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The partisan standoff over the debt limit, which hardened over the weekend when 43 Senate Republicans said they would not support a clean debt-limit increase, sets the stage for severe turbulence in the financial markets, experts warn. 

The yield on Treasury bonds maturing next month spiked last week, signaling that investors are already preparing for the possibility that President Biden and Republican leaders in Congress won’t reach a deal before the Treasury Department runs out of money next month.  

Biden will meet with the top four congressional leaders at the White House Tuesday to discuss how to avoid a default, but lawmakers expect little progress from the meeting. It’s the first face-to-face meeting between Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy since Feb. 1. 

There’s growing pessimism in Washington and the financial markets that political leaders will negotiate a long-term deal by early June, the deadline set by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.  

If an agreement doesn’t come together in the next month, congressional leaders will have to agree to a short-term extension of the debt limit to give themselves more time to negotiate.  More debt ceiling coverage from The Hill: Pressure grows on Biden to bend in debt ceiling talks Debt limit battle: How we got here

Without a short-term agreement, the US would go past the so-called “X-date” and face major turmoil in the markets.  

“I genuinely believe there’s a better-than-50-percent chance that there will be default, it will occur over a weekend and when the chaos it creates becomes obvious to all the players, they’ll have to reach some sort of accommodation,” said former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), who previously served as Senate Budget Committee chairman and an advisor to Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell’s (Ky.) leadership team. 

“The potential is pretty dire,” he warned. “Right now, you don’t have the leadership to solve the problem, that’s the bottom line.” 

Gregg said McCarthy faces a challenge to his speakership if he brings a debt-limit bill to the House floor without major fiscal reforms, but the cuts that he’s proposing don’t have a chance of passing the Senate. 

McConnell’s support for a letter signed by 43 Senate Republicans declaring they will not support “any bill that raises the debt ceiling without substantive spending and budget reforms” has failed to move Democrats away from insisting on a clean debt-ceiling increase.  

“I don’t know what Democrats have to negotiate,” said a senior Senate Democratic aide, who pointed out that Republicans agreed to raise the debt limit three times under former President Trump without drama. “We’re not the ones being inconsistent.” 

“At the end of the day, a lot of their behavior is playacting,” the aide said, predicting a spike in stock and bond market volatility will pressure Republicans into backing off their demands. “They have investments, too.” 

The aide, pointing to the downgrade of the nation’s credit rating in the 2011 debt-limit standoff, said that this year’s battle in Washington over the debt ceiling would also shake the financial markets.

“We have in the past. I don’t know why this would be different,” the aide said.  

Financial markets are already starting to show signs of stress related to the impasse over the debt ceiling. 

One-month Treasury bills maturing around a projected date in early June, when the government could run out of money, saw their yields spike to 5.76 percent last week. 

Yields have climbed far above recent averages closer to 4.5 percent and significantly higher than the recent low of 3.3 percent in April. 

“The Treasury bills curve appears to imply risk of disruption in June, July, and October,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note last week to investors. 

Treasury bills maturing in early June were trading at more than a 50-basis point discount compared to May and July at the end of last week. 

“Investors are paying a healthy premium to own bills that mature in May while demanding hefty compensation to hold T-bills that are maturing in the first half of June,” analysts for Wells Fargo wrote in a note to investors last week. 

Wall Street insurance policies, which are known as credit default swaps, against one-year Treasuries hit a record-high spread of 1.77 percent late last week in a spike that was notable both for its timing and its size. 

“There is likely genuine fear that a divided government and increased political polarization could make finding a solution less likely. Meanwhile, the dual threats of rising deficits (with larger federal payments, some indexed to inflation) and higher Treasury debt service costs also increase the chance of an accident, contributing to the higher perceived riskiness of owning US debt,” Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Zeng wrote in a May 5 note. 

Uncertainty in the Treasury market, which is already dealing with one of the fastest quantitative tightening cycles in decades, could spell more trouble for the U.S. banking sector. 

Sen. John Cornyn (Texas), an advisor to the Senate Republican leadership team, said local and regional banks in his state worried about losing deposits. 
“This is a very dangerous situation. There’s been a big shift in deposits to places people perceive as safer,” he said. “All of them are nervous, our community bankers, our regional bankers. We need to try to calm this down.”  

