This penultimate ranking could arguably be the most compelling, revealing regular-season College Football Playoff top 25.
Period.
If there is one upset in this weekend’s conference championship games — most realistically if TCU loses to Kansas State in the Big 12 championship or USC loses to Utah in the Pac-12 title game — it would open the door to controversy, allowing one-loss Ohio State and two-loss Alabama back into the conversation. The scenario in which both TCU and USC lose lends further credence to the possibility, which is why how far Ohio State falls is the biggest question for the committee. If the Buckeyes are at No. 5, they still have a chance to finish in the top four with some help. If the committee drops them below Alabama, their position becomes far more precarious.
Ohio State is already hanging by a thread after it was beaten soundly at home by a Michigan team playing without injured star running back, Blake Corum. Alabama, which has been an afterthought in the playoff race, on Tuesday could be ranked ahead of both teams it lost to — three-loss LSU and two-loss Tennessee.
Alabama and Ohio State’s résumés are complete. So who the committee deems better Tuesday night would seem to have an edge on Selection Day — if there’s an opening. A TCU loss wouldn’t rule the Frogs out, but they would be lumped in with Ohio State and Alabama as teams that didn’t win their conference. A USC loss would be harder for the committee to justify because the Trojans would have lost twice to Utah, creating doubt within the room that they are “unequivocally” one of the four best teams. A three-loss K-State isn’t getting in. A three-loss Utah isn’t getting in.
(Re)-enter Ohio State and Alabama.
According to ESPN’s strength of record metric, Ohio State’s résumé is significantly better than Alabama’s. The average top 25 team would have a 20% chance of going 11-1 or better against the Buckeyes’ schedule and a 29% chance of going 10-2 or better against the Crimson Tide’s schedule. The committee would also consider that the Buckeyes’ loss was to the No. 3-ranked team.
Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren said his conference should “without a doubt” have two teams in the playoff. Alabama coach Nick Saban advocated for his team after its Iron Bowl win, saying, “We’ve lost two games to top-10 opponents, both on the last play of the game and both on the road. We could have easily won both games but didn’t.”
Which is why the Tide still needs help, as does with Ohio State. In addition to determining who’s in the bubble this week, the committee could also consider making a change at the top. Here are three other things to watch Tuesday night (7 ET on ESPN) when the group reveals its fifth of six rankings:
Who’s No. 1?
Both Michigan and Georgia could make a case for the top spot Tuesday night, and while the order could flip now or next week, it ultimately will be significant for seeding purposes. The No. 1 team faces the No. 4 team in one semifinal and the selection committee is careful to avoid putting the top team at a geographic disadvantage. Michigan owns the best win in the country, against the committee’s No. 2 team. The committee does not try to avoid rematches in the semifinals, so it’s possible Michigan could wind up at No. 1 on Selection Day and Ohio State could be No. 4.
The Wolverines outscored Ohio State 28-3 in the second half Saturday. They also have a top 25 win against No. 11 Penn State, and are No. 2 in the country in strength of record. Georgia, though, is close behind them at No. 5, with its best wins against Tennessee, Oregon and Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have looked sluggish recently in the first half, though, scoring just 10 points against Georgia Tech and 9 the previous week in a 16-6 win at Kentucky. The committee has said in recent weeks that Georgia separated itself from the rest of the country as its No. 1 team. Is that still the case?
Can USC jump TCU?
The easiest move for the committee would be to bump undefeated TCU up to No. 3 following Ohio State’s loss, but USC’s back-to-back wins against ranked opponents UCLA and Notre Dame could give them a bigger boost. Including the Trojans’ Sept. 24 win at Oregon State — the team that just eliminated rival Oregon from the Pac-12 title game — USC has three wins against teams currently ranked in the CFP top 25. No other school has more than two wins against current top 25 opponents.
Which Group of 5 team leads for a New Year’s Six bowl bid?
The highest ranked conference champion from a Group of 5 league is guaranteed a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl, and that likely will be decided at 4 p.m. ET on Saturday when No. 19 Tulane hosts No. 22 UCF in the American Athletic Conference championship game. According to ESPN Analytics, Tulane has a 59% chance of winning. No. 24 Cincinnati should fall out of the rankings this week following its 27-24 loss to Tulane on Friday. It’s also worth keeping an eye on 10-2 UTSA, which is currently unranked by the committee, but will face North Texas in the Conference USA title game Friday. According to ESPN Analytics, UTSA has a 74% chance of winning.
Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite over Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T, per ESPN BET odds.
If that line holds, it would be tied for the second-largest spread in a CFP national championship game and the fourth largest in the CFP/BCS era. Georgia was -13.5 against TCU in the 2022 national championship, while Alabama showed -9.5 against none other than Ohio State to decide the 2020 campaign. Both favorites covered the spread in blowout fashion, combining for a cover margin of 63.
Notre Dame is 12-3 against the spread this season, tied with Arizona State (12-2) and Marshall (12-1) for the most covers in the nation. The Irish are 7-0 ATS against ranked teams and 2-0 ATS as underdogs, with both covers going down as outright victories, including their win over Penn State (-1.5) in the CFP national semifinal.
However, Notre Dame was also on the losing end of the largest outright upset of the college football season when it fell as a 28.5-point favorite to Northern Illinois.
Ohio State is 9-6 against the spread and has been a favorite in every game it has played this season; it has covered the favorite spread in every CFP game thus far, including in its semifinal win against Texas when it covered -6 with overwhelming public support.
The Buckeyes also have been an extremely popular pick in the futures market all season. At BetMGM as of Friday morning, OSU had garnered a leading 28.2% of money and 16.8% of bets to win the national title, checking in as the sportsbook’s greatest liability.
Ohio State opened at +700 to win it all this season and is now -350 with just one game to play.
ARLINGTON, Texas — Quinshon Judkins ran for two touchdowns before Jack Sawyer forced a fumble by his former roommate that he returned 83 yards for a clinching TD as Ohio State beat Texas28-14 in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic on Friday night to advance to a shot for their sixth national title.
Led by Judkins and Sawyer, the Buckeyes (13-2) posted the semifinal victory in the same stadium where 10 years ago they were champions in the debut of the College Football Playoff as a four-team format. Now they have the opportunity to be the winner again in the debut of the expanded 12-team field.
Ohio State plays Orange Bowl champion Notre Dame in Atlanta on Jan. 20. It could be quite a finish for the Buckeyes after they lost to rival Michigan on Nov. 30. Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite over the Irish, per ESPN BET.
“About a month ago, a lot of people counted us out. And these guys went to work, this team, these leaders, the captains, the staff,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day said. “Everybody in the building believed. And because of that, I believe we won the game in the fourth quarter.”
Sawyer got to Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers on a fourth-and-goal from the 8, knocking the ball loose and scooping it up before lumbering all the way to the other end. It was the longest fumble return in CFP history.
Ewers and Sawyer were roommates in Columbus, Ohio, for the one semester the quarterback was there before transferring home to Texas and helping lead the Longhorns (13-3) to consecutive CFP semifinals. But next season will be their 20th since winning their last national title with Vince Young in 2005.
Texas had gotten to the 1, helped by two pass-interference penalties in the end zone before Quintrevion Wisner was stopped for a 7-yard loss.
Judkins had a 1-yard touchdown for a 21-14 lead with 7:02 left. That score came four plays after quarterback Will Howard converted fourth-and-2 from the Texas 34 with a stumbling 18-yard run that was almost a score.
Howard was 24-of-33 passing for 289 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
Ewers finished 23-of-39 for 283 yards with two TD passes to Jaydon Blue and an interception after getting the ball back one final time.
Bill McCartney, a three-time coach of the year in the Big Eight Conference who led the Colorado Buffaloes to their only national football title in 1990, has died. He was 84.
McCartney died Friday night “after a courageous journey with dementia,” according to a family statement.
“Coach Mac touched countless lives with his unwavering faith, boundless compassion, and enduring legacy as a leader, mentor and advocate for family, community and faith,” the family said in its statement. “As a trailblazer and visionary, his impact was felt both on and off the field, and his spirit will forever remain in the hearts of those he inspired.”
After playing college ball under Dan Devine at Missouri, McCartney started coaching high school football and basketball in Detroit. He then was hired onto the staff at Michigan, the only assistant ever plucked from the high school ranks by Bo Schembechler.
