Connect with us

Published

3 years ago

on

9:15 AM ET

The course of an 82-game NHL regular season never runs completely smooth. Some teams have felt that more than others.

October’s optimism can quickly bleed into a nervy November. Injuries pile up along with losses. Identities crack before being fully formed. Confidence is at a premium. And we’ve barely hit the quarter mark of the season.

It’s thought that a team can’t secure its playoff spot in just a few weeks, but it can fall too far out of the race to catch up. Certain front-runners (Boston, Vegas, New Jersey, among them) have to feel secure in their early positioning. A few on the other side may have already been counted out.

Most teams fall somewhere in the middle, and a few have been walloped especially hard by adversity. We’re breaking down some of those in-betweeners, from the problems they’ve faced to potential solutions that could help turn the page on a happier post-Thanksgiving chapter to this season.

After all, there’s still a long way to go.

Jump to:
Sabres | Senators | Capitals
Flames | Canucks

Buffalo’s season began with promise. The Sabres were 7-3-0 on Nov. 2, boasting the NHL’s fifth-best record and sitting second in the Atlantic Division. They’ve been the NHL’s worst team ever since. Back-to-back losses at Carolina and Tampa Bay started a skid from which Buffalo has yet to recover — an eight-game losing streak (through which the Sabres have been outscored 38-19) with seemingly no end in sight.

Problems: Everyone from coach Don Granato to top defenseman Rasmus Dahlin has posited theories about the Sabres’ rapid decline. An increasingly impatient Granato — who chalked up the skid early on to a necessary learning experience — has since cited a lack of urgency and identity within the group. Dahlin thinks Buffalo is short on swagger. Killer instinct? They don’t have it. Or at least, not enough to pull out of this funk.

Those are the intangible issues. Buffalo’s performance on the ice has been laborious.

In the Sabres’ past eight games, only Jeff Skinner has scored more than one five-on-five goal. Tage Thompson has been an excellent producer on the power play, without the even-strength offense to match. Buffalo is averaging the most goals against per game since Nov. 3 (4.75) and their penalty kill is tied for worst in the league since then.

Eric Comrie‘s play in net deteriorated (0-4-0, .865 save percentage and 4.28 goals-against average) until he was hurt against Ottawa earlier this month, forcing Buffalo to recall Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen as a complement for 40-year-old Craig Anderson. The veteran Anderson has outplayed Comrie of late (.881 SV%, 3.84 GAA), but at his age, Anderson can’t be rolled out each night. Despite the Sabres’ best offseason efforts, goaltending is a problem — again.

Buffalo has potential stars on the roster. Granato is still figuring out how best to use them. Dahlin deservedly generated early Norris Trophy buzz that has fizzled slightly along with the Sabres’ hopes of busting an 11-year postseason drought. And that’s not Dahlin’s fault. He has arguably been Buffalo’s best player, carrying a heavy workload and shepherding rookie Owen Power when they’re paired together. The Sabres just need more of everything, from everyone, everywhere. And that’s going to be even tougher to get now that Kyle Okposo and Zemgus Girgensons are out with injuries, too.

Solutions: The Sabres didn’t add many pieces in the offseason. They were prepared to go to battle with a young core of players who will, in theory, be the bedrock of great Buffalo teams to come. What’s happening now is a reflection of that choice.

Granato pointed out too many poor efforts following Buffalo’s recent loss to Toronto. He called for more determination, for the team to “dig down” and work their way out of this hole. Granato believes the Sabres’ youth to be a major benefit in that. But how?

Thompson, Dahlin, and Dylan Cozens have continuously put in the effort, with or without the desired results. That’s the example Buffalo needs to follow. Their situation doesn’t offer the most obvious solutions because, technically, the season is unfolding as planned. The next generation of Sabres is here now and doing its best to perform. Cultivating the right mindset that leads to consistent execution is part of that.

The Sabres showed real flashes of early potential. That’s not gone. One greasy win to end the streak goes a long way. Forget about expectations or postseason pressure. The Sabres have to decide, first and foremost, who they are, and what habits to hang their hat on game after game.

Senators general manager Pierre Dorion was lauded for his offseason moves that brought Claude Giroux, Alex DeBrincat, Cam Talbot and others into the fold and projected to make Ottawa a true playoff contender. The team’s 4-2-0 record out of the gate — even without Talbot fully available due to injury — suggested these Senators could live up to the hype.

Until they couldn’t. Ottawa lost seven straight games after that initial burst, and their two wins since have been over Philadelphia and Buffalo. The Senators left for their Western Conference swing dead last in the Atlantic Division.

