Field Marshal Montgomery famously said in the Second World War that “if we lose the war in the air, we lose the war, and we lose it very quickly”.
Given Russia‘s significant air power (AP) advantage over Ukraine, why has the Russian Air Force (RuAF) failed to capitalise, and would the provision of Western fighter jets to Kyiv prove decisive?
AP is a complex suite of capabilities. The Russian surface-to-air missiles (SAM) systems provide layered defence, and military aircraft with modern long-range air-to-air missiles, airborne radar systems, electronic warfare assets, and a range of intelligence and support aircraft (including air-to-air refuelling) present a compelling potential capability.
However, the Ukrainian air defence system continues to provide a very hostile environment for the RuAF.
To date, 130 Russian aircraft have been lost over Ukraine (10% of available assets). And since most of the military aircraft over Ukraine are RuAF, the Ukrainian land forces consider any military aircraft a threat – “if it flies, it dies”.
As a result, a major threat to Ukraine’s own fighter jets is inadvertently being shot down by their own soldiers.
Image: Russian Su-35 hit by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kharkiv
Most Western military analysts believe air power would swiftly overwhelm Russian defences and prove decisive.
However, there is no legal mandate for NATO to engage, and no evident appetite from any individual nations to commit combatants to a war with Russia.
So, if the West cannot supply air power capability, how best to equip and enable Ukraine to do so itself?
Fighter jets are incredibly capable, but also extremely complex.
Although Ukrainian fighter pilots are frustrated with their near-obsolete Soviet-era MIGs, providing them with modern F-16s or similar would not address Ukraine’s medium-term capability needs.
In time, the Ukrainian pilots could learn how to operate the Western aircraft and associated complex equipment.
But that would not address the other vital elements of air power capability required to translate a complex fast-jet aircraft into a battle winning capability.
As a result, the fighter jets would be vulnerable, which in turn would risk emboldening the RuAF.
Image: Two Polish Air Force Russian made Mig 29s. Pic: AP/Alik Keplicz
A more pragmatic (and timely) approach might be to consider upgrading Ukraine’s MIG-29 fighters with modern radars, weapons and air-to-air missiles – the platforms and tactics are familiar, and the technology could prove decisive.
Hollywood films such as Top Gun might have immortalised the role of the fighter aircraft, but in reality, AP is very much a team sport.
President Zelensky is right to recognise the decisive capability that AP could provide, but there are numerous more effective ways to deliver decisive war fighting capability to Ukraine than gifting fighter jets.
Sir Keir Starmer is under mounting pressure to raise Israel’s bombardment of Gaza with Donald Trump during his UK state visit, after a UN Commission said a genocide was taking place.
Sir Ed, who is boycotting the state dinner being held for Mr Trump, said Sir Keir must “press” the president now.
He said: “What is happening in Gaza is a genocide. And the president of the United States, who wants a Nobel Peace Prize, is doing nothing to stop it.”
Image: Displaced Palestinians flee northern Gaza. Pic: AP
Israel‘s foreign ministry said it “categorically rejects this distorted and false report” and called for the commission to be abolished.
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3:05
Is Israel committing genocide?
‘We cannot be bystanders’
Reports suggest the situation will be a talking point between Sir Keir and Mr Trump during his visit.
It comes before the UK is due to recognise a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly later this month, along with allies including Canada and France.
In a late night statement, Canada’s foreign ministry described the Gaza City offensive as “horrific”.
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed added: “We have long said that Hamas is genocidal and condemned them for their actions.
“Now, I think we have to say that what the Netanyahu government is doing amounts to genocide.”
Labour MP Rosena Allin-Khan, a former shadow minister, also called on her party leader to make discussing the situation in Gaza with Mr Trump a “top priority”.
Speaking to Sky News’ Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge, she said: “We say ‘never again’ when we look at Bosnia and Rwanda, but here we are again, and it’s been livestreamed, and we’ve all seen it.
