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Any pay-per-view with two title fights is going to capture the attention of the sport, but on Saturday night at UFC 266, it’s the third fight on the card that has most fight fans talking. Nick Diaz will walk to the Octagon for his first fight since 2015 to face Robbie Lawler in a rematch 17 years in the making. What can we expect when he returns?

In the main event of UFC 266, Alexander Volkanovski defends the featherweight title against Brian Ortega. The two spent plenty of time together during the latest season of The Ultimate Fighter, but will that experience impact the outcome? Ortega’s last title fight didn’t go his way — will this time be different?

The other champion on the card, Valentina Shevchenko, hopes nothing will be different in her upcoming fight against Lauren Murphy while Curtis Blaydes may have to adjust his strategy against Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

Brett Okamoto, Marc Raimondi, Mike Coppinger, Jeff Wagenheim and Carlos Contreras Legaspi separate what’s real and what’s not ahead of Saturday night’s pay-per-view.

We’ll be impressed by Nick Diaz in his return

Okamoto: Look, the only answer to this — the real answer to this — is, “I have no idea.” No one does. Diaz wasn’t even that active when he was … active.

Prior to that bogus suspension for marijuana in 2015, which ultimately led to his six-year absence, Diaz had only fought once in the span of 22 months. And when his career was derailed by a — I’ll say it again, bogus — suspension, he veered hard into a civilian lifestyle.

Diaz has not always lived the life of a professional athlete over the past six years. He’s had somewhat of a tortured relationship with fighting in general. He doesn’t love it, but he knows he’s good at it and it’s his means of income. Trying to figure out Diaz’s level of motivation, his reasons for fighting or even his enthusiasm around this return … it’s impossible. And I think that obviously matters a lot, when trying to guess what he’ll look like on Saturday. Because if Diaz doesn’t truly want to be here and he has reservations about being here, that will show.

And if that is the case, then no, we won’t be impressed. We’ll probably say he should never do this again.

I’m genuinely excited and curious about Diaz’s return, but I’m going in with no expectations. This has an equal chance of going really well or really badly.

Brian Ortega will make the most of his second title fight and win

Raimondi: When Brian Ortega first challenged for the UFC featherweight title, against Max Holloway at UFC 231 on Dec. 8, 2018, he was 27 years old and already being dubbed as the UFC’s next golden boy. Ortega was hanging out with actor Robert Downey Jr., getting endorsement deals with high profile companies like Body Armour and — with his good looks, charisma and exciting fighting style — seemed primed to be the promotion’s newest crossover star.

That all hit a speed bump when Holloway beat Ortega by fourth-round TKO. Holloway hit him with everything he had, but Ortega kept coming until the doctor pulled the plug before the fifth round. Ortega showed a ton of heart, but he also showed he wasn’t quite ready yet to become champion. And perhaps those lofty expectations were too much, too soon.

It is no longer too soon for Ortega, which is why I’m saying “real” to this statement. He’s 30 years old and going into this next title challenge, against Alexander Volkanovski on Saturday at UFC 266 in Las Vegas, like a new man. He’s changed up his coaching staff. His striking game has improved drastically. Ortega really showed marked growth in his unanimous decision win over rival “Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung last October. It was arguably the best performance of his career, a fight he controlled from the opening bell.

In four consecutive fights from 2015 to 2017, Ortega finished his opponents in the third round. In almost all of those bouts, Ortega was either losing on the cards when he earned the stoppage or had at least lost a portion of the fight. The showing against “Zombie” was a complete one — and actually the only fight to go to decision of his UFC run. Things were never out of Ortega’s hands then. Jung was supposed to be the better striker, Ortega the Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist. But Ortega befuddled Jung on the feet with a new southpaw stance and crafty techniques and tactics.

Provided he brings that same style against Volkanovski — combined with his innate finishing ability — we could be talking about Ortega, finally, as UFC champion, nearly three years after he was perhaps prematurely crowned as the future 145-pound king.

Valentina Shevchenko will finish Lauren Murphy

Wagenheim: Shevchenko is a 14-to-1 favorite, so it’s a good bet she’ll beat Murphy. But finish her? Let’s look at Shevchenko’s recent history.

