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GRAPEVINE, Texas — It never fails.

Somebody will be angry. Maybe two somebodies. TCU? Clemson? Everyone outside the SEC East and Big Ten East?

When 13 people are sequestered around a table for a day and a half to sort out what college football fans have been arguing over for weeks, there’s bound to be some controversy, especially during a season in which there’s not a clear-cut No. 1 team — at least not yet. That’s hardly the only question facing this committee as it convenes for the first time this season to release its first of six weekly rankings Tuesday night (7 ET, ESPN).

Ohio State, Georgia and Tennessee will jockey for No. 1 as committee members weigh what they see on film with résumés. They will have to decide whether they should rank a one-loss team (Alabama? Oregon?) ahead of an undefeated team (TCU? Clemson?).

Who are these people with all that power?

This year’s committee comprises eight people who have collegiate playing experience, including some sitting athletic directors, two members of the College Football Hall of Fame (former Nebraska guard Will Shields and former coach Joe Taylor) and two former Division I head coaches (Taylor and Jim Grobe). There is one woman: former USA Today sportswriter Kelly Whiteside.

Selection committee members are rotated every three years, so what might have been important to last year’s group could change this season with four new faces in the room. They are directed through written protocol to consider strength of schedule, head-to-head results and outcomes against common opponents. Conference championships are the final piece of the puzzle, but the committee ranks 25 teams each week based only on what they’ve done to date.

So which teams have done the most to impress the committee so far? Here’s what to look for in the first ranking, what we could learn about the preferences of this group and how it likely will arrive at its final verdict.

Additionally, Adam Rittenberg looks at what will happen Tuesday night as opposed to what should happen, and Chris Low provides a history lesson on how the first CFP rankings each year have compared with the final rankings.


Seven key questions to watch for

1. What matters more, eye test or résumé? If schedule strength is the top priority, Tennessee could be No. 1 and just about everyone else will get dinged for it — even Georgia. Aside from Oregon, Georgia’s FBS opponents are a combined 22-26, with only South Carolina (5-3) above .500. (Counterpoint: But the Dawgs look so good!) Nobody has a better win than the Vols, who beat Alabama and are No. 1 in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which says the average top-25 team would have just an 8% chance of achieving the same 8-0 record against Tennessee’s schedule. Undefeated Clemson also could be rewarded for playing a strong schedule so far, as the Tigers have three wins against potential CFP top-25 teams (NC State, Syracuse and Wake Forest). But those wins all were by narrow margins.

The selection committee typically loves convincing wins, and nobody in the country has beaten teams as soundly as the Buckeyes, who lead the FBS with a points-per-game differential of plus-32. Based on that, the Buckeyes could have a case for No. 1. Ohio State’s best wins are against Notre Dame (5-3) and Penn State (6-2). Beyond that, Ohio State hasn’t beaten a Power 5 opponent with a winning record, and the Buckeyes’ other Big Ten opponents have a combined record of 15-17. Michigan’s best wins are against Maryland and Penn State. The Wolverines don’t have a Power 5 nonconference win, and the nonconference teams they beat — Colorado State, Hawai’i and UConn — are a combined 8-18.

2. How much respect does the committee have for the Big 12 and Pac-12? There are five Power 5 conferences, but the SEC and Big Ten could be the only two represented in the initial top four. That will eventually change because Georgia and Tennessee face each other Saturday, and Ohio State and Michigan play in the regular-season finale. Those results will open a door, but how far will the Big 12 and Pac-12 have to climb? Oregon has made a case to be the Pac-12’s highest-ranked team, but UCLA and USC also have one loss. If any of these teams are lower than No. 16, they could be in trouble because no team has ever been ranked lower than No. 16 and made it to the playoff. TCU is the Big 12’s lone undefeated team, but everyone else in the conference has at least two losses.

3. Will any one-loss teams be ranked ahead of undefeated teams? If undefeated Clemson and TCU are ranked behind one-loss Alabama and/or Oregon, they don’t need to panic — at least not yet. Winning a conference championship game can change a team’s position dramatically. But that would be an indication that neither team has much, if any, margin for error. Being a one-loss conference champion might not be good enough for them this season. Clemson travels to Notre Dame on Saturday for what could be a tricky game, and still faces rival South Carolina. TCU has to go on the road to face Baylor and Texas. If they are behind a one-loss team from the start, the pressure to stay undefeated will rise.

4. Where are the contenders’ opponents ranked? The selection committee wants to know how many wins a team has against top-25 opponents — the committee’s top 25. Forget the Associated Press Top 25, and what you think were wins against ranked opponents (sorry, TCU). Those determinations begin now. Is beating Maryland (6-2) a top-25 win for Michigan? Can three-loss Notre Dame sneak into the rankings and help Ohio State’s case? Is three-loss Kentucky still a top-25 win for Tennessee? Is Georgia’s win against Oregon its only victory over a ranked opponent? How impressive is Clemson’s résumé after Wake Forest and Syracuse both lost Saturday? Does Alabama have any wins against ranked opponents? Its best wins are against Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi State, all of which have three losses. And if none of the Tide’s opponents are ranked, scroll back up to No. 1 on this list and say a prayer.

5. Which two-loss teams still have a chance? Watch where LSU and Utah are ranked because both can finish as two-loss conference champions. Teams ranked outside the initial top 10 have reached the playoff only twice (2014 Ohio State, which was No. 16, and 2015 Oklahoma, which was No. 15) and no two-loss team has ever made the cut. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen, especially if LSU defeats Alabama on Saturday and Georgia or Tennessee in the SEC championship game. (What loss to Florida State?!) Utah lost its season opener to Florida but has only one conference loss and can still win the Pac-12.

