Two games into the 2022 World Series, there has been no shortage of drama on the field in Houston.
First, it was the underdog Phillies storming back from a 5-0 deficit in Game 1 and handing the Astros their first loss of the postseason thanks to J.T. Realmuto‘s game-winning 10th-inning long ball.
Then, it was Houston’s turn to remind everyone why they were such a heavy favorite to begin with by scoring three first-inning runs against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler in a series-tying 5-2 Game 2 victory.
With a travel day Sunday before the Series shifts to Philadelphia for three games beginning Monday night, we asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Joon Lee, Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers to break down what they’ve seen so far and what we should expect from here.
What has surprised you most about the first two games?
Lee: The continued struggles of Justin Verlander in the World Series. For someone who has such a storied career, it’s truly remarkable that the Astros ace’s 6.07 ERA is the worst among all starting pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched in the World Series. His inability to hold the lead opened the door for Philadelphia to beat the juggernaut Astros in Friday’s opener, and if the Phillies end up raising the trophy, that will have set the tone.
Rogers: Aaron Nola and Wheeler getting knocked around to the tune of 10 runs (nine earned) in their two starts. Wheeler, in particular, left too many pitches over the plate in the two innings he gave up runs, and neither pitcher looked very sharp. The Phillies need their two aces to be much better in their next outings.
Passan: The impermeability of the Phillies’ bullpen. Entering the Series, Phillies relievers were good enough — a 3.19 ERA, 53 strikeouts in 42⅓ postseason innings — but nothing compared to the Astros, whose bullpen allowed three runs in 33 innings, all on solo home runs. Between the 5⅓ shutout innings relieving Nola in Game 1 and three more scoreless picking up Wheeler in Game 2, Philadelphia’s pen is performing like a weapon. Whether it can do so deeper into the Series may make or break the Phillies.
Doolittle: I had wondered how the Phillies would navigate around the Yordan Alvarez/Kyle Tucker section of the Houston lineup late in close games once Jose Alvarado was spent. Rob Thomson was way ahead of me by using starter Ranger Suarez in the first game as a second bullpen lefty. But Suarez will be starting Game 4, presumably taking him off the table as a relief option in either of the next two games, so my curiosity remains.
Was the Phillies’ Game 1 victory a mirage, or will they hang with the Astros from here?
Doolittle: It wasn’t a mirage — unlikely as it is for the Phillies, or any team, to overcome a five-run deficit in a World Series. The Astros are still in good shape, but as long as the Phillies’ bullpen keeps answering the bell, we should be in for more tight games and some dramatic moments. Houston is still favored, but it’s a best-of-five now and Philly has the home advantage after the split.
Lee: Even though I think the Astros are going to win this Series, I would be really surprised if the Phillies don’t pull out at least one, maybe two games during their three games at home. Philadelphia’s lineup made things interesting in the eighth inning of Game 2, making it tighter than the final box score would suggest — and I expect this to continue into Games 3, 4 and 5.
Passan: This series has all the hallmarks of a long one: a split to start, offenses capable of getting conflagrant at any moment and bullpens that are performing at an elite level. Of the 59 World Series to start with a split, 45 of them went to at least a sixth game, according to ESPN Stats and Info. And if this series follows suit and returns to Houston, it’s bound to be a coin toss between two very talented, very motivated teams.
Rogers: The Phillies can definitely hang with Houston — I thought that before the Series — especially considering they’re going home for three games. After Game 2, players in both clubhouses were discussing the Philly crowd and the electricity it’ll bring. Houston won’t be intimidated, but the Phillies won’t get swept there, either — no way. All to say: It’s going to be a long Series.
How do you expect the atmosphere to change now that the Series is headed to Philly?
Rogers: With all due respect to Astros fans — and it could be due to their building’s acoustics — it is likely to be louder and more chaotic in outdoor Citizens Bank Park than it was in indoor Minute Maid Park. Phillies fans have been a difference-maker, according to their players, for a team that has gone 5-0 at home this postseason. It’s going to be wild in Philadelphia for these next three games.
Lee: Astros fans have been loud and rowdy during the World Series, but Phillies fans are thirsty for their first championship since 2008. Between the Phillies’ success and the Eagles’ strong start, Philadelphia has a lot to cheer about right now, and I expect that energy to transfer over. And to give you some anecdotal evidence of how rowdy this Phillies crowd could get: A friend from college sprained his ankle while celebrating Rhys Hoskins‘ third-inning homer in Game 5 of the NLCS and stayed the rest of the game. “I’ll smash my other foot if it locks in a title.” Expect that kind of energy for Game 3.
