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For all of the twists and turns and surprises and upsets the college football season invariably delivers, it’s easy to still assume the final chapters have been prewritten, and in the end, the same heroes will emerge victorious.

Just think what life has been like for Tennessee fans who, through 15 years of futility against Alabama, have seen their SEC brethren win 11 national titles, including six by these Crimson Tide, while the only bit of hardware they’ve scored for themselves was a lone championship of life.

Think of what it must’ve felt like to see Lane Kiffin’s surreal exit and Derek Dooley’s tenure and Butch Jones’ sideline trash can and Jeremy Pruitt’s bags of cash (and also those three days when Greg Schiano was going to be the coach before Twitter nixed the deal) and know that the man on the other side of the field on Saturday had never lost on the Third Saturday of October.

Think of what it must be like to slip into a pair of orange overalls and chug cheap beer on a flotilla and sing “Rocky Top” for the 200th time, only to stare down a scoreboard that shows another blowout loss at the hands of the mighty Tide.

Who, faced with such horror, could still have hope?

And yet, on the 16th try, the story had a new ending.

To see that sea of orange pour onto the field after Tennessee’s 52-49 win on Saturday, razing the goal post and hoisting it in the air in a moment of mass catharsis was part celebration and part exorcism, a shedding of the demons that have made this program one of the most consistent punchlines in college football for the past 16 years.

On Saturday, the joke was on Alabama.

When Tennessee jumped out to a 28-10 lead, it was an emphatic show of strength, serving notice that Alabama was hardly invincible, and Nick Saban wanted to speak to the manager.

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Nick Saban was livid on the sideline after Alabama muffed a punt in the second quarter.

When Alabama roared back in the second half and took a 35-34 lead following a controversial pass interference call, there would’ve been every reason for Tennessee to assume this would be yet another kick in the face, and yet Jalin Hyatt refused to roll over. Instead, he hauled in second-half scores of 60, 78 and 13 yards in a remarkable show of resilience.

When Alabama’s late field-goal try sailed wide right, what remained among the nearly 102,000 in attendance was not resignation but hope.

Bryce Young returned from injury and was dazzling, throwing 455 yards, but when Hendon Hooker delivered a dagger to Bru McCoy with 2 seconds left on the clock, the game-winning field goal was little more than deus ex machina. The tide had turned, and the Tide wouldn’t survive.

Tennessee’s win, in some ways, offered a spark for so many upstarts. As the Volunteers marched toward that game-winning kick, TCU was completing a frenetic comeback to beat Oklahoma State in overtime. Syracuse moved to 6-0 for the first time since the Reagan administration with an emphatic win over NC State and now has a showdown with undefeated Clemson up next. Ole Miss and UCLA are undefeated, too, and either would represent a stark departure from the college football status quo if they can keep winning through the next seven weeks, too.

None of this is to suggest that the kings have been dethroned. Clemson flexed its defensive muscle against Florida State. Georgia demolished Vanderbilt. Michigan and Ohio State again appear to be the class of the Big Ten. Even Alabama remains the clear favorite in the SEC West, and the best Tennessee might hope for is a rematch in Atlanta in December.

But for one Saturday at least — the third Saturday in October, as it were — it felt like there could be a new conquering hero at the end of this story.

And hey, don’t worry too much, Alabama. That coveted championship of life is still up for grabs.


Michigan’s old-school domination

In the Big Ten, Ohio State is a unicorn. It’s a hard-living, fast-driving, take-no-prisoners action flick. The Buckeyes are strobe lights and glow sticks. The rest of the league is a Tupperware party.

Except maybe Michigan.

The Wolverines thumped No. 10 Penn State 41-17 on Saturday, and that makes it hard to lump them into the rest of the Big Ten pack. They’re something different — even if we’re still not quite sure exactly how different. That Michigan was the better team Saturday is unquestionable. That Penn State managed 17 points was a near miracle. The Nittany Lions held the ball for just 18:04, and roughly 17:50 of that time was spent in third-and-long.

Instead, it was the Michigan ground game that offered true fireworks. Donovan Edwards ran for 173. Blake Corum ran for 166. Both had runs of 60-plus yards. It has been a winning formula for the Wolverines to run their monster backs into a brick wall again and again and know that, ultimately, the wall will give up.

And yet, cast against Ohio State’s seemingly unstoppable offense and suddenly rejuvenated D, it’s fair to ask if Michigan’s formula is ultimately good enough to win at the highest level.

Ohio State is dynamic and flashy. Michigan feels a bit like its coach’s preferred pants — not quite formal, not quite casual, completely functional and so bland it’s oddly interesting.

Last year, that was enough. Ohio State’s flash was impressive when it worked and a train wreck when it didn’t. Good or bad, it was interesting.

Michigan could be dull and predictable, but it rarely disappeared in big moments, and that was enough to punch a playoff ticket. And even after that, it was still clear that improvement was needed, and so Jim Harbaugh went through the motions of a QB battle perfectly designed to achieve the desired result. And now with JJ McCarthy, Michigan is again good and reliable and… mostly using the same formula it did a year ago.

To look down the Big Ten standings at teams like Penn State, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin or Purdue is to sift through a freezer full of vanilla ice cream. To look at Ohio State is to see a bottomless tub of 31 flavors with sprinkles and hot fudge. And what is Michigan? Not vanilla, clearly. But perhaps French vanilla?

Saturday’s dominance of Penn State was a statement. In the country’s second-richest (and, therefore, second-best) conference, Michigan stands out from the crowd. It is a team that made the College Football Playoff just a year ago, then seemed almost an afterthought all offseason, returned to the field with a plethora of wins against cupcakes that all added up to… what? Even after Saturday, are we ready to include Michigan on the same tier as the Buckeyes?

Perhaps the problem is us. Perhaps we’re fools, constantly dazzled by the shiniest object, and Ohio State polishes its chrome with the best of them. Perhaps we simply cannot appreciate the physical, run-it-down-your-throat-then-keep-running approach of the Wolverines.

