The winter of the epic contract: How decade-plus MLB megadeals suddenly became a thing
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Alden Gonzalez
CloseESPN Staff Writer- ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.
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Jesse Rogers
Christmas is still ahead of us, and yet the baseball industry has already spent in record numbers and signed away most of the best available players. Twenty-four of the top 25 free agents, as ranked by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel in early November, have already chosen new teams, signing deals totaling close to $2.8 billion.
But it isn’t just the amount of money that is jarring — it’s the length of time teams are willing to pay it.
In the history of MLB free agency, only four players have received deals that have extended beyond 10 years — and three of those came this month. Trea Turner agreed to an 11-year, $300 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies on Dec. 5, Xander Bogaerts got 11 years and $280 million from the San Diego Padres on Dec. 8 and Carlos Correa landed with the New York Mets on a 12-year, $315 million contract — one week after agreeing to a 13-year, $350 million deal with the San Francisco Giants that fell apart over a disagreement about his physical.
Turner and Bogaerts will be paid through their age-40 seasons. Correa and Aaron Judge, who accepted a nine-year, $360 million contract to return to the New York Yankees, are locked up through age 39.
The idea of signing a player for a decade or more on a deal that will almost certainly take him to the very end of his career seems counterintuitive to modern roster construction. Front offices are smarter, more analytically minded than ever, hyper-focused on efficiency and well-schooled on the deficiencies of players in their mid to late 30s. The sport itself, proliferated by devastating breaking balls and triple-digit fastballs, has never been more unkind to the slower reaction times of those approaching middle age. And yet teams are handing out long-term contracts like never before. Ten of the past 11 deals signed for 10 or more years have come since 2019, and this offseason has taken that approach to a new level.
What gives? ESPN spoke to more than a dozen people in the industry, most of them executives and agents, in an effort to figure out why prolonged contracts are suddenly the rage. Three main theories emerged.
Lower AAVs are valuable
The most popular reason given to explain the plethora of long-term deals was simply that lengthening out a contract is an easy way to minimize present-day costs.
One in particular embodied that sentiment: Bryce Harper‘s 13-year, $330 million agreement with the Phillies, obtained near the end of February in 2019. Harper, represented by Scott Boras, perceivably entered free agency with a desire to top Giancarlo Stanton‘s $325 million extension and thus set a record for total guarantee. To attain it, he accepted a lower average annual value, of about $25 million, which in turn helped the Phillies reduce the deal’s year-to-year impact on the luxury tax. (AAV, not year-to-year salary, is used to calculate where teams reside in relation to the luxury tax threshold.)
Harper’s deal lies in stark contrast with the short-term, high-AAV deals that have also populated the industry in recent years, obtained by Trevor Bauer (three years and $102 million from the Los Angeles Dodgers), Max Scherzer (three years and $130 million from the Mets) and Justin Verlander (two years and $86.7 million from the Mets). Those deals drove up prices; Harper’s provided an alternate path for players who sought to cash in similarly.
“I think for a period of time, agents weren’t really letting that be on the table and were focused on the AAV,” an assistant general manager said. “So now there are opportunities for higher AAVs and opportunities for longer deals. Before, no one was doing the Verlander contract, so the only path was the deals that were signed.”
Correa has lived both worlds, obtaining a $35.1 million AAV on a short-term deal with the Minnesota Twins last year, then opting out and ultimately getting $315 million from the Mets. As one agent said: “This is really about the luxury tax.”
The new collective bargaining agreement included a relatively large increase in the luxury tax threshold, jumping nearly 10% from 2021 to 2022. But the repercussions were also stiffer, with a fourth tier introduced and other draft-related penalties looming. Teams now have more room to maneuver, but also a desire to maintain the flexibility to get back under the threshold and avoid escalating repeater penalties.
The luxury tax threshold is $233 million for the 2023 season, a $23 million increase from where it stood as recently as 2021, with an overage rate of 20%. But the rates multiply significantly depending on the amount teams go over by and how many consecutive years they do so, getting as high as 110%. Teams can also be stripped of draft picks and lose international-bonus-pool money. It has prompted them to pivot. A recent FanGraphs article also made the point that the nation’s economy, specifically federal interest rates, has motivated teams to stretch dollars out into future years.
