From the American League, the Houston Astros continue to make their case as one of baseball’s best modern dynasties. This is their fourth World Series appearance in six years, and they’ve run roughshod over the competition in the playoffs, sweeping the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees in decisive fashion. Jeremy Pena and Chas McCormick were both on fire in the AL Championship Series, combining for four home runs and OPSing over 1.000.
In the National League, the Philadelphia Phillies continue their Cinderella run. After winning only 87 games in the regular season, the Phillies have gone on a roll in the postseason, rocking a 9-2 record, including a 3-1 domination of the defending champion Atlanta Braves in the NL Division Series. The team has maintained its slugging ways throughout the playoffs, with Kyle Schwarber mashing a 488-foot home run and Bryce Harper hitting a legacy-defining series winner in the NLCS.
Will Philadelphia knock off the juggernaut, or will Houston add a second championship to its repertoire? It all started Friday night in Houston. We’ll be here with all of the best highlights, analysis and takeaways.
A whole new ballgame
The Astros added lefty Will Smith — the closer for the champion Atlanta Braves a year ago — to the roster for this round. Dusty Baker had a perfect situation to use him with lefties Brandon Marsh and Kyle Schwarber leading off the fifth against a tiring Justin Verlander. Marsh hit .188 against lefties and Schwarber .193 this season.
But there was Verlander back out there and Marsh doubled, Schwarber walked and J.T. Realmuto tied the game with a two-run double. These Phillies don’t quit, that’s for sure. In our predictions file heading into the series, I warned that Baker was likely to leave a starter in too long at some point — and we just saw it happen. A lot of baseball to go here, but a 5-0 blowout has surprisingly turned into a good game. — David Schoenfield
Just like that, the Phillies get right back in this game, scoring three runs off Justin Verlander with two outs in the fourth inning. Verlander appeared to catch a break when Rhys Hoskins held up at third base on Bryce Harper’s two-out line-drive single to right field, but Nick Castellanos rescued Hoskins with a base hit to left and Alec Bohm doubled down the left-field line to score two.
Now comes the big question: How long will Dusty Baker stick with Verlander? Houston has a deep, dominant bullpen that has allowed three runs in 33 innings in the postseason. After Verlander issued a 10-pitch walk to light-hitting Bryson Stott after the three runs had scored, on top of throwing 31 pitches in the inning, Baker should consider going to the bullpen for the fifth and the 9-1-2 hitters coming up. The Astros have the bullpen arms to cover five innings. — Schoenfield
The Kyle Tucker Game
This game is out of hand early as Kyle Tucker unloads on a 3-2 sinker from Aaron Nola for a three-run home run and 5-0 lead for the Astros in the bottom of the third. John Smoltz made a great point on the broadcast that Nola didn’t seem to want to go back to his changeup since Tucker had homered off it in the second inning. So even though Nola got ahead 0-2, he stuck with fastballs and curveballs. Tucker locked in on the fastball and crushed it at 105.3 mph and 395 feet to right-center, becoming the first Astros player with a multi-homer game in the World Series. We have plenty of time left to see if Tucker can match Babe Ruth (twice), Reggie Jackson, Albert Pujols and Pablo Sandoval with a three-homer World Series game. — Schoenfield
Justin Verlander has a reputation as a big-game pitcher in the postseason — mostly based on two dominant performances against the Yankees in the 2017 ALCS. His World Series history, however, is another matter: He entered this game 0-6 with a 5.68 ERA in seven career starts. That’s the third-worst ERA among pitchers who have started at least five World Series games. Early on, however, he’s cruising: Nine up and nine down through three innings with four strikeouts, including a three-pitch strikeout of Bryce Harper when he got Harper to swing and miss at three straight fastballs at the top of the zone. — Schoenfield
Tucker opens the scoring
Kyle Tucker, the under-appreciated star in the Houston lineup, puts the first run of the World Series on the board with a home run to right field off a poorly located 1-1 changeup from Aaron Nola. That’s a bad sign for Nola. He was great in his first two postseason starts, allowing one unearned run over 12.2 innings, but served up two home runs in a Game 2 NLCS loss to the Padres, blowing an early 4-0 lead in the process. The Astros are also running his pitch count up through the first two innings, another bad sign for the Phillies, who don’t have the bullpen depth the Astros have in case Nola can’t go six or seven innings. One more piece of bad news for the Phillies: Martin Maldonado singles in a run to make it 2-0: The Astros have won 22 consecutive games when they’ve scored first, going back to the regular season. — Schoenfield
Bryce Harper walked into Game 1 wearing the jersey of Philadelphia Phillies legend and Hall of Fame Mike Schmidt. It’s not the first time Harper has paid tribute to Schmidt — earlier this season, he did a photoshoot recreating Schmidt’s iconic 1987 Phillies Media guide cover.