After all, the Big Ten is about to cash a $1-billion-a-year TV check in exchange for long field goal drives (15-, 19-, 15- and 14-play efforts in Illinois’ 26-14 win Saturday) and Brian Ferentz ruining nepotism for a generation of spoiled rich kids. Certainly there’s an audience, and perhaps we simply lack the refined palette.

Maybe the takeaway from Michigan’s dominance of Penn State isn’t to suggest that the Wolverines are fun or ready for a showdown with that team down south to decide who makes the playoff. Perhaps all that needs to be said is that Michigan is 7-0, and we’re all going to have to keep watching.


Midseason Awards

We’re seven weeks into the season — the official halfway point — and that means it’s time to take stock of some of the storylines that have defined the 2022 campaign. So, put on your tuxedo t-shirt, pour yourself a tall Miller High Life (the champagne of beers) and settle in for our very formal presentation of the midseason’s best.

Best second-string QB: TCU’s Max Duggan

Could Duggan go from opening the season on the bench to earning an invite to the Heisman ceremony at season’s end? After losing the starting QB job to Chandler Morris, Duggan has emerged as one of the country’s most prolific players, with 16 passing TDs, four more on the ground and just one interception on the season. Saturday, Duggan helped TCU erase a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit against Oklahoma State to win 43-40 in double overtime.

Best renaming of a stadium: JMA Wireless Dome

After years of frigid performances at the Carrier Dome, Syracuse changed the name of its home stadium, and in doing so, changed its fortunes. The Orange thumped NC State 24-9 at the now-JMA Wireless Dome on Saturday, moving to 6-0 for the first time since 1987. Coincidentally, JMA Wireless is also the only company that will provide service for Jim Boeheim’s brick Motorola mobile he first bought in 1987 and still uses. Time is a flat circle.

Best party guest: Sam Pittman

Pittman lectured us on the need to bring top-shelf beverages to parties earlier this year, but BYU is prohibited by the school’s code of conduct from serving up any of Pittman’s favorites. KJ Jefferson returned to action to throw for 367 yards and five touchdowns in a 52-35 win over the Cougars. On the upside, Pittman left a case of O’Douls in visiting locker room because he’s just that good a party guest.

Worst preseason prediction: Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea

Lea said the Commodores would eventually become the best team in America.

Vandy lost to Georgia on Saturday 55-0, as Stetson Bennett IV threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns. There’s still time for Clark to be proven correct, we suppose, but by the time it happens, there’s a decent chance Stetson Bennet V is ready to take over the Bulldogs’ offense.

Best new trend: Firing your coach

Colorado nixed Karl Dorrell on Oct. 2, took a week off, and returned to pick up win No. 1 on Saturday (the last FBS team to get its first win of the year) with a 20-13 overtime victory over Cal. Five teams have axed their coaches so far this season. Before the firings, those teams were a combined 1-15 vs. FBS foes. Since firing their coaches, they’re a far more respectable 7-5. Then look back at teams that parted ways with coaches before October concluded last year, and nearly every one is in a better place, including USC and TCU among the nation’s best teams. So, the evidence is clear. Write a very big check, fire your coach, win a bunch of games. Someone tell Auburn.

Most disappointing twist: Sun Belt Cinderellas

The season began with Appalachian State in the role of America’s favorite Cinderella, but James Madison stole that crown with a Week 4 shocker in Boone. JMU then ran its record to 5-0 and garnered a top-25 ranking, but the Cinderella run came to an end Saturday. Georgia Southern scored with 1:01 to play to take a 45-38 lead then picked off JMU QB Todd Centeio to secure the win. The loss marked both the first of the season for the Dukes, as well as James Madison’s most embarrassing moment in Georgia since the Treaty of Ghent.

Best feel-good story: DJ Uiagalelei’s re-emergence

Perhaps no player in the country took more heat last year than Uiagalelei, who entered the season as a Heisman contender and an NIL darling, starring in a national ad campaign, and finished it with nine TD passes and 10 interceptions. Despite the struggles, Dabo Swinney stuck by his QB this offseason, and Uiagalelei has rewarded that trust by leading the Tigers to a 7-0 start, while accounting for 21 touchdowns on the season, including four in the Tigers’ 34-28 win over Florida State on Saturday. And the truly good thing about all this is that there’s no chance Swinney will rub it in anyone’s face that he was right and everyone else was wrong.

Best team in Mississippi: Jackson State

Ole Miss is 7-0 after beating Auburn 48-34 on Saturday. Still, giving up 34 points to Auburn is actually the same as a loss, so they’re scratched from winning this honor. Meanwhile, Mike Leach’s Mississippi State was demolished by Chris Rodriguez (196 yards and two TDs) and Kentucky, so the Bulldogs are out, too. That leaves Coach Prime’s squad, which may not be SWAC enough for some people’s standards, but after a 48-8 win over Bethune-Cookman in which Shedeur Sanders threw for five TDs, the Tigers get the prize basket, which includes a six-pack of Barq’s root beer and a complementary interview for the soon-to-be-vacant Auburn head-coaching job.


No D for USC

There was a simple formula for Lincoln Riley during his years at Oklahoma: Take a great QB, mix him with some terrific skill position guys, then take away any semblance of a competent defense, and — voila! — you’ve got yourself a team capable of losing by 20 in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff.

Well, the formula might be slightly more complicated at USC.

Yes, Riley has his superstar QB. Caleb Williams was exceptional. And yes, he’s got a ton of talent on offense, from Travis Dye to Mario Williams to Jordan Addison. And yes, he’s still decided it’s defense optional. And against Utah on Saturday, that turned out to be a big problem.

USC jumped out to a 14-0 lead, didn’t trail until the Utes converted a 2-point try with 48 seconds remaining, and yet, it wasn’t enough.