Problems: When Dorion came to coach D.J. Smith’s defense just 11 games into the season, it was obvious things were off in Ottawa.

Top forward Josh Norris sitting out with a shoulder injury since Oct. 30 hasn’t helped. Ditto losing defenseman Artem Zub for weeks. Thomas Chabot suffering a concussion earlier this month hurt, too. Then Jacob Bernard-Docker went on the shelf for a month with a high ankle sprain. Talbot is back and posting good numbers (.924 SV%, 2.42 GAA) but without the sterling record (1-3-0) to show for it playing behind a Senators team with compounding issues.

Captain Brady Tkachuk recently identified one of them as Ottawa being “not ready to play” after a 5-1 demolishing by New Jersey. Smith also called out his team’s lack of effort in that one, most pointedly for not coming back hard enough defensively. It’s a pattern that Ottawa is failing to address.

The same could be said for Ottawa’s offensive inconsistency. Since Nov. 1, the Senators are 20th in goals scored and their power play is a meager 23rd overall (19.4%), despite ample talent.

DeBrincat has yet to be the game-breaking, 41-goal scorer he was in Chicago; only lately has the winger started to find his footing. Tkachuk tallied one five-on-five goal through his last 11 games. Same for Drake Batherson. The veteran Giroux has been Ottawa’s pillar of dependability, providing regular goal support. It’s been the opposite trend for a Senators defense that has chipped in just five goals total since late October.

Speaking of the Senators’ back end, rookie Jake Sanderson is blossoming there. That’s important. It’s just not enough. Dorion is exploring the trade market for the blue-line depth Ottawa desperately needs. Reinforcements are only one part of the puzzle, though. Change also has to come from within.

Solutions: It’s easy to blame coaching when a team underperforms. Smith is in his fourth season behind the bench, and Ottawa is struggling to thrive. But what Ottawa needs most right now is consistency.

Tkachuk said last week it’s not “one person” to blame for the Senators’ precarious position. He’s right. It’s a combination of factors that, as detailed above, compound over time. It’s too many bad habits. It’s not enough accountability. It’s feeling weighed down — rather than uplifted — by expectations.

The Senators’ self-inflicted wounds are often most egregious of all. The players themselves have to fix that through attention to detail — particularly in their own zone — and a commitment to the structure that put them in a good position earlier this season.

Now, would going after a player like Jakob Chychrun or Erik Karlsson improve Ottawa’s prospects? Absolutely. Dorion is rumored to be exploring both players as potential trade targets. But just as one player isn’t the sole problem, one addition isn’t the quick fix. Ottawa has a good foundation. The Senators have to play like they believe it.

The Capitals are a team in win-now mode that’s, well, not winning. Washington’s best run was a 4-3-0 mark through its first seven games, and two of those victories were over Montreal and Vancouver. The Capitals have failing to produce consecutive victories since.

That has landed Washington seventh in the Metro Division, just above the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Problems: Washington knew it would be missing Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson to start this season. Those voids were big enough. T.J. Oshie sitting out an extended period, followed by a potential season-ending injury to Connor Brown and other players being nicked and bumped along the way only added to their injury issues.

Many of those still in the lineup — not named Alex Ovechkin — haven’t played to Washington’s usual standards. The Capitals’ calling card has long been their attack, and that’s a shadow of itself so far. Washington is 24th in shooting percentage (9.2%) and 26th in goals per game (2.75). Not one player had hit double-digital goal totals through Washington’s first 20 games.

The Capitals have also been a shell of themselves on the power play. Unless it’s Ovechkin rifling pucks home from his right-circle office, there hasn’t been much regular action on a man advantage ranked 24th in the league (18.9%). Washington’s lack of power-play goals starts with its frequent inability to get properly set up.

Meanwhile, their 15th-ranked penalty kill (78.3%) has been a blight, too, leaving goaltenders Darcy Kuemper and Charlie Lindgren hanging out to dry with the volume of high-danger chances allowed.

Washington’s defense hasn’t helped its netminders, either. The Capitals struggle in transition — especially against quicker opponents — and they’ve fallen to the league’s bottom half in goals and shots against.

Solutions: Overcoming the early-season injury issues will be critical. Backstrom has been practicing again recently. Wilson is skating. Oshie might be close. Getting each of them back will be a boost. But is that enough?

Washington has regular skaters failing to contribute. Evgeny Kuznetsov‘s two goals in 19 games? Surprising. Lars Eller with seven points in 20 games? Conor Sheary with 10? Washington desperately needs more contributions. Because once those recovered players return, the Capitals have to hit the ground running (if they can’t get rolling before that).