Schembechler chose wisely. As the Wolverines’ defensive coordinator during the 1980 season, McCartney earned Big Ten “Player” of the Week honors for the defensive scheme he devised to stop star Purdue quarterback Mark Herrmann.
“When I was 7 years old, I knew I was going to be a coach,” McCartney told The Gazette in 2013. “My friends, other kids at that age were going to be president, businessmen, attorneys, firemen. Ever since I was a little kid, I imitated my coaches, critiqued them, always followed and studied them.”
In 1982, McCartney took over a Colorado program that was coming off three straight losing seasons with a combined record of 7-26. After three more struggling seasons, McCartney turned things around to go to bowl games in nine out of 10 seasons starting in 1985, when he switched over to a wishbone offense.
His 1989 team was 11-0 when it headed to the Orange Bowl, where Notre Dame dashed Colorado’s hopes of a perfect season. McCartney and the Buffaloes, however, would get their revenge the following season.
After getting off to an uninspiring 1-1-1 start in 1990, Colorado won its next nine games to earn a No. 1 ranking and a rematch with the Fighting Irish. This time the Buffaloes prevailed, 10-9, and grabbed a share of the national title atop the AP poll (Georgia Tech was tops in the coaches’ poll).
McCartney won numerous coach of the year honors in 1989, and he was also Big Eight Coach of the Year in 1985 and 1990. His teams went a combined 58-11-4 in his last six seasons before retiring (1989-94).
The Buffaloes finished in the AP Top 20 in each of those seasons, including No. 3 in McCartney’s final year, when the team went 11-1 behind a roster that included Kordell Stewart, Michael Westbrook and the late Rashaan Salaam. That season featured the “Miracle in Michigan,” with Westbrook hauling in a 64-yard TD catch from Stewart on a Hail Mary as time expired in a win at Michigan. Salaam also rushed for 2,055 yards to earn the Heisman Trophy.
McCartney also groomed the next wave of coaches, mentoring assistants such as Gary Barnett, Jim Caldwell, Ron Dickerson, Gerry DiNardo, Karl Dorrell, Jon Embree, Les Miles, Rick Neuheisel, Bob Simmons, Lou Tepper, Ron Vanderlinden and John Wristen.
“I was fortunate to be able to say goodbye to Coach in person last week,” Colorado athletic director Rick George, who worked under McCartney and was a longtime friend of his, said in a statement. “Coach Mac was an incredible man who taught me about the importance of faith, family and being a good husband, father and grandfather. He instilled discipline and accountability to all of us who worked and played under his leadership.
“The mark that he left on CU football and our athletic department will be hard to replicate.”
McCartney remains the winningest coach in Colorado history. He retired at age 54 with an overall record of 93-55-5 (.602) in 13 seasons, all with Colorado.
He was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame in 2013. His family announced in 2016 that McCartney had been diagnosed with late-onset dementia and Alzheimer’s.
“Here’s what football does: It teaches a boy to be a man,” McCartney told USA Today in 2017. “You say, ‘How does it do that?’ Well, what if you line up across from a guy who’s bigger, stronger, faster and tougher than you are? What do you do? Do you stay and play? Or do you turn and run? That’s what football does. You’re always going to come up against somebody who’s better than you are.
“That’s what life is. Life is getting knocked down and getting back up and getting back in the game.”
In recent years, McCartney got to watch grandson Derek play defensive line at Colorado. Derek’s father, Shannon Clavelle, was a defensive lineman for Colorado from 1992-94 before playing a few seasons in the NFL. Derek’s brother, T.C. McCartney, was a quarterback at LSU and is the son of late Colorado quarterback Sal Aunese, who played for Bill McCartney in 1987 and ’88 before being diagnosed with stomach cancer in 1989 and dying six months later at 21.
Growing up, Derek McCartney used to go next door to his grandfather’s house to listen to his stories. He never tired of them.
When playing for Colorado, hardly a day would go by when someone wouldn’t ask Derek if he was somehow related to the coach.
“I like when that happens,” Derek said.
ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg and The Associated Press contributed to this report.