Utah’s final six drives included five touchdowns and a fumble at the USC 3-yard line. The four drives in the second half included 43 plays, 18 minutes, 32 seconds of possession time, six third-down conversions and two fourth-down conversions and a seemingly endless string of self-inflicted wounds by the Trojans’ defense.

Credit certainly goes to Cameron Rising, who came through again and again, including the touchdown run and two-point try to win the game. He threw for 415 yards, ran for 60 and accounted for five touchdowns in the win, while receiver Dalton Kincaid caught 16 balls for 234 yards.

The bad news for USC is that the loss puts them at the bottom of the Pac-12’s top tier, behind UCLA, Oregon and, now, Utah. The good news is, if USC can just expedite its realignment plans, this defense is still plenty good enough to win the Big Ten West.


Heisman Five

1. Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker

Late in 2020, Hooker was benched at Virginia Tech and essentially shown the door. Since then, he’s blossomed into one of the most prolific QBs in the country, throwing for 385 yards and five touchdowns on Saturday, and is now deserving of his spot atop the Heisman rankings. And what’s happened to Virginia Tech, you ask? Well, rumor has it the program folded, all records of its existence have been erased by the government, and Frank Beamer and Bud Foster now travel the country in a van solving mysteries.

2. Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud

Ohio State was off this week. Stroud still spent his Saturday making crank calls to Mel Tucker, just to continue to assert his dominance.

3. Alabama QB Bryce Young

It’s almost impossible to overstate just how good Young is, and how much he means to Alabama. But even in a game in which he threw for 455 yards and led the Tide back from down 18, he wasn’t the most impressive QB on the field.

4. USC QB Caleb Williams

The Trojans lost at Utah, but it’s hard to blame Williams. He threw for 381, ran for 57 more, and had five TD passes on the game. USC’s defense, on the other hand, couldn’t get off the field in the second half. Reminder to Lincoln Riley: You need to spend NIL money to get transfers on *both* sides of the ball.

5. UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson

UCLA was off Saturday, so Chip Kelly spent the day critiquing the technique of a guy twirling a sign outside a cash-for-gold business in West Hollywood.

Others receiving votes: Max Duggan, Blake Corum and whoever survives film study with Nick Saban on Sunday


Sooners bounce back

Brent Venables finally got a Big 12 win Saturday. It probably felt a bit like getting your dinner free because you finished a 96-ounce steak. Yeah, it’s a win, but there’s bound to be some vomit soon afterward.

With Dillon Gabriel back in the saddle at QB, the Oklahoma offense was exceptional, racking up 701 yards of offense — the Sooners’ most in a Big 12 game since 2018. That’s the good news.

The bad news for Venables, the defensive mastermind, is Oklahoma surrendered 42 points to Kansas, the fourth straight game the Sooners have allowed 40 or more.

This season has served as something like a “Twilight Zone” episode, where Venables rubbed the lamp of some diabolical genie. After a decade leading Clemson’s staunch defense, he finally landed his dream job, returning to Oklahoma as head coach. The cost? His defense will make Jason Bean look like Joe Burrow.

But hey, a win is a win, and Oklahoma now has one in conference play, and no matter what happened last week, at least Sooners fans can still remind Texas that they actually beat Kansas.


Under-the-radar play of the day

Coastal Carolina entered Week 7 as one of just two remaining undefeated teams outside the Power 5. Unfortunately, no one told the Chanticleers’ defense.

Grayson McCall threw for 358 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, but it was not nearly enough.

Old Dominion running back Blake Watson carried 18 times for 256 yards and three touchdowns, including scoring runs of 25, 58 and 67 yards.

On the 67-yard run that put ODU up 42-21, Watson hits a crowd of Chanticleers defenders, who each stumble and flail like a guy trying to make his way to the bar at Ocean Annie’s at 2 a.m.

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Blake Watson crosses goal line for 67-yard touchdown


The most college football thing to happen Saturday

A quarterback who looks like he played base for Foreigner in the early 1980s threw a touchdown pass to a receiver who looks like he played rhythm guitar for .38 Special on that same tour, then the receiver, Jordan Whittington, celebrated with a really big cow — as one does.

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Jordan Whittington scores the Texas touchdown and celebrates with Bevo the mascot.


Big bets and bad beats

  • Iowa State had its share of chances to knock off No. 22 Texas on Saturday, with QB Hunter Dekkers turning the ball over once in the end zone and, on the Cyclones’ final drive, fumbling deep into Texas territory. In the end, Iowa State lost 24-21, but for bettors who had the Cyclones +15.5, it was of little concern. Matt Campbell’s run of success as a touchdown (or more) underdog in Big 12 play continues to be a near lock. Iowa State has now covered in 15 of its last 16 games when a dog of seven points or more in conference play.

  • With their 24-9 win over NC State, Syracuse is 6-0, bowl eligible and, with a preseason win total of five, have officially hit the over at the season’s halfway point. Syracuse joins UConn (2.5), Kansas (2.5), Vanderbilt (2.5) and Duke (3) as teams to have already eclipsed preseason predictions.

  • It wasn’t just Knoxville where Tennessee fans were celebrating. One BetMGM bettor laid down a cool $100,000 on the Volunteers to win outright at +240. That return will buy a really nice victory cigar.

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Do Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy belong in Cooperstown? Breaking down the contemporary era ballot

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Do Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy belong in Cooperstown? Breaking down the contemporary era ballot

With the release of the 2026 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot earlier this week, we’ve officially entered Cooperstown deliberation season.

There are now two ballots up for consideration. While the writers’ process tends to soak up most of the attention, the contemporary baseball era committee ballot — announced Nov. 3 — is more urgent and intriguing. The results will be determined by a yet-to-be-named committee just before the upcoming winter meetings in Orlando, Florida, and announced on Dec. 7.

Though the writers have until the end of the year to determine their choices for the primary ballot, the era committee process will be upon us not long after the coming Thanksgiving holiday. Each of the Hall’s era committees meet every three years, and this year, the contemporary era committee is considering player candidates from 1980 on. It’s the stronger ballot; the eight candidates average 74.1 career bWAR, while the 33 candidates on the primary ballot average 41.3. Even if you just take the top eight on the main ballot, that group averages 70.4.

