Why Jimbo Fisher, Quinn Ewers and USC all have plenty to prove in 2023
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ESPN staff
Though we’re still quite a ways from the start of the 2023 college football season, we’re thinking about what will be stake for certain teams, players and coaches.
Can Texas A&M contend for a spot in the playoff like it did just a couple of years ago? Can DJ Uiagalelei make it work at Oregon State? Our reporters discuss who has the most to prove.
Who is the coach with the most to prove?
Alex Scarborough: It’s tempting to say Nick Saban here. Coming off a down season — by Alabama standards — Saban appears ready to change directions offensively by bringing in a more pro-style coordinator in Tommy Rees to replace Bill O’Brien. And rather than go with a young up-and-comer at defensive coordinator, Saban brought Kevin Steele back for a third time on staff. But does a coach with seven national championships have to prove anything? Perhaps not. So let’s stay in the SEC and look instead at a Saban disciple: Florida‘s Billy Napier, who had a rocky first season in Gainesville with a 6-7 record and a blowout loss to Oregon State in the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl. Replacing quarterback Anthony Richardson with Graham Mertz didn’t inspire a ton of confidence from fans. And then came the Jaden Rashada debacle as the four-star quarterback was released from his letter of intent after an NIL deal fell through, according to The Associated Press. Napier needs to find wins on the field and on the recruiting trail in order to get the program pointed back in the right direction.
Chris Low: This sort of has a Texas feel to it, as in Texas or Texas A&M. Texas’ Steve Sarkisian certainly has plenty to prove as he enters his third season with a 13-12 overall record. But this is Jimbo Fisher’s sixth season at Texas A&M, and the Aggies are coming off a disappointing 5-7 record a year after signing the top-rated class in college football. There has been a lot of turnover on Texas A&M’s roster with some of those “can’t-miss” prospects from a year ago transferring out. The Aggies have also dipped into the transfer portal, and the biggest offseason acquisition was offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino, who’s taking over the playcalling duties from Fisher. It’s a move Fisher hinted at last season and something he thinks will help his overall management of the program. The Aggies were on the cusp of making the College Football Playoff in 2020. They need a similar run in 2023, or the heat is going to turn up considerably on Fisher regardless of how many millions he would be owed if Texas A&M were to fire him.
Bill Connelly: What about Ryan Day? His Buckeyes have lost six games in four seasons and haven’t finished worse than sixth in the AP poll since 2013, but this feels like an inflection point of sorts in Columbus. Ohio State has been thumped by Michigan twice in a row, and while his defense improved overall under Jim Knowles — Day’s third coordinator in four years — it still gave up 500-plus yards and 40-plus points in each of the season-ending losses to Michigan and Georgia. At the same time, his team came closer than anyone else to beating Georgia in 2022 and should start out in the top three or so of the polls. The 2023 season represents both an opportunity and a threat. Ohio State could make serious noise in the national title race once again, or it could fall behind both Michigan and a rising Penn State in the Big Ten pecking order.
Mark Schlabach: Texas A&M isn’t paying Fisher $95 million to lose four games or more, but that’s exactly what he has done in four of his five seasons. The Aggies went 9-1 in the 2020 season, which was impacted by COVID-19, and they’ve got basically nothing else to show for it. Texas A&M is 17-9 the past two seasons combined, and Fisher’s teams are 23-18 against SEC competition during his tenure. Few FBS schools have spent more on coaching staff and facilities than the Aggies, and their collectives are doling out more money in NIL packages to recruits than just about anyone else. What do they have to show for it? The locker-room issues a year ago seemed a lot like the end of Fisher’s tenure at Florida State, which was an unmitigated disaster. Now, Fisher is bringing in former Arkansas and Louisville coach Bobby Petrino to fix things on offense, after several high-profile candidates turned down the job. That moves reeks of desperation.
Adam Rittenberg: Brent Venables waited a long time to become a head coach, before taking a potential dream job at Oklahoma. But his debut turned disastrous several weeks into the season, as Oklahoma lost by 31 to TCU and then 49-0 to rival Texas, its worst loss in the history of the Red River Showdown. The Sooners finished 6-7, enduring their most losses since 1998, the year before Bob Stoops arrived as coach. OU has had a few subpar seasons by its lofty standards but hasn’t gone two years without 10 wins since 1997 and 1998. Another noncontending team would raise some serious doubts about Venables as a head coach, especially with Oklahoma bound for the SEC in 2024. Venables is an exceptional coordinator and recruiter, and OU brought in an impressive haul of high school players and transfers. But the team will need results in Year 2, especially on defense, after allowing 30 points per game.
David M. Hale: I think the answer is Fisher, but there’s no lack of contenders for this honor, so instead I’ll make the case for Miami‘s Mario Cristobal. He’s in no danger of being fired if things don’t go well, but after an absolutely disastrous 2022, all that excitement and energy that surrounded his return to his alma mater could be completely wiped out with another down season. Cristobal did a lot of housecleaning this offseason, including an exodus of veterans into the portal and the departure of both coordinators (plus a host of other assistants). But he also brought in the ACC’s top recruiting class, landed some solid transfers, retained Tyler Van Dyke at QB and hired two intriguing coordinators in Shannon Dawson (offense) and Lance Guidry (defense), who promise to take both units in new directions. If 2023 goes well, Cristobal will be rightfully lauded for a quick rebuild and the “Miami is back” mantra will finally have some teeth to it. If not, the whole experiment could feel like it’s over just two years in.
Blake Baumgartner: The pressure and expectations placed on Mel Tucker ratcheted up exponentially the moment he put pen to paper on his $95 million contract extension at Michigan State. After going 11-2 with a Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl victory in 2021, the Spartans struggled in a 5-7 season last fall. Tucker has improved recruiting (high school and the transfer portal) to where it was in Mark Dantonio’s last few years. But player development, which was so key to Dantonio’s success (six 10-win seasons, three Big Ten titles, one College Football Playoff appearance), has to get better if Tucker intends on being more consistent in a conference that’s only going to get tougher with USC and UCLA joining the Big Ten.
