Nearly a month into the MLB offseason, we’re still awaiting the first big splash.
While we wait for the movement to pick up entering next week’s winter meetings in San Diego, we asked a panel of experts to weigh in on what they think the rest of the offseason will bring.
Where will Aaron Judge sign? Who will sign the four star shortstops? Which ace is most likely to leave his current team? And who will be the big names in the trade market?
We polled a dozen team executives and MLB insiders from across both leagues about free-agent landing spots and who’s likely to get moved in trades this offseason. Voters were assured anonymity and were given the option to skip any questions that hit too close to home.
Here’s how they voted — and what they had to say about their picks.
Will Aaron Judge get a package worth more than $320 million and who will he sign with?
Our voters think Judge is going to one of three teams, but there is a split on which one and how much money he’ll get. Either way, he’ll likely end up with a contract for about $100 million more than the Yankees offered ($213.5 million) last spring.
“He gambled and showed up, but I’m going to say he comes in a bit below [$320 million] and comes home to the West Coast,” one voter said of the California native. “Dodgers or Giants. Sounds like Dodgers to me.”
Which shortstop will get the most dollars and years in free agency?
There are four coveted shortstops in this free-agent class, but our panel believes Turner and Correa are in line for the biggest paydays. Correa, 28, was a popular answer due to his age, but Turner, 29, won the vote.
“I think his [Turner’s] skill set ages the best,” one voter said. “Correa has had a couple injuries, while speed doesn’t slump, right? All long-term contracts are a risk, but give me a guy with Turner’s athleticism any day.”
Where will the four big free-agent shortstops sign?
Amazingly, the Giants showed up in the vote for every shortstop. Of course, San Francisco’s public stance on a willingness to spend could have influenced this. But as you might expect, there’s no real consensus on where each shortstop will sign. Executives showed the same uncertainty for last offseason’s shortstop class. It should make for a wild winter of musical chairs at the position.
“Dave Dombrowski isn’t going to sit on his hands,” said one voter who chose Turner to the Phillies. “His owner seems to be on the same page. I almost wonder how the Phillies don’t get one of them.”
“I just think if the Giants don’t get Judge, where else can they sign up a star player?,” another voter responded.” If they get Judge, then I would vote no on a shortstop. Until then, I think they will get one.”
Yes: 4 No: 8
The majority of our voters believe deGrom will return to the team he has spent his entire career with despite the ace testing the free-agent market this winter. Should he leave New York, it would be a surprise to at least one of our respondents if the Mets didn’t do something else soon after losing him.
“I think deGrom will leave the Mets, but they’ll move to quickly replace him,” a voter said.
Yes: 9 No: 3
On the other hand, our participants think that the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner will start the new season with someone other than the reigning World Series champions.
“Houston has so much pitching, they can let Verlander walk and spend elsewhere [like they did on Jose Abreu],” one executive said.
The fact that Senga got votes says a lot about his reputation as an ace in Japan considering he has yet to pitch in the big leagues. Meanwhile, the left-handed Rodon appears to have shed any durability questions after making 31 starts and pitching 178 innings in 2022. But it was the right-handed Bassitt who won this vote. Bassitt’s ERA has been higher than Rodon’s in each of the past two seasons, but in terms of pure value, the righty edged out the lefty.
“I like Rodon in one game for my season, but long term, I think Bassitt is probably the best value,” one voter said.
“It’s really not fair to judge Senga, so I voted for Bassitt as the safest bet,” another voter said.
Which team (outside of yours) will make the biggest splash this offseason?
The variety of teams given in this answer is a good indication of where baseball is right now: with a lot of teams that think they can make the postseason and, more importantly, win the World Series — and with money to spend to help that cause. Texas might not be an October favorite today, but it should be a hot stove player.
“I know the Rangers did it [spent] last season,” one voter opined, “but I don’t see why they won’t again. Bruce Bochy didn’t unretire to sit at home in October. This year they’ll add pitching. You can count on that.”
Who will be the most notable player traded this winter?
Some executives answered who was most likely to be traded as much as who will be the most notable, while the Tatis voter didn’t explain his choice — but certainly raised eyebrows with his pick.
“Lopez is such a good trade option at a much lower monetary cost for teams after some of the big free-agent pitchers come off the board,” one evaluator said. “With two seasons of control, Miami should get a nice haul.”
