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It’s 2022 World Series time in Houston!

Thanks to the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies making short work of their opponents in the previous round, baseball fans had to go four October days without playoff baseball. But the wait is finally over!

With the first pitch of World Series Game 1 scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET on Friday night at Minute Maid Park, we go deep on the players and matchups that matter most for both teams — and asked our ESPN MLB experts to make their picks for who will win the series, how many games it will take and who will be the MVP of this Fall Classic.

Jump to: Astros | Phillies | Our predictions

Houston Astros

61.5% chance of winning | Caesars odds: -190

What’s on the line for the Astros: No team has swept the postseason in the wild-card era, with the 1999 Yankees and 2005 White Sox coming closest by going 11-1. If the Astros do become the first to do so — on top of 106 regular-season wins, six consecutive ALCS appearances and three other trips to the World Series since 2017 — they go down as an all-time great team and, yes, a modern-day dynasty. And for manager Dusty Baker, a spot in the Hall of Fame gets solidified with a long-awaited World Series title. — David Schoenfield


Three reasons Houston can win

  1. The bullpen: The Astros’ relievers led the majors in ERA during the regular season and have been flat-out dominant in the postseason. Baker has as many as five lights-out, high-leverage arms to deploy late in games. The Phillies can’t match this type of depth.

  2. The defensive advantage: At some point, one would think, the Phillies’ defense will cost them in a big moment. Philadelphia has made the routine plays as a unit recently, but the Astros, who had the second-most outs above average in the sport this year, are far superior in the field.

  3. Moxie: This is the Astros’ fourth World Series appearance in six years, they’ve gone undefeated throughout these playoffs, and they have a perfect mix of veterans performing at elite levels and young players coming into their own. This just feels like the Astros’ time — a time when they’ll truly distance themselves from scandal. — Alden Gonzalez


Where the Astros are vulnerable: Houston is as close to a perfect team as you’ll find in MLB right now, so the only thing you can point to is the lack of a platoon-dominant lefty to match against Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper in a high-leverage spot.

The Astros’ have righty relievers to excel in those situations, so painting this as a true weak spot might be a stretch and they could always roster veteran lefty Will Smith to use in a specialized role. — Bradford Doolittle


Jeff Passan’s inside intel

  • Jose Altuve has popped out to an infielder in an almost-inconceivable six of 35 at-bats this postseason, and the commonalities are velocity and verticality. Of the six, five have come on fastballs, all at 95.2 mph or harder, and five have been high, near the top of the strike zone — four heaters and one changeup. Half of them came with two strikes and Altuve protecting, but the other three were on 0-0, 1-0 and 1-1 counts. “I’d throw everything hard and high,” one scout said. “Make him show he can hit it.”

  • Cristian Javier has the best fastball of any starter in baseball,” one evaluator says, and when reminded that it averaged only 94 mph and he might not have the best on his team — hello, Justin Verlander — he insisted: “It’s better.” He may have a point. The expected batting average on Javier’s fastball during the regular season was a big-league-low .181. And that’s with him throwing the pitch 60% of the time, the fifth-highest rate among those with at least 1,000 fastballs this season. In the 16 at-bats that have ended on a Javier fastball this postseason, batters are hitting .077/.250/.154 against it.

  • The Astros need to spin to win. Against fastballs and cutters this postseason, the Phillies are hitting .273/.338/.517. And on sliders, curveballs, changeups and splitters, it’s .184/.240/.333. Well, it’s a good thing the Astros’ pitchers feature an array of off-speed stuff. As good as their fastballs are — their softer stuff made Yankees and Mariners hitters look silly to the tune of a .169/.226/.250 slash line.

Philadelphia Phillies

38.5% chance of winning | Caesars odds: +170

What’s on the line for the Phillies: In a loaded National League with three 100-win teams, this would be perhaps the most surprising World Series title run of the entire wild-card era. For Harper, hitting .419 with five home runs in the playoffs, it’s a chance to finish off one of the best individual postseasons of this era. And for executive Dave Dombrowski, a World Series title with a third different team would perhaps cement his status as just the sixth general manager to get elected to the Hall of Fame. — Schoenfield


Three reasons Phillies can win

  1. The lineup: The Phillies’ offense is at its peak right now. Their slugging percentage and OPS are way up over the regular season — all earned by beating playoff pitching. Simply put: Throw out the regular season, the Phillies can outslug the Astros at the plate.

  2. The ballpark: The Phillies are 5-0 at home this postseason and they don’t believe that’s a coincidence. This isn’t about hostile crowds — the Astros have dealt with those for years — this is about what the fans do for the home players. Rhys Hoskins called it a difference-maker.