Kyle Bonagura: There was a time, not too long ago, when Chip Kelly was considered a college football visionary and one of the best coaches in the sport. That’s why when he returned to UCLA after stints coaching the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers in the NFL, there was a widely held expectation for the Bruins to start realizing the potential that comes with existing in one of the most fertile recruiting regions in the country. It hasn’t happened. Last year was the Bruins’ best under Kelly and, yet, still disappointing: They finished with a loss in the Sun Bowl and a No. 21 ranking in the final AP poll.
What team has the most to prove?
Scarborough: Texas A&M’s struggles have been well documented, Alabama is looking to reassert its dominance and Auburn is starting over. But it’s another team in the SEC West that I feel still has a long way to go: LSU. Yes, the Tigers vastly outperformed expectations in Year 1 under Brian Kelly. They played solid, fundamental football and didn’t beat themselves. And of course they beat Alabama. But they were also wildly inconsistent. A week after beating the Tide, they went on the road and nearly lost to Arkansas. Then they lost inexplicably to Texas A&M, followed by a lopsided loss to Georgia. While they righted the ship and pummeled an overmatched Purdue team in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl, I found myself wondering whether LSU is really ready to take advantage of a division that’s in flux — especially with Alabama in transition. Will Jayden Daniels take the next step in his development and improve as a passer? The offense needs to be more dynamic. Can Harold Perkins Jr. be the player we saw late in the year and team up with a healthy Maason Smith to take the defense to the next level? It’s possible. There’s a lot of young talent on the roster, and it will be interesting to see how far Kelly and his staff can take the Tigers in Year 2.
Low: The 2023 season will be USC’s last in the Pac-12 before the Trojans join the Big Ten. Hard as it is to believe, USC hasn’t won a Pac-12 championship since 2017, and that’s the only one the Men of Troy have won going back to the 2008 season. There’s no way a school with USC’s resources, tradition and surrounding talent pool should experience that kind of championship drought, especially in its own league. And when it comes to the national picture, the Trojans have never been to the College Football Playoff and last played in the BCS national championship game in 2005. With Heisman Trophy quarterback Caleb Williams returning and Lincoln Riley entering his second season as coach, USC is out of excuses. The Trojans lost twice a year ago to Utah, the second time in the Pac-12 championship game. It’s time to get past that hurdle in 2023.
Connelly: There really is a lot to like about Penn State heading into 2023. After going just 11-11 in 2020-21, the Nittany Lions stormed back into the top 10 — their fourth such finish in seven years under James Franklin — and now they boast both proven talent and massive upside. Manny Diaz’s defense, led by disruptors like Chop Robinson, Abdul Carter and Adisa Isaac, could be ferocious, and while Mike Yurcich’s offense loses quarterback Sean Clifford after a lengthy tenure, big-armed blue-chip QB Drew Allar takes over and will have a dynamite run game to lean on. It feels like the arrows are pointed in the right direction in State College … and yet, there’s a very good chance that PSU could be a top-five-caliber team and still only the third-best team in the Big Ten East. Can it figure out a way past Michigan and Ohio State?
Schlabach: Oklahoma is going to play one more season in the Big 12 before departing to the SEC along with Texas in 2024. The Sooners were kings of the Big 12 under Bob Stoops and Lincoln Riley, and there’s pressure on Venables to get things right in 2023. Sure, Riley can probably be blamed for some of OU’s troubles, after he poached quarterback Caleb Williams and receiver Mario Williams to the Trojans. And Riley didn’t exactly leave the cupboard stocked on defense. The Sooners surrendered 30 points and 461 yards per game, which ranked 99th and 122nd in the FBS, respectively. Venables hit the transfer portal hard to upgrade personnel on that side of the ball. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is returning, but OU will have to replace leading receiver Marvin Mims Jr. and tailback Eric Gray. Oklahoma won’t turn into Nebraska when it joins the SEC, but it’s going to need to turn things around in a hurry.
Rittenberg: Even though TCU and Kansas State justifiably met for the Big 12 championship in 2022, most coaches in the league pointed to Texas as the league’s most talented team. They likely will do so again, as the Longhorns return plenty of high-level players even after losing transcendent running back Bijan Robinson. Texas has to make a statement in its final year in the Big 12 before moving to the SEC, where many think the Longhorns will be a middling program if things don’t shift soon. Sarkisian not only has options at quarterback, but wide receiver and tight end, where Xavier Worthy, Jordan Whittington and Ja’Tavion Sanders all return, and Isaiah Neyor should be back from an ACL injury. Texas’ defense showed some encouraging signs and brings back pass-rusher Barryn Sorrell and others. This season has an if-not-now-when feel for Texas, which gets a big Week 2 opportunity at Alabama.
Andrea Adelson: At least from a national perspective, Clemson has to prove to its growing number of doubters that it still has what it takes to be a perennial playoff contender. Especially after coach Dabo Swinney went out and hired Garrett Riley to help get the offense moving in the right direction. It is a move that acknowledged something had to be done to get the Tigers back to a place where they belonged for so long. While it is true that Clemson won the ACC in 2022 and has 12 straight seasons with 10 or more wins, it also is true that continuing to raise the bar has now put Clemson in a position where anything less than a playoff spot is disappointing. Therefore, the narrative that is being written is one that Clemson is “underachieving” even though this is the best era in the history of Clemson football. Clemson does not have to prove that it can win 10 games and the ACC. But what it does have to prove is that it deserves to be considered a championship contender again.
Hale: Since returning to Chapel Hill, Mack Brown has taken North Carolina to an Orange Bowl and an ACC championship game, yet it still feels like the Tar Heels have largely underperformed. When UNC lost to Texas A&M in the 2020 Orange Bowl, it felt like the program was on the precipice of something special, only for the 2021 season to be a complete disaster. Then the Heels found a genuine superstar at QB in Drake Maye and opened 2022 by winning nine of their first 10 games … only to lose four straight to end the year. Brown has recruited well, but precious few of those blue-chippers have truly developed into stars. He has a potential Heisman winner in Maye, but the offense will also look a bit different with a new coordinator after Phil Longo left for Wisconsin. And the defense? Well, at least it can’t get any worse. Brown is 71, and while he has shown no signs of slowing down, the window for UNC to climb from talented underachiever into a true playoff threat feels like it’s starting to close.