That might seem a bit strange to the conference that boasts the most playoff-caliber teams and the most nonconference wins against other Power 4 leagues, and also has Paul Finebaum there to remind everyone just how angry they should be at this affront to good judgment.
With that, we’ll handle much of Finebaum’s homework for him. Here’s this week’s Anger Index.
1. The SEC
Eleven weeks into the 2024 season, and one thing seems abundantly clear: The SEC is the best conference in college football. Take a look at Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, for example, where nine of the top 17 teams are from the SEC. Or use ESPN’s FPI metric, where the SEC has spots 1, 2, 4, 5 and 9. Consider that the team currently ninth in the SEC standings, South Carolina, has three wins over SP+ top-40 teams and losses to the committee’s No. 10 and 22 teams by a combined total of five points.
Yes, the SEC’s dominance and depth seem obvious.
So, of course, four of the top five teams in the committee’s rankings this week are from the SEC.
Wait, no, sorry about that. We’re getting late word here that, in fact, it’s the Big Ten with teams No. 1, 2, 4 and 5 in this week’s rankings.
It’s not that those four Big Ten teams aren’t any good. Oregon (No. 1) has chewed up and spit out nearly all comers this season. Ohio State (No. 2) is the best squad the gross domestic product of Estonia can buy. Penn State (No. 4), well, the Nittany Lions still haven’t beaten Ohio State, but we assume the rest of the résumé is OK. Indiana (No. 5) is blowing the doors off people.
But that’s it. The rest of the Big Ten is a mess. You need a magnifying glass to find Michigan‘s QB production. Iowa finally learned how to score and somehow has gotten worse. Minnesota looked like the next-best team in the conference, and the Gophers have losses to North Carolina and Rutgers.
A lack of depth does not inherently mean the teams at the top are not elite. Indeed, the other teams in any conference remain independent variables when addressing the ceiling for any one team. If the Kansas City Chiefs joined the Sun Belt, Patrick Mahomes would still be a magician and Andy Reid would still be saying “Bundle-a-rooskie-doo” in your nightmares.
But the cold, hard facts are these: Indiana’s best win came last week against Michigan (No. 40 in SP+) by 3. Penn State’s best win (by SP+) came by 3 against a below-.500 USC team that just benched its QB. Ohio State is absolutely elite on paper, but on the field, the Buckeyes’ success is entirely buoyed by a 20-13 win at Penn State, a team we also know very little about.
The SEC gets flack for boasting of its greatness routinely, and to be sure, that narrative has often bolstered less-than-elite teams. But this year, every reasonable metric suggests the SEC’s production actually matches its ego, and when Ole Miss (No. 11), Georgia (No. 12), Alabama (No. 10) and Texas A&M (No. 15) — all with two losses — are dogged as a result of playing in a league where every other team warrants a spot in the top 25, it undermines the entire point of having a committee that can use its judgment rather than simply look at the standings.
Let’s compare two teams with blind résumés.
Team A: 8-1 record, No. 14 in ESPN’s strength of record. Best win came vs. SP+ No. 20, loss came to a top-10 team by 3. Has four wins vs. Power 4 teams with a winning record, by an average of 14 points.
Team B: 8-1 record, No. 11 in ESPN’s strength of record. Best win came vs. SP+ No. 28, loss came to a top-15 team by 15. Has one win vs. a Power 4 team with a winning record, by 3.
So, which team has the better résumé?
This shouldn’t take too long to figure out. Team A looks better by almost every metric, right?
Well, Team A is SMU, who checks in at No. 14 in this week’s ranking.
Team B, though? That’d be the Mustangs’ old friends from the Southwest Conference, the Texas Longhorns. Texas checks in at No. 3.
Perhaps you’ve watched enough of both Texas and SMU to think the eye test favors the Longhorns. That’s fair. But should the eye test account for 11 spots in the rankings? At some point, the results have to matter more.
Or, perhaps it’s the brand that matters to the committee. If that same résumé belonged to a school that hadn’t just bought its way into the Power 4 this year, it’s hard to imagine they wouldn’t be in the top 10 with ease.
Let’s dig into three different teams still hoping for a playoff bid, even if the odds are against them at this point.
Team A: 7-2, 1 win over SP+ top 40. No. 28 in ESPN’s strength of record. Losses by a combined 18 points.
