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Nearly a month into the MLB offseason, we’re still awaiting the first big splash.

While we wait for the movement to pick up entering next week’s winter meetings in San Diego, we asked a panel of experts to weigh in on what they think the rest of the offseason will bring.

Where will Aaron Judge sign? Who will sign the four star shortstops? Which ace is most likely to leave his current team? And who will be the big names in the trade market?

We polled a dozen team executives and MLB insiders from across both leagues about free-agent landing spots and who’s likely to get moved in trades this offseason. Voters were assured anonymity and were given the option to skip any questions that hit too close to home.

Here’s how they voted — and what they had to say about their picks.


Will Aaron Judge get a package worth more than $320 million and who will he sign with?

Yes: 7
No: 4
New York Yankees: 6
Los Angeles Dodgers: 3
San Francisco Giants: 2

Our voters think Judge is going to one of three teams, but there is a split on which one and how much money he’ll get. Either way, he’ll likely end up with a contract for about $100 million more than the Yankees offered ($213.5 million) last spring.

“He gambled and showed up, but I’m going to say he comes in a bit below [$320 million] and comes home to the West Coast,” one voter said of the California native. “Dodgers or Giants. Sounds like Dodgers to me.”


Which shortstop will get the most dollars and years in free agency?

Trea Turner: 7
Carlos Correa: 5

There are four coveted shortstops in this free-agent class, but our panel believes Turner and Correa are in line for the biggest paydays. Correa, 28, was a popular answer due to his age, but Turner, 29, won the vote.

“I think his [Turner’s] skill set ages the best,” one voter said. “Correa has had a couple injuries, while speed doesn’t slump, right? All long-term contracts are a risk, but give me a guy with Turner’s athleticism any day.”


Where will the four big free-agent shortstops sign?

Turner: Philadelphia Phillies 6, Dodgers 4, Giants 2
Correa: Yankees 4, Minnesota Twins 3, Giants 3, Chicago Cubs 1, Boston Red Sox 1
Dansby Swanson: Atlanta Braves 6, Cubs 2, Dodgers 2, Giants 2
Xander Bogaerts: Red Sox 4, Giants 4, Dodgers 2, Yankees 1, Cubs 1

Amazingly, the Giants showed up in the vote for every shortstop. Of course, San Francisco’s public stance on a willingness to spend could have influenced this. But as you might expect, there’s no real consensus on where each shortstop will sign. Executives showed the same uncertainty for last offseason’s shortstop class. It should make for a wild winter of musical chairs at the position.

“Dave Dombrowski isn’t going to sit on his hands,” said one voter who chose Turner to the Phillies. “His owner seems to be on the same page. I almost wonder how the Phillies don’t get one of them.”

“I just think if the Giants don’t get Judge, where else can they sign up a star player?,” another voter responded.” If they get Judge, then I would vote no on a shortstop. Until then, I think they will get one.”


Yes: 4
No: 8

The majority of our voters believe deGrom will return to the team he has spent his entire career with despite the ace testing the free-agent market this winter. Should he leave New York, it would be a surprise to at least one of our respondents if the Mets didn’t do something else soon after losing him.

“I think deGrom will leave the Mets, but they’ll move to quickly replace him,” a voter said.


Yes: 9
No: 3

On the other hand, our participants think that the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner will start the new season with someone other than the reigning World Series champions.

“Houston has so much pitching, they can let Verlander walk and spend elsewhere [like they did on Jose Abreu],” one executive said.


Which top pitcher after Verlander and deGrom will provide the most value: Carlos Rodon, Kodai Senga, Taijuan Walker or Chris Bassitt?

Bassitt: 5
Rodon: 5
Senga: 2

The fact that Senga got votes says a lot about his reputation as an ace in Japan considering he has yet to pitch in the big leagues. Meanwhile, the left-handed Rodon appears to have shed any durability questions after making 31 starts and pitching 178 innings in 2022. But it was the right-handed Bassitt who won this vote. Bassitt’s ERA has been higher than Rodon’s in each of the past two seasons, but in terms of pure value, the righty edged out the lefty.

“I like Rodon in one game for my season, but long term, I think Bassitt is probably the best value,” one voter said.

“It’s really not fair to judge Senga, so I voted for Bassitt as the safest bet,” another voter said.

Which team (outside of yours) will make the biggest splash this offseason?

Giants: 3
Phillies: 2
Texas Rangers: 2
Dodgers: 2
Red Sox: 1
Yankees: 1
Cubs: 1

The variety of teams given in this answer is a good indication of where baseball is right now: with a lot of teams that think they can make the postseason and, more importantly, win the World Series — and with money to spend to help that cause. Texas might not be an October favorite today, but it should be a hot stove player.

“I know the Rangers did it [spent] last season,” one voter opined, “but I don’t see why they won’t again. Bruce Bochy didn’t unretire to sit at home in October. This year they’ll add pitching. You can count on that.”


