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The clock was ticking toward midnight on Sunday when we got the official word: The Ravens are in the driver’s seat in the AFC bracket. Their 16-10 victory over the Browns elevated them to the top spot in the AFC, replacing the Titans and just ahead of the surging Patriots.

Are the Ravens the best team in the AFC? It’s way too early to say that. But for one week, at least, we can say that the Ravens rose to the challenge.

In more ways than one, the NFL’s Week 12 playoff picture is a mess. It’s foolhardy to try identifying the top two or three teams in the AFC at this point, while on the NFC side it’s impossible to say whether there are seven legitimate playoff teams in the making. For now, the 5-6 Vikings are clinging to the No. 7 spot, among a total of six teams that have five or six wins. If Washington beats the Seahawks on Monday night, it will bring that number to seven.

Let’s take a closer look at where the league stands after all but one game of Week 12. As always, we’ll use ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and a bit of our own gut instincts to guide us.

Jump to: AFC | NFC

AFC

FPI chances to make playoffs: 92%
FPI chances to win division: 65%

The quarterback of the AFC’s top seed threw four interceptions Sunday night — and his team still won. You can view that as a sign of strength for Lamar Jackson‘s Ravens, or the relative inability of the Browns to capitalize. But at the end of the night, the Ravens had supplanted the Titans atop the AFC.

Their presence at the top of the rankings reflects a conference that is truly up for grabs among a half-dozen teams. Can the Ravens truly hold off the Patriots, Titans, Chiefs and Bills? We don’t often say this, given the competitiveness of the rivalry, but the Ravens have a strong chance of advancing their quest when they play the reeling Steelers in Week 13.

Next up: at Steelers


FPI chances to make playoffs: 93%
FPI chances to win division: 33%

The Patriots keep giving us reasons to think they’re one of the best teams in the NFL. Sunday’s 23-point victory over the Titans was their sixth victory in a row. They’ve won by at least 18 points in five of those, and overall, they lead the NFL with a point differential of plus-144. And it’s wild that this has all come with rookie quarterback Mac Jones, who is playing well but isn’t among the league’s top 10 in Total QBR.

Amazingly, at least to some, the Patriots can begin the process of locking down the AFC East in Week 13 when they travel to Buffalo. FPI doesn’t like their chances of winning the division, much less earning home-field advantage, but they’re all legitimate possibilities for the Patriots. Had the Ravens lost on Sunday night, the Pats would have ended Week 12 with the AFC’s top seed.

Next up: at Bills


FPI chances to make playoffs: 99%
FPI chances to win division: 98%

The good news for the Titans is that a two-game losing streak hasn’t really damaged their standing in the AFC South, where they have a two-game lead with five games left to play. They’ll have a bye in Week 13 and then return to play the Jaguars and Steelers, two teams who are going in the wrong direction. The question with the Titans is not whether they’ll make the playoffs, but rather — given their health and the results of their past two games — whether they can be considered likely to make a deep run. At the moment, the answer is very much in doubt.

Next up: vs. Jaguars (Week 14)


FPI chances to make playoffs: 80%
FPI chances to win division: 56%

The Chiefs will return from their bye week with their playoff positioning unchanged. But they now have a full game lead in the AFC West, where the other three teams are all 6-5. With that said, the division remains very much in play. Four of the Chiefs’ final six games will be against AFC West foes, including two against the Broncos and one each against the Raiders and Chargers.

Next up: vs. Broncos


FPI chances to make playoffs: 62%
FPI chances to win division: 28%

The Bengals look like a different team than the one that lost consecutive games heading into its Week 10 bye. Since then, they’ve defeated the Raiders and Steelers by a combined 57 points. They’ve gotten themselves to the point where FPI likes their chances of at least making the playoffs, and they have a roughly one-in-four chance of winning the AFC North. Had the Ravens lost Sunday night to the Browns, the Bengals would have supplanted them atop the division. That’s how close they are right now.

Next up: vs. Chargers

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0:42

Joe Mixon rushes for 165 yards with two touchdowns in the Bengals’ dominant victory over the Steelers.


