Is the pandemic starting to fizzle out in the UK – or will drop in infections be short-lived?

Published

4 years ago

July 26, 2021

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After almost a week of falling case numbers, there are tentative signs that the spread of COVID-19 in the UK is starting to slow.

Reported cases, which include tests from a number of days previously, point to a decline in infections. But numbers based on tests conducted in the previous 24 hours do not show as clear a picture.

So, what does the data tell us about the state of the pandemic in the UK?

The picture varies across nations. While Scotland saw case rates apparently peak in early July, other parts of the UK have only just begun to see infections fall over the past few days.

The chart below shows new cases based on the day someone tests positive and the data from 19 July is subject to change.

Colin Angus, senior research fellow at the University of Sheffield, says that part of this divergence could be explained in part by Scotland’s early defeat in the Euros.

He said: “In Scotland this effect seems to have fizzled out after they were knocked out of the tournament in the group stages, while for England we are still seeing the after effects of it in the data now.”

The earlier start to the summer holidays could also explain the lag between case rates in Scotland and the rest of the UK.

But even in Scotland the data is unclear. A randomised community survey by the ONS estimates that one in every 80 Scots had COVID-19 in the week ending 17 July compared with one in 90 the week before.

Dr Simon Clarke, an associate professor at the University of Reading, said: “It’s too early to read too much into the ordinary test data – we’ve seen ups and downs before and it’s longer-term trends that matter.”

Why could case rates be falling?

One reason that cases could be falling is the start of school holidays in England, as children are often asymptomatic and are not required to get daily tests outside of term time.

But data shows only a moderate drop off in lateral flow tests in recent weeks. Meanwhile, PCR tests, which account for the vast majority of the system, continue to increase.

Another factor that could be driving infection rates is the number of people in self-isolation, which increased to more than 600,000 in the week ending 14 July.

Dr Stephen Griffin, associate professor in the School of Medicine, University of Leeds, said: “The ongoing coverage of the so-called ‘pingdemic’, unhelpful as it has been, actually reflect the fact that, in response to a large surge of infections, a great many people have been asked to self-isolate recently and this could have a direct impact upon transmission.”

Is the regional picture any clearer?

In England, case rates appear to be falling across most regions among 10 to 29-year-olds, but the trend is most pronounced across all age groups in the North East and North West.

Despite the rampant spread of COVID-19 in these regions, case rates among the elderly remained low, raising the question of whether vaccines have suppressed infection in older populations.

At the peak for the North West in January, there were more than 950 cases per 100,000 over-90s, compared with just 102 in the latest wave.

But University of Sheffield’s Colin Angus says that he is not convinced that the outbreaks have fizzled out because the virus has run out of susceptible people to infect.

He said: “If you look at Bolton and Blackburn, the original hotspots in the Delta wave, you can see that cases didn’t really fall back that far and the outbreak has continued to rumble along there in the past month or so, seemingly under the radar.”

Whatever the trends, experts warn that any decline in cases could be short-lived.

The return of schools combined with less outdoor socialising in the autumn is likely to lead to a surge in infections. In addition, it is still too early to gauge what impact lifting England’s remaining restrictions on 19 July will have on case numbers.

Dr Clarke said: “As things stand, we really don’t have any data for the effect of what’s happened on 19 July. It should put upward pressure on infection numbers, as should any measure which allows people to mix more.”

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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UK

Starmer urges anyone with information on Epstein case to come forward – after Andrew misses Congress deadline

Published

12 hours ago

November 23, 2025

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Starmer urges anyone with information on Epstein case to come forward - after Andrew misses Congress deadline

Sir Keir Starmer has urged anyone with information on the Jeffrey Epstein case to come forward after Andrew Mountbatten Windsor missed the deadline to appear in front of US Congress.

US legislators have criticised Andrew for what they describe as “silence” amid their probe into Epstein after he failed to respond to their request for an interview.

When asked about Andrew missing the deadline and whether the former prince should help the case in any way he can, Sir Keir said on his way to the G20 summit in South Africa: “I don’t comment on this particular case.”

He added that “a general principle I’ve held for a very long time is that anybody who has got relevant information in relation to these kind of cases should give that evidence to those that need it”.

Andrew is not legally obliged to talk to Congress and has always vigorously denied any wrongdoing.

It comes as Marjorie Taylor Greene, a loyal supporter-turned-critic of US President Donald Trump, said on Friday she is resigning from Congress in January.