The contracts for Correa, Turner and Bogaerts all rank within the top 15 all-time in total value — but none are within the top 25 in AAV.
“Rates are going up, and it makes sense to stretch out this money over time,” another agent said. “Teams can do some savvy financial work on the back end to cover the financial implications of the future costs of the contract. But also, stretching out the deals and lowering the AAV allows teams to have more flexibility under the new CBT thresholds, especially if they go up. The back end of deals are essentially all deferred money. Teams know they are eating the last few years of the contract.”
Players are starting earlier, potentially aging better
The combination of getting to free agency earlier and theoretically, with the help of modern technology, maintaining production at an older age, could be as important as anything in the discussion of long-term contracts. In the past, achieving the six years of service time required for free agency often meant players hit the open market in their 30s. But players — especially star-caliber prospects — often are matriculating through minor league systems at a faster rate, debuting in the majors earlier and therefore becoming free agents sooner.
The past three offseasons have seen 581 players become free agents before turning 30, according to research by ESPN Stats & Information. If you go back nearly a decade, to the three-year span from 2012 to 2014, that number was only 182. The game, in essence, keeps getting younger. Correa (28) and Turner (29) have yet to reach their 30s. When Shohei Ohtani reaches free agency next offseason, he’ll be 29. When Juan Soto follows two years later, he’ll be 26. They, too, might attain decade-plus-long contracts.
“There happens to be a bunch of really good players that happen to be young for free agents,” another assistant GM said. “That’s helping teams feel OK about it. Players aren’t spending a full year at every level. The system is getting them to the big leagues quicker and to free agency earlier. Giving out a decade-long contract — or even longer — at 28 or even 29 is much different than at 31 or 32. Players can perform at 40 or 41, especially with the [designated hitter] in both leagues. Maybe not as much at 43 or 45.”
The universal DH is certainly a factor, giving 15 additional teams — including the three to hand out 11-plus-year contracts this offseason — a chance to preserve players in their late 30s and early 40s. But the jury is still out on whether the production will ultimately hold up. Two of our most recent examples of mega-contracts saw Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols — before a 2022 renaissance — fade aggressively in the tail ends of their Hall of Fame careers. Eventually the same might be said for the likes of Judge, Correa, Turner and Bogaerts. But some of the sharpest minds in the industry are banking on their teams’ abilities to extend players’ primes through science and nutrition.
“We as an industry I think have gotten pretty sophisticated — whether that’s a good thing or not others can decide — about aging curves and projections and things like that,” Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said from the general managers meetings in November.
“Also just think about strength and conditioning, nutrition, all these areas — there’s been a lot of advancements, not just baseball-wise but across all sports. And using aging curves from 10, 20 years ago versus what players have access to now, you have to ask how relevant it is.”
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski echoed similar thoughts shortly after signing Turner for 11 years.
“We feel players have a better chance to play at later ages,” Dombrowski wrote in an email. “Our ability to work with players on conditioning methods, nutrition, physical fitness is so much better these days, and the players’ focus on achieving longer playing careers is extremely important.”
‘The Cohen Effect’
In the two years since Steve Cohen assumed control of the Mets, a theory has continued to circulate the industry: If they could do it over again, some rival owners would reconsider approving him. It’s clear to see why.
Under Cohen, the Mets’ competitive balance tax payroll has skyrocketed, finishing at about $295 million in 2022 and, after the Correa signing, trending in the neighborhood of $380 million in 2023. Cohen’s unmitigated aggressiveness, coupled with similar motivations by Padres chairman Peter Seidler and Phillies CEO John Middleton, has helped drive up the prices on free agents, and some believe it has pushed teams to spend at unprecedented rates.
In the words of one agent, “The right owners are in the mix for the World Series.”