FPI chances to make playoffs: 94%
FPI chances to win division: 67%

Will a convincing win Thursday in the Superdome be enough to pull the Bills out of a midseason spiral? They entered Week 12 having lost two of their past three games, including an inexplicable defeat to the Jaguars and a 26-point loss to the Colts. The Bills better hope they’ve figured things out, because they’re about to head into a brutal stretch of their schedule. They will play the red-hot Patriots twice in four weeks, with a game at the Buccaneers mixed in there, as well.

Next up: vs. Patriots


FPI chances to make playoffs: 52%
FPI chances to win division: 25%

Sunday’s loss to the Broncos was the Chargers’ fourth defeat in their past six games. They’ve clearly turned in the wrong direction after a 4-1 start, but for now, they’re still among the AFC’s top seven thanks to their head-to-head victory over the Raiders in Week 4. As to whether they can stay here is another story. Had the Browns won Sunday night, they would have supplanted the Chargers at the No. 7 spot, and all told, the Chargers haven’t been playing consistent playoff-level football since mid-October. They’re teetering on the edge.

Next up: at Bengals


In the AFC hunt

Las Vegas Raiders (6-5)

We can do nothing but tip our cap to the Raiders, whose post-Jon Gruden slide seemed well underway during a three-game losing streak entering Thursday’s game at the Cowboys. But they went into AT&T Stadium and won a war of attrition and now have 10 days to prepare for a winnable home game against Washington in Week 13. FPI says they have a 21% chance to play beyond Week 18.

Denver Broncos (6-5)

The Broncos came out of their bye with a dominant performance against the Chargers, their third win in their past four games. It drew them even with the rest of AFC West and set them up to at least have a chance down the stretch. In fact, FPI has Denver at 32% to make the playoffs. Four of the Broncos’ remaining six games are against divisional rivals, starting in Week 13 at the Chiefs.

Indianapolis Colts (6-6)

The Colts’ three-game winning streak ended with an odd home loss that featured 27 consecutive pass plays from their offense, presumably in part to beat a Buccaneers defense that was geared to stop tailback Jonathan Taylor. We found out, to no surprise, that quarterback Carson Wentz can’t carry this team. They’ll have a chance to get back on track, however, in Week 13 against the Texans. Indianapolis still holds a 42% chance to make the playoffs, per FPI.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5-1)

Yeesh. The Steelers don’t look like anything close to a playoff team after a 41-10 loss to the Bengals, their third consecutive game without a win. FPI is giving them just a 10% chance to make the playoffs, and the path won’t get any easier in Week 13 against the Ravens.

Cleveland Browns (6-6)

The Browns had a golden opportunity to get back into the playoff picture Sunday night but couldn’t win in Baltimore despite intercepting Jackson four times. They would have finished Week 12 in the No. 7 spot if they had won. Instead, they’re heading into their bye with losses in two of their past three games, and they will face the Ravens again when they return in Week 14. FPI gives Cleveland a 19% chance of playing postseason football this season.

NFC

FPI chances to make playoffs: 99%
FPI chances to win division: 96%

The Cardinals entered Week 12 knowing they would also exit it at the top of the NFC, no matter what happened in between. And now comes the final playoff push, presumably with quarterback Kyler Murray and receiver DeAndre Hopkins back in the lineup.

They’ll need to be at full strength. The Cardinals’ strength of their remaining schedule ranks No. 18 in the NFL, based on FPI, but the eyeball test suggests it’s more difficult than that. Three of the five games are on the road, and two are against teams that currently have winning records (Rams and Cowboys). Plus, their Week 16 opponent (Colts) will be a tough out, as well. Fortunately for the Cardinals, they have the league’s best record on the road (6-0) through Week 12.

Next up: at Bears


FPI chances to make playoffs: 99%
FPI chances to win division: 98%

The Packers rebounded from a Week 11 loss in Minnesota to put themselves in great position heading into their bye. They’re right on the heels of the Cardinals, with whom they own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers now has an extra week to rest his fractured toe — and possibly even have surgery on it — and injured left tackle David Bahktiari could potentially get back on the field.