How much do MLB’s 2023 rule changes impact your offseason’s decision-making:a lot, some or not at all?
Not at all: 6 Some: 4 A lot: 0
Among the new rules, the elimination of the shift is most likely to impact roster construction, according to executives at the general manager’s meetings earlier this month. But they also say they don’t have a complete picture yet. Teams need to see it all in action before they know how it will impact decision-making in the future.
“Obviously, you can’t hide nonathletic second basemen anymore, but what we don’t know is how much the running game will be impacted by all these changes — both behind the plate and on the bases,” one voter said. “I don’t think the pitch clock will do much to roster construction long term.”
Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite over Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T, per ESPN BET odds.
If that line holds, it would be tied for the second-largest spread in a CFP national championship game and the fourth largest in the CFP/BCS era. Georgia was -13.5 against TCU in the 2022 national championship, while Alabama showed -9.5 against none other than Ohio State to decide the 2020 campaign. Both favorites covered the spread in blowout fashion, combining for a cover margin of 63.
Notre Dame is 12-3 against the spread this season, tied with Arizona State (12-2) and Marshall (12-1) for the most covers in the nation. The Irish are 7-0 ATS against ranked teams and 2-0 ATS as underdogs, with both covers going down as outright victories, including their win over Penn State (-1.5) in the CFP national semifinal.
However, Notre Dame was also on the losing end of the largest outright upset of the college football season when it fell as a 28.5-point favorite to Northern Illinois.
Ohio State is 9-6 against the spread and has been a favorite in every game it has played this season; it has covered the favorite spread in every CFP game thus far, including in its semifinal win against Texas when it covered -6 with overwhelming public support.
The Buckeyes also have been an extremely popular pick in the futures market all season. At BetMGM as of Friday morning, OSU had garnered a leading 28.2% of money and 16.8% of bets to win the national title, checking in as the sportsbook’s greatest liability.
Ohio State opened at +700 to win it all this season and is now -350 with just one game to play.
ARLINGTON, Texas — Quinshon Judkins ran for two touchdowns before Jack Sawyer forced a fumble by his former roommate that he returned 83 yards for a clinching TD as Ohio State beat Texas28-14 in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic on Friday night to advance to a shot for their sixth national title.
Led by Judkins and Sawyer, the Buckeyes (13-2) posted the semifinal victory in the same stadium where 10 years ago they were champions in the debut of the College Football Playoff as a four-team format. Now they have the opportunity to be the winner again in the debut of the expanded 12-team field.
Ohio State plays Orange Bowl champion Notre Dame in Atlanta on Jan. 20. It could be quite a finish for the Buckeyes after they lost to rival Michigan on Nov. 30. Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite over the Irish, per ESPN BET.
“About a month ago, a lot of people counted us out. And these guys went to work, this team, these leaders, the captains, the staff,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day said. “Everybody in the building believed. And because of that, I believe we won the game in the fourth quarter.”
Sawyer got to Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers on a fourth-and-goal from the 8, knocking the ball loose and scooping it up before lumbering all the way to the other end. It was the longest fumble return in CFP history.
Ewers and Sawyer were roommates in Columbus, Ohio, for the one semester the quarterback was there before transferring home to Texas and helping lead the Longhorns (13-3) to consecutive CFP semifinals. But next season will be their 20th since winning their last national title with Vince Young in 2005.
Texas had gotten to the 1, helped by two pass-interference penalties in the end zone before Quintrevion Wisner was stopped for a 7-yard loss.
Judkins had a 1-yard touchdown for a 21-14 lead with 7:02 left. That score came four plays after quarterback Will Howard converted fourth-and-2 from the Texas 34 with a stumbling 18-yard run that was almost a score.
Howard was 24-of-33 passing for 289 yards with a touchdown and an interception.
Ewers finished 23-of-39 for 283 yards with two TD passes to Jaydon Blue and an interception after getting the ball back one final time.
Bill McCartney, a three-time coach of the year in the Big Eight Conference who led the Colorado Buffaloes to their only national football title in 1990, has died. He was 84.
McCartney died Friday night “after a courageous journey with dementia,” according to a family statement.
“Coach Mac touched countless lives with his unwavering faith, boundless compassion, and enduring legacy as a leader, mentor and advocate for family, community and faith,” the family said in its statement. “As a trailblazer and visionary, his impact was felt both on and off the field, and his spirit will forever remain in the hearts of those he inspired.”
