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Something strange seems to be going on in the Conservative government.

Recent weeks have seen ministers announce mandatory vaccination to enter nightclubs, speak supportively of businesses that demand workers are jabbed and moot the idea of barring students from university who’ve not been inoculated.

Novel developments for members of the self-professed “freedom-loving” party.

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The question being asked in Westminster is whether this is genuine policy – or just a PR stunt.

“There’s a lot of attempts to drive vaccine uptake and lots of concepts being mooted subtly or not so subtly with no real intent behind them,” said one Whitehall official.

Conservative MPs agree, with several telling Sky News earlier this week they didn’t think plans to restrict access to nightclubs and other events would ever materialise.

One of the proposals has already been shelved, with the government announcing this weekend there are now no plans to use the COVID pass for access to learning.

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Education Secretary Gavin Williamson is understood to have made clear there would have been legal implications and potentially little benefit, given polling shows a vast majority of students say they will have the jab.

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But the fact these ideas are even being suggested is enough to drive some backbenchers potty.

Several MPs have already said they won’t be attending this year’s party conference if they are forced to show their vaccination status.

Others worry about sailing too close to compulsory vaccination and the ethical implications of a heavy-handed approach.

“It was wrong-headed and should have been done by carrots,” says one senior backbencher of the plan for universities.

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Explainer: Are COVID-19 cases really rising?

Those carrots now appear to be sprouting, with companies like Uber and Deliveroo offering discounts to customers who get vaccinated.

Scientists say these approaches are not without risk, but still avoid many of the problems of the negative incentive “stick” strategy.

“They are less likely to lead to perceptions of compulsion and generate a process of ‘reactance’ where people resist in order to reassert their autonomy,” said Professor Stephen Reicher, an advisor to the government on public behaviour.

But as well as the societal impact, there’s also a business impact.

Those in hospitality say Health Secretary Sajid Javid’s initially bullish tone on reopening led to share price boosts and funds flowing in.

Speculative stories about COVID passports disrupt that, with a single front page story potentially undoing weeks of growing confidence.

The calculation in government may be that the longer-term benefit of high vaccine uptake to the economy and society is worth any short-term bumpiness.

But some, like Professor Reicher, worry that neither the carrot nor the stick will be sufficient on their own.

“What is critical is to show people that the authorities are of the community and acting for the community,” he said.

“That is why processes of engagement are generally much more effective than processes of incentivisation.”

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Thiel-backed Erebor wins US approval as Silicon Valley Bank rival emerges

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Thiel-backed Erebor wins US approval as Silicon Valley Bank rival emerges

Thiel-backed Erebor wins US approval as Silicon Valley Bank rival emerges

Erebor’s green light from US regulators is among the most significant bank charter approvals tied to digital assets since the 2023 regional banking crisis.

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China Merchants Bank tokenizes $3.8B fund on BNB Chain in Hong Kong

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China Merchants Bank tokenizes .8B fund on BNB Chain in Hong Kong

China Merchants Bank tokenizes .8B fund on BNB Chain in Hong Kong

CMBI’s tokenization initiative with BNB Chain builds on its previous work with Singapore-based DigiFT, which tokenized its fund on Solana in August.

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

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Chancellor admits tax rises and spending cuts considered for budget

Rachel Reeves has told Sky News she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, in her first interview since being briefed on the scale of the fiscal black hole she faces.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well,” the chancellor said when asked how she would deal with the country’s economic challenges in her 26 November statement.

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Ms Reeves was shown the first draft of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) report, revealing the size of the black hole she must fill next month, on Friday 3 October.

She has never previously publicly confirmed tax rises are on the cards in the budget, going out of her way to avoid mentioning tax in interviews two weeks ago.

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Chancellor pledges not to raise VAT

Cabinet ministers had previously indicated they did not expect future spending cuts would be used to ensure the chancellor met her fiscal rules.

Ms Reeves also responded to questions about whether the economy was in a “doom loop” of annual tax rises to fill annual black holes. She appeared to concede she is trapped in such a loop.

Asked if she could promise she won’t allow the economy to get stuck in a doom loop cycle, Ms Reeves replied: “Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do.”

She said that is why she is trying to grow the economy, and only when pushed a third time did she suggest she “would not use those (doom loop) words” because the UK had the strongest growing economy in the G7 in the first half of this year.

What’s facing Reeves?

Ms Reeves is expected to have to find up to £30bn at the budget to balance the books, after a U-turn on winter fuel and welfare reforms and a big productivity downgrade by the OBR, which means Britain is expected to earn less in future than previously predicted.

Yesterday, the IMF upgraded UK growth projections by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% of GDP this year – but also trimmed its forecast by 0.1% next year, also putting it at 1.3%.

The UK growth prospects are 0.4 percentage points worse off than the IMF’s projects last autumn. The 1.3% GDP growth would be the second-fastest in the G7, behind the US.

Last night, the chancellor arrived in Washington for the annual IMF and World Bank conference.

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The big issues facing the UK economy

‘I won’t duck challenges’

In her Sky News interview, Ms Reeves said multiple challenges meant there was a fresh need to balance the books.

“I was really clear during the general election campaign – and we discussed this many times – that I would always make sure the numbers add up,” she said.

“Challenges are being thrown our way – whether that is the geopolitical uncertainties, the conflicts around the world, the increased tariffs and barriers to trade. And now this (OBR) review is looking at how productive our economy has been in the past and then projecting that forward.”

She was clear that relaxing the fiscal rules (the main one being that from 2029-30, the government’s day-to-day spending needs to rely on taxation alone, not borrowing) was not an option, making tax rises all but inevitable.

“I won’t duck those challenges,” she said.

“Of course, we’re looking at tax and spending as well, but the numbers will always add up with me as chancellor because we saw just three years ago what happens when a government, where the Conservatives, lost control of the public finances: inflation and interest rates went through the roof.”

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

Blame it on the B word?

Ms Reeves also lay responsibility for the scale of the black hole she’s facing at Brexit, along with austerity and the mini-budget.

This could risk a confrontation with the party’s own voters – one in five (19%) Leave voters backed Labour at the last election, playing a big role in assuring the party’s landslide victory.

The chancellor said: “Austerity, Brexit, and the ongoing impact of Liz Truss’s mini-budget, all of those things have weighed heavily on the UK economy.

“Already, people thought that the UK economy would be 4% smaller because of Brexit.

“Now, of course, we are undoing some of that damage by the deal that we did with the EU earlier this year on food and farming, goods moving between us and the continent, on energy and electricity trading, on an ambitious youth mobility scheme, but there is no doubting that the impact of Brexit is severe and long-lasting.”

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