Baumgartner: Can Washington build off Kalen DeBoer’s tremendous debut in Seattle? The Huskies finished tied for second in the Pac-12 and won 11 games for the first time since Chris Petersen led the program to 12 wins and the College Football Playoff in 2016. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (4,641 passing yards, 31 touchdowns) returning for his last season to pilot an offense that was second in the country (515.8 YPG) in 2022 is a great place to start. But can he continue to dodge the injury bug that plagued him at Indiana and that he eluded last season? Petersen led the program to three straight seasons of double-digit wins from 2016 to 2018 and DeBoer’s team has — in addition to a home game against Oregon in October — USC (Nov. 4) and Utah (Nov. 11) back on the schedule after avoiding them last year.
Bonagura: Notre Dame is in an interesting situation. There are many examples littered across college football history of teams losing their head coach, hiring from within and staying afloat initially. That’s more or less what happened with the Irish last season in Marcus Freeman’s first season after replacing Brian Kelly, as the Irish went 9-4 and finished No. 18 in the AP poll. Now comes the hard part. We’ll learn much more about the trajectory of the program in Year 2 and what to expect from the independent Irish as the college football landscape continues to change.
Which player has the most to prove?
Scarborough: Before the 2022 season, I would have said that Arkansas’ KJ Jefferson was one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. I would have pointed to his size (6-foot-3, 242 pounds) and his arm strength and told you he had the chance to be a special player. And I wouldn’t have been alone. At SEC media days in the summer, his coach, Sam Pittman, and his teammates, Jalen Catalon and Bumper Pool, raved about his potential. But then the season got started, Jefferson got banged up and he never realized his potential. Arkansas eked out a 7-6 record and Jefferson finished with a respectable but not inspiring QBR of 81.4 — fourth in the conference. And then, about a month after the season ended, Jefferson lost his coordinator, Kendal Briles, who left for TCU. Briles was replaced by Dan Enos, who returns to Arkansas after stops at Michigan, Alabama, Miami, Cincinnati and Maryland. Enos worked with Jalen Hurts at Alabama. I’m not saying Jefferson is the next Hurts, but I am saying they have similar skill sets. If Enos can get the most out of Jefferson, the sky’s the limit for both him and the Razorbacks’ offense in 2023.
Low: Contrary to popular (crimson-blooded) belief, Alabama’s defense wasn’t subpar last season. The Crimson Tide finished in the top 10 in scoring defense and top 15 in total defense. They just weren’t dominant and gave up a total of 84 points in their two losses. The plan under new coordinator Steele is getting back to being dominant, and the player best suited to spearhead that effort is Dallas Turner. He was the “other” outside linebacker the past two seasons with Will Anderson Jr. on the other side, and Turner didn’t have the kind of explosive season a year ago that some thought he would. Heading into his junior season, the 6-4, 240-pound Turner has everything it takes to be one of the SEC’s top disruptors on defense in 2023. If he is, Alabama’s defense has a chance to get back to being dominant and more disruptive after finishing next to last in the SEC a year ago with just 14 forced turnovers.
Dave Wilson: Quinn Ewers was the star transfer of last offseason, bringing his flowing locks to Austin and taking the reins of Steve Sarkisian’s offense loaded with stars like Robinson and Worthy. But he threw for fewer than 200 yards in six games, which is acceptable given Robinson’s caliber for chewing up yards. But Ewers finished 53rd in QBR, threw just 15 touchdown passes (tied for 73rd), and sometimes struggled when defenses stacked up on Robinson, like against TCU when he threw for 171 yards and an interception on 39 attempts when Robinson was held to 29 yards. With Arch Manning coming in, and an offense returning every starter except Robinson while adding Georgia WR transfer Adonai Mitchell, Sarkisian will expect to score points. The mullet is already gone. Is this the beginning of a new Ewers?
Connelly: Van Dyke was 11th in Total QBR as a breakout star in 2021; Miami won five of six down the stretch after he got his footing, and he went into 2022, Cristobal’s first season as the Hurricanes’ head coach, as the program’s marquee star. And then he proceeded to plummet to 82nd in Total QBR, stuck between Mertz and Temple freshman E.J. Warner. He was banged up and benched and one of the major reasons Miami scored more than 31 points just once against FBS competition. Can new coordinator Shannon Dawson, his third OC in as many years, get both Van Dyke and the suddenly moribund offense back on track? The answer will determine whether Miami can inch its way back up the ACC totem pole, or whether the Cristobal era is going to start with back-to-back disappointments.
Hale: Ewers would probably be my pick, but it’s also worth talking about another big-time recruit with Texas ties, too: Clemson’s Cade Klubnik. He had every opportunity to win the job as a true freshman last season but couldn’t overtake a mediocre DJ Uiagalelei until the ACC title game. Had Klubnik developed a little faster, Clemson might’ve been a playoff team in 2022. Instead, he finally exploded against UNC, then quickly looked like a freshman again in Clemson’s bowl game. After the season, Dabo Swinney fired longtime QB coach (and first-year offensive coordinator) Brandon Streeter and brought in Garrett Riley to ensure Klubnik becomes the next great Clemson passer. There’s no reason to believe it can’t happen — Klubnik certainly has the tools — but with each passing year, the Trevor Lawrence era feels a bit harder to replicate with someone new.
Adelson: Joe Milton III has sent expectations skyrocketing for what he can do as the new Tennessee starting quarterback after playing exceptionally well to close out the 2022 season in place of the injured Hendon Hooker. But there are two key questions headed into the season: How will Milton handle the expectations as the new season inches closer? And has he learned enough over the past two seasons to avoid making the same mistakes he made earlier in his career that kept him from living up to his true potential? His performance in the 31-14 win over Clemson in the Capital One Orange Bowl — completing nearly 70% of his passes with three touchdowns to zero interceptions — certainly suggests he has. Now comes the task of replicating that week after week.
