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If you spent part of the 2022 college football season thinking, “USC can’t possibly keep getting away with this!!” then you should know this: Your hunches were as statistically sound as they were exasperated.

For much of last fall, the Trojans’ defense was good at one and only one thing: pouncing on the football just in the nick of time. They lacked in just about every other department — they were 93rd in scoring defense (29.2 points per game), 106th in total defense (423.9 yards per game) and a ghastly 124th in yards allowed per play (6.5!) — but they forced 28 turnovers, sixth-most in the FBS.

Every football coach in existence preaches the importance of turnovers and turnover margin. But while you can impact your own turnover margin to some degree with how well you teach ball security and ball pursuit, how aggressively you go after the opponent’s quarterback, how aggressive your own offense is, et cetera, there’s still a massive amount of fortune involved here. And USC’s fortune meter was turned all the way up.

In the first five USC games of 2022, there were nine fumbles, and the Trojans recovered all nine. Fumble recoveries revert to 50% over a long enough period of time, but USC got to an 11-1 record by having recovered 18 of 23 (78%). While a team typically intercepts about one pass to every four pass breakups, their regular-season ratio was 1-to-1.9, and their interceptions total was seven higher than national averages would suggest.

The INT ratio regressed to the mean late in the season, and the fumble recoveries will probably do the same soon enough. Luck and randomness play a massive role in the game of football — especially the version played by 18- to 22-year-olds — and as we slowly gear up for 2023, let’s take a look at who benefited the most from the bounce of the ol’ pointy football.


Fumble recovery rates

Indeed, over a large enough period of time, a team will recover about 50% of all fumbles. There’s a slight correlation between where a fumble occurs and which team is more likely to recover — the further downfield it is, the more likely a defender will pounce on it (primarily because there are usually more defenders in the near vicinity) — but even then the fates don’t change a ton. By simply looking at who recovered a particularly high or low percentage of loose balls, we are learning a lot about who benefited from fortune and who will be impacted by future regression toward the mean.

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Nats slugger Wood commits to Home Run Derby

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Nats slugger Wood commits to Home Run Derby

Washington Nationals slugger James Wood will bring his massive power to the big stage, becoming the third player to commit to the July 14 Home Run Derby in Atlanta.

Wood, 22, has delivered 22 home runs in 86 games during his first full major league season. He was acquired by the Nationals in 2022 as part of the package of top prospects Washington received in the trade that sent Juan Soto to the San Diego Padres.

Wood announced the commitment on Instagram, with a video montage of himself, along with video clips of former Atlanta Braves star Hank Aaron hitting his record 714th home run in 1974. The video included the words, “Derby bound.”

Wood has 12 homers that have been hit harder than 110 mph. It’s the second most in the league behind Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani‘s 13. Wood also has four dingers that have been launched longer than 445 feet.

The Seattle MarinersCal Raleigh and the Braves’ Ronald Acuna Jr. also have committed to the event, with five more participants still to be named.

Raleigh, who would become the first catcher to win the event, has a major-league-best 33 home runs. Acuna has nine home runs in 36 games after returning from a torn left ACL that also limited him to 49 games last season.

Defending champion Teoscar Hernandez of the Los Angeles Dodgers already has said he will not defend his Home Run Derby crown.

Field Level Media and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Astros GM: Alvarez setback not as bad as feared

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Astros GM: Alvarez setback not as bad as feared

DENVER — Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez‘s setback to his recovery from a fractured right hand is not as serious as first feared, general manager Dana Brown said Thursday.

Alvarez, who suffered the injury on May 2, was shut down after experiencing pain in his right hand. He had taken some swings at the team’s spring training complex in West Palm Beach, Florida, on Monday and when he arrived there Tuesday, the area was sore.

He was examined by a specialist, who determined inflammation was the issue and not a setback with the fracture.

