 256 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 123 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Florida Atlantic).

Zabien Brown, Alabama (seven tackles and a 99-yard pick-six against Tennessee).

Anthony Hankerson, Oregon State (25 carries for 204 yards and 4 touchdowns against Lafayette).

Caleb Hawkins, North Texas (18 carries for 133 yards, plus 90 receiving yards against UTSA).

Brad Jackson, Texas State (26-for-38 passing for 444 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, plus 77 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Marshall).

Nick Minicucci, Delaware (32-for-50 passing for 422 yards and a touchdown, plus 20 non-sack rushing yards against Jacksonville State).

Dante Moore, Oregon (15-for-20 passing for 290 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT, plus 49 non-sack rushing yards against Rutgers).

Kejon Owens, Florida International (22 carries for 195 yards and a touchdown, plus seven receiving yards against Western Kentucky).

(By the way, a quick shoutout to Curry College’s Montie Quinn, who broke the Division III record with 522 rushing yards … on 20 carries! The Colonels beat Nichols 71-27, and his seven touchdowns alone gained 399 yards, including jaunts of 85, 84, 76, 64 and 58 yards.)

Through eight weeks, here are your points leaders:

1. Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points)
2. Taylen Green, Arkansas (27)
3T. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (19)
3T. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (19)
3T. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (19)
6T. Luke Altmyer, Illinois (16)
6T. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (16)
8. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (15)
9. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (14)
10. Jayden Maiava, USC (12)

For the first time all season, the points race and the current Heisman betting odds have begun to match up. Six of the above names are also in the top 10 per ESPN BET: Mendoza (No. 1 betting favorite), Simpson (No. 2), Sayin (No. 3), Stockton (No. 5), Pavia (No. 8) and Chambliss (No. 9T).


My 10 favorite games of the weekend

1 and 2. Stanford 20, Florida State 13 and California 21, North Carolina 18 (Friday). We had matching last-minute goal-line stands in the Bay Area, though Stanford-FSU gets the edge for adding in a mini-Hail Mary (to get to the Stanford 9 with two seconds left) and an untimed down following a pass interference call (which followed an errant snap). And are we sure Gavin Sawchuk didn’t make it to the end zone? One of the most unique finishes you’ll see.

Cal, meanwhile, merely forced a fumble millimeters before the end zone with four minutes left. Boring.

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Cal forces UNC fumble at the goal line for a touchback

Cal’s Brent Austin punches the ball out of Nathan Leacock’s hands at the goal line to force a fumble and subsequent touchback.

3. FCS: East Texas A&M 52, Incarnate Word 45. With 6:45 left, East Texas A&M took its first lead 45-42 after trailing by as many as 21 earlier in the game.

With 1:55 left, UIW’s Will Faris hit a 57-yard field goal to tie the game at 45-45.

With 0:27 left, ETAMU not only scored the winning points but did so with one of the most physical runs of the week.

Hot damn, EJ Oakmon.

4. Louisville 24, No. 2 Miami 21 (Friday). Louisville’s offense hasn’t carried its weight at times this year, but the Cardinals scripted out two early touchdowns and got a beautiful, 36-yard burst from Chris Bell. The defense took it from there. T.J. Capers‘ interception — the Cardinals’ fourth of Carson Beck — clinched the upset and sent the ACC race into chaos.

5. FCS: Lamar 23, UT Rio Grande Valley 21. UT Rio Grande Valley is 5-2 in its debut season; the Vaqueros have acquitted themselves well, and they almost took down a ranked Lamar team in Beaumont with two fourth-quarter touchdowns. But Ben Woodard nailed a 57-yard field goal with 1:03 left, and Mar Mar Evans picked off a desperate Eddie Lee Marburger pass with 14 seconds left. Lamar survived.

6. No. 9 Georgia 43, No. 5 Ole Miss 35. I almost just assumed that Ole Miss would score late and send this one to overtime. Alas. A heavyweight matchup in a heavyweight environment.

7. Tulane 24, Army 17. I reflexively made the Chris Berman “WHOOOP” sound when this happened.

8. Arizona State 26, No. 7 Texas Tech 22. Texas Tech backup quarterback Will Hammond finally looked like a backup, but the Red Raiders overcame a number of miscues to take the lead with two minutes left, only for ASU to respond with a 10-play, 75-yard drive capped by Raleek Brown‘s last-minute touchdown.

