MLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
Who will be the best player of the 2023 MLB season?
Opening Day is almost here, which means it’s time to break down how baseball’s elite stack up against each other.
To create our annual MLB Rank list of the top 100 players in the sport, we presented a panel of ESPN baseball experts with pairings upon pairings of the biggest names in the game and asked one simple question: Which player will be better in 2023?
But it raises the question: How do you compare a player like Shohei Ohtani to Mike Trout? Or Aaron Judge? And where do baseball’s best pitchers land? It seems impossible to pit these stars against one another, but we did it — and one player came out on top.
Our list features Cy Young Award winners, MVPs, veterans building Hall of Fame résumés and young megastars who could dominate MLB for years to come. But who’s No. 1? And where does the best player on your team rank?
ESPN MLB experts Alden Gonzalez, Dave Schoenfield, Joon Lee, Jesse Rogers and Brad Doolittle broke down why each player is ranked where they are and what to expect from them in the upcoming season.
Watch: “Baseball Tonight” MLB Rank special, Sunday at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN
More: Snubs, surprises
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that Ohtani ranks first heading into the 2023 season. He is the most uniquely talented player in baseball history, and it took a historic offensive season from Aaron Judge to prevent him from becoming a back-to-back MVP. Ohtani, still only 28, is both one of the most dominant starting pitchers and one of the most feared hitters in the sport, along with being one of the fastest runners. (And if he wanted to be an outfielder, coaches believe he could become an excellent defender, too.)
From 2021 to 2022, Ohtani put up a higher wRC+ than Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts and Manny Machado, and a lower xFIP than Max Scherzer, Max Fried and Sandy Alcantara. Outside of Babe Ruth, briefly a two-way player more than 100 years ago, nobody has even attempted both traits at this level, let alone excelled at it. — Gonzalez
Season prediction: As the years go on, Ohtani seems to grow more comfortable in a two-way role. His command on the mound continually evolves, his familiarity with opposing pitchers only grows. It has become clear while watching him perform in the World Baseball Classic that Ohtani is the best baseball player in the world. Expect another MVP-worthy season — with a $500 million-plus contract to follow. — Gonzalez
CF | Los Angeles Angels
Perhaps the only man who can challenge Ohtani as the game’s best player is a healthy Mike Trout. Health, though, has been an issue of late. Trout has played in fewer than 70% of the Angels’ games over the last five years, most notably missing the last four and a half months of the 2021 season with a troublesome calf. When he does play, however, he resembles the best player on the planet.
Last year, Trout appeared in only 119 games but still managed 40 home runs and a .999 OPS and won his ninth Silver Slugger. His 81.4 FanGraphs WAR since his first full season in 2012 is laughably beyond anybody else’s grasp (second place is Max Scherzer, at 60.1). At 31, Trout should still have a few prime years left. He just needs to stay off the injured list.
Season prediction: Trout is still fully capable of standing out even among the game’s best players, and he should continue to do so. If he stays healthy, he might lead the majors in every major offensive category. Just don’t expect a bunch of stolen bases or acrobatic catches; Trout, rightly, has become conscious of the importance of preserving his body. — Gonzalez
Putting together a historic season is going to vault someone right up this list. Judge captivated the sports world by breaking Rogers Maris’ American League home run record. Now, armed with an enormous contract, Judge enters the second phase of his career. While he is one of the sport’s most recognizable faces and biggest stars, a World Series title has eluded him. And while Judge will always be remembered for his historic 2022 season, the success of the Yankees during this contract will ultimately determine his legacy.
Season prediction: Judge lives up to his new contract by continuing as the heartbeat of the Yankees’ lineup. That lineup went where Judge went last season. In the moments where he struggled, so did the entire offense. When he flourished, so did the Yankees. The outfielder has put together two straight seasons of strong health and New York will need him to continue that, especially as the rotation is plagued by injuries. — Lee
Machado turned 30 during the 2022 season, and if that midcareer performance was any indication, he’s well on his way to Cooperstown. Machado is one of baseball’s most consistent stars, not just in terms of production but also — and perhaps more importantly — durability.
On his way to finishing second in National League MVP balloting, Machado created more runs than ever in 2022 and reached triple digits in both runs and RBIs in the same season for the first time. His defense isn’t as off-the-charts as it once was, but he remains an excellent defender with the arm and speed to suggest he’s not going to have to move off the hot corner any time soon. Also, Machado’s sprint speed has remained largely unchanged and, over the past two seasons, he has stolen 21 bags in 25 attempts. Thus, the new rules could portend a career season on the basepaths for him.
Season prediction: Given the way the ball was flying off Machado’s bat during the WBC, he seems poised for another run at his first MVP award. He has continued to evolve as a hitter, adding more launch without becoming too pull-oriented. Machado’s RBI count in this particular San Diego lineup could be eye-popping, and if he does tack on some steals, his stat line in the context of a Padres run to the NL West title will be too much for NL MVP voters to ignore. — Doolittle
Freeman put together one of the best seasons of his career in the first year of his new contract in Los Angeles, hitting .325/./407/.511 with 21 homers and a 5.9 bWAR, the third-best mark of his 13-year career. The Dodgers’ lineup will be leaning on him even more this season with the departures of Trea Turner and Justin Turner. Freeman has been among the most durable players in baseball since he entered the league in 2010, playing fewer than 147 games just twice, in 2015 and 2017 (with the exception of the COVID-shortened 2020 season). Freeman’s exceptional ability to make contact will likely have him aging better than most hitters heading into their mid-30s.
Season prediction: Freddie Freeman continues being Freddie Freeman. Since 2013, he has hit below .300 just thrice. The Dodgers will need him to keep that level of production up, as the division gets tougher with the Padres’ recent big-ticket additions. — Lee
RF | San Diego Padres
How do you know you’re a future Hall of Famer? When you post clearly the worst season of your five-year career and you still have a .401 on-base percentage, an OPS+ that rates you as 49% better than a league-average hitter and you win your third straight Silver Slugger award.
Soto’s NL-leading 135 walks were paired with just 96 whiffs, underscoring his status as the game’s most disciplined hitter. But it’s not just take, take, take. When Soto gets a pitch to hit, he makes contact, usually hard contact. His dip in 2022 can be traced to a BABIP (.249) that was 60 points under his career mark. Part of that was because he became a little more launch-and-pull oriented but that need not be a permanent change. And even if it is, his in-play numbers in a post-shift world could be frightening.
Season prediction: Soto looked like he was in midseason form during the WBC — as in the middle of a career season — and after last season’s flirtation with playing like a mere mortal, expect a monster campaign as his future free agency (or a record contract extension before then) looms. What does a monster season look like for this guy? Something like .340, 45 homers, 150 walks, 8.0 WAR. And those estimates could be modest. — Doolittle
It’s hard not to go there. He was one of the game’s biggest stars as a rookie. He plays center field for the Mariners. He hits tape-measure home runs and makes impossible catches. He has the million-dollar megawatt smile. Ken Griffey Jr. had his own candy bar; J-Rod has his own cooking show.
At age 21, Griffey produced a 155 OPS+; Rodriguez, in his rookie season at age 21, produced a 147 OPS+. Griffey finished ninth in the MVP voting; J-Rod finished seventh. After going homerless in April and hitting just one in his first 34 games, Rodriguez hit .297/.358/.567 the rest of the way with 27 home runs in 99 games. Now imagine that over a full season. Enjoy, Mariners — and baseball — fans.
Season prediction: It’s hard to predict an MVP award in a league with Ohtani, but let’s go with Rodriguez hitting 35-plus home runs and finishing in the top three while leading the Mariners to — surprise! — a division title. — Schoenfield
Turner is the complete package. His combination of speed and power at shortstop is the reason why the Phillies invested $300 million in him. At various times in his career, he led the league in games played, plate appearances, at-bats, stolen bases, triples, batting average and total bases.
Last year might have been his best on the basepaths, as he stole 27 of 30 — good for a 90% success rate. He also hit 21 home runs, producing yet another season with an OPS over .800. He’s done it in four consecutive years, helping him to his huge new contract.
Season prediction: The new rules — starting with the bigger bases — will be a godsend for the speedy Turner. He’ll set a career high in steals with at least 50. — Rogers
RF | Los Angeles Dodgers
Betts, venturing into his age-30 season, is among the few legitimate five-tool players in the sport, despite being listed at 5-foot-9 and 180 pounds. He’s a gifted defender with a cannon for an arm, but he’s also one of the game’s fastest players and best all-around hitters, bringing elite bat-to-ball skills and, yes, power. Betts has finished within the top five in MVP voting four times over the past seven seasons, including last year, when he won his sixth Gold Glove and his fifth Silver Slugger. He is the only player to accumulate more than 200 home runs and more than 150 stolen bases from 2015 to 2022. The Dodgers will play him some at second base this year — and he’ll probably be great at that, too.
Season prediction: Two traditional numbers to keep an eye on with Betts: stolen bases and RBIs. Betts hasn’t reached 20 stolen bases since swiping 30 in 2018, but the bigger bases and the limited pickoffs should present more opportunities. He hasn’t driven in 100 runs since 2017, but the Dodgers would love to put him in more run-producing situations this season — if they can find someone else to lead off. — Gonzalez
Pitchers fear Arenado as much as anyone in the game: He’s hit at least 30 home runs in seven consecutive seasons (not including 2020). He also only struck out 72 times in 2022 while drawing 52 walks. In this era of baseball, that’s a great ratio for a power hitter.
There are some pitchers that like him: His own. It’s because he’s a vacuum at third base, winning the Gold Glove there in every year he’s been in the league. He also has five silver slugger awards, including last season when he finished third in MVP voting.
Arenado is arguably the best combination of offense and defense in the entire game — easily placing him in the top 20 players in MLB.
Season prediction: Arenado will swap with teammate Paul Goldschmidt and win the MVP in 2023. — Rogers
There was an early-20th-century pitcher known as Iron Man McGinnity. We might as well start calling the Marlins ace Iron Man Alcantara. He easily led the majors in innings pitched last season and is the only pitcher to top 200 innings each of the past two seasons. That’s fun, but you have to dominate to rank high on this list.
In 2022, Alcantara transformed from quality innings-eater to Cy Young winner — and don’t bet against him repeating. It all starts with a beautiful delivery from a lean, 6-foot-5 frame. If Michelangelo were to sculpt a pitcher, Alcantara would be his model. He throws 98 mph and that helps set up one of the most devastating pitches in baseball, his unhittable, nod-your-head-and-walk-back-to-the-bench changeup. Batters went 36-for-248 against it with 78 strikeouts and nary a home run.
Season prediction: Alcantara leads the majors once again in innings pitched, makes the All-Star Game and finishes in the top five of the Cy Young voting, although his ERA rises half a run (thanks, shaky Marlins defense!). — Schoenfield
1B | St. Louis Cardinals
At 34, baseball’s perennial MVP bridesmaid finally broke through with a season that really was another representative campaign for a player who posts nothing but terrific stat lines. Now a first-time reigning MVP, Goldschmidt will have his own tough act to follow after landing in the top three of the NL in all the slash categories and leading in slugging, OPS and OPS+ (a career-best 180). He also finished the season with an MVP-esque 7.8 WAR, according to Baseball Reference. While that 180 OPS+ is a high bar, don’t expect a collapse: Goldschmidt has posted 140 or better nine of his 11 full seasons. He’ll spend the next few years burnishing what is shaping up as a Hall-worthy resume.
Season prediction: Goldschmidt turned 35 late last season and eventually, his game will start to fray. There was no sign of that last season, but expecting a repeat of those numbers is probably unrealistic. Expect more of an “average” Goldschmidt season — 140-145 OPS+ — which is still awfully good. — Doolittle
Mr. Consistency. Ramirez is a baseball player in the way grizzled old scouts might describe a player who isn’t the strongest or the fastest or the biggest or the flashiest. Other than an inexplicable slump in the first half of 2019, he has been one of baseball’s best hitters — and best all-around players — since 2017. We can see that respect in his results in the MVP voting: third, third, second, sixth and fourth in five of the past six seasons. Ramirez already has 2.54 MVP Award Shares in his career — more than Rickey Henderson, Chipper Jones or Cal Ripken Jr.
He’s durable, he steals 20 bases every year, he strikes out fewer than 100 times a season, he swats doubles and home runs and he’s a solid defender. Nobody ever seems to call him one of the top 10 best players in baseball, but at the end of the season, he’s always right there.
Season prediction: This one is easy. Ramirez hits 32 home runs (give or take a few), drives in over 100 runs, leads the league in doubles for the third time and finishes in the top six in MVP voting. — Schoenfield
His sublime 2019 season at 21 years old — when he hit .280 with 41 home runs while leading the NL in stolen bases (37) and runs (127) and played with the frenetic enthusiasm of a pack of Shiba Inu puppies — is now a few years in the rearview mirror, but this ranking shows we haven’t forgotten about him.
When Acuña tore his ACL on July 10, 2021, he ranked fifth in the majors in home runs, fourth in stolen bases and fourth in OPS. When he returned last season, he wasn’t that same player. He had trouble elevating the ball and his power declined. By the end of August, he described his knee as “terrible,” but played through it. He now says he’s completely healthy — the Braves even let him play in the World Baseball Classic — and we’re betting on him finding that power stroke again and returning as one of the sport’s elite all-around talents.
Season prediction: I’d love to be bold here and say 40-40 — he did steal 29 bases last year despite not being 100% — but let’s go with a 30-30 season and his third All-Star Game start (and fourth appearance). — Schoenfield
At the All-Star break last season, a case could have been made for Alvarez to win the AL MVP. Judge changed all of that, but the fact remains, Alvarez has become one of the most dangerous lefties in the game. He and Judge were the only two players in baseball last season with an OPS over 1.000. And now he has done that twice in his career — not an easy stat line to achieve even one time.
Alvarez isn’t a great outfielder, but he has improved over time. With Jose Abreu entrenched at first base — and needing some at-bats at DH — it’s possible Alvarez plays more in left field. But he’s not being paid for his defense. The former rookie of the year will certainly have multiple chances at winning his first MVP because of his offensive prowess after finishing third in 2022.
Season prediction: Alvarez will lead the league in hit by pitches and intentional walks. — Rogers
Guerrero was one of the more difficult players to assess: Is he the absolute basher of 2021 when he was the best hitter in baseball and finished second in the MVP voting? Or the mere masher of 2022 who dropped to 29th among qualified hitters in wRC+ (weighted runs created)? That level of production greatly affects his value. A first baseman who is the 29th-best hitter isn’t one of the top 20 players in the game.
Guerrero does present a high offensive floor, however, and few batters can match his combination of power (94th percentile in hard-hit rate) and contact ability (79th percentile in strikeout rate). He ended up chasing out of the zone more often last year, leading to more weak contact, especially on the ground. He’s only 24, so our panel predicts he’ll make the necessary adjustments.
Season prediction: I’m going with the middle ground here between his superlative 2021 season and 2022, so that gives us 40 home runs with a .293 average and over 100 ribbies. That should make him one of the top 10 hitters in the game. — Schoenfield
After putting together the worst season of his career in 2021, Lindor looked much more like himself in 2022, slashing .270/.339/.448 with 26 homers and 16 stolen bases while putting together a strong season defensively. Since he entered the league in 2015, Lindor has been the game’s best shortstop with a 42.0 fWAR, which is 8.0 WAR more than Xander Bogaerts, the second-most productive shortstop in the same time period. While we still haven’t seen the 30-homer shortstop Lindor was in Cleveland, he remains among the most impactful players in the game and someone who will be critical for New York’s success if the team hopes to live up to its massive payroll.
Season prediction: Now with three seasons in New York under his belt and fully comfortable in that setting, Lindor puts together his best season as a Met. The dynamic shortstop finds more of a power stroke and continues his reign of elite defense. — Lee
3B | Atlanta Braves
When Riley broke out with a .303/.367/.531 season in 2021, that sparkling line was underpinned by a .368 BABIP. So what would a season look like if that number returned to earth? It would look like Riley’s 2022 season in which he led the NL in total bases, made the All-Star team and finished sixth in MVP balloting.
After two seasons of this, there’s no doubt that Riley has become one of the game’s shining stars and is perhaps even a little underrated from an attention standpoint. He is a pure basher who ranks in the top five percentile in Statcast metrics like exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit percentage. He swings big to generate that power and has the strikeout and swing-and-miss rates to show it. Those are the last dominoes to fall before Riley really makes a push for MVP and the time is right — he’s just hitting the prime of his career.
Season prediction: Now at a lofty, established performance level, expect Riley to make additional marginal gains. Look for him to tack on 20-25 walks and for a few more of his doubles to clear the fence, allowing him to reach the 40-homer mark for the first time in his career. — Doolittle
SP | New York Yankees
The Yankees signed Cole to a nine-year, $324 million contract in December 2019 and — in the aggregate, at least — have received everything they could have hoped for in a staff ace pitching within the nation’s largest market. Cole finished fourth, second and ninth, respectively, in AL Cy Young Award voting from 2020 to 2022. During that time, he has ranked first in the AL in wins (36) and innings (455), fourth in strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.50), fifth in WHIP (1.02) and 19th in ERA (3.28). He’s in his early 30s now, but his fastball velocity has maintained itself in the upper 90s. He hasn’t been able to match the eye-popping strikeout rates of his Houston days, but he has come close.
Season prediction: Cole was helped by a stellar defense behind him and gave up more home runs than anybody in the AL last year. At 32, he’s still a legitimate ace; but he might be starting to fade in the conversation for the game’s best pitcher. Others might replace him in 2023. — Gonzalez
While the Boston front office had felt hesitant in the past to give out long-term contracts, Devers is the homegrown star entering 2023 with a 10-year, $313.5 million deal. The reason is simple: Boston views his bat as a generational talent and something that will age well as he enters his age-26 season in the big leagues. While Devers has shown a power stroke at the plate early in his career, his ability to hit the ball to all fields is what makes him one of the game’s biggest offensive threats, slashing .295/.358/.521 in 2022. While his defense still ranks average among third basemen, he made large strides last season by improving his range and consistency on throws to first base.
