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Two games into the 2022 World Series, there has been no shortage of drama on the field in Houston.

First, it was the underdog Phillies storming back from a 5-0 deficit in Game 1 and handing the Astros their first loss of the postseason thanks to J.T. Realmuto‘s game-winning 10th-inning long ball.

Then, it was Houston’s turn to remind everyone why they were such a heavy favorite to begin with by scoring three first-inning runs against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler in a series-tying 5-2 Game 2 victory.

With a travel day Sunday before the Series shifts to Philadelphia for three games beginning Monday night, we asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Joon Lee, Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers to break down what they’ve seen so far and what we should expect from here.

What has surprised you most about the first two games?

Lee: The continued struggles of Justin Verlander in the World Series. For someone who has such a storied career, it’s truly remarkable that the Astros ace’s 6.07 ERA is the worst among all starting pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched in the World Series. His inability to hold the lead opened the door for Philadelphia to beat the juggernaut Astros in Friday’s opener, and if the Phillies end up raising the trophy, that will have set the tone.

Rogers: Aaron Nola and Wheeler getting knocked around to the tune of 10 runs (nine earned) in their two starts. Wheeler, in particular, left too many pitches over the plate in the two innings he gave up runs, and neither pitcher looked very sharp. The Phillies need their two aces to be much better in their next outings.

Passan: The impermeability of the Phillies’ bullpen. Entering the Series, Phillies relievers were good enough — a 3.19 ERA, 53 strikeouts in 42⅓ postseason innings — but nothing compared to the Astros, whose bullpen allowed three runs in 33 innings, all on solo home runs. Between the 5⅓ shutout innings relieving Nola in Game 1 and three more scoreless picking up Wheeler in Game 2, Philadelphia’s pen is performing like a weapon. Whether it can do so deeper into the Series may make or break the Phillies.

Doolittle: I had wondered how the Phillies would navigate around the Yordan Alvarez/Kyle Tucker section of the Houston lineup late in close games once Jose Alvarado was spent. Rob Thomson was way ahead of me by using starter Ranger Suarez in the first game as a second bullpen lefty. But Suarez will be starting Game 4, presumably taking him off the table as a relief option in either of the next two games, so my curiosity remains.

Was the Phillies’ Game 1 victory a mirage, or will they hang with the Astros from here?

Doolittle: It wasn’t a mirage — unlikely as it is for the Phillies, or any team, to overcome a five-run deficit in a World Series. The Astros are still in good shape, but as long as the Phillies’ bullpen keeps answering the bell, we should be in for more tight games and some dramatic moments. Houston is still favored, but it’s a best-of-five now and Philly has the home advantage after the split.

Lee: Even though I think the Astros are going to win this Series, I would be really surprised if the Phillies don’t pull out at least one, maybe two games during their three games at home. Philadelphia’s lineup made things interesting in the eighth inning of Game 2, making it tighter than the final box score would suggest — and I expect this to continue into Games 3, 4 and 5.

Passan: This series has all the hallmarks of a long one: a split to start, offenses capable of getting conflagrant at any moment and bullpens that are performing at an elite level. Of the 59 World Series to start with a split, 45 of them went to at least a sixth game, according to ESPN Stats and Info. And if this series follows suit and returns to Houston, it’s bound to be a coin toss between two very talented, very motivated teams.

Rogers: The Phillies can definitely hang with Houston — I thought that before the Series — especially considering they’re going home for three games. After Game 2, players in both clubhouses were discussing the Philly crowd and the electricity it’ll bring. Houston won’t be intimidated, but the Phillies won’t get swept there, either — no way. All to say: It’s going to be a long Series.

How do you expect the atmosphere to change now that the Series is headed to Philly?

Rogers: With all due respect to Astros fans — and it could be due to their building’s acoustics — it is likely to be louder and more chaotic in outdoor Citizens Bank Park than it was in indoor Minute Maid Park. Phillies fans have been a difference-maker, according to their players, for a team that has gone 5-0 at home this postseason. It’s going to be wild in Philadelphia for these next three games.