9. TCU 42, Baylor 36. One of many games with lengthy weather delays, this one almost saw a three-minute, 21-point comeback. TCU led 42-21, but Keaton Thomas returned a fumble for a touchdown, Sawyer Robertson completed a 35-yard touchdown to Kole Wilson, and Baylor recovered an onside kick with 30 seconds left. But Namdi Obiazor picked Robertson off near midfield, and the Horned Frogs survived.

10. UAB 31, No. 22 Memphis 24. You get points for creativity, Memphis. After Greg Desrosiers Jr. had his game-tying, 41-yard touchdown disallowed — replay determined he was down just short of the goal line — Memphis proceeded to commit two false starts and a delay of game, and backup quarterback AJ Hill‘s fourth-down pass to Cortez Braham Jr. was incomplete by inches. I’ve never seen a team lose a game like that.

11. Division II: Benedict 31, Edward Waters 27.

12. UCLA 20, Maryland 17.

13. Houston 31, Arizona 28.

14. FCS: Chattanooga 42, ETSU 38.

15. Marshall 40, Texas State 37 (2OT).

16. No. 16 Missouri 23, Auburn 17 (OT).

17. Iowa 25, Penn State 24.

18. Division III: No. 14 John Carroll 31, No. 11 DePauw 27.

19. NAIA: Faulkner 36, Cumberlands 35.

20. Florida 23, Mississippi State 21

It says a lot about the week that we had two SEC overtime games, and neither made the top 15.

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Blue Jays-Dodgers World Series preview: Which team has the edge?

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Blue Jays-Dodgers World Series preview: Which team has the edge?

The 2025 World Series is set, and it will be a matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers.

After the defending champion Dodgers swept the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Championship Series, the Blue Jays outlasted the Seattle Mariners in a thrilling American League series.

What carried Toronto and Los Angeles this far — and will it continue to work in the Fall Classic? Which stars will shine brightest? And who else must step up? Our MLB experts are here with your first look at this year’s World Series showdown.

Note: Matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes. Team temperatures are based on Bill James’ formula for determining how “hot” or “cold” a team is at any given point; average is 72°.


Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

For the first time in more than three decades, the Toronto Blue Jays are back in the World Series where they will find the well-rested, defending champion Dodgers waiting for them. It’s the third Fall Classic for the Toronto franchise but the first since the Jays won back-to-back titles in 1992 and ’93.

The Expos never won a pennant, so the two Toronto pennants account for all World Series appearances by Canada-based clubs. Game 1 at the Rogers Centre will mark the seventh World Series game played outside of the U.S. border. And, spoiler alert, Canada will be rocking.

There’s a fairly limited history between the teams in terms of regular-season interleague play. The Dodgers hold the all-time edge, 19-11, and the franchises did not meet until June 18, 2002. The Blue Jays won that initial encounter behind a Roy Halladay complete game that featured an interesting pair of leadoff hitters. Hitting first for Toronto in that game, at least at the outset, was Chris Woodward, the Dodgers’ current first-base coach. Leading off for the Dodgers was Dave Roberts, who went 0-for-4 against Halladay.

Before the season, my simulations gave this matchup a 2.28% chance of happening, ranking 13th of 165 matchups that popped up in at least one sim. But because the Jays weren’t forecast as a favorite, and the AL figured to be tightly packed (as turned out to be the case), there were eight other teams that faced the Dodgers more often in the 10,000 simulated seasons, including the Mariners, whom the Jays just vanquished in the ALDS.

It’s a novel Fall Classic matchup featuring teams with old-school traits. For the Dodgers, it has been a joyous leaning on a dominant starting rotation. For Toronto, it’s a throwback offense that features standout batting or, more precisely, all the traits that lead to what passes for a high average in 2025 baseball. All of this makes this first Dodgers-Jays showdown a fascinating clash of teams with contrasting styles of play. The games begin in Toronto on Friday. — Doolittle


Toronto Blue Jays

Odds of winning: 40.4%

Team temperature: 93°

What is the No. 1 factor that has carried the Blue Jays to the World Series for the first time in three decades?

Jorge Castillo: This one is easy. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been the best player in this postseason — and, yes, that includes Shohei Ohtani. Six months after signing the third-largest contract in Major League Baseball history, Guerrero has played the part of superstar in October. He’s slashing an absurd .442/.510/.930. He has three strikeouts all month. His six home runs tied the Blue Jays franchise record for postseason home runs in a career. He has also showcased good defense at first base and smarts on the basepaths.

