What to watch out for in Xi Jinpings peace speech

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2 years ago

February 23, 2023

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Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to deliver a major speech on Friday, the anniversary of Russias invasion of Ukraine, outlining a so-called peace plan for the war.

Here are three questions to which analysts are looking for answers. 1. Will China provide military aid to Russia? If yes, what sort?

Experts believe that China is unlikely to supply weapons to Russia. United States and European officials have recently cited intelligence that Beijing was mulling over this possibility, although it has so far refrained from sending lethal aid such as artillery shells.

In response to such concerns, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said at a regular press conference on Wednesday that this was groundless speculation.

Associate research fellow James Char at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) believes that the claim of arms supply to Russia remains speculation.

But Beijing has been exploiting Moscows predicament by buying more Russian commodities at a discount since the start of the conflict, while avoiding transactions that might risk secondary sanctions, he said.

I think the Chinese Communist Party leadership would not want to take that risk, especially since the Chinese economy is still in the midst of recovering from its previous zero-Covid policy, added Dr Char.

Other experts have said that China supplying weapons to Russia could be perceived as an escalation of the war, and worsen relations with the US and other Western nations, running contrary to Beijings recent efforts to mend ties.

Professor Benjamin Ho of RSIS China programme said Chinas goal is simple: So long as the war does not spill into China, it is in Beijings interests to have all the major players distracted in Ukraine.

Having the West being bogged down with a conflict with Russia clearly works to Beijings advantage. Whether that requires China to send lethal weapons or not, I leave it to others imagination. 2. What specific proposals will Mr Xi provide to end the war?

Dr Chen Gang, a senior research fellow at the East Asian Institute, believes that Mr Xis peace initiative would include asking both sides to agree to a ceasefire and resume peace talks.

He could ask other countries to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine, and for Ukraine to promise not to join the US-led Nato military alliance. He is likely to say that Russias security concerns should be respected.

These are part of Chinas basic position on the war, and Dr Chen does not expect a significant policy shift to be announced.

I dont think they will ask Russia to withdraw to pre-February 2022 positions or to give up Crimea.

China has refused to condemn Russias action or call it an invasion, instead using Moscows line that Nato had provoked the conflict. But Beijing has also said it is against war and the use of nuclear weapons. More On This Topic China says Russia ties solid as rock amid Ukraine peace push Beijing hopes peace between Russia and Ukraine can be Made in China Dr Char said the speech will largely comprise broad statements calling for a negotiated settlement that fall short of specifics on how to end the war.

By sticking to this third camp between the pro-Nato and pro-Russia positions, Beijing can continue to enjoy the most advantageous position among the major powers, he added.

This means it neither needs to exhaust its military and human resources like Moscow, nor hand over billions of dollars in aid, as Washington has been doing.

Prof Ho added: I doubt China has any clear plan to resolve the Ukraine war, at least not one which will be acceptable to Ukraine and other Western countries. 3. How will the plan fit into Mr Xis grand security vision for the world?

Political scientist Chong Ja Ian at the National University of Singapore expects Mr Xis speech to follow along the lines of the Global Security Initiative concept paper that China released on Tuesday, with broad statements about non-nuclear use and respect for sovereignty.

The initiative launched by Mr Xi in 2022 is his flagship security proposal, which aims to uphold indivisible security, a concept also endorsed by Russia.

The concept paper also stated, among other things, that the use of unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction do not solve problems but only create more difficulties and complications likely a reference to US and other Western nations that have imposed economic sanctions on Russia over the war.

Dr Char said the concept of indivisible security essentially calls for the right to safeguard ones legitimate security interests, and that no countrys security should be built at the expense of others security.

China also believes it has little to gain from switching to a pro-West position, and it does need Russia as a diplomatic partner.

Beijing realises that anything but a contrarian position (to the West) would deprive it of much-needed diplomatic space to manoeuvre, and so will likely continue to refrain from criticising Russia publicly, at least.