Season prediction: Devers will keep chugging along as one of the game’s most dynamic offensive hitters. He’ll continue to work hard on improving his defense, so another step forward could be possible. — Lee
C | Philadelphia Phillies
The best catcher in the game isn’t far off from being a top-20 player but it won’t be his defense he needs to improve on to make the leap. As much as he provides at a weak offensive position, Realmuto will probably have to produce a near .900 OPS season to jump into that top 20. His career high is .840, achieved in the shortened 2020 season. Again, a great number for a catcher but below the top hitters in the game. He finished seventh in MVP voting in 2022, a career year where he won the gold glove and silver slugger award. It’s why he’s on the verge of being one of the best 20 players in the game.
Season prediction: With the new rules in play and Bryce Harper out of the lineup for several months, the Phillies might run more — and that would include Realmuto, who stole 21 last season. In 2023, he’ll become just the third catcher in MLB History to steal 30 bases in a single season. — Rogers
SP | New York Mets
Verlander won a Cy Young Award as a 39-year-old coming off Tommy John surgery. That alone should be enough to crack the top 25 on this list. What Verlander did as a member of the Astros in 2022 should go down as one of the most impressive seasons in baseball history. He did so while striking out more than a batter per inning, throwing his fastball in the mid-90s and accumulating 175 innings, during which he boasted a major league-best 1.75 ERA. The list of power pitchers who have excelled into their 40s is predictably short, featuring the likes of Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens. There’s no reason Verlander can’t join them.
Season prediction: There wasn’t really anything from 2022 that would indicate Verlander is anything but a top-shelf starting pitcher again in 2023. But this is still his reality: He’s 40 years old, coming off a season in which he pitched into November and accumulated nearly 200 innings when you count the playoffs. Expect some regression. — Gonzalez
Since the beginning of the 2020 season, only four pitchers have more bWAR than Burnes and only Cole has struck out more batters. While Burnes wasn’t quite as dominant last season as he was during his Cy Young campaign of 2021, he still managed to lead the NL with 243 strikeouts while topping 200 innings for the first time. He improved his third-time-through-the-order numbers and perhaps because of that, he worked deeper into games. Burnes’ homer rate more than doubled but some of that might have been some ill luck with his homers-per-flyball ratio. If that comes back in line and the workload stays as high, he could post his best season yet and push even farther up this list.
Season prediction: Burnes will be eligible for free agency after the 2024 season. Because of that, this will be a key campaign for his future earnings potential. He was terrific last season but his velocity was down a half-tick and he was hit hard more often. With a lot on line, look for Burnes to clean that up and once again figure prominently in NL Cy Young balloting. — Doolittle
Correa’s offseason adventure makes him one of the most intriguing players to watch in 2023. After all, the Twins were his default third choice. Everyone seems happy with the reunion, however, and the Twins end up getting an elite player at a discount — as long as the old ankle injury that scared off the Giants and Mets doesn’t prove problematic.
It’s hard to believe Correa is still just 28 years old. He remains in the prime of his career and shows the value of a player who hits — and hits for some power, at that — and plays good defense at a premium position: He has averaged 7.2 bWAR per 162 games in his career. His raw OPS last season was only the fifth highest of his career, but his adjusted OPS was the second highest. He has batted 600 times just twice in his career; if he can do that, he can be a top-20 player.
Season prediction: Correa plays 150 games for the first time since 2016 and sets a career high in home runs — and steals his first base since 2019. — Schoenfield
RF | San Diego Padres
We’re a society that tends to move on quickly, always so fast to focus our attention on what’s next. And that might especially be true for one Fernando Tatis Jr. “I think a lot of people are forgetting how special he is,” Tatis’ teammate, Jake Cronenworth, said in the days leading up to spring training.
It’d be understandable given the circumstances. But before missing the entire 2022 season — first with a wrist injury, then with a steroid suspension — Tatis was one of the most electrifying players in the sport, accumulating 81 home runs, 52 stolen bases and 13.2 FanGraphs WAR within his first 273 major league games. He’s only 24 and still perfectly capable of providing the most elite combination of power and speed, defense and overall baseball excellence. But he’s also coming off shoulder and wrist surgeries, a full year off and he’ll be transitioning from shortstop to right field.
Season prediction: People around the Padres expect an inspired, motivated, energetic Tatis in 2023, undoubtedly eager to get back to elite production after all the (self-imposed) negativity that surrounded him last year. Contending for an MVP might be unrealistic considering the shoulder and wrist surgeries and all the time off, but he’ll come close. And at times he’ll look like a Gold Glove-caliber outfielder. — Gonzalez
SP | Philadelphia Phillies
A stalwart during his eight-year career, Nola has made at least 32 starts in each of the past four full seasons. He even made 12 in the shortened 2020 campaign. That durability alone puts him among some of the best pitchers in the game. The 2022 regular season might have been his best, as he led all pitchers in strikeout-to-walk ratio, whiffing 235 batters while walking only 29.
He also finished fourth in Cy Young voting but didn’t perform well late in the playoffs. The first two rounds were great for Nola but his NLCS and World Series numbers weren’t very good — he gave up 14 runs in 13 innings. A repeat regular season with a solid postseason would elevate him to a top-20 player in the game, but right now, he’s on the outside looking in.
Season prediction: Austin Nola will join a rare group of hitters to homer off their brother when the Phillies and Padres face off this season. They opposed each other in the playoffs last year, with the elder brother going 1-for-2 off the younger one in the NLCS. — Rogers
SP | New York Mets
He’s now 38 years old but Mad Max is as dominant as ever, even if he has lost a little in fastball velocity relative to the rest of the league. Indeed, his 2.29 ERA in 2022 was a career low (although with 145⅓ innings, he failed to qualify for the ERA title for the first time since his rookie season) and his 169 ERA+ was the second best of his career.
His command, deep arsenal of five pitches and ability to keep batters guessing remains supreme — and you have to admire that he still loves to just rear back and challenge hitters at times with the old No. 1 down the middle. His strikeout rate ranked in the 89th percentile, his walk rate in the 95th percentile and his whiff rate in the 83rd percentile. He’s no longer a 220-inning pitcher, but if Scherzer goes back to his usual 30 starts, don’t rule out Cy Young contention.
Season prediction: There’s nothing in the metrics that suggest Scherzer is slowing down. The only seasons since 2013 he hasn’t finished in the top five of the Cy Young voting were 2020 and last season (and that was only because he missed some time). It’s hard to predict health, but let’s go with 200 K’s, an ERA under 3.00 and another top-five Cy Young finish. — Schoenfield
SS | San Diego Padres
The 30-year-old shortstop now joins a Padres team where he is expected to be an offensive focal point, alongside Machado, Soto and Tatis. Bogaerts solidified his place among the game’s best shortstops in a contract season, hitting .307/.377/.456 with 15 homers and a 5.7 bWAR. Since he entered the majors in 2013, he ranks second in fWAR among all shortstops, trailing just Lindor and ahead of Trea Turner and Correa. Bogaerts has also made large strides as a defender throughout the course of his career, qualifying as a Gold Glove finalist in 2022. Given his skill set and strong abilities as a hitter, expect his game to age well into his 30s.
Season prediction: Bogaerts’ power numbers go down a notch in the spacious Petco Park, but he’ll stay one of the game’s best contact hitters. He’ll be a consistent doubles threat for the Padres while also making defensive strides. — Lee
1B | New York Mets
Alonso topped the NL with a Mets-record 131 RBIs, tying Judge for most in the majors. OK, RBIs are more than a little team-dependent and according to the Bill James Handbook, Alonso led the majors with 308 RBI opportunities. Still, his 42.5% RBI rate ranked in the top 10 of the majors. In other words, he clears the bags. It’s not hard to understand why, since Alonso is a highly aggressive hitter who averages 45 homers per 162 games during his career.
The downside of that approach is that he chases too many pitches and given the care with which pitchers work him (he led the NL in intentional walks and among 130 qualified hitters, only eight saw a lower rate of pitches in the strike zone), that lack of selectivity is what stands in the way of him ranking with the game’s elite overall hitters.
Season prediction: Expect Alonso to hit around .267/.348/.518 with 40-plus homers and 100-plus RBIs, which is roughly an average of what he did over the past two seasons. While there are some obvious areas in which Alonso could improve, at 28 he is what he is. And for the Mets, that’s plenty good. — Doolittle
SP | Cleveland Guardians
The 2022 season brought with it an evolution for Bieber, the AL’s Cy Young Award winner in 2020. Bieber had seen the velocity on his four-seam fastball continually diminish, from 94 mph in 2020 to 93 mph in 2021 to 91 mph in 2022. But he has altered his pitch mix in order to combat it, beginning to use his slider more often than his curveball, and he has seen results. Bieber finished the 2022 season seventh in Cy Young voting, posting a 2.88 ERA and reaching precisely 200 innings. Alarm bells were ringing in Cleveland when Bieber got shelled by the Blue Jays on May 7, allowing seven runs with a fastball that barely cracked 90 mph. From that point forward, he posted the 10th-lowest ERA in the sport.
Season prediction: You probably wouldn’t be surprised to learn that Bieber’s strikeout rate has dropped over time, from 41.1% in 2020 to 33.1% in 2021 to 25% in 2022. But his walk rate last season, 4.6%, was barely more than half what it was the year before. Bieber is a different pitcher, but still a very effective one. Expect that to continue. — Gonzalez
Few prospects over the past decade — maybe none since Bryce Harper — reached the majors with as much fanfare as Franco when the Rays called him up in 2021 as a 20-year-old who oozed future batting champ with his sweet line-drive stroke and exquisite contact ability. No, he hasn’t hit .300 … not yet anyway (he just turned 22). After hitting .331 in his first 28 games to start the season in 2022, he battled some injuries that affected his production and eventually landed him on the IL. He returned in September to hit .322 with more walks than whiffs. With this ranking, we’re still buying into that .300 potential and ability to smoke lasers all over the park while playing a solid shortstop.
Season prediction: After hitting .288 in his 2021 rookie season and .277 last season, the projection systems see Franco in the .280 to .285 range. I’m going a lot higher: .322 and the AL batting title. — Schoenfield
SP | Atlanta Braves
Only an epic season by Miami’s Alcantara stood in the way of Fried landing his first NL Cy Young Award. Still, the lefty ace keeps inching his way to new heights with each passing season. He was on the mound more in 2022, with 30 starts and a career-high 185⅓ innings while slicing his walk rate and allowing fewer homers.
Fried’s consistency and dominance for the annually contending Braves has allowed him to go 52-20 since 2019, a .722 winning percentage. His 32 games over .500 during that span is matched only by the Yankees’ Cole. Fried’s career strikeout rate (8.8 per nine innings) is a touch below the game’s top starters in this high-strikeout era and if anything is unnecessarily keeping him out of the conversation around baseball’s top pitchers, that’s probably the reason. It’s not hard to argue that he should maybe rank higher on this list.
Season prediction: According to Statcast, Fried’s use of his changeup went from 2.2% in 2021 to 14.1% last season. Hitters hit just .173 with a .218 slugging percentage against that offering. Fried is a hard worker and intense competitor who continues to evolve his arsenal with experience. That he keeps getting better is no accident. If he’s able to do that again in 2023, and he finished second in the Cy Young voting in 2022, where would that leave him? Exactly. — Doolittle
SP | Philadelphia Phillies
Injuries have slowed Wheeler at various times of his career but when he’s healthy, he’s a borderline top-20 player. In fact, he hasn’t produced an ERA over 3.00 since 2019. Wheeler finished second in Cy Young Award voting in 2021 and probably would have been closer to the award last season if not for an arm ailment that sidelined him for several starts in 2022. He made 26 starts overall and dealt with some fatigue in the World Series. A repeat of that 2021 season, when he made 32 starts, would probably return Wheeler to top-20 status. His fastball/curveball combination is among the best — and so is Wheeler.
Season prediction: Wheeler will join Nola as the only teammates to throw 200 innings this season. — Rogers
SP | New York Yankees
There’s no doubt that when Rodon is healthy, he’s one of the best in the game. Over the past two seasons, he has lived up to the potential that made him a top-3 pick in the 2014 MLB draft out of NC State. With the Giants, he had 31 starts with a 2.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP while striking out 237 in 178 innings. The major question mark will be health, though. A forearm strain has already put him on the IL to start the 2023 season. Last year marked the first time in Rodon’s career that he made more than 30 starts in a season. Whenever he is on the mound, he will certainly show why he earned himself a six-year, $162 million deal, but the question is how many times he will actually toe the rubber.
Season prediction: When healthy, he takes the Yankees rotation to another level. What’s harder to predict is how many starts the lefty will actually make. If the Yankees make a deep run this postseason, Rodon will play a major role. — Lee
Baltimore needed Rutschman to live up to the hype as one of the top prospects in baseball and he exceeded all expectations, displaying a strong ability to get on base while providing some of the best defense in baseball behind the plate. In 113 games, Rustchman hit .254/.362/.445 with 13 homers and a 5.2 bWAR, placing him second in all of baseball behind Realmuto. If the Orioles expect to take another step forward, they will need Rutschman to continue looking like one of the best catchers in the sport.
Season prediction: Rutschman will keep building on his status as one of the game’s best defensive catchers while taking a step forward offensively as he continues adjusting to big league pitching. Any increased production will make him among the game’s most valuable players. — Lee
SP | Tampa Bay Rays
There was perhaps no more dominant pitcher in last year’s first half than McClanahan. Armed with a devastating four-pitch mix, McClanahan posted a 1.71 ERA in 110⅔ innings, striking out 147 batters while walking only 19 and starting the All-Star Game. But the second half featured a non-serious shoulder injury and mediocre results, including four starts in which he gave up more than three runs and didn’t get into the sixth inning. So McClanahan went about working on his body this offseason. He stretched more diligently and improved his diet, and the Rays believe the 25-year-old right-hander can be even better in 2023. There’s no reason why his first-half success can’t extend for a full season. The stuff is there.
Season prediction: McClanahan will rise to another level in 2023 and contend for the AL Cy Young Award, displaying some of the best stuff in the sport and tapping into more consistency throughout the year. — Gonzalez
SP | Seattle Mariners
During Castillo’s years with the Cincinnati Reds, there were frustrating bouts of inconsistency and control lapses, though he was an All-Star in 2019 and then again in 2022 before his trade to the Mariners. He seemed to put everything together last season, going 8-6 with a 2.99 ERA and the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career.
It took less than two months for the Mariners to love what they saw and sign him to a five-year, $108 extension and then give him the ball for the franchise’s first playoff game in 22 years. He promptly dominated the Blue Jays with 7⅓ scoreless innings. He throws 97 with a great changeup and wipeout slider, and with a full year at T-Mobile Park — it must feel like the Columbia River Gorge after all those years in Cincinnati — he’s primed for his best season yet.
Season prediction: Castillo has won just 16 games the past two seasons combined. He’s going to win 16 in 2023 and pick up some down-ballot Cy Young votes for the first time in his career. — Schoenfield
RF | Houston Astros
Tucker is slowly advancing up the list of most dangerous lefties in the game, in part because of his ability to hit lefties. His career .808 OPS against left-handed pitching isn’t all that different from his .853 one vs. righties. Of course, that was all achieved with the shift in place. Without it, Tucker’s 2023 batting average should go up after hitting .257 in 2022.
Tucker just keeps getting better. He has an 11 bWAR combined over the past two seasons, finishing 20th in MVP voting in 2021 and then 15th in 2022 to go along with his first All-Star appearance and first Gold Glove for his outfield defense. More of the same will keep Tucker rising in the ratings. It’s not impossible for him to be a top-20 player going into 2024. He has the talent.
Season prediction: Tucker takes another leap, repeating as Gold Glove winner while hitting 35-plus home runs with a batting average at least 20 points higher than his 2022 mark. — Rogers
3B | Houston Astros
When we last ran MLB rank in 2021, Bregman was a top-15 fixture. He was sixth in 2019, 12th in 2020 and 13th in 2021. But after three solid seasons that were well off his peak in 2018-2019, he’s landed here. It seems about right given what his new level of play seems to be after three years and over 1,200 plate appearances. Peak Bregman was the full package — elite power, lots of walks, elite run run production, even some steals. The new version has similar strike-zone mastery and exit velocities but the BABIP results just haven’t been the same. Though he hits righty, the shift has been a bane for Bregman and perhaps its departure will be a boost.
Season prediction: While Bregman might not have any more 40-homer seasons in him, it would be surprising if there isn’t another MVP-level season or two in his future. The Astros will be fine either way: Houston has advanced at least to the ALCS in all six seasons since Bregman became a regular. — Doolittle
If you want a poster boy for how the elimination of the shift might help some hitters, Seager is your guy. According to Baseball Info Solutions, Seager hit .112 on ground balls and short line drives hit between first and second base in 2022. As a result, Seager, who hit .297 in seven seasons with the Dodgers, saw his average plummet to .245 in his first year with the Rangers. BIS estimates Seager would have gained 29 additional hits under 2023 rules — and his average would thus climb to .293. Look for better numbers from Seager with the new rules and perhaps an even higher ranking in 2024 as he tops 30 home runs again and hits much closer to .300.
Season prediction: Look for better numbers from Seager with the new rules and perhaps an even higher ranking in 2024 as he tops 30 home runs again and hits much closer to .300. — Schoenfield
CF | Atlanta Braves
No young player had as meteoric a rise in 2022 as Harris. While he was a consensus top 100 prospect entering the season, his highest ranking was ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel at No. 38 and he had played all of 2021 in High-A. It looked like he would spend the season at Double-A Mississippi.
Nobody expected this: just 43 games in Double-A, a rushed promotion to the majors when the Braves needed a center fielder, a sudden development in his power and, frankly, emerging as one of the best players in the league over the final four months. He finished at .297/.339/.514 with 19 home runs, 20 stolen bases, excellent defense and a nice Rookie of the Year trophy. Some expect pitchers to figure out how to exploit his aggressive approach, but Harris can flat hit. Imagine what will happen if he improves his plate discipline.
Season prediction: If there’s a Michael Harris fan club, sign me up. The computers forecast regression, but I’m predicting more of the same: Let’s go with a 30-30 season, a trip to the All-Star Game and a Gold Glove. — Schoenfield
SP | Houston Astros
With three wins in three starts and just two runs allowed over 19⅓ innings in the ALCS and World Series, Valdez is a big reason why the Astros are the reigning champions. He really came into his own in 2022, leading the AL in innings, while completing three games and winning 17, all while putting up an ERA+ of 137. For all of that, Valdez finished fifth in the AL Cy Young balloting and made his first All-Star team.