Doolittle: More people rooting for the Phillies? It’ll be a different vibe and a wild one. Cooler weather. No option to close a roof. This shouldn’t be a huge factor, though. The Astros have a core of players who have won plenty of postseason games on the road, including the World Series. Houston has actually been more successful away from home during the Fall Classic during this current window of winning.
Passan: The Phillies are the only team in sports whose nickname directly descends from the name of the city, and that city happens to be populated by people who will tattoo the Phillie Phanatic around their bellybutton. So it’s no surprise that the get-in price for Game 3 is more than $700. If for some reason you still think Citizens Bank Park isn’t going to be the most rowdy, festive, ridiculous joint this postseason, well, you’re probably from Houston.
Who is your World Series MVP so far — and will he take home the award in the end?
Doolittle: Seems pretty wide open. I don’t think anyone has impacted one of the wins more than Realmuto in Game 1 or Framber Valdez in Game 2. I’d probably split the vote between them right now. Then I’d point out that Jose Altuve is heating up and will probably end up winning it at the end.
Rogers: Valdez. He came along at the right moment for the Astros after they dropped Game 1. Imagine being down 2-0 then going to Philadelphia — this Series would probably be over. I believe Valdez will win it in the end as well. He still has another great outing in him even after throwing 104 pitches Saturday night.
Lee: For now, Realmuto. If the Phillies are able to win the World Series, it will be because they were able to take one of the first two games in Houston — and that does not happen without the Phillies’ slugging catcher.
Passan: Generally speaking, positional adjustments are far more important over a large span of games. But when it comes to catcher, the demands they face in a short series — especially of immense consequence like the one that crowns the champion — need to be weighed heavily. Which means that as brilliant as Valdez was in Game 2, Realmuto almost single-handedly winning Game 1 and playing his typically excellent baseball in Game 2 makes him the choice. He’s not a bad bet for the rest of the Series, either.
Would you like to revise your original World Series prediction?
Doolittle: Astros in 6? Seems about right. Haven’t seen anything that would make me change my mind.
Lee: The Phillies have had an incredible playoff run, but I still think the talent of this Astros team will win out in the end.
Passan: Ask me after Game 4.
Rogers: I had the Astros in 7, and as much as I like the Phillies’ mojo, Houston’s pitching will be the difference over the long Series.
MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — On Sept. 7, Notre Dame fell to Northern Illinois, a 28-point underdog, in one of the most stunning defeats in the program’s storied history.
The then-No. 5 Fighting Irish not only lost to the Huskies at home, but they were manhandled by a Mid-American Conference program that had never beaten an AP top-10 opponent. Northern Illinois outgained the Irish 388-286 in total yardage, converted twice as many first downs, allowed just two plays longer than 19 yards and blocked two field goals.
For the Fighting Irish, who had won 23-13 at Texas A&M in their opener a week before, their season could have been over as it barely started.
“It could have gone sideways fast,” Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden said.
Four months later, the Fighting Irish are somehow one victory away from capturing their first national championship in 36 years.
Notre Dame defeated Penn State 27-24 on Mitch Jeter‘s 41-yard field goal with seven seconds left in a College Football Playoff semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl on Thursday night.
The No. 7 Fighting Irish will play the winner of Friday’s other semifinal between No. 5 Texas and No. 8 Ohio State at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic in the Jan. 20 CFP National Championship presented by AT&T.
The team that couldn’t beat a four-touchdown underdog at home has now won 13 consecutive games — with a chance for one more, the biggest of them all.
“I often tell them, in your lowest moments you find out the most about yourself,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said. “We’ve had low moments, but we had a really low moment Week 2, and these guys battled. We’ve got great leaders. We’ve got great players that chose to put this university and this football program in front of themselves.”
Notre Dame’s coaches and players credit Freeman, who turned 39 at midnight after the game, with keeping the Irish on track after their stunning loss to Northern Illinois. It was an arduous task for a former defensive coordinator who had never been a head coach until he was promoted on Dec. 3, 2021, to replace Brian Kelly, who left for LSU.
“He handled it magnificently,” Golden said. “Just being in that situation, being in that chair like that, that’s tough. There’s no escape from it, but it never got to the locker room. It never got to the team meeting room. He handled all the stress and all the pressure internally, and was the leader that we all needed at that moment.”