6. How important is defense? If the selection committee is wowed by big plays on offense, TCU, Tennessee and Ohio State will be held in high regard. If it is searching for teams playing at an elite level on both sides of the ball, the pool shrinks considerably. Georgia and Michigan are among the few teams playing championship-caliber defense. The Dawgs are No. 2 in the FBS, allowing only 10.5 points per game, and Michigan is right behind them, allowing 11.5. The Vols played their most complete game of the season Saturday, shutting down Kentucky, but it was the first time this season their defense was the story, and TCU’s defense is tied for No. 73 in the country, allowing 27.3 points per game.

7. Which fan base will be angriest? Best guess, the Horned Frogs. TCU is in the midst of a special season under first-year coach Sonny Dykes, and the explosive offense is legitimate — its 12 touchdowns of at least 50 yards lead the FBS. TCU has a habit of playing from behind, though, in large part because the defense continues to allow a lot of first-half points (more than 20 in each of the past three games). TCU is undefeated, but that might not be enough for it to land a top-four spot.


What the committee will — and should — do

The weekly CFP rankings are designed for debate and disagreement. They show where the selection committee, based on the criteria it uses, thinks teams belong. But we’ve all got our opinions about where teams belong in the rankings. Before every release, I’ll examine where teams will be ranked and where they should be ranked. Think of this as an Oscars-style audit of the CFP’s top 25.

What the CFP selection committee will do: Rank Clemson ahead of TCU

What the CFP selection committee should do: Rank TCU ahead of Clemson

Both Clemson and TCU are résumé teams more than world-beaters. Clemson has three six-point wins and one other by 10. TCU has five wins by 10 points or fewer. Clemson has three wins over teams ranked in the AP poll at the time of the game, while TCU has four.

The season point differentials are nearly identical: 138 for Clemson, 136 for TCU.

Don’t be swayed by the brands and CFP history. These teams are incredibly close, but TCU’s offense is the only consistently dominant unit on either squad. Clemson has had some fluctuation on both sides of the ball. At times, Clemson’s defense looks like a group filled with future NFL players. But the Tigers had few answers for Wake Forest, and allowed 28 first downs and 460 yards to Florida State. Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has improved from last season but boasts only one 300-yard passing performance and was benched in a come-from-behind win over Syracuse.

TCU has scored 38 points or more in every game and averaged 7.6 yards per play, nearly 2 yards better than Clemson (5.8). The Frogs have eclipsed 400 yards in every game and 450 in all but one. While Uiagalelei’s starter status remains tenuous, TCU quarterback Max Duggan has gone from a second-stringer to begin the season to a Heisman Trophy contender, passing for 2,212 yards with 22 touchdowns and only two interceptions. TCU’s defense has been far from dominant, but first-year coordinator Joe Gillespie has been excellent with in-game adjustments, and opponents average just 3.8 yards per rush.

Let’s look at the résumés. Two of Clemson’s best three wins came against teams that were exposed Saturday (Wake Forest against Louisville, Syracuse against Notre Dame). TCU’s wins over the Oklahoma schools don’t look as strong as they once did, although Oklahoma State‘s overall profile shouldn’t be written off despite its no-show at Kansas State. Speaking of the Wildcats, TCU’s win over them might be the single best victory between the teams.

Again, it’s close. But if these teams are to be evaluated blindly, as they should be, TCU deserves the edge. — Adam Rittenberg


What the first ranking really means

Over the first eight years of the four-team format, 19 of the 32 teams (59%) that were in the top four in the initial rankings ended up in the playoff. That leaves room for teams outside Tuesday’s top four to land a spot in the semifinals on New Year’s Eve.

The lowest-ranked teams in the initial rankings to make it to the final four are Ohio State in 2014, when the Buckeyes started at No. 16, and Oklahoma in 2015, when the Sooners started at No. 15. Those are the only teams that were outside the top 10 of the first CFP rankings to make that year’s playoff.

On the other end of the scale, seven of the eight No. 1 teams in the first CFP rankings and 14 of the 16 teams initially ranked in the top two have reached the playoff. The exceptions are No. 1 Mississippi State in 2014 and No. 2 LSU in 2015.

Only once, in 2020, did all of the top four teams in the initial rankings make it to the playoff.

Here’s a year-by-year look at the top four in the first rankings, where those teams landed in the final rankings and the key elements that shaped each year’s race.

2021

No. 1 in first ranking: Georgia (third in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Michigan State (10th in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Oregon (14th in final ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 2 Michigan (seventh in first ranking), No. 4 Cincinnati (sixth)

Michigan State seemed to be in great shape after beating Michigan 37-33 on Oct. 30 to secure the No. 3 spot in the first rankings. But that didn’t last. The Spartans lost 40-29 the next week at Purdue and were routed 56-7 by Ohio State two weeks after that. And the Wolverines picked up steam only after their close loss in East Lansing. They reeled off five straight victories, including a 42-27 win over Ohio State (their first in the series in 10 years), and earned their first playoff appearance. Meanwhile, Cincinnati went unbeaten during the regular season to become the first Group of 5 team to make the playoff and benefited from Oregon losing twice to Utah in the final three weeks.


2020

No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Notre Dame (fourth in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Ohio State (third in final ranking)

The selection committee’s top four remained intact in the final rankings, although Texas A&M lost just one game (to Alabama) playing an all-SEC schedule during the shortened COVID-19 season and thought it deserved the No. 4 spot over a Notre Dame team that lost by 24 points to Clemson in the ACC championship game.


2019

No. 1 in first ranking: Ohio State (second in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: LSU (first in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Alabama (13th in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Penn State (10th in final ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 3 Clemson (fifth in first ranking), No. 4 Oklahoma (ninth)

Alabama transfer quarterback Jalen Hurts helped Oklahoma rebound from a 48-41 loss at Kansas State on Oct. 26 to win its next five games, including a 30-23 overtime win against Baylor in the Big 12 championship game, to climb up to the No. 4 spot. Georgia had been No. 4 the previous four weeks but slipped to No. 5 in the final rankings after losing 37-10 to LSU in the SEC championship game.