Who will be the most notable player traded this winter?

Sean Murphy: 3
Pablo Lopez: 3
Lucas Giolito: 2
Bryan Reynolds: 2
Corbin Burnes: 2
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1
Kolten Wong: 1

Some executives answered who was most likely to be traded as much as who will be the most notable, while the Tatis voter didn’t explain his choice — but certainly raised eyebrows with his pick.

“Lopez is such a good trade option at a much lower monetary cost for teams after some of the big free-agent pitchers come off the board,” one evaluator said. “With two seasons of control, Miami should get a nice haul.”


How much do MLB’s 2023 rule changes impact your offseason’s decision-making: a lot, some or not at all?

Not at all: 6
Some: 4
A lot: 0

Among the new rules, the elimination of the shift is most likely to impact roster construction, according to executives at the general manager’s meetings earlier this month. But they also say they don’t have a complete picture yet. Teams need to see it all in action before they know how it will impact decision-making in the future.

“Obviously, you can’t hide nonathletic second basemen anymore, but what we don’t know is how much the running game will be impacted by all these changes — both behind the plate and on the bases,” one voter said. “I don’t think the pitch clock will do much to roster construction long term.”

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Bama blows 28-0 lead, escapes UGA on late TD

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Bama blows 28-0 lead, escapes UGA on late TD

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Alabama blew a 28-point lead against No. 2 Georgia at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday night.

And then the No. 4 Crimson Tide broke the Bulldogs’ hearts again in a 41-34 victory in which the SEC heavyweights scored touchdowns on consecutive plays from scrimmage late in the fourth quarter.

Alabama didn’t seal the victory until cornerback Zabien Brown intercepted quarterback Carson Beck‘s pass to receiver Colbie Young in the end zone with 43 seconds left to end Georgia’s furious rally.

After the Bulldogs rallied from a 23-point deficit at halftime, they took their first lead on Beck’s 67-yard touchdown to Dillon Bell to make it 34-33 with 2:31 to go.

But Alabama scored on its very next play from scrimmage. On first-and-10 from the Crimson Tide 25, quarterback Jalen Milroe threw a deep ball down the right sideline for freshman Ryan Williams. The receiver spun out of cornerback Julian Humphrey‘s tackle at the 8-yard line and beat safety KJ Bolden for a 75-yard touchdown with 2:18 remaining. Milroe threw a 2-point conversion to receiver Germie Bernard to give Alabama a 41-34 lead.

Milroe completed 27 of 33 passes for 374 yards with two touchdowns and ran for 117 yards with two scores. He is the first player in FBS history with 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns against an AP top-five opponent, according to ESPN Research.

Williams, a 17-year-old freshman, had six catches for 177 yards with one score.

Beck recovered from a slow start to complete 27 of 50 passes for 439 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions. He also lost a fumble and was sacked three times.

The loss ended Georgia’s 42-game winning streak in the regular season, which was the longest run by an FBS team since Oklahoma won 45 in a row from 1953 to 1957. It also snapped Georgia’s 16-game winning streak on the road.

It was new Tide coach Kalen DeBoer’s first meeting with Georgia, but the results were the same for Alabama. It has won nine of its past 10 games against Georgia, including a 27-24 victory in last year’s SEC championship game, which led to the Bulldogs failing to make the College Football Playoff.

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Texas overcomes sloppy start to nab 1st SEC win

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Texas overcomes sloppy start to nab 1st SEC win

AUSTIN, Texas — No. 1 Texas got its first SEC win behind the arm of Arch Manning, who helped the Longhorns overcome a slow start and some self-inflicted setbacks to beat Mississippi State 35-13 on Saturday.

Manning was 26-of-31 for 324 yards and two touchdowns and added 33 rushing yards and another score, despite Johntay Cook II dropping a wide-open touchdown pass that would’ve added another 62 passing yards in the second quarter. A week after throwing two interceptions in his first start against UL Monroe, Manning said he felt more relaxed.

“I think last week I didn’t have as much fun as I wanted to,” Manning said. “I think I had a little bit more fun today even though it was a little rocky.”

It was rocky because running back Jaydon Blue lost two fumbles — one in the red zone — Cook dropped a touchdown and there were eight penalties on the Texas offense. Coach Steve Sarkisian criticized himself for kicking a field goal, then going for it on fourth down after a defensive penalty gave the Longhorns another chance. Texas failed to convert, taking three points off the board.

The Longhorns went into halftime with a 14-6 lead, with Mississippi State running a ground-heavy approach behind true freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. The Bulldogs ran 73 plays on the night to Texas’ 62, but the Longhorns outgained them 522 yards to 294. There were also 17 penalties in the game, many with lengthy reviews.

“It was hard for the game to get a rhythm to it,” Sarkisian said.