“It had nothing to do with the fracture, or the fracture not being healed,” Brown said before Houston’s game at Colorado. “The fracture at this point is a nonfactor, which we’re very glad about. And so during the process of him being examined by the specialist, we saw the inflammation, and Yordan did receive two shots in that area.”

Alvarez first experienced issues with his hand in late April but stayed in the lineup. He was initially diagnosed with a muscle strain but a small fracture was discovered at the end of May.

Brown said there has not been an update on the timetable for Alvarez’s return but said with the latest update it “could be in the near future.”

“Yordan is going to be in a position where he’s going to let rest and let the shot take effect, and then as long as he’s starting to feel better, we’ll put a bat in his hand before we start hitting, but we’ll just let him feel the bat feels like,” Brown said. “And then we’ll get into some swings in the near future, but I felt like it was encouraging news. Now, with this injection into the area that was inflamed, we feel a lot better.”

Alvarez, who averaged 34 home runs over the previous four seasons, has just three in 29 games this year and is batting .210. He was the 2021 ALCS MVP for the Astros and finished third in the AL MVP voting for 2022.

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Sources: Guardians’ Ortiz faces gambling inquiry

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Sources: Guardians' Ortiz faces gambling inquiry

Cleveland Guardians right-hander Luis Ortiz is under investigation by Major League Baseball after a betting-integrity firm flagged a pair of pitches that had received unusual gambling activity, sources told ESPN on Thursday.

Sources said betting-integrity firm IC360 sent an alert in June to sportsbook operators regarding Ortiz, whom MLB has placed on “non-disciplinary paid leave” through July 17.

The alert, according to sources who reviewed it, referenced action on Ortiz’s first pitches in select innings to be a ball or a hit batsman in two games: June 15 against the Seattle Mariners and June 27 against the St. Louis Cardinals. In both the bottom of the second inning against the Mariners and the top of the third inning against the Cardinals, Ortiz threw a first-pitch slider that was well outside the strike zone.

The alert on Ortiz’s first pitches flagged bets in Ohio, New York and New Jersey. Betting on the result of first pitches is offered by some sportsbooks, with such wagers commonly referred to as microbets.

Ortiz’s paid leave, which ends at the conclusion of the All-Star break, was negotiated between the league and the MLB Players Association. If the investigation remains open, the leave could be extended.

Ortiz had been scheduled to start Thursday night’s game against the Chicago Cubs.

“The Guardians have been notified that Luis Ortiz has been placed on leave per an agreement with the Players Association due to an ongoing league investigation,” the team said in a statement. “The Guardians are not permitted to comment further at this time and will respect the league’s confidential investigative process.”

The investigation into Ortiz’s potential violation of the league’s gambling policy comes a little more than a year after MLB levied a lifetime ban against San Diego Padres infielder Tucupita Marcano for placing nearly 400 bets on baseball. Four other players received one-year suspensions for gambling on baseball while in the minor leagues. In February, MLB fired umpire Pat Hoberg — widely recognized as the best ball-strike arbiter in the game — for “sharing” a legal sports betting account with a friend who bet on baseball and later deleting messages key to the investigation.

A 26-year-old starting pitcher, Ortiz was acquired by Cleveland from the Pittsburgh Pirates over the winter as part of the three-team trade in which the Guardians sent second baseman Andres Gimenez to the Toronto Blue Jays. With a 4-9 record and 4.36 ERA, Ortiz has been a staple in a Guardians rotation whose 4.13 ERA ranks 18th in MLB.

Ortiz’s leave comes amid a slide for the Guardians, who have lost six consecutive games to drop to 40-44. While Cleveland remains in second place in the American League Central, it trails first-place Detroit by 12½ games.

Ortiz signed with the Pirates in 2018 at 19 years old, far later than the typical prospect, and didn’t reach full-season ball until 2021. He quickly shot through the Pittsburgh organization and debuted in 2022, eventually throwing 238⅓ innings and posting a 3.93 ERA in his three seasons with the Pirates.

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