Ovechkin is chasing Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal mark of 894. He’s got a long way to go, but the Capitals want to help him get there. It’s unlikely Washington is going to stage a full-fledged rebuild while Ovechkin’s chance to catch Gretzky remains in sight.

That’s beside the point, though. Washington’s window as a Stanley Cup contender is rapidly closing. There’s still hope for a turnaround if the Capitals can identify what’s limiting their offensive opportunities — beyond injuries or puck luck — and get back to their dominant roots.

Calgary’s summer packed in more drama than a season of “The Bachelor.”

Johnny Gaudreau left in free agency for Columbus. Nazem Kadri arrived via free agency to a team he once rejected. Matthew Tkachuk wanted out, and was traded for Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar.

It was enough of a net-positive to saddle the Flames with high expectations for this season, particularly after winning the Pacific Division last season. Their 5-1-0 start proved those expectations weren’t misplaced.

Then, the wheels fell off a bit with an 0-5-2 stretch that had Calgary tied in mid-November with the same record as those lottery-winning hopefuls in Chicago. The Flames have been rebounding since, but are right on the edge of being in playoff position.

Problems: The Flames wanted to keep both Gaudreau and Tkachuk. Who wouldn’t want a pair of 100-plus-point scorers on their side? But GM Brad Treliving was confident he could replace those contributions with Kadri (coming off an 87-point campaign) and Huberdeau (115). It hasn’t panned out that way. During the Flames’ winless streak, they ranked 24th in goals scored (just 16 in seven games).

Huberdeau’s output has been particularly unimpressive, accounting for two goals and eight points in the 14 games prior to an upper-body injury he sustained earlier this month. Kadri, at least, had 15 points in his first 17 games. Everyone else took their time catching up.

Elias Lindholm had great success on a line with Gaudreau and Tkachuk last season, but was slow to rack up similar totals again, with three goals in his first 11 games. Andrew Mangiapane had a breakout season in 2021-22 that hasn’t translated to his three-goal effort thus far. The scoring depth that carried Calgary’s offense before hasn’t had the same impact, which could partially be due to a lack of chemistry within a new group of players still feeling each other out.

Those are the Flames’ issues up front. Their goaltending has been a larger problem. Jacob Markstrom was undeniably elite last season, earning a league-high nine shutouts, second-team All-Star honors and the second-most Vezina Trophy votes. Markstrom’s numbers through 14 games this season: 7-4-2, .887 SV%, 3.11 GAA. Backup Dan Vladar has been worse (1-3-0, .881 SV%, 3.33 GAA).

Granted, Calgary ran aground with some defensive injuries — notably to Oliver Kylington, Chris Tanev and Michael Stone — but like any good Darryl Sutter-coached group, Calgary does well limiting shots against (28.1 per game, fourth fewest). It is not doing as well in keeping those shots that get through out of the net.

That could be a factor in why the Flames start games well (scoring the fourth-most first-period goals) but can’t close out (getting outscored 20-11 in the third period).

Solutions: Calgary’s roster went through an extreme makeover. Adjustments were inevitable. Now the Flames have to push forward.

Reliable goaltending is Priority 1. The Flames reeled off three wins in four games following their drought, but Markstrom’s stats in those games (.873 SV%, 3.44 GAA) were still troubling. That must improve.

Some of Sutter’s changes offensively already seem to be paying off. Lindholm’s line with Tyler Toffoli and Adam Ruzicka has been a particularly effective combination, leading the Flames with a combined 11 goals and 22 points at five-on-five since Nov. 1.

What Calgary requires is bottom-nine contributions and more input from its defense. The Flames managed just four goals from defenders in November, while forwards like Blake Coleman, Mikael Backlund and Dillon Dube haven’t been showing up on the score sheet as they were earlier. The Flames’ results should improve as the infirmary empties out, but Calgary won’t keep pace with the NHL’s best as a one- or two-line team. Overall, there is too much firepower on this team to think it can’t rebound in a hurry.

Vancouver responded so well to coach Bruce Boudreau taking over last season that it was assumed the Canucks would be even better this season with an established Boudreau, a healthy cast of characters and a seven-year contract extension for J.T. Miller to end his will-he-stay-or-go saga.

Then the season started.

Vancouver was 0-5-2 through seven games, scoring more than three goals in only one game and looking shellshocked nightly by each negative outcome. The Canucks have hit their mark here and there in November, but can’t seem to sustain any momentum.