2018

No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: LSU (11th in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Notre Dame (third in final ranking)

Other playoff team: No. 4 Oklahoma (seventh in first ranking)

Similar to the 2019 season, Hurts played a big role in how the final 2018 playoff rankings shook out, only this time he was playing for Alabama. Hurts came off the bench for an injured Tua Tagovailoa to pass for a touchdown and run for another in rallying Alabama past Georgia in the fourth quarter for a 35-28 win in the SEC championship game. That loss cost the Dawgs a spot in the playoff, as they fell from No. 4 to No. 5 in the final rankings. It also cleared the way for Oklahoma to move from No. 5 to No. 4 after beating Texas in the Big 12 championship game for its seventh straight win.


2017

No. 1 in first ranking: Georgia (third in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Alabama (fourth in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Notre Dame (14th in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Clemson (first in final ranking)

Other playoff team: No. 2 Oklahoma (fifth in first ranking)

The team that didn’t make the playoff in 2017 that most shaped the field was Auburn. In a span of three weeks to end the regular season, Auburn beat No. 1 Georgia and No. 1 Alabama to move to No. 2 in the next-to-last rankings despite having two losses. But in a rematch with Georgia in the SEC championship game, Auburn lost 28-7 to the Dawgs, which paved the way for both Alabama and Georgia to move back into the top four and eventually play for the national championship. Alabama had been No. 5 and Georgia No. 6 the week before in the committee’s rankings. If Auburn had won the SEC title game, the Tigers would have been the only two-loss team ever to make the playoff field.


2016

No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Michigan (sixth in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Texas A&M (did not make final ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 3 Ohio State (sixth in first ranking), No. 4 Washington (fifth)

Penn State fans still grimace over this one. The Nittany Lions finished one spot out of the playoff, No. 5 in the final rankings. That’s despite beating Ohio State head-to-head and winning their last nine games, including a 38-31 win over Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game. Ohio State was the Big Ten team that made the playoff, though, as the Buckeyes had just one loss compared to the Nittany Lions’ two losses. Eventual national champion Clemson survived a 43-42 home loss to Pittsburgh on Nov. 12 to finish No. 2 in the final rankings. Pitt was unranked at the time of the game but was No. 23 in the committee’s final rankings.


2015

No. 1 in first ranking: Clemson (first in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: LSU (20th in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Ohio State (seventh in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Alabama (second in final ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 3 Michigan State (seventh in first ranking), No. 4 Oklahoma (15th)

One of the biggest kicks during the College Football Playoff era was courtesy of Michael Geiger, whose 41-yard field goal as time expired lifted Michigan State to a 17-14 win over Ohio State, snapping the Buckeyes’ 23-game winning streak. Ohio State was No. 3 entering the Nov. 21 game. The Spartans won their next two, including a 16-13 win over Iowa in the Big Ten championship game, to make the playoff. The Iowa-Michigan State game was essentially a play-in, as the Hawkeyes came in at No. 4 and the Spartans were No. 5 in the committee’s rankings. Oklahoma made its big move up from No. 15 after beating No. 6 Baylor on the road Nov. 14, then hammering No. 6 Oklahoma State 58-23 two weeks later to win the Big 12 championship.


2014

No. 1 in first ranking: Mississippi State (seventh in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Florida State (third in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Auburn (19th in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Ole Miss (ninth in final ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 1 Alabama (sixth in first ranking), No. 2 Oregon (fifth), No. 4 Ohio State (16th)

Three SEC teams in the initial playoff rankings? The rest of the college football world was fuming, but none of the three ended up in the final four. Eventual national champion Ohio State was the comeback story that season. The Buckeyes lost in Week 2 at home by two touchdowns to a Virginia Tech team that lost six games. Ohio State also lost a pair of quarterbacks to injury, Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett, but clawed back to secure the No. 4 spot in the final rankings, moving up from No. 5 after a 59-0 drubbing on Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game. Nobody was more upset that season than TCU. At the time, the Big 12 didn’t have a championship game and the Horned Frogs, who were No. 3 in the next-to-last rankings, closed the regular season by drubbing a 2-10 Iowa State team 55-3. That clinched the Frogs a share of the Big 12 championship, but it wasn’t enough to impress the committee as TCU somehow fell to No. 6 in the final rankings. — Chris Low

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MLB Power Rankings: Move over, Dodgers — there’s a new No. 1 on our list

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MLB Power Rankings: Move over, Dodgers -- there's a new No. 1 on our list

Three weeks into the new MLB season, there’s a new No. 1 on our list.

After being a unanimous choice atop our preseason rankings, the Los Angeles Dodgers have fallen from the top spot thanks to a recent rough patch (by their standards) combined with the strong performances of other National League powerhouses.

Was it the New York Mets, San Diego Padres or San Francisco Giants who replaced the defending champions atop our Week 3 Power Rankings? Which other teams off to surprising starts surged up our list? And who took the biggest April tumbles?

Our expert panel has combined to rank every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Buster Olney and Jesse Rogers to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.