“I think the market is correcting itself towards our side as owners get more competitive,” another agent said. “Call it ‘The Cohen Effect.’ Teams have to keep up with the arms race. With the new CBA, inflation, new revenue streams and three aggressive owners, the contracts are going up.”
In the offseasons that followed the 2016 to 2020 campaigns, teams spent an average of $1.6 billion per year on free agents, according to numbers maintained by Spotrac. Last year, that number rose to $3.2 billion. This year, it’s already at $3.5 billion.
“This is what we’ve been wanting for a while now,” one player involved in past labor issues wrote in a text message. “Now imagine if we can get all 30 teams to participate for the top players. A few owners are raising the top of the market. Hopefully the trickle-down continues.”
It might all be a product of ideal timing, the right owners reaching the ideal point in their franchises’ trajectories and capitalizing on a free agent market that is particularly flush with star talent.
This trend, like the others, might not last.
But look at teams such as the Giants and the Chicago Cubs, both of whom seem at least a year away from legitimate contention but have chased top-tier free agents nonetheless (the Giants famously whiffed on Judge and Correa, but the Cubs signed Dansby Swanson to a seven-year, $177 million contract that also exceeded industry expectations). Or the Texas Rangers, committing a combined $500 million to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien coming off a 102-loss season and then spending big again on Jacob deGrom this winter. Or the Phillies and Padres four years ago, locking up Harper and Manny Machado on $300 million-plus contracts to serve as the face of their next championship window.
Revenue reached $11 billion last year, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said during the World Series. The sale of the remaining stake in BamTech outfitted each owner with an additional $30 million and online gambling has brought in a major stream of new revenue. High-salary long-term deals have a history of ending poorly, and yet they’ve never been more popular.
One longtime scout might have explained it best with one sentence:
“Owners have so much money.”
The first 12-team College Football Playoff is down to the final two contenders: Notre Dame and Ohio State.
The seventh-seeded Fighting Irish and eighth-seeded Buckeyes will meet Jan. 20 at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T. Whichever team wins will end a championship drought. Notre Dame aims for its first title since 1988. Ohio State’s lull isn’t nearly as long, as the Buckeyes won the first CFP championship a decade ago, but given how consistently elite they are, it seems like a while.
Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman and Ohio State’s Ryan Day are also aiming for their first championships as head coaches, and Freeman’s past will be in the spotlight. Freeman and the Irish lost to the Buckeyes and Day in each of the past two seasons. But after a masterful coaching job this season, Freeman now will face his alma mater — he was an All-Big Ten linebacker for Ohio State under coach Jim Tressel — with everything on the line. Day, meanwhile, can secure the loftiest goal for a team that fell short of earlier ones, but never stopped swinging.
Here’s your first look at the championship matchup and what to expect in the ATL. — Adam Rittenberg
When: Jan. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in the semifinal: Notre Dame’s resilience and situational awareness/execution are undeniably its signature traits and could propel the team to a title. The Irish have overcome injuries all season and did so again against Penn State. They also erased two deficits and continued to hold the edge in the “middle eight” — the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half — while dominating third down on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame can rely on front men such as quarterback Riley Leonard, running back Jeremiyah Love and linebacker Jack Kiser, but also on backup QB Steve Angeli, wide receiver Jaden Greathouse and kicker Mitch Jeter. These Irish fight, and they’re very hard to knock out.
X factor: Greathouse entered Thursday with moderate numbers — 29 receptions, 359 yards, one touchdown — and had only three total catches for 14 yards in the first two CFP games. But he recorded career highs in both receptions (7) and receiving yards (105) and tied the score on a 54-yard touchdown with 4:38 to play. A Notre Dame offense looking for more from its wide receivers, especially downfield, could lean more on Greathouse, who exceeded his receptions total from the previous five games but might be finding his groove at the perfect time. He also came up huge in the clutch, recording all but six of his receiving yards in the second half.