For a guy who entered October with a downright ugly October history — he slashed .136/.240/.182 without a home run in his first six career playoff games — Guerrero has put his stamp on this postseason to carry Toronto to its first World Series in 32 years. Four wins over the Dodgers, with Guerrero as the centerpiece of the upset, would make this one of the greatest October runs ever.

David Schoenfield: Yes, Jorge is correct: If Guerrero has a big World Series, it will go down as one of the greatest postseason performances of all time. Let’s also give a shoutout to rookie pitcher Trey Yesavage – and to the Blue Jays for having the belief in him to make him their No. 2 starter behind Kevin Gausman at the start of the postseason, even though Yesavage had made just three starts in the regular season.

He pitched 5⅓ hitless innings with 11 strikeouts against the Yankees in the ALDS, pure domination. He got three huge double plays to beat the Mariners in ALCS Game 6. Obviously, the stuff speaks for itself, but the Jays asked a lot from a young pitcher, and he has delivered.


Will it/won’t it continue against the Dodgers?

Castillo: Yes, but in limited doses because the Dodgers will probably pitch around Guerrero whenever possible. Nothing suggests Guerrero will slow down when given pitches to hit.

The Dodgers’ starting rotation has been utterly dominant, but Guerrero has hit elite pitching this month. He has hit all kinds of pitching. The pressure will be on the guys hitting behind him — Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement — to make the Dodgers pay when they refuse to engage Guerrero.

Schoenfield: It will be a little more difficult. Though the Dodgers, like the Mariners, strike out a lot, they also chase out of the zone far less often than Seattle (third-lowest chase rate in the regular season compared with 17th for the Mariners). The scouting reports on Yesavage were thin at the start of the playoffs, but now have three additional games to consider his tendencies. He was a little lucky to escape those two bases-loaded jams against the Mariners and given that his control can waver — he had three walks in each of his two ALCS starts — he will have to be a little more crisp against the Dodgers.


Vlad Jr. has been scorching hot all month. What should we expect from him in the World Series?

Castillo: See above. More of the same, unless the Dodgers refuse to pitch to him. We saw the Yankees and Mariners occasionally dabble with not attacking Guerrero, but they did not avoid him, for the most part. The series could hinge on how that dynamic plays out.

Schoenfield: He’s so locked in that you would expect it to continue. On the other hand, this Dodgers rotation has much better swing-and-miss stuff than Seattle’s rotation, which was missing Bryan Woo and featured a subpar Logan Gilbert.

Guerrero hit just 23 home runs in the regular season. Getting the ball in the air, like he has been doing in the playoffs, isn’t something he did consistently during the regular season, when he had several homerless dry spells.


Which other player is most crucial to the Blue Jays’ chances of winning a title?

Castillo: The bullpen is the Blue Jays’ weakest link, which makes Louis Varland significant in this series. Varland is John Schneider’s most trusted reliever. The right-hander has pitched in 10 of the Blue Jays’ 11 playoff games, often in the biggest spots in the middle innings. He has recorded more than three outs three times.

The Blue Jays could carry up to four left-handed relievers in their bullpen — Mason Fluharty, Brendon Little, Eric Lauer and Justin Bruihl — to counter Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy, but those lefties have struggled in the postseason.

Varland, whose splits during the regular season weren’t all that drastic (a .662 OPS against vs. RHH and a .716 .OPS against vs. LHH) will surely be in a huge spot against one of the Dodgers’ left-handed sluggers. Jeff Hoffman might be Toronto’s closer, but Varland, acquired at the trade deadline from the Twins, is the team’s best reliever, and the Blue Jays need him to secure huge outs.

Schoenfield: George Springer. The Blue Jays haven’t averaged 6.5 runs per game in the postseason just because of Vlad. They got production from the entire lineup — the bottom third was especially vital in the ALCS — and Springer delivered the series-winning home run against the Mariners. He’s hitting .239/.321/.609 in the postseason with four home runs and has, of course, been a postseason standout throughout his career, including winning World Series MVP honors in 2017.

Springer had a terrific regular season as well with no obvious holes in his game. He ranked 24th in the majors with an .885 OPS against pitches of 96-plus mph and 20th in the majors against offspeed pitches (sliders, curves, splitters, changeups). His at-bats leading off games will be key to getting the Blue Jays going.