And of their five remaining games, three will be at Lambeau Field, where the Packers are 5-0 this season. One of the two road games will be at Ford Field, where they’ll play the winless Lions. The Packers are very much in the running to be the NFC’s top team, both on the field and in the playoff standings.

Next up: vs. Bears (Week 14)

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0:18

Aaron Rodgers beats Jalen Ramsey on the edge for the 1-yard touchdown to get the Packers on the board.


FPI chances to make playoffs: 99%
FPI chances to win division: 98%

The Buccaneers have now won consecutive games, scoring 68 points in the process, since a two-game losing streak had everyone around the NFL losing their minds. They got some help Sunday from the Colts, who tried to protect a 10-point halftime lead by ignoring tailback Jonathan Taylor and throwing the ball on 27 consecutive plays, but it’s hard to argue that the Buccaneers aren’t back on track. Their remaining strength of schedule ranks No. 22, and at the moment, it includes only one opponent with a winning record (Bills, Week 14).

Next up: at Falcons


FPI chances to make playoffs: 95%
FPI chances to win division: 89%

Uh-oh. The Cowboys were expected to take off once they got quarterback Dak Prescott back from injury. Instead, they have lost three of their past four games, most recently to the Raiders on Thanksgiving Day. As we have said often in recent years, the NFC East leader is protected by poor competition from their division rivals. The Eagles’ loss Sunday to the Giants means no one is within two games of the Cowboys. But it remains an open question whether the Cowboys will head into the playoffs as a genuine contender or will be in the postseason simply because they’re the least-flawed team in a weak division.

Next up: at Saints


FPI chances to make playoffs: 91%
FPI chances to win division: 4%

At this point, it’s fair to ask if the Rams are going to make the playoffs at all. They have now lost three games in a row, with quarterback Matthew Stafford throwing a pick-six in each of them, and appear in significant disarray. Even coach Sean McVay seemed overwhelmed by the moment Sunday at Lambeau Field, making an inexplicable decision on run on third down with no timeouts on their final possession, forcing a hurried field goal attempt as the clock ticked.

They’ll get the best chance they could to regroup in Week 13, with a home game against Jacksonville, but overall, their remaining schedule is the fourth-most difficult in the league.

Next up: vs. Jaguars


FPI chances to make playoffs: 76%
FPI chances to win division: 1%

The 49ers are figuring things out at just the right time. They have won three consecutive games and four of their past five, and Sunday’s victory over the Vikings will supply them with an important head-to-head tiebreaker should it be needed at the end of the regular season. The strength of their remaining schedule ranks No. 24, and an argument could be made that they’re playing better right now than all but one of their final six opponents (Bengals in Week 14). At this rate, they’ll overtake the Rams in the NFC West and the playoff standings in a matter of weeks.

Next up: at Seahawks


FPI chances to make playoffs: 48%
FPI chances to win division: 2%

The only thing keeping the Vikings in the playoff picture is a complex set of tiebreakers that ultimately broke on their conference record (4-3), which is better than the Falcons (2-5). Washington could knock them out of the top seven on Monday night with a victory over the Seahawks.

The Vikings’ loss to the 49ers on Sunday illustrated most of the reasons why the Vikings have some work ahead to get into the postseason, much less make a run. Their defensive personnel is decimated; they played Sunday without their starting defensive line and then lost linebacker Anthony Barr during the game. Running back Dalvin Cook appeared to suffer a significant shoulder injury Sunday, and quarterback Kirk Cousins can’t be trusted to play consistently well in pressure situations. The Vikings are fortunate to have road games coming soon at the Lions and Bears, but wins in both of those games might not be enough if someone below them catches fire.

