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It’s 2022 World Series time in Houston!

Thanks to the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies making short work of their opponents in the previous round, baseball fans had to go four October days without playoff baseball. But the wait is finally over!

With the first pitch of World Series Game 1 scheduled for 8:03 p.m. ET on Friday night at Minute Maid Park, we go deep on the players and matchups that matter most for both teams — and asked our ESPN MLB experts to make their picks for who will win the series, how many games it will take and who will be the MVP of this Fall Classic.

Jump to: Astros | Phillies | Our predictions

Houston Astros

61.5% chance of winning | Caesars odds: -190

What’s on the line for the Astros: No team has swept the postseason in the wild-card era, with the 1999 Yankees and 2005 White Sox coming closest by going 11-1. If the Astros do become the first to do so — on top of 106 regular-season wins, six consecutive ALCS appearances and three other trips to the World Series since 2017 — they go down as an all-time great team and, yes, a modern-day dynasty. And for manager Dusty Baker, a spot in the Hall of Fame gets solidified with a long-awaited World Series title. — David Schoenfield


Three reasons Houston can win

  1. The bullpen: The Astros’ relievers led the majors in ERA during the regular season and have been flat-out dominant in the postseason. Baker has as many as five lights-out, high-leverage arms to deploy late in games. The Phillies can’t match this type of depth.

  2. The defensive advantage: At some point, one would think, the Phillies’ defense will cost them in a big moment. Philadelphia has made the routine plays as a unit recently, but the Astros, who had the second-most outs above average in the sport this year, are far superior in the field.

  3. Moxie: This is the Astros’ fourth World Series appearance in six years, they’ve gone undefeated throughout these playoffs, and they have a perfect mix of veterans performing at elite levels and young players coming into their own. This just feels like the Astros’ time — a time when they’ll truly distance themselves from scandal. — Alden Gonzalez


Where the Astros are vulnerable: Houston is as close to a perfect team as you’ll find in MLB right now, so the only thing you can point to is the lack of a platoon-dominant lefty to match against Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper in a high-leverage spot.

The Astros’ have righty relievers to excel in those situations, so painting this as a true weak spot might be a stretch and they could always roster veteran lefty Will Smith to use in a specialized role. — Bradford Doolittle


Jeff Passan’s inside intel

  • Jose Altuve has popped out to an infielder in an almost-inconceivable six of 35 at-bats this postseason, and the commonalities are velocity and verticality. Of the six, five have come on fastballs, all at 95.2 mph or harder, and five have been high, near the top of the strike zone — four heaters and one changeup. Half of them came with two strikes and Altuve protecting, but the other three were on 0-0, 1-0 and 1-1 counts. “I’d throw everything hard and high,” one scout said. “Make him show he can hit it.”

  • Cristian Javier has the best fastball of any starter in baseball,” one evaluator says, and when reminded that it averaged only 94 mph and he might not have the best on his team — hello, Justin Verlander — he insisted: “It’s better.” He may have a point. The expected batting average on Javier’s fastball during the regular season was a big-league-low .181. And that’s with him throwing the pitch 60% of the time, the fifth-highest rate among those with at least 1,000 fastballs this season. In the 16 at-bats that have ended on a Javier fastball this postseason, batters are hitting .077/.250/.154 against it.

  • The Astros need to spin to win. Against fastballs and cutters this postseason, the Phillies are hitting .273/.338/.517. And on sliders, curveballs, changeups and splitters, it’s .184/.240/.333. Well, it’s a good thing the Astros’ pitchers feature an array of off-speed stuff. As good as their fastballs are — their softer stuff made Yankees and Mariners hitters look silly to the tune of a .169/.226/.250 slash line.

Philadelphia Phillies

38.5% chance of winning | Caesars odds: +170

What’s on the line for the Phillies: In a loaded National League with three 100-win teams, this would be perhaps the most surprising World Series title run of the entire wild-card era. For Harper, hitting .419 with five home runs in the playoffs, it’s a chance to finish off one of the best individual postseasons of this era. And for executive Dave Dombrowski, a World Series title with a third different team would perhaps cement his status as just the sixth general manager to get elected to the Hall of Fame. — Schoenfield


Three reasons Phillies can win

  1. The lineup: The Phillies’ offense is at its peak right now. Their slugging percentage and OPS are way up over the regular season — all earned by beating playoff pitching. Simply put: Throw out the regular season, the Phillies can outslug the Astros at the plate.