Los Angeles Dodgers

Odds of winning: 59.6%

Team temperature: 122°

What is the No. 1 factor that has carried the Dodgers back to the World Series?

Jeff Passan: Their extraordinary starting pitching. In Los Angeles’ 10 games this postseason, its four starters — Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani — have systematically dissected Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Milwaukee’s offenses. In 64⅓ innings, they have a 1.40 ERA. It’s not by accident. Batters are hitting .132/.207/.201 against them. They have struck out four times as many as they’ve walked and allowed just two home runs.

Now, it’s the Mariners’ turn. Their offense has had moments. They’re capable. But they haven’t seen a rotation like the Dodgers’ yet.

Alden Gonzalez: It is their four starting pitchers, as Jeff noted. But the evolution of a fifth one, Roki Sasaki, has been just as critical. The Dodgers were searching for answers late in games when October arrived, and had it not been for Sasaki recapturing the velocity on his fastball and quickly adapting to a high-leverage bullpen role, they likely would not be here. The Dodgers have won nine of their 10 postseason games, and Sasaki has recorded the final out in five of them. In another, the Game 4 clincher in the NLDS, he pitched three perfect innings.

Will it/won’t it continue against the Blue Jays?

Gonzalez: The long layoff could be a boon for Sasaki, who had been in uncharted territory from a workload standpoint. Having essentially six days off means he will face few, if any, restrictions in the World Series. And if his arm is fresh and his command is right, opposing hitters usually don’t have much of a chance against his fastball-splitter combination.

One potential advantage for the Blue Jays, though, is that the book is essentially out on Sasaki by now, and they’ll have a much better feel for how to attack him than the Reds and Phillies, who both had little to work with because Sasaki’s stuff was so much better than what he displayed earlier this season. If the Blue Jays can get to him, the Dodgers will be left with few other options late in games.

Passan: Toronto has scored the most runs, hit the most home runs and struck out at the lowest rate of any team this postseason. If any playoff offense can get to the Dodgers, it’s the Blue Jays’ offense. This series will be the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object.

Dodgers pitchers average 96.8 mph on their fastballs. Toronto batters are hitting .292 off 97-mph-plus heaters, and they’ve struck out in just six of the 50 plate appearances that ended with those pitches. Expect even more two-strike spin from the team that averages just 35% fastballs on potential putaway pitches.

All of the Dodgers’ starters have at least four pitches — Yamamoto throws six and Ohtani seven — a buffet unfortunate to hitters. If Toronto can’t get to them, we’re looking at one of the greatest postseasons ever, like the 1983 Orioles but sustained over an even longer stretch.

It has been a mixed postseason for Shohei Ohtani. What should we expect from him in the World Series?

Gonzalez: When Ohtani gets going offensively — and if his performance in the pennant clincher wasn’t evidence of him getting back on track, I don’t know what is — he tends to carry it for a while. His career numbers against Blue Jays starters Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer are not great (6-for-31 with 14 strikeouts and zero walks), and a long layoff normally is not a good for hitters.

Any concern about how the time off between the end of the NLCS and the start of the World Series might negatively impact Ohtani’s offense should easily be made up by how it could positively impact his pitching. Ohtani’s six scoreless innings in NLCS Game 4 came on 12 days’ rest; his five no-hit innings against the Phillies on Sept. 16 came on 11 days’ rest.

Passan: It’s fair to say that he won’t match Game 4 of the NLCS, one of the greatest individual performances in baseball history. But Ohtani will get at least one start in the World Series, allowing him to at least recreate some portion of his masterpiece.

And at this point, anyone who doubts Ohtani’s ability to do anything hasn’t been paying attention. The reason there was such surprise at his struggles is because they’re such an unfamiliar sight. And the unfamiliarity comes from the rarity. If any of what he found at the plate in Game 4 carries over, expect fireworks.

Which other player is most crucial to the Dodgers’ chances of going back to back?

Gonzalez: Starting pitching will continue to lead the way for the Dodgers, who combined to slash just .223/.313/.364 at the plate over the past two rounds. They know they have to do better if they’re going to repeat as champions. And Freddie Freeman, in particular, will be key.