  3. Mojo: The Phillies have been tested in a way the Astros have not this season. If the Astros take any part of the Phillies’ game lightly, they’ll find out what three other teams have learned this postseason: Philadelphia isn’t afraid of anyone. Philadelphia might be a No. 6 seed on paper, but right now it’s far from it on the field right now. — Jesse Rogers


Where the Phillies are vulnerable: No one can match Houston’s pitching depth, but Philly’s shortfall in this area could get it in a couple of specific ways. First, there isn’t a great option for the Phillies in terms of a Game 4 starter, whereas the Astros have nothing but great options for that contest.

Second, there isn’t really a particularly attractive option in the bullpen to use against Yordan Alvarez, should he come up in a late-and-close situation with runners on base. — Doolittle


Jeff Passan’s inside intel

  • If you want to neutralize Harper, evaluators say he has shown a vulnerable spot since returning from his broken thumb: middle and high fastballs on the inner-third of the plate. Don’t give him a heater on the outer half, as Robert Suarez learned, it’s Harper’s nitro zone. But with how teams are pitching him — among Phillies regulars, only Bryson Stott has seen fewer breaking balls — it’s clear they see fastballs as a potential weakness. The only issue: Pitchers haven’t hit their locations — and Harper has pounded fastballs and sinkers that don’t challenge him inside.

  • Here, evaluators say, is how you know Schwarber is locked in: In the NLCS, he didn’t swing and miss on a single pitch in the rulebook strike zone. Over the previous two series, he whiffed on five. Further, after putting three pitches out of the zone in play during the wild-card series and NLDS, he didn’t put one in play in the NLCS. Schwarber leads all players this postseason in walks because of the NLCS, when he watched 47 of the 94 pitches thrown at him and drew six walks. Over the previous two series? He saw the same 94 pitches but stared at just 32.

  • One pitch could determine the fate of the Phillies. “Aaron Nola‘s gloveside fastball,” according to one scout. Considering that it’s typically one of the best pitches in baseball, Nola needs to get it right for Game 1. In the regular season, batters hit .177/.227/.296 against fastballs away to right-handers and inside on left-handers. In three games this postseason, over the 16 hitters whose at-bats have ended on the pitch, it’s .267/.313/.733, including a pair of home runs after allowing just six on gloveside heaters that ended 217 regular-season at-bats.

Our Predictions

Houston Astros (12 votes)

Philadelphia Phillies (2 votes)

How many games?

  • Astros in 6 (7 votes)

  • Astros in 5 (3 votes)

  • Astros in 7 (2 votes)

  • Phillies in 6 (1 vote)

  • Phillies in 7 (1 vote)

MVP: Justin Verlander (3 votes); Yordan Alvarez (5 votes); Jeremy Pena (1 vote); Alex Bregman (1 vote); Kyle Tucker (1 vote); Jose Altuve (1 vote); Bryce Harper (1 vote), Zack Wheeler (1 vote)


Why did you pick the Phillies? Hey, I’m the guy who texted my editor at the start of the postseason and said don’t be surprised if the Astros run the table. OK, I meant to send that! So how can I switch to the Phillies now? I’m a believer in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. I’m a believer in Kyle Schwarber, who hit three home runs in the NLCS. I’m suddenly a believer in Seranthony Dominguez. And, I hate say this, I believe Astros manager Dusty Baker will mess up a key decision at some point (like leaving a starter in too long rather than going to his deep bullpen).

Mostly, however, I’m a believer in Harper. The World Series record for home runs is five, shared by George Springer (2017), Chase Utley (2009) and Reggie Jackson (1977). Harper is going to break that record. — Schoenfield


Why are the Astros such an overwhelming choice? Some New York Yankees fans might prefer to blame the manager, the general manager, Josh Donaldson or a videotape of the 2004 playoffs for the sweep at the hands of the Astros, but really, that’s ignoring the obvious: The Houston pitching is absurdly great.

After leading the American League in ERA by nearly half a run during the regular season, the Astros have a 1.88 ERA in this postseason, have held opposing hitters to a .178 average, and are averaging 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. It’s as if the whole staff is working at a peak Pedro Martinez. The Phillies’ lineup is loaded with sluggers and experience, but they can’t overcome that dominant group. — Buster Olney

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Alcantara: Uncertainty at trade deadline ‘hard’

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Alcantara: Uncertainty at trade deadline 'hard'

MIAMI — Sandy Alcantara admitted that Thursday was one of the hardest days of his career.

It has been thought all season that the Miami Marlins could move on from Alcantara amid their rebuilding project, which has included shipping out established players for prospects.

And as Thursday’s 6 p.m. ET trade deadline approached, the Marlins’ ace could not hide his nerves.

He sat in front of his television watching baseball programming with his family for most of the day, repeatedly checking his phone to see if he had been traded.