Valdez didn’t do much differently last season in terms of arsenal, he was just a better, more precise pitcher who attacked the bottom of the strike zone, rarely missed in the middle of the plate and routinely put away hitters with his outstanding curveball. All Valdez really has to do to move up the rankings from here is to do it all over again. This time, he’ll get a chance to show his stuff as the ace of the Astros’ rotation now that Verlander has moved on.
Season prediction: Valdez sat out the WBC rather than pitching for the Dominican Republic after his jump in regular-season innings was followed by the heavy load he carried in October. The Astros might not overwork him early in the season, but beyond that, there is no reason to think that Valdez will fall off from last season’s form. Expect more of what we saw in 2022. — Doolittle
Cease needs more exposure. He nearly became one of those rare pitchers to miss out on the All-Star team but win the Cy Young award in the same season (he ended up finishing second in Cy Young voting to Verlander last year). Playing for the underachieving White Sox didn’t help matters. It’s partly why he’s not in the top 20 despite coming off a dominant 2022 campaign.
Cease has one of the most devastating sliders in the game, which led him to strike out an AL-best 227 batters last season. But he also walked the most in the AL, 78, though not many of those runners came back to haunt him considering his 2.20 ERA for the year. A reduction in walks while keeping his other numbers intact will continue to open eyes around the league for Cease.
Season prediction: Cease’s batting average against on balls in play has fluctuated greatly throughout his career. He’s due for a higher one in 2023, which could cause his ERA to rise. He won’t repeat the 2.20 mark in 2022 — it’ll be closer to 3.00 this year. — Rogers
SP | Texas Rangers
Nobody doubts that deGrom is one of the best pitchers of his generation, but his health remains a concern. DeGrom made 26 total starts across 2021 and 2022. While he still showed the stuff that made him one of the most feared pitchers in the entire sport, the 34-year-old righty took a step back in terms of his product, posting a 3.08 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 64⅓ innings pitched. How deGrom ages as he heads into the back half of his 30s will play a monumental role in the success of Texas in 2023 and beyond.
Season prediction: When he’s healthy, deGrom remains a nightmare for hitters, but this availability remains the biggest question. The righty has not thrown more than 20 games per season since 2019 (including the shortened 2020 season), and he is not getting any younger. — Lee
You rarely hear on-base percentage quoted in regards to pitchers, but Gallen was the anti-OBP hurler in 2022. He led the NL in WHIP and hits allowed per nine innings while holding opponents to a measly .252 OBP. He also sliced his home run rate in half and sliced more than a walk per nine innings from his 2021 season.
The end result was a new pitching star rising in the desert as Gallen posted a 2.54 ERA over 185 innings and finished fifth in NL Cy Young balloting. He mostly ditched his slider last season and developed a four-pitch arsenal built off a wickedly effective, high-spin four-seamer and the metrics of all of his offerings were excellent. He does this without elite raw velocity, though he did add a tick of zip in 2022. At 27, he’s just getting rolling.
Season prediction: Gallen’s .237 BABIP will be hard to repeat but his career mark (.264) is well below last season’s MLB average (.293), so he has plenty of room to allow for a little regression. Even if Gallen’s ERA and WHIP rise because of a higher BABIP, don’t despair, because he’s a complete pitcher who should remain one of the NL’s top hurlers. — Doolittle
SP | Los Angeles Dodgers
After years of innings restrictions and occasional bullpen assignments, the Dodgers finally let Urias ride as a full-time, no-questions-asked starting pitcher in 2021 and watched him instantly become one of the game’s best. Urias led the majors with 20 wins in 2021 and led the NL with a 2.16 ERA and a 194 ERA+ in 2022. If not for the incredible dominance of Alcantara, he could have won the Cy Young. And yet, Urias finished third in the voting. He is criminally underrated, partly because he plays on the West Coast and partly because he doesn’t light up a radar gun like some of his peers. But few have better command. And when he becomes a free agent next offseason, few will be more coveted.
Season prediction: Urias’ success as a pitcher continues to trend in the right direction, and the 2023 season, his last one before free agency, could be his biggest one yet. If he remains healthy, expect him to make his first All-Star team — yeah, that’s right, he hasn’t made one yet — and vie for the Cy Young once more.
At times it feels as if Urias has been in the big leagues for a long time, but he’s only 26 and has accumulated less than 600 career regular-season innings. There’s plenty left to tap into. — Gonzalez
C | Los Angeles Dodgers
Smith has accumulated 9.7 fWAR since settling in as a regular behind the plate in 2020, a total surpassed by only two catchers — Realmuto and Sean Murphy. At 27 years old, Smith has established himself as one of the game’s best at his position, particularly on the strength of his bat. Smith has a .261/.356/.501 slash line in nearly 1,500 career major league plate appearances, even more impressive when considering the physical demands of his position. He slugs, but he is also patient. Smith boasted the 14th-lowest chase rate in the majors last year at 21.2%.
Season prediction: Smith will be more important to the Dodgers’ lineup than ever, with Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger gone and Max Muncy and Chris Taylor coming off down seasons. He’s currently slated to hit third, right behind Freeman. Expect him to DH more often this season, given the presence of Austin Barnes and top prospect Diego Cartaya. The Dodgers need his bat in the lineup as often as possible. And this could be Smith’s best year from a run-production standpoint. — Gonzalez
2B | Cleveland Guardians
The 24-year-old second baseman put together a breakout season in 2022, hitting .297/.371/.466 with a 7.2 bWAR. Gimenez’s defense catapulted him into one of the game’s more valuable players, but there are some questions about whether the Guardians’ infielder can repeat the success given the 40-point differential in his expected batting average (.257) and actual average (.297). While his 17 homers last season look like an outlier compared to his career numbers, expect him to make an impact on the basepaths after stealing 20 bases in 2022.
Season prediction: Gimenez will still be an above-average hitter but expect his power numbers to take a step back while his production equalizes with the expected sabermetric numbers given his contact rate and exit velocity. — Lee
SS | Toronto Blue Jays
In totality, Bichette’s 2022 season — .290/.333/.469 slash line, 24 home runs, 13 stolen bases and the AL lead in hits for a second straight year — was a profound success. But the 25-year-old shortstop navigated his fair share of peaks and valleys offensively and once again struggled with errors defensively. Bichette’s 47 errors trail only Javier Baez for the most among shortstops since the start of 2021. But that’s the kind of thing that tends to get cleaned up as a player matures. So do pronounced highs and lows. Bichette showed down the stretch what kind of premier talent he is, while OPS’ing 1.105 after the start of September.
Season prediction: Bichette probably won’t OPS above 1.000 for a full season, but he certainly has the talent to do so. He is a superstar navigating a portion of his career when players typically are still getting significantly better. FanGraphs projects a 4.4 WAR from him this season. If he’s healthy, his 2023 WAR should start at least with a 6.0. — Gonzalez
SP | Atlanta Braves
It was quite a year for Strider, who started the season in the Atlanta bullpen, soared once he hit the rotation, nearly won the NL Rookie of the Year award and capped it all by signing a six-year, $75 million extension. How was your 2022?
Strider emerged as one of baseball’s most dominant young pitchers, flashing a fastball that averages 98 miles per hour and a strikeout rate (13.8 per nine innings) that looks like a typo. The only downside for him was a late-season oblique injury that might have cost him NL rookie honors (won by teammate Harris) and limited his contribution to Atlanta’s playoff effort. Strider is mostly a two-pitch pitcher at this point, though he’ll sprinkle in a changeup against lefties, so it’s raw power that is currently earning him his bread. Obviously the Braves have seen more than enough to believe he can build off his dazzling rookie campaign.
Season prediction: Strider’s stuff is so overpowering that for now, it’s all he needs to get through an order a couple of times. To become a bedrock starter who can sometimes work deep, he’ll need more than two pitches. His spring work didn’t suggest he has that, so for now, expect more sharp, dominant outings. — Doolittle
SP | Toronto Blue Jays
Manoah is clearly a pitcher getting better with every season. He dropped his ERA by a run from 2021 to 2022 and increased his innings pitched by 85. He’s emerged as the Blue Jays’ ace, though his one postseason start (last year) wasn’t a good one. Still, Manoah is likely to be a Cy Young candidate again as he continues to mature. His sweeping slider is effective against both righties and lefties, as hitters have a hard time producing hard contact and slugging off of him. Players slugged .314 against him in his first two seasons — and that number alone makes him worthy of his position in the rankings.
Season prediction: Manoah puts it all together in 2023 and wins his first Cy Young award while surpassing 200 innings pitched for the first time in his career. — Rogers
SS | Houston Astros
His strong rookie season and World Series MVP award helped Astros fans quickly move past the departure of Correa. Peña lived up to his reputation as a strong fielder, but he also displayed more power than expected, hitting 22 homers in 136 games with a .253/.289/.426 batting line. There’s certainly room for growth with the young shortstop, but he ranked alongside Trea Turner and Ha-Seong Kim in terms of their impacts on the field, hovering around a 4.8-4.9 bWAR.
Season prediction: Peña takes a step forward with his batting average while maintaining his elite glove, solidifying himself as one of the game’s most valuable shortstops. — Lee
1B | Atlanta Braves
Every generation needs that big, slugging lefty first baseman who swats impressive home runs and swings from his heels with absolutely no remorse. Olson wasn’t quite as good in his first season with the Braves as he was with the Oakland Athletics in 2021 — due to a higher strikeout rate that cut into his batting average — but still belted 78 extra-base hits and drove in 103 runs. He showed in 2021 that he can be more than a “Three True Outcomes” slugger, although that’s what he became in the second half of 2022, when his average fell to .219 and his doubles rate fell way off. We’ve seen him play at an All-Star, top-10 MVP level, but there’s enough inconsistency here to keep him out of the top 50.
Season prediction: So far, his low strikeout rate in 2021 looks like a career outlier as his swing-and-miss rate was much higher against fastballs in 2022. I’d bet on a batting average closer to .240 again as opposed to the .271 mark in 2021, but in this Braves’ lineup, he’s a good bet to once again crack 100 RBIs with his 30-homer power. — Schoenfield
There’s a reason Swanson signed for $177 million with the Cubs during the offseason: He’s a really good player. There’s also a reason it was way less than what three other star shortstops signed for. Swanson is good, especially on defense, but he has yet to prove offensive consistency. His home run totals have increased over the years, but so have his strikeout numbers. Even he admits he needs to find the right balance between contact and power.
The Cubs are also paying for leadership. Swanson is known for wanting one thing out of his baseball life: to win. He did that in Atlanta, and now he’ll pave the way for a new roster of Cubs trying to find their way back to the postseason.
Season prediction: There might be some early struggles as Swanson tries to live up to his big contract — it happens all the time — but he should find his power stroke to left field once the summer hits Wrigley. Thirty home runs is not out of the question — but neither is 150 strikeouts (again). — Rogers
SP | Milwaukee Brewers
Woodruff has been one of the game’s most consistent starters over the last four seasons, a span in which his per-inning production has been truly elite. At 6’4″ and 244 lbs., Woodruff has the look of a classic top-of-the-rotation starter. He has the repertoire and stuff to dominate consistently and enough diversity in his offerings to remain effective deep into games. And yet Woodruff’s career high in innings as he enters his age-30 season is 179⅓. Injuries have usually diverted his run to the top ranks of big league starters, though arm injuries, strangely enough, haven’t been the issue. As such, it feels like his career season is still in his future.
Season prediction: Like co-ace teammate Burnes, Woodruff has not been extended by the Brewers and has one more season of arbitration eligibility before he hits free agency. Over the second half of last season, Woodruff was as good as any pitcher in the game. If the intersection of momentum and motivation means anything, the portents for 2023 are lined up in his favor. — Doolittle
CF | Baltimore Orioles
Mullins’ offensive numbers took a slight dip from 2021 to 2022, with his OPS going from .878 to .721. He walked less, didn’t slug nearly as much and produced slightly fewer line drives. But he also produced elite center-field defense, contributing nine outs above average, and added 34 stolen bases. In other words: He hit enough to still be considered one of the sport’s best all-around players at his position. His 9.3 fWAR over the last two years ranks fifth among outfielders, topped only by Judge, Soto, Betts and Alvarez. That’s pretty good company.
Season prediction: Mullins isn’t an elite exit-velocity guy, and his numbers will often be susceptible to batted-ball luck. Is he the hitter of 2021 or 2022? Something in the middle is probably a safe bet, though his 2022 drop in barrel percentage should warrant some concern. He should still be young enough (28) to bring all the other speed-related elements that make him stand out. — Gonzalez
2B | New York Mets
McNeil put together one of the best seasons of his career in 2022, hitting .326/.382/.454 with nine homers, winning the batting title and posting a career-high 5.7 bWAR. The Mets rewarded his success with a new four-year, $50 million contract, locking up a key member of New York’s core lineup. The second baseman is one of the best contact hitters in the sport, striking out just 242 times in 2,039 career plate appearances, bested by just nine players with at least 1,000 plate appearances since his debut in 2018. His versatility continues to be an asset as well, with 100 games at second base and 46 in the outfield in 2022.
Season prediction: McNeil’s game figures to age well — he turns 31 in April — given his reliance on contact over power. While it’s unfair to expect him to win the batting title again in 2023, he has just one season in the big leagues where he has hit below .300, and the Mets expect him to be a lineup catalyst for a group hoping to compete for the World Series. — Lee
RF/DH | Philadelphia Phillies
It doesn’t take a baseball expert to understand why Harper is where he is on the list, as he’ll be out more than half the season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. His return will certainly boost the Phillies’ chances, and he’ll undoubtedly continue as one of the most feared hitters in the game. But for the rankings, availability is as important as productivity, so for now Harper is on the outside of the top 50 — though, he easily could be in a different place going into next season.
Season prediction: Harper returns with a bang in late July but struggles to find his footing. He’ll be a .230 hitter while hitting 12 home runs in the second half. — Rogers
RP | Cleveland Guardians
In the original incarnation of our rankings, there were but two relievers so dominant that they earned a spot on the list. Edwin Diaz then suffered that devastating knee injury in the WCS, so now Clase, who won last year’s Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year award, stands alone as baseball’s top fireman entering the season. He’s earned that status by becoming one of the rarest of baseball phenomenons: The consistent reliever.
In his case, Clase isn’t just consistent — he’s consistently dominant. Over the last two seasons, Clase has a surreal 1.33 ERA over 142⅓ innings. In 2022, he saved 42 games in 46 chances and earned wins in two of the games in which he blew the save. He does this with a cutter-slider combination so unhittable that to describe it as “nasty” hardly seems sufficient. The cutter in particular is almost — dare we say? — Rivera-esque.
Season prediction: There is zero reason to think that Clase’s game is going to tail off any time soon, especially when a “bad” season for him at this point would be a two-something ERA. — Doolittle
CF | Miami Marlins
He’s on the cover of “MLB The Show” video game, he was named to his first All-Star Game in 2022 and he popularized the ice cream-themed glove. Now, Chisholm has to stay healthy after missing the second half with a stress fracture in his lower back and adjust to a new position as the Marlins move him from second base to center field. To his credit, it was Chisholm who went to the Marlins with the idea, so he has embraced the change with enthusiasm. There’s no doubting the massive upside here after he hit 14 home runs with 45 RBIs and slugged .535 in 60 games. Those numbers over 150 games: 35 home runs and 112 RBIs. That sounds like an All-Star center fielder.
Season prediction: Hey, don’t dismiss that 35-homer potential. He’s averaged 27 per 162 games in his short career, and he’s just 25 with only 205 career games. With his tools, there’s still a chance he could explode if everything comes together. I’ll go 30 home runs and 25 steals, and if he can cut down on the K’s, he has superstar potential. — Schoenfield
SS | Chicago White Sox
There was a time when Anderson would have ranked higher on the list, since he has a batting title under his belt. But injuries zapped some of his ability last season and though he hit over .300 for the fourth consecutive year, it came in only 79 games. A healthy, available Anderson may move him back up the rankings.
Meanwhile, playing in the WBC this spring can only help raise his game and potentially his leadership. During the tournament, Trout said that Anderson had the best opposite field swing in the game. That’s some high praise. If he’s on the field the entire season, he may win another batting title yet.
Season prediction: Anderson hits over .320 while he and Elvis Andrus make a surprisingly good double play combination. Anderson might even get some time at second base, where he shined during the WBC. — Rogers
In four months, Reynolds — one of few baseball players to publicly request a trade — is expected to be one of the most coveted players from executives looking to solidify their teams for the stretch run. Toss aside a fan-less shortened 2020 season, and he has been about as productive as they come, slashing .292/.371/.496 in his three full major league seasons. The Pirates have expressed a desire to keep Reynolds long term, but there are no indications that the two sides are close on an extension. He is coming off a sluggish — by his standards — 2022 season, one that saw his OPS drop by more than 100 points and his defensive metrics fall off even more dramatically. But several GMs would undoubtedly line up to trade for him nonetheless.
Season prediction: Reynolds’ strikeouts picked up and his walks declined in 2022, which is usually a troubling sign. He chased more often, particularly against fastballs. He saw more high fastballs last year, and he struggled mightily against them, slashing .074/.133/.185. Reynolds won’t get back to his 2021 self until he makes that adjustment. — Gonzalez
OF | Toronto Blue Jays
Springer remains a top-of-the-lineup catalyst with his blend of power, speed and patience. Among 64 hitters with at least 100 plate appearances from the lead-off spot last season, Springer ranked in the top five in hits, runs, homers and RBIs, while landing at 14th in OPS. He still plays the game with panache via his big swings at the plate and daring dives on the basepaths.
Still, after finishing in the top 40 of the last five editions of these rankings, Springer fell down the pecking order mostly because he just can’t stay on the field enough. He hasn’t played in more than 140 games since 2018 and made it into just 133 contests last season for Toronto. During his two seasons with the Blue Jays, Springer has hit the IL with an oblique strain, a strained quadriceps, a sprained knee and an inflamed elbow. This last malady resulted in surgery last fall to remove bone spurs.