Lee: Astros fans have been loud and rowdy during the World Series, but Phillies fans are thirsty for their first championship since 2008. Between the Phillies’ success and the Eagles’ strong start, Philadelphia has a lot to cheer about right now, and I expect that energy to transfer over. And to give you some anecdotal evidence of how rowdy this Phillies crowd could get: A friend from college sprained his ankle while celebrating Rhys Hoskins‘ third-inning homer in Game 5 of the NLCS and stayed the rest of the game. “I’ll smash my other foot if it locks in a title.” Expect that kind of energy for Game 3.

Doolittle: More people rooting for the Phillies? It’ll be a different vibe and a wild one. Cooler weather. No option to close a roof. This shouldn’t be a huge factor, though. The Astros have a core of players who have won plenty of postseason games on the road, including the World Series. Houston has actually been more successful away from home during the Fall Classic during this current window of winning.

Passan: The Phillies are the only team in sports whose nickname directly descends from the name of the city, and that city happens to be populated by people who will tattoo the Phillie Phanatic around their bellybutton. So it’s no surprise that the get-in price for Game 3 is more than $700. If for some reason you still think Citizens Bank Park isn’t going to be the most rowdy, festive, ridiculous joint this postseason, well, you’re probably from Houston.

Who is your World Series MVP so far — and will he take home the award in the end?

Doolittle: Seems pretty wide open. I don’t think anyone has impacted one of the wins more than Realmuto in Game 1 or Framber Valdez in Game 2. I’d probably split the vote between them right now. Then I’d point out that Jose Altuve is heating up and will probably end up winning it at the end.

Rogers: Valdez. He came along at the right moment for the Astros after they dropped Game 1. Imagine being down 2-0 then going to Philadelphia — this Series would probably be over. I believe Valdez will win it in the end as well. He still has another great outing in him even after throwing 104 pitches Saturday night.

Lee: For now, Realmuto. If the Phillies are able to win the World Series, it will be because they were able to take one of the first two games in Houston — and that does not happen without the Phillies’ slugging catcher.

Passan: Generally speaking, positional adjustments are far more important over a large span of games. But when it comes to catcher, the demands they face in a short series — especially of immense consequence like the one that crowns the champion — need to be weighed heavily. Which means that as brilliant as Valdez was in Game 2, Realmuto almost single-handedly winning Game 1 and playing his typically excellent baseball in Game 2 makes him the choice. He’s not a bad bet for the rest of the Series, either.

Would you like to revise your original World Series prediction?

Doolittle: Astros in 6? Seems about right. Haven’t seen anything that would make me change my mind.

Lee: The Phillies have had an incredible playoff run, but I still think the talent of this Astros team will win out in the end.

Passan: Ask me after Game 4.

Rogers: I had the Astros in 7, and as much as I like the Phillies’ mojo, Houston’s pitching will be the difference over the long Series.

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Unsettled playoff races? Another milestone for Ohtani? What to watch in MLB’s final weekend

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Unsettled playoff races? Another milestone for Ohtani? What to watch in MLB's final weekend

Travis d’Arnaud hit the biggest home of the season for the Atlanta Braves. Fans of the New York Mets are in a state of panic. Paul Skenes delivered two more scoreless innings to cap off his stunning rookie season with a 1.96 ERA. Saturday is in the books. We have one full day of the regular season left — plus the Braves-Mets doubleheader Monday.

Here’s what to watch, starting with the National League wild-card race, where the Braves now have a one-game lead over the Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks as the three teams battle for two spots.

New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers shut out the Mets 6-0 on Saturday, handing the Mets their first three-game losing streak since Aug. 11. When the Braves beat the Royals 2-1 later, it dropped the Mets behind the Braves in the standings for the first time since Sept. 4.

The Mets will start David Peterson on Sunday. The lefty has allowed five runs in two of his past three starts, although he has generally been effective since July, with a 2.90 ERA over his past 15 starts. The Brewers are locked into the third seed and will certainly rest all their top relievers as they get ready for Tuesday’s wild-card series. Colin Rea gets the start for Milwaukee, but expect a heavy bullpen game with the secondary relievers getting the action.