After playing college ball under Dan Devine at Missouri, McCartney started coaching high school football and basketball in Detroit. He then was hired onto the staff at Michigan, the only assistant ever plucked from the high school ranks by Bo Schembechler.
Schembechler chose wisely. As the Wolverines’ defensive coordinator during the 1980 season, McCartney earned Big Ten “Player” of the Week honors for the defensive scheme he devised to stop star Purdue quarterback Mark Herrmann.
“When I was 7 years old, I knew I was going to be a coach,” McCartney told The Gazette in 2013. “My friends, other kids at that age were going to be president, businessmen, attorneys, firemen. Ever since I was a little kid, I imitated my coaches, critiqued them, always followed and studied them.”
In 1982, McCartney took over a Colorado program that was coming off three straight losing seasons with a combined record of 7-26. After three more struggling seasons, McCartney turned things around to go to bowl games in nine out of 10 seasons starting in 1985, when he switched over to a wishbone offense.
His 1989 team was 11-0 when it headed to the Orange Bowl, where Notre Dame dashed Colorado’s hopes of a perfect season. McCartney and the Buffaloes, however, would get their revenge the following season.
After getting off to an uninspiring 1-1-1 start in 1990, Colorado won its next nine games to earn a No. 1 ranking and a rematch with the Fighting Irish. This time the Buffaloes prevailed, 10-9, and grabbed a share of the national title atop the AP poll (Georgia Tech was tops in the coaches’ poll).
McCartney won numerous coach of the year honors in 1989, and he was also Big Eight Coach of the Year in 1985 and 1990. His teams went a combined 58-11-4 in his last six seasons before retiring (1989-94).
The Buffaloes finished in the AP Top 20 in each of those seasons, including No. 3 in McCartney’s final year, when the team went 11-1 behind a roster that included Kordell Stewart, Michael Westbrook and the late Rashaan Salaam. That season featured the “Miracle in Michigan,” with Westbrook hauling in a 64-yard TD catch from Stewart on a Hail Mary as time expired in a win at Michigan. Salaam also rushed for 2,055 yards to earn the Heisman Trophy.
McCartney also groomed the next wave of coaches, mentoring assistants such as Gary Barnett, Jim Caldwell, Ron Dickerson, Gerry DiNardo, Karl Dorrell, Jon Embree, Les Miles, Rick Neuheisel, Bob Simmons, Lou Tepper, Ron Vanderlinden and John Wristen.
“I was fortunate to be able to say goodbye to Coach in person last week,” Colorado athletic director Rick George, who worked under McCartney and was a longtime friend of his, said in a statement. “Coach Mac was an incredible man who taught me about the importance of faith, family and being a good husband, father and grandfather. He instilled discipline and accountability to all of us who worked and played under his leadership.
“The mark that he left on CU football and our athletic department will be hard to replicate.”
McCartney remains the winningest coach in Colorado history. He retired at age 54 with an overall record of 93-55-5 (.602) in 13 seasons, all with Colorado.
He was inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame in 2013. His family announced in 2016 that McCartney had been diagnosed with late-onset dementia and Alzheimer’s.
“Here’s what football does: It teaches a boy to be a man,” McCartney told USA Today in 2017. “You say, ‘How does it do that?’ Well, what if you line up across from a guy who’s bigger, stronger, faster and tougher than you are? What do you do? Do you stay and play? Or do you turn and run? That’s what football does. You’re always going to come up against somebody who’s better than you are.
“That’s what life is. Life is getting knocked down and getting back up and getting back in the game.”
In recent years, McCartney got to watch grandson Derek play defensive line at Colorado. Derek’s father, Shannon Clavelle, was a defensive lineman for Colorado from 1992-94 before playing a few seasons in the NFL. Derek’s brother, T.C. McCartney, was a quarterback at LSU and is the son of late Colorado quarterback Sal Aunese, who played for Bill McCartney in 1987 and ’88 before being diagnosed with stomach cancer in 1989 and dying six months later at 21.
Growing up, Derek McCartney used to go next door to his grandfather’s house to listen to his stories. He never tired of them.
When playing for Colorado, hardly a day would go by when someone wouldn’t ask Derek if he was somehow related to the coach.
“I like when that happens,” Derek said.
ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg and The Associated Press contributed to this report.