The top four teams in the country — Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan and TCU — all won on Saturday to remain undefeated, so there shouldn’t be much, if any, change Tuesday night when the College Football Playoff selection committee unveils its third of six rankings at 9 p.m. ET.
No. 5 Tennessee also should hold its spot following its lopsided win over Missouri, giving the Volunteers an opportunity to finish in the top four on Selection Day without winning their league or division.
It gets more interesting after that, but not unpredictable. No. 7 LSU should remain the committee’s top two-loss team, and USC will replace Oregon as the Pac-12’s top playoff contender after the Ducks and UCLA both lost. With Oregon dropping, LSU should move up one spot to No. 6, followed by a promotion for USC to No. 7.
While things might seem simple at the top, the impact on Selection Day gets a bit more complicated. Here’s your guide to interpreting what the committee is thinking behind closed doors, along with Adam Rittenberg’s case for Clemson being ranked higher than USC and the top-four picks of ESPN’s college football reporters:
1. How much margin for error does TCU really have? The Horned Frogs clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game on Saturday night, and if they finish as undefeated conference champions, TCU will be in the playoff. If the selection committee bumps TCU ahead of Michigan on Tuesday night, it could indicate the Frogs have a little more leeway, but the strength of the entire conference is a question. Except for TCU, every team in the Big 12 has at least three losses, guaranteeing the Frogs will face a lower-ranked opponent in the conference title game. (The winner of Ohio State-Michigan will face a similar scenario in the Big Ten, but wins in that rivalry game and over Penn State will trump anything TCU has on its résumé). Pay attention to where TCU’s opponents are ranked, starting with Texas, which now has four losses. If the Frogs stumble at Baylor (which they shouldn’t, given how the Bears have spiraled), their schedule could cost them.
2. Is LSU the only two-loss team with a chance?Alabama avoided disaster with its win on Saturday at Ole Miss, but by beating the Rebels, the Crimson Tide ensured LSU’s spot in the SEC championship game as winner of the West Division. Alabama should remain behind LSU in the rankings because of the head-to-head result, but it also could seem deceivingly close at No. 8. There will be movement ahead of the 8-2 Tide going forward, as Ohio State or Michigan will lose in the regular-season finale, and it’s possible TCU loses and/or Georgia knocks LSU out of the conversation. The CFP rankings don’t follow the Associated Press poll mentality; it’s not as simple as teams lose and others move up. Without a conference or division title, Alabama would face much higher scrutiny in the selection committee meeting room. The group has written protocol it must adhere to, and Alabama would come up short in three critical areas: championships won, strength of schedule and head-to-head results.
3. How dire is the Pac-12’s situation? With USC still a top-10 team, the conference is still in the mix, but keep an eye on how far Oregon and UCLA fall — and where two-loss Utah fits in. The good news for the league is that Washington should move up, giving the conference five ranked teams, which is impressive. Without divisions, the Pac-12 also is in better shape than the Big Ten and Big 12 in terms of its title game matchup (at least for now), as both of those leagues will have a team with at least three losses playing for its championship. If USC runs the table and finishes as a one-loss conference champion, it most likely will have defeated three straight ranked opponents along the way: UCLA, Notre Dame and its title game opponent. That could be the boost the Trojans need to get in, perhaps ahead of Tennessee. It also could give them the edge over TCU as a one-loss Big 12 champion. The one message that should be clear: It’s USC or bust in the Pac-12.
4. Does one-loss North Carolina have a shot? Tar Heels fans want to know why their team isn’t generating serious discussion. It’s a fair question with two straightforward answers: a lack of statement wins and defense. North Carolina’s regular-season schedule doesn’t feature one ranked opponent or one Power 5 nonconference win. An upset of Clemson in the ACC title game isn’t going to compensate for that, especially with how poorly the Heels’ defense has played, allowing Appalachian State 61 points and at least 24 points in every win this season, except against Virginia Tech (41-10). UNC is a gutsy team that is undefeated in conference play, but when the conference is struggling, it’s more difficult to make the case.
What the committee will — and should — do
I had far less beef with the second CFP rankings than the initial version, but it wouldn’t be a Tuesday in November without something to complain about. The top six spots in Tuesday night’s rankings shouldn’t generate too many surprises, but it could get interesting at No. 7 and lower, especially with a new Pac-12 front-runner and the teams lurking just behind.
What the CFP selection committee will do: Rank USC ahead of Clemson
What the CFP selection committee should do: Rank Clemson ahead of USC
When nine of the top 10 teams in the rankings win, the temptation is to not mess with the order. Oregon undoubtedly will tumble after its home loss to a good but not elite Washington team. USC is now the only one-loss team left in the Pac-12. The Trojans did nothing to necessarily lose their position, overcoming a sluggish first quarter Friday night to thump Colorado 55-17. USC eclipsed 40 points for the eighth time this season, tied with Oregon for the most in FBS.