Baumgartner: Whether it be questions surrounding his size or his arm, Payton Thorne has defied the critics several times dating back to his time at Naperville Central High School (Illinois). With his childhood friend Jayden Reed having graduated, Thorne’s production didn’t slip as he threw 40 touchdown passes in his senior year of high school — 18 of them going to current Spartans teammate Cade McDonald. Thorne’s play last year fell short of lofty expectations as Michigan State fell from 11 wins to five. Yes, Thorne didn’t have the luxury of handing the ball off to Walker last year, but Walker wasn’t the sole reason for the Spartans’ success two years ago, as Thorne threw for 3,240 yards and a program-record 27 touchdown passes. Now in the same spot in college five years later with Reed now off to the NFL, can Thorne prove critics wrong one more time?
Rittenberg: I have never witnessed a more dominant individual defensive performance in college football than what Ohio State defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau delivered last year at Penn State. He had two interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, as well as two sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. He also tipped a pass that led to teammate Zach Harrison‘s interception in Ohio State’s 37-24 come-from-behind win. But JTT didn’t come close to matching the effort in other games, recording just 1.5 sacks and no turnover contributions the rest of the season. Ohio State’s defense desperately needs star power to turn a corner, especially along the front. Tuimoloau, ESPN’s No. 4 overall player in the 2021 class, clearly has the talent to be a game wrecker for offenses. The next step is greater consistency. Tuimoloau enters his third season overall and his second in coordinator Jim Knowles’ system. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be a national awards candidate for an improved unit.
Which transfer has the most prove?
Scarborough: On paper, Mertz looks like a great addition for Florida. He was the No. 1-ranked pocket passer in the 2019 class, and he started 32 games for Wisconsin. But he never quite lived up to expectations. The past two seasons, he failed to reach the 60% completion benchmark and threw a combined 29 touchdowns to 21 interceptions. And now he’s stepping into a tricky situation, replacing Richardson, who was very talented but also very inconsistent passing the football. Ricky Pearsall returns at receiver, which helps, but there’s not much proven talent behind him. Napier struggled to get the most out of Richardson. Maybe he’ll find a way to help Mertz reach his potential.
Low: At Wake Forest, Sam Hartman went from an under-recruited quarterback just outside Charlotte, North Carolina, to the ACC record holder for career touchdown passes (110). He earned the Demon Deacons’ starting job his true freshman season and was one of five FBS freshmen to start the season opener at quarterback in 2018. Hartman had a stellar career at Wake Forest and started 45 games. He was one of the main cogs in the Deacons’ impressive run under Dave Clawson, which included an 11-win season in 2021. Now, Hartman takes one last shot at college football on one of college football’s biggest stages as he transfers to Notre Dame. The Irish had won 10 or more games in five straight seasons before dipping to nine a year ago in Marcus Freeman’s first season as coach. Hartman gets a chance to show that he’s the missing piece, as Notre Dame looks to return to the College Football Playoff after a two-year absence.
Connelly: Sticking with former ACC signal-callers, Devin Leary was suffering through a dreadful 2022 campaign even before an injury ended his season six games in. Against East Carolina, Texas Tech, Clemson and Florida State, he completed just 56% of his passes at 10.1 yards per completion with as many interceptions (three) as touchdowns. NC State averaged under 22 points per game against those teams. At Kentucky, he’ll replace Will Levis, who also just dealt with a disappointing, injury-affected season. He’ll have an experienced supporting cast around him, but both Leary and the Wildcats’ offense bear some serious burden of proof after a disappointing season.
Rittenberg: I’ll continue the ACC quarterback theme with a player who remained in the league but certainly needs a reboot after a really rough 2022 season: NC State’s Brennan Armstrong. After a record-setting 2021 season at Virginia, Armstrong remained on the team through the coaching change, but significantly regressed in performance, completing just 54.7% of his passes with 12 interceptions and only seven touchdown passes — 24 fewer than he had the previous season. It became almost painful to watch, especially when Armstrong threw pick-sixes on his first two pass attempts against Pitt. His transfer to NC State makes complete sense, as he will reunite with his former Virginia offensive coordinator Robert Anae there. Armstrong understands Anae’s system and will try to recapture his magic from 2021, when he finished fourth nationally in passing yards with 4,449, a Virginia single-season team record.
Adelson: Is it good or bad that many of the transfer players with something to prove come from the ACC? In my view, the biggest name here is Uiagalelei, who transferred from Clemson to Oregon State. It was only two offseasons ago that Uiagalelei was earning preseason Heisman hype and signing up to be a Dr. Pepper spokesperson, but for myriad reasons, it simply did not work out for him in two years as the Clemson starter. Uiagalelei handled the criticism and disappointments with class and grace, but now this fresh start gives him an opportunity to refocus and reset. Uiagalelei has the same potential and talent coaches saw when he was a highly touted recruit out of California. Perhaps moving outside the national spotlight will help him prove that to the world.
Hale: The QBs top the list, of course, but those are easy choices. Instead, let’s look at Texas A&M cornerback Tony Grimes, who arrives in College Station after three years at North Carolina in which his career trended downward each season. As a five-star recruit, he reclassified and enrolled at UNC a year early due to COVID-19, and as a freshman he looked spectacular, setting up hopes he’d be the next Dre Bly (his position coach and a fellow Virginia Beach native). Instead, Grimes battled injuries and inconsistency in 2021 and struggled again in 2022. He gets a fresh start at A&M this season, where he could either relocate the ability that made him a potential first-round draft pick or fall into the category of five-star underachiever. It’s easy to point to the lackluster UNC defense and pin much of the blame on the coaching staff. Grimes is in an exceptional spot to succeed now, though, and it’s up to him to prove he deserved all that hype coming out of high school.
Baumgartner: This one’s easy for me: Shedeur Sanders at Colorado. The Buffaloes will be in the spotlight every single day his Hall of Fame father, Deion, patrols the sidelines in Boulder. Sanders was awesome for 12-win Jackson State (3,752 passing yards, 40 TDs) last year. But I want to see how the former ESPN 300 quarterback (No. 61 overall in 2021) does against stiffer competition. The season opener at reigning national runner-up TCU and September games at Oregon and home against USC will throw Sanders and offensive coordinator Sean Lewis, the former head coach at Kent State, right into the fire. Colorado has had only two winning seasons since 2005 and hasn’t won more than five games since Mike MacIntyre led the program to 10 wins and a Pac-12 South title in 2016. Sanders will have as much impact as anyone, shortly followed by his fellow Jackson State transfer, cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter, in deciding how quickly Prime Time comes to Folsom Field.