The Blue Jays’ rotation is all right-handed, which means Freeman will hit in the No. 3 spot of the Dodgers’ lineup, behind Ohtani and Mookie Betts. When the Dodgers defeated the New York Yankees in last year’s World Series, it was Freeman who won MVP. But he’s slashing just .231/.333/.410 in these playoffs, and though he hit better against the Brewers, the Dodgers would love to see more power out of him on the biggest stage. He should be presented with plenty of RBI opportunities.

Passan: No pitcher has been better than Blake Snell this season, and with him lined up to get the ball in Game 1 — same as he did in the wild-card series and NLCS — Snell will get to set the tone of the series and then be in line to pitch a potential clincher. In 21 innings, Snell has allowed 11 baserunners and struck out 28. He hasn’t yielded a home run.

He has been the personification of whom the Dodgers hoped they were getting when they signed him last winter to a five-year, $182.5 million contract. If he replicates his performances over the first three rounds of the postseason, the Dodgers won’t need much offensive support to back him up, and Snell will get to celebrate his first championship.

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Dodgers still big favorites entering World Series

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Dodgers still big favorites entering World Series

The Los Angeles Dodgers entered the 2025 MLB regular season as the largest title favorites in over two decades, and they’ll head into the 2025 World Series as the overwhelming favorites to win their second straight championship.

Los Angeles opened as the -210 favorite to win the World Series over the Toronto Blue Jays, who opened at +175, according to ESPN BET odds. The series spread opened at Dodgers -1.5 (-115) to the Jays’ +1.5 (-105).

The Blue Jays beat the Seattle Mariners in Game 7 of their American League Championship Series on Monday, sending Toronto to its first World Series since 1993.

If the Dodgers were to capture another Commissioner’s Trophy, they’ll do so as wire-to-wire favorites for the second consecutive season, becoming the first team to accomplish that feat since the New York Yankees in 1999 and 2000, according to data from SportsOddsHistory.com.

Despite their short odds all season — even as they struggled at times, ultimately obtaining the National League’s third seed — the Dodgers were well supported by the betting public. ESPN BET reports nearly a third of all of its World Series tickets, including settled bets, backing LA; among playoff teams, the Dodgers have garnered 44.4% of the handle since the beginning of the postseason.

BetMGM also had significant liability on a Los Angeles title, with senior trader Halvor Egeland saying before the championship series that the Dodgers winning it all “would make many bettors happy” and “the sportsbook will be cheering for whichever team comes out of the American League with the Blue Jays being the best outcome.”

Toronto was initially viewed as a relative World Series long shot across the sportsbook marketplace, entering the season with consensus +6000 odds. It attracted a bit of attention from bettors after a late-season surge that ended with the Blue Jays as the AL’s top seed, but they still ended up with only 7.7% of the wagers overall at ESPN BET.

Game 1 of the World Series is Friday at Rogers Centre. The home Blue Jays opened at +125 on the money line, with the Dodgers taking road favorite status at -150.

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Springer HR sends Blue Jays to 1st WS since ’93

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Springer HR sends Blue Jays to 1st WS since '93

TORONTO — Nothing changed for the Toronto Blue Jays, Major League Baseball’s premier comeback artists in this dream of a season, before George Springer completed the franchise’s most important comeback since 1993 in their 4-3 win over the Seattle Mariners in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series on Monday.

The Blue Jays desperately needed runs in the seventh inning, so manager John Schneider, in keeping with a superstition he has shared with Blue Jays hitting coach David Popkins since Opening Day, sat down on the bench in the home dugout at Rogers Centre and watched the surreal sequence unfold. The bottom third of Toronto’s batting order, a pesky group of journeymen and defensive stalwarts and overlooked players who have found a home north of the border, did not flinch with Mariners ace Bryan Woo on the mound in relief. Instead, they sparked a rally.

And Springer, the starring actor in so many October dramas on another team in a previous life, did not deviate from his preparation. He stayed out of the batting cage. He stayed off the tablet so many of his peers use to analyze themselves and their foes.

“He’s very clear minded,” Popkins said. “He feels things.”

And Springer felt what was coming when he hobbled into the batter’s box with runners on second and third, the Blue Jays down two runs, and Rogers Centre on the verge of its roof busting open.

The Mariners, knowing he was hampered by a sore right knee after he was hit on the kneecap by a pitch in Game 5, sought to establish the inner half of the plate with two-seam fastballs against Springer all game. The game plan was obvious when he led off the top of the first inning and George Kirby brushed him off the plate with two two-seamers to begin the encounter.