Week 2 | Week 1 | Preseason rankings


Record: 15-4
Previous ranking: 3

San Diego finally lost at home this week, but the Padres’ advantage at Petco Park shouldn’t be overlooked. It’s become a more raucous environment than ever, a destination for fans who want to see a pitching staff that so far has compiled the lowest home ERA in the game and a lineup that ranks eighth in home OPS. Fernando Tatis Jr., in particular, must like the sight lines there this year; he has an OPS over 1.100 at Petco Park. San Diego has established a home environment all smaller market teams should strive for, and the Padres are winning plenty to keep fans coming back for more. — Rogers


Record: 14-6
Previous ranking: 1

How much fun is Tommy Edman? Through Tuesday’s games, he is tied for the major league lead with six home runs. Yes, even if it’s for a moment in time, Edman has one more long ball than his teammate Shohei Ohtani, all while playing solid defense, both at second base and center field. Edman led the Dodgers last week with an OPS over .900 while Ohtani was experiencing a mini slump, especially during a weekend series loss to the Cubs. Edman remained hot with a four-hit performance against Colorado on Tuesday. He has yet to go hitless in consecutive games this season. — Rogers


Record: 11-7
Previous ranking: 4

Juan Soto was right: Pete Alonso isn’t Aaron Judge, the best hitter in the world and the American League MVP in two of the past three campaigns. But Alonso has been doing his best impression. The first baseman is slashing .356/.466/.729 with five home runs, 20 RBIs and 11 walks to 10 strikeouts hitting behind Soto through Tuesday. Alonso’s 1.195 OPS and 242 OPS+ lead the National League. His hard-hit rate is in the 100th percentile. His average exit velocity and barrel rate sit in the 99th percentile. He already has posted more than half of his fWAR total from last season (1.3 to 2.1). Opponents have mostly opted to pitch around Soto and attack Alonso, but that changed in Minnesota this week when Soto clubbed home runs on consecutive days. It makes for a dangerous recipe. — Castillo


Record: 13-5
Previous ranking: 8

The Giants are rolling, thanks in part to outfielder Jung Hoo Lee. He seems to be coming into his own during his second season in San Francisco, highlighted by a two-homer performance in New York over the weekend. He leads the league in doubles (10) while slugging .647. One thing he is doing particularly well is not letting mistake pitches get by him; instead, he is doing max damage on those pitches, hence all the slug. He already has more than double the number of extra-base hits this season in less than half the at-bats he had all of last year. — Rogers


Record: 10-8
Previous ranking: 2

Alec Bohm notched four hits and a walk in the Phillies’ first two games this season. In 15 games since, the third baseman has gone 8-for-64 with one extra-base hit (a double) and zero walks, an icy stretch that dropped him to eighth in the batting order against the Giants this week. Bohm enjoyed a breakout first half last season, which resulted in his first All-Star nod. But he stumbled down the stretch, culminating in getting benched in the NLDS against the Mets and rampant trade rumors over the offseason. Bohm is batting .228 with four home runs and a .599 OPS in 65 games since the start of last season’s second half. Continued struggles could result in less playing time with Edmundo Sosa pushing for more starts. — Castillo


Record: 12-9
Previous ranking: 6

Losing pitcher Justin Steele to a season-ending elbow injury is a tough early blow. The Cubs do have some pitching depth, but no one as reliable as Steele is. Replacements for the role include veteran right-hander Colin Rea — he threw 3⅔ shutout innings against the Dodgers on Sunday — and young left-hander Jordan Wicks.

Highly touted pitching prospect Cade Horton could also find his way to the majors in the coming month and Chicago’s front office will hit the phone lines as well, calling on potential trade targets like Marlins star Sandy Alcantara. For now, though, expect the Cubs to look inward. — Rogers


Record: 11-7
Previous ranking: 5

The Yankees’ starting rotation, a projected strength entering spring training, has been a weakness after injuries to Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt gutted the group. The rotation’s 4.98 ERA through Tuesday was the third-worst mark in the majors. Max Fried has pitched as advertised, posting a 1.88 ERA in his four starts, but Will Warren’s 5.14 ERA ranks second. Schmidt’s return from a shoulder injury this week should bolster the rotation, but the Yankees need Carlos Rodon (5.48 ERA, 12 walks in 23 innings across four starts) to be better in the third year of his six-year, $162 million contract. — Castillo


Record: 11-7
Previous ranking: 10

Offense, offense, offense. Arizona is becoming known for a relentless attack. After leading the majors in run scoring last season, the Diamondbacks are off to a hot start again, just behind the Cubs as the second-most prolific team in the NL. Outfielder Corbin Carroll is back to the elite form he displayed when he was named Rookie of the Year in 2023. And he has carried over a hot finish to 2024, hitting a league-leading six home runs, including a grand slam in Miami on Tuesday. Carroll’s output has helped mitigate the loss of second baseman Ketel Marte, who should be back soon. There’s no reason not to believe the D-backs’ offense will continue to lead them all year. — Rogers


Record: 10-8
Previous ranking: 12

Kerry Carpenter clubbed 18 homers in 264 at-bats last season, and then hit a memorable three-run homer against Emmanuel Clase in the postseason. Opposing managers have been saving left-handed relievers to face him, but here is some bad news for the opposition — the left-handed slugger’s production is climbing against lefties, too. He’s got two homers off lefties this season, which is one more than he had all of 2024. — Olney


Record: 11-7
Previous ranking: 7

If all you looked at were the offensive numbers, the Rangers’ record would make zero sense. Three key guys — Marcus Semien, Joc Pederson and Jake Burger — all carry on-base percentages of .220 or lower, and the deep lineup of mashers really hasn’t come together yet. But the starting pitching has been really good, with Texas’ rotation ERA of 3.45 ranked seventh in the majors.