Next up: at Lions


In the NFC hunt

Atlanta Falcons (5-6)

The Falcons started 1-3 and then went on another 1-3 bender before holding on for a seven-point victory Sunday over the Jaguars. As improbable as it might seem, the Falcons are one game out of the sloppy NFC wild-card situation, thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Saints. Stranger things have happened, but they have a pretty significant obstacle in Week 13 when they host the Buccaneers. FPI has Atlanta at just 5% to qualify for the postseason.

New Orleans Saints (5-6)

That’s now four consecutive losses for the Saints since starting quarterback Jameis Winston suffered a season-ending knee injury. Their offense had zero punch Thursday night against the Bills, and they’re now looking up at the NFC playoff field. They’ll play the Cowboys in Week 13, but the one bright spot is that four of their final six opponents have losing records. FPI says New Orleans has a 35% chance to make the playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)

There’s no way to sugarcoat it. The Eagles flunked a pretty basic test of playoff worthiness on Sunday, scoring just seven points in a loss to the equally anemic Giants. Had they won, the Eagles would have put themselves squarely in the wild-card mix while also putting some pressure on the Cowboys in the NFC East. Instead, it’s fair to ask if they’ll squander one of the NFL’s easiest remaining schedules, which continues in Week 13 at the Jets. Philadelphia still has a 24% chance to make the playoffs, per FPI, but their division winner likelihood fell to 5% this weekend.

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0:35

On the Eagles’ final play, Jalen Hurts lets it fly to Jalen Reagor. Reagor can’t haul in the catch, sealing the win for the Giants.

Carolina Panthers (5-7)

The Panthers have now lost seven of nine games since a 3-0 start. Their fade from the playoff picture is nearly complete, but they’ll have a bye week followed by a winnable game in Week 14 against the Falcons to delay the inevitable for a little longer. FPI is giving them 3% of hope.

Washington Football Team (4-6)

It’s not often that a four-win team is in the playoff picture in Week 12, but if it beats the Seahawks at home Monday night, Washington will have the same record as the Vikings, Falcons and Saints. FPI thinks Washington has a 14% chance of finishing in the NFC’s top seven.

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Santa Anita postpones Friday’s card due to fires

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Santa Anita postpones Friday's card due to fires

Santa Anita Park postponed Friday’s racing program until Jan. 16 because of poor air quality forecast in Arcadia, California, near the Eaton Fire.

The California Horse Racing Board approved the rescheduling of the 10-race card, which will be run with the horses previously entered.

“While Santa Anita continues to remain well outside of any active fire area, the smoke from the wildfires is affecting all of Los Angeles County,” track general manager Nate Newby said Thursday. “We also want to respect the impact that this tragedy has had on many of our community, including our horsemen and women and our own Santa Anita team, who have been devastated by these fires.”

A decision on Saturday and Sunday’s racing will be made Friday.

The track was handing out N-95 masks to all backstretch and frontside workers as well as protective eyewear because of the smoke.

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How a Sugar Bowl scramble exemplified the best of Riley Leonard at Notre Dame

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How a Sugar Bowl scramble exemplified the best of Riley Leonard at Notre Dame

The easiest way to understand why quarterback Riley Leonard has Notre Dame on the verge of its first national title game in more than a decade is to watch him run.

Really, any run will do. But perhaps the best — or at least, most recent — example is the run on third-and-7 with 5:53 left in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. The Irish were nursing a 23-10 lead, chewing up the final minutes in a game of keep-away, and Leonard needed a conversion. He took the snap, took a half-step forward, then tucked the ball and darted outside. He slid out of a tackle behind the line with a stiff-arm, then outran a defender to the perimeter. At the line to gain, he met Georgia star Malaki Starks head-on. Starks went low. Leonard leaped — flew almost — in a head-first jailbreak for the marker.

Leonard soared over Starks, landed 3 yards beyond the line-to-gain, popped up with the ball in his hand and signaled for the first down.

The crowd went wild. His teammates went wild. Leonard, the kid from a little town in southwest Alabama, at least reached something close to wild.

“Everybody keeps telling me to stop doing that,” Leonard said of the hard run. “I did it. And it worked out. But we’re in the playoffs, so it’s like — put your butt on the line.”