  2. The ballpark: The Phillies are 5-0 at home this postseason and they don’t believe that’s a coincidence. This isn’t about hostile crowds — the Astros have dealt with those for years — this is about what the fans do for the home players. Rhys Hoskins called it a difference-maker.

  3. Mojo: The Phillies have been tested in a way the Astros have not this season. If the Astros take any part of the Phillies’ game lightly, they’ll find out what three other teams have learned this postseason: Philadelphia isn’t afraid of anyone. Philadelphia might be a No. 6 seed on paper, but right now it’s far from it on the field right now. — Jesse Rogers


Where the Phillies are vulnerable: No one can match Houston’s pitching depth, but Philly’s shortfall in this area could get it in a couple of specific ways. First, there isn’t a great option for the Phillies in terms of a Game 4 starter, whereas the Astros have nothing but great options for that contest.

Second, there isn’t really a particularly attractive option in the bullpen to use against Yordan Alvarez, should he come up in a late-and-close situation with runners on base. — Doolittle


Jeff Passan’s inside intel

  • If you want to neutralize Harper, evaluators say he has shown a vulnerable spot since returning from his broken thumb: middle and high fastballs on the inner-third of the plate. Don’t give him a heater on the outer half, as Robert Suarez learned, it’s Harper’s nitro zone. But with how teams are pitching him — among Phillies regulars, only Bryson Stott has seen fewer breaking balls — it’s clear they see fastballs as a potential weakness. The only issue: Pitchers haven’t hit their locations — and Harper has pounded fastballs and sinkers that don’t challenge him inside.

  • Here, evaluators say, is how you know Schwarber is locked in: In the NLCS, he didn’t swing and miss on a single pitch in the rulebook strike zone. Over the previous two series, he whiffed on five. Further, after putting three pitches out of the zone in play during the wild-card series and NLDS, he didn’t put one in play in the NLCS. Schwarber leads all players this postseason in walks because of the NLCS, when he watched 47 of the 94 pitches thrown at him and drew six walks. Over the previous two series? He saw the same 94 pitches but stared at just 32.

  • One pitch could determine the fate of the Phillies. “Aaron Nola‘s gloveside fastball,” according to one scout. Considering that it’s typically one of the best pitches in baseball, Nola needs to get it right for Game 1. In the regular season, batters hit .177/.227/.296 against fastballs away to right-handers and inside on left-handers. In three games this postseason, over the 16 hitters whose at-bats have ended on the pitch, it’s .267/.313/.733, including a pair of home runs after allowing just six on gloveside heaters that ended 217 regular-season at-bats.

Our Predictions

Houston Astros (12 votes)

Philadelphia Phillies (2 votes)

How many games?

  • Astros in 6 (7 votes)

  • Astros in 5 (3 votes)

  • Astros in 7 (2 votes)

  • Phillies in 6 (1 vote)

  • Phillies in 7 (1 vote)

MVP: Justin Verlander (3 votes); Yordan Alvarez (5 votes); Jeremy Pena (1 vote); Alex Bregman (1 vote); Kyle Tucker (1 vote); Jose Altuve (1 vote); Bryce Harper (1 vote), Zack Wheeler (1 vote)


Why did you pick the Phillies? Hey, I’m the guy who texted my editor at the start of the postseason and said don’t be surprised if the Astros run the table. OK, I meant to send that! So how can I switch to the Phillies now? I’m a believer in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola. I’m a believer in Kyle Schwarber, who hit three home runs in the NLCS. I’m suddenly a believer in Seranthony Dominguez. And, I hate say this, I believe Astros manager Dusty Baker will mess up a key decision at some point (like leaving a starter in too long rather than going to his deep bullpen).

Mostly, however, I’m a believer in Harper. The World Series record for home runs is five, shared by George Springer (2017), Chase Utley (2009) and Reggie Jackson (1977). Harper is going to break that record. — Schoenfield


Why are the Astros such an overwhelming choice? Some New York Yankees fans might prefer to blame the manager, the general manager, Josh Donaldson or a videotape of the 2004 playoffs for the sweep at the hands of the Astros, but really, that’s ignoring the obvious: The Houston pitching is absurdly great.