Bruce Bochy noted in a text the progression of the pitching — Jacob deGrom still refining his command, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle have thrown well, and the hope is that Jack Leiter — “really impressive,” Bochy wrote — is past his blister issue and will rejoin the rotation. — Olney


Record: 9-8
Previous ranking: 22

It’s too soon to know whether Emmanuel Clase’s brutal start is temporary, but the struggle is real right now. He has already allowed more earned runs (6) than he did for the entire 2024 regular season, and he surrendered 15 hits in eight innings. As he dominated hitters last year, Clase pitched with precision, but so far this year, his raw stuff seems flat and he’s just leaving a lot over the middle of the zone. Interestingly, his first-pitch strike rate is a career-high 75.7%, and it’s fair to wonder if he’s throwing too many strikes. — Olney


Record: 8-10
Previous ranking: 16

Junior Caminero homered in three straight games and compiled three hits in another over the past week. But lesser-known Jonathan Aranda has been the Rays’ best hitter — and the best hitter against right-handed pitching across the sport. The 26-year-old first baseman entered Wednesday leading the majors in batting average (.413), slugging (.761), and OPS (1.242) facing almost exclusively right-handers in 15 games. And the underlying numbers suggest the production isn’t a fluke: He ranks in the 96th percentile or better across the majors in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity among other categories. Aranda is 0-for-4 with two walks in seven plate appearances against left-handed pitchers so he’s likely to remain a platoon player for now, but he is capitalizing on his chances against righties after an injury-plagued 2024 season postponed his breakout. — Castillo


Record: 11-8
Previous ranking: 17

For a team with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Santander, the Blue Jays have not hit the ball over the wall very often. Toronto’s 11 home runs through Tuesday were tied for the second-lowest total in baseball. Toronto’s 12 home runs through Wednesday are tied for the third-lowest total in baseball. Guerrero didn’t hit his first homer until Toronto’s 19th game Wednesday when he crushed a hanging slider from Spencer Strider. Bo Bichette is still looking for his first long ball.

Andres Giménez, who hit nine home runs last season in Cleveland, leads the club with three. Santander, who clubbed 44 home runs for the Orioles in 2024, went 15 games before homering as a Blue Jay. And yet Toronto is over .500 — a great sign for a club looking to rebound from last season’s last-place finish. — Castillo


Record: 10-10
Previous ranking: 9

Boston’s lineup is as deep as any in baseball on paper, but it has been a boom-or-bust unit so far. On Tuesday, for example, Alex Bregman went 5-for-5 with a double and two home runs in a 7-4 win over the Rays. Before that, the Red Sox were held to four or fewer runs in eight straight games after an 18-run explosion against the Cardinals on April 6. Boston has scored one run in five games and been limited to three or fewer runs in 11 games through Tuesday. It’s why they emerged from Tuesday’s win one game below .500. — Castillo


Record: 9-9
Previous ranking: 19

Julio Rodriguez isn’t on top of any American League leaderboard, but within the context of league-wide pitching dominance, he’s actually doing more at the plate early this season than he has in the past. His wRC+ is 113 and his patience at the plate has been striking: He already has drawn 11 bases on balls, with a walk rate that doubles that of last season. “He’s been as aggressive as he’s always been, especially early in the count,” said Jerry Dipoto, the Mariners’ head of baseball operations. “But the biggest difference to me is that he gets himself dialed back in.” — Olney


Record: 8-11
Previous ranking: 14

The Kansas City offense has a collective slash line of .206/.274/.308, but at the very least, Bobby Witt Jr. is hitting. He’s 10-for-20 over his past six games, with three walks and four strikeouts. The lack of production from the outfielders continues to be an issue: The Royals’ outfielders have a wRC+ of 51, which seems impossibly low. They had two homers in 187 plate appearances. In a related note, star prospect Jac Caglianone has a .290/.356/.579 slash line in Double-A, with all of his starts at first base. — Olney


Record: 9-9
Previous ranking: 20

The Reds finally pushed past the .500 mark earlier this week behind the strength of a pitching staff that dominated during a four-game win streak, surrendering just 16 hits in 36 innings. They allowed just nine runs (2.25 ERA) over that time frame with a minuscule 0.81 WHIP. Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott shined in the rotation while the bullpen, led by righty Emilio Pagan, was stellar. — Rogers


Record: 5-13
Previous ranking: 15

Not much has gone right for the Braves so far in 2025, but Spencer Strider‘s season debut against the Blue Jays on Wednesday qualifies as a resounding positive. Besides giving up an RBI single and a solo home run to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the right-hander held the Blue Jays in check over five-plus innings in his first major league start in more than a year. Strider finished with 10 strikeouts, including a vintage three-pitch strikeout of Bo Bichette to begin the outing, and became the fastest starting pitcher to 500 career strikeouts. He walked two, limited Toronto to three hits and threw 97 pitches. Most importantly, he looked uninhibited. — Castillo


Record: 10-9
Previous ranking: 18

Are the Brewers this year’s Jekyll and Hyde? They’re all over the place, giving up seven or more runs in a third of their games while also compiling four shutouts, second most in baseball. Their latest shutout came thanks to recent pickup Quinn Priester. Milwaukee acquired him from the Red Sox a week into the season — usually marking an inventory/depth addition — but Priester could end up being the move of the year. He has given up just one earned run in two starts: a solid performance at hitter-friendly Coors Field last week followed by five shutout innings against the Tigers on Tuesday. Milwaukee is looking for some consistency on the mound. Could Priester provide it? — Rogers


Record: 7-10
Previous ranking: 11

Orioles general manager Mike Elias met with reporters Tuesday and maintained he believes his club is a playoff team. Baltimore then lost to the Guardians to fall to 6-10. The Orioles’ offense, rightly heralded for its premier young talent, has been inconsistent, but that should improve. The bigger problem is the starting pitching. The Orioles’ rotation ranks last in the majors in ERA. Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Albert Suarez, all projected starters during spring training, are on the injured list while Kyle Bradish isn’t expected to return from Tommy John surgery until the second half. Starting pitching was the concern entering the season after Baltimore failed to replace Corbin Burnes with another front-line starter. And it has so far played out as expected. — Castillo


Record: 8-10
Previous ranking: 13

Jim Crane’s instinct will be to hold his team together and push to make the playoffs for the ninth season in a row, and for the 10th time in the last 11 years. But without Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, the challenges are greater. Yordan Alvarez is off to a slow start, and the AL West is more competitive than it was a season ago.