How Notre Dame wins: The Irish won’t have the talent edge in Atlanta, partly because they’ve lost several stars to season-ending injuries, but they have the right traits to hang with any opponent. Notre Dame needs contributions in all three phases and must continue to sprinkle in downfield passes, an element offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has pushed. And they finally did start seeing results against Penn State. The Irish likely can’t afford to lose the turnover margin, although they can help themselves by replicating their third-down brilliance — 11 of 17 conversions on offense, 3 of 11 conversions allowed on defense — from the Penn State win. — Rittenberg
What we learned in the semifinal: The Buckeyes have a defense with championship mettle, headlined by senior defensive end Jack Sawyer, who delivered one of the biggest defensive plays in Ohio State history. On fourth-and-goal with just over two minutes remaining, Sawyer sacked Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, forcing a fumble that he scooped up and raced 83 yards for a game-clinching touchdown, propelling Ohio State to the national title game. The Buckeyes weren’t perfect in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, and they struggled offensively for much of the night against a talented Texas defense. But Ohio State showed late why its defense is arguably the best in college football, too.
X factor: The play two snaps before the Sawyer scoop-and-score set the table. On second-and-goal from the Ohio State 1-yard line, unheralded senior safety Lathan Ransom dashed past incoming blockers and dropped Texas running back Quintrevion Wisner for a 7-yard loss. After an incomplete pass, the Longhorns were forced into desperation mode on fourth-and-goal down a touchdown with just over two minutes remaining. All-American safety Caleb Downs, who had an interception on Texas’ ensuing drive, rightfully gets all the headlines for the Ohio State secondary. But the Buckeyes have other veteran standouts such as Ransom throughout their defense.
How Ohio State wins: Texas took away Ohio State’s top offensive playmaker, true freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who had only one reception for 3 yards on three targets. As the first two playoff games underscored, the Buckeyes offense is at its best when Smith gets the ball early and often. Notre Dame is sure to emulate the Texas blueprint, positioning the defensive backs to challenge Smith. Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has to counter with a plan that finds ways to get the ball into Smith’s hands, no matter what the Fighting Irish do. — Jake Trotter
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Adam Rittenberg, ESPN Senior Writer
MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — Of all the players gathered outside Notre Dame‘s locker room late Thursday night recapping a historic win, offensive lineman Charles Jagusah might have been the unlikeliest to be standing there.
Jagusah wasn’t supposed to be in uniform at Hard Rock Stadium, recounting his performance in Notre Dame’s 27-24 victory against Penn State in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl. After he tore a pectoral muscle early in training camp, his season had been declared over before it could truly begin. The injury to Jagusah, projected as the team’s starting left tackle, was Notre Dame’s first major health setback, but would be nowhere near its last.
The only way Jagusah would have a chance to contribute this season would be for Notre Dame to reach the CFP and make a deep run. For that to happen, the Irish would need to overcome a staggering amount of injuries, some season-ending, to players who, unlike Jagusah, would have no chance of returning. The injury wave didn’t spare the offense or defense, and it hit some of the team’s biggest stars as well as important role players.
“Losing-sleep injuries,” defensive coordinator Al Golden called them. “You’re talking about massive players.”
But none has been massive enough to divert Notre Dame from its playoff push, which will continue Monday night in Atlanta against Ohio State in the CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T.
Most teams that make a run as deep as Notre Dame’s point to a decent-sized dose of good fortune. But when it came to injuries, the Irish had very little luck on their side. So how did they get all the way to the national championship game?
AFTER A TUESDAY practice in November, ahead of Notre Dame’s game with Army at Yankee Stadium, Golden knew he was seeing a first in his 30-year coaching career.
“I have not been a part of anything where we lost the caliber of guys that we’ve lost,” he told ESPN. “It just speaks to the leadership of Coach [Marcus] Freeman, the leadership of our captains and the unity of the group. Obviously it’s been next man up for quite some time.”
Every player and coach in college football cites a “next man up” mentality, recognizing its necessity and inevitability in a violent sport, but also making the reference with their fingers crossed. Those same coaches and players know that most injury-plagued teams are eventually sunk, unable to plug all the holes.