Season prediction: Now 33, Springer’s playing time has to be carefully managed, especially as it seems unlikely that the abandon with which he has always played is going to disappear. The injuries will come, and rest will be needed. That’s all fine for the Blue Jays if Springer is right when October comes around and he gets another shot to show why he’s one of the great postseason players of his generation. — Doolittle
CF | Minnesota Twins
We all know the story. Over the past four seasons, Buxton has hit .258/.316/.558 while playing Willie Mays defense in center field. He has averaged an incredible 8.3 WAR per 650 plate appearances since 2019 — except that’s more PAs than he had in 2021 and 2022 combined. Of his 28 home runs in 2022, 11 of them went more than 425 feet, including two over 450. The power/defense combo is so impressive that if he could play 130 games, he’d be one of the best players in baseball with top-15 overall potential. But he’s now 29 and played 100 games just once in his career. There have been players who had careers ruined or shortened with injuries, but Buxton’s career is turning into a weird, one-of-a-kind “what if?”
Season prediction: Yeah, right — you may as well ask me to make my stock picks for the next 12 months or predict the weather for the first game of the World Series. There’s 40-homer power here if he stays healthy, but I wouldn’t count on that. — Schoenfield
2B | Texas Rangers
After a very slow start for his new team in 2022, Semien brought the lumber. All but one of his 26 home runs was hit after June 1. That kind of volatility might be expected for a player joining a new organization with a big contract. Semien isn’t going to go up the rankings as he enters his mid-30’s, but that doesn’t mean he has to go down either. He should age well playing second base after giving up on shortstop in signing with Texas a year ago. His power at that position makes him special, though he’s not likely to repeat his 2021 performance, when he hit 45 home runs for Toronto.
Season prediction: Semien’s power numbers will continue to decrease playing in pitcher-friendly Globe Life Field. He’ll hit under 20 home runs in a full season for the first time since 2018. — Rogers
C | Atlanta Braves
As much as anything, the Braves seem to believe in certainty when it comes to their long-term design. Find a young player you like and keep that player for as long as you can in an exchange of security (for the player) and team-friendly terms. And so Murphy becomes the latest example of that design after Atlanta acquired him in a hot stove trade and almost immediately inked him to a six-year, $73 million extension to become Atlanta’s backstop now and for the foreseeable future.
This ranking, which is well-deserved, illustrates why the Braves have such faith in a player who has yet to play a regular season inning for them. Murphy is one of the game’s top two-way backstops who hits for power, draws walks, handles his position so well that he was the AL’s Gold Glove catcher in 2021 and even has some postseason experience. He’s also durable and hits well enough that he can help out frequently at DH on days he isn’t catching.
Season prediction: The only catchers to have won a Gold Glove in both leagues are Bob Boone and Tony Pena. Supplanting Realmuto in the NL won’t be easy for Murphy, but he’s got a chance to join the list. He frames well and with an elite pop time, his ability to gun down would-be base thieves could be accentuated under the new rules. — Doolittle
2B | Houston Astros
As with Harper, Altuve would have ranked a lot higher, but the broken thumb he suffered in the World Baseball Classic will keep him sidelined indefinitely and well into the season. When Altuve scuffled through a rough COVID-shortened 2020 season, it appeared Father Time might have been starting his victory lap, even if it was just a 48-game sample. Altuve has proven every skeptic wrong throughout his career and did so again. The 2022 season was one of his best, as he matched his MVP year of 2017 with a 160 OPS+ and finished fifth in the AL MVP voting.
Even without the injury, Altuve was a good bet to regress, at least a little. He turns 33 in May, and despite launching 39 doubles and 28 home runs last season, his hard-hit rate was the lowest of his career. That’s cause for concern, although he doesn’t swing and miss much, and he did show sudden growth in his plate discipline, with big improvements in chase rate and walk rate. If that holds, he’ll continue to age well.
Season prediction: Altuve’s .300 batting average last year was 31 points higher than his expected batting average going into the season. We don’t know how the injury will ultimately affect his power, but his launch angle and ability to pull everything is ideal for home runs. I think the average takes a dip back into the .270 range that it was in 2021. — Schoenfield
CF | New York Mets
Nimmo had the best season of his career in 2022, earning him an eight-year, $162 million contract to stay in New York. The 29-year-old outfielder put together a strong offensive season, hitting .274/.367/.433 with 16 homers while continuing to make big strides as a defensive player. He represents one of the backbones of the Mets’ lineup as one of their most consistent producers. As important as his production is, so is his leadership in the clubhouse as a tone-setter — he brings energy to Citi Field on a daily basis.
Season prediction: Nimmo will continue to be a catalyst near the top of the lineup while providing solid outfield defense. The Mets don’t need him to be anything more than what he’s been throughout the last few seasons: solid and dependable. — Lee
What follows is a partial list of players who appeared in at least 120 games in their age-22 season or younger and put up less than 2.3 fWAR: Jimmy Rollins, Altuve, Arenado, Freeman, Adrian Beltre, Robinson Cano, Bogaerts. And that’s just dating back to 2000. So, don’t ring the alarm bells on Witt just yet. Thriving in the major leagues at that age is exceedingly difficult. Witt’s rookie season — 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases, but also a .254/.294/.428 slash line and more than four times as many strikeouts as walks — was a disappointment when considering the hype that surrounded him. But it doesn’t mean he won’t be a star. It didn’t for any of those other names.
Season prediction: The Royals knew Witt wouldn’t play much in the WBC, but they wanted him to experience that environment. They thought it could speed up his development and turn him into a better player. It’ll work. Witt will take a big leap in 2023 and vie for the All-Star team. — Gonzalez
SP | Houston Astros
Javier keeps inching his way towards a monster season. He appeared as a starter and reliever both in last year’s regular season and postseason. That’s how valuable he was to the Astros’ run to a title. This year, he may find his way to the top of the Astros’ rotation or at least right behind Valdez. His fastball has so much life on it, he should blow past 200 strikeouts in 2023. As is, he had 194 in 148 innings last season, good for an eye-popping 33.2% strikeout rate. One of every three batters went down by strikeout against Javier. He could be a Cy Young candidate if those numbers continue over the course of 32 starts.
Season prediction: If healthy, Javier will lead the league in K’s with over 250. — Rogers
He was my pick for NL Cy Young winner in 2022, and while that didn’t happen, he proved his terrific run down the stretch in 2021 was no fluke as he went 15-9 with a 2.90 ERA and just 11 home runs allowed in 192⅓ innings. Webb is the antithesis of modern pitchers: He throws a low-spin sinking 91-mph fastball that produces grounders instead of strikeouts, and he gets batters to chase his slider and changeup. We’ll see if the shift ban hurts him more than other pitchers, but I expect his throwback style, pitch efficiency and command will lead to another strong season.
Season prediction: More of the same. He’s had two back-to-back excellent seasons, and while I’m a little worried about the Giants’ defense at second base without the shift, I’m looking for an ERA around 3.00 with close to 200 innings once again. — Schoenfield
3B | Baltimore Orioles
How does a player with all of 132 plate appearances and a .259 batting average end up in our top 100? Faith. Faith in the prospect hype and faith in the flashes of brilliance we saw from him during his 2022 debut as a proof of concept. As Henderson retains rookie status, he’s still eligible in the prospect rankings and thus landed the coveted top spot in this year’s edition of Kylie McDaniel’s Top 100. He’s got power, defense, a strong arm, the speed to steal 20 bases or more and minor-league OBPs that suggest an advanced approach at the plate. Along with fellow phenom Rutschman — last year’s top prospect — Henderson is at the vanguard of what looks like a dawning era of contention in Baltimore.
Season prediction: Henderson enters the season as a leading AL Rookie of the Year candidate. At the same time, his minor-league line jumped from a .258 average and .826 OPS in 2021 to .297 and .946 a season ago. Some regression wouldn’t be a shock, both because of that leap and because development doesn’t usually happen in a linear fashion. And yet he’s so good, he might be the ROY anyway. — Doolittle
OF | Arizona Diamondbacks
Carroll has played in only 32 major league games and already looks like one of the most exciting players in the sport. He can hit for average, slug, provide elite defense and run with the best of them — and he brings that level of enthusiasm every time he plays. The COVID-19 pandemic wiped out minor league baseball in 2020 and shoulder surgery robbed him of most of 2021, but Carroll looked like a man who hadn’t missed a beat in 2022. In what amounted to his first full season of professional baseball, Carroll scorched through Double-A and Triple-A, OPS’ing 1.036 with 24 home runs and 31 stolen bases in only 442 plate appearances. The D-backs had no choice but to call him up late in the season, and Carroll accumulated 1.4 fWAR in about a month. He’ll maintain rookie eligibility for 2023 and should be a clear favorite for ROY.
Season prediction: Carroll will win the NL Rookie of the Year Award and turn a lot of heads in 2023, helping the D-backs make a surprising run for a playoff spot. — Gonzalez
2B | Atlanta Braves
Last year was a frustrating one for Albies, as he played just 64 games because of a broken left foot and broken right pinky, and his offense was down when he did play. At his best, he generates surprising power from his small frame, hitting 30 home runs and ranking fifth in the majors in extra-base hits in 2021 (when he also drove in 106 runs) and tied for 15th in 2019. Albies has his mind set on a big season … very big: “I’ll take 30-30,” he told The Athletic, referring to 30 home runs and 30 steals (his career high is 20). “But my goal is to go 40-40.” The Braves will happily take 150 — as in 150 games played.
Season prediction: I’m a little concerned here even though Albies is just 26. He’s been injured in two of the past three seasons, and his plate discipline hasn’t gotten any better, despite the Braves’ best efforts (and, in fact, he had a career-worst chase rate last season). Still, he has a knack for pounding out those extra-base hits. I’ll go .250 with 25 home runs and 35 doubles — a little below what we saw in the rabbit ball years of 2019 and 2021. — Schoenfield
SP | New York Yankees
There’s a reason why Nasty Nestor emerged as a fan favorite during the 2022 season. The crafty lefty put together a breakout 2022 campaign, posting a 2.44 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 28 starts en route to making his first All-Star team. In a year where Cole was inconsistent, Cortes proved to be one of the team’s most reliable performers. The Yankees were cognizant of not overusing him last season — he had never pitched more than 93 innings in the big leagues — so with a full offseason under his belt and a secure rotation spot, Cortes could take another step forward in 2023.
Season prediction: Cortes will keep proving there’s a way to succeed as a starter in the big leagues without top-tier velocity. He’ll need to make sure his command remains on point, but the creative mix of pitches, arm slots and windup movements makes him a dynamic pitcher for the Yankees’ rotation. — Lee
SP | Cleveland Guardians
By trying to do a little less in 2021, McKenzie accomplished a whole lot more in 2022. His strikeout rate dropped from 27.5% to 25.6% of opposing batters, but he more than offset that dip by slicing his walk rate and managing his effort to work deeper into games. He averaged 4.8 innings per start in 2021 but that figure soared to 6.3 last season as he finished with 191⅓ innings pitched and doubled his quality start count. McKenzie leaned less frequently on his fastball, even though he still has just a three-pitch mix. Even without a deep arsenal, McKenzie’s numbers remain strong even as he gets into the third time through an opposing lineup.
Season prediction: From here, it’s a matter of fine tuning the command. While McKenzie was much better at attacking the strike zone last season, he did go through spates where he caught the middle of the plate too often, and his homer rate would spike. Given his rate of improvement so far, the Guardians can look to further gains in this area. — Doolittle
SP | Minnesota Twins
It will be interesting to see how a former Marlins pitcher performs knowing he’ll have more offense backing him. Lopez should get a boost from playing with the Twins over the offensively-challenged Marlins. He put together a solid season in 2022, but there’s room to grow. The biggest step in his game last season was simply making all 32 starts, cementing him as a mid-rotation guy in the big leagues. Righties hit .218 off him last season, fifth lowest in the NL. His cutter is becoming an often-used pitch and his change-up is already really good.
Season prediction: Lopez surpasses 200 innings for the first time in his career while getting over five runs of support per game. — Rogers
SP | San Diego Padres
Some players struggle with the pressures of starring for their hometown team. Musgrove has embraced it, using it as motivation to elevate himself to a higher level. The 30-year-old right-hander has posted a 3.06 ERA and accumulated 362⅓ innings in his first two years with the Padres, while helping to front the rotation of a star-studded team with grand expectations.
Rather than venture into the open market this offseason, Musgrove signed a five-year, $100 million extension with two months left in the 2022 regular season. He is now one of the faces of the team he grew up rooting for — right up there with Machado, Tatis and Bogaerts — while the Padres navigate the most exciting time in franchise history. And he wouldn’t have it any other way.
Season prediction: The last four years have represented steady growth for Musgrove. In 2022, he was an All-Star for the first time. In 2023, he’ll be in the Cy Young discussion for the first time — as long as he wears sneakers in the weight room. — Gonzalez
LF | Cleveland Guardians
We’ve been so indoctrinated by today’s power-driven game that sometimes we forget that players like Kwan can not only still exist but excel, too. He hit .298/.373/.400 and won a Gold Glove in left field despite one of the lowest hard-hit rates in the game. His 5.5 bWAR was the best by a Cleveland rookie since Kenny Lofton in 1992. He makes it work because of impeccable strike-zone judgment — he swung and missed just 91 times out of 1,006 swings. Only Luis Arraez had a better contact rate.
The projection systems forecast regression, however, his contact ability, defense, speed and plate discipline give him a high floor of 3 WAR even if the average drops 20 points. But here’s betting on .300 in 2023.
Season prediction: Hey, I just said .300! Let’s go with .304 with 100 runs scored and another Gold Glove. — Schoenfield
SP | San Diego Padres
The Padres, throwing money around at a neck-breaking pace, signed Darvish to a six-year, $108 million extension, a deal that will amazingly pay him through his age-41 season. “If anybody is able to pitch a little bit later in their career and get this type of an extension, it certainly is him,” Padres manager Bob Melvin said.
Over these last two years, Melvin has gained a deep level of respect for the way Darvish works and cares about his craft, a trait that could allow him to overcome the issues that plague pitchers in their late 30s and early 40s. From 2017 to 2022, the 36-year-old ranks ninth in the majors in strikeouts and 17th in innings while posting a 3.66 ERA.
Season prediction: Darvish’s expansive repertoire allows him to adjust better than anybody, and last year was no different. He featured the lowest strikeout rate of his career, but also one of his lowest walk rates. His cutter, fastball and slider continue to make up the vast majority of his offerings, but Darvish can constantly change their sequencing and introduce several other pitches that continually keep hitters honest. With such a potent offense behind him, he can be an All-Star for the second time in three years in 2023. — Gonzalez
LF | Philadelphia Phillies
Schwarber went from being DFA’d after the 2020 season to hitting 46 home runs last year for Philadelphia. He’s played in the postseason for three different teams and just completed his first stint on Team USA in the WBC. That’s why he’s a top-100 player. But unless he reduces his strikeouts — he had exactly 200 last year — and raises his career .233 batting average, he’ll remain in the lower half of these rankings. He has vowed to address the former stat, and the elimination of the shift should address the latter one. As is, Schwarber is a valuable power hitter with playoff experience up-and-down his resume.
Season prediction: The elimination of the shift will indeed raise his batting average — one scout said as high as .270 — but the strikeouts and home run totals will remain the same. — Rogers
3B | Toronto Blue Jays
Chapman has not replicated his breakout 2018 season, but he maintained his status as one of the game’s best defensive third basemen in 2022 while providing power at the plate, hitting 27 homers and slashing .229/.324/.433. He is entering a contract year, and with the free-agent market hitting a new apex this past offseason, he could be poised to receive a major payday if he puts together a strong season — especially if he improves his batting average, which has not been above .232 since the 2019 season. Chapman will be the biggest name on the third base free-agent market with Machado having already signed an extension.
Season prediction: Chapman will continue his reign as one of the game’s premier defenders. Many around the Blue Jays believe that 2022 represented Chapman’s floor, and that with a major incentive to improve at the plate this season, the third baseman could put together his best year since 2018. — Lee
2B | Miami Marlins
Any Marlins fan in attendance at the WBC quarterfinal in Miami might have gotten the wrong idea when Arraez mashed a pair of homers for Venezuela against the U.S. That’s not the player they’ll see for the most part now that he’s joined the Fish. Instead they’ll see a hitter with such elite bat control and contact ability that in his Minnesota days, one could compare him to Rod Carew without being scoffed at. Arraez won his first batting title last season, hitting .316 for the Twins in the AL. Miami, in case you’re wondering, has had two batting champs: Hanley Ramirez and Dee Strange-Gordon. Arraez will be a strong candidate to join the list as long as he’s in Miami.
Season prediction: DJ LeMahieu is the only hitter to win a batting crown in both the AL and the NL. Arraez owns a career average of .314, a number good enough to win the crown in the senior circuit twice in the last five years. Now that he has switched leagues, LeMahieu may have company on this very short list a year from now. — Doolittle
LF | Tampa Bay Rays
First it was the 2020 MLB playoffs, then the 2023 World Baseball Classic. There is something about this guy in big moments. Arozarena will spend the rest of his career in the shadow of his postseason exploits of 2020 when he homered 10 times in 18 games, but he has settled into a solid all-around player who does a little bit of everything, posting seasons of 4.1 bWAR in 2021 and 2.9 in 2022. He had 41 doubles, 20 home runs and 32 steals last season. Yes, that’s a bit of statistical spaghetti, but that was just the 25th time that has been done, and the first since Mookie Betts did it in 2018. He cut his strikeout rate 4% last season, and if he can cut it another 4%, he can climb a little higher on this list.
Season prediction: Arozarena is already 28, so you wouldn’t really expect improvement at this point. His swing and launch angle are more conducive to doubles than home runs, so I’ll stick with 20 home runs. It will be interesting to see if the Rays let him run, as he loves to be aggressive on the bases (sometimes TOO aggressive). Don’t rule out 40 steals. — Schoenfield
SP | Toronto Blue Jays
Gausman was solid in his first season with the Blue Jays in 2022, but the numbers didn’t necessarily pop the way they did with the Giants in the prior season. Look closer, though. Gausman had a 3.35 ERA that ranked 25th in the majors, but a 2.38 FIP that ranked second. Opponents’ batting average on balls in play against Gausman was .364, by far the highest for any qualified pitcher (second, interestingly enough, was Gausman’s teammate, Jose Berrios). The Blue Jays essentially needed better defense. And they took major steps there by adding Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho to their outfield.
