CFP preview: First look at Georgia-Ohio State, Michigan-TCU
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ESPN staff
Nick Saban tried. Alabama‘s coach found whatever megaphone was available to him Saturday night to publicly plead the Crimson Tide’s case to make the College Football Playoff.
He suggested looking at the top four through the lens of, “How are they playing at the present?” He asked, “If we played these teams in question, would we be underdogs in the game or not?”
But the committee didn’t budge. Betting lines aren’t part of their criteria, after all. They meet in Grapevine, Texas, not Las Vegas.
There would be no leapfrogging Ohio State or TCU. In the end, the math was simple: The top three of Georgia, Michigan and TCU remained the same, out went USC by virtue of a second loss in the Pac-12 championship game, and in slipped the Buckeyes, who moved up one spot to No. 4. Which means, for just the second time since the CFP began in 2014, Alabama will not be part of the semifinal round.
So we have new blood: The Horned Frogs become the first team from the Big 12 not named Oklahoma to reach the playoff.
And we have an old rivalry: The Buckeyes and Wolverines will play their respective semifinal games for a chance to meet for the national championship.
And we have a chance for some more history: Georgia is seeking to become the first repeat champion of the CFP era.
Here’s a first look at the semifinal games.
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
When: Saturday, Dec. 31 at 8 p.m. ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
How to watch: ESPN and ESPN App
Opening line via Caesars Sportsbook: Georgia by 7
Georgia
Key player: Georgia’s defense shouldn’t be this good again. Repeating last season’s success would have been hard enough, even if it had not lost five first-round draft picks to the NFL. But maybe the most talented player on that defense from a year ago — Jalen Carter — did come back. And after dealing with nagging injuries the first half of the season, he has showed what a game-wrecker he can be of late. In his past six games, he had 24 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, three sacks and two forced fumbles. Big and strong enough to plug the running lanes, and quick and agile enough to rush the passer, Carter must be accounted for.
X factor: Georgia’s offense is effective, of course. It has a three-headed monster at running back with Kenny McIntosh, Kendall Milton and Daijun Edwards. And quarterback Stetson Bennett is a threat whether he’s throwing from the pocket or scrambling for yards. What’s more, he has mismatches at tight end in Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington to lean on. But who’s the go-to receiver? Who’s the deep threat? Ladd McConkey is solid with 51 receptions and five touchdowns, but those aren’t exactly eye-popping numbers, and he’s undersized at 6-foot. Fellow receivers Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint and Dillon Bell have only two touchdowns apiece.
How Georgia wins: The formula isn’t terribly complicated. Kirby Smart built the Bulldogs to win the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. So start from the inside out. Carter and the defensive line suffocate the running game (2.97 yards per rush during the regular season, sixth lowest in the FBS) and get in the face of the quarterback (31% pressure rate). Meanwhile, the offensive line powers a strong running game (5.5 yards per rush, eighth best among Power 5 teams) and protects the quarterback (seven sacks, tied for second fewest in the FBS). Throw in a savvy veteran quarterback (Bennett) and an All-America tight end (Bowers), and all the ingredients to reach the national championship game are there. — Alex Scarborough
Ohio State
Key player: Quarterback C.J. Stroud had a Heisman-type season going until the Michigan game, with 3,330 passing yards, 37 touchdowns and six interceptions on the year. Stroud threw for 349 yards and two touchdowns against the Wolverines but also had two interceptions. The Buckeyes were dealing with injuries to running back TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams, while freshman Dallan Hayden had just two carries. With converted linebacker Chip Trayanum getting most of the carries, Stroud becomes that much more important if Ohio State isn’t fully healthy at running back. He has been the leader of the offense this season, and while the loss to rival Michigan was a big setback, he can make up for it in the playoffs.
X factor: Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is one of the best receivers in the country. He has continuously made ridiculous catches throughout the season and makes plays most receivers can’t. The Buckeyes are dealing with injuries to the ground game and have also been without receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, so Harrison is vital to the offense on this stage. If he can provide a reliable target for Stroud and get in the end zone, Ohio State should be able to hang with any of the other semifinalists.
How Ohio State wins: The defense needs to limit big plays. It has done a good job of limiting explosive plays all season but showed some weaknesses against the Wolverines, who were able to score multiple long touchdowns through the air and on the ground. The offense has proved that it can put points on the board, but now the defense has to meet the challenge of playing a top-notch offense and have its best game yet. — Tom VanHaaren
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 TCU
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
When: Saturday, Dec. 31 at 4 p.m. ET
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
How to watch: ESPN and ESPN App
Opening line via Caesars Sportsbook: Michigan by 9
Michigan
Key player: Running back Donovan Edwards had 216 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Michigan’s win against Ohio State. With Blake Corum out, Edwards’ performance will be key for the Wolverines. The run game is critical to the Michigan offense, and Edwards’ ability to establish the run and open up the passing game will be a key for the Wolverines.