Much of the attention has been focused on two candidates: Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy. Heck, the Murphy constituency has its own web site, which among other things features documentaries narrated by country singer Jason Aldean and sportscaster Ernie Johnson.

I get it. Mattingly and Murphy were MVPs in the 1980s who attracted legions of fans in their time, many of whom considered one or the other their favorite player. As the captain of the New York Yankees, Mattingly had a huge following, while Murphy’s fan base was national thanks to the Atlanta Braves’ omnipresence on SuperStation WTBS, as it was known then. I have a Murphy model ballglove I got in junior high that I still use all these years later.

Still, the attention sphere around this ballot should be fixed on two other players, who might just be respectively the best hitter and best pitcher who ever played.

Let’s go to the bWAR leaderboard.

2025 ERA COMMITTEE BALLOT

Barry Bonds (162.8 bWAR)
Roger Clemens (139.2)
Gary Sheffield (60.5)
Jeff Kent (55.4)
Dale Murphy (46.5)
Carlos Delgado (44.4)
Don Mattingly (42.4)
Fernando Valenzuela (41.4)

We all know why Bonds and Clemens (and Sheffield) remain Hall candidates rather than Hall members, but that’s all the more reason that we should be on fire, right now, relitigating the issues surrounding their candidacies. It’s as if even those who support the candidacies of Bonds and Clemens in particular have slipped into numb acceptance in a “they should be in, but we all know how it is” sort of way.

The thing about this cycle is that the stakes have changed. Last year, the Hall announced a tweak to their era committee process, something they’ve done many times over the decades. As things stand now, this could be the second-to-last shot for Bonds and Clemens — ever.

The new rule:

“Beginning in 2025, any candidate who appears on a ballot and does not receive votes from at least five of the 16 voters will not be eligible to be placed on the ballot within the Era Committee’s following three-year cycle. Additionally, beginning in 2025, any candidate that does not receive at least five of 16 votes in multiple appearances on Era Committee ballots will not be eligible for future ballot consideration.”

So if Bonds, Clemens or Sheffield fall short of five ballots out of the 16 that will be cast in Orlando, they won’t be eligible the next time their era group comes up in 2028. Then 2031 will be their last chance, if they are nominated.

Most fans are firmly entrenched on this issue. To me, the idea that the Hall of Fame would not include baseball’s all-time home run king and one of the top five pitchers ever, when both are eligible and both have official playing records that are intact, means it will forever be less than what it should be. Given the new guidelines, it’s a shadow that would loom over 25 Main Street forever.

At any rate, only 16 people will comprise the committee that will deliberate over the era ballot in Orlando. We don’t yet know who they are — this will be announced in early December — but the makeup of the committee will tell you a lot about how things are likely to go. It always does, which has always been the primary problem with the various incarnations of the veterans and era committees over the years.

To move from committee to Cooperstown, all of the candidates will need to be named on at least 12 of the 16 ballots. But each member is limited to three names. All eight of the players on ballot have their advocates, so even without the looming presence of Bonds and Clemens, it’s a tough road.

There is no one right way to approach this, but over time, I’ve developed a method to working through how to deal with these ballots — whether it’s an era ballot or the writer’s ballot. These are only exercises to inform my writing about the process, as I have never cast a Hall of Fame vote.

I think of the process as a kind of flow chart consisting of three regions, which are: 1. Eligibility; 2. Objective case; 3. Deep dive.

Each region works as a kind of funnel: You filter out some players, others slip through, unless their cases become clear. At each juncture, you’re asking, “Who’s in?” and “Who’s out?” If the player falls in neither category, he slips through the funnel into the next region.

Let’s apply this approach to the current era ballot.


Region 1: Eligibility

For our purposes as voters (let’s all call ourselves that to get into the spirit), this is done for us. We can only vote for those on the ballot. Write-in votes are not permitted.

So why bother to break this out? It’s all about the character clause:

“Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.”

Some of these things are more concrete than others. We don’t have time for a debate on moral philosophy, but for me the key is simply this: Any baseball writer, commentator, reporter, historian, player, manager, executive or anyone else who finds themselves puzzling over a Hall of Fame ballot is qualified to assess baseball. The rest, as former commissioner Faye Vincent once opined, is “hopelessly vague.”

These things can mean different things to different people, but I believe that the time for deciding whether certain transgressions eliminate a candidate from Hall consideration should fall during the pre-ballot process. You don’t want certain people in your Hall of Fame? Then don’t put them on the ballot. Once they land on the ballot, then it’s all about the baseball part of a person’s story.

The Hall does eliminate from consideration anyone on the ineligible list — those banned from the game — so there are acknowledged limitations. But if the player lands on a ballot, then for me the case moves onto the matters related to winning baseball games and accolades, things that are all a matter of the sport’s official record.

As for this era ballot, obviously the eligibility region neither anoints anyone, nor rules out anyone. So all eight move onto the next region.


Region 2: Objective case

Far more has been written about the objective judgment of Hall of Fame candidates than any other consideration. And let’s face it, this is the fun part.

I want to be clear about one thing: WAR should never be the only consideration for Hall membership. Neither should win shares or home runs or hits or win probability added, or pitcher won-loss record or career saves. You must look at a player’s career holistically and in context, using various criteria and then go from there. In fact, the Hall’s guidelines explicitly prohibit the inclusion of anyone based strictly on some predetermined objective standard.

What we’re looking for are the outliers, both positive and negative — those who are no-brainers to get in, and those whose cases aren’t strong enough to move them into our third region. There won’t be any eliminations in this section today, but this step would help us sort out the primary ballot.

As for no-brainers, you can guess where this is headed.