After leading the American League in ERA by nearly half a run during the regular season, the Astros have a 1.88 ERA in this postseason, have held opposing hitters to a .178 average, and are averaging 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. It’s as if the whole staff is working at a peak Pedro Martinez. The Phillies’ lineup is loaded with sluggers and experience, but they can’t overcome that dominant group. — Buster Olney

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Unsettled playoff races? Another milestone for Ohtani? What to watch in MLB’s final weekend

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Unsettled playoff races? Another milestone for Ohtani? What to watch in MLB's final weekend

Travis d’Arnaud hit the biggest home of the season for the Atlanta Braves. Fans of the New York Mets are in a state of panic. Paul Skenes delivered two more scoreless innings to cap off his stunning rookie season with a 1.96 ERA. Saturday is in the books. We have one full day of the regular season left — plus the Braves-Mets doubleheader Monday.

Here’s what to watch, starting with the National League wild-card race, where the Braves now have a one-game lead over the Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks as the three teams battle for two spots.

New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers shut out the Mets 6-0 on Saturday, handing the Mets their first three-game losing streak since Aug. 11. When the Braves beat the Royals 2-1 later, it dropped the Mets behind the Braves in the standings for the first time since Sept. 4.

The Mets will start David Peterson on Sunday. The lefty has allowed five runs in two of his past three starts, although he has generally been effective since July, with a 2.90 ERA over his past 15 starts. The Brewers are locked into the third seed and will certainly rest all their top relievers as they get ready for Tuesday’s wild-card series. Colin Rea gets the start for Milwaukee, but expect a heavy bullpen game with the secondary relievers getting the action.

The Mets used their top three starters in this series: Sean Manaea on Friday, Jose Quintana on Saturday and now Peterson. That means Luis Severino and Tylor Megill are the likely starters for Monday’s doubleheader. The Braves do have a righty-heavy lineup and have an OPS nearly 70 points higher against lefties, so at least the Mets will have their two right-handed starters going Monday.


Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves

The Braves beat the Royals on d’Arnaud’s walk-off home run. Reynaldo Lopez returned from the injured list to make his first start for Atlanta since Sept. 10 and allowed just two hits and one run in six innings. The 2024 All-Star finishes the season with a 2.00 ERA in 25 starts (although he didn’t pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title).

The Braves’ gamble to hold off on starting probable Cy Young winner Chris Sale until absolutely needed has paid off. Sale could have started Friday, but the Braves have said they were going to hold him back until facing potential elimination. With a one-game lead in the wild-card race, the earliest that now could come would be the second game of the doubleheader against the Mets. The best-case scenario, of course, is that they clinch before using Sale and having him ready for Game 1 of the wild-card series.

As of Saturday night, manager Brian Snitker said the team hadn’t decided on a Sunday starter. Charlie Morton would be the starter with the most rest, but the Braves might want to save him for the Mets. That could leave Grant Holmes to face a slumping Kansas City offense.

Remember as well: The Braves lead the season series 6-5 over the Mets, meaning the tiebreaker between the two teams is still up for grabs.


San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks

The Padres blanked the Diamondbacks 5-0 on Saturday — the second shutout in four games for the high-powered Arizona attack and their fifth loss in six games as a wild-card spot that looked pretty safe a week ago is suddenly in jeopardy. Indeed, the key to remember here is the Diamondbacks lose the tiebreaker to both the Mets and Braves.

Sunday now feels like a must-win for Arizona. If they lose again, one win by the Mets on Sunday or in Monday’s doubleheader would eliminate the Diamondbacks.

With Zac Gallen in line to start the wild-card opener after pitching Wednesday, Brandon Pfaadt will start Sunday against Martin Perez. Pfaadt has been all over the place lately, getting knocked out in the third inning of his last start and in the second inning two starts ago, but sandwiched around a 12-strikeout game.


American League wild card

Lots of this was settled Friday night: First, before a boisterous crowd of 44,435 fans at Comerica Park, the Tigers beat the White Sox 4-1 to win their sixth straight game and clinch their first playoff spot since 2014. They had been tied with the Angels for the longest active playoff drought in the majors.

The Royals backed into their first postseason since 2015 when the Twins lost.

The Orioles clinched the fourth seed in beating Minnesota. The Tigers are one game up on the Royals for the fifth seed, but the Royals hold the tiebreaker in case they finish with the same record. The fifth seed will play at Baltimore while the sixth seed will play at Houston in the wild-card series (the higher seed gets all home games). The good news for the both the Tigers and Royals is they can save Tarik Skubal and Cole Ragans for the first games of the wild-card series, rather than having to start them Sunday.


Battles for the best record and top seed

  • The Dodgers clinched both the top seed in the NL and the top seed overall (the fourth time in eight season the Dodgers finished with MLB’s best record). That leaves the Phillies as the No. 2 seed in the NL.