“We cannot be bystanders to a genocide.”
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8:51
‘We cannot be bystanders’
UN report pulls no punches
The accusation of genocide is made by the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory.
It alleges Israel has been “killing Palestinians or forcing them to live in inhumane conditions that led to death; causing serious bodily or mental harm, including through torture, displacement and sexual crime; deliberately imposing inhumane conditions, and fourthly, imposing measures intending to prevent births”.
Earlier this month, the International Association of Genocide Scholars also passed a resolution stating that Israel’s conduct passed the threshold of committing genocide.
However, a report from the British government said it had “not concluded” that Israel intended to “destroy in whole or in part a national, ethnic, racial or religious group”.
Nearly 65,000 people are now believed to have died, according to figures collated by Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry. It does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.
As the Israeli army advances on Gaza City, thousands of families remain in the city’s crowded tent camps.
Sky News analysis of satellite imagery taken on Monday 15 September shows tent camps stretching across the western half of the city.
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A close-up view shows one camp spilling out on to the city’s beaches.
Image: Tents on the Gaza City beachfront on 15 September 2025. Pic: Planet Labs PBC
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) launched its ground assault overnight on Tuesday 16 September, in what the military said was a “new phase” in its offensive.
“Gaza is burning,” defence minister Israel Katz posted on X as the operation began. “IDF soldiers are fighting bravely to create the conditions for the release of the hostages and the defeat of Hamas.”
UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper described the offensive as “utterly reckless and appalling”, adding that it “will only bring more bloodshed, kill more innocent civilians & endanger the remaining hostages”.
Footage verified by Sky News shows Israeli tanks entering the Gaza Strip from the north overnight on Tuesday.
Israeli soldiers later filmed themselves in an area just north of Gaza City.
Satellite imagery taken a day earlier shows that while some tent camps in the area have been abandoned in the past few days, many others have not.
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The IDF advance comes after an intense week of airstrikes targeting buildings in Gaza City. Sky News has verified dozens of videos showing strikes on buildings across the city.
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Several of these strikes destroyed entire tower blocks, such as this strike on Al Ghafari Tower.
At least 50 people were killed across the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, health officials said, most of them in Gaza City.
The IDF said it estimated 40% of people in Gaza City had fled south, while Hamas said that only 190,000 out of 1.3 million residents had left (15%).
An evacuation order for the entire city was first issued on 9 September, with a map on 13 September instructing Palestinians to flee to what Israel has designated a “humanitarian area” along a stretch of sandy coastline known as Al Mawasi.
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Satellite imagery from Sunday 14 September shows that the area is already crowded with tents.
Image: Tents in the IDF-designated Al Mawasi humanitarian zone on 14 September 2025. Pic: Planet Labs PBC
Last week, the UN’s Gaza humanitarian country team said that “neither the size nor scale of services provided is fit to support those already there, let alone new arrivals”.
Those fleeing south face a journey of at least 15km (9.3 miles), much of it through Israeli-designated combat zones. Local health officials said at least one vehicle travelling south from Gaza City had been hit by an Israeli strike.
Among those staying put on Tuesday was Um Mohammad, who lives in the Sabra neighbourhood of Gaza City.
“It is like escaping from death towards death, so we are not leaving,” she said.
The IDF says the next stage of the operation will involve both air and ground forces, and that the number of soldiers involved will increase over the coming days.
Additional reporting by Sam Doak, OSINT producer.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, according to a commission established by the United Nations.
The report claims “it is clear that there is an intent to destroy the Palestinians in Gaza” and says Israel’s actions meet the criteria set down for defining a genocide.
It is the first time that such an explosive allegation has been made publicly by a UN body, and is likely to be greeted with fury by the Israeli government.
Israel‘s Foreign Ministry said it “categorically rejects this distorted and false report” and called for the commission to be abolished.