If the Astros do drift from contention, there will be teams calling on Framber Valdez, who will be eligible for free agency in the fall. The Tucker trade seemed to signal a greater willingness to identify deals that will help to turn over the roster and build around the likes of Hunter Brown, Yainer Diaz and Cam Smith. — Olney


Record: 9-8
Previous ranking: 21

The Angels are the AL’s biggest surprise so far, and given their struggles of last season, you could understand why rival executives aren’t buying in yet. But there are ways in which the team is clearly distinguishing itself from the ’24 edition, and of course, that starts with the right fielder.

“Mike Trout is still Mike Trout and as long as we have his presence, we have a chance,” manager Ron Washington wrote in a text.

Washington also noted that the youngest Angels are benefitting from the experience of last year – Nolan Schanuel has an .856 OPS, Kyren Paris is impressing and Logan O’Hoppe has an early-season OPS near 1.000. — Olney


Record: 9-9
Previous ranking: 23

Even with Ivan Herrera missing time with a knee injury, Cardinals catchers still lead the league with six home runs and a lofty .329 batting average through Tuesday. Backups Pedro Pages and Yohel Pozo have held their own in Herrera’s absence. Pozo made headlines after coming up from Triple-A as he collected five hits — including two doubles and a home run — in his first three games. The longtime minor leaguer had not seen time in the majors since 2021 when he played in 21 games for the Texas Rangers. Over 1,000 minor league games later, he’s been an unexpected surprise in St. Louis. — Rogers


Record: 7-12
Previous ranking: 24

What is happening in Minnesota is the worst-case scenario — a slow start for a team that did very little to improve over the winter after failing to make the playoffs last season. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are both batting under .200, at a time when Royce Lewis is on the injured list, and Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack have allowed 26 earned runs in 29 1/3 innings. The weather is always an early-season X factor for the Twins, but hey, a lot of teams have had to play in brutal conditions in the first weeks, and only two AL teams have a worse run differential so far. — Olney


Record: 8-9
Previous ranking: 28

Who had the rebuilding Marlins playing .500 ball through 16 games this season? The team’s relative success probably won’t last much longer, but Miami has held its own through 10% of the regular season.

First baseman Matt Mervis is fueling the offense with five home runs and a 1.009 OPS through Tuesday. Shortstop Xavier Edwards, coming off an impressive 70-game sample last season, is batting over .300 again. Right-hander Max Meyer was impressive in his first three starts, holding opponents to four earned runs across 18 innings.

Chances are the Marlins will sink back down to the basement of the loaded NL East, but this start constitutes a step in the right direction. — Castillo


Record: 8-10
Previous ranking: 25

The early returns on the ballpark in Sacramento are that it’s like Coors Field California. The A’s have the worst home-field ERA, at 5.89, and the 1.56 home runs allowed per game is the fourth-worst ratio in the big leagues. Or maybe those numbers are rooted in a small-sample size of rough pitching performances. — Olney


Record: 7-11
Previous ranking: 26

How bad has the Nationals’ bullpen been this season? Bad enough for manager Dave Martinez to summon his relievers to his office for a meeting before Tuesday’s game against the Pirates. Two Nationals relievers then combined to toss two scoreless innings in a 3-0 win, which qualifies as significant progress for a group that ranks last in the majors in ERA (7.21) and WHIP (1.89). — Castillo


Record: 7-12
Previous ranking: 27

Stop us if you’re heard this one before: The Pirates are having trouble scoring runs. It’s a rinse-and-repeat scenario for the Buccos, who hit just .185 as a team last week (which, incredibly, was not the lowest batting average in MLB). That was low enough to help produce a 2-5 record for Pittsburgh, which sits in last place in the NL Central. The Pirates’ overall team OPS ranks last in the NL and 29th in baseball, and that puts a tremendous strain on their young pitching staff. — Rogers


Record: 4-13
Previous ranking: 30

Andrew Vaughn has generated some ugly numbers so far this season, with a .131 batting average and two home runs in his first 61 at-bats. But the White Sox feel like he’s actually swung the bat better than those numbers indicate — Vaughn is hitting just .132 on balls in play, and he is 54th among 132 hitters in adjusted exit velocity. Whether Vaughn’s early production has been nicked by bad weather, or bad luck, the White Sox anticipate better days ahead for the first baseman. — Olney


Record: 3-15
Previous ranking: 29

Let’s try to find one positive thing about the Rockies, who went 1-7 over the course of the week, from last Tuesday to this one. Here it is: In their lone win — a 7-2 victory over Milwaukee last Thursday — outfielder Brenton Doyle went 4-for-5 with five runs driven in while scoring twice. Doyle, just 26, has an OPS over .900 (through Tuesday) that includes three home runs and a batting average over .300. See? It can be done. It just takes some looking to find the good in Colorado. A younger group of players might provide more positives this summer, but it won’t show up in the standings any time soon. — Rogers

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Ex-South Alabama QB Lopez commits to UNC

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Ex-South Alabama QB Lopez commits to UNC

Former South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez, one of the top passers in the spring transfer portal, has committed to North Carolina, he announced on social media Thursday.

The No. 6 available transfer in ESPN’s spring portal rankings, Lopez lands as an immediate front-runner to claim the Tar Heels’ starting quarterback job under first-year coach Bill Belichick. Per sources, Lopez will join North Carolina on a two-year, $4 million contract with three seasons of remaining eligibility after a breakout redshirt freshman season in 2024.

Lopez entered the transfer portal earlier this week two days after completing spring camp with South Alabama. His commitment formally closes the Tar Heels’ lengthy search for a quarterback since Belichick took over the program in December.

Sources said that Lopez initially considered an exit from South Alabama during the winter transfer portal window before opting to remain with the program. He stayed with the Jaguars through spring practices and took part in the program’s spring showcase Saturday, but transfer portal interest from major Power 4 programs persisted in the lead-up to the spring window.