Bonds: He ranks fourth all-time in bWAR (162.8), first in home runs (762), fifth in OPS (1.051), first in walks (2,558), first in runs created (2,892) … and so on. Recognition in one’s own time is a crucial indicator when looking at an era candidate, and of course Bonds has that too. His seven MVP awards are three more than anyone else and he ranks first in award shares for MVP voting.

Clemens: He ranks eighth in bWAR (139.2) and third in pitching bWAR (138.7), won 354 games, ranks third on the strikeout list (4,672) and ranks first in award shares for Cy Young voting.

Yeah, they’re in. These are the performance records of no-doubt Hall of Famers who should not be on this ballot in the first place. Either they should have been in long ago, or they should have been deemed ineligible. But here they are, and their cases remain as clear-cut as ever.

Everyone else moves onto the final region.


Region 3: Deep Dive (aka The Keltner List)

Now we’re into the gray area — candidates who might be Hall worthy or might not. Because of the presence of two no-brainers on the ballot, and the limitation of only being allowed to list three candidates, we’re down to one precious slot.

The Keltner List is a series of questions developed by Bill James in his seminal book on the Hall of Fame, “The Politics of Glory.” The questions are all closed-ended, so for each we land on yes or no. We’ll run through the questions and list the “yes” players for each one. Then we’ll tally it up and see where we land.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?

Remember, we’ve already anointed Bonds and Clemens above, so they are not subject to any of these questions. As for the rest, I give credit for this one to Mattingly and Murphy.

It’s not clear-cut, but Murphy won back-to-back MVPs and would clearly have been in any “best player” conversation during that time (1982 and 1983) and perhaps beyond. Mattingly was AL MVP in 1985, and from 1984 to 1986 he created 20 more runs than any other player in baseball and won two Glove Gloves. Many would have argued he was baseball’s best player at that time.

Yes: Mattingly, Murphy

2. Was he the best player on his team?

This is a yes for everyone except Kent, whose best seasons came as Bonds’ teammate. Kent did win NL MVP in 2000, but hitting behind Bonds (49 homers, .440 OBP) was a boost to his stat line and Bonds had a higher bWAR even in that season.

Perhaps worth mentioning is Valenzuela, who can at least stake claim to this category for his rookie season (1981) when he won the NL Cy Young Award and led the champion Los Angeles Dodgers in bWAR.

Yes: Sheffield, Murphy, Delgado, Mattingly, Valenzuela

3. Was he the best player in baseball (or in the league) at his position?

Everyone gets a yes here. Kent, Murphy and Mattingly won MVP awards. Valenzuela won a Cy Young. These are strong indicators. Sheffield was baseball’s best right fielder in 2003, at the very least. He was probably the top third baseman in 1992. Delgado was the top AL first baseman once or twice. Frankly, for a ballot like this one, this criteria is a fairly low bar.

Yes: Sheffield, Kent, Murphy, Delgado, Mattingly, Valenzuela

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Increasingly, because of the larger playoff formats of the recent era, I’d fold playoff appearances and performance into this question. The murky part is the “a number of” component. Murphy played on a lot of lousy teams and got into only one playoff series. Same for Mattingly, though he raked when he got there. Delgado had a huge 2006 postseason for the New York Mets but that was his only playoff appearance.

I’m giving a yes here to Valenzuela and Sheffield for coming up big for championship teams. Kent didn’t get a ring but hit well over 49 postseason games.

Yes: Valenzuela, Sheffield, Kent

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

This is a yes for all of them, as all played regular roles well into their 30s. Mattingly’s career was truncated because of his ongoing back trouble, but that shortened his peak more than anything. He still played until he was 34 and was the Yankees’ regular first baseman the entire time.

Yes: Sheffield, Kent, Murphy, Delgado, Mattingly, Valenzuela

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

As long as Bonds and Clemens are on the outside, this question probably will remain a no for everyone who becomes subject to this inquiry.

Yes: None

7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

This is where we turn to Jay Jaffe’s JAWS data as it exists at baseball-reference.com. The answer for all is: No. None of our remaining six really come all that close to the average standards of existing Hall of Famers at their positions. There are some comparable Hall of Famers, but not most. This is not surprising, as an era ballot is by definition a second-chance process.

Yes: None

8. Do the players’ numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

James’ systematized this question in an ingenious way, and we’ll lean on his standard of a score of 50 for our six hopefuls. We’re left with two players who clear that bar.

Yes: Sheffield, Kent

9. Is there evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

I’m going to focus on peak value, which I’ve always weighed close to equal with career value, though with a higher bar. (Think: Sandy Koufax and his ilk of short-career greats.)

This helps Mattingly. His peak bWAR (35.7) is still below the Hall average at first base, but it’s better than David Ortiz and Orlando Cepeda, and virtually even with Tony Perez, Fred McGriff and Frank Chance. These are all Hall of Famers. Delgado (34.5 peak bWAR) isn’t far back, so it’s really about where you want to draw the lines.

Meanwhile, Sheffield had a higher peak bWAR (38.0) than Hall of Famers Dave Winfield, Dave Parker, Enos Slaughter, Willie Keeler and Kike Cuyler, plus some other 19th century types further down the list. When you consider that Sheffield topped 500 homers (509) and has a career bWAR (60.5) that is borderline, his case is building.

Finally, Murphy gets a similar bump. His peak bWAR (41.2) ranks 18th among center fielders. He’s above quite a few Hall of Famers.

Yes: Sheffield, Mattingly, Murphy

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

No one can claim to be the best hitter or pitcher not in. Zeroing in on specific positions, using JAWS, you can’t quite get there for any of the six. Even if you discount active players and PED-associated candidates at first base, Mattingly and Delgado still have to deal with the specter of Keith Hernandez, John Olerud, Will Clark and others who, at the very least, are hard to separate. Kent is blocked in this area by Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich, to start. None of the six clear this bar.

Yes: None

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP Award? If not, how many times was he close?