“It was hard, man,” Alcantara said Friday. “Every time I get on my phone, I see my name. I thought that I was leaving.”

Miami opted not to trade its 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner. In their only trade Thursday, the Marlins sent their longest-tenured position player, outfielder Jesús Sánchez, to the Houston Astros for right-hander Ryan Gusto and two prospects, infielder Chase Jaworsky and outfielder Esmil Valencia.

The rest of the team, which has won five straight series and went 15-10 in July, remains intact. Marlins president of baseball operations Peter Bendix said Friday that the club’s recent success, in part, factored into its approach at the deadline.

And manager Clayton McCullough said if there weren’t trade scenarios that “moved the needle for us in the near and the long term,” the Marlins were happy to continue competing with the group they have.

Amid what was expected to be a season of finding out which of its relatively inexperienced pieces Miami could build around in the future, the Marlins are third in the National League East at 52-55 and entered Friday seven games behind San Diego for the National League’s third wild-card spot.

Bendix declined to say how close Miami was to finalizing a trade for Alcantara but noted that the team “felt really comfortable” with its ultimate decision.

“All of the things that go into building a sustainably successful team were taken into consideration,” he said, “at a deadline where you have all of these decisions in front of you. It’s our job to be disciplined. Disciplined means listening, means having conversations, and then means trying to figure out the best decision to make for every decision point that we have.”

Alcantara has played most of his eight-year career in Miami, going 47-64 with a 3.64 ERA in 159 starts while becoming the first Miami player to win the Cy Young Award after a 2022 season in which he pitched a league-high 228 innings and six complete games.

Alcantara, 29, missed the 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and hasn’t yet returned to form in 2025. He is 6-9 with a 6.36 ERA, and despite being known as one of MLB’s most durable starters, has pitched only seven innings once.

He said it has taken a new level of mental toughness to play through a season not knowing if he would finish the year with the Marlins.

“It was a little hard because everywhere you go, every time you grab your phone, you see your name on the media,” Alcantara said. “But you [can’t] think too much about it. Just stay focused on everything you can do. I just came here, and if something happened, it just happened.”

Alcantara’s most recent two starts have been his best, an indicator to both the player and the Marlins that he might be close to returning to his All-Star caliber play.

He allowed one run and four hits in a season-high seven innings against the San Diego Padres on July 23, then pitched five shutout innings in a win at St. Louis on Tuesday.

“Sandy is continuing to trend,” McCullough said. “And we’re going to continue to be the beneficiaries of having Sandy for the rest of the season, continuing to get back to the pitcher that we all know Sandy is.”

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Rays place 1B Aranda on IL with fractured wrist

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Rays place 1B Aranda on IL with fractured wrist

TAMPA, Fla. — The Tampa Bay Rays placed All-Star first baseman Jonathan Aranda on the 10-day injured list Friday with a fractured left wrist.

Aranda was injured Thursday in a collision with New York Yankees designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton.

Aranda said the injury did not feel “catastrophic” and he’s hopeful he’ll return this season, although the Rays cautioned he won’t be able to use the wrist for approximately three weeks.

Aranda’s wrist has been immobilized in an air cast and he’s scheduled to undergo more imaging at the three-week mark. At that point, the Rays will reassess his return timetable.

“Let’s see how the bone heals,” manager Kevin Cash said before Friday night’s series opener against the Los Angeles Dodgers. “I think he has re-imaging in about three weeks, but we will continue to remain optimistic.”

Stanton hit a soft grounder in the fifth inning to third baseman Junior Caminero, who charged in on wet grass to field the ball. Aranda reached for Caminero’s wide toss that sailed into the runner, and his left wrist appeared to hit Stanton’s left shoulder.

Aranda, a first-time All-Star, is batting .316 with 12 home runs, 54 RBI in 103 games this season. He has a .394 on-base percentage, and an .872 OPS, making him one of the majors’ most dangerous hitters.

Cash shifted Yandy Díaz to first base in Aranda’s absence.

The Rays reinstated Ha-Seong Kim from the IL and recalled Tristan Gray from Triple-A Durham.

Trade deadline acquisitions Griffin Jax and Hunter Feduccia were active for Friday night’s game.

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Twins look to regroup after trade deadline ‘reset’

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Twins look to regroup after trade deadline 'reset'

CLEVELAND — A full-fledged meet and greet was the first order of business for the Minnesota Twins upon their arrival at the ballpark Friday.

Making nine trades and jettisoning nearly 40% of their team before the deadline the previous day meant there were plenty of new faces in the visiting clubhouse when the Twins began their three-game series against the Cleveland Guardians.