Season prediction: Backed by a better defense, Gausman will make one of the biggest leaps in the sport, ERA-wise, and re-establish himself as a top-flight pitcher for a team that will contend for a division title. — Gonzalez
RF | New York Mets
If Marte could put together an injury-free season, he might be higher on this list. Nagging injuries have kept him from his full potential the last couple of seasons, though he continues to produce .800-plus OPS seasons through them. After having offseason surgery on his groin, it remains to be seen if he’ll be fully healthy come Opening Day. Even this spring, he had a scare after getting hit in the helmet by a pitch. Marte still has three years remaining on his deal with the Mets, who could use a big season out of him considering injuries they’ve incurred elsewhere on the roster. Marte dropped from 47 stolen bases in 2021 to 18 last season. Will that number increase again if he’s healthy for a full season?
Season prediction: Marte will steal 30 bases again, providing at least a 20/20 season for the Mets — if he’s healthy. — Rogers
SP | Los Angeles Dodgers
The fastball velocity erodes, the back continues to be a problem, and yet Kershaw is still pitching at a Hall of Fame level. Take just these last two years, when the proverbial thought was that he had fallen off. There were 105 pitchers who made at least 40 starts from 2021 to 2022. Only 13 had a lower ERA, only three had a lower WHIP and only two had a higher strikeout-to-walk ratio. When he’s on the mound, few are better than Kershaw. He’s 35 now, and there’s no reason why that still wouldn’t be the case. The only question is how much longer he wants to do this.
Season prediction: Kershaw has basically settled into who he is at this point. He’ll be susceptible to home runs and perhaps spend a stint or two on the IL, but he’ll pound the strike zone, prevent runs and, when he’s out there, continue to perform at an elite level, even if the radar gun indicates that he shouldn’t. — Gonzalez
SP | Tampa Bay Rays
There’s an argument to be made that Glasnow’s torn UCL was the difference between the Rays making a run to the World Series in 2021 versus exiting in the first round after a 100-win season. A healthy Glasnow still holds that potential. The 29-year-old righty returned in 2022 after recovering from Tommy John surgery and started Game 2 of the wild-card series between the Rays and the Guardians, allowing two hits and no runs in five innings while striking out five. If Glasnow stays healthy, he’s a critical part of Tampa’s success, but he’s started more than 20 games just once in his career.
Season prediction: It’s undeniable that Glasnow is one of the best pitchers in the game when he’s on the mound, but how much he’s on the mound is the actual question. He’s already missing the start of the 2023 season with a strained oblique, and his career numbers suggest that making more than 20 starts is an anomaly rather than a trend. But if he stays healthy, watch out for the Rays. — Lee
1B | Houston Astros
If all you knew about Abreu was that he was two years removed from an MVP award and just signed a three-year free agent contract, you’d think the champion Astros just snagged themselves an in-his-prime superstar. That might not be precisely the case, but even at 36, Abreu remains a premier run producer who will likely slot right into the cleanup slot in Houston.
His RBI count dropped to 75 last season, and it wasn’t just a function of diminished opportunity, as his RBI percentage fell from 42% to 31%. His homers fell from 30 to 15 and isolated power fell from .219 to a career low .141. Still, Abreu hit .304, and his exit velocities and barrel rates remained largely unchanged. Clearly, the Astros noticed.
Season prediction: Abreu is a hard worker, remarkably consistent, a leading clubhouse voice and enters the coming season on a quest for his first World Series ring. You can pretty much count on another 100-RBI season even if his power doesn’t rebound all the way back to pre-2022 levels. — Doolittle
SS | Milwaukee Brewers
Adames continued his ascent as one of the game’s best shortstops in his first full season with the Brewers, hitting 31 homers with a .238/.298/.458 batting line in 139 games. Adames has been especially lethal in high-leverage situations, hitting .306/.333/.514 in 120 plate appearances in 2022. Additionally, the shortstop has been strong with runners in scoring position with two outs, hitting .302/.429/.603 in 77 plate appearances in 2022. And that’s before you factor in his glove. Adames has one of the best arms for a shortstop in baseball and ranks among the best NL shortstops in outs above average and runs prevented.
Season prediction: The biggest variable is the batting average. Expect Adames to hit for power, but if he’s also able to add hitting for a higher average to his repertoire, he will be flying up these charts, especially considering his defensive prowess. — Lee
SP | Seattle Mariners
After a strong rookie season in which he went 8-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 25 starts, Kirby is a popular breakout candidate for 2023 — especially after posting a 3.02 ERA in a second half in which he allowed just one home run. With excellent control (just 22 walks), a 95-mph fastball that he can dial up to the upper 90s and a six-pitch repertoire (he threw each at least 8% of the time), it’s easy to see why many expect a big season.
He needs to get better against right-handers after they hit .324 against him, and he’s working on a new splitter since six pitches apparently aren’t enough. Improving the slider to give him a better swing-and-miss pitch against right-handed batters will be vital in order for him to make a leap.
Season prediction: If the new splitter and the new slider that he started late last season prove effective, Kirby is a great sleeper Cy Young pick. I won’t go that far yet, but look for 15 wins and an ERA around 3.00. — Schoenfield
CF | Chicago White Sox
Perhaps the most talented player to be this low on the top 100, Robert simply has yet to put it all together in the big leagues. Injuries have stopped him in his tracks — he’s played the equivalent of one season over the last two. He just hasn’t been impactful in any meaningful way, but few can deny his talent. On paper, Robert is a five-tool player but nagging ailments have limited his ability to hit or run. For now, he’s a top-100 talent, but that may be all he’ll be unless he can stay healthy.
Season prediction: Robert made it through the WBC without injury, so that’s a good sign. A 30-30 season isn’t out of the question if he stays on the field. — Rogers
OF | Toronto Blue Jays
Varsho’s days behind the plate are probably over. He’s just too good of an outfielder. He contributed a major league-best 18 outs above average last year for the D-backs, who dealt him to the Blue Jays because they simply had too many young, promising, left-handed-hitting outfielders. The 26-year-old also contributed some with the bat, adding 27 home runs and 16 stolen bases to finish with a 4.6 fWAR. The Blue Jays, though, need him mostly to cover ground in their outfield. They’re hoping the steps they took on the run-prevention side — adding Varsho, Kevin Kiermaier, Chris Bassitt and Erik Swanson — will be enough to take the AL East.
Season prediction: Varsho will once again be basically a league-average hitter, but he’ll steal at least 20 bases, play Gold Glove-caliber defense and be worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 5.0 WAR. The Blue Jays will gladly take it. — Gonzalez
C | St. Louis Cardinals
The project of Contreras stepping into the proverbial shoes of retired Redbirds legend Yadier Molina has many levels. He’s replacing the best catcher in franchise history. He’s replacing a nine-time Gold Glover. He’s replacing one of St. Louis’ most beloved athletes and the leader of the clubhouse. And, in Contreras’ new partnership with Adam Wainwright, he’s taking Molina’s place in baseball’s most prolific battery. On top of all that, Contreras has to live up to a five-year, $87.5 million contract in an intense baseball city. It’s a lot. But if any player has the make-up to fill all of those shoes, it’s the hyper-competitive Contreras. It won’t take long for Cardinals fans to realize they now have their best everyday offensive catcher since Ted Simmons.
Season prediction: From a numbers standpoint, it is all but certain that Contreras will be a sizable offensive upgrade from Molina because of his combination of power and patience. But initially, the focus will be on Contreras’ defense and ability to work with the St. Louis pitching staff. Don’t expect him to fail. — Doolittle
3B | Pittsburgh Pirates
Hayes represents the hope that Pirates fans have for the future of the ballclub. The 26-year-old third baseman put together a strong season in 2022, posting a 4.3 bWAR while hitting .244/.314/.345 with seven homers and 20 stolen bases in 136 games. He added muscle to his frame this offseason in hopes of improving his power numbers. While Hayes certainly has room for improvement offensively, he’s already among the league’s best defensively at the hot corner, routinely making highlight reel plays.
Season prediction: Hayes takes a big step forward, developing his power stroke while continuing to improve the strides he’s made as a base stealer in the major leagues. He represents a potential franchise cornerstone if he can keep improving in the manner he has over the last few seasons. This could be the year he goes from one of the game’s most overlooked players to a top-tier star. — Lee
2B | Arizona Diamondbacks
One more season like 2022 and Marte will find himself outside the top 100. His OBP dipped to .321 last year (his lowest since 2016), he struck out over 100 times for the first time in his career and his defense declined. A hamstring injury may have contributed to his struggles, but he was scuffling before he got hurt. The Diamondbacks are counting on Marte to lead their team to postseason contention, and while some of his underlying numbers are worrisome, he remains a candidate for a rebound season.
Season prediction: Marte improves on some of his offensive numbers but remains a high strikeout player. He’ll whiff over 100 times for the second consecutive season and second time in his career. — Rogers
After getting down-ballot Cy Young votes each season from 2019 to 2021, Giolito thought it was a good idea to add more mass. The 6-foot-6 right-hander weighed a hulking 280 pounds in 2022, but it didn’t lead to better results as he went 11-9 with a 4.90 ERA. He’s back to his old weight, dropping 35 pounds, but it was a decline in fastball velocity that was perhaps what hurt him most last year. His four-seamer averaged 94.2 mph in 2019, but it has steadily dropped since then and was down to 92.6 in 2022. In 2019, batters hit .203 and slugged .364 against it; in 2022, they hit .283 and slugged .449. He’s going to have to regain some fastball mojo to stay in the top 100.
Season prediction: That fastball velocity is trending in the wrong direction. He wasn’t as bad as that 4.90 ERA indicates, and he should be better in 2023, but I wouldn’t put him at the top of my Cy Young contenders. — Schoenfield
SP | Seattle Mariners
Gilbert made some encouraging strides in his second season as a major league starting pitcher, lowering his ERA from 4.68 to 3.20 and accumulating 185⅔ innings. But his exit data — 91 mph average exit velocity, 45.6% hard-hit rate — offered up some troubling signs. Gilbert rose through the ranks largely off his fastball command; however, it’s the development of his slider that is going to elevate him. A curveball with more depth has been incorporated to offer another variation from the two pitches.
Season prediction: Expect another step forward for Gilbert in his age-26 season, but also some ups and downs. His exit data has been consistently subpar the last two years, with hitters slugging both his fastball and his slider. Those offerings need to improve. — Gonzalez
RF | Seattle Mariners
Calling an established big league player “toolsy” can almost be looked at as a pejorative, but the label works for Hernandez because he’s paired his strengths in tools with enough skill to build up a solid track record of production. He ranks in the top five percentile in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, per StatCast, and also ranks high in barrel rate, sprint speed and arm strength. There are holes in his game, to be sure. He chases too much and has a high swing-and-miss rate. His metrics as a defender lag behind his tools. But over the last five seasons, he’s averaged 34 homers, 97 RBIs and 89 runs per 162 games with a 121 OPS+. After moving from Toronto to Seattle via trade over the winter, he’ll now try to help the Mariners get over the hump in their pursuit of their first AL pennant.
Season prediction: There will be a lot on Hernandez’s shoulders in 2022. Not only will he be hitting cleanup for a new team, the coming season will be the platform campaign before his first foray into free agency. He’s already 30, which is not a great age for a first-time free agent, so he, and the Mariners, have a lot riding on a big season. A forecast: He’ll get it. — Doolittle
OF/DH | Chicago White Sox
The former top prospect came into spring training on a mission, after having lost 25 to 30 pounds this offseason. Jimenez changed his diet, giving up red meat while eating more chicken and salmon in an effort to replicate the body that helped him emerge as one of the game’s most promising young players in the minor leagues. The White Sox outfielder is still just 26 years old, although he has yet to show the superstar production many expected out of him as one of the game’s best young prospects, struggling with injuries in 2021 and 2022. When he was on the field in 2022, Jimenez looked solid, hitting .295/.358/.500 with 16 homers in 84 games.
Season prediction: Jimenez takes a step forward after an offseason of hard work. Health will be the biggest x-factor, but his success is one of the focal points of Chicago’s progress in 2023, with a clubhouse of young players struggling to fulfill their true potential. — Lee
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Greg Wyshynski
As a service to fans who have a general interest in the National Hockey League but have no idea what has happened since the Florida Panthers raised the Stanley Cup by defeating the Edmonton Oilers last June, we’re happy to provide this FAQ as a guide to the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs.
And for you die-hard puckheads: Here is your official refresher before the games begin Saturday. Enjoy!
Read more:
Full schedule
Megapreview
Playoff Central
Contender flaws
Where did all the usual suspects go?
History was made in the NHL this season, but not the kind that its most storied U.S. franchises wanted. The 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs mark the first time that the Boston Bruins, Chicago Blackhawks, Detroit Red Wings and New York Rangers have all missed the cut in the same postseason:
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Detroit was supposed to finally emerge from one but missed the playoffs for the ninth straight season, despite an in-season coaching change — the sixth season without a postseason berth under GM Steve Yzerman
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The Bruins fired their coach 20 games into the season, only to eventually ship out a number of veteran players at the trade deadline while missing the playoffs for the first time in nine seasons
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The Rangers went from the league’s best record to finishing eight points out of the playoffs, and could see major changes in the offseason
The New York Islanders, Nashville Predators and Vancouver Canucks were all 2024 playoff teams that didn’t make it back this season. Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins missed the playoffs for the third straight season.
So the 2025 postseason won’t have a number of glamour franchises and superstar players. But that just creates room in the spotlight for others to emerge.
Can the Panthers repeat?
The Stanley Cup champion Panthers finished third in the Atlantic Division with 98 points, down significantly from their 110-point season a year ago. Injuries were a factor: Captain Aleksander Barkov was limited to 67 games, and spiritual leader Matthew Tkachuk played only 52 games and hasn’t been in a game since the 4 Nations Face-Off in February. Top defenseman Aaron Ekblad was also limited to 56 games after being suspended 20 games for violating the terms of the NHL/NHLPA performance-enhancing substances program. The earliest he can return is Game 3 of the Panthers’ Battle of Florida first-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
All of this is to say that we haven’t really seen what this version of the Panthers is going to look like with all systems go. There are some constants from last year’s Cup-winning roster: Sam Reinhart was brilliant again, with 81 points in 79 games and could win the Selke Trophy as the league’s best defensive forward. Clutch playoff performers Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett, as well as defensive rock Gustav Forsling, are back for another run.
But it’s a different supporting cast. Defensemen Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and forwards Vladimir Tarasenko and Kevin Stenlund moved on after last season. Florida made two blockbuster additions to bolster their group before the trade deadline, acquiring defenseman Seth Jones from the Blackhawks and Bruins captain Brad Marchand.
The Panthers certainly have the players for a third straight trip to the Stanley Cup Final and a repeat as champions. It’s just a matter of whether they all fit as snugly as they have previously under head coach Paul Maurice. If nothing else, the first round should give us our first look at Marchand and Tkachuk both yapping on the same team. Humanity might never be the same.
If they win the Battle of Florida, can the Lightning win the Cup?
The Lightning finished second in the Atlantic with around the same record as last season, but they feel like a much more dangerous team.
Tampa Bay led the NHL in goals per game, powered by winger Nikita Kucherov, who was the league’s top point scorer this season (121) while setting up Brayden Point (42 goals) and Jake Guentzel (41 goals) for dominant seasons. Winger Brandon Hagel had 90 points in 81 games, and was one of the NHL’s best all-around players; ditto center Anthony Cirelli (27 goals), who’s in the conversation for the league’s top defensive center this season.
On the blue line, former Norris Trophy winner Victor Hedman led his teammates in average ice time by nearly two minutes.
But it’s the reemergence of star goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy that has bolstered the Bolts’ Stanley Cup chances. He had his best season since 2020-21, and was recently named the league’s top goalie in a survey of his peers. If Vasilevskiy can carry that over to the postseason, where he always has been at his best, the Lightning could be in business.
Tampa Bay hasn’t escaped the first round since losing in the 2022 Stanley Cup Final to Colorado, which followed consecutive Cup wins for the Lightning. Perhaps seeking to recapture that magic, GM Julien BriseBois reacquired two players from their title reign: defenseman Ryan McDonagh, who has been outstanding this season after being traded from Nashville; and center Yanni Gourde, a trade- deadline pickup from Seattle who has fit right back in with the Lightning.
If they can get past their archrivals — admittedly, a big “if” — the potential for another boat parade in the bay isn’t out of the question.
What can we expect from the Battle of Ontario?
The NHL wild-card format exists to maximize the potential for rivals to meet in the postseason, and it worked like a charm in the Eastern Conference: Not only is there another Battle of Florida, but the Battle of Ontario has been reignited between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators, the latter of whom finished in the first wild-card spot to end a seven-year playoff drought.
These rivals met four times between 2000 and 2004, with Toronto winning each time. We don’t want to say Senators fans are salivating at the chance to take down the Atlantic Division-leading Leafs, but the streets of Ottawa are currently flooded.
The Maple Leafs are still on their quixotic mission to win the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1967. As usual, there are reasons to believe. Winger Mitch Marner, an unrestricted free agent this summer, had 100 points in 80 games. Forwards William Nylander (45 goals) and Auston Matthews (77 points in 66 games) were dominant, while pending free agent John Tavares regained his point-per-game form.
Toronto’s hopes rest on the pads of goalies Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz, who led the Leafs to the fourth-best team save percentage in the NHL in the regular season. But questions about their lack of playoff experience (a combined eight games) and ability to remain healthy linger.
The Senators’ playoff berth marks the first time Brady Tkachuk has participated in an NHL postseason — other than being a spectator at his brother’s games. He’s the driving force behind an Ottawa team with strong young talents in forward Tim Stutzle (76 points) and defenseman Jake Sanderson (55 points).
But the key is goaltender Linus Ullmark, acquired from the Bruins last summer. He had a solid regular season but has a career postseason record of 3-6 with a .887 save percentage, all with Boston. He has something to prove.
When Ovechkin re-signed with the Capitals, there was a promise made by Washington to remain a playoff contender around him as he chased down Gretzky so Ovechkin wasn’t just compiling goals in meaningless games. No one could have predicted the Capitals would retool to the point where they finished atop the Eastern Conference.
The Capitals were the second-best team offensively and finished in the top 10 defensively this season. Offseason bets on players such as forward Pierre-Luc Dubois, defenseman Jakob Chychrun and goalie Logan Thompson paid off, while homegrown talents Aliaksei Protas and Connor McMichael thrived — as did star defenseman John Carlson, who had his best season in years.