China is aware that its disagreements with the US and the other Western powers would not simply disappear even if it were to side with Kyiv, he added. More On This Topic US concerned by China-Russia ties as Putin signals Xi visit China says it will offer concrete ideas to end Ukraine war

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Ukrainian frontline commander warns: ‘The world is scared of Russia and losing is not only our problem’

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2 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Ukrainian frontline commander warns: 'The world is scared of Russia and losing is not only our problem'

In the courtyard of a farmhouse now home to soldiers of the Ukrainian army’s 47th mechanised brigade, I’m introduced to a weary-looking unit by their commander Captain Oleksandr “Sasha” Shyrshyn.

We are about 10km from the border with Russia, and beyond it lies the Kursk region Ukraine invaded in the summer – and where this battalion is now fighting.

The 47th is a crack fighting assault unit.

They’ve been brought to this area from the fierce battles in the country’s eastern Donbas region to bolster Ukrainian forces already here.

War latest: Russia ready to carry out ‘massive attack’

Captain Shyrshyn explains that among the many shortages the military has to deal with, the lack of infantry is becoming a critical problem.

Sasha is just 30 years old, but he is worldly-wise. He used to run an organisation helping children in the country’s east before donning his uniform and going to war.

He is famous in Ukraine and is regarded as one of the country’s top field commanders, who isn’t afraid to express his views on the war and how it’s being waged.

His nom de guerre is ‘Genius’, a nickname given to him by his men.

‘Don’t worry, it’s not a minefield’

Sasha invited me to see one of the American Bradley fighting vehicles his unit uses.

We walk down a muddy lane before he says it’s best to go cross-country.

“We can go that way, don’t worry it’s not a minefield,” he jokes.

He leads us across a muddy field and into a forest where the vehicle is hidden from Russian surveillance drones that try to hunt both American vehicles and commanders.

Sasha shows me a picture of the house they had been staying in only days before – it was now completely destroyed after a missile strike.

Fortunately, neither he, nor any of his men, were there at the time.

“They target commanders,” he says with a smirk.

‘The world is scared of Russia’

It takes me a moment or two to realise we are only a few steps away from the Bradley, dug in and well hidden beneath the trees.

Sasha tells me the Bradley is the finest vehicle he has ever used.

A vehicle so good, he says, it’s keeping the Ukrainian army going in the face of Russia’s overwhelming numbers of soldiers.

He explains: “Almost all our work on the battlefield is cooperation infantry with the Bradley. So we use it for evacuations, for moving people from one place to another, as well as for fire-covering.

“This vehicle is very safe and has very good characteristics.”

Billions of dollars in military aid has been given to Ukraine by the United States, and this vehicle is one of the most valuable assets the US has provided.

Ukraine is running low on men to fight, and the weaponry it has is not enough, especially if it can’t fire long-range missiles into Russia itself – which it is currently not allowed to do.

If President-elect Donald Trump cuts the supply of military aid, the Ukrainians will lose – it’s that simple.

Sasha says: “We have a lack of weapons, we have a lack of artillery, we have a lack of infantry, and as the world doesn’t care about justice, and they don’t want to finish the war by our win, they are afraid of Russia.

“I’m sorry but they’re scared, they’re scared, and it’s not the right way.”

Like pretty much everyone in Ukraine, Sasha is waiting to see what the US election result will mean for his country.

He is sceptical about a deal with Russia.

“Our enemy only understands the language of power. And you cannot finish the war in 24 hours, or during the year without hard decisions, without a fight, so it’s impossible. It’s just talking without results,” he tells me.

‘Losing will be not only our problem’

These men expect the fierce battles inside Kursk to intensify in the coming days.

Indeed, alongside the main supply route into Kursk, workers are already building new defensive positions – unfurling miles of razor wire and digging bunkers for the Ukrainian army if it finds itself in retreat.

Sasha and his men are realistic about support fatigue from the outside world but will keep fighting to the last if they have to.