Minnesota traded players including standout shortstop Carlos Correa, closer Jhoan Duran and four high-leverage relievers several years away from free agency, among them St. Paul native Louis Varland.

“It’s a hard pill to swallow, but maybe a reset was needed,” catcher Ryan Jeffers said. “We were curious to see how far the front office would go, and they decided to go really far.

“The dominos just kept falling. It just kept coming. It felt like it never ended.”

Just two years ago, the Twins won the American League Central title and advanced to the division series. It turned out to be the high point of their post-pandemic era as they missed the playoffs in 2024 and are currently six games out of the final AL wild-card position.

“A lot of guys who were on our ’23 run aren’t here anymore because of the trades, so that hurt,” pitcher Bailey Ober said. “The business side of baseball sometimes shows its ugly face sometimes. It was surreal watching what happened.”

Ober was one of 10 players who spent Thursday together in a room in the team’s downtown Cleveland hotel, keeping track of the leaguewide activity. The upbeat mood changed when several of them received phone calls from Twins president Derek Falvey telling them they were on the move.

Manager Rocco Baldelli and Ober said no one took the news worse than hometown product Varland, an emerging reliever who was under team control through 2030.

“It was hardest on Lou, and I don’t think it’s close,” Baldelli said. “He loves the organization, and he loves being close to his family. Yeah, he took it hard.”

To field a full roster against the Guardians, the Twins recalled six players from Triple-A St. Paul and selected the contracts of two more Saints. Baldelli held a team meeting as soon as everyone arrived at Progressive Field, then spoke individually with many of his remaining veterans.

All-Star center fielder and unquestioned team leader Byron Buxton, who is on the 10-day injured list with left ribcage inflammation, also joined the Twins in Cleveland.

“Just having him here is huge,” outfielder Matt Wallner said. “That gives us some sense of normal.”

Starting pitcher Chris Paddack, one of six impending free agents, was the first to go Monday to the Detroit Tigers.

Duran, who had a 2.47 ERA with 292 strikeouts over 233⅔ innings in four seasons, was dealt Wednesday to the Philadelphia Phillies in the first sign that the Twins were serious about trading veterans. Duran fetched Triple-A starting pitcher Mick Abel and High-A catcher Eduardo Tait.

“It’s hard, but it’s about making sure that you’re constantly trying to find a way to not just sit on your heels, hope that it all goes better and keep your fingers crossed,” Falvey said. “It’s a way to actually go invest in the future of the team, hopefully the short-term and the long-term.”

Outfielder Harrison Bader followed Duran to the Phillies, and reliever Brock Stewart was sent to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Reliever Danny Coulombe went to the Texas Rangers. First baseman Ty France and Varland were packaged to Toronto for Triple-A outfielder Alan Roden and Triple-A starting pitcher Kendry Rojas.

“I was in uniform, ready to play for the Buffalo Bisons when it happened,” Roden said, chuckling. “It was a pretty normal day until it wasn’t.”

Popular multiposition player Willi Castro went to the Chicago Cubs and reliever Griffin Jax was sent to the Tampa Bay Rays. Then came the headliner. Correa went back to his original team, the Houston Astros, in what amounted to a salary dump while also bringing back High-A starting pitcher Matt Mikulski.

“It was sad that Carlos left,” catcher Christian Vázquez said. “It was a hard day yesterday. We’re like a family in the clubhouse, so it was hard. It was a fun ride with all of them.”

Less than 22 months ago, the Twins were celebrating at a packed Target Field after Duran closed out a two-game sweep of the Blue Jays in the wild-card round for their first playoff series win in 21 years and the end of their record 18-game postseason losing streak.

Since then, they’ve been in ownership-ordered payroll purgatory in light of the hefty hit they took in regional television revenue after the Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy that affected several other clubs from midsize and small markets.

Even the most aggressive scenarios the Twins envisioned prior to the deadline didn’t include Correa, who signed the richest contract in club history as a free agent after the 2022 season. But the Astros wanted him back and were willing to eat most of the roughly $103 million remaining on his deal through 2028, and Correa was willing to waive his no-trade clause to return to the team that drafted him. The Twins agreed to cover $33 million, due in four installments each Dec. 15.

Falvey was adamant that the Twins aren’t trying to bottom out with this rebuild as other clubs have done with varying degrees of success. The Twins kept both of their All-Stars: Buxton and starting pitcher Joe Ryan, who had plenty of suitors. They’re still confident in third baseman Royce Lewis, who has followed a series of injuries with inconsistency at the plate this season. Starting pitcher Pablo López, whose shoulder injury preceded a skid in June the Twins never corrected, will be back sooner rather than later.

“We’re here to win, let me be clear,” Baldelli said. “The locker room looks different, the team looks different, the lineup is different, but let’s go to work.”

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