But the Capitals are a mystery in the playoffs. When they play coach Spencer Carbery’s system to perfection, they can beat anyone in the league. But beyond Ovechkin, there isn’t another established star difference-maker in the lineup. That has made some observers skeptical that their regular-season success could transfer over the playoffs. But what an incredible cap to an all-time season it would be if Ovechkin raised his second Stanley Cup — and his first as the NHL’s goal-scoring GOAT.
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Ovechkin tells McAfee his chase for the goal record was great for hockey
Alex Ovechkin joins “The Pat McAfee Show” to discuss his achievement of surpassing Wayne Gretzky as the all-time goals leader and the impact on the game.
Are the Devils toast without Jack Hughes?
New Jersey was well on its way to returning to the playoffs when it lost leading scorer and No. 1 center Hughes to a shoulder injury, which is expected to keep him out until next season’s training camp.
Hughes had 70 points in 62 games. Since Hughes went out, the Devils are 9-10-1 for a .475 points percentage, 23rd in the NHL in that span. They were also without top defenseman Dougie Hamilton, who was injured one game after Hughes went out. Hamilton returned to the lineup in their regular-season finale.
It’s hard to conceive that the Devils could win the conference without Hughes, but players such as center Nico Hischier and winger Jesper Bratt stepped up significantly in his absence. Whether the Devils make any noise in the playoffs comes down to their goaltending, and specifically Jacob Markstrom, who has the ability to steal games but hasn’t consistently shown this season — much like the team in front of him.
Is this the year Carolina breaks through for a championship run?
For years, the Hurricanes have fallen just short in the playoffs, losing in the conference finals twice and the second round three times under coach Rod Brind’amour. Usually the culprit has been their inability to get a key goal at a key time in a series.
Last season, they traded for Jake Guentzel, a proven playoff performer, but Carolina stalled out in the second round and Guentzel walked as a free agent. This season, they made a blockbuster trade with Colorado that saw the Hurricanes ship leading scorer Martin Necas to the Avs for Mikko Rantanen … only to then trade Rantanen to Dallas before the deadline, after the star winger declined to sign a contract extension in Raleigh. Carolina acquired 21-year-old forward Logan Stankoven in the deal, a talented scorer but not one yet on the level of Rantanen or Guentzel.
So the Hurricanes are right back where they’ve been: a grinding, aggressive puck possession team with an offense and defense both in the top 10 and the best penalty kill in the league. They have some offensive pop from players such as Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis, but it’s saying something that Necas is still their third-leading scorer. They also have goaltenders in Pyotr Kochetkov and Frederik Andersen that led the Canes to finishing 23rd in team save percentage (.889).
Yet a bounce here, a break there and a key goal in a key moment, and no one would be surprised to see Brind’Amour’s team break through in the East. It just seems a little less possible after the Rantanen revolving door.
Is Dallas vs. Colorado peak postseason drama?
With due respect to the geographic rivalry series in the Eastern Conference, no series has more compelling storylines than the Stars vs. the Avalanche in a matchup of Central Division rivals.
Consider that the Stars were picked by many to win the Stanley Cup this season, while the Avalanche have aggressively retooled their team from the crease out after losing to Dallas in the second round last season, seeking another Cup win after raising it in 2022.
Consider that the Avalanche decided Rantanen was not in their long-term plans, traded him to Carolina and then watched as the Hurricanes traded him to Dallas, where he signed an eight-year, $96 million deal. Rantanen has forged a reputation as one of the NHL’s top postseason scorers. He’d like nothing more than to remind the Avalanche why that is.
Consider that the Stars are taking on one of the best teams in the NHL with two major injury concerns. Top defenseman Miro Heiskanen hasn’t played since Jan. 28 because of a knee injury. There has been speculation out of Dallas that he could sit out this series, but GM Jim Nill seemed to indicate recently that there was a chance he could return in the first round. Meanwhile, star winger Jason Robertson sustained a lower-body injury in the Stars’ regular-season finale. His status was unclear for the Avalanche series. According to Betalytics, Colorado’s chances to win the series increase by over two percentage points if Robertson can’t play;
Finally, consider that Colorado captain Gabriel Landeskog is in the midst of one of the NHL’s greatest comebacks in recent memory. His most recent game in the league was June 26, 2022, when he and the Avalanche won the Stanley Cup. He sat out the following season after right knee surgery. He underwent cartilage transplant surgery and sat out 2023-24 and most of this season. Landeskog had been skating with the Avalanche and then returned to competitive play with the AHL Colorado Eagles. This incredible comeback journey could see him return to NHL action in Game 1 against Dallas.
This matchup has enough storylines for 10 series. It’s also a battle that could easily produce this season’s eventual Stanley Cup winner.
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Tyler Seguin assists on goal 16 seconds into return from injury
Tyler Seguin sets up Mason Marchment’s goal in his first NHL action since December 1.
Besides Rantanen, who are the other familiar faces in new places who could affect the playoffs?
As mentioned, the Avalanche aggressively added to their group all season, including a total makeover of their goaltending that saw former Sharks goalie Mackenzie Blackwood take over the crease. They also added forwards Brock Nelson (Islanders) and Charlie Coyle (Bruins), as well as defensemen Ryan Lindgren (Rangers) and former Avalanche player Erik Johnson (Flyers) before the trade deadline.
In addition to trading Coyle and Marchand, the Bruins also sent veteran defenseman Brandon Carlo to the Maple Leafs.
Ottawa bolstered its team for now and in the future by acquiring center Dylan Cozens from Buffalo. Tampa Bay added forward Oliver Bjorkstrand in the trade with Seattle that also got them Gourde.
Which rookies could make an impact in the playoffs?
If the Montreal Canadiens are going to upset the Washington Capitals, two rookies are going to have to make a major impact. Defenseman Lane Hutson is the favorite to win the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year after 66 points in 82 games, leading all first-year players. Forward Ivan Demidov, a dynamic offensive star in the KHL, signed with Montreal late in the season and made an immediate impact. He’s one to watch.
Among the other rookies who’ll be counted on in the playoffs are Stankoven, who had 37 points in 77 games with Dallas and Carolina; forward Zack Bolduc (36 points) of the St. Louis Blues; forward Jackson Blake (34 points) of the Hurricanes; forward Mackie Samoskevich (31 points) of the Panthers; and center Mavrik Bourque (25 points) of the Stars.
Can Winnipeg break the Presidents’ Trophy curse?
The Jets finished with 116 points to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the NHL and with it the Presidents’ Trophy. Congratulations, and we’re sorry.
The Presidents’ Trophy curse is well-known hockey lore among players and fans. There have been 39 winners of the hardware since it was introduced in 1985-86. Only eight teams that finished first overall went on to win the Stanley Cup. For context, seven Presidents’ Trophy winners lost in the opening round. It has only gotten worse since the NHL moved to a wild-card format in 2013-14: No Presidents’ Trophy winner has gone on to play for the Stanley Cup, let alone win it, while two teams (Tampa Bay in 2019 and Boston in 2023) lost in the opening round.
The Jets are on a mission after two straight seasons of losing in the first round in five games. They talked down regular-season accomplishment all season, with a focus on the postseason. Winnipeg had the fourth-best offense in the NHL, powered by the league’s best power play. More importantly, they had the NHL’s best goaltender in Connor Hellebuyck, last year’s Vezina Trophy winner who finished atop the league in both traditional stats and analytics. Like the rest of his team, Hellebuyck wants to flip the script on his own underwhelming numbers from last postseason.
The Jets face a Blues team that made the playoffs after a torrid 12-game winning streak in March, as part of an 18-3-0 run. The Blues fired coach Drew Bannister after 22 games, when Jim Montgomery became available after Boston fired him. After the 4 Nations Face-Off, St. Louis finally found its stride under Montgomery: first in 5-on-5 offense and second in defense during the winning streak.
St. Louis won’t be an easy out for Winnipeg. As Blues goalie Jordan Binnington showed at 4 Nations for Canada, he can rise to meet the moment.
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Cole Perfetti goes five-hole to win shootout for Jets
Cole Perfetti seals the victory for the Jets with a sweet shot against the Blackhawks.
Is the fourth time the charm for the Los Angeles Kings?
The Kings had an outstanding regular season under new coach Jim Hiller, who guided L.A. to a .648 points percentage, the second highest in franchise history. They found a goalie in Darcy Kuemper, who had some of the best numbers of his career in back of the second-best defensive team in the NHL.
And what did all of this earn the Kings? A fourth straight first-round matchup against Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
The Kings lost in seven games in 2022, six games in 2023 and five games last season. Obviously, L.A. fans would like that trend to end. If the Kings finally get past the Oilers, their combination of defensive dominance and offensively opportunistic veterans such as Adrian Kempe (35 goals), Anze Kopitar (67 points) and Kevin Fiala (35 goals) could be a force in the West.
Will Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl finish the story?
The Edmonton Oilers came within one victory from hoisting the Stanley Cup last season, rallying from a 3-0 deficit to force a Game 7 before losing to the Panthers.
This season has had its challenges for Edmonton. Evander Kane sat out the regular season because of knee injury. McDavid and Draisaitl both sat out because of injuries, but Draisaitl was the league’s top goal scorer with 52 in 71 games. Steady defenseman Mattias Ekholm will sit out the Kings series because of an injury. The Oilers played inconsistent defense in front of goaltending that ranked 16th in team save percentage.
If the Oilers are going to get back to the Stanley Cup Final, they’ll need their stars to carry them, their supporting cast to step up and goalies Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard to play well enough not to cost Edmonton a series. A lot broke the Oilers’ way last season. The road’s even tougher in the West this postseason.
Which team is the X factor in the 2025 playoffs?
The Vegas Golden Knights‘ ceiling might be the Stanley Cup, which they won for the first and only time in 2023. But it has been difficult to get a handle on how good they can be given some of their lineup absences: Only five Vegas players played over 80 games this season. But the Knights made it work: They finished third in team defense, fifth in offense and first in the Pacific Division.
There are difference-makers all over the lineup. Jack Eichel had a career season, with 93 points in 77 games. Pavel Dorofeyev had a breakout with 35 goals, with Tomas Hertl — always a postseason standout — right behind him, with 32 goals. Mark Stone played 66 games but had 67 points in them. Vegas has as solid a defense corps as you’ll find in the West, in front of goalie Adin Hill, who overcame a slow start to have a solid season.
The Knights draw a Minnesota team in the first round that clinched a playoff spot in their last game of the season, and are riding some good vibes now that Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek are both healthy. There’s always a chance that Marc-Andre Fleury helps author an upset against his former team in the last playoff run of his career. But more likely, it’ll be Vegas moving on — it’s just a question of how long their run will last.
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Jack Eichel lights the lamp
Jack Eichel lights the lamp
So who wins the Cup?
There’s no juggernaut ready to slice through the playoffs to the Cup Final. A handful of teams have a rightful claim to the throne and none would be surprising should they ascend to it.
According to ESPN BET, the Avalanche are the favorites to win it all, followed by the Panthers, Hurricanes, Golden Knights, Oilers and Jets.
The Leafs have the longest Stanley Cup drought, having not won since 1967. The Oilers actually have the second longest, having last won the Cup in 1990.
There are 10 current NHL teams that have yet to win the Stanley Cup. Three of them are in this playoff bracket: Wild, Senators and Jets.
Will it be a team that has never hoisted the Cup before? Will it be a team that has been on the precipice of a championship like Carolina and Dallas? Will it be a recent winner, cycling back to another title? Your guess is as good as ours.
Enjoy the Stanley Cup playoffs, everyone — the best postseason in sports.
Sports
Stanley Cup playoffs mega-preview: Stanley Cup cases, X factors, bold predictions for all 16 teams
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
The 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs are here! Unlike in some recent years, the bracket was known a few days in advance, as the Montreal Canadiens clinched the final spot — and a first-round matchup against Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Division lined up for the Battle of Ontario (Toronto Maple Leafs–Ottawa Senators) and Battle of Florida (Tampa Bay Lightning–Florida Panthers).
In the West, the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg Jets open against the resurgent St. Louis Blues, while Mikko Rantanen and the Dallas Stars face his former team, the Colorado Avalanche. And for the fourth straight postseason, the Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers square off in Round 1.
We’ve got all the angles covered to get you ready for the playoffs as ESPN hockey reporters Ryan S. Clark and Kristen Shilton take a look at each of the 16 postseason teams, offering the reasons each team could win it all, along with the biggest X factor, players to watch and a bold prediction for every team.
Note: Profiles for the Atlantic and Metropolitan playoff brackets were written by Shilton, while Clark analyzed the Central and Pacific clubs. Also note that wild-card teams are listed according to the playoff bracket in which they’re playing (so the Canadiens are in the Metro, and the Minnesota Wild are in the Pacific).
Stats are collected from sites such as Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey.
Full schedule
Bracket, schedule
Contender flaws
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The Stanley Cup Playoffs begin April 20 on ESPN
Get hyped for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, beginning April 20 on ESPN.
Atlantic Division
Record: 51-26-4, 106 points
First-round opponent: Senators
Case for a Stanley Cup run: If not now … when? The Maple Leafs are arguably the deepest, most complete team they’ve been in the Core Four (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander) era. First-year coach Craig Berube’s north-south style took some getting used to, but the Leafs have thrived in it. Toronto is top 10 in league scoring without being top-heavy. The stars (especially Marner and Tavares) are pumping in goals, but the Leafs get solid contributions throughout the lineup.
Defensively, Toronto has buckled down, allowing fewer than three goals per game and their top-four rotation is stronger than ever. And the Leafs’ goaltending? Locked in, with Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll both pulling their weight as a tandem of No. 1s with a collective .916 save percentage.
X factor: The Leafs have serious postseason demons to overcome. How much does Toronto’s history of first-round failure hang over the team going into another playoffs? The Leafs have basically been through it all the past decade — they’ve earned series leads and blown them, come back from the brink (and still fallen short) and experienced every high and low in between.
The belief that Toronto can not only get through one round, but many rounds, has to start with the players. And for some reason, that swaggering confidence the Leafs have in the regular season dies out like a candle in the wind by playoffs. How Toronto manages its emotions and allows this season to be its own adventure — without influence from past failings — could determine just how many days or weeks this postseason lasts.
Player to watch: Marner. The Leafs’ top winger has had a sensational regular season, pacing his club with 26 goals and 99 points. Marner must translate that success to the postseason and in a timely fashion. Marner has 11 goals and 50 points in 58 postseason tilts to date, but what’s often been lacking are timely contributions, those big-time plays at critical moments. The Leafs have seen opportunity slip away when their best players like Marner (and Matthews) can’t produce. This is a contract year for Marner, too. An impactful playoff performance could add some serious dollars onto his next deal.
Bold prediction: The Leafs sweep their way to a first-round series win and don’t look back. Toronto bullies the competition en route to a Stanley Cup Final appearance.
Record: 47-26-8, 102 points
First-round opponent: Panthers
Case for a Stanley Cup run: It’s easy to cite Tampa Bay’s recent success as the reason it could add another banner to the rafters. But this Lightning team is built differently. Tampa Bay is not just relying on its elite goal scorers (ahem, Nikita Kucherov) to carry the day. The Lightning are well established defensively, and that’s been a driver of their success the second half of this season. Since Feb. 1, Tampa has allowed the sixth-fewest goals in the league (2.40), with an impressive top-10 penalty kill (80.3%).
Andrei Vasilevskiy has been terrific in the crease, collecting the second-most wins among league starters (37) with a .921 save percentage and 2.20 goals-against average. Oh, and Kucherov? He only leads the league in scoring with 37 goals and 121 points. With Jon Cooper — fresh off guiding Canada to victory at the 4 Nations Face-Off — managing this lineup, the sky’s the limit for Tampa Bay.
X factor: The Lightning have enviable scoring talent in Kucherov, Jake Guentzel (40 goals), Brayden Point (41 goals) and Brandon Hagel (35). But does Tampa have the depth to compete when offense is at a premium? In the past it’s been unsung heroes like Nick Paul who come through when the Lightning’s best skaters are neutralized.
This season, most of Tampa Bay’s output is coming from a handful of exceptional players. The Lightning’s ability to tap into the power of their bottom six will be critical. That doesn’t negate how strong Tampa Bay’s defense has been or the benefit in having Vasilevskiy back there guarding the cage. It’s just a reality in the postseason that star contributions dwindle and have to be supplemented from somewhere else.
Player to watch: Victor Hedman. The Lightning’s top blueliner took over his team’s captaincy when Steven Stamkos left in free agency. Keeping Tampa Bay even-keeled in the postseason will fall on him. Hedman plays more than 23 minutes per game in every situation and it often feels like where he goes, the Lightning follow. Setting that example again and ensuring Tampa Bay doesn’t lose track of its freshly ingrained defensive mindset will give the Lightning their best chance of a long spring.
Bold prediction: Tampa Bay’s scoring stars are silenced early in the first round. Every game is decided by a single goal and ultimately the Lightning fall in six to face a swift summer break.
Record: 47-31-4, 98 points
First-round opponent: Lightning
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Who wants to bet against the reigning Stanley Cup champions? Especially when it’s a Florida team that reached the final the year before finally earning the franchise’s first title.
The Panthers are seasoned winners. They know what it takes to navigate the physical and emotional toll of a long playoff run. That’s not easy. But Florida’s potential to repeat goes beyond what they’ve shown in the past. This season’s Panthers are stingy (giving up just 2.72 goals per game), striking (particularly with their 12th-ranked power play) and seemingly deep as ever (with five 20-plus goal scorers). Considering Florida will also have Aaron Ekblad back from a 20-game suspension and Matthew Tkachuk returning from injury by the postseason? Watch out.
X factor: Will fatigue become a factor for Florida after two straight short summers? The Panthers did weather some injury issues down the stretch of this season, but their record over the past month (at just 10-10-1) and downturn in scoring production (32nd with only 2.19 goals per game) suggests the Panthers could be feeling the effects of limited downtime. They wouldn’t be the first champions to go through it, either. What will play a role in Florida’s success — or failure — is how it manages the inevitable wear and tear of this season with any lingering weariness.
Player to watch: Seth Jones. The Panthers won’t have Ekblad back until Game 3 of their first-round series. That puts additional pressure on Jones — along with the Panthers’ entire back end — to keep stepping up in his absence. Jones has already taken on a larger role than Florida likely anticipated when trading for him because of Ekblad’s suspension; he paces the team in ice time at nearly 25 minutes per game. But Jones is short on postseason experience — he hasn’t skated in the playoffs since 2020 — and he will be counted upon to have a significant impact from the back end. Florida will find out fast if he’s up to the task.