The 2025 season is on the way and several budding players on our Way-Too-Early Top 25 teams are primed for breakout campaigns.
Tony Rojas should add to Penn State’s proud Linebacker U tradition. After a banner freshman season, safety KJ Bolden is on his way to becoming Georgia’s next defensive star. And incoming freshman running back Gideon Davidson could give Clemson’s offense an immediate jolt.
Who else could break out in 2025? Our college football experts break it down:
Breakout player: Eddrick Houston, DE
With all four starting defensive linemen (Jack Sawyer, JT Tuimoloau, Tyleik Williams, Ty Hamilton) from the national title team moving on to the NFL, the Buckeyes have a major void to fill up front. But Houston, the No. 35 overall recruit last year, seems primed to step into a lynchpin role along the defensive line. Houston (6-foot-3, 270 pounds) was recruited as a defensive end but played inside last season. Wherever he ends up in 2025, he figures to be an impact player for the Buckeyes. — Jake Trotter
Breakout player: Arch Manning, QB
It’s kind of hard to break out when your name is Arch Manning — even if he’s a first-year starter — so we’ll go with the man who could be Manning’s security blanket in coach Steve Sarkisian’s offense: Spencer Shannon. Two years ago, Texas tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders caught 45 passes for 682 yards. Last season, TE Gunnar Helm caught 60 passes for 786 yards and seven TDs. As a redshirt freshman, he appeared in four games last season, but Sarkisian has touted him as their best in-line blocker and someone who has vastly improved his ball skills. At 6-7 and 255 pounds, he’s a mismatch for linebackers and Sarkisian noted he has spent two seasons practicing with Manning already, so they have a rapport. — Dave Wilson
Breakout player: Tony Rojas, LB
After earning honorable-mention All-Big Ten honors as a sophomore, Rojas, a rising standout linebacker, seems primed for a big 2025 season. Rojas surged in the College Football Playoff, highlighted by his pick-six in Penn State’s opening-round victory over SMU. With Abdul Carter on his way to the NFL and All-Big Ten linebacker Kobe King gone as well, Rojas should take on a more central role under new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. — Trotter
Breakout player: Jaden Greathouse, WR
Until the CFP semifinal and national championship game, Greathouse had only 359 yards receiving. But in those final two games against Penn State and Ohio State, Greathouse stepped up for 13 receptions for 233 yards and three touchdowns. In the second half against the Buckeyes, Greathouse spearheaded a furious Notre Dame comeback that came up just short. That spectacular ending could prove to be a springboard for Greathouse to be even greater in 2025. — Trotter
Breakout player: KJ Bolden, DB
One of the best young defenders in the SEC last season, Bolden made his presence felt on the back end of that Georgia defense. As a true freshman, Bolden was overshadowed by All-American safety Malaki Starks but rose up and played some of his best football in the postseason. He’ll only get better in 2025 and will be one of the anchors in a Georgia secondary that is also returning some talented young cornerbacks. Bolden is an excellent open-field tackler and, according to Pro Football Focus, gave up only eight yards in 134 coverage snaps last season. — Chris Low
Breakout player: Makhi Hughes, RB
Running back Jordan James was an underrated part of the Oregon offense last season and, with him leaving for the NFL, the Ducks were quick to add Hughes from the transfer portal to try to fill the void. Hughes spent his past two seasons at Tulane averaging over 5 yards per carry each of those two seasons and totaling 22 touchdowns (15 last season). Without Dillon Gabriel under center and with a younger quarterback in Dante Moore taking over, it wouldn’t be surprising if offensive coordinator Will Stein relies on Hughes (as well as the rest of the Ducks’ running back room) to be the fulcrum of their offense this coming season. — Paolo Uggetti
Breakout player: Gideon Davidson, RB
Unlike last season, when Clemson was all-too tethered to Phil Mafah, it’s a crowded backfield for the Tigers in 2025. Still, that doesn’t mean a lead back won’t emerge from a group that includes last year’s second-leading rusher Jay Haynes, David Eziomume, Keith Adams Jr. and converted receiver Adam Randall. But if there’s a true superstar to emerge, set those sights Davidson, a true freshman described by coach Dabo Swinney as “the best freshman back in the country.” Davidson was ranked as a top-100 prospect across the board, and he averaged better than 9 yards per carry in high school. He’s explosive and powerful, and if he hits the ground running at Clemson, he could carve out a sizable role on an offense poised to be among the most talented in the country. — David Hale
Breakout player: Nic Anderson, WR
Even though he’s new to the LSU roster after transferring from Oklahoma, Anderson has all the tools to be one of the most dynamic playmakers in 2025, especially with Garrett Nussmeier throwing to him. The 6-4, 220-pound Anderson sat out all but one game last season after tearing his quadriceps. But as a redshirt freshman in 2023, he set an Oklahoma freshman record with 10 touchdown catches and averaged 21 yards per catch. Anderson is back to full strength, and with Kyren Lacy headed to NFL, Anderson should emerge as the go-to receiver in LSU’s offense. — Low
Breakout player: Keelan Marion, WR
The Cougars return their top two pass catchers from last season between Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter. But if a BYU offense that finished 11th in passing yards per game among Big 12 programs last season is going to take a leap with second-year starting quarterback Jake Retzlaff, it might require Marion to carve out a larger role. An All-American kick returner who caught 24 passes in 2024, Marion has yet to fully unleash the downfield potential he flashed when he hauled in 28 passes for 474 yards and 5 touchdowns as a freshman at UConn in 2021. Year 3 with the Cougars could be the platform for Marion and his elite speed to become another important weapon for a BYU offense shouldering the weight of Big 12 title and legitimate playoff aspirations in 2025. — Eli Lederman
Breakout player: Nyck Harbor, WR
There might not be a receiver in the country more physically intimidating than Nyck Harbor, who checks in at 6-5, 235 pounds. That’s made him an object of curiosity on South Carolina’s offense for the past two years, despite only small steps forward in his development. But as LaNorris Sellers blossomed down the stretch last season, Harbor, too, seemed to find something extra, finishing with 15 catches, 272 yards and two scores in his final five games of the 2024 season. The Gamecocks wide receivers room was less than dynamic as a whole last year, but Harbor represents real promise — and after two years of incremental improvement, he looks poised to truly deliver on that promise in 2025. — Hale
Breakout player: Cannon Butler, DL