  • Despite a 9-4 loss to the Pirates as Luis Gil served up four home runs, the Yankees clinched the top seed in the AL when the Guardians lost, making Cleveland the No. 2 seed.

  • The No. 5 and No. 6 seeds in both leagues remain unsettled. The Tigers have a one-game lead over the Royals in the AL, but the Royals hold the tiebreaker if they finish with the same record.


The Shohei Ohtani watch … continues

The man is not slowing down. You thought we were done with Ohtani milestones after he cleared 50/50? No way. He went 2-for-5 with his 58th stolen base in Saturday’s blowout win over Colorado — his 35th consecutive stolen base without getting caught. Going back to his 6-for-6 game, he’s an incredible 26-for-39, a .667 average.

What can he do if he plays Sunday? He’s at 99 extra-base hits; the last players to reach 100 did it in 2001. And the Triple Crown is in play. Ohtani raised his average to .310. League leader Luis Arraez didn’t play Saturday, so remains at .314. It will be interesting to see if Arraez sits again on his .314 average and forces Ohtani to have a big day to catch him.

If Ohtani goes 4-for-5, he would be hitting .31397. Arraez is currently at .31388.


Other statistical races at play

  • Can Aaron Judge get to 60 home runs? Judge was back in the lineup Saturday after a day off, but went 0-for-5 with five strikeouts. That dropped his slugging percentage to .701 as he tries to become the first player to slug .700 since Barry Bonds in 2004. The last player to do so outside of the 1994 to 2004 window was Ted Williams in 1957.

  • Ohtani already passed 400 total bases, the first time that was done since 2001. Judge is at 392 so would likely need a two-homer finale to get there.

  • Bobby Witt Jr. now looks like a lock for the AL batting title. He has held the lead all summer, and when he peaked with a .352 average on Aug. 16, he held a comfortable 19-point lead over Judge (and 33 points over Vladimir Guerrero Jr.). After sitting Saturday, Witt remained at .332, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 0-for-4 to fall to .324 while Judge dropped to .322 (which also eliminates his chance of a Triple Crown).

  • Jose Ramirez hit his 39th home run Saturday, so needs one more to join the exclusive 40/40 club, which has just six members: Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr. (2023), Alfonso Soriano (2006), Alex Rodriguez (1998), Barry Bonds (1996) and Jose Canseco (1998).

  • Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals has 49 saves; 50 saves has been achieved 17 times, the last by Edwin Diaz in 2018.


Saying goodbye

Joey Votto, who didn’t play in the majors this season after signing a minor league contract with the Blue Jays, announced his retirement a few weeks ago, and his next stop will eventually be receiving a Hall of Fame plaque in Cooperstown. Two longtime outfielders have also officially announced their retirements at the end of the season:

  • Los Angeles Dodgers CF Kevin Kiermaier: It’s not clear whether Kiermaier will make the Dodgers’ playoff roster as a backup outfielder (he has hit .164 with the Dodgers and has started just two games in September), so this could be it for one of the best defensive center fielders of all time. Yes, all time. Kiermaier has won four Gold Gloves, displaying incredible lateral range during his heyday with the Tampa Bay Rays. His 38 defensive runs saved in 2015 is the best single-season total for a center fielder since DRS began in 2003, and his career total of 173 is the most for any outfielder since 2003 (and third most at any position, behind only Andrelton Simmons and Adrian Beltre). Kiermaier’s defensive excellence is reflected in his career WAR of 36.1. Not bad for a 31st-round pick from Parkland Community College.

  • Colorado Rockies DH/OF Charlie Blackmon: Blackmon has spent his entire 14-year career with the Rockies. It took him a while to get situated in the big leagues — his first full season didn’t come until he was 27 years old — but he went on to become a four-time All-Star and finished fifth in the 2017 NL MVP voting after leading the league in batting average (.331), hits (213) and runs (137). His power declined after that 2016 to 2019 peak, but he’s one of the most popular players in Rockies history and will finish with more than 1,800 hits in the majors.

There might be a few other veterans playing their final games who just haven’t yet announced their retirements. Matt Carpenter comes to mind here. Kyle Hendricks wants to pitch in 2025, but he heads into free agency, and his start Saturday at Wrigley Field will likely be his final one after 11 seasons with the Chicago Cubs. Let’s hope Andrew McCutchen returns to the Pittsburgh Pirates for another season after he put up solid numbers in 2024. If these guys don’t return — thanks for the memorable careers.

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Bama blows 28-0 lead, escapes UGA on late TD

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Bama blows 28-0 lead, escapes UGA on late TD

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Alabama blew a 28-point lead against No. 2 Georgia at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday night.