Bold prediction: The Panthers rely on physicality and defensive effort to get past the first round, but without enough scoring, they’re swept out of the second round into an early offseason.
Record: 44-30-7, 95 points
First-round opponent: Maple Leafs
Case for a Stanley Cup run: The Senators have been underrated for too much of this season. It’s in the playoffs that they can prove why. Ottawa’s defense is vastly improved — allowing just 2.80 goals per game — and it gives up fewer than 30 shots per game. First-year starter Linus Ullmark has been sensational for the Senators in net (with a .911 SV% and 2.67 GAA) and deserves ample credit for where Ottawa is, but it’s the full team buy-in that’s made a true difference.
The Senators are stacked with scoring talents — headlined by Tim Stutzle and Brady Tkachuk — and deep on the back end, where a terrific Jake Sanderson is having his own unheralded campaign. The Senators have endured enough frustration in recent seasons to be slightly hardened, too. There’s a belief that this is their moment and the time has come to show it.
X factor: How will Ottawa leverage its special teams in the playoffs, especially in the first round? The Senators have a solid power play (23.5%) and decent penalty kill (77.9%). Will they make the most of those units? This is the first postseason experience for all of Ottawa’s most important skaters, and it would be natural to try to do too much to have an impact.
The Senators know (logically) to avoid that going in. Easier said than done. Even-strength scoring dries up quickly in the postseason. Ottawa’s key openings could be with the extra man — and its power play has been particularly good in recent weeks (compared to their first-round opponent’s penalty kill, which has not). The Senators must own the special teams battle as best they can.
Player to watch: Tkachuk. The captain has been sidelined since March 30 with an upper-body injury, but he is expected to be back at full strength for the postseason. Will that be the case? It’s tough enough stepping back in from an ailment at any time of year; rust is inevitable after sitting out 11 games. But the Senators need Tkachuk’s contributions out of the gate to match up with the star power Toronto will wield. Tkachuk led the Senators with 29 goals this season and he’s the spark plug on their power play. No doubt all eyes in Canada’s capital will be watching to see if Tkachuk’s injury will impact what he can do straight away.
Bold prediction: Ottawa gives its all in the first round, but an avalanche of rookie mistakes provew too costly to overcome. The Senators can’t score when it counts and are swept from the first round.
Metropolitan Division
Record: 51-21-9, 111 points
First-round opponent: Canadiens
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Washington was the first team this season to clinch a playoff spot. And the Capitals could easily be the last one standing, too. They’re dynamic offensively (averaging the second most goals in the league), play a tight defensive game (giving up fewer than three goals per night), have a lights-out goaltender in Logan Thompson (owner of a .910 SV% and 2.49 GAA) and have the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer Alex Ovechkin hanging out in his office. What more could the Capitals possibly need to push their way toward a championship?
Spencer Carbery has rightfully earned Jack Adams chatter for the way he’s built this Washington team into a true contender. There aren’t many flaws to pick at when you’ve shown the type of consistency this crew has. Washington’s skids have been few and far between, and it has rarely lost two in a row. That regular-season success should segue nicely into what’s next.
X factor: It’s true Washington has a reliable No. 1 in Thompson — but he may not be available to start the postseason while rehabbing an upper-body injury. The Capitals have leaned on Charlie Lindgren in Thompson’s stead and project to keep doing so until Thompson is healthy.
Will Lindgren be able to stand tall early in the first round? Lindgren (.896 SV%, 2.73 GAA) hasn’t produced the same numbers as Thompson (.910 SV%, 2.49 GAA). Suddenly, goaltending becomes a serious potential roadblock for Washington. If the Capitals want to see their season extended for weeks — and not days — they’ll have to support Lindgren even more than they would Thompson with a defense-first mindset. Because even with the likes of Ovechkin up front, it’s nearly impossible to outscore your own defensive woes come the playoffs.
Player to watch: Tom Wilson. There’s something about Wilson and the postseason. He’s always been the Capitals’ heavy, but there’s an extra pep in Wilson’s step when the playoffs roll around. He’s going to make the other team uncomfortable, getting under guys’ skin and generally causing the sort of chaos that can throw things off. Washington needs that energy. The Capitals have plenty of finesse elsewhere, and while Wilson can score with the best of them — he has 33 goals this season, after all — it’s the extra punch (sometimes literally) Wilson can provide that makes him a standout this time of year.
Bold prediction: Washington’s offense is slowed in the first round when Ovechkin fails to score a single goal. Its heated second-round series ends in frustration when Washington’s defense can’t hold up and it is sent packing.
Record: 47-29-5, 99 points
First-round opponent: Devils
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Carolina has its identity and sticks to it. The Hurricanes are a perennial contender because they’re elite at 5-on-5, consistently stifle their opponents (by allowing the fewest shots in the league), while simultaneously making the competition uncomfortable (by peppering in the second-most shots on goal this season). Carolina has improved its play off the rush and remains as stout as ever on defense. It has received strong goaltending from Frederik Andersen (.907 SV%, 2.29 GAA) and has the league’s best penalty kill.
It has been Carolina’s defensive details that set it apart, and those are never more valuable than in the playoffs. The Hurricanes have also leaned on a breakout offensive performance from Seth Jarvis. (He has a team-leading 32 goals.) Carolina has done the work to set itself up for success.
X factor: Is Carolina deep enough to actually go deep in the playoffs? The Hurricanes do an excellent job offensively of generating opportunities, but too often aren’t cashing in on them from enough players throughout the lineup. If Carolina can rely only on Jarvis and Sebastian Aho to consistently light the lamp then they become an easier team to pick off (especially considering their power play is 26th in the league, at 18.6%).
And what about the goaltending depth? Andersen has been good since coming back from injury, but his young partner Pyotr Kochetkov has struggled (.898 SV%, 2.59 GAA). Andersen is always at risk of getting hurt and Carolina would be in lesser hands with Kochetkov taking over the crease. How the Hurricanes respond to potential adversities — and who can fill in the gaps — is key.
Player to watch: Logan Stankoven. Carolina may not have Mikko Rantanen anymore, but it does have a player who came on board when Rantanen was traded to Dallas. Stankoven, a rookie, has been an impressive fit for the Hurricanes, with five goals and eight points in 17 games. And it feels like he’s hitting a stride at the right time. Stankoven can create chances for himself and teammates with an underrated playmaking ability and he’s an energy guy, too. That can go a long way in the close, tense games that Carolina projects to find itself in soon enough.
Bold prediction: Despite Carolina’s decided edge in the first round, it falters too many times to recover. The Hurricanes fail to advance for the first time since 2020 and for just the second time under coach Rod Brind’Amour.
Record: 42-33-7, 91 points
First-round opponent: Hurricanes
Case for a Stanley Cup run: New Jersey has the ingredients to be a surprise success story in the postseason. The Devils’ special teams are among the league’s best, with a third-ranked power play (28%) and second-ranked penalty kill (82.4%). New Jersey is tough to crack all around though, allowing the fifth-fewest goals this season (2.65) and sixth-fewest shots (26.3).
The Devils’ solid goalie tandem of Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen should leave them feeling confident that whoever is back there will be steering enough pucks aside. And if New Jersey can make life hard on the opponent and wear them down with a strong defensive effort, then it will take some of the sting out of not having top scorer Jack Hughes available due to injury.
X factor: All of that said, Hughes isn’t easily replaceable (as we’ve seen in New Jersey’s struggles since Hughes underwent surgery in March). The Devils are 30th in 5-on-5 scoring without Hughes, and replacing his contributions in the playoffs is critical to how far they can advance. Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt are averaging over a point per game following Hughes’ departure, and having Dougie Hamilton back for the playoffs should help generate more scoring opportunities from the back end.
The first round will pit New Jersey against a sturdy defensive club in Carolina. It’ll take all the firepower these Devils can muster to make up for Hughes’ absence and every single opportunity to use that vaunted power play can’t be taken for granted.
Player to watch: Hischier. It’s easy for Hischier to fly under the radar when Hughes is around. Now, consider Hischier in the spotlight. His ability as a two-way center will carry the Devils’ top-heavy attack, but Hischier will also have a target on his back. Ultimately, slowing him down will make New Jersey that much more one-dimensional. How Hischier handles the hurricane ahead will decide whether the Devils sink or swim.
Bold prediction: New Jersey plays fast and loose and it pays off against a stiff Carolina team in the first round. The Devils glide through the second round as one of the playoffs’ best offensive teams and wind up another Cinderella story (this time, playoff edition).
Record: 40-31-11, 91 points
First-round opponent: Capitals
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Montreal found its mojo at the right moment. Who would have thought as the Canadiens endured a five-game slide through the end of March that they’d follow it up with six straight wins to put a playoff berth back on the table?
The postseason is all about momentum and confidence. The Canadiens may have needed a few extra games to ultimately secure their spot but what does Montreal have to lose, really? While other clubs are saddled with pressure to win now, the Canadiens can truly be happy just having their seat at the party. And that’s a good thing.
Montreal stepped up in the second half of this season, averaging over three goals per game since late February while allowing fewer than three across the line. Nick Suzuki has averaged over a point per game, and Cole Caufield has collected an impressive 37 goals. Rookie defenseman Lane Hutson is having a Calder Trophy-worthy season, and the Canadiens have continuously shown they have sound depth. Montreal has made it this far. There’s reason to believe it can keep the good times rolling.
X factor: The Canadiens will be taking on a high-flying Washington team out of the gate. Can Montreal’s goaltending keep things from getting out of hand? Sam Montembeault was great during that five-game stretch to put the Canadiens in playoff position, and he, like the rest of the team, was better in the season’s second half. Now, Montreal just needs Montembeault to hold the Capitals’ elite offense at bay long enough for the Canadiens’ own snipers to get on the board. Montembeault has carried a heavy load already for Montreal this year (with 60 starts) and his stats are good (.901 SV% and 2.83 GAA). The Canadiens will need greatness from their goaltenders if they expect to move on.
Player to watch: Ivan Demidov. Name the last player who arrived in Montreal to Demidov-level fanfare? (We’ll wait). Turns out, though, the hype was real. Demidov stepped into his first NHL game last week and was on the scoresheet with a goal and an assist. Montreal may have lost that night to Chicago, but Demidov was an undeniable boost for the group as they searched for that eventual clinching victory. And considering how unfazed Demidov appears at the NHL level, it’ll be fascinating to see what he can provide for Montreal in the postseason.
Bold prediction: Montreal takes Game 1 to win their first playoff game in four years and put some doubt into the Capitals. The Canadiens hold off Ovechkin the entire way in a six-game series they eventually lose.
Central Division
Record: 56-2-4, 116 points
First-round opponent: Blues
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Few teams are as complete as the Jets have been this season, one in which they won the Presidents’ Trophy for the league’s best record. They took a step forward in their evolution in the first season under Scott Arniel, who was an associate coach with the Jets for the past two campaigns.
They get consistent offensive contributions from their forward lines, while also getting scoring from defensemen. Their defensive structure is among the best in the league at limiting scoring chances, while they have what might be a future Hall of Famer in Connor Hellebuyck in net.
X factor: Can their regular-season continuity translate to playoff success? This is, once again, the biggest question facing the Jets heading into the postseason. They won 52 games last season, faced the Avalanche in the first round — and were eliminated in five games for a second consecutive postseason.
Fast forward to this year. They’ve won more than 50 games for a second straight season, while having personnel who look as if they can be trusted in every situation. Does it lead to them getting out of the first round? Or will it be a third straight early exit?
Player to watch: Hellebuyck. He’s in line to win a second consecutive Vezina Trophy, which would be his third overall. That would place Hellebuyck among Hall of Famers Martin Brodeur, Dominik Hasek and Patrick Roy. But any time there’s a discussion about Hellebuyck’s status among all-time greats, it includes his relative lack of success in the postseason. That came up last season, when he had a personal-low .870 save percentage in the Jets’ five-game series loss. On the whole, he’s 18-27 with a 2.85 goals-against average and a .910 save percentage in his postseason career. Is this the year he turns it around?
Bold prediction: Gabriel Vilardi, who has only two goals in 12 career playoff games, will lead the Jets in goals this postseason.
Record: 50-26-6, 106 points
First-round opponent: Avalanche
Case for a Stanley Cup run: The Stars are certainly in a championship window, having advanced to three Western Conference finals in the past five years. But there’s more to it than that. The core of those teams remains in place. They’ve found ways to add to that core, and newcomers assimilate quickly.
Despite already having one of the most talented teams in the NHL, the Stars traded for one of the game’s best players in Mikko Rantanen, who has won a Stanley Cup. Adding Rantanen only heightens the expectations this could be the year for the Stars.
X factor: Can they be stopped in a Game 7? You may have heard that Stars coach Peter DeBoer is quite adept at Game 7s. His teams are 8-0, which is not only the best all-time record for Game 7s in NHL history, but it’s the best mark of any coach in North American men’s pro sports history.
While he’s been with the Stars for only two seasons, each postseason has seen the Stars tap into what has made DeBoer so crucial in those winner-take-all games. And with a first-round date against the Avalanche? It’s possible DeBoer’s Game 7 tactics could come into play again.
Player to watch: Mikko Rantanen. There’s the theatrical aspect — watching a player who never thought he was going to leave the franchise that drafted him play a role in eliminating them months after being traded. But what’s greater than the drama is the fact that the Stars altered their entire team-building philosophy by dealing draft picks and a rookie roster player to get him, because they believe someone who has 101 points in 81 career playoff games can lead to them winning the second title in franchise history.
Bold prediction: Rantanen will either score or set up two of the game-winning goals in the first round against the Avalanche.
Record: 49-29-4, 102 points
First-round opponent: Stars
Case for a Stanley Cup run: What’s essentially doomed the Avs since they won the Stanley Cup back in 2022 is a lack of consistent secondary and tertiary scoring. It’s something they’ve tried to fix on multiple occasions, only to end up course correcting. But, the trades they’ve made this season have given them not only their strongest roster since they won the Cup, but a group that has the potential to be just as good as that title-winning team. That group will be put to the test quickly in the first round against the Stars.
X factor: Their supporting cast. Relying on their role players was crucial to why they averaged more than four goals per game en route to knocking out the Jets in five games in the opening round last spring. But that changed against the Stars in Round 2. A lack of consistent secondary scoring, among other items, resulted in the Avs notching six total goals in the four games they lost to the Stars in the second round.
Player to watch: Gabriel Landeskog. The Avalanche captain played his first professional game in nearly three years for the Avs’ AHL affiliate this past weekend. After logging 15 minutes in his first game, he scored a goal and had an assist in his second game, while his surgically repaired knee didn’t give him any issues. It sets the stage for Landeskog returning this postseason, and not only providing the Avs with a two-way net front presence who plays a responsible game, but someone who provides a calming influence in difficult situations.
Bold prediction: Landeskog will score three goals in the first round against the Stars.
Record: 44-30-8, 96 points
First-round opponent: Jets
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Since they hired Jim Montgomery in November, the Blues have talked about the adjustments they could make, and it led to an openness that led to contributions throughout their lineup. That became evident during a 12-game win streak across March and April that saw them catapult from wild-card hopeful to being in control of the wild-card race.
Oh, and an in-season coaching change followed by a strong run to the playoffs and then a Stanley Cup for St. Louis? Yeah, we’ve seen that before.
X factor: How far will their defensive structure take them? One of the biggest challenges facing the Blues before they hired Montgomery was the need for defensive consistency. They hired assistant Mike Weber to focus on defense, and added two-way forwards to help address the problem.
Following Montgomery’s arrival, the Blues have steadily improved to the point where they’re among the best in the NHL in allowing high-danger chances per 60 minutes, while being in the top 13 in fewest shots allowed per 60 and scoring chances per 60.
Player to watch: Jordan Binnington. For months ahead of the 4 Nations Face-Off, much was made about Canada’s relative weakness in goal. The team turned to Binnington, who was instrumental in helping the nation win February’s best-on-best tournament. His exploits since have translated into success for the Blues. Given the changes under Montgomery coupled with what Binnington has done, could it lead to the Blues going on a run this postseason?
Bold prediction: Despite the Jets having the NHL’s top power play, the Blues will limit them to only two goals with the extra-skater advantage.
Pacific Division
Record: 50-22-10, 110 points
First-round opponent: Wild
Case for a Stanley Cup run: By Vegas standards, this team has been quiet — but it has also been rather productive.
Jack Eichel is no longer just an offensive threat. He’s developed into a complete, two-way forward who can be used in any situation. They’ve empowered Pavel Dorofeyev into becoming a 30-goal scorer. Goaltender Adin Hill went from being in a tandem to making more than 50 starts for the first time in his career. Those individual exploits are part of a collective that once again has the Golden Knights in a position to challenge for a second Stanley Cup in three years.
X factor: Their strength in numbers. Winning that title in 2023 was largely made possible by the Golden Knights’ depth. That’s what made last offseason so jarring, because quite a bit of that depth left in free agency. The response? Eleven players finished 2024-25 with 10 or more goals. That group includes Dorofeyev but also Brett Howden, who went from 39 career goals in 351 career games entering this season to 23 goals in 2024-25.
Player to watch: Tomas Hertl. Hertl had a difficult time after coming over via trade at the tail end of last season, as he was coming back from injury. That extended into the postseason, in which he finished with one point in seven games. But in his first full season with the club, Hertl has looked the part of a legitimate top-six forward, reaching the 30-goal mark for the third time in his career. Getting that version of Hertl means the Golden Knights could also get “Playoff Hertl,” who scored 16 goals and had 24 points in 29 games during his final two postseason campaigns with the San Jose Sharks.
Bold prediction: Not only will Dorofeyev lead the Golden Knights in goals after the first round, but he will lead the Western Conference in goals.
Record: 48-24-9, 105 points
First-round opponent: Oilers
Case for a Stanley Cup run: The Kings have gone through a few iterations over the last four years once their rebuild was complete. They’ve made big trades, spent quite a bit of money in free agency, shuffled through goaltenders, and fired and hired coaches only for it to all end in the same place the past three seasons: getting knocked out by the Oilers in the first round.
This season, they’ve attained a level of consistency — both with their structure under Jim Hiller and in having roster continuity — that could make this spring end differently. And it helps that the goalie on whom they finally landed has shown up in a big way — even earning some Vezina consideration.