Sources told ESPN that Georgia and LSU held discussions with Lopez this spring, each with an eye on giving him a chance to compete for a starting spot in 2026. According to sources, North Carolina initiated contact with Lopez’s camp in March and continued talks through Thursday, when Lopez finalized his deal with general manager Michael Lombardi and the Tar Heels.

North Carolina entered Belichick’s first spring camp with three quarterbacks on the roster — Max Johnson, Ryan Browne and incoming freshman Bryce Baker.

Browne, a former Purdue transfer, entered the portal earlier this week. Baker, ESPN’s No. 200 recruit in the 2025 cycle, remains with the Tar Heels after affirming his commitment following coach Mack Brown’s departure. Johnson, a 23-game starter, returns in 2025 after suffering a season-ending leg injury in Week 1 last fall.

A 6-foot-2, 220-pound dual-threat, Lopez emerged as one of the most productive Group of 5 quarterbacks in the nation last fall when he led South Alabama to a 7-6 finish in coach Major Applewhite’s first season. Lopez completed 66% of his passes for 2,559 yards and 18 touchdowns in 11 starts, adding another 465 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the ground.

Per TruMedia, Lopez’s 8.20 yards per passing attempt in 2024 ranked 26th among quarterbacks nationally. He also completed 38 passes of 20-plus yards last fall, more than 27 returning passers across the country in 2025.

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‘I have a superpower now’: Jack Bech leans on late brother’s memory in pursuit of NFL dreams

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'I have a superpower now': Jack Bech leans on late brother's memory in pursuit of NFL dreams

DAVE LeBLANC REMEMBERS when he saw Jack Bech practice for the first time at a middle school football camp. A strength and offensive line coach at St. Thomas More in Lafayette, Louisiana, since 1995, he has seen his share of talented players come through south Louisiana. But Bech stood out.

“I have witnesses,” LeBlanc said. “When he was running, doing some agility blocks and I was watching him perform, I said, ‘This is going to be the next kid that plays on Sundays.’ I made that call in seventh grade before he had hair under his arms.”

The coaches already had a frame of reference, albeit a smaller one. They had coached Tiger Bech, Jack’s older brother, an aggressive, fiery, but diminutive all-purpose talent who went on to star at Princeton.

“Before Jack, Tiger was the best receiver we’ve ever had,” said Lance Strother, STM’s wide receivers coach. “Then Jack came along with the same skill set, but he also brought the metrics with him, the size and the strength.”

Both fearless. Neither lacked a drop of confidence. They were just five years apart in age and completely different in build.

“Tiger was 5-9 on a tall day,” their dad Martin said, “while Jack was always a man amongst boys. He always was huge.”

All these years later, Jack Bech is standing taller than ever. Now 6-foot-2, 215 pounds, he’s considered a solid Day 2 pick in next week’s NFL draft, all while carrying the hopes of his brother and his family after Tiger, his best friend, was killed on Jan. 1 in the terrorist attack on Bourbon Street in New Orleans.

“Whatever team gets me, it’s going to be a two-for-one special. Not only do you get Jack Bech, you get Tiger Bech too,” Jack said. “I have a superpower now. I have another presence about me that just can’t lose.”


JACK IDOLIZED TIGER, following him everywhere from the time he could walk. He watched his brother become a football star, and wanted to be just like him. But Tiger would always tell Jack he got the genetic gifts that he was lacking, calling his little brother “the prototype.”

Two of their uncles, Brett and Blain Bech, played football at LSU, and their aunt, Brenna Bech, was on the Tigers’ first soccer team. Naturally, they were competitive, but Tiger, who became an All-Ivy League return specialist in college, saw bigger things for Jack.

Baton Rouge was just 45 minutes away, and they grew up going to LSU games at Death Valley, watching Tyrann Mathieu, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry and Leonard Fournette.

And Jack would be next.

“I had two dreams: One was to play in Tiger Stadium, and one was to play in the NFL,” Jack said.

In late October 2020, shortly before signing day, Jack, who had committed to Vanderbilt, finally got an offer from LSU. The family was ecstatic. One of his dreams was coming true.

And he was a star out of the gate. Jack Bech started seven games as a freshman, catching 43 passes for 489 yards and three touchdowns, and becoming a fan favorite. Playing as a hybrid tight end/slot receiver, he was named to two different freshman All-America teams in 2021 alongside players such as Xavier Worthy and Brock Bowers. But once Ed Orgeron was fired and Brian Kelly arrived with a new coaching staff, he had to start over.

He struggled with some nagging injuries but was cleared to play, although he ultimately got stuck in a logjam in a loaded receivers room with Malik Nabers, Kayshon Boutte, Kyren Lacy and Brian Thomas Jr. He played in 12 games, and caught just 16 passes for 200 yards and a touchdown.

“When the coaching change happened at LSU, those weren’t the guys that recruited him and everybody around him didn’t think he was getting a fair shake,” LeBlanc said. “He went from being a freshman All-American, then getting on the field maybe 25% of the snaps. I think the transfer portal is bad for football in the long run. But if anybody should have transferred, it was Jack.”

He picked TCU as his destination, but Sonny Dykes, who had coached at Louisiana Tech and knows the psychic power LSU has over the state’s residents, knew it was a gut-wrenching decision.

“There’s nobody that loves the state of Louisiana more than his family,” Dykes said. “There was a lineage and I’m sure it was very difficult for him to leave. But there’s a quiet confidence about that whole family and it took a lot of confidence to bet on yourself. That’s what makes him different and unique.”

In Fort Worth, Jack suffered a high ankle sprain and had surgery as the Horned Frogs, coming off a 13-2 season in 2022, slipped to 5-7. But amid the struggles, Dykes sold him on a long-range plan, telling him they wanted him to get him fully healthy and back to who he was as a freshman, even if it was frustrating for Jack.

“Well, let’s give a lot of credit to Sonny Dykes for that,” Strother said. “Imagine having a world-class race car tuned up and ready to go and you’re pretty sure there’s not another car that can beat it anywhere, but you keep it in the garage. It was a matter of Jack getting healthy and then being unleashed with opportunity.”