We’ll fold in Cy Young voting for Valenzuela and defer to the awards-share figures. We have award winners — Valenzuela, Mattingly, Murphy and Kent — and those are enough for a yes. Sheffield had three top-three MVP finishes and had more MVP shares than any of the three who won the award. Delgado just missed winning the AL MVP Award in 2003.

Yes: Sheffield, Kent, Murphy, Delgado, Mattingly, Valenzuela

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star Games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go into the Hall of Fame?

Delgado played in only two All-Star Games and there aren’t many Hall of Famers with only two ASG appearances. Everyone else played in many All-Star Games and land in peer groups comprising quite a few Hall of Famers.

Yes: Sheffield, Kent, Murphy, Mattingly, Valenzuela

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

Yes: Sheffield, Kent, Murphy, Delgado, Mattingly, Valenzuela

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

All of these players were historic in different ways, not all of them good. But I’m going to stay positive here and award one yes in a category that I view as extra credit. That goes to Valenzuela, whose impact in Latin America in general and Mexico in particular was immense, and it was pretty significant in Southern California as well.

Yes: Valenzuela

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

And so we come back, at the end, where many want to begin the discussion. And here, I’m OK with getting into traits such as clubhouse leadership and things like the Roberto Clemente Award and other areas of community impact. When you are comparing similar candidates, those are separating qualities and, I would argue, are germane to the primary task of baseball careers: winning games, pennants, and championships, but also establishing an identity in conjunction with the teams on which you play.

Even so, I’m loath to judge these players in these areas for the most part, so I will seek hard evidence. There, we find that Mattingly was a Yankees team captain. Murphy and Delgado were Clemente Award recipients.

Yes: Mattingly, Murphy, Delgado


So who gets the nod?

The Keltner List is meant to help you arrive at a thumbs-up or thumbs-down for each candidate put through that ringer. But here I’m taking a different approach. We’ve got three spots. Two of those were claimed early on by Bonds and Clemens, leaving me with one slot.

Well, the Keltner List left three players that landed nine yes votes among the 15 questions: Sheffield, Murphy and Mattingly. All of them are worthy Hall of Famers. But we have to whittle it down, so it comes down to picking one.

My pick: Murphy

Murphy had the highest peak value of the trio and had a stint in the conversation as the best player in the sport. He was an all-around player, as his five Gold Gloves will attest. His reputation in the sport, while not the top-line consideration for me, is something I very much honor.

I wish it didn’t have to be only three and I will always believe that all Hall votes shouldn’t be space-limited by rule. Either someone is a Hall of Famer, or they aren’t. But for now, we have only so many lines to fill in and I’d fill mine with Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Dale Murphy.

Whether you agree with this approach probably comes down to your stance on the character clause. For me, this is the simple, direct way to approach the murkiest and most glorious of all baseball debates — whether a player’s career merits Hall of Fame induction.

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Source: Jets goalie Hellebuyck to miss 4-6 weeks

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Source: Jets goalie Hellebuyck to miss 4-6 weeks

The Winnipeg Jets will be without star goalie Connor Hellebuyck for four to six weeks as he undergoes a minor arthroscopic procedure on his knee, a source confirmed to ESPN.

Hellebuyck has been dealing with the injury since training camp. Winnipeg coach Scott Arniel said the goalie has tried to play through it but felt soreness after games. The Jets and their star goalie felt it was best to address it now opposed to having it linger any longer. His surgery is scheduled for Saturday.

Hellebuyck, 32, has won the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s top goaltender for two straight seasons and was trying to become the first netminder since Hall of Famer Dominik Hasek (1996-99) to win the award three straight times.

Overall, Hellebuyck has three Vezina Trophy wins and has been a finalist for the award five times.

He’s 8-6-0 with a .913 save percentage and a 2.51 goals-against average in 14 games for the Jets, who are third in the Central Division with a .632 points percentage. Hellebuyck last played Saturday at Calgary, stopping 31 of 34 shots and then three more in the Jets’ shootout win over the Flames.

Winnipeg recalled goaltender Thomas Milic from the AHL Manitoba Moose, and he will tandem with backup goalie Eric Comrie in Hellebuyck’s absence.

Hellebuyck is expected to be the starting goaltender for Team USA at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy in February. He served in that role for the Americans at the 4 Nations Face-Off last season, losing in the gold medal game to Canada.

His injury was originally reported by TSN.

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NHL Power Rankings: 1-32 poll, each team’s quarter-season MVP

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NHL Power Rankings: 1-32 poll, each team's quarter-season MVP

With another week of the 2025-26 NHL season in the books, ESPN’s panel of voters continues to believe the Colorado Avalanche are the top team in the league.

Beyond No. 1, there were some major swings this week, including the first top-10 appearance by the Chicago Blackhawks in quite some time, as Connor Bedard & Co. continue to be in the mix for a playoff spot with a quarter of the season complete.

Speaking of the quarter-season mark, as part of this week’s rankings we’ve identified the most valuable player for each team through 25% of the season.

How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday.

Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Nov. 14. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.

Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 82.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Nathan MacKinnon. With all due respect to the monster season thus far from Cale Makar, we have to give the nod to MacKinnon, who is leading the league in both points (36) and goals (16).

Next seven days: @ NSH (Nov. 22), @ CHI (Nov. 23), vs. SJ (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 70%

Quarter-season MVP: Seth Jarvis. Who else but the Hurricanes’ rising superstar, who continues to play in all situations and hover around a point-per-game pace while doing so.

Next seven days: @ WPG (Nov. 21), @ BUF (Nov. 23), vs. NYR (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 64.3%

Quarter-season MVP: Leo Carlsson. The Ducks’ selection of Carlsson at No. 2 overall in the 2023 draft over Adam Fantilli was puzzling to some observers. It is puzzling no more, as the 20-year-old Swede is at the front of the proverbial Flying V for a Ducks team that is in the mix atop the Pacific Division.