The Mets used their top three starters in this series: Sean Manaea on Friday, Jose Quintana on Saturday and now Peterson. That means Luis Severino and Tylor Megill are the likely starters for Monday’s doubleheader. The Braves do have a righty-heavy lineup and have an OPS nearly 70 points higher against lefties, so at least the Mets will have their two right-handed starters going Monday.


Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves

The Braves beat the Royals on d’Arnaud’s walk-off home run. Reynaldo Lopez returned from the injured list to make his first start for Atlanta since Sept. 10 and allowed just two hits and one run in six innings. The 2024 All-Star finishes the season with a 2.00 ERA in 25 starts (although he didn’t pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title).

The Braves’ gamble to hold off on starting probable Cy Young winner Chris Sale until absolutely needed has paid off. Sale could have started Friday, but the Braves have said they were going to hold him back until facing potential elimination. With a one-game lead in the wild-card race, the earliest that now could come would be the second game of the doubleheader against the Mets. The best-case scenario, of course, is that they clinch before using Sale and having him ready for Game 1 of the wild-card series.

As of Saturday night, manager Brian Snitker said the team hadn’t decided on a Sunday starter. Charlie Morton would be the starter with the most rest, but the Braves might want to save him for the Mets. That could leave Grant Holmes to face a slumping Kansas City offense.

Remember as well: The Braves lead the season series 6-5 over the Mets, meaning the tiebreaker between the two teams is still up for grabs.


San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks

The Padres blanked the Diamondbacks 5-0 on Saturday — the second shutout in four games for the high-powered Arizona attack and their fifth loss in six games as a wild-card spot that looked pretty safe a week ago is suddenly in jeopardy. Indeed, the key to remember here is the Diamondbacks lose the tiebreaker to both the Mets and Braves.

Sunday now feels like a must-win for Arizona. If they lose again, one win by the Mets on Sunday or in Monday’s doubleheader would eliminate the Diamondbacks.

With Zac Gallen in line to start the wild-card opener after pitching Wednesday, Brandon Pfaadt will start Sunday against Martin Perez. Pfaadt has been all over the place lately, getting knocked out in the third inning of his last start and in the second inning two starts ago, but sandwiched around a 12-strikeout game.


American League wild card

Lots of this was settled Friday night: First, before a boisterous crowd of 44,435 fans at Comerica Park, the Tigers beat the White Sox 4-1 to win their sixth straight game and clinch their first playoff spot since 2014. They had been tied with the Angels for the longest active playoff drought in the majors.

The Royals backed into their first postseason since 2015 when the Twins lost.

The Orioles clinched the fourth seed in beating Minnesota. The Tigers are one game up on the Royals for the fifth seed, but the Royals hold the tiebreaker in case they finish with the same record. The fifth seed will play at Baltimore while the sixth seed will play at Houston in the wild-card series (the higher seed gets all home games). The good news for the both the Tigers and Royals is they can save Tarik Skubal and Cole Ragans for the first games of the wild-card series, rather than having to start them Sunday.


Battles for the best record and top seed

  • The Dodgers clinched both the top seed in the NL and the top seed overall (the fourth time in eight season the Dodgers finished with MLB’s best record). That leaves the Phillies as the No. 2 seed in the NL.

  • Despite a 9-4 loss to the Pirates as Luis Gil served up four home runs, the Yankees clinched the top seed in the AL when the Guardians lost, making Cleveland the No. 2 seed.

  • The No. 5 and No. 6 seeds in both leagues remain unsettled. The Tigers have a one-game lead over the Royals in the AL, but the Royals hold the tiebreaker if they finish with the same record.


The Shohei Ohtani watch … continues

The man is not slowing down. You thought we were done with Ohtani milestones after he cleared 50/50? No way. He went 2-for-5 with his 58th stolen base in Saturday’s blowout win over Colorado — his 35th consecutive stolen base without getting caught. Going back to his 6-for-6 game, he’s an incredible 26-for-39, a .667 average.

What can he do if he plays Sunday? He’s at 99 extra-base hits; the last players to reach 100 did it in 2001. And the Triple Crown is in play. Ohtani raised his average to .310. League leader Luis Arraez didn’t play Saturday, so remains at .314. It will be interesting to see if Arraez sits again on his .314 average and forces Ohtani to have a big day to catch him.