“Three individuals serving as Hamas proxies, notorious for their openly antisemitic positions – and whose horrific statements about Jews have been condemned worldwide – released today another fake ‘report’ about Gaza,” it said in a statement.
“The report relies entirely on Hamas falsehoods, laundered and repeated by others. These fabrications have already been thoroughly debunked.”
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The accusation of genocide is made by the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory.
Image: Smoke rises from Gaza after an explosion. Pic: Reuters
The commission, which has been studying the conduct of Israel since the Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023, has concluded that Israel has committed four of the five acts laid out in the Genocide Convention.
It alleges Israel has been killing Palestinians or forcing them to live in inhumane conditions that led to death; causing serious bodily or mental harm, including through torture, displacement and sexual crime; deliberately imposing inhumane conditions, and fourthly, imposing measures intending to prevent births.
This final claim is linked to an attack on the Al-Basma IVF clinic, which the commission claims destroyed around 4,000 embryos and a further 1,000 sperm samples.
The report claims Israel has “flagrantly” ignored “numerous warnings” over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and has set out to “destroy the healthcare system in Gaza”.
It also alleges that Israeli military personnel have carried out sexual and gender-based violence, including “rape and sexualised torture”, as part of “a pattern of collective punishment”, and accuses Israeli forces of deliberately targeting some children “with the intention to kill them”.
Image: Benjamin Netanyahu at a joint press conference with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Pic: AP
Although other UN bodies and personnel have previously linked Israel’s actions with allegations of genocide, this is the first time that any UN body has claimed to have made a definitive judgment.
“The responsibility for these atrocity crimes lies with the Israeli authorities at the highest echelons,” said Navi Pillay, the chair of the commission.
Within the report, it concludes that “Israeli President Isaac Herzog, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, have incited the commission of genocide”.
Nearly 65,000 people are now believed to have died, according to figures collated by Gaza’s health ministry. It does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.
The commission claims that a majority of these are women, children and elderly people.
The commission says it is now looking at further evidence against other individuals accused of inciting genocide.
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Last year, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants against both Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant for allegedly committing the war crime of using starvation as a method of warfare and also for war crimes during the Gaza conflict.
Mr Netanyahu described the warrants as “antisemitic”, while a sense of outrage echoed across much of the political spectrum in Israel.
Then US President Joe Biden called the warrants “outrageous”; his successor, Donald Trump, issued an executive order to introduce sanctions against personnel from the ICC, while inviting Netanyahu to the White House.
It is hard to believe that either Israel or the US will be any more accepting of this report. Israel has long claimed that the UN is biased against it and is more liable to criticise Israel than any other nation.
Image: Marco Rubio speaks to media as he leaves Tel Aviv for Qatar. Pic: Reuters
The US, which offered a rare, if mild, rebuke to Mr Netanyahu after he launched an attack on Hamas officials in Qatar last week, has since sent Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Jerusalem as a sign of solidarity.
The commission has asked for nations to stop supplying Israel with weapons and says states have a “legal obligation” to do everything within their power “to stop the genocide in Gaza”.
It also calls on Israel to immediately allow “unhindered” access for internationally recognised aid agencies, including the UN.
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1:55
Does the UK think there’s a genocide in Gaza?
It wants the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), set up earlier this year by Israel with American help, in order to distribute aid, to be shut down.
Hundreds of people have been killed around GHF sites, while a separate UN-backed body has said that parts of Gaza have been designated as suffering from famine.
Israel denies this – a senior military leader told me that “it is a pure, total lie – there is enough food for everyone”. It claims that the UN relied on faulty data and Hamas propaganda.
This latest UN report is likely to be met with similar claims.
Earlier this month, the International Association of Genocide Scholars passed a resolution stating that Israel’s conduct passed the threshold of committing genocide.
However, a report from the British government said it had “not concluded” that Israel intended to “destroy in whole or in part a national, ethnic, racial or religious group”.