Next seven days: vs. VGK (Nov. 22), vs. VAN (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 69%

Quarter-season MVP: Mikko Rantanen. The Stars didn’t need to see how well Rantanen would perform on their roster before inking him to a long-term deal; that contract was signed the same day he was acquired from the Hurricanes. So far, so good.

Next seven days: @ CGY (Nov. 22), @ EDM (Nov. 25), @ SEA (Nov. 26)

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Mikko Rantanen scores 300th career goal for Stars

Mikko Rantanen lights the lamp to score his 300th career goal for Stars.


Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 67.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Jesper Bratt. Unfortunately, Bratt and the other Devils have experience playing without Jack Hughes in the lineup. They’ll get more of it for the next several weeks following No. 86’s “freak injury” at a steakhouse in Chicago last week.

Next seven days: @ PHI (Nov. 22), vs. DET (Nov. 24), vs. STL (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 63.2%

Quarter-season MVP: Mark Scheifele. The Jets’ top-line center has never hit the 50-goal or 100-point plateau in his NHL career, coming closest with 42 goals in 2022-23 and 87 points in 2024-25. He’s currently on pace for 50 tallies and 109 points.

Next seven days: vs. CAR (Nov. 21), vs. MIN (Nov. 23), @ WSH (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 65%

Quarter-season MVP: Jack Eichel. Though he has fallen off of his perch atop the goals and points races, Eichel led the Knights with 24 points through 19 games, making a strong push for his first Hart Trophy nod.

Next seven days: @ ANA (Nov. 22), @ UTA (Nov. 24), vs. OTT (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 63.2%

Quarter-season MVP: Sidney Crosby. Prior to the season, the trade rumors ran wild with potential new destinations for No. 87. Instead, he’s led a resurgent Penguins team to a spot near the top of the Metro Division, including six power-play goals for the NHL’s top man-advantage attack.

Next seven days: vs. MIN (Nov. 21), vs. SEA (Nov. 22), vs. BUF (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 60%

Quarter-season MVP: Connor Bedard. The Blackhawks might have something in this kid, after all. With 29 points through 19 games in his third NHL season, Bedard is on pace for 118 — and Chicago is right in the mix for a playoff spot after a quarter of the season.

Next seven days: @ BUF (Nov. 21), vs. COL (Nov. 23), vs. MIN (Nov. 26)

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1:18

Connor Bedard nets hat trick for Blackhawks

Connor Bedard scores three goals for Chicago on Tuesday night against Calgary.


Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 59.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Dylan Larkin. Larkin put the hockey world on notice with his performance during the 4 Nations Face-Off last season and has carried at least some of that momentum forward into this NHL season, scoring with 24 points (12 goals and 12 assists) through his first 20 games.

Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Nov. 22), @ NJ (Nov. 24), vs. NSH (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 59.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Adrian Kempe. With a new contract extension now in hand, Kempe has been able to completely put the business aspect out of mind and focus on his on-ice performance. With 19 points, he’s the Kings’ leading scorer through 20 games.

Next seven days: vs. BOS (Nov. 21), vs. OTT (Nov. 24)


Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 61.9%

Quarter-season MVP: Matthew Schaefer. Honorable mention here to Bo Horvat and his team-leading 13 goals and 24 points, but the nod goes to the 2025 No. 1 pick, who leads the Isles in ice time per game (22:29), was recently added to Canada’s 90-man list of Olympic candidates, and may be responsible for a sudden positive surge in vibes on the Island.

Next seven days: vs. STL (Nov. 22), vs. SEA (Nov. 23), vs. BOS (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 60%

Quarter-season MVP: Jake Guentzel. Like the team in general, Guentzel didn’t get off to the best start this season. But, he has picked it up in November (with seven goals and three assists through the month’s first eight games), as the Lightning look to climb back up the Atlantic Division standings.

Next seven days: @ WSH (Nov. 22), vs. PHI (Nov. 24), vs. CGY (Nov. 26)

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Jake Guentzel completes Lightning late show with OT winner

Jake Guentzel lights the lamp to win it for the Lightning in overtime.


Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 54.6%

Quarter-season MVP: David Pastrnak. For the Bruins to make noise this season, a lot was going to have to go right. One of those factors was Pastrnak scoring like the top-tier player he is. So far, so good, as Pasta scored 27 points through his first 22 games, with the Bruins near the top of the division.

Next seven days: @ LA (Nov. 21), @ SJ (Nov. 23), @ NYI (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 57.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Jakub Dobes. Although he has cooled off a bit after winning all six of his starts in October, the Czech 24-year-old appears to be the Habs’ better option in net this season, as he stakes his own claim in the Calder Trophy race.

Next seven days: vs. TOR (Nov. 22), @ UTA (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 62.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Jaden Schwartz. The Kraken have been one of the season’s pleasant surprises, remaining in the mix for a playoff spot through the first quarter. It has been a full-team effort — only six players have double-digit points after 19 games, and no one is in double digits in the goals column — so we’ll give the nod to the venerable, 33-year-old who shared the team scoring lead through 19 games and led the team with a plus-8 rating.

Next seven days: @ PIT (Nov. 22), @ NYI (Nov. 23), vs. DAL (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 54.8%

Quarter-season MVP: Nick Schmaltz. In the club’s first official season as the Mammoth, Schmaltz has led the team in scoring (22 points) and is tied for game-winning goals (two, with Clayton Keller) through the first 20 games.

Next seven days: vs. NYR (Nov. 22), vs. VGK (Nov. 24), vs. MTL (Nov. 26)

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Schmaltz nets second career hat trick in Mammoth’s win

Nick Schmaltz scores a trio of goals to lead Utah to a 6-3 win over San Jose.


Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 60%

Quarter-season MVP: Tim Stutzle. The Sens had captain Brady Tkachuk for three games before the forward’s upper-body injury sidelined him. Stutzle answered the call to fill the scoring gap, with a point-per-game pace through 19 games and double-digit goals.