Ms Greene’s resignation followed a public falling-out with Mr Trump in recent months, as the congresswoman criticised him for his stance on files related to Epstein, as well as on foreign policy and healthcare.

Members of the House Oversight Committee had requested a “transcribed interview” with Andrew in connection with his “long-standing friendship” with Epstein, the paedophile financier who took his own life in a New York prison in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking and conspiracy charges.

But after saying they had not heard back, Democrats Robert Garcia and Suhas Subramanyam accused Andrew of hiding.

Their statement read: “Andrew Mountbatten Windsor’s silence in the face of the Oversight Democrat’s demand for testimony speaks volumes.

“The documents we’ve reviewed, along with public records and Virginia Roberts Giuffre’s testimony, raise serious questions he must answer, yet he continues to hide.

“Our work will move forward with or without him, and we will hold anyone who was involved in these crimes accountable, no matter their wealth, status, or political party. We will get justice for the survivors.”

It follows Andrew being stripped of his prince and Duke of York titles earlier this month.

He had previously agreed to stop using his titles, but had expected to remain a prince and retain his dukedom, ahead of the publication of the memoirs of the late Ms Giuffre, who had accused him of sexually assaulting her when she was a teenager – an accusation he denies.

UK

Girl, 13, arrested on suspicion of murdering woman in Swindon

Published

12 hours ago

November 23, 2025

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Girl, 13, arrested on suspicion of murdering woman in Swindon

A 13-year-old girl has been arrested on suspicion of murdering a woman in Swindon.

Police said the teenager was detained following an incident in Baydon Close, Moredon, in the Wiltshire town on Friday evening.

Officers responded to reports of disorder inside a house. When they arrived, a woman in her 50s living at the address was found to be not breathing. She was declared dead at the scene.

There were no other reported injuries.

Detective Inspector Darren Ambrose, from Wiltshire Police’s major crime investigation team, said: “This is a serious incident in which a woman has sadly died.

“We have set up a cordon at the address while an investigation is carried out.

“I can confirm that we have arrested a teenage girl in connection with this incident and we are not looking for anyone else.”

Police have asked people not to speculate about the incident online as this could prejudice the case.

A police statement read: “Residents can expect to see an increased police presence in the area while we continue carrying out our enquiries into the woman’s death.

“The suspect remains in custody at this time.”

Police said anyone with concerns should speak with their local neighbourhood policing team, either by emailing or approaching officers in person.

UK

Rail fares to be frozen for first time in 30 years

Published

12 hours ago

November 23, 2025

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Rail fares to be frozen for first time in 30 years

Rail fares are to be frozen for the first time in 30 years, the government has announced.

Ministers promised that millions of rail travellers will save hundreds of pounds on regulated fares, including season tickets and peak and off-peak returns between major cities.

The fare freeze applies to England and services run by English train operators.

People commuting to work three days a week using flexi-season tickets will save £315 a year travelling from Milton Keynes to London, £173 travelling from Woking to London and £57 from Bradford to Leeds, the government said.

The changes are part of Labour’s plans to rebuild a publicly owned Great British Railways. Other planned changes include tap in-tap out and digital ticketing, as well as investing in superfast Wi-Fi.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the government was introducing a freeze on rail fares for the first time in 30 years, which “will ease the pressure on household finances and make travelling to work, school or to visit friends and family that bit easier”.

“We all want to see cheaper rail travel, so we’re freezing fares to help millions of passengers save money,” Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said.

“Commuters on more expensive routes will save more than £300 per year, meaning they keep more of their hard-earned cash.”

Rail unions and passenger groups welcomed the move, praising how it will make travel more affordable for passengers and promote more sustainable travel alternatives.

Eddie Dempsey, general secretary of the Rail, Maritime and Transport union, said: “More affordable fares will encourage greater use of public transport, supporting jobs, giving a shot in the arm to local economies and helping to improve the environment.”

TUC general secretary Paul Nowak said the rail fare freeze “will be a huge relief to working people”.

“This is the right decision, at the right time, to help passengers be able to afford to make that journey they need to take, and to help grow our railway in this country, because the railway is Britain’s green alternative – taking cars and lorries off our congested roads and moving people and goods safely around our country in an environmentally-friendly way,” Mick Whelan, general secretary of the train drivers union Aslef, said.

The Tories welcomed the move but said the government was “late to the platform”.

Shadow transport secretary Richard Holden said: “In government, the Conservatives kept fares on the right track with below-inflation rises and consistently called for no further hikes to protect hard-working commuters.”