Freeman didn’t want the Fighting Irish to wipe the pain of losing to Northern Illinois from their memory. He wanted them to embrace the adversity to remember that they can never take anything for granted.
Freeman’s message to his team was simple: Keep the pain. Don’t let it go.
“I think it really caused us to lock the locker room door and say, ‘Hey, it’s just us. The people in this room are the only things that matter,'” linebacker Jack Kiser said. “I think Coach Freeman’s message and mentality through the rest of the year kind of echoed that.”
The day after the loss to Northern Illinois, defensive tackle Howard Cross III huddled with Freeman and quarterback Riley Leonard.
“It’s the second game of the season,” Cross told them. “I’m not going to go belly up in the second game of the season. We need to keep pushing.”
The Irish won their next 12 games by an average of 27.5 points. Only one of them, a 31-24 victory over Louisville, was decided by fewer than 10.
After reaching the CFP, Notre Dame defeated Indiana 27-17 in a first-round game on Dec. 20, then Georgia 23-10 in a quarterfinal game at the Allstate Sugar Bowl on Jan. 2.
“I think you learn the most about your team and the guys around you at the lowest points, and we showed who we were after that game,” said receiver Jordan Faison. “After that loss, it was devastating. Everyone felt bad about it, but being able to bounce back kind of shows the team and the grit we’ve got.”
The scar tissue from 124 days ago is what helped the Irish overcome season-ending injuries to several of their best players, including All-American cornerback Benjamin Morrison and star pass rusher Rylie Mills.
It’s what helped them overcome injuries in their victory over Penn State. With the Irish trailing 10-0 late in the first half, Leonard had to leave the game after he was hit by defensive tackle Dvon J-Thomas on an incomplete pass. They lost two starting offensive linemen, left tackle Anthonie Knapp and right guard Rocco Spindler, to injuries as well.
While Leonard was being examined for a potential concussion, backup quarterback Steve Angeli came off the bench and led the Irish on a 13-play scoring drive. Jeter kicked a 41-yard field goal on the final play of the half to make it 10-3.
Angeli had attempted only 28 passes this season before Thursday. He completed 6 of 7 attempts for 44 yards on his lone possession.
“We had a lot of confidence in Steve and what he can do, and we weren’t just going to put him in there to hand the ball off,” Freeman said. “We were going to go to try to score, and we ended up scoring three points.”
Leonard cleared concussion protocol at halftime and returned in the second half. He scored on a 3-yard run on the opening drive to tie the score at 10.
The Irish went ahead 17-10 on Jeremiyah Love‘s 2-yard run on the third play of the fourth quarter. But then Penn State tied the score on Nicholas Singleton’s 7-yard run with 10:20 to play.
After Leonard threw his second interception on the next play, Singleton scored again to give the Nittany Lions a 24-17 lead with 7:55 to play.
With less than five minutes remaining, Leonard threw a 54-yard touchdown to Jaden Greathouse, who was wide open after cornerback Cam Miller fell down. Greathouse juked safety Jaylen Reed and ran into the end zone to tie the score at 24.
Leonard completed 15 of 23 passes for 223 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. He led the Irish on four scoring drives in the second half.
“He’s a competitor, and competitors find a way to win, and that’s what Riley does,” Freeman said. “That’s what this team does.”
It seemed like the game was headed to overtime after both teams punted in the final minutes.
But with 35 seconds left, Penn State quarterback Drew Allar tried to throw a pass away. Safety Jaylen Sneed hit Allar as he threw, and cornerback Christian Gray intercepted the ball at the Penn State 42 to set up Jeter’s winning field goal.
“That’s what Christian Gray does,” Freeman said. “He makes plays when it matters the most.”
The Fighting Irish will have to make a few more big plays against Ohio State or Texas if they’re going to win their first national championship since 1988. They’ll likely be underdogs in Atlanta, especially if they’re playing the high-powered Buckeyes, but they wouldn’t have it any other way.
“To see how far we’ve come after the hiccup early on, just to know that we have one more guaranteed, one last one guaranteed, it’s just so exciting,” Kiser said.
The Fighting Irish believe they wouldn’t be playing for a national title if they hadn’t been tested like few other teams.
The team that wouldn’t quit somehow keeps winning.