The champ has won seven fights in a row, dominating every one of those bouts but alternating between finishes and decisions. The three recent opponents who have gone all five rounds with Shevchenko — Jennifer Maia, Liz Carmouche and Joanna Jedrzejczyk — are all sturdy and resilient. So is Murphy. In 19 career fights, she has never been finished. Then again, Murphy has never been locked inside a cage with Valentina Shevchenko.

Murphy has won five straight and been in a bunch of competitive fights. Half of her most recent wins have come by split decision. I don’t expect her to put up a close fight against Shevchenko, but survive she can.

If I were a betting man, I’d hate to spend 25 minutes holding my breath while hoping for a Shevchenko’s opponent to merely make it to the final horn so I could cash a ticket. But that’s where my money would be. The above statement is not real.

The main event will not be the most exciting fight of the night

Legaspi: Anyone who still thinks that the only chance for Ortega to beat Volkanovski is by submitting him is really wrong. The rivalry between this two fighters has grown for almost a year, and the fact that it was postponed and their time on The Ultimate Fighter only added fuel to that fire.

Ortega is coming off a striking clinic against one of the best in the division — and was gutsy enough to try the same in his first title fight against the self-proclaimed best boxer in the UFC, Max Holloway. Let’s not forget he was also the first one to knock out Frankie Edgar. Ortega probably has the best jiu-jitsu in the top of the featherweight division, but he barely tries to take down his opponents.

This fight could certainly play out as a long stand-up confrontation, because Volkanovski doesn’t want to risk it on the ground. So for me, this fight is likely to deliver a lot of excitement, and for that reason I’m going to say it’s “not real.” I can’t deny that the fans will go wild when Diaz steps inside the Octagon after his layoff, but it’s really hard to tell how competitive this rematch is going to be 17 years later.

There are many other fights that look promising, though. If Dan Hooker makes it for this week’s matchup against Nasrat Haqparast after days of dealing with visa issues, he will recover his spot among title contenders, provided he has a big performance. There’s also Merab Dvalishvili, who will try to make a statement by finishing an opponent for the first time in the UFC. He’ll have to do that against someone who loves to exchange in Marlon Moraes.

Curtis Blaydes has to take Jairzinho Rozenstruik down in order to win

Coppinger: A takedown (or 10) certainly would help Blaydes’ efforts. After all, the NCAA wrestler is a far better grappler than his opponent. If Blaydes can control Rozenstruik on the ground — and along the cage — he can neutralize his foe’s awesome power and avoid the kind of shot that flattened him in his most recent loss to Derrick Lewis.

In Blaydes’ last win, a unanimous decision over Alexander Volkov, Blaydes scored 14 takedowns while allowing just one. His losses to Lewis and Francis Ngannou both featured exactly zero takedowns.

But Blaydes’ finish of Junior Dos Santos was also a stand-up affair, so Blaydes doesn’t need have to rely on his wrestling game to win. So for this fight, at least, I’ll say, “not real.”

If Rozenstruik is going to spring the upset, he surely needs to avoid being dominated on the ground. His takedown defense has proven formidable, with Rozenstruik able to avoid 80% of attempts.

Rozenstruik, a former kickboxer, is the more dangerous striker and loves to keep the fight on his feet. In fact, he’s never recorded a takedown in his eight fights in the Octagon. All of his wins have come via KO/TKO, with his two losses coming against the two best heavyweights in the world (Ciryl Gane and Ngannou).

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‘Incredible’ Tkachuk returns, nets 2 for Panthers

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'Incredible' Tkachuk returns, nets 2 for Panthers

TAMPA, Fla. — Matthew Tkachuk made his long-awaited return to the lineup and was back to his old self quickly on Tuesday night for the Florida Panthers, who opened this postseason the way they ended last postseason: With a win.

Playing for the first time in more than two months after dealing with a lower-body injury, Tkachuk scored two second-period goals in his return game, as the Panthers handled the rival Tampa Bay Lightning 6-2 in this Eastern Conference first-round series opener at Amalie Arena.

Those two goals were both of the power-play variety, the first putting Florida up 4-1 — the second goal for the Panthers in a 14-second span — and the next one pushing the lead to 5-1 midway through the second period.

It was just like old times: Tkachuk got twisted up with Tampa Bay’s Brandon Hagel — someone he fought during the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament — after one whistle, took the game’s first penalty on a roughing call (leading to Tampa Bay’s first goal), then made sure his name was all over the score sheet.