A central focus of the Cyclones’ offseason has been the challenge of replacing 1,110-yard receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, and Iowa State added a pair of new options for quarterback Rocco Becht in transfer pass catchers Chase Sowell (East Carolina) and Xavier Townsend (UCF). But the Cyclones also have production to fill in on the defensive line after the departures of defensive end Joey Petersen (team-high 8.0 TFL last fall) and 2024 sack leader J.R. Singleton. Enter Butler, an athletic defensive lineman and Northern Iowa transfer who totaled 59 tackles and 1.5 sacks in an impressive junior season last fall. At 6-6, 241 pounds, Cannon carries positional flexibility to play on the edge or inside and has tools to establish himself as a valuable component in an otherwise inexperienced Cyclones defensive end unit this fall. — Lederman
Breakout player: Ty Simpson, QB
There will be some intrigue this spring surrounding the quarterback battle at Alabama, especially with Ryan Grubb coming in as offensive coordinator. The Crimson Tide brought in five-star freshman Keelon Russell, and talented Austin Mack followed Kalen DeBoer to Alabama from Washington last year. But it’s Simpson’s time now after backing up Jalen Milroe the past two seasons. The Alabama staff really liked the way Simpson competed last preseason and last spring, and he wasn’t too far behind Milroe. While not as dynamic an athlete as Milroe, Simpson is still plenty athletic and more consistent throwing the ball. This is Simpson’s fourth year on campus, and though he hasn’t played much, he’s a good fit for what Grubb and DeBoer want to do on offense. — Low
Breakout player: Cole Rusk, TE
The Illini had big hopes last season for Rusk, who transferred in after earning FCS All-American honors at Murray State. But Rusk sustained a season-ending knee injury during fall camp. Rusk will now have an opportunity to give quarterback Luke Altmyer a reliable pass-catching option after Illinois’ tight ends combined to generate only 20 receptions last season. — Trotter
Breakout player: Kyson Brown, RB
Replacing the 1,711 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns All-American running back Cam Skattebo produced last fall won’t be easy. The portal addition of Army transfer Kanye Udoh (1,117 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2024) is promising for the Sun Devils’ 2025 backfield, but the 293 carries Skattebo logged last season are more than Udoh had in two years at Army (278), meaning Arizona State probably will have to spread its backfield snaps a bit more in 2025. If that’s the case, third-year rusher Brown could be in line for a bigger role this fall after recording 351 yards and a pair of scores, averaging 4.81 yards per attempt as a sophomore. Brown’s ability in the passing game also distinguishes him alongside Udoh, who brings a grand total of two career receptions in 23 career games operating in Army’s run-heavy offense. — Lederman
Breakout player: LJ Johnson Jr., RB
Miami transfer Brashard Smith was a surprise star for the Mustangs last season, rushing for 1,332 yards and 14 TDs. With Smith departing for the NFL, Johnson, who rushed for 879 yards over the past two seasons, returns to give the Mustangs a powerful runner, but SMU spreads the field and will need someone to help fill Smith’s shoes. Rhett Lashlee highlighted freshman Dramekco Green Jr., who averaged 9.2 yards per carry and rushed for more than 1,500 yards as a high school senior, as someone who could get early playing time. — Wilson
Breakout player: Jerand Bradley, WR
The stakes are heightened for second-year starting quarterback Avery Johnson in 2025, and Kansas State reinforced at wide receiver to help him this offseason, adding transfer pass catchers Bradley (Boston College), Caleb Medford (New Mexico) and Jaron Tibbs (Purdue). Among that trio, Bradley stands out as the most intriguing. The 6-5 receiver, who began his career at Texas Tech, never fully settled in during his lone season at Boston College in 2024. But Bradley been as an productive downfield target in the Big 12 before, hauling in 87 passes for 1,175 yards and 10 touchdowns across the 2022 and 2023 seasons with the Red Raiders, and he’ll have an opportunity to assert himself in the Wildcats’ passing attack alongside top returner Jayce Brown, who logged 47 receptions for 832 yards and 5 touchdown in 2024. — Lederman
Breakout player: Zen Michalski, OL
The Hoosiers picked up a key transfer from down the road in former Notre Dame center Pat Coogan, who started 26 games for the Fighting Irish. But another transfer could also play a big role up front as Indiana revamps its offensive line after last year’s playoff run. Michalski stepped in after left tackle Josh Simmons sustained a season-ending knee injury, then started the next game against Nebraska before sustaining his own injury. Michalski could slide in at right tackle in his first season as a full-time starter and solidify an Indiana offense that holds promise behind transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza. — Trotter
Breakout player: Caleb Banks, DT
The Gators got a huge win when defensive tackle Banks decided to return to school for one more season to anchor a front that improved dramatically as 2024 progressed. Banks had an impressive final month. In the final three games, the 6-6, 325-pound Banks had seven tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks. In all, he had 21 tackles (10 solo) and will now be relied on to help set the tone up front for a team with growing expectations. As much excitement as there is surrounding DJ Lagway, there is also tremendous upside for the Florida defense heading into 2025. — Andrea Adelson
Breakout player: Mike Matthews, WR
Matthews came in as a five-star receiver last season as a freshman but didn’t provide much production for a Tennessee offense that was lacking in explosive plays. He briefly flirted with transferring after the season but decided to return and is somebody the Vols desperately need to blossom and give them some firepower in the passing game. Matthews caught seven passes for 90 yards and two touchdowns last season. He has big-play ability written all over him, and with Tennessee losing seven receivers from last season’s team, there’s a chance for Matthews to live up to his billing. — Low
Breakout player: Jordan Guerad, DL
After battling an early season injury, Guerad had a strong finish to his season, culminating with six tackles (two for a loss) and a sack in the bowl game against Washington. The interior of the D-line looks like a point of need for the Cardinals after the departures of Thor Griffin, Dezmond Tell and Notre Dame transfer Jared Dawson, but a healthy Guerad will get ample opportunity to continue his development and prove he’s the answer to Louisville’s biggest defensive need. — Hale
Breakout player: Jordan Marshall, RB