Jagusah was the first significant setback for Notre Dame, but others followed. The team responded to its Week 2 home loss to Northern Illinois by thrashing Purdue 66-7 in West Lafayette, but the victory came at a cost. Starting center Ashton Craig tore his left ACL, while Jordan Botelho, a starter at the vyper defensive end spot, suffered a right knee injury. They went out on consecutive series in the second quarter.
Boubacar Traore stepped up in Botelho’s absence and led Notre Dame in sacks (three) and tackles for loss (five) by the end of September. But the redshirt freshman injured his left knee in a Week 5 win over Louisville and was lost for the season.
The biggest injury loss came two weeks later, as cornerback Benjamin Morrison, a freshman All-America selection in 2022 who earned second-team AP All-America honors in 2023 and was a semifinalist for the Thorpe Award, sustained a hip injury against Stanford. He also needed surgery and would be out for the season.
“You’re talking about some of the best at their positions,” Golden said. “And then some of the younger guys, you don’t know how good they’re going to be, but they’re going to be good, Boubacar and obviously Jordan Botelho.”
As the injuries on defense piled up, linebacker Jack Kiser felt a mix of sympathy and resolve. Some units would melt down, or at least regress, after losing a playmaker like Morrison, but not Notre Dame.
“I don’t think that’s ever even been an option for this program,” Kiser said. “It’s always been, ‘Hey, we’re devastated if someone got an injury, but someone has an opportunity. Can you elevate this team and make this team better and take advantage of that opportunity?'”
The answer, repeatedly and resoundingly, has been yes. True freshman cornerback Leonard Moore, a three-star recruit, entered the lineup for Morrison and now leads the team in pass breakups, while adding two forced fumbles and two interceptions.
Junior Tuihalamaka and Donovan Hinish, who each had only 10 tackles in 2023, stepped into bigger roles on the line. They have combined for 68 tackles, 7.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss.
“There really wasn’t a point where someone went down, where I was like, ‘Ah, we’re done,'” standout safety Xavier Watts said. “I’ve got the confidence in all of my teammates.”
A Notre Dame defense hammered by injuries has been the biggest reason behind the team’s national title push. The Irish lead the nation in takeaways with 32 and rank second nationally in points allowed at 14.3 per game, trailing only Ohio State.
“Just press forward,” Golden said of the team’s philosophy. “Don’t bitch, don’t make excuses, and next guy, carry the flag.”
SHORTLY BEFORE SURGERY to repair his pectoral muscle, Jagusah met with Freeman, who told the second-year player that he could be available for a potential CFP run if Notre Dame made the field for the first time in four seasons.
“At first it kind of didn’t feel realistic, but as I got closer and closer, I just kept pushing, and I’m like, ‘Yeah, I can do this,'” Jagusah said. “It’s a credit to everybody for keeping me engaged.”
As the team played into mid-December, then late December, then early January, Jagusah’s chances to not just see the field but log meaningful snaps increased. There he was at the Orange Bowl, playing guard instead of tackle, filling in for injured starter Rocco Spindler. Like others had done in replacing those lost to injury, Jagusah stepped up, pulling to clear out defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton on quarterback Riley Leonard‘s touchdown run, and decleating Penn State safety Jaylen Reed on another pull.
“It shows you how much credit my teammates deserve,” Jagusah said. “In the grand scheme of things, I didn’t really do much today. They got us here. They did all the heavy lifting, everybody, all year long, grinding, and I get to reap the rewards.”
Jagusah’s preseason injury began what has been a season-long shuffle for Notre Dame’s offensive line. Craig started the first three games before his injury, which prompted Pat Coogan, who started throughout the 2023 season at left guard but entered this fall as a backup, to take over at center. At guard, Billy Schrauth has started games at both spots, with Spindler and Sam Pendleton also earning starts.
Notre Dame had stability at tackle with Aamil Wagner on the right side and Anthonie Knapp, a true freshman who emerged following Jagusah’s injury, on the left. Jagusah made his season debut on special teams against Georgia in the CFP quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl, then replaced Spindler against Penn State.