Florida coach Paul Maurice, in his in-game, bench interview with ESPN’s Emily Kaplan, said he was comfortable with what he was seeing from Tkachuk in his first game back and expected him to “be the difference-maker” for the Panthers.

“That’s what he is for us,” Maurice said. “He’s got an incredible set of hands, got an incredible gift for the emotional needs of a game, when you need a hit, when you need a big play. He’s been great for us.”

Sam Bennett and Sam Reinhart also scored for the Panthers, and veteran defenseman Nate Schmidt, not known for his offense, added two more goals, as Florida, which won the Stanley Cup last June, hammered an Atlantic Division foe in front of a sellout crowd, setting up an all-important Game 2 on Thursday.

Tampa Bay goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy will need to be sharper in that game, after a Tuesday performance to forget. The two-time Stanley Cup winner allowed all six goals on just 16 shots, closing with a .625 save percentage. Across the ice, Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky made 20 saves en route to the win.

“The series isn’t won in one game, so there’s a positive. We had a bunch of guys tonight playing their first playoff games, and I thought guys handled it fairly well,” Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper said. “But in the end, we gave up six goals. We’re a pretty decent defensive team, and we have a very good [penalty-kill unit], and we gave up three [goals] on that. … In the end, those are areas of strength of ours, so I’m pretty confident we can button those up, and we’ll be OK.”

Jake Guentzel, in his first season with the club, and Brayden Point scored for Tampa Bay. But the Lightning played the final 33:30 without center Anthony Cirelli, and it showed. There was no immediate word why the 27-year-old center was out.

“We gave up 16 shots, and that’s usually a good night, but tonight wasn’t that. They’re a good team, we know they have good players,” Tampa Bay defenseman Victor Hedman said. “So, for us, it’s all about refocusing, make sure we have a good practice tomorrow, and get ready for the next one.”

Whether Tkachuk would even play in Game 1 wasn’t certain until just before game time. Tkachuk went through practices Saturday and Monday, then took part in the team’s day-of-game skate Tuesday before the decision on his return was made. Maurice even indicated that it could come down to the final few minutes before the 8:48 p.m. start time of the game.

“It’s not really a guy you can put a label on,” Schmidt said of Tkachuk. “He’s such a unicorn of a player. But, more than anything, just how he is in the room, getting the guys fired up for the game, you feel his energy, you feel his excitement.”

Tkachuk hadn’t played for the Panthers since Feb. 8 because of a lower-body injury suffered during the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament two months ago. He missed the team’s final 25 games of the regular season, yet still finished with 22 goals and 57 points — third most on the team in all three categories. He was also second on the Panthers this season with 11 power-play goals.

“There’s no better time to be an athlete,” Tkachuk told Kaplan in a postgame interview, in reference to the postseason. “This is the time of our lives. And just getting a win here in Game 1 is the cherry on top.”

Panthers forward Brad Marchand, acquired at the NHL trade deadline from the Boston Bruins, made his postseason debut for his new team in the win and also played with Tkachuk for the first time. Marchand had an assist and two shots on net in his 17:15 of ice time, and seemed to fit right in with Florida’s dominant forward group.

“Both teams will look at the tape and find things that they can do better,” Maurice said after the win. “But there isn’t an established identity to the series yet.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Limping Lightning seek ‘another level’ after loss

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Limping Lightning seek 'another level' after loss

Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Ryan McDonagh stated the obvious: The 6-2 humbling they suffered against the arch-rival Florida Panthers on Tuesday night was not how they wanted to begin the latest Battle of Florida.

“It’s definitely a salty feeling in here. We didn’t have a great start to this series like we talked about,” the veteran said. “But we know we can be better. We’ve got another level and we’ll find a way to get to that.”

The Panthers took a 1-0 series lead by scoring six times on 16 shots against Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. After Sam Bennett and Jake Guentzel traded goals in the first period, the Panthers scored four straight times — including goals by Nate Schmidt and Matthew Tkachuk that were 14 seconds apart in the second period. Schmidt’s goal was unsuccessfully challenged for goalie interference by the Lightning, earning a delay of game penalty. Tkachuk scored on the ensuing power play to make it 4-1.

“Yeah, you’ve got to stop that bleeding,” defenseman Victor Hedman said. “We give up that third one. The challenge that didn’t go our way and we give up one right away. That’s tough, but we got to make sure it stops there and not give up the fifth one as well.”