Notre Dame’s drive ate another four minutes off the clock, and after stuffing Georgia on downs, the Irish celebrated a Sugar Bowl win — their biggest victory in more than 30 years. Now, their next biggest game is a date with Penn State in the playoff semifinals on Thursday in the Capital One Orange Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN).

Notre Dame is here for many reasons, but perhaps the biggest one is Leonard’s drive to win at all costs. Not that anyone doubted Leonard’s competitiveness when he arrived at Notre Dame in January as an injured transfer from Duke. But what he has shown in the past three months since the Irish last lost a football game — a loss Leonard took full responsibility for — is that he’ll put his butt, his shoulder, his head and anything else he needs to on the line if it means winning a football game.

“It’s in his DNA,” said offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock. “I knew he was a competitive guy. That’s a strong trait we knew he had. But it’s so much greater than I’d imagined. He’s a winner, and he brings people around him to his level. And I think that’s the biggest compliment you can give a quarterback.”

Those runs like the Sugar Bowl scramble are the height of playoff football, but Leonard has been doing this since he was young. He played some wide receiver growing up, and he loved going across the middle. He torments defenders at practice, teammate RJ Oben said, because he’ll run hard even wearing a noncontact jersey. He played baseball, too, and his father, Chad, jokes that Riley knew how to slide feet-first then, but he refuses to do it on the football field.

“I hold my breath waiting for him to get up,” said Heather Leonard, his mother, “but when they need something, he’s always going to get it.”

It’s the dichotomy of Riley’s approach. He is overlooked, polite, smiley and understated, and yet at the same time he’s utterly driven to win at a level even other players find hard to capture.

Perhaps that’s the secret to those runs. He’s underestimated, and he’s relentless.

“I don’t understand why I’m hard to tackle, honestly,” Leonard said. “I don’t have very good juke moves. I’m very tall. Not intimidating, at least on the field. But guys just miss.”

Plenty of people missed on Leonard coming out of high school.

Back in Fairhope, Alabama, he played football and baseball, but basketball was his passion. College basketball was the dream until COVID-19 hit and scuttled Leonard’s best opportunities to impress college recruiters. That’s when he started to seriously consider football as an alternative. Turns out, one of his coaches was pals with former Duke coach David Cutcliffe, who liked what he saw in Leonard. Duke was Leonard’s only FBS scholarship offer.

Leonard’s first college start came on Nov. 13, 2021. It was 17 degrees in Blacksburg, Virginia. Winds swirled, and the crowd was ferocious. Leonard was so out of sorts, he forgot his mouthguard leaving the locker room, then amid the team’s run onto the field for kickoff, he turned and retreated, pushing his way through a sea of charging teammates to retrieve it, like an overwhelmed performer retreating from the stage.

Leonard threw for just 84 yards in that game. Three weeks later, Cutcliffe was fired at Duke after the team finished 3-9. Mike Elko arrived for 2022, and Leonard opened fall camp that year in the midst of a QB competition, which he narrowly won before the opener.

He won that game. Then another. And he kept on winning.

Duke finished 2022 a surprising 9-4, Leonard started gaining legitimate attention from NFL scouts, and after upending Clemson in the 2023 opener, the attention reached a fever pitch.

None of it fazed the kid from Fairhope.

Back in his high school days, he began a tradition with his mom. He wanted to avoid the pitfalls of success and stay grounded in the work, so he asked her to text him with the same message before every game: “You suck.” He now wears a green wristband with the same words. Leonard’s biggest fear has always been forgetting how hard it is to win. Appreciating the difficulty is his secret weapon.

Football delivered another reminder of its fickle nature just as the wave of Riley-mania reached its zenith in Durham. Duke was 4-0, and Leonard had the Blue Devils on the brink of a program-defining win over Notre Dame. But the Irish broke a late run to take the lead, Leonard injured his ankle in a failed comeback attempt, and over the next eight months, he struggled to get back on the field, endured three surgeries, and ultimately transferred to South Bend, joining the program that had effectively ended his miraculous run at Duke.