X factor: Can their identity be the difference? A former assistant coach who went from interim coach to head coach this season, Jim Hiller has developed the Kings into one of the more consistent teams in the NHL. Their underlying offensive metrics have them in the top 10 or just outside the top 10 in most shots per 60 minutes, goals per 60, scoring chances per 60 and high-danger chances per 60.
Defensively, they’re in the top three in fewest opportunities allowed in those same categories, while also being top three in team save percentage.
Player to watch: Darcy Kuemper. All the changes the Kings have made in net have come with the intention of getting to the second round. So far, none of those adjustments have worked, which led them to get Kuemper. In only 34 career playoff games, he’s done quite a bit: helping the Arizona Coyotes win a round in the Edmonton bubble in 2020 and backstopping the Avs to a Stanley Cup in 2022. Does he add getting the Kings (finally) past the first round and the Oilers to his list of achievements?
Bold prediction: Warren Foegele, who scored three playoff goals for the Oilers last season, will have a hat trick in the first round against his old team.
Record: 48-29-5, 101 points
First-round opponent: Kings
Case for a Stanley Cup run: The Oilers were a game away from winning the Stanley Cup last year after falling into a three-game series hole against the Panthers. The entirety of their run reinforced the notion that they were more than just Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. That they had the support cast who could be counted upon in critical sequences, while coach Kris Knoblauch and his staff seemingly had an adjustment for every situation.
Even though the Oilers enter the playoffs facing a long list of injuries, they’re in a championship window — and have shown they can figure it out when needed.
X factor: Can they fix the disconnect with their defense and goaltending? Everything about the Oilers’ underlying metrics suggests they’re one of the stronger defensive teams in the NHL this season. They’re in the top 10 in fewest scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes and the fewest high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60. They’re also 11th in shots allowed per 60.
And yet, they are in the bottom 10 in team save percentage. How is it that the Oilers have been consistent with their structure but inconsistent in net? Answering that question could play a role in an early exit versus a protracted one.
Player to watch: Stuart Skinner. Not that a team’s playoff fate hinges entirely on the actions of one player, but there’s attention on Skinner for a reason (in addition to everything in the previous section). The benching during last year’s playoffs seemed to be a wake-up call; thereafter, he was a consistent presence that played a significant role in the Oilers’ Cup Final run.
But, this season has arguably been his most difficult since becoming the Oilers’ No. 1. His .894 save percentage is his lowest in that time, while Skinner’s minus-10.34 goals saved above expected (per Natural Stat Trick) is the worst of any goalie who could potentially start for a playoff team.
Bold prediction: Should the Oilers get past the Kings in the first round, they’ll return to the Stanley Cup Final.
Record: 45-30-7, 97 points
First-round opponent: Golden Knights
Case for a Stanley Cup run: Just look at what they’ve been through this season. Kirill Kaprizov was having the best season of his career before he sustained a long-term injury, limiting him to 41 games. The Wild also had to navigate injuries to Joel Eriksson Ek, Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin. They were in the bottom 10 of goals per game, shots per 60 minutes, scoring chances per 60 and high-danger chances per 60.
If they made it this far in a season in which they’ve played many tight games, shouldn’t playing those games now provide a sense of normalcy — especially with all of those players back in the lineup?
X factor: Comfort in one-goal games. Yes, playoff games are different because one mistake can make the difference between winning a game or losing a series. But as noted above, the Wild know that concept all too well this season. They’ve played in 28 one-goal games and have won 18 of them. There was even one stretch in which they won four consecutive one-goal games.
And for a team that was the worst in goals per game among Western Conference playoff teams? Those one-goal games could be crucial toward their aspirations.
Player to watch: Zeev Buium. Although the Wild have a number of players who could be in this space, what makes Buium the pick here is the intrigue. From the moment they drafted him last summer, it created an expectation that he and Brock Faber could usher the Wild’s blue line into a new era. But above all, it gave the Wild another young, puck-moving defenseman who could play heavy minutes — and important minutes — when the time came. Buium has already filled that role with the University of Denver and the two-time gold-medal winning U.S. team at the World Juniors. He could be the next young blueliner who is asked to do the same in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Bold prediction: Marc-Andre Fleury will get at least one win against the Golden Knights, and if so, it will come at T-Mobile Arena.
As spring practices continue to wind down with an assortment of fan fests and spring showcases, some programs are sticking with tradition and hosting spring games.
Among those hosting games this weekend are Michigan, which features ballyhooed quarterback recruit Bryce Underwood, and Colorado, where coach Deion Sanders remains but his biggest stars from last season, quarterback Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter, will be stepping onto a much bigger stage at next week’s NFL draft.
Here’s a look at the power-conference programs hosting spring games this weekend, including positions of intrigue and players to watch for each team.
All times Eastern.
Game time: Friday, 7:30 p.m.
2024 record: 9-4
Spring storyline: Shane Beamer became only the second coach at South Carolina in the past 40 years to win nine regular-season games last season. (Steve Spurrier was the other.) The Gamecocks played their best football down the stretch and were a couple of plays and questionable calls away from making the College Football Playoff. They return two of the best young players in the country in redshirt sophomore quarterback LaNorris Sellers and sophomore edge rusher Dylan Stewart, but the key to the season will be how well the other players around those two stars develop.
Position of intrigue: Even with All-America defensive end Kyle Kennard headed to the NFL, South Carolina’s defensive front seven should again be stout. The Gamecocks finished in the top 20 nationally in scoring defense, yards per play and rushing defense. Stewart’s ability to get to the passer will be a major part of the 2025 defense, but Bryan Thomas Jr. also had 4.5 sacks last season. Transfers Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy at tackle (Texas A&M), Jaylen Brown at end (Missouri) and Justin Okoronkwo (Alabama) and Shawn Murphy (Florida State) at linebacker are on their way.
Player to watch: Being able to run the ball last season made a huge difference for South Carolina, and Sellers was a big part of that running game. But with Rocket Sanders gone, the Gamecocks needed a go-to running back, which is where Utah State transfer Rahsul Faison fits in. The 5-foot-11, 200-pound Faison rushed for 1,109 yards and averaged 5.6 yards per carry last season. — Chris Low
Game time: Saturday, noon
2024 record: 9-4
Spring storyline: Is Duke ready to push into the ACC’s upper echelon? Here’s a fun fact: The only teams with more conference wins in the past three years than Duke (14) are Clemson and Louisville. After last season’s surprising 9-4 finish, Duke spent big to land transfer Darian Mensah at QB, and expectations are incredibly high in Durham for the first time in — well, it’s been a while.
Position of intrigue: Mensah was the big offseason splash, but there remains a question as to who he’ll be throwing the ball to. The Blue Devils’ top two receivers and their leading pass catcher at tight end from 2024 are all gone. In their wake, Duke will rely on third-year option Que’Sean Brown, who emerged late in the season, and a pair of transfers in Andrel Anthony (from Oklahoma) and Cooper Barkate (from Princeton).
Player to watch: Jaquez Moore was supposed to be a centerpiece to Duke’s offense in 2024, but an early injury upended his season, and he finished with just 32 carries. He’s healthy again, and if he can get back into the form he showed as an all-around playmaker in 2022 and 2023, the Blue Devils should have a nicely balanced attack. — David Hale
Game time: Saturday, noon
2024 record: 4-8
Spring storyline: Willie Fritz begins his second season at Houston with two new coordinators: His first hire on offense, Kevin Barbay, was fired after the Cougars ranked last in the FBS in scoring offense and replaced by Fritz’s former Tulane OC, Slade Nagle. Defensive coordinator Shiel Wood departed for a big raise at Texas Tech and was replaced by Austin Armstrong, formerly Florida’s DC.
Position of intrigue: Offensive line. The Cougars’ struggles on offense last season started up front, and Fritz, who had arrived in December after Dana Holgorsen was fired, had to patch plenty of holes. This year, the Cougars landed five offensive linemen in the portal to help bolster their protection.
Player to watch: Former Texas A&M starter Conner Weigman, a five-star recruit when he signed with the Aggies, was a high school star in the Houston area and will get a fresh start after a coaching and scheme change in Aggieland. — Dave Wilson
Game time: Saturday, noon
2024 record: 8-5
Spring storyline: New offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey arrives with a mandate to overhaul a passing game that finished above only the three service academies in 2024 in terms of passing yards per game. His development of incoming national No. 1 recruit Bryce Underwood at quarterback will be closely watched, but Lindsey must take a global approach to getting more production from an offense that is also losing its top two running backs.
Position of intrigue: Defensive tackle. No FBS team is losing a better tandem of interior defensive linemen, as Michigan must replace Mason Graham, a projected top-five NFL draft pick, and Kenneth Grant, a possible late first-round pick. Rayshaun Benny‘s return is significant, and Michigan must build depth around him with transfers Damon Payne (Alabama), Tre Williams (Clemson) and others.
Player to watch: Running back Justice Haynes. Even with a talent like Underwood at quarterback, Michigan will always lean on its run game, which loses Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards to the NFL. Haynes, a transfer from Alabama, has impressed his new coaches and teammates with his leadership and conditioning. Now he tries to become a featured back after averaging 5.9 yards per carry in limited work for the Crimson Tide. — Adam Rittenberg
Game time: Saturday, 1 p.m.
2024 record: 7-6
Spring storyline: After the Razorbacks lost six games or more for the third straight season in 2024, it seems like another important year for embattled coach Sam Pittman. It won’t be easy against one of the most difficult schedules in the FBS — road games at Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU and Texas and home contests against Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Auburn and Missouri. There was plenty of turnover on the roster, with 25 scholarship players leaving, including several key contributors. The Hogs’ focus this spring is finding their 22 best players and building depth behind them.
Position of intrigue: Pittman is an old-school offensive line coach at heart, and he knows Arkansas is going to have do a better job protecting quarterback Taylen Green, who was sacked 32 times in 2024. The Hogs gave up 36 overall, which ranked 114th in the FBS. The Razorbacks brought in five FBS transfers and another lineman from junior college. Tackles JacQawn McRoy (Oregon) and Corey Robinson II (Georgia Tech) might be the biggest additions. McRoy is nicknamed “Shaq” because of his towering 6-foot-8, 375-pound frame. Fernando Carmona, who moved from left tackle to guard, told reporters this week that the unit will be better than last year. “And I know that for a fact,” he said. “Just the way the group is, the way we’ve meshed.”
Player to watch: The Razorbacks need help at wide receiver after Andrew Armstrong departed for the NFL and Isaiah Sategna transferred to Oklahoma. Arkansas added four transfer receivers, and former UAB standout Kam Shanks led the FBS with 329 punt return yards and two punt return touchdowns in 2024. He also added a team-high 62 receptions for 656 yards and six scores. The Hogs will also get their first looks at receivers Courtney Crutchfield (Missouri), Raylen Sharpe (Fresno State) and O’Mega Blake (Charlotte). — Mark Schlabach
Game time: Saturday, 1 p.m.
2024 record: 2-10
Spring storyline: The Bulldogs went 2-10 and didn’t win an SEC contest in coach Jeff Lebby’s first season, so there’s plenty of work to do in Starkville, Mississippi, this spring. The Bulldogs have to figure out a way to improve their porous defense, which ranked 118th in scoring (34.1 points), 130th against the run (216.9 yards), 105th in passing defense (239.5 yards) and 126th in total defense (456.4). The offense also took some heavy portal losses, including quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. (LSU) and receivers Kevin Coleman Jr. (Missouri) and Mario Craver (Texas A&M).
Position of intrigue: The Bulldogs’ problems on defense started up front, and that’s the reason Lebby and his staff added seven defensive linemen in the portal. State’s defense generated only 10 sacks in 2024, second fewest in the FBS. Red Hibbler had 6½ sacks at NC State in 2023, then redshirted after four games last season. Will Whitson had 8½ tackles for loss and five sacks in two seasons at Coastal Carolina, and Malick Sylla had four sacks in three seasons at Texas A&M. Adding former FBS head coaches Mike MacIntyre and Paul Rhoads as senior defensive analysts can’t hurt.
Player to watch: Quarterback Blake Shapen returned to Mississippi State after missing the final eight games with a shoulder injury. In four starts in 2024, he threw for 974 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception. After Van Buren transferred to LSU, the Bulldogs signed former Florida State backup Luke Kromenhoek, who started two games in 2024. — Schlabach
Game time: Saturday, 2 p.m.
2024 record: 3-9
Spring storyline: Coach Mike Gundy responded to the worst finish of his tenure (and a contract-related standoff with the university) by hiring an entirely new staff of assistants and he’ll enter 2025 with an equally unfamiliar roster. TCU transfer Hauss Hejny is the favorite to emerge from a crowded quarterback room, and Oklahoma State must replace the production of Ollie Gordon, De’Zhaun Stribling and a handful of key defenders if the Cowboys want to execute a quick turnaround in 2025.
Position of intrigue: Offensive line. Oklahoma State is replacing its top six snap-getters from an offensive line that allowed 13 sacks last fall, 10th fewest nationally. In 2025, the Cowboys’ blocking unit projects to be transfer-heavy following the portal arrivals of Tyler Brumfield (Snow Junior College), Louie Canepa (New Mexico State), Kasen Carpenter (Tulsa), Lavaka Taukeiaho (Weber State) and the recent transfer commitment of Appalachian State offensive tackle Markell Samuel. Alongside them, redshirt junior Austin Kawecki is the only returner who played more than 100 snaps last fall.
Player to watch: Defensive line transfer Kyran Duhon was a second-team All-CUSA selection after he totaled 43 tackles and seven sacks in his freshman season at UTEP. His ability to get into the backfield will be critical for a defense that lost a series of impact defenders this season, including Collin Oliver and Nick Martin. — Eli Lederman
Game time: Saturday, 3 p.m., SECN+
2024 record: 8-5
Spring storyline: Last impressions always seem to count for more in college football, and Texas A&M in its first season under Mike Elko lost four of its last five games a year ago. It was a disappointing close to the season after the Aggies won seven straight heading into November and were seemingly in position to make a playoff run. Look for Elko to take on a heavier role on defense. He wasn’t pleased with the way the Aggies played down the stretch a year ago and brought in several newcomers on the defensive line, which is losing three of its top players to the NFL.
Position of intrigue: The Aggies are set to return all five starters in their offensive line, a unit that could use a boost from the running backs staying healthy this season. Despite knee injuries to both Rueben Owens and Le’Veon Moss last season, Texas A&M still finished second in the SEC in rushing with an average of 195.5 yards per game. Owens didn’t play until the last two games of the season after being injured in preseason camp, and Moss missed the last month of the season. Amari Daniels also returns at running back, meaning the Aggies’ running game could flourish in 2025.
Player to watch: This will be Marcel Reed‘s third year on campus, and the redshirt sophomore is Texas A&M’s future at quarterback. He had his ups and downs a year ago after shuffling between backup and starter, but played big on some big stages. Reed has said he wants to be more of a leader on this team, which starts in the spring. — Low
Game time: Saturday, 3 p.m.
2024 record: 8-5
Spring storyline: The Red Raiders were the talk of the college football personnel world this offseason, going big in the portal, spending more than $10 million to sign 17 new players, including seven on the offensive and defensive lines. But the expectation that go along with that, of course, is that Joey McGuire, 23-16 in his three seasons in Lubbock, wins the Big 12 and makes a run at the College Football Playoff.
Position of intrigue: Shiel Wood arrives as the new defensive coordinator after the Red Raiders finished 126th in total defense in 2024. The secondary was particularly troubling, giving up 308.1 passing yards per game, 132nd nationally. Five members of that transfer haul are defensive backs.
Player to watch: Romello Height is an interesting prospect. The 6-3, 240-pound edge rusher spent two seasons at Auburn out of high school, transferred to USC, then Georgia Tech and now Texas Tech. In 36 career games, he has 73 tackles (15.5 for loss) and 6.5 sacks. — Wilson
Game time: Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+
2024 record: 5-7
Spring storyline: Utah is turning to first-year offensive coordinator Jason Beck and a cast of newcomers to revamp an offense that finished 115th nationally in yards per game last season. Beck brought transfer quarterback Devon Dampier with him from New Mexico, and the Utes will hope that eight new additions across their running back and wide receiver rooms can lift Utah back to Big 12 contention following the program’s first losing season since 2013.
Position of intrigue: Cornerback. After leading the Utes to the conference’s fifth-ranked pass defense in 2024, the cornerback unit projects to be a strength again in the fall despite the departure of former all-conference defender Zemaiah Vaughn. Upperclassmen Smith Snowden and Elijah Davis are back in 2025, and the Utes have reinforced at the position with the portal additions of Donovan Saunders (Texas A&M), Blake Cotton (UC Davis) and Rock Caldwell (Garden City Community College).
Player to watch: Transfer running back Wayshawn Parker carried 137 times for 735 yards as Washington State’s second-leading rusher in his freshman season last fall. He’s primed to take on an even bigger workload with Utah in 2025 stepping in to replace 1,000-yard rusher Micah Bernard. — Lederman
Game time: Saturday, 4:30 p.m., ESPN2/ESPN+
2024 record: 9-4
Spring storyline: As Colorado prepares to retire the numbers of Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter this weekend, the question remains: Can the Buffaloes remain Big 12 contenders without them? Colorado found an experienced replacement for Sanders in Liberty quarterback transfer Kaidon Salter, though the 29-game starter is expected to face competition from five-star freshman Julian Lewis. Defensive backs DJ McKinney, Carter Stoutmire, Preston Hodge and Colton Hood return to a secondary that finished 40th in passing yards per game last season.
Position of intrigue: Wide receiver. Between the departures of Hunter and fellow pass catchers LaJohntay Wester, Will Sheppard and Jimmy Horn, Colorado entered the spring down 255 receptions, 3,251 receiving yards and 32 touchdowns of production from a year ago. Drelon Miller and Omarion Miller remain the program’s only returning receivers who hit double-digit receptions in 2024. Tulsa transfer Joseph Williams — the reigning AAC Freshman of the Year — should be in position to produce, and spring portal transfer commit Sincere Brown (Campbell) presents another intriguing option for the fall.
Player to watch: Alabama defensive tackle transfer Jeheim Oatis started 13 games and recorded 52 tackles, five pass breakups and 1.5 sacks in two-plus seasons with the Crimson Tide. He could emerge as a key piece at the heart of a new-look interior defensive line unit at Colorado this fall. — Lederman
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