Mariners reliever Eduard Bazardo, summoned by manager Dan Wilson over closer Andres Munoz to face Springer eight outs from the franchise’s first trip to the World Series, stayed with the approach. Bazardo’s first pitch was a two-seam fastball inside and off the plate. The second pitch was another two-seamer.

That one, however, caught too much of the plate and Springer turned on it, launching the ball into the seats in left field for a go-ahead, three-run home run not too far from where Joe Carter had deposited a baseball to win the Blue Jays the 1993 World Series.

“I knew I got the guy in from third, which was all I was trying to do and then I started to watch the outfielder,” Springer said. “I watched what happened and I sort of blacked out after that.”

This blast, after Toronto secured six more outs, sent the Blue Jays to the World Series for the first time since Carter’s heroics. They’ll face the Los Angeles Dodgers, the reigning champions attempting to become the first team to repeat in 25 years. Game 1 is scheduled for Friday at Rogers Centre.

“Any time your back leg’s compromised, it’s a little harder to turn,” Popkins said. “But he had one turn left so they kind of fell into a trap there.”

It was Springer’s 23rd career postseason home run, tied for third most in postseason history.

“It leaked a little bit over the heart [of the plate],” Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh said of the pitch Springer hit. “Maybe should’ve gone with a different pitch.”

Springer hit the first 19 of his postseason homers while playing center field for the Houston Astros for five Octobers. The other four have come in this postseason, his third trip to the playoffs with the Blue Jays since signing a six-year, $150 million contract in January 2021. His first two playoff appearances in Toronto resulted in zero wins in four games.

This year, the Blue Jays, after vaulting from 74 wins and last place in the American League East to 94 wins and division champions, are four wins from the third World Series in franchise history. Though Springer provided Monday’s heroics, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was named ALCS MVP after going 10-for-26 (.385) with 3 home runs, 3 doubles and a 1.330 OPS in the series.

After the game, Guerrero, who signed a 14-year, $500 million contract extension to remain with the organization that signed him at 16 years old, was in tears on the field as he addressed a raucous crowd that stayed to celebrate.

“I was born here,” said Guerrero, who was born in Montreal while his father played for the Expos. “I grew up in the Dominican, and then from the moment that I signed here, I knew I was going to be here my entire career. I knew I had to somehow make all the fans, the entire country, proud of me, of my team. And like I always say, my challenge is to bring the World Series here back to Canada.”

Guerrero loomed two batters after Springer when Bazardo chose to pitch to him. In the Blue Jays’ dugout, Schneider wondered if the Mariners would pitch around Springer or intentionally walk him with first base open and replace Bazardo with left-hander Gabe Speier to face the left-handed-hitting Nathan Lukes. But Bazardo stayed in.

Before the start of the bottom of the seventh, Guerrero said he went into the tunnel, got down on his knees and prayed for a win.

“Then, George hit the homer,” Guerrero said. “So, it was great.”

The home run was a fitting encapsulation of Springer’s season, one of resurgence from start to finish. Springer, 36, batted just .220 with 19 home runs and a .674 OPS in 2024, his fourth in Toronto and the fourth straight year his production declined. This year, he bounced back to become one of the best hitters in the majors, hitting .309 with 32 home runs and a .959 OPS as the Blue Jays’ full-time designated hitter to spearhead Toronto’s turnaround.

“We’ve just been reinforcing him to be who he has been his whole career,” Popkins said. “Go be violent. Go be aggressive. Don’t slow down. You’re a f—ing lion. Go attack and it just empowered him to be who he is.”

And there was nobody else the Blue Jays wanted at the plate in that spot in the seventh inning, with their season on the brink, than a hindered Springer.

“I had no doubt in my mind,” said Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette, who missed the series because of a knee injury.

Added Schneider: “It was almost like an out-of-body experience because of what he means to this team, to this organization.”

The heroics came days after Mariners fans booed when Springer was hit by a 95 mph sinker from Woo off the kneecap in Game 5 and cheered when he exited. The moment was not forgotten during the Blue Jays’ celebration. One Blue Jay noted during the postgame celebration that it was “fitting” that Springer ended the Mariners’ season after the episode.

More importantly, the home run, another that will live in Canadian baseball lore, extended the Blue Jays’ season for a chance to win it all.

“I love this team so much,” Springer said.

ESPN senior writer Buster Olney contributed to this report.

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