X factor: Michigan has been a second-half team all season, with a plus-186 point differential after halftime. That is the second-highest margin for any FBS team through 12 games over the past 10 years. The Wolverines have been able to wear out their opponents in every game and have not shown any signs that they will slow down after outscoring Ohio State 28-3 in the final regular-season game and Purdue 29-9 in the Big Ten championship game. Coach Jim Harbaugh has praised strength and conditioning coach Ben Herbert for those second-half surges, which have been a signature for Michigan all season.
How Michigan wins: If the Wolverines can establish their running game and control the clock as they have all season, plus mix in some big plays through the air from quarterback J.J. McCarthy, they should have a good shot. McCarthy has continuously called this a “smashfest” team, and the Wolverines relish beating their opponents up front. Michigan showed it can strike through the air if it has to against Ohio State, but its ideal scenario is having success on the ground first. — Tom VanHaaren
TCU
Key player: Max Duggan attempted another wild comeback Saturday against Kansas State, but the Frogs came up just short for the first time in six of those scratch-and-claw games this season. But Duggan has been unflappable, never more so than in a late comeback win on the road at Baylor, when he led two fourth-quarter scoring drives without TCU’s best running back (Kendre Miller, who has 1,342 rushing yards this season, the most at TCU since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2000), top two receivers (Quentin Johnston and Derius Davis) and no timeouts. Duggan has thrown for 3,321 yards and 30 touchdowns to just four interceptions, and his 25 career rushing touchdowns are in the top 10 in school history. Duggan calmly piloted the Frogs to victory after falling behind by 17 to Oklahoma State and 18 to Kansas State in the regular season. That’s why he’s a leading contender for the Heisman Trophy.
X factor: Quentin Johnston. The 6-4, 215-pound junior receiver is a big-play threat with first-round draft potential but has been hobbled for much of the season. When TCU has turned to him, he has been huge, including a key third-down catch with the game on the line in the fourth quarter at Texas, and a 55-yard touchdown catch down late against Kansas State. The Horned Frogs were able to rest him against Iowa State to get him ready for the postseason. When he was healthy, Johnston showed his potential with a two-game stretch against Oklahoma State and on the road against Kansas, when he combined for 22 catches for 386 yards and two touchdowns. On Saturday against Kansas State, he caught four passes for 139 yards. A return to that type of threat would be a huge boost for TCU.
How TCU wins: The Frogs have employed a mix of thunder and lightning to keep opponents on the ropes, particularly in the second half. TCU had 17 plays of at least 50 yards this season, second only to Tennessee in the FBS. Duggan ranks third nationally in completion percentage on passes of 20 or more yards downfield at a 54.7% clip with 12 touchdowns on such plays, tops in the country. And Miller rushed for more than 1,000 yards between the tackles and is tough to bring down, ranking third in the Big 12 with 650 yards after contact. If the Frogs can remain patient and pound away with Miller, they’ll be able to open up the field for their playmakers and a roster loaded with speed. — Dave Wilson
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Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
Mikhail Sergachev‘s return sparked the host Tampa Bay Lightning, who avoided elimination, with a 6-3 victory over the Florida Panthers in Game 4 of their first-round series on Saturday.
One of the Lightning’s top defenseman had been out since fracturing the tibia and fibula in his left leg on Feb. 7. Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper had predicted the Lightning would need to “go far” in the playoffs to see Sergachev dress for another game. Sergachev surpassed all expectations by suiting up just 80 days following that break to be a last-minute addition to the Lightning’s starters.
“I felt like a hockey player again. It was unbelievable,” Sergachev said. I found out yesterday the [doctors] cleared me, and it was Coach [Cooper’s] decision [if I played]. I stayed at the rink a little longer waiting for the coach to say yes or no. And he said yes. I got very excited.”
Sergachev had hoped he’d be able to come by for Game 1 of the series but that didn’t pan out. Instead, he logged 17:03 in ice time and notched an assist on Brandon Hagel‘s second-period goal through his Saturday debut. Sergachev admitted to being “a little bit tired” in the end after so long on the sidelines. But Sergachev’s smile never wavered.
Even though he’s played nearly 500 NHL games since being drafted by Tampa ninth overall in 2016 and established himself as one of the league’s rising stars on defense, there were still a few butterflies present before Saturday’s game.
“Honestly, I couldn’t really sleep last night; it felt like my first NHL game again,” Sergachev said. “And then you go on the ice, and you get that [reception] from the fans in the warmup — it made me very emotional. I’m thankful to be here.”
The Lightning are grateful to be alive in their series, too. Tampa — still trailing Florida 3-1 — narrowly avoided being swept by its in-state rivals. The Lightning held a 3-0 lead after the first period but the Panthers roared back to cut the deficit to 4-3 after 40 minutes. However, Tampa scored the game’s final two goals to extend the series.
Tampa finally found its footing offensively. The Lightning exploded up front, led by two-goal performances from Steven Stamkos and Hagel and a three-point effort by Brayden Point. The Lightning power play also had its best showing of the postseason, going 2-for-5.
Stamkos credited Sergachev’s return for adding emotional energy to the group before the puck dropped.