Problems: While Miller’s narrative wrapped up in September, Boudreau’s was just beginning. Team president Jim Rutherford came out amid the Canucks’ early slide to retroactively criticize Boudreau’s training camp for its lack of intensity and to call out the coach for not preparing his players enough to open their schedule on a five-game road trip. It’s the kind of conversation that usually leads to a change behind the bench — only Boudreau is still there, with a dark cloud over his future. That sort of energy doesn’t breed confidence in anyone. It can do the opposite.

Vancouver has had enough to contend with elsewhere. The Canucks’ ongoing struggles with their defensive zone coverage and defending off the rush has put them near the bottom of the league in shots allowed (33.2 per game) and goals against (3.89 per game).

Quinn Hughes has been shaky early on without Luke Schenn — who is off to a much better start — by his side. Thatcher Demko‘s play in net is particularly baffling given his past success. The Vancouver netminder had a 2-8-0 mark through 12 starts, with an .884 SV% and 3.77 GAA. The Canucks have left Demko out to dry with too many cross-seam passes and odd-man rushes allowed, so it’s not entirely on him. Many of the Canucks’ early problems might be traced to their defense and goaltending instability.

Offensively, the Canucks have fared better. They’re a top-10 offense, but their scoring is also top-heavy. Just four players — Miller, Bo Horvat, Elias Pettersson and Andrei Kuzmenko — have tallied more than four goals this season, and only Pettersson has a double-digital point total at even strength. When considering that, Vancouver’s No. 26 ranking in goal differential (minus-9) begins to make more sense.

Vancouver’s fourth-ranked power play (29.7%) has been an asset in generating scoring chances. But the team’s 31st-ranked penalty kill (65.0%) can erase an advantage just as fast. That could be a microcosm for the Canucks as a whole. Highs and lows. Ebbs and flows. Great starts in the first period that lead to disappointing finishes. It’s not how Vancouver drew it up. So what can they do about it?

Solutions: Boudreau — and the Canucks at large — deserve a resolution. Is Vancouver all-in with its coach? Can Rutherford give him a Dorion-esque stamp of approval and let everyone breathe easier? At this point that might go further than attempting to bring on another fresh voice (again).

Then, it’s time for Demko to get going. He had a season-best 37-stop outing against Los Angeles last week that should give him and the team a needed boost. Brock Boeser also had a vintage performance that night, potting his first two goals of the season.

There are other reasons for optimism, too. Ilya Mikheyev is back from injury and put up nine points in his first 15 games. Horvat has been one of the NHL’s hottest scorers, and is leading by example with a strong two-way game that — with more followers behind him — should help slow some of the Canucks’ defensive woes.

Vancouver must do something about the state of its penalty kill, too. The Canucks allowed at least one power-play goal in all but three of their first 18 games. Hughes hasn’t had the same PK success as he did last season, and Demko’s downturn hasn’t helped, either. More from both of them will make a difference.

It’s all about the buy-in for Vancouver, and trusting this team can get somewhere despite a disappointing start. Victories like the one in L.A. could be a jumping-off point. And the Canucks can only go up from here … right?

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

Sports

Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

Published

4 hours ago

on

July 16, 2025

By

Who has the edge for MVP, Cy Young and more? MLB Awards Watch at the All-Star break

  • Bradford DoolittleJul 16, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

    Close

      • MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
      • Been with ESPN since 2013

Judge. Ohtani. Skubal. Wheeler.

A little more than halfway home, four of baseball’s titans have established themselves as the front-runners in the major awards races, at least according to ESPN BET. A lot can happen between now and the balloting late in the season, but when you have established stars and perennial awards favorites atop the leaderboard, their competitors can’t count on any kind of a drop-off.

In other words: Barring a major injury to Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Tarik Skubal or Zack Wheeler, it’s going to take a strong second half by anyone hoping to overtake them. It can happen, and if any of these races tighten up, it’ll be something to behold.

Awards Watch agrees with many of the assessments made by the betting markets, but if the season ended today, there would be a few disagreements, according to AXE. That doesn’t mean the voters would fall in line with the numbers, but the debate would be robust.

As we check in with our midseason Awards Watch, let’s see how things stack up for the favorites.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (162 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (148); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (138); 4. Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros (134); 5. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (133); 6. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (130); 7. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox (129); 8. (tie) Randy Arozarena, Mariners, J.P. Crawford, Mariners (124); 10. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (122).

Leader trend: Judge has retained a comfortable lead in this category all season. Raleigh drew fairly close in late June, but the gap has since widened again. That’s not Raleigh’s fault; it’s just Judge being Judge. At the time of our last Awards Watch, Judge had a 1.234 OPS. Since then, he has managed a meager 1.141. Yeah, that’s still pretty good.