If Ohtani goes 4-for-5, he would be hitting .31397. Arraez is currently at .31388.


Other statistical races at play

  • Can Aaron Judge get to 60 home runs? Judge was back in the lineup Saturday after a day off, but went 0-for-5 with five strikeouts. That dropped his slugging percentage to .701 as he tries to become the first player to slug .700 since Barry Bonds in 2004. The last player to do so outside of the 1994 to 2004 window was Ted Williams in 1957.

  • Ohtani already passed 400 total bases, the first time that was done since 2001. Judge is at 392 so would likely need a two-homer finale to get there.

  • Bobby Witt Jr. now looks like a lock for the AL batting title. He has held the lead all summer, and when he peaked with a .352 average on Aug. 16, he held a comfortable 19-point lead over Judge (and 33 points over Vladimir Guerrero Jr.). After sitting Saturday, Witt remained at .332, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 0-for-4 to fall to .324 while Judge dropped to .322 (which also eliminates his chance of a Triple Crown).

  • Jose Ramirez hit his 39th home run Saturday, so needs one more to join the exclusive 40/40 club, which has just six members: Ohtani, Ronald Acuna Jr. (2023), Alfonso Soriano (2006), Alex Rodriguez (1998), Barry Bonds (1996) and Jose Canseco (1998).

  • Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals has 49 saves; 50 saves has been achieved 17 times, the last by Edwin Diaz in 2018.


Saying goodbye

Joey Votto, who didn’t play in the majors this season after signing a minor league contract with the Blue Jays, announced his retirement a few weeks ago, and his next stop will eventually be receiving a Hall of Fame plaque in Cooperstown. Two longtime outfielders have also officially announced their retirements at the end of the season:

  • Los Angeles Dodgers CF Kevin Kiermaier: It’s not clear whether Kiermaier will make the Dodgers’ playoff roster as a backup outfielder (he has hit .164 with the Dodgers and has started just two games in September), so this could be it for one of the best defensive center fielders of all time. Yes, all time. Kiermaier has won four Gold Gloves, displaying incredible lateral range during his heyday with the Tampa Bay Rays. His 38 defensive runs saved in 2015 is the best single-season total for a center fielder since DRS began in 2003, and his career total of 173 is the most for any outfielder since 2003 (and third most at any position, behind only Andrelton Simmons and Adrian Beltre). Kiermaier’s defensive excellence is reflected in his career WAR of 36.1. Not bad for a 31st-round pick from Parkland Community College.

  • Colorado Rockies DH/OF Charlie Blackmon: Blackmon has spent his entire 14-year career with the Rockies. It took him a while to get situated in the big leagues — his first full season didn’t come until he was 27 years old — but he went on to become a four-time All-Star and finished fifth in the 2017 NL MVP voting after leading the league in batting average (.331), hits (213) and runs (137). His power declined after that 2016 to 2019 peak, but he’s one of the most popular players in Rockies history and will finish with more than 1,800 hits in the majors.

There might be a few other veterans playing their final games who just haven’t yet announced their retirements. Matt Carpenter comes to mind here. Kyle Hendricks wants to pitch in 2025, but he heads into free agency, and his start Saturday at Wrigley Field will likely be his final one after 11 seasons with the Chicago Cubs. Let’s hope Andrew McCutchen returns to the Pittsburgh Pirates for another season after he put up solid numbers in 2024. If these guys don’t return — thanks for the memorable careers.

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Bama blows 28-0 lead, escapes UGA on late TD

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Bama blows 28-0 lead, escapes UGA on late TD

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Alabama blew a 28-point lead against No. 2 Georgia at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday night.

And then the No. 4 Crimson Tide broke the Bulldogs’ hearts again in a 41-34 victory in which the SEC heavyweights scored touchdowns on consecutive plays from scrimmage late in the fourth quarter.

Alabama didn’t seal the victory until cornerback Zabien Brown intercepted quarterback Carson Beck‘s pass to receiver Colbie Young in the end zone with 43 seconds left to end Georgia’s furious rally.