But USC, to no fault of its own, beat another bad team, which the Trojans have spent most of the season doing. As the great Jon Wilner pointed out, USC’s seven Pac-12 wins have come against teams with a combined league record of 14-36. Only two of those teams, Oregon State and Washington State, have winning records. Oregon State should reenter the committee’s rankings Tuesday night, but USC’s best win was a 17-14 squeaker over the Beavers despite a 4-0 edge in takeaways.
Right now, the Trojans are buoyed more by a great loss — they fell 43-42 at Utah after the Utes scored a touchdown and a two-point conversion in the final minute — than anything else in their profile. The Pac-12 is a much-improved conference, but USC has played only one of the league’s truly strong teams, Utah, and lost. The Trojans finally get profile-boosting opportunities this week against UCLA and next week versus Notre Dame.
But at this moment, Clemson has the stronger overall résumé. The Tigers are undefeated in ACC play with five victories against teams with winning records. Clemson has three wins against teams that were ranked in the AP poll when it faced them, and it just beat surging Louisville by 15 on Saturday. There’s no doubt Clemson has an uglier loss than USC, as the Tigers never challenged Notre Dame in a 35-14 road setback, leading coach Dabo Swinney to admit, “This was an ass-kicking, period.” But the Tigers have more solid wins, including an Oct. 15 triumph at Florida State that looks better each week.
Both teams have had some narrow victories. Clemson has won three games by six points or fewer, but all were against teams either ranked at the time or ranked now. USC has three wins by eight points or fewer but only one against a currently ranked team. The Trojans struggled to pull away from Arizona and Cal, allowing a total of 72 points and 1,012 yards in those wins.
There’s not a massive gap between these teams, but CFP rankings are snapshots of the current landscape. USC is being rewarded more for a loss and dominating bad teams, while Clemson has compiled a bigger and better group of wins. USC has the closing stretch to cement itself above Clemson, but that time isn’t now. — Adam Rittenberg
ESPN reporters’ top-four picks
Andrea Adelson: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Blake Baumgartner: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Kyle Bonagura: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Ohio State 4. TCU Bill Connelly: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Heather Dinich: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan David Hale: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan Chris Low: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Harry Lyles Jr.: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Ryan McGee: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Tennessee Adam Rittenberg: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Ohio State 4. TCU Alex Scarborough: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan Mark Schlabach: 1. Georgia 2. Michigan 3. Ohio State 4. TCU Paolo Uggetti: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan Tom VanHaaren: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Michigan 4. TCU Dave Wilson: 1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. TCU 4. Michigan
RALEIGH, N.C. — Sam Bennett scored one of his two goals in Florida’s three-goal first period, Sergei Bobrovsky made 17 saves and the Panthers beat the Carolina Hurricanes 5-0 on Thursday night to take a 2-0 lead in the Eastern Conference final.
Bennett scored a second time by skating in to clean up an attempt at the right post in the final minute of the second period to make it 4-0, ending a long shift in Carolina’s end prolonged by Hurricanes defenseman Brent Burns being stuck on the ice after breaking his stick. Aleksander Barkov added a goal midway through the third as punctuation.
Bobrovsky had his third shutout of the playoffs this year and the sixth of his career, with Florida’s defense smothering a Hurricanes team that typically peppers the net with shots but found little daylight.
Florida had already ripped home-ice advantage away Tuesday night with a 5-2 win, the opener in a rematch of the 2023 conference final swept by the Panthers with four one-goal wins. Florida only tightened its grip on the series with this one and now heads back south to host Game 3 on Saturday night.
On the other bench, the Hurricanes found themselves on the receiving end of a crushing loss by a jarringly lopsided margin. And it marked their 14th straight loss in a conference final, going back to sweeps in 2009, 2019 and the ’23 tilt with Florida.
The Hurricanes managed just three first-period shots and just seven through two periods, prompting a typically rowdy home crowd to vent its frustrations with two chants of “Shoot the puck! Shoot the puck!” Carolina had a brief boost when Sebastian Aho scored on a turnover in the first minute of the second period to cut the deficit to 3-1.
But Florida successfully challenged that the play was offsides. It turned out Burns’ stick-check on Tkachuk near the blue line forced the puck back into the zone and right to Aho in the slot for the finish.
By the third period, Carolina had pulled veteran Frederik Andersen from net and went with backup Pyotr Kochetkov for the final period.
It wasn’t all great news for Florida. Veteran forward Sam Reinhart was knocked from the game in the first period after taking a hit from Aho in the left leg, causing Reinhart’s knee to bend awkwardly.
HERNING, Denmark — Nick Olesen scored with 49 seconds left as Denmark stunned Canada 2-1 at the ice hockey world championship Thursday to advance to the semifinals.
“I have no words, it’s unbelievable,” Olesen said after Denmark reached the last four for the first time. “The fans here were cheering for us the whole game and they helped us get the win. It’s crazy.”
Denmark, in the sold-out arena in Herning, had tied it with 2:17 remaining when Nikolaj Ehlers scored through traffic in only his second game at the tournament following his Winnipeg Jets being eliminated from the NHL playoffs.
The Danes had pulled goaltender Frederik Dichow for the extra attacker before Ehlers struck.