For Leonard, Notre Dame represented a chance to finish his college career at a level that might have seemed unimaginable when it began.

“I wanted an opportunity to reach my potential as a player,” he said. “I’m at a point in my career now where I have the most confidence in my game. I understand this offense probably more than any offense I’ve ever been in.”

It didn’t start out that way though.

Notre Dame opened its season with a hard-fought win over Texas A&M, but one in which Leonard and the offense struggled to move the ball through the air. A week later, the one-dimensional attack proved costly. Northern Illinois‘ defense utterly flummoxed Leonard, and the Huskies stunned Notre Dame 16-14. It was arguably the biggest upset of the college football season, and any hopes for the playoff were on life support.

That version of Riley Leonard looked lost.

“I don’t even think I’d recognize the player that was playing earlier on in the season,” he said recently.

Leonard isn’t into making excuses, but he had missed all of spring practice and much of the summer. He simply hadn’t had enough reps with his new team. He was frustrated — even if he rarely let it show, Heather said.

“That was one of the hardest weeks of his life,” Heather said. “It definitely took a toll on him, but he also knew he had to move on.”

Leonard promised his team he’d be better. He took the blame for the loss, and he assured his teammates he’d approach the rest of the season the same way he does those third-down runs. He would leave nothing in the tank.

“He took it on his shoulders,” said tight end Mitchell Evans. “You could see it in the way he practices, his mindset, his confidence — he has grown in a remarkable way. That’s what you have to do to be the Notre Dame quarterback.”

After four games, Leonard had yet to throw a touchdown pass in a Notre Dame uniform.

But in the 10 games since, Leonard has completed 68% of his throws, has an 81.1 Total QBR, and has 17 touchdown passes to just four picks. And the 13-1 Irish haven’t lost again.

“Riley has shaken off the ‘he’s just a runner’ thing people were saying about him,” said tailback Jeremiyah Love, “and we’re more explosive in the passing game. The running game is better than it was, and the offensive line has come together. We’re way better now.”

And so what if it was still a run — a hard, physical, acrobatic run — that served as Leonard’s highlight in Notre Dame’s biggest win of the year? He was hurting after the NIU loss because he felt like he had let his team down, but he had never listened to any of the criticism about his arm. He said he doesn’t care how he’s perceived.

“The moment I start to say I need to throw this many yards or score this many touchdowns is when I get off track,” he said. “My job is to win the football game however that may look.”

He is two victories away from claiming his place among the greatest winners in the history of one of college football’s most storied programs. That’s a long way from the basketball courts in Fairhope.

But Leonard has never paid much attention to how far off his destination might seem. He likes to dream big, and if there are obstacles in his way, well, Georgia’s defenders found out how that goes.

The one thing that has changed in the waning moments of his unlikely college football career is Leonard is trying to take some time to reflect.

“I don’t think I would’ve written the story any differently,” Leonard said. “It’s cool now to go back and look at it. I don’t really do that too often, but I’m very proud of the person I’ve grown into.”

He still hasn’t watched film from that NIU game, but he said he will once the year’s over, because it’s a moment he now cherishes, one that helped him get to where he is now. It’s supposed to be difficult, he said. That’s what makes it fun.

“I try to remind myself to appreciate it — like, you’re living your dream,” he said. “I don’t want to live my dream and then end up thinking you shouldn’t have taken that for granted. But moments like these make me appreciate it.”

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How a Sugar Bowl scramble exemplified the best of Riley Leonard at Notre Dame

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How a Sugar Bowl scramble exemplified the best of Riley Leonard at Notre Dame

The easiest way to understand why quarterback Riley Leonard has Notre Dame on the verge of its first national title game in more than a decade is to watch him run.

Really, any run will do. But perhaps the best — or at least, most recent — example is the run on third-and-7 with 5:53 left in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. The Irish were nursing a 23-10 lead, chewing up the final minutes in a game of keep-away, and Leonard needed a conversion. He took the snap, took a half-step forward, then tucked the ball and darted outside. He slid out of a tackle behind the line with a stiff-arm, then outran a defender to the perimeter. At the line to gain, he met Georgia star Malaki Starks head-on. Starks went low. Leonard leaped — flew almost — in a head-first jailbreak for the marker.