Tkachuk, returning to the Florida lineup for the first time after being injured in February’s 4 Nations Face-Off, scored his second of the game on the power play at 9:44 of the second period to make it 5-1 for the Panthers, en route to the 6-2 rout.

“You see him being able to step into a game and be impactful,” Schmidt said of Tkachuk. “That’s who he is. He’s a playoff player.”

Lightning coach Jon Cooper, who has won two of the three Battle of Florida playoff series against the Panthers, appreciated his team’s effort despite the result.

“I love this team. They try. They’re always trying, and they did that again tonight. Sometimes the results aren’t there. Most nights they are,” he said. “We can sit here and dissect this game all we want. The bottom line is we lost. Whether you lose 6-2 or you lose 1-0 in overtime, we lost the game. Turn the page and move on. Let’s sit here in 48 hours or whatever it is and dissect that one. This one’s over.”

The Panthers are the reigning Stanley Cup champion. Cooper noted that a number of his players were seeing their first playoff action in Game 1.

“We had a bunch of guys tonight playing their first playoff games, and I thought guys handled it fairly well. But in the end we gave up six goals,” he said. “The series isn’t won in one game, so there’s a positive.”

That said, it took just one game for the Panthers to flex on the Lightning defense and special teams, going 3-for-3 on the power play. One huge factor in that domination was an injury to Lightning center Anthony Cirelli, their best defensive forward and a key to their penalty kill. He left the game after taking two shifts in the second period. There was no update on his status after the game.

Game 2 is Thursday night at Amalie Arena in Tampa.

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Amaya blast keys Cubs, ‘something you dream of’

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Amaya blast keys Cubs, 'something you dream of'

CHICAGO — Catcher Miguel Amaya was confident he’d be jogging around the bases when he blasted a two-out, ninth-inning baseball high into the Wrigley Field sky with his Chicago Cubs trailing 10-9 to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday night.

He was right — but just barely.

Amaya’s 388-foot shot landed in the center field basket, sending the home crowd into a frenzy as Dodgers closer Tanner Scott blew the save. And one inning later, the Cubs won the game 11-10 on an Ian Happ run-scoring single off Noah Davis, capping yet another wild affair at Wrigley.

According to Statcast, Amaya’s blast would have been a home run in exactly one park in the majors.

“As a baseball player, its something you dream of,” Amaya said. “As soon as I hit, I felt it was out but then I saw the center fielder getting into position to catch it. Then it was, ‘Oh my god, I have to run,’ but it was enough to get out.

“I love those basket balls.”

It was the second time in five days that both teams playing at Wrigley scored 10 or more runs; on Friday, the Cubs beat the Diamondbacks 13-11 thanks to a six-run eighth inning that was preceded by a 10-run frame by Arizona.

On Tuesday, the Cubs led 5-3 after the first inning, but the Dodgers took a 10-7 lead thanks to a five-run seventh aided by an error from third baseman Gage Workman. As has been the case all month, the Cubs kept fighting back. Right fielder Kyle Tucker brought them within one with an eighth-inning home run before Amaya tied it in the ninth.

“They’ve done some amazing things and some resilient things, most importantly,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said of the team’s play on its homestand. “You win games like that early in the season and it’s a great carry forward for the rest of the season.”

The Cubs improved to 15-10 thanks to a high-powered offense that leads the league in scoring at just over six runs per game. They’ve tallied 10 or more runs in seven games already, their most through 25 games of a season since 1895, according to ESPN Research. No other team this season has done it more than 3 times.

Counsell credited his bullpen in shutting down the Dodgers in the final few innings.

The Cubs also did well facing Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani. He went 0 for 4, lowering his batting average against them this year to .167. Against all other teams, he’s hitting .302.

He also went 0-for-3 against Shota Imanaga and is now 0-for-10 against the Cubs starter.

“The next 10 at-bats he might get 10 hits,” Imanaga said. “It’s been a small miracle that it’s happened 10 times in a row.”

The Cubs keep on performing miracles at the plate both in the colder conditions this month and in the few games where the weather has been favorable for hitters. That included Tuesday, when it was 71 degrees with the wind blowing out at first pitch. It led to six home runs, none bigger than Amaya’s.

“Basket hurt us a couple times last year,” Counsell said with a smirk. “It was helpful tonight.”

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