The shape of Judge’s numbers has changed a bit. When we convened in late May, he was hitting .395, and he has posted a mortal .297 average since. But he has picked things up in the slugging category. Last time, he was mashing homers at the rate of 54 per 162 games. Since, that number is 66. Raleigh might be having the greatest catcher season of all time, and it’s possible that if there is any kind of Judge fatigue among the voters, that could impact the ballot. But what isn’t likely is any kind of prolonged drop-off by Judge.

Biggest mover: Buxton wasn’t in the top 10 last time out, but he has entered the top five based on several weeks of elite production and good health. During an 11-year career marked as much by injury as spectacular play, the first half featured Buxton at his best and most available, putting him on pace for his first 30/30 season at age 31. It keeps getting better: Since the last Awards Watch, Buxton has a 1.025 OPS with rates of 48 homers and 39 steals per 162 games.

Keep an eye on: Last time, there were two Red Sox in the top 10. Both have dropped out, with Alex Bregman hitting the IL and Rafael Devers hitting the airport for a flight to join his new team in San Francisco. But Boston is still represented by the overlooked Rafaela. No, he isn’t going to overtake Judge in the MVP race, but one of baseball’s most unique players deserves a little run.

After splitting time between shortstop and center field in 2024, Rafaela has played almost exclusively on the grass this season, and his defensive metrics have been off the charts. That’s driving this ranking, but Rafaela also has made tremendous strides at the plate. After entering the season with a career OPS+ of 83, he has upped that number to 118 in 2025 and is on pace for a 20/20 campaign.

National League

Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (144 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (143); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (136); 4. Kyle Tucker, Cubs (135); 5. James Wood, Washington Nationals (134); 6. Will Smith, Dodgers (131); 7. (tie) Pete Alonso, New York Mets, Juan Soto, Mets (129); 9. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (128); 10. Francisco Lindor, Mets (127).

Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong just won’t go away. He has lurked behind Ohtani on the AXE leaderboard for most of the season, but a quiet series from Ohtani in Milwaukee paired with another outburst from Crow-Armstrong flipped the top spot. Ohtani is still the favorite — the leaderboard flipped again over the weekend and, besides, he’s Ohtani — but at this point, we have to come to grips with the reality that Crow-Armstrong can mount a legitimate challenge.

Like Rafaela, Crow-Armstrong’s defensive metrics are top of the charts and, in fact, those two are in a duel for the MLB lead in defensive runs saved metrics among outfielders. But Crow-Armstrong’s bat continues to fuel his rise to superstar status. He entered the break on pace for 42 homers and 46 steals.

Ironically, if the offensive numbers between Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong are tight, it could come down to very different forms of run prevention. Crow-Armstrong is at 15 defensive runs saved as a center fielder. Meanwhile, Ohtani is at three runs above average during his nine innings on the mound. As the pitching side of Ohtani’s record grows, that gap might narrow considerably.

If that happens and it comes down to a straight-up comparison at the plate, it’s going to be tough for Crow-Armstrong, whose 140 OPS+ currently is dwarfed by Ohtani’s 174.

Biggest mover: Wood continues to cement his arrival as a right-now star player, and his pace has been accelerating even after an excellent start. Despite a subdued week before the break, Wood has a .908 OPS and 162-game rates of 42 homers, 127 RBIs, 19 steals and 100 runs since the last Awards Watch. Overall, he has a .381 OBP and is on pace for 100 walks, so those numbers aren’t driven by a short-term power surge. At 22, Wood simply is already an all-around offensive force.

Keep an eye on: Tucker overtook Crow-Armstrong for the No. 2 slot (and the Cubs’ team lead) in AXE late in June, before Crow-Armstrong reasserted himself. But Tucker’s production is metronomic: His AXE at the last Awards Watch was 130, and he is now at 135. Tucker has an .839 OPS at Wrigley Field as compared to .905 on the road, where 12 of his 17 homers have been hit. But if warmer weather and outward-blowing winds become consistent in Chicago, a Tucker power surge could be in the offing. If that happens, look out.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (151 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (149); 3. (tie) Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins (138); 5. Hunter Brown, Astros (137); 6. Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (136); 7. Kris Bubic, Royals (134); 8. Max Fried, Yankees (133); 9. Jacob deGrom, Rangers (132); 10. Bryan Woo, Mariners (126).

Leader trend: Skubal was fourth in AXE among AL pitchers last time out, though he was still the clear front-runner to repeat as AL Cy Young. A few more weeks have brought AXE in line with reality, as Skubal has gone to that magical place few pitchers ever reach.