Canada outshot Denmark 30-11 in the first two periods but couldn’t solve Dichow, who made 39 saves in all, until 5:17 into the third when captain Sidney Crosby fed Travis Sanheim to score into the roof of the net. Canada was outshot 22-10 in the final period, though.
Denmark has only two NHL players at the worlds, while Canada has only two who don’t play at the NHL level.
“I’m disappointed,” Crosby said. “We got better as the tournament went on. I don’t think tonight was necessarily our best, but we still found a way to give ourselves a lead … but it turned pretty quick.”
Crosby returned to the worlds for the first time since 2015, when he captained Canada to gold. He was expected to do it again with teammates like Nathan MacKinnon.
Canada is the most successful nation at the tournament with 28 titles but has finished empty-handed in the past two editions after it was beaten by Sweden in the bronze medal game last year.
It was only the second win for Denmark over Canada at the worlds.
The semifinals are set for Saturday: Denmark will play Switzerland; and the United States will face Sweden.
Earlier on Thursday, the U.S. advanced by beating Finland 5-2 backed by Conor Garland‘s two power-play goals
Trailing 2-1 in the middle period, the Americans needed 71 seconds to turn things around when defenseman Zeev Buium put home a rebound at 23:53 before Garland’s second goal restored the U.S. lead.
“I really liked how we stayed with it and built as the game wore on,” U.S. head coach Ryan Warsofsky said. “We got off to a bit of a slow start but really found our game as time wore on. I give our guys a lot of credit as they beat an excellent hockey team today.”
Garland had given the U.S. a 1-0 lead 4:50 into the game when he received a cross-ice pass from Logan Cooley to beat goalie Juuse Saros from the right circle.
Finland tied it at 1-1 on Eeli Tolvanen‘s power-play goal. Patrik Puistola scored from the slot on another power play 7:46 into the second period for Finland to take a 2-1 lead.
The Americans added two more goals in the third. Shane Pinto scored the fourth 5:52 into the final period and captain Clayton Keller finished the scoring into an empty net.
The U.S. team hasn’t won a medal since taking bronze in 2021. The Finns have been waiting for a medal since they won gold in 2022.
Sweden delighted the home crowd in the Avicii Arena in Stockholm by eliminating defending champion Czechia with a 5-2 victory.
Kristen Shilton is a national NHL reporter for ESPN.
After 11 seasons, Brendan Shanahan will not have his contract renewed as president and alternate governor of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The organization announced its decision in a statement Thursday, ending months of speculation surrounding Shanahan’s future with the franchise.
The 56-year-old Shanahan, a Hall of Famer as a player, had held the position since April 2014.
“Over the past 11 seasons, Brendan Shanahan has made countless contributions to the Toronto Maple Leafs on the ice, off the ice and in the community,” Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment president/CEO Keith Pelley said in a statement. “… Our responsibility and driving motivation, however, is to add a new chapter to the Maple Leafs’ championship history, and it was determined that a new voice was required to take the team to the next level in the years ahead.”
Pelley is scheduled to meet with the media on Friday.
In his own public statement, Shanahan said he was informed during a meeting Thursday of MLSE’s choice not to bring him back. He thanked the board for its support during his tenure in Toronto and shared his admiration for the Leafs’ remaining leadership group that he helped put in place, including general manager Brad Treliving and head coach Craig Berube.
“I greatly enjoyed working with Brad and Craig, and I firmly believe they are excellent in their roles and have done a great job in their time with the team,” Shanahan said. “Also, I want to thank the players. They are committed and passionate about delivering a championship to this city and will do everything within their power to accomplish that goal. I wish them all the very best.”
The Maple Leafs, prior to Thursday’s announcement, had already granted permission to the New York Islanders to speak with Shanahan about a position with their team.
Shanahan, a native of the Toronto area, joined the Leafs as they prepared to enter a rebuilding phase, installing what publicly became known as the “Shanaplan.” He revamped the front office immediately, hiring former GM Lou Lamoriello and head coach Mike Babcock in 2015. Toronto posted a last-place finish in 2015-16 and won the NHL’s draft lottery, using the first overall pick in 2016 to select Auston Matthews.
The center jumpstarted Toronto’s retooling with the Leafs’ Core Four — along with Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares. In Shanahan’s tenure, the Leafs enjoyed regular-season success that failed to transition into playoff wins, despite multiple changes to staff along the way.
Despite an impressive roster of talent, Toronto has bowed out of the first round in six of its last eight full-season playoff series.
Toronto, which recorded seven straight losses in winner-take-all games under Shanahan, has not advanced to the third round since 2002, and its Stanley Cup drought now sits at 58 years.
Shanahan won the Stanley Cup three times with the Red Wings during his 21-year playing career from 1987-2009. He spent time with New Jersey, St. Louis, Hartford, Detroit and the New York Rangers.
A month after hanging up his skates, Shanahan went to work in the league office as VP of hockey and business development. There, he worked with Islanders co-owner John Collins and was later promoted to senior vice president and took over the NHL’s disciplinary responsibilities.