“I understand this is only our problem, it’s only our issue, and we have to fight this battle, like we have to defend ourselves, it’s our responsibility,” Sasha said.

But he points out everyone should realise just how critical this moment in time is.

“If we look at it widely, we have to understand that us losing will be not only our problem, but it will be for all the world.”

Stuart Ramsay reports from northeastern Ukraine with camera operator Toby Nash, and producers Dominique Van Heerden, Azad Safarov, and Nick Davenport.

World

Spain flooding: New weather warnings issued – as country counts flooding cost

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2 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Spain flooding: New weather warnings issued - as country counts flooding cost

A weather warning has been issued for parts of Spain, as the country counts the cost of recent flooding.

The orange warnings are in place for parts of southwestern Spain – the area around Seville down towards Gibraltar.

Up to 8cm (3ins) of rain could fall within 12 hours, but the weekend looks much more settled in the country.

The latest warnings come just two weeks after flash flooding in Valencia and other parts of the country killed more than 200 people.

Malaga saw 14.2cm (5.6ins) of rainfall on Wednesday – Spain’s highest of the day – most of which fell in six hours.

All train services were halted in Malaga. Some flights have now resumed after the initial disruption.

Emergency services in the province have moved 3,000 people from homes at risk of flooding close to the Guadalhorce River in the west of the city.

Jamie Marchant, 29, from Caerphilly in South Wales travelled to Malaga last Wednesday.

He told Sky News that “debris” had been left behind by the recent rainfall in the region.

“Everyone is pitching in to clean up and some shops are opening as usual,” he added.

Orange warnings for the Valencia region in eastern Spain expired earlier on Thursday.

The adverse weather could lead to total insured losses of more than €4bn (£3.33bn), according to credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS.

Much of the claims are expected to be covered by the Spanish government’s insurance pool, the agency said, but insurance premiums are likely to increase.

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Man suspected of supplying small boats for Channel migrant crossings arrested at Amsterdam airport

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2 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Man suspected of supplying small boats for Channel migrant crossings arrested at Amsterdam airport

A man accused of being a major supplier of the boats and engines used by cross-Channel people smugglers to bring migrants to the UK has been arrested.

The Turkish national, 44, was held at Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport on Wednesday and faces extradition to Belgium to face human smuggling charges, the National Crime Agency (NCA) said.

He is suspected of supplying the engines and boats used by traffickers to bring migrants across the Channel.

The equipment was shipped from Turkey and stored in Germany before being brought to northern France when needed.

NCA director general Rob Jones hailed the arrest as an “important milestone” in one of its most “significant investigations into organised immigration crime”.

“We suspect that this individual is a major supplier of boats and engines to the smugglers operating in Belgium and northern France,” he said.

“The types of vessels and engines we see used in making these crossings are highly dangerous and completely unfit for open water.

“At least 50 people are known to have died this year as a result. There is no legitimate use for them.”

More than 32,000 migrants have arrived in the UK so far this year after crossing the Channel.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer described the arrest as a “significant piece of the jigsaw” in tackling Channel crossings, but added: “I’m not pretending it’s the silver bullet.”

He vowed the government would “treat people smugglers like terrorists” as he announced an extra £75m for his border security command during a speech at the Interpol general assembly in Glasgow last week.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “We will relentlessly pursue the criminal smuggling gangs making millions out of small boat crossings that undermine our border security and put lives at risk.

“This major investigation shows how important it is for our crime fighting agencies to be working hand in glove with our international partners to get results.”

The NCA said it is leading around 70 ongoing investigations into networks or people “in the top tier” of organised immigration crime or people trafficking and stressed the importance of working with its counterparts in Europe.

A spokesperson for the public prosecutor’s office of West Flanders said: “International cooperation is crucial in the fight against human smuggling, and the arrest of this suspect through close cooperation with our UK and Dutch partners demonstrates our ongoing commitment to partnership working.

“Human smuggling criminals do not respect national borders, and we will relentlessly pursue these criminals through working internationally.”