“I got chills myself, with the reception he got,” Stamkos said. “The amount of work that goes into coming back from an injury like that, it’s impressive. The timeline is impressive, everything he’s done is extremely impressive. To go out there and jump into a series when we’re down and on the ropes, it was a huge boost for our team. I thought Sergy played outstanding tonight. Hopefully that continues because he’s a big part of our defense for sure.”
Sergachev in turn thanked Stamkos for providing much-needed inspiration from Stamkos’ recovery from a broken leg in 2013.
“Our trainer was showing me videos of Stammer skating like four weeks after [that injury],” Sergachev said. “That kind of pushed me and made me work because the first four weeks since the injury, it was tough mentally. But seeing those videos of him walking pretty much the next day and doing all that stuff kind of helped.”
It wasn’t easy for Sergachev to be back on the injured list. That February game marked Sergachev’s first night back from a previous lower-body injury that held him out of 17 contests. Sergachev was admittedly devasted to see his entire season halted at just 34 games, with two goals and 17 assists. And clearly he was missed, not only by the Lightning players but the fans who welcomed him back warmly.
“Did you hear the introduction? The roar just kept going on,” Cooper said. “All the guys on our bench got up. It was a stirring moment and I thought we carried that right into the first period.”
Cooper had no hesitation either inserting Sergachev immediately into an elimination game. Regardless of Sergachev potentially being rusty — or the high stakes at hand — Cooper knew his defenseman was a lock for the lineup.
“You can tell when a player is ready and when a player is not ready,” Cooper said. “Yesterday, we knew he was ready. I just wanted to check the box today when he showed up. I’ve seen it time and time again. It’s the look in the eye. He was a believer.”
Tampa Bay will continue to believe as well that its playoff run won’t end in Monday’s Game 5 — especially not with Sergachev now along for the ride.
“It was phenomenal,” defenseman Victor Hedman said of having Sergachev in the mix. “We’ve watched from close up how hard he’s worked to get to this day. Super impressed by the way he played. Big momentum boost for the guys. It’s huge.”
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Fierceness was named the 5-2 morning-line favorite for the 150th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs and will look to make history in next Saturday’s milestone race as the first entrant to win from the No. 17 post position in 45 attempts.
The Todd Pletcher-trained colt enters the 1¼-mile opening leg of the Triple Crown races on May 4 off a dominating 13½-length win in last month’s Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park and has a third-place finish as a 3-year-old. Fierceness aims to give the Hall of Fame trainer his third Derby win and first since 2017 with Always Dreaming.
Coming just a year after Pletcher-trained Derby favorite Forte was scratched hours before the race with a bruised right foot, Fierceness owner Mike Repole said he is glad to have another top choice, even with history working against the post position.
“We’re in a great spot,” Repole said. “If you could draw it up, you want to be somewhere outside and you don’t want the speed inside. It’s blessed, couldn’t have asked for a better (post) for us other than we found out that (No.) 17 is 0 for 44. And I’m 0 for 9, so we’re 0 for 53 combined, but we’re OK.”
Also, Brad Cox-trained filly Tarifa is the 7-2 morning-line favorite for Friday’s Kentucky Oaks after drawing the No. 8 post.
Sierra Leone, whose 155 points led the Derby qualifying trail, drew the No. 2 post as the 3-1 second choice for the $5 million Grade I premier race for 3-year-olds. The son of Gun Runner and Heavenly Love by Malibu Moon has rallied from deep in the field to win both starts this year including a thrilling trip in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland three weeks ago, which followed a testy entry to the gate.
“He’s just a touch farther in than I wanted but he didn’t get the 1 hole, so I’m OK with that,” said trainer Chad Brown, whose other Derby entry, Domestic Product, drew the No. 15 post at 30-1 odds.
Catching Freedom is the 8-1 third Derby choice from the No. 14 post and will aim to give Cox his first outright Derby victory after Mandaloun was named the 2021 Derby winner following the disqualification of deceased colt Medina Spirit for a failed postrace drug test.
Tarifa will start Friday’s Oaks from the No. 8 post as the 7-2 favorite. She has won all three starts this season to lead the Oaks trail with 150 points and has won four of five lifetime starts while earning $456,000. The dark brown filly will attempt to give Louisville-born Cox his third Oaks win and first since 2020 with Shedaresthedevil.
“Very happy with how she’s coming into it,” Cox said of Tarifa. “I need her to settle. (Jockey) Flavien (Prat) knows her now, rode her in her last two, and he’s had opportunity to breeze her the last two weeks. Hopefully, she gets away well, gets a good, clean trip, and I think she’s gonna like the mile and an eighth.”
Just F Y I, trained by Hall of Famer and four-time Eclipse winner Bill Mott, is the 9-2 second choice in Friday’s $1.5 million Oaks and will start from the No. 13 post. Pletcher-trained filly Leslie’s Rose is the 4-1 third choice from the far No. 14 post, looking to follow up her win in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland on April 5.
The draw was held on opening night of Churchill Downs’ spring meet for the first time and a week ahead of the milestone race, two days earlier than in recent years.
Post time for the Derby is 6:57 p.m. ET. Friday’s Oaks is scheduled for a 5:51 p.m. post.
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