After the Bulldogs rallied from a 23-point deficit at halftime, they took their first lead on Beck’s 67-yard touchdown to Dillon Bell to make it 34-33 with 2:31 to go.

But Alabama scored on its very next play from scrimmage. On first-and-10 from the Crimson Tide 25, quarterback Jalen Milroe threw a deep ball down the right sideline for freshman Ryan Williams. The receiver spun out of cornerback Julian Humphrey‘s tackle at the 8-yard line and beat safety KJ Bolden for a 75-yard touchdown with 2:18 remaining. Milroe threw a 2-point conversion to receiver Germie Bernard to give Alabama a 41-34 lead.

Milroe completed 27 of 33 passes for 374 yards with two touchdowns and ran for 117 yards with two scores. He is the first player in FBS history with 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns against an AP top-five opponent, according to ESPN Research.

Williams, a 17-year-old freshman, had six catches for 177 yards with one score.

Beck recovered from a slow start to complete 27 of 50 passes for 439 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. He also lost a fumble and was sacked three times.

The loss ended Georgia’s 42-game winning streak in the regular season, which was the longest run by an FBS team since Oklahoma won 45 in a row from 1953 to 1957. It also snapped Georgia’s 16-game winning streak on the road.

It was new Tide coach Kalen DeBoer’s first meeting with Georgia, but the results were the same for Alabama. It has won nine of its past 10 games against Georgia, including a 27-24 victory in last year’s SEC championship game, which led to the Bulldogs failing to make the College Football Playoff.

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Texas overcomes sloppy start to nab 1st SEC win

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Texas overcomes sloppy start to nab 1st SEC win

AUSTIN, Texas — No. 1 Texas got its first SEC win behind the arm of Arch Manning, who helped the Longhorns overcome a slow start and some self-inflicted setbacks to beat Mississippi State 35-13 on Saturday.

Manning was 26-of-31 for 324 yards and two touchdowns and added 33 rushing yards and another score, despite Johntay Cook II dropping a wide-open touchdown pass that would’ve added another 62 passing yards in the second quarter. A week after throwing two interceptions in his first start against UL Monroe, Manning said he felt more relaxed.

“I think last week I didn’t have as much fun as I wanted to,” Manning said. “I think I had a little bit more fun today even though it was a little rocky.”

It was rocky because running back Jaydon Blue lost two fumbles — one in the red zone — Cook dropped a touchdown and there were eight penalties on the Texas offense. Coach Steve Sarkisian criticized himself for kicking a field goal, then going for it on fourth down after a defensive penalty gave the Longhorns another chance. Texas failed to convert, taking three points off the board.

The Longhorns went into halftime with a 14-6 lead, with Mississippi State running a ground-heavy approach behind true freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. The Bulldogs ran 73 plays on the night to Texas’ 62, but the Longhorns outgained them 522 yards to 294. There were also 17 penalties in the game, many with lengthy reviews.

“It was hard for the game to get a rhythm to it,” Sarkisian said.

But he was pleased that the Longhorns navigated this stretch of the season and Quinn Ewers‘ injury to start 5-0. It’s the second straight season Texas has started 5-0, marking just the second time in the past 50 years the Longhorns have done it in back-to-back years. Texas has an off week coming up, followed by the Red River Rivalry in Dallas against Oklahoma, before Georgia comes to Austin the following week.

Sarkisian said the Longhorns showed poise, and he was pleased they were able to survive their first SEC challenge while letting Ewers recover from a strained oblique injury without having to rush him back.

“We need Quinn back because he’s our quarterback and he’s our leader,” Sarkisian said. “I think that impacts the entire team and belief, but what I think we learned and what Arch learned here over the last 2½ games is this team can count on him too.”

Manning said he’s ready for Ewers’ return whenever that might be.

“I think Quinn’s proved himself,” Manning said. “I mean, he led us to the Sugar Bowl last year and he’s played really well this year, so this is his team. I think he’s going to come back and play really well, but I’ll be ready for when my number’s called if they need me. So we’re just going to try and keep this thing rolling.”

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