“The time you’re tested the most is when you’re at your lowest point,” Freeman said. “We lose to Northern Illinois and you’ve got a decision: Do I want to be selfless, or am I going to put individual glory ahead of myself? I hope the nation sees no matter what the situation was, this team continues to put Notre Dame in front of [itself].”
MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — Penn State quarterback Drew Allar said he was trying to throw the ball into the ground. Notre Dame defensive back Christian Gray dove for it anyway and — luck of the Irish — the ball ended up right in his hands.
A few seconds later, Gray and Notre Dame found themselves with a spot in the national title game after a thrill-a-minute 27-24 victory over Penn State on Thursday night in the Orange Bowl.
Gray’s snag of Allar’s ill-advised pass across the middle at the Nittany Lions’ 42 with 33 seconds left set up a 19-yard drive that ended with Mitch Jeter‘s winning 41-yard field goal.
The Irish (14-1), seeded seventh in this, the first 12-team college playoff, will have a chance to bring their 12th title and first since 1988 back under the Golden Dome with a game Jan. 20 in Atlanta. Their opponent will be the winner Friday night of the Texas-Ohio State semifinal in the Cotton Bowl.
“Just catch the ball. Just catch the ball,” Gray said about his interception. “That was going through my mind, and I knew I was going to make a play.”
Allar explained he saw his first two options covered on the play, then wanted to throw the ball into the turf. But the throw, under pressure and across his body, didn’t have enough zip on it to reach either receiver Omari Evans or the ground before Gray slid in.
“Honestly, I was trying to throw it at his feet,” said the junior quarterback, considered by some to be a first-round pick if he leaves for the NFL. “I should’ve thrown it away when I saw the first two progressions were not open. I didn’t execute.”
It was the most memorable play of a game that was the best of what has been a sleepy few weeks of playoff football. It featured three ties, three lead changes and 31 points in the fourth quarter alone.
In the final, Irish coach Marcus Freeman will try to become the first Black head coach to win the title at college football’s highest level. Freeman, whose mother is South Korean, also is the first coach of Asian heritage to get this far.
“We found a way to make a play when it mattered the most,” Freeman said. “In my opinion, great teams, great programs, find a way to do that.”
Penn State coach James Franklin fell to 4-20 with the Nittany Lions against teams ranked in the AP Top 10.
“Everyone wants to look at a specific play,” Franklin said. “But there’s probably eight to 12 plays in that game that could have made a difference. I’m not going to call out specific plays or specific players. There are a ton of plays where we could have done better.”
Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard shook off a hit late in the second quarter that sent him to the medical tent to be checked for a concussion. He came back and led the Irish on four scoring drives in the second half, including the last one.
“He’s a competitor and competitors find a way to win, and that’s what Riley does,” Freeman said. “That’s what this team does.”
Leonard finished with 223 yards passing, including a key 10-yard dart to Jaden Greathouse to convert third-and-3 on the last drive. Leonard also had 35 yards rushing, and passed and ran for a score each.
With 4:38 left in the game, the senior quarterback hit Greathouse for a 54-yard score to tie it at 24 after a defender slipped.
The game started slow, but Riley’s injury injected life into things. He led Notre Dame on TD drives of 75 and 72 yards in the third quarter to take a 17-10 lead.
At that point, the fun was just getting started.
Penn State had its chances, and Allar, along with all those Nittany Lions fans, will spend the offseason reliving that last throw — or trying to forget it.
Penn State forced a Notre Dame punt and looked assured of at least going to overtime when it took over at their 15 with 47 seconds left.
After a gain of 13, Allar dropped to pass and had pressure coming. He threw across his body to the middle of the field, where Gray dove for the pick.
A review showed it was a catch, and the Irish were onto the next step on a road that looked all but impossible when they fell 16-14 to Northern Illinois back in September.
Nick Singleton ran for 84 yards and all three Penn State touchdowns. Off target for much of the day, Allar finished 12 for 23 for 135 yards with the interception.
“He’s hurting right now. He should be. We’re all hurting,” Franklin said.
The quarterback didn’t duck questions about the play or his role in the loss.
“We didn’t win the game so it wasn’t good enough, it’s plain and simple,” Allar said. “I’ll try to learn from it, do everything in my power to get better and just grow from it.”
When Leonard went out, backup Steve Angeli came in and injected life into the Fighting Irish offense on the way to its first score.
Angelli went 6 for 7 for 44 yards and moved Notre Dame to field goal range to trim its deficit to 10-3 just before halftime.