Dykes said by midway through his junior year, Jack had so many small little bumps and bruises that he “had one of everything.” He could see how badly Jack wanted to play, which he said might have been part of the problem. He couldn’t ease off the gas.

“He’s a guy that’s trained his body really, really hard, has never taken a break and tried to squeeze every single ounce of ability out of his body,” Dykes said. “And it was pretty banged up because of it.”

He caught just five passes from October on, as they kept him on a tight leash. He finished his junior year in 2023 with appearances in eight games, catching 12 passes for 146 yards. But Dykes would tell anyone who would listen that he was going to be a star the next season. And by the spring, it was evident.

“We were going to play him inside, but we had a logjam of players inside, and he just kept performing at such a high level that we wanted to play him every down. So we moved him outside, and the thing about him is he knew all the positions. It’s easier to move from outside to inside because you’ve got to deal with press corners and releases. There’s usually a transition. With Jack, there was no transition.”

He responded with one of the greatest seasons by a Horned Frogs receiver, catching 62 passes for 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns in 2024, the fourth-highest single-season total in TCU history, trailing only Josh Doctson, Quentin Johnston and Jalen Reagor, who were all first-round picks.

And best of all, Tiger was there to watch every game, flying down from New York, where he had begun a career as a stockbroker.

“One of the greatest things about this season was it gave us, our whole family a focus,” Martin Bech said. “My daughter lives in Philadelphia, another one lives in Nashville. It gave us all a gathering point. Tiger just loved being there, being in Fort Worth and being with Jack. There’s a famous text in the family now about how Tiger was just so enamored by Jack’s success.”

“It’s happening,” Tiger wrote.


AT 3:15 A.M. on Jan. 1, Tiger and his roommate Ryan Quigley, whom he worked with in New York, were on Bourbon Street when Shamsud-Din Jabbar of Houston accelerated his pickup truck into the crowd, then got into a shootout with police before he was fatally wounded. He killed 14 people, including Tiger, and injured at least 57 others, including Quigley.

Tiger was taken to the hospital and kept on life support until his family could arrive. A TCU booster flew Jack to New Orleans on his plane immediately, but he didn’t make it in time. The moment he got the news Tiger was gone, he told himself he was going to get Tiger a Hall of Fame jacket.

Jack was out front immediately, doing television interviews and hoping to talk about his brother whenever he was needed. He and the family were unimaginably unshakeable.

“Our pain and our suffering is no different from the 13 other families that lost their loved ones in that horror,” Martin said. “All these kids that were in the ICU for weeks on end and Tiger’s roommate who had his leg shattered and his face gashed for six inches, everyone is struggling the same. We’re just blessed that we are given the platform to share Tiger’s story.”

Jack said his foundation is his faith, that he believes there was a reason this year played out the way it did. Tiger and the family were gathered for every game. He had the best season of his life. They were all together in New Orleans for Christmas.

Martin said he started hearing stories after Tiger had died about all the people he had visited back home in Louisiana over the holidays who he hadn’t seen in years. He thinks that was all by design too. He said Tiger knew Jack was going to be near Fort Worth rigorously training for the draft, so he wanted to maximize their time together.

“When we’re home together, we’re going to spend every minute together,” Tiger told Jack. “If we have to go Christmas shopping, we’re going to go together. If we have to go meet a friend, we’re going to meet the friend together. If we’re going to go to our aunt’s house for dinner, we’re going together.”

They were inseparable the entire holiday season, even down to the pets, Martin said.

“We have pictures of him sleeping on the sofa with Jack’s dog,” he said of Tiger. “Is it any more special than a lot of brothers’ relationships? Maybe not, but it was pretty damn special.”

Jack says this is all destiny. And it has allowed him to find a new gear.

Every coach who knows Jack has seen a different Jack since that day. And they all have a similar vantage point on what they see.

“He was already on a great trajectory,” Dykes said. “This was kind of the rocket fuel.”

“Some people could have spun off the rails after you lose your best friend, but it did the total opposite with Jack,” LeBlanc said. “Jack was going to be in the league with or without Tiger’s passing, but Tiger’s passing kind of propelled him.”

“Tiger, who was an absolutely phenomenal football player himself, knew and understood long before the rest of the football world understood and believed Jack was bound for greatness at the highest level,” Strother said. “Now he’s bound, determined and on fire to bring to the fullest potential his talent and ability in honor of Tiger and in honor of his faith.”

Everything culminated in a magical Senior Bowl performance.

Jim Nagy, the game’s executive director, got Jack the No. 7 jersey, Tiger’s number. Every player on the field wore a tiger-striped decal with 7 on it. Jack had an impressive performance, earning MVP honors with six catches for 68 yards.

Dykes said he was watching with his 8-year-old son Daniel, who said, “Dad, Jack’s going to score a touchdown on the last play of the game.”

With 7 seconds left, Memphis QB Seth Henigan rolled right, and found Jack for the game-winner. Jack calls these moments “Tiger Winks.”

“I knew I was about to catch that ball and score that touchdown,” he said. “My brother’s name was written in the clouds above us. Just so many signs. I mean, if you don’t believe God is real, I don’t know how much more you need.”

He has lived a lifetime this offseason. Now he waits to see where he goes. But wherever it is, Tiger will be with him. He’s got “7 to Heaven” tattooed on his chest, along with a set of Roman numerals representing Tiger’s birth and death dates.

“They’re only on the left side of my body, because he was my other half,” Jack said.

Strother said it will be tough knowing Tiger won’t be there for Jack’s draft party.

“There will be a profound Tiger spirit all throughout that draft party room because it was a day and a moment that Jack and Tiger together really looked forward to,” he said.

And whoever turns that card in with Jack’s number on it will get both of them.

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