Leonard soared over Starks, landed 3 yards beyond the line-to-gain, popped up with the ball in his hand and signaled for the first down.

The crowd went wild. His teammates went wild. Leonard, the kid from a little town in southwest Alabama, at least reached something close to wild.

“Everybody keeps telling me to stop doing that,” Leonard said of the hard run. “I did it. And it worked out. But we’re in the playoffs, so it’s like — put your butt on the line.”

Notre Dame’s drive ate another four minutes off the clock, and after stuffing Georgia on downs, the Irish celebrated a Sugar Bowl win — their biggest victory in more than 30 years. Now, their next biggest game is a date with Penn State in the playoff semifinals on Thursday in the Capital One Orange Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN).

Notre Dame is here for many reasons, but perhaps the biggest one is Leonard’s drive to win at all costs. Not that anyone doubted Leonard’s competitiveness when he arrived at Notre Dame in January as an injured transfer from Duke. But what he has shown in the past three months since the Irish last lost a football game — a loss Leonard took full responsibility for — is that he’ll put his butt, his shoulder, his head and anything else he needs to on the line if it means winning a football game.

“It’s in his DNA,” said offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock. “I knew he was a competitive guy. That’s a strong trait we knew he had. But it’s so much greater than I’d imagined. He’s a winner, and he brings people around him to his level. And I think that’s the biggest compliment you can give a quarterback.”

Those runs like the Sugar Bowl scramble are the height of playoff football, but Leonard has been doing this since he was young. He played some wide receiver growing up, and he loved going across the middle. He torments defenders at practice, teammate RJ Oben said, because he’ll run hard even wearing a noncontact jersey. He played baseball, too, and his father, Chad, jokes that Riley knew how to slide feet-first then, but he refuses to do it on the football field.

“I hold my breath waiting for him to get up,” said Heather Leonard, his mother, “but when they need something, he’s always going to get it.”

It’s the dichotomy of Riley’s approach. He is overlooked, polite, smiley and understated, and yet at the same time he’s utterly driven to win at a level even other players find hard to capture.

Perhaps that’s the secret to those runs. He’s underestimated, and he’s relentless.

“I don’t understand why I’m hard to tackle, honestly,” Leonard said. “I don’t have very good juke moves. I’m very tall. Not intimidating, at least on the field. But guys just miss.”

Plenty of people missed on Leonard coming out of high school.

Back in Fairhope, Alabama, he played football and baseball, but basketball was his passion. College basketball was the dream until COVID-19 hit and scuttled Leonard’s best opportunities to impress college recruiters. That’s when he started to seriously consider football as an alternative. Turns out, one of his coaches was pals with former Duke coach David Cutcliffe, who liked what he saw in Leonard. Duke was Leonard’s only FBS scholarship offer.

Leonard’s first college start came on Nov. 13, 2021. It was 17 degrees in Blacksburg, Virginia. Winds swirled, and the crowd was ferocious. Leonard was so out of sorts, he forgot his mouthguard leaving the locker room, then amid the team’s run onto the field for kickoff, he turned and retreated, pushing his way through a sea of charging teammates to retrieve it, like an overwhelmed performer retreating from the stage.

Leonard threw for just 84 yards in that game. Three weeks later, Cutcliffe was fired at Duke after the team finished 3-9. Mike Elko arrived for 2022, and Leonard opened fall camp that year in the midst of a QB competition, which he narrowly won before the opener.

He won that game. Then another. And he kept on winning.

Duke finished 2022 a surprising 9-4, Leonard started gaining legitimate attention from NFL scouts, and after upending Clemson in the 2023 opener, the attention reached a fever pitch.

None of it fazed the kid from Fairhope.