“We have a lot of confidence in Steve,” Freeman said when asked why he allowed the Irish to play aggressively when he entered.
The kickoff temperature was 56 degrees, unseasonably cool for South Florida — and making it the second-coldest Orange Bowl ever, next to the Georgia Tech-Iowa game in 2010 that started at 49 and felt like the upper 30s.
ARLINGTON, Texas — Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said Thursday that quarterback Quinn Ewers, with the emergence of name, image and likeness and the transfer portal, has become the face of this “new era of college football.”
Ewers initially committed to Texas, but he then opted to skip his senior year of high school and reclassify to the 2021 recruiting class before enrolling a year early and joining Ohio State during preseason practice.
Still the nation’s No. 1 ranked overall prospect, Ewers landed one of the first marquee NIL deals worth $1.4 million.
Ewers, who lasted one season with the Buckeyes before transferring to Texas, will square off against Ohio State on Friday night in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl with a trip to the College Football Playoff national championship on the line.
“It’s not been an easy journey for him,” Sarkisian said Thursday. “There’s been ups, there’s been downs, there’s been injuries, there’s been great moments, there’s been tough moments. … But at the end of the day, he’s always stayed true to who he is. The guy’s been a steady sea for us.”
Ewers has been making college football headlines since Ohio State offered him a scholarship when he was just in middle school. This week, Buckeyes coach Ryan Day recalled meeting Ewers for the first time when he was an eighth-grader visiting a Buckeyes football camp.
“He was a boy at the time really, who just had a tremendous release,” Day recalled. “And I remember grabbing him and grabbing his dad and said, ‘Man, you got a bright future ahead of you. I don’t know if this is good or bad, but we’re going to offer you a scholarship to Ohio State.'”
C.J. Stroud, who has since led the Houston Texans to the NFL playoffs, emerged as a star quarterback for the Buckeyes then, prompting Ewers to transfer to Texas.
“Boy, it was strange how it all shook out,” Day said. “He decided he really wanted to play. And it was disappointing for us, but we certainly understood. From afar I’ve watched him. He’s a really good player. He comes from a great family, and he’s had a great career at Texas and a lot of people here still have good relationships with him and think the world of him.”
At Texas, Ewers has started in 27 wins and led the Longhorns to back-to-back playoff appearances. This season, he has thrown for 3,189 yards and 29 touchdowns with 11 interceptions.
Ewers noted that the “coolest part” of the NIL era is being able to provide for his parents. He has even hired his mom, making her CFO of his finances while giving her a salary.
“Which is nice just because all the effort and work they put into me growing up,” he said. “I mean, when we were living in South Texas, they both quit their jobs and moved up to Southlake [to support Ewers’ budding athletic career].”
Whatever happens in the playoff — whether it be a loss Friday or a national championship victory against the winner of Notre Dame–Penn State on Jan. 20 — Ewers’ career at Texas figures to be coming to a close.
Though Ewers still has one season of eligibility remaining, blue-chip quarterback prospect Arch Manning appears primed to finally take over in Austin next season.
Manning, the nephew of NFL quarterback greats Peyton and Eli Manning, who could become the No. 1 overall prospect for the 2026 NFL draft, has backed up Ewers for two seasons waiting for his opportunity. Sarkisian even momentarily benched Ewers in favor of Manning during Texas’ 30-15 loss to Georgia on Oct. 19.
Still, Ewers figures to have options.
ESPN football analyst Mel Kiper Jr. ranks him as the No. 6 quarterback prospect eligible for the upcoming draft. Rumors have also emerged recently that Ewers could put off the NFL for another year and transfer to a third school for millions more in NIL money.
Amid those distractions, Ewers has thrived in the playoff bouncing back from oblique and ankle injuries from earlier in the year to complete 69% of his passes with four touchdowns in Texas’ two victories.
In the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl quarterfinal, Ewers tossed 29- and 25-yard touchdown passes in the overtimes, lifting Texas to the 39-31 win over Arizona State.
“I’ve just been proud of him,” Sarkisian said, “because he’s found a source for him that has been a motivating factor, where he can play free and play loose and play confident.”
Ewers added that, whatever the future holds, even contemplating it now would be “selfish,” with a national title still in reach for him and the Longhorns.
“I owe my teammates the best version of me right now,” he said. “I can’t be looking forward or I’ll trip on the rock that’s sitting right in front of me. I’ve got to be locked in on what’s right here.”