Skubal’s blastoff actually began when we posted the last Awards Watch, as he was coming off a complete-game, two-hit shutout against Cleveland. Perhaps the most impressive part of that outing is that he recorded 13 strikeouts on just 94 pitches. Well, since then, Skubal did the same thing to Minnesota: 13 whiffs on 93 pitches on June 29.

In eight outings following the last Watch, Skubal has gone 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA, thrown at least seven innings five times and posted an absurd ratio of 61 strikeouts to nine walks. This race isn’t over, but it’s clearly Skubal’s to win.

Biggest mover: DeGrom missed the top 10 last time, but since then, he has shown every indication of ramping back up to his historic level of stifling run prevention. He’s doing it a little differently than he did in his Mets heyday, emphasizing pitch efficiency to a greater extent.

DeGrom’s 26% strikeout rate is his lowest in nearly a decade, and he has reached double digits in whiffs just once this season. But he has a sparkling 2.32 ERA and has been at 2.20 over eight starts since the last Awards Watch. He had a string of five straight starts when he threw at least six innings, reaching seven twice, all without hitting the 90-pitch mark.

Keep an eye on: Crochet has been coming on like gangbusters, as has the team around him. He finished his first half with a complete-game, three-hit shutout of Tampa Bay, closing the AXE gap between him and Skubal. Crochet leads the AL in innings pitched (129⅓), strikeouts (160) and ERA+ (185). We’ve seen Skubal do this for a full season; now, it’s up to Crochet to prove he can match the reigning Cy Young winner start for start in what’s shaping up as a great race.

National League

Front-runner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (150 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (148); 3. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (143); 4. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (135); 5. Nick Pivetta, Padres (133); 6. Ranger Suarez, Phillies (132); 7. (tie) Andrew Abbott, Reds, Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers (131); 9. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (130); 10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (128)

Leader trend: The numbers between Wheeler and Skenes are so close, it’s hard not to fixate on the disparity in the win-loss columns: Wheeler is 9-3, while the criminally under-supported Skenes is 4-8. Recently, I re-pitched the notion of a revised win-loss record based on game scores, so that’s worth taking a fresh look at to see if the difference in the traditional records is misleading.

Well, it is and it isn’t. Skenes has suffered a string of hard-luck game score losses of late and now sits at 11-9 by that method. Wheeler, meanwhile, is an MLB-best 16-3. Wheeler also has a solid edge in average game score at 65.2, as compared to 63.2 for Skenes. For now, Wheeler has the edge.

Will it last? Consider another byproduct of that game score work: pitcher temperature. You win a game score matchup, the temp goes up. You lose, it goes down. Each starter begins his career at the average temperature of 72 degrees, and it goes back and forth from there. The hottest starter in baseball by this method: Wheeler, at 127.2 degrees. Because of his recent bad run, Skenes has cooled to 68.7 degrees.

Biggest mover: For now, Sanchez has seized the spot just behind Wheeler, which of course makes him a mere No. 2 in his own rotation. Sanchez was overlooked when the NL All-Star rosters were released, and it was a true oversight. Like Wheeler, Sanchez has been fiery hot, with a string of excellent outings since the last Awards Watch. Over nine starts during that span, Sanchez has 1.77 ERA and 2.11 FIP, while pitching seven innings or more six times.

Keep an eye on: Let’s just stick with our Phillies theme and keep our eyes on their whole rotation. Wheeler (second), Sanchez (third) and Suarez (sixth) are entrenched in the top 10. Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo (126 AXE), who led this category last time out, just missed giving the Phillies four rotation members in the top 10. Philadelphia leads the majors in average game score and is second in the NL (behind Cincinnati) in game score win-loss percentage.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (121 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Cam Smith, Astros (116); 4. Noah Cameron, Royals (115); 5. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (108); 6. Jake Mangum, Tampa Bay Rays (107); 7. (tie) Mike Vasil, Chicago White Sox, Will Warren, Yankees, Jasson Dominguez, Yankees (106); 10. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (105)

Leader trend: Wilson has come back to the pack on the AXE leaderboard, perhaps inevitably after his remarkable start to the season. He was hitting .348 at the last Awards Watch then went out and pushed that number to .372 on June 8. Since then, Wilson has hit just .222 and has just three extra-base hits over 24 games. Wilson’s quick beginning turned enough heads to get him voted as the AL’s starting shortstop in the All-Star Game. But he has been replaced by Smith as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite at ESPN BET.

Biggest mover: Smith has mashed his way into prominence, but he’s proving to be a well-rounded young hitter despite just 32 games of minor league experience. Alas, his surprising .277 batting average is driven by a .378 BABIP that doesn’t seem likely to hold up. However, Smith has just seven homers, and if his game power starts to match his raw power, he can easily replace any loss in average with a gain in slugging.