Team B: 7-2, 1 win over SP+ top 40. No. 25 in ESPN’s strength of record. Losses by a combined 13 points.
Team C: 7-2, no wins over SP+ top 40. No. 24 in ESPN’s strength of record. Losses by a combined 21 points.
You could split hairs here, but the bottom line is none has a particularly compelling résumé, and they’re all pretty similar.
So, who are they?
Team B is Iowa State, which plummeted from the rankings after losing two straight. But the committee isn’t supposed to care when you lost your games. Losing in September is not better than losing in November. At least that’s what they say.
Team A is Arizona State. Its 10-point loss to Cincinnati came without starting QB Sam Leavitt and was due, at least in part, to a kicking game so traumatic head coach Kenny Dillingham held an open tryout afterward. The Sun Devils and Cyclones are two of three two-loss Power 4 teams unranked this week (alongside Pitt), but unlike Iowa State and Pitt, Arizona State isn’t coming off back-to-back losses. The Sun Devils’ absence seems entirely correlated to the fact that no one believed this team would be any good entering the season, and so few people have looked closely enough to change their minds that the committee feels comfortable ignoring them.
The team the committee can’t ignore, however, is Team C. That would be Colorado. Coach Prime has convinced the world the Buffaloes are for real, even if nothing on their résumé — a No. 77 strength of schedule, worse than 7-2 Western Kentucky‘s — suggests that’s anything close to a certainty.
The Big 12 remains wide open, but it’s to the committee’s detriment that it has so eagerly dismissed two of the better teams just because they’re not as fun to talk about.
Has Missouri played with fire this year? You betcha. Just last week, the Tigers were on the verge of falling to Oklahoma before the Sooners’ woeful QB situation reared its ugly head again and the game ended in a 30-23 Tigers win.
But here’s the thing about playing with fire: So long as you don’t turn your living room into an inferno, it’s actually pretty impressive.
Missouri is 7-2 with wins against SP+ Nos. 26 and 28, and its only losses are to the committee’s No. 10 and No. 15 teams. SP+ has Missouri at No. 17, though we can chalk that up to Connelly’s hometown bias. But No. 23? After a top-10 season in 2023, don’t the Tigers deserve a little benefit of the doubt? They currently trail three three-loss teams (Louisville, South Carolina and LSU) and are behind Boise State, Colorado, Washington State and Clemson, who, combined, have exactly one win over SP+ top-40 teams.
There’s a good chance that, should Brady Cook not return to the lineup, Missouri will get waxed at South Carolina on Saturday, and then the argument is moot. But the committee isn’t supposed to look ahead and take guesses at what it believes might happen (Florida State’s snub last year notwithstanding). It’s supposed to judge based on what’s on the books so far, and putting Missouri this far down the rankings seems more than a tad harsh.
The committee threw a nice bone to the non-Power 4 schools this week, with four teams ranked, including No. 25 Tulane Green Wave. That seems deserved, given Tulane’s recent run. But what is it, exactly, that puts the Green Wave ahead of UNLV?
UNLV has the No. 31 strength of record. Tulane is No. 32.
UNLV has the No. 98 strength of schedule played. Tulane is No. 96.
Tulane has a one-possession loss to a top-20 team. UNLV has a one-possession loss to a top-20 team.
The key difference between the two is UNLV has wins against two Power 4 opponents — Houston and Kansas. Houston, by the way, just knocked off Kansas State, a team that beat Tulane.
So perhaps the committee should spread a bit more love outside the Power 4.
Also Angry: Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2, unranked), Duke Blue Devils (7-3, unranked), Georgia Bulldogs (7-2, No. 12), Utah Utes AD Mark Harlan (the Utes would be ranked if Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark hadn’t rigged the system!) and UConn Huskies (7-3, unranked and thus prohibiting us from Jim Mora Jr. giving a “You wanna talk about playoffs?!?” rant).
Oregon remained No. 1 in the second rankings released by the College Football Playoff selection committee on Tuesday night.
The Ducks, who cruised past Maryland 39-18 last week to improve to 10-0, were followed by No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Texas, No. 4 Penn State and No. 5 Indiana.
Miami’s first loss of the season, 28-23 at Georgia Tech, and Georgia’s second defeat, 28-10 at Ole Miss, shook up the committee’s rankings. The Hurricanes fell five spots to No. 9, while the Bulldogs dropped nine spots to No. 12.
Using the current rankings, Oregon (Big Ten), Texas (SEC), BYU (Big 12) and Miami (ACC) would be the four highest-rated conference champions and would receive first-round byes in the 12-team playoff.