“Coach Freeman always says the future is uncertain, so you can’t worry about the future,” Jagusah said. “Sure, we’ve had weeks where a lot of guys are banged up and you’re thinking, ‘Oh, crap, how are we going to make this work?’ But it’s about preparing every single day. Whatever five guys we put out there, they’re all going to do great.”
Jagusah’s story underscores how Notre Dame’s roster depth and resilience have been tested, even during the CFP. Notre Dame’s first highlight came from Jeremiyah Love, who raced 98 yards to the end zone in a first-round game against Indiana. Love had injured his right knee in the regular-season finale at USC and had been battling an upper-respiratory bug in the days leading up to the Indiana contest. But he still delivered the longest run in CFP history.
The Irish beat Indiana 27-17, a score closer than the game actually was, but also lost defensive tackle Rylie Mills, their leader in sacks (7.5) and tackles for loss (8.5), to a season-ending knee injury. Mills had propped up a line that had lost Botelho and Traore, as well as starting tackle Howard Cross III, a second-team AP All-America selection in 2023, for most of November.
In the CFP semifinals, Notre Dame trailed Penn State 10-0 when Leonard’s head hit the turf, sending him to the injury tent to be evaluated for a potential concussion. Backup quarterback Steve Angeli, who hadn’t played outside of mop-up time all season, came in and hit his first five pass attempts, helping set up a field goal before halftime.
Love’s status for the semifinal had been in doubt after he aggravated his knee injury against Georgia and left the game in the third quarter. Despite wearing a brace, Love gave Notre Dame its first lead with one of the more iconic runs in recent school history, wrestling free of four Penn State defenders and reaching the ball across the goal line. He later showcased his signature hurdle in elevating over Penn State’s Kobe King.
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Jeremiyah Love refuses to go down on a Notre Dame TD
Jeremiyah Love breaks multiple tackles to give Notre Dame a 17-10 lead over Penn State.
Notre Dame fittingly won the game on a field goal by Mitch Jeter, who played through a hip injury for much of the season, missed two attempts in the Northern Illinois loss and hit just 1 of 5 attempts in the final five regular-season games.
“I don’t think that me or this team would be where we are without all those trials and tribulations, injuries and sicknesses and all that type of stuff,” Love said. “Everybody on this team is relentless. [Me] playing through injury, playing when I was sick, anybody on this team will do that same thing because we love each other.”
EVERY TEAM EMPHASIZES relentlessness and resilience, and players stepping up for each other. But what separates the Irish, who have actually delivered on those promises, from teams that can’t follow through?
“It’s because we’ve been at the very bottom of the bowl,” Kiser said. “We’ve been as deep as you can be, and felt the biggest pain that a team could feel, and it brought us closer. We understand how to face adversity now because of it.”
Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois was a setback that, during the four-team playoff era, almost certainly would have eliminated the Irish from consideration. The result also brought back memories of Freeman’s first season, which included home losses to Marshall and Stanford.
But rather than letting the NIU loss carry over, or fretting about what it could mean down the line, Notre Dame strung together wins, even while losing key players.
“You better live your life six inches in front of your face,” offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock said. “Coach Freeman brings it up a lot: Win the interval. Just win this interval — this, right here. We’ve been able to maintain that mentality, regardless of the amount of chaos that’s going around.”
In the afterglow of the Penn State victory, Golden said Notre Dame “needed every little bit of that mettle to win that game.” The Irish will need more, though, to beat an Ohio State team with a talent edge and few major injuries outside of its offensive line.
Knapp sustained a high ankle sprain against Penn State that will keep him out for the championship game. Spindler’s outlook is more promising but not fully known, Freeman said Sunday. Jagusah likely will have a significant role against Ohio State, perhaps at the position he was pegged to play back in the summer.
The Irish are used to playing without a full deck. Whoever takes the field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium will, in their eyes, be enough to win a championship.
“This is a tough football team,” Denbrock said after the Penn State win, standing several feet from Jagusah. “They just keep playing. They don’t flinch, they don’t care what the circumstances are. God bless ’em, it’s fun to be a part of.”
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