Keep an eye on: Kurtz has been picking up the pace, especially in the power category, manifesting what was his calling card prior to reaching the majors. Kurtz hit the IL with a hip injury on the day the last Awards Watch went out. He had just started to drive the ball before getting hurt, and he has gone right on slugging since he came back. After homering just once over his first 23 games, Kurtz has since gone deep 16 times in 35 contests while slugging .713 in the process.

National League

Front-runner: Caleb Durbin, Brewers (113 AXE)

Next nine: 2. (tie) Chad Patrick, Brewers, Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (112); 4. (tie) Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers, Isaac Collins, Brewers (109); 6. (tie) Jack Dreyer, Dodgers, Brad Lord, Nationals (105); 8. (tie) Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins, Lake Bachar, Marlins, Yohel Pozo, St. Louis Cardinals (104)

Leader trend: The race remains tepid. One of those players tied for second — Patrick, the leader in this category last time out — is back in Triple A, joining Logan Henderson (not listed here, but who ranks 11th) in the rotation at Nashville. It’s not because of failures on their part, though, it’s just because Milwaukee is so flush with starting pitching. Speaking of which …

Biggest mover: Jacob Misiorowski had yet to debut when we last convened, but he has since become a must-watch big league starter and, amazingly, an All-Star.

He won his first three starts while posting a 1.13 ERA, then put up his first stinker in a loss to the Mets. He followed that with a head-turning six innings of dominance against the defending champion Dodgers, whiffing 12 L.A. batters and beating future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw. The end result: Misiorowski has become ESPN BET’s new front-runner for top NL rookie.

Keep an eye on: Kim has been as good as advertised for the Dodgers, matching the elite defense and baserunning we knew he had with a surprising 137 OPS+ over 119 plate appearances. Now, in the wake of Max Muncy‘s knee injury, Kim should be more of a lineup fixture, at least for a few weeks.

Manager of the Year

American League

Front-runner: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (112 EARL)

Next four: 2. Joe Espada, Astros (109); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (108); 4. John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (107); 5. Dan Wilson, Mariners (103)

Overview: It’s bittersweet to see Washington on the leaderboard now that we know he won’t be back this season because of a health issue. That leaves a pretty good battle between Hinch and Espada, his bench coach with the Astros. The Tigers’ historic pace with such a young team has Hinch in front. But Houston’s surge despite injuries and underperformances is the kind of thing that will catch a voter’s eye.

National League

Front-runner: Pat Murphy, Brewers (108 EARL)

Next four: 2. (tie) Oliver Marmol, Cardinals; Bob Melvin, Giants (106); 4. (tie) Craig Counsell, Cubs; Clayton McCullough, Marlins (105)

Overview: This is a hard race to read. Marmol is a classic candidate, guiding a low-expectation team to a good record and playoff contention. But the Cardinals might be on the verge of dropping back. Meanwhile, the Brewers have become the NL’s hottest team, nudging Murphy, last year’s NL Manager of the Year, into the lead at the break. But in both manager categories, these stories are very far from being written.

Continue Reading

Sports

MLB betting: Top storylines for the season’s second half

Published

4 hours ago

on

July 16, 2025

By

MLB betting: Top storylines for the season's second half

Coming off his second American League MVP season in 2024, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge opened as the favorite to repeat for the award. He has only helped his argument by posting the AL’s best average (.355) as well as its second-most home runs (35) and RBIs (81) at the All-Star break. However, as excellent as his season has been, a stunning breakout campaign from Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is closing the gap in the odds.

Judge currently shows -600 odds to win the AL MVP in 2025, a major improvement from his leading +300 at the start of the season, according to ESPN BET lines. However, Raleigh now has the second-best odds +325, a remarkable shortening from his opening 100-1 price.

Judge’s short odds all season — which reached an incredible -1,000 in mid-May — dictated that he was never going to be an attractive option for bettors, with BetMGM reporting 5.2% of the bettors backing him for the award, fifth best in the market.

Raleigh, on the other hand, made a slow progression up the odds board, allowing bettors to take advantage of his long plus-pricing for some time. Caesars Sportsbook baseball lead Eric Biggio said many of the sportsbook’s customers grabbed the Mariners backstop at 90-1 back in early May. Judge’s excellence actually helped keep Raleigh at a long price, according to another bookmaker, since Judge’s extremely short price needed to be balanced.

BetMGM said Raleigh holds a leading 33% of the handle for AL MVP, the book’s largest liability in the market. His laidback attitude, Home Run Derby win and amusing nickname could continue to fuel his MVP narrative … and make trouble for sportsbooks.