And then the No. 4 Crimson Tide broke the Bulldogs’ hearts again in a 41-34 victory in which the SEC heavyweights scored touchdowns on consecutive plays from scrimmage late in the fourth quarter.

Alabama didn’t seal the victory until cornerback Zabien Brown intercepted quarterback Carson Beck‘s pass to receiver Colbie Young in the end zone with 43 seconds left to end Georgia’s furious rally.

After the Bulldogs rallied from a 23-point deficit at halftime, they took their first lead on Beck’s 67-yard touchdown to Dillon Bell to make it 34-33 with 2:31 to go.

But Alabama scored on its very next play from scrimmage. On first-and-10 from the Crimson Tide 25, quarterback Jalen Milroe threw a deep ball down the right sideline for freshman Ryan Williams. The receiver spun out of cornerback Julian Humphrey‘s tackle at the 8-yard line and beat safety KJ Bolden for a 75-yard touchdown with 2:18 remaining. Milroe threw a 2-point conversion to receiver Germie Bernard to give Alabama a 41-34 lead.

Milroe completed 27 of 33 passes for 374 yards with two touchdowns and ran for 117 yards with two scores. He is the first player in FBS history with 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns against an AP top-five opponent, according to ESPN Research.

Williams, a 17-year-old freshman, had six catches for 177 yards with one score.

Beck recovered from a slow start to complete 27 of 50 passes for 439 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. He also lost a fumble and was sacked three times.

The loss ended Georgia’s 42-game winning streak in the regular season, which was the longest run by an FBS team since Oklahoma won 45 in a row from 1953 to 1957. It also snapped Georgia’s 16-game winning streak on the road.

It was new Tide coach Kalen DeBoer’s first meeting with Georgia, but the results were the same for Alabama. It has won nine of its past 10 games against Georgia, including a 27-24 victory in last year’s SEC championship game, which led to the Bulldogs failing to make the College Football Playoff.

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Texas overcomes sloppy start to nab 1st SEC win

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Texas overcomes sloppy start to nab 1st SEC win

AUSTIN, Texas — No. 1 Texas got its first SEC win behind the arm of Arch Manning, who helped the Longhorns overcome a slow start and some self-inflicted setbacks to beat Mississippi State 35-13 on Saturday.

Manning was 26-of-31 for 324 yards and two touchdowns and added 33 rushing yards and another score, despite Johntay Cook II dropping a wide-open touchdown pass that would’ve added another 62 passing yards in the second quarter. A week after throwing two interceptions in his first start against UL Monroe, Manning said he felt more relaxed.

“I think last week I didn’t have as much fun as I wanted to,” Manning said. “I think I had a little bit more fun today even though it was a little rocky.”

It was rocky because running back Jaydon Blue lost two fumbles — one in the red zone — Cook dropped a touchdown and there were eight penalties on the Texas offense. Coach Steve Sarkisian criticized himself for kicking a field goal, then going for it on fourth down after a defensive penalty gave the Longhorns another chance. Texas failed to convert, taking three points off the board.

The Longhorns went into halftime with a 14-6 lead, with Mississippi State running a ground-heavy approach behind true freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. The Bulldogs ran 73 plays on the night to Texas’ 62, but the Longhorns outgained them 522 yards to 294. There were also 17 penalties in the game, many with lengthy reviews.

“It was hard for the game to get a rhythm to it,” Sarkisian said.

But he was pleased that the Longhorns navigated this stretch of the season and Quinn Ewers‘ injury to start 5-0. It’s the second straight season Texas has started 5-0, marking just the second time in the past 50 years the Longhorns have done it in back-to-back years. Texas has an off week coming up, followed by the Red River Rivalry in Dallas against Oklahoma, before Georgia comes to Austin the following week.

Sarkisian said the Longhorns showed poise, and he was pleased they were able to survive their first SEC challenge while letting Ewers recover from a strained oblique injury without having to rush him back.

“We need Quinn back because he’s our quarterback and he’s our leader,” Sarkisian said. “I think that impacts the entire team and belief, but what I think we learned and what Arch learned here over the last 2½ games is this team can count on him too.”

Manning said he’s ready for Ewers’ return whenever that might be.

“I think Quinn’s proved himself,” Manning said. “I mean, he led us to the Sugar Bowl last year and he’s played really well this year, so this is his team. I think he’s going to come back and play really well, but I’ll be ready for when my number’s called if they need me. So we’re just going to try and keep this thing rolling.”

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