Boise State is No. 13 in the committee’s rankings, but the Broncos would be included in the 12-team playoff as the fifth-highest-rated conference champion from the Mountain West.
The first-round matchups would look like this: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State; No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Penn State, No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Indiana; and No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Tennessee.
Although Georgia, which captured two of the past three CFP national championships, is ranked No. 12 in the committee’s rankings, the Bulldogs would be the first team left out of the 12-team playoff.
The Gamecocks and Green Wave made their CFP rankings debuts this season, replacing Iowa State and Pittsburgh, who were Nos. 17 and 18 last week, respectively.
There were nine SEC teams included in the committee’s rankings, four each from the ACC and Big Ten and three from the Big 12.
Georgia, which also fell 41-34 at Alabama on Sept. 28, plays what might be a CFP elimination game against Tennessee at Sanford Stadium on Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET/ABC, ESPN+). Georgia is 14-3 after a loss under coach Kirby Smart, bouncing back after each of its previous eight defeats. The Bulldogs haven’t lost back-to-back games in the regular season since 2016, Smart’s first season coaching his alma mater.
Georgia has defeated Tennessee in seven of its past eight contests, including a 38-10 win on the road last season.
Asked about the CFP implications of the game on Monday, Smart said his team had to solely focus on beating the Volunteers.
“I don’t ever take those approaches,” Smart said. “I don’t think they’re the right way to go about things. I think you’re trying to win your conference all the time, and to do that you’ve got to win your games at home. You’ve got to play well on the road, which we have and haven’t. We’ve done both, but I like making it about who we play and how we play, and less about just outcomes.”
BYU survived a 22-21 scare at Utah last week. With Miami’s loss, the Cougars jumped the Hurricane as the third-highest-rated conference champion. BYU hosts Kansas on Saturday, followed by a road game at Arizona State on Nov. 23 and home game against Houston the next week. According to ESPN Analytics, BYU is the heavy favorite (92%) to earn a spot in the Big 12 title game and also win it (40%).
Army would be the next-highest-rated conference champion behind Boise State, one spot ahead of fellow AAC program Tulane. The Black Knights improved to 9-0 with last week’s 14-3 victory at North Texas. They’ll have their best chance to make a statement to the selection committee in their next game, against Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium in New York on Nov. 23.
The four first-round games will be played at the home campus of the higher-seeded teams on Dec. 20 and 21. The four quarterfinal games will be staged at the VRBO Fiesta Bowl, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
The two semifinal games will take place at the Capital One Orange Bowl and Goodyear Cotton Bowl on Jan. 9 and 10.
The CFP National Championship presented by AT&T is scheduled for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
ATHENS, Ga. — Georgia coach Kirby Smart said Tuesday he went too far when he called backup safety Jake Pope an “idiot” for appearing to celebrate with Mississippi fans following the Bulldogs’ loss to the Rebels last weekend.
Pope issued an apology Monday — and a clarification about what happened — after a video of him appearing to celebrate following the Bulldogs’ 28-10 loss at Ole Miss on the field with Rebels fans drew sharp criticism from Smart.
When asked about the video Monday, Smart said: “What an idiot. I mean just stupid. I didn’t see it until today, but he’s embarrassed about it. He’s upset about it.”
One day later, Smart said he regretted his choice of words and complimented Pope for the way he explained the situation to his teammates.
“I’ll say I should not have called the kid an idiot and that was a mistake by me, but I appreciate Jake,” Smart said. “He’s a great kid. He works really hard. He’s a team player. I think he knows it was an emotional mistake, and he told the team that. So, I appreciate the way he handled it.”
Pope said in an explanation he posted on X he was surprised to see longtime family friends from his hometown of Buford, Georgia, on the field. He said his friends, including one wearing the jersey of Ole Miss offensive lineman Reece McIntyre, also from Buford, “were extremely excited to see me after the game. I was also surprised to see them as well. And that’s why you saw the reaction that I gave via the video.”
In the video, a smiling Pope jumped up and down with his friends. His actions looked especially bad to Georgia fans because Pope was surrounded by Ole Miss fans who rushed onto the field, making it appear as if he were joining their celebration.
Pope has played in three games this season after his transfer from Alabama.
“I am Georgia through thick and thin and have never loved a group of guys more than the guys I go to battle with day in and day out,” Pope said. “Lastly, and once again, I’m sorry to my teammates, coaches and fans all around about the way that video looked.”
The No. 12 Bulldogs host No. 7 Tennessee in what might be a CFP elimination game at Sanford Stadium on Saturday night (7:30 p.m. ET/ABC, ESPN+).
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.