Next seven days: @ SJ (Nov. 22), @ LA (Nov. 24), @ VGK (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 57.1%

Quarter-season MVP: Jesper Wallstedt. Sure, Kirill Kaprizov has been incredible, but that was expected. Let’s give some credit to rookie netminder Wallstedt, who has gone 5-0-2 in seven starts, with a 2.10 goals-against average (second in the league) and .926 save percentage (first).

Next seven days: @ PIT (Nov. 21), @ WPG (Nov. 23), @ CHI (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 57.1%

Quarter-season MVP: Logan Thompson. Thompson was the last line of defense for a team that nearly won the Presidents’ Trophy in 2024-25. He isn’t winning as often this season, but his other numbers are even better: a league-leading 1.85 goals-against average, and .920 save percentage (third).

Next seven days: vs. TB (Nov. 22), vs. CBJ (Nov. 24), vs. WPG (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 57.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Brad Marchand. The Panthers headed into this season defending two straight Stanley Cup championships, but without captain Aleksander Barkov (out until April) and Matthew Tkachuk (December). The team’s big trade deadline addition from last season (and playoff star) has stepped up, scoring a team-leading 23 points through 18 games; that puts him on pace for 99 points, one shy of a career high set back in 2018-19.

Next seven days: vs. EDM (Nov. 22), @ NSH (Nov. 24), vs. PHI (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 60.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Trevor Zegras. Who knew that a change of scenery was all it took to get Zegras’ career back on an upward trajectory? The No. 9 pick of the 2019 draft had hit a wall in Anaheim, but is soaring in Philly.

Next seven days: vs. NJ (Nov. 22), TB (Nov. 24), @ FLA (Nov. 26)

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0:18

Trevor Zegras goes five-hole for Flyers’ shootout winner

Trevor Zegras goes between the legs to score the lone goal in the shootout for the Flyers vs. the Blues.


Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 57.1%

Quarter-season MVP: Jet Greaves. Are we witnessing a changing of the guard in Columbus’ crease in real time? Greaves finished the 2024-25 season strong, and has been the goalie of choice for Columbus thus far this season, with 12 starts to Elvis Merzlikins‘ eight (and better stats as well).

Next seven days: @ DET (Nov. 22), @ WSH (Nov. 24), vs. TOR (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 50%

Quarter-season MVP: Igor Shesterkin/Jonathan Quick. The Rangers are still trying to figure out the right formula on offense, but the goal-suppression effort has been superb. Shesterkin is putting forth another superb effort, with a 7-7-2 record, 2.43 goals-against average and .911 save percentage; Quick has him beat in both of the ratios — 1.42 and .951 (!) — though he has fallen victim to the same lack of goal support, with a 3-2-0 mark. Things would be much worse for the Blueshirts without them.

Next seven days: @ UTA (Nov. 22), vs. STL (Nov. 24), @ CAR (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 50%

Quarter-season MVP: Connor McDavid. Ho hum, another season of elite scoring from the game’s greatest talent. Through 22 games, McDavid’s 32 points are six clear of second-best on the team (Leon Draisaitl‘s 26), as the Oil look to climb out of another early-season hole in the standings.

Next seven days: @ FLA (Nov. 22), vs. DAL (Nov. 25)


Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 54.8%

Quarter-season MVP: Macklin Celebrini. Celebrini went first overall in the 2024 draft — so we knew he’d be good. Did anyone expect him to be on pace to break the Sharks’ all-time scoring record in his second pro season?

Next seven days: vs. OTT (Nov. 22), vs. BOS (Nov. 23), @ COL (Nov. 26)

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0:32

Macklin Celebrini’s hat trick wins it for Sharks in OT

Macklin Celebrini scores on the power play for San Jose Sharks


Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 50%

Quarter-season MVP: William Nylander. It hasn’t been the greatest season in the storied history of the Maple Leafs — what with injuries to key skaters such as Auston Matthews and Chris Tanev, and the appearance of four goaltenders on the seasonal stat sheet due to injuries in the crease. But Nylander has been Mr. Reliable, with an impressive 27 points through 17 games, including some eye-popping highlights.

Next seven days: @ MTL (Nov. 22), @ CBJ (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 45.5%

Quarter-season MVP: Quinn Hughes. Rare is the team led in scoring by a defenseman, but such has been the case for the Canucks this season, with their captain leading the way en route to (likely) another Norris Trophy finalist spot.

Next seven days: vs. CGY (Nov. 23), @ ANA (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 45%

Quarter-season MVP: Tage Thompson. Some day, the Sabres will return to the playoffs, providing a payoff to one of the most passionate fan bases in the sport. For now, Thompson keeps scoring goals (10 of them so far), and might earn a spot to represent Team USA at the Milan-Cortina Olympics.

Next seven days: vs. CHI (Nov. 21), vs. CAR (Nov. 23), @ PIT (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 42.9%

Quarter-season MVP: Robert Thomas. Not a lot has gone right for the Blues this season after they snuck into the playoffs last season (and nearly knocked off the Jets). So, we’ll give the nod to Thomas, the only player on the roster who has played in more than one game and has a positive plus/minus rating (along with his 13 points through 16 games).

Next seven days: @ NYI (Nov. 22), @ NYR (Nov. 24), @ NJ (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 40%

Quarter-season MVP: Filip Forsberg. At this point, GM Barry Trotz needs to figure out who is going to be a part of the next competitive version of the Predators and who is not. We think that Forsberg — who has been around the past few versions — will still be there when Nashville makes the playoffs again.

Next seven days: vs. COL (Nov. 22), vs. FLA (Nov. 24), @ DET (Nov. 26)


Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 34.1%

Quarter-season MVP: Nazem Kadri. It has been a rough season for the Flames, and this roster could look quite a bit different by season’s end (with trade rumors already circling Kadri, Rasmus Andersson, Blake Coleman and others). So, as the leading scorer, the veteran center earns the quarter-season MVP honors here.

Next seven days: vs. DAL (Nov. 22), VAN (Nov. 23), @ TB (Nov. 26)

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