Back in his high school days, he began a tradition with his mom. He wanted to avoid the pitfalls of success and stay grounded in the work, so he asked her to text him with the same message before every game: “You suck.” He now wears a green wristband with the same words. Leonard’s biggest fear has always been forgetting how hard it is to win. Appreciating the difficulty is his secret weapon.

Football delivered another reminder of its fickle nature just as the wave of Riley-mania reached its zenith in Durham. Duke was 4-0, and Leonard had the Blue Devils on the brink of a program-defining win over Notre Dame. But the Irish broke a late run to take the lead, Leonard injured his ankle in a failed comeback attempt, and over the next eight months, he struggled to get back on the field, endured three surgeries, and ultimately transferred to South Bend, joining the program that had effectively ended his miraculous run at Duke.

For Leonard, Notre Dame represented a chance to finish his college career at a level that might have seemed unimaginable when it began.

“I wanted an opportunity to reach my potential as a player,” he said. “I’m at a point in my career now where I have the most confidence in my game. I understand this offense probably more than any offense I’ve ever been in.”

It didn’t start out that way though.

Notre Dame opened its season with a hard-fought win over Texas A&M, but one in which Leonard and the offense struggled to move the ball through the air. A week later, the one-dimensional attack proved costly. Northern Illinois‘ defense utterly flummoxed Leonard, and the Huskies stunned Notre Dame 16-14. It was arguably the biggest upset of the college football season, and any hopes for the playoff were on life support.

That version of Riley Leonard looked lost.

“I don’t even think I’d recognize the player that was playing earlier on in the season,” he said recently.

Leonard isn’t into making excuses, but he had missed all of spring practice and much of the summer. He simply hadn’t had enough reps with his new team. He was frustrated — even if he rarely let it show, Heather said.

“That was one of the hardest weeks of his life,” Heather said. “It definitely took a toll on him, but he also knew he had to move on.”

Leonard promised his team he’d be better. He took the blame for the loss, and he assured his teammates he’d approach the rest of the season the same way he does those third-down runs. He would leave nothing in the tank.

“He took it on his shoulders,” said tight end Mitchell Evans. “You could see it in the way he practices, his mindset, his confidence — he has grown in a remarkable way. That’s what you have to do to be the Notre Dame quarterback.”

After four games, Leonard had yet to throw a touchdown pass in a Notre Dame uniform.

But in the 10 games since, Leonard has completed 68% of his throws, has an 81.1 Total QBR, and has 17 touchdown passes to just four picks. And the 13-1 Irish haven’t lost again.

“Riley has shaken off the ‘he’s just a runner’ thing people were saying about him,” said tailback Jeremiyah Love, “and we’re more explosive in the passing game. The running game is better than it was, and the offensive line has come together. We’re way better now.”

And so what if it was still a run — a hard, physical, acrobatic run — that served as Leonard’s highlight in Notre Dame’s biggest win of the year? He was hurting after the NIU loss because he felt like he had let his team down, but he had never listened to any of the criticism about his arm. He said he doesn’t care how he’s perceived.

“The moment I start to say I need to throw this many yards or score this many touchdowns is when I get off track,” he said. “My job is to win the football game however that may look.”

He is two victories away from claiming his place among the greatest winners in the history of one of college football’s most storied programs. That’s a long way from the basketball courts in Fairhope.

But Leonard has never paid much attention to how far off his destination might seem. He likes to dream big, and if there are obstacles in his way, well, Georgia’s defenders found out how that goes.

The one thing that has changed in the waning moments of his unlikely college football career is Leonard is trying to take some time to reflect.

“I don’t think I would’ve written the story any differently,” Leonard said. “It’s cool now to go back and look at it. I don’t really do that too often, but I’m very proud of the person I’ve grown into.”

He still hasn’t watched film from that NIU game, but he said he will once the year’s over, because it’s a moment he now cherishes, one that helped him get to where he is now. It’s supposed to be difficult, he said. That’s what makes it fun.

“I try to remind myself to appreciate it — like, you’re living your dream,” he said. “I don’t want to live my dream and then end up thinking you shouldn’t have taken that for granted. But moments like these make me appreciate it.”

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