“As much as I like him, as much as I enjoy rooting for the Big Dumper, he’s a pretty big liability for us,” Biggio told ESPN. “We’ve got some pretty big tickets on Raleigh to win the MVP and for the home run leader.”

The latter market is also an intriguing one: Even as Raleigh (38) holds a three-homer lead over Judge, the Yankees slugger is still the solid favorite to sock the most dingers this season, showing -140 odds to Raleigh’s +130 at ESPN BET. Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani holds +800 odds to accompany his 32 home runs.

“If Raleigh wins either one of those two awards, we’re not going to be in as good of shape with him as we are with those other two guys,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN.

Ohtani is also the solid favorite for National League MVP at -700, but Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting some degree of pressure on him at +750. BetMGM reports PCA as its biggest liability in that market.

World Series favorites

Ahead of the 2025 season, the Dodgers were an astounding +160 to win the National League pennant and +275 to win the World Series, per ESPN BET lines — the shortest odds to win MLB’s championship since the 2003 Yankees. At the All-Star break, not a whole lot has changed, with L.A. now a +140 favorite to take the NL crown and a +240 favorite for the World Series.

Things have not gone as expected on the American League side, however. After opening the season at +1200 to win the AL and +3000 to take the World Series, the Detroit Tigers now display the best record in baseball, bringing their pennant odds to a favorite’s +250 and their championship odds to +700, tied with the Yankees for second best.

The underdog story resonated with the betting public, who began backing the Tigers at the first indications that they could make some noise not only in the AL Central, but in the league at large. Biggio said Detroit is Caesars’ second-largest liability, behind only the San Francisco Giants.

“We had some longer prices, and the public spotted it early that they’re a legit squad,” he said. “So some big prices on the Tigers to win it all, and they are for real.”

“They’ve become a popular futures selection, now our second-most bet World Series winner by total bets, and third-most popular pick by handle,” ESPN BET’s VP of sportsbook strategy and growth Adam Landeka said via email. “Given their relatively longer price earlier in the season, we already know we’ll be a fan of almost any team the Tigers face in the postseason.”

While Detroit’s concern will be coaching its relatively inexperienced core to a postseason run, L.A.’s will be staying healthy. Bookmakers remark that the Dodgers’ ability to keep winning games despite several significant injuries is a testament to their depth, thus keeping them a favorite in the long run.

Young arms

The eyes of the baseball world turned to Milwaukee for a seemingly random matinee game June 25. It was the first head-to-head matchup between Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes and Milwaukee Brewers rookie Jacob Misiorowski, two of the brightest future pitching stars in baseball. It would prove to be significant for at least one of them.

Prior to his MLB debut on June 12, Misirowski was +2500 to win NL Rookie of the Year. That day he moved to +1000, then to +175 after his second start, before finally becoming the odds-on favorite at -120 after getting the better of Skenes, according to ESPN BET’s Landeka. At the break, “The Miz” is -220 to take home the award. Sportsbooks were able to stay on top of his rapid ascendancy, limiting their liability.

“We were able to move this guy pretty quickly,” Avello said. “That’s one that didn’t get hit, could have had some good value there. We’re in pretty good shape with him actually.”

Skenes, meanwhile, is having another remarkable season after taking home ROY honors last year, but his disappointing record (4-8) for a dismal Pirates team could be keeping him from being the NL Cy Young favorite. He currently shows -105 odds at ESPN BET, trailing Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler at -130.

It’s largely a two-man race — Wheeler’s teammate, Cristopher Sanchez, is next closest in the odds at +2000 — but sportsbooks aren’t too worried about liability given the short prices on Skenes and Wheeler all season.

“We’ve seen comparable action on both, but as it stands now Skenes would be a better result for us,” Landeka said.

Continue Reading

Sports

NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

Published

5 hours ago

on

July 16, 2025

By

NHL schedule release: Bruins, Penguins, Maple Leafs and more lead top reveals

The 2025-26 NHL season is slowly approaching and teams checked another offseason box on Wednesday by revealing their schedules for the upcoming campaign.

Creativity abounded as squads looked to show off their upcoming calendar in distinctive ways. The Boston Bruins enlisted comedian Bill Burr to help unveil their schedule. The Pittsburgh Penguins went with a hospital theme. Dogs were brought in to help out the Toronto Maple Leafs with their reveal.

Headlined by those and more, here’s a look at the social media schedule release posts from each NHL team.

Boston Bruins

Pittsburgh Penguins

Toronto Maple Leafs

Continue Reading

Trending