But he was pleased that the Longhorns navigated this stretch of the season and Quinn Ewers‘ injury to start 5-0. It’s the second straight season Texas has started 5-0, marking just the second time in the past 50 years the Longhorns have done it in back-to-back years. Texas has an off week coming up, followed by the Red River Rivalry in Dallas against Oklahoma, before Georgia comes to Austin the following week.

Sarkisian said the Longhorns showed poise, and he was pleased they were able to survive their first SEC challenge while letting Ewers recover from a strained oblique injury without having to rush him back.

“We need Quinn back because he’s our quarterback and he’s our leader,” Sarkisian said. “I think that impacts the entire team and belief, but what I think we learned and what Arch learned here over the last 2½ games is this team can count on him too.”

Manning said he’s ready for Ewers’ return whenever that might be.

“I think Quinn’s proved himself,” Manning said. “I mean, he led us to the Sugar Bowl last year and he’s played really well this year, so this is his team. I think he’s going to come back and play really well, but I’ll be ready for when my number’s called if they need me. So we’re just going to try and keep this thing rolling.”

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‘Business as usual’ for 4-0 UNLV without Sluka

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'Business as usual' for 4-0 UNLV without Sluka

LAS VEGAS — UNLV made a statement Saturday in its first game without former starting quarterback Matthew Sluka: The Rebels are going to be just fine.

Rolling to a dominant 59-14 win over Fresno State and moving to 4-0, UNLV proved it will be a contender in the Mountain West Conference race regardless of its quarterback change.

Hajj-Malik Williams threw for 182 yards, rushed for 119 yards and accounted for four total touchdowns in his first start for the Rebels after Sluka opted to leave the program Wednesday over a dispute about his NIL compensation.

“It was business as usual,” UNLV coach Barry Odom said. “We’ve got a very mature team. … Our players, we’ve got strong leadership. They understand the mission that we’re on and they got it done.”

Williams, a sixth-year senior and FCS transfer from Campbell, joined the Rebels in January and lost a close competition with Sluka in fall camp. The 24-year-old quarterback played in 41 games at Campbell, leaving as the program’s career leader in passing yards and touchdowns, and was ready for his opportunity.

“I thought he was effective, I thought he was efficient,” Odom said. “I thought the offensive line did a tremendous job protecting him. I thought the receivers ran great routes. I thought the runners ran hard. We played well as an offense.”

UNLV wide receiver Ricky White III led the Rebels with a season-high 10 catches for 127 yards and two touchdowns and said the quarterback change was “definitely good for us.”

“He’s just a great quarterback that us, as an offense, we can rally behind and just go by his pace,” White said.

After starting three games for UNLV, Sluka opted to redshirt and was expected to enter the transfer portal in December. Sluka’s father and agent have alleged he was verbally promised $100,000 by UNLV offensive coordinator Brennan Marion during his recruitment but received only $3,000 from the school’s NIL collective. UNLV said in a statement that Sluka’s representatives made financial demands for him to keep playing that it interpreted as “a violation of NCAA pay-for-play rules, as well as Nevada state law.”

Odom read from a prepared statement during his postgame news conference and did not take questions regarding Sluka. He said UNLV complied with applicable rules and was committed to the development and success of every player in the program.

“Many have expressed very strong opinions about the events of last week without full knowledge of the facts, without full knowledge of the events of last week and without full knowledge of the rules in the ever-changing, evolving NIL system,” Odom said. “And regrettably, some have even used this circumstance as a platform for their own agendas. I respect everyone’s right to an opinion, and I won’t comment on others’ opinions or their motivations for expressing them.”

White also had a message for Circa Sports CEO Derek Stevens after the Vegas casino expressed interest in offering $100,000 to keep Sluka on the team, telling the Las Vegas Review-Journal that doing so would be worth it “to keep the Rebels’ playoff hopes alive.”

“I would ask that somebody reach out to the Circa CEO and ask him, with that $100,000 that he wanted to donate, give it to our O-line please,” White said.

The Rebels ended a six-game losing streak against Fresno State and achieved the program’s first 4-0 start since 1976 with a strong day in all three phases of the game. Their defense produced four interceptions and four sacks while giving up only 30 rushing yards, and their special teams delivered a blocked punt that White returned for a touchdown in the first quarter plus a 90-yard kickoff return touchdown by Jai’Den Thomas in the fourth quarter.

The victory kept UNLV in the race for the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff and concluded a chaotic week for an athletic department that was simultaneously dealing with the latest round of conference realignment in college athletics.

UNLV officially decided to remain in the Mountain West on Thursday, turning down a move to the Pac-12 following that league’s addition of Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State for 2026. The seven remaining schools in the Mountain West agreed to a grant of rights that will bind them to the conference through 2031-32.

After already defeating Big 12 members Houston and Kansas in nonconference play, UNLV gets one more opportunity to take down a Power 4 opponent and strengthen its CFP résumé when it hosts 3-1 Syracuse on Friday.

“Our guys will flip the page really quickly,” Odom said. “I could tell in the locker room we’re ready to do that and get on to the next game.”

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