The Wolverines featured a strong running back duo last season in Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards, who combined for 1,537 yards. But with both runners sitting out the ReliaQuest Bowl to prepare for the draft, the Wolverines might have uncovered their back of the future in Marshall. A blue-chip freshman out of Ohio, Marshall rushed for 100 yards on 23 carries in the first meaningful action of his career, earning bowl game MVP honors in Michigan’s 19-13 victory over Alabama. With Marshall and Alabama transfer Justice Haynes, running back seems primed to remain a strength for the Wolverines. — Trotter
Breakout player: Terry Bussey, WR
The Aggies landed the dynamic Bussey, the No. 1 athlete and No. 18 overall prospect in the 2024 ESPN 300, with an eye on him playing cornerback. But with a more urgent need for playmakers on offense, he switched to wide receiver late in the summer. His best game came against Missouri, when he caught three passes for 76 yards. On the season, he caught only 17 passes, but 11 came in the last four games. With a year under his belt on offense full time, the Aggies are hoping to find more creative ways to utilize his 4.4 speed. — Wilson
Breakout player: Elija Lofton, TE
Lofton drew raves last season as a freshman for his versatility and playmaking ability. Though he played in every game, Miami had three more experienced tight ends on the roster so his snaps were limited. That will no longer be the case heading into the 2025 season. With Elijah Arroyo, Cam McCormick and Riley Williams all gone, Lofton will take over as the top tight end. Though it might appear that the group depth will take a hit, the coaching staff feels great about the position because of what Lofton is poised to become as he reaches his full potential. At 6-3, 230 pounds, he has the athleticism to play both tight end and running back, but also the size and strength to block the way Miami expects from its tight ends. — Adelson
Breakout players: Jambres Dubar and Sire Gaines, RBs
There is no more Ashton Jeanty in the backfield for Boise State, but the majority of the offense built to support a strong running attack remains. It’s why Dubar and Gaines could be in line for breakout seasons. In two seasons, Dubar has had limited action (87 carries, 434 yards and 4 touchdowns) and Gaines’ freshman season in 2024 featured 20 carries for 156 yards and 1 touchdown. With quarterback Maddux Madsen returning, and an internal hire as the new offensive coordinator in Matt Miller, the system that can fuel another explosive rusher is not so different in 2025. Come the fall, Madsen probably will be asked to do a lot more, but so will Dubar and Gaines. — Uggetti
Breakout player: Zxavian Harris, DT
Ole Miss had one of the most dominant defensive lines in the country last season, and the Rebels’ numbers bear that out. They were second nationally in scoring defense and rushing defense and set a school record with 53 sacks. Most of the key players from that unit are gone, but Harris, a 6-7, 320-pound tackle, returns in the middle of that Ole Miss defensive line and will be force in 2025. He has played in 37 games over the past three seasons and shown flashes of dominance. His senior season will be his best yet, and Ole Miss will need that from him. — Low
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Jorge Castillo
SARASOTA, Fla. — The state of the 2025 Baltimore Orioles, one of enviable surplus in position-player talent and a potential deficit in the pitching department, was on display in their clubhouse Tuesday afternoon.
First, 41-year-old Charlie Morton, the second-oldest player in the majors, was scratched from his Grapefruit League start against the Toronto Blue Jays that evening without an immediate reason, briefly raising concerns that the Orioles’ rotation had experienced another setback. Within minutes, corner infielder Coby Mayo, one of the top prospects in baseball, openly expressed his displeasure to reporters about Baltimore’s decision to option him to minor league camp.
But Morton was not injured — the Orioles just chose to have him pitch in a simulated setting on a back field instead of facing a division rival. And the Orioles are not down on Mayo, who has clubbed 34 home runs with a .919 OPS in Triple-A over the past two seasons — they simply decided they did not have room for him on the big league roster.
“That’s what happens when you have good teams,” Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said.
The Orioles expect to be good for a reason. The question is, how good?
This year’s club features a lineup, fueled by a ballyhooed young core, that should mash even after Anthony Santander and his 44 home runs left to join the Blue Jays during the offseason. The starting rotation, however, projects as the worst in a loaded American League East — the only division in baseball that PECOTA projects will have all five teams win at least 80 games.
“The other four teams are really, really good teams,” Hyde said. “It’s going to be a dogfight every night. You’re going to be facing somebody that’s really good on a nightly basis in the division.”
The Orioles have been good enough to navigate the treacherous AL East and reach the postseason in each of the past two years. Whether they can make another playoff appearance — and finally win a game in October — will come down to their pitching, particularly the starting rotation.
The Orioles do not have a proven ace. They had one last season in Corbin Burnes, a former Cy Young Award winner whom they acquired entering his final season before free agency. Burnes had an All-Star season in Baltimore, posting a 2.92 ERA across 32 starts. Then he left. Seeking a home out West, the right-hander signed a six-year, $210 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks at the end of December.
The Orioles have replaced him with two veteran free agents on the wrong side of the aging curve — Morton and 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sugano — on one-year deals for a combined $28 million. To fill the hole left by Santander in the outfield, they signed veteran Tyler O’Neill to a three-year, $49.5 million deal. In the process, Baltimore, in David Rubenstein’s first offseason as principal owner, raised its luxury tax payroll from $89.4 million last season to $126.8 million, which ranks 24th in baseball, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
“I think it’s a tough thing in sports, particularly for baseball, particularly for teams that aren’t the handful of larger market teams that can run the $300 million payrolls, that you’re going to have athletes leave,” Orioles general manager Mike Elias said. “Nobody wants it any time, but a big part of our profession is scripting out what’s the healthiest way to run the organization long term and from top to bottom and sometimes that involves not being the winner on a free agent.”
The rotation took another step back earlier this month when Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles’ projected No. 1 starter, was shut down with elbow inflammation. He started throwing again Tuesday, but will begin the season on the injured list, leaving Zach Eflin to start on Opening Day in Toronto. Dean Kremer, Cade Povich and Albert Suárez complete Baltimore’s list of options for the rotation.
Internal reinforcements could eventually bolster the group. Right-hander Kyle Bradish, who finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting in 2023, is on track to join the rotation in the second half of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. Left-hander Trevor Rogers, an All-Star in 2021 who struggled mightily upon being traded to Baltimore last summer, could be available early in the season after dislocating his right kneecap in January.
The final spot in the rotation is a competition between Povich, a 24-year-old left-hander who recorded a 5.54 ERA in 16 starts last season, and Suárez, a 35-year-old journeyman who emerged last season to post a 3.70 ERA across 133⅔ innings. Povich was given Morton’s start Tuesday and tossed five hitless innings, better positioning himself for the job. Morton, meanwhile, threw to Orioles hitters on a back field as he prepares for his 17th season.
The right-hander launched his career as a mediocre young pitcher, became a first-time All-Star at 34 years old and is now an age-defying wonder who has outlasted most of his peers. Along the way, he’s been around successful young rosters. He was on the Pittsburgh Pirates‘ last playoff teams in the mid-2010s. He won a World Series with the Houston Astros in 2017, advanced to another one with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2020 and won his second title with the Atlanta Braves in 2021.
He said these Orioles, a few of whom are nearly half his age, remind him of the Astros teams he played on.
“I think certainly you want to prove yourself on an individual level to other people, to yourself,” Morton said. “But once you start to taste winning and once you start to kind of see that you can be, as a group, better than you, then you kind of build a momentum. And that momentum becomes something that really shapes your identity. And then you start to, as a group, believe in being able to do things that are greater than what you thought you could do maybe at the beginning. I think in Houston we had that.”
The Orioles’ position-player group, while bursting with talent, is not foolproof. Superstar shortstop Gunnar Henderson, who finished fourth in AL MVP voting in his age-23 season in 2024, could miss the start of the season with an intercostal injury. Two-time All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman, the organization’s other cornerstone, is seeking to rebound from a second-half collapse in production. Second baseman Jackson Holliday, the top prospect in baseball a year ago, will look to establish himself after slashing .189/.255/.311 in 60 games as a 20-year-old rookie.
“We have guys that still haven’t reached their upside for me,” Hyde said.
If that happens — if Henderson somehow takes another step, if Rutschman rediscovers his form, if Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad, all 26 and under, play to their potential — then the Orioles will be very good. To be great, they’ll need their rotation to exceed expectations.
“We made the playoffs,” first baseman Ryan Mountcastle said of last year’s club, which was swept in the wild-card round by the Kansas City Royals. “That’s always huge. You just got to get there first. It wasn’t the end result we wanted, but I think we’ve learned from it, we’ve grown from it. Hopefully we bring it into this coming year, hopefully make the playoffs again and make a better run.”
The race for the Western Conference’s second wild-card spot is by no means a two-team showdown — but the two teams tied in standings points for that position are squaring off on Thursday.
The Vancouver Canucks — who currently hold the coveted playoff spot, with 75 points and 25 regulation wins in 68 games — will be visiting the St. Louis Blues (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+), who also have 75 points and 25 regulation wins but in 69 games.
So, with apologies to the Calgary Flames and Utah Hockey Club, Thursday night’s clash has become extra pivotal, after the clubs split the first two games of the season series and will not play again.
Looking beyond this game, the Blues play five of their remaining 12 games against current playoff teams; the Canucks have an extra game down the stretch, but they play seven of their final 13 against playoff teams, including five of their final six.
Stathletes likes the Blues’ postseason future a bit more, putting their playoff chances at 56.8%, with the Canucks at 26.3%.
There is a lot of runway left until April 17, the final day of the regular season, and we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Montreal Canadiens
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 Vancouver Canucks
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings
Thursday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).
Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators, 7 p.m.
Calgary Flames at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers, 7 p.m.
Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals, 7 p.m.
Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7 p.m.
Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders, 7:30 p.m.
Vancouver Canucks at St. Louis Blues, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+)
Anaheim Ducks at Nashville Predators, 8 p.m.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars, 8 p.m.
Los Angeles Kings at Chicago Blackhawks, 8:30 p.m.
Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers, 9 p.m.
Buffalo Sabres at Utah Hockey Club, 9 p.m.
Boston Bruins at Vegas Golden Knights, 10 p.m.
Carolina Hurricanes at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m.
Wednesday’s scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Colorado Avalanche 1
Minnesota Wild 4, Seattle Kraken 0
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 102.5
Next game: @ CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 102.5
Next game: @ NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 83
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 101.6
Next game: @ DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 94.2
Next game: vs. COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 97.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 89.3
Next game: @ NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 36.5%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 84.4
Next game: @ VGK (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 5.1%
Tragic number: 26
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 2.4%
Tragic number: 23
Points: 60
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 74.6
Next game: @ UTA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 20
Metro Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 118.2
Next game: vs. PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 105.3
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 95.1
Next game: vs. CGY (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 96.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 85.6
Next game: vs. TOR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 25.5%
Tragic number: 26
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 85.7
Next game: vs. MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 23.8%
Tragic number: 28
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 85.7
Next game: vs. FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 12.4%
Tragic number: 28
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 77.3
Next game: vs. CBJ (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 18
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 76.1
Next game: @ WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 18
Central Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 116.5
Next game: @ EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 108.9
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 101.0
Next game: @ OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 83
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 98.6
Next game: vs. BUF (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 92.6%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 89.1
Next game: vs. VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 56.8%
Tragic number: 27
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 85.6
Next game: vs. BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 8.6%
Tragic number: 25
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 71.0
Next game: vs. ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 59.1
Next game: vs. LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 3
Pacific Division
Points: 86
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 105.3
Next game: vs. BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 101.3
Next game: vs. WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 100.6
Next game: @ CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 90.4
Next game: @ STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 26.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 89.3
Next game: @ NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 16.5%
Tragic number: 29
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 79.6
Next game: @ NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 20
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 76.1
Next game: @ EDM (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 15
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 54.3
Next game: vs. CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Note: An “e” means that the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.
Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 60
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 70
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 30
Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
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