Cornyn said the possibility of a national default isn’t helping to calm the jittery banking sector. 

“I think it’s creating unnecessary anxiety,” he said.  

One senior Senate Republican aide warned that a drop in demand for Treasury securities could trigger a broader market selloff.  

Treasury security auctions will likely become increasingly sensitive to the Treasury Department’s looming X-date, analysts say.  

“Yields are elevated beginning with the June 6 maturity, which the Treasury in January suggested was the soonest the Treasury could exhaust resources under the debt limit. The yield is highest around mid- to-late-July maturities, when we think the Treasury will have exhausted resources under the debt limit if it has not in June,” analysts for Goldman Sachs wrote. 

Auctions scheduled for this Thursday for four-week and eight-week bills due to mature within this time frame could see some additional stress, as could auctions on May 25, June 8 and June 15. 

The Bipartisan Policy Center argued in an analysis published Tuesday that “managing Treasury security auctions and meeting all obligations will become increasingly challenging as reserves dwindle.”  

“Concerns are also mounting that the country could find itself in a similar position to 2011, when Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. from its AAA rating,” the think tank said. 

Yellen warned in an interview with ABC’s “This Week” that “it’s widely agreed that financial and economic chaos will ensue” if Congress fails to act by the deadline.   Debt limit battle: How we got here US could default on national debt as soon as early June: analysis

A report published by the Penn Wharton Budget Model Monday said the deadline to raise the nation’s debt ceiling will hit sooner than previously thought because tax receipts in April fell below projections.  

Alexander Arnon, the director of business tax and economic analysis for the Penn Wharton Budget Model, said “we found, as noted by the Treasury secretary and by the Congressional Budget Office, that tax receipts in April came in quite a bit lower.”  

“There was a drop off [in tax receipts] relative to what was expected and we are much closer [to default] than people had hoped earlier this year,” he said.  

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Hobbycraft-owner Modella circles WH Smith high street chain

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Hobbycraft-owner Modella circles WH Smith high street chain

The owner of Hobbycraft is among a pack of suitors circling WH Smith, the 233-year-old high street chain which has been put up for sale.

Sky News has learnt that Modella Capital, whose executives have previously been involved in retailers including Paperchase and Tie Rack, is one of a handful of parties to have held discussions with WH Smith and its advisers.

The likelihood of Modella completing a deal to acquire the 500-store chain was unclear on Monday.

Modella’s executives include Steve Curtis, whose biography on the firm’s website describes his “successful transactions [as including] Jigsaw, Paperchase, Feather & Black, Rolling Luggage and Tie Rack”.

One of the firm’s investment advisers is Jamie Constable, a prominent turnaround investor who is associated with firms including Rcapital, Quilam Capital and Blazehill Capital.

Money blog: Price of European holidays surges

City sources said that WH Smith – which confirmed at the weekend that it was considering a sale of the business following a Sky News report – was keen to wrap up a deal during the spring.

The disposal would, if completed, leave London-listed WH Smith as a company focused on its more lucrative travel retail operation in airports, railway stations and hospitals, which comprises about 1,200 stores globally.

Modella is said to be bidding against a number of other experienced retail investors, including the Apollo-backed firm Alteri, which owns the Bensons for Beds chain.

WH Smith, which is being advised by bankers at Greenhill, declined to comment on Monday, while Modella has been contacted for comment.

A sale of its high street arm would mark a watershed moment for the UK high street, which first saw the appearance of the name in 1792.

The business, which specialises in selling items such as greeting cards and stationery, employs about 5,000 people across the country.

Run by Carl Cowling, chief executive, the disposal of its high street arm and repositioning as a pure-play travel retail company was welcomed by investors on Monday, with shares in WH Smith rising by about 2.5%.

The division recorded flat operating profit of £32m last year, with WH Smith’s travel business accounting for 75% of the company’s revenue and 85% of trading profit.

There have been questions about the future of WH Smith’s high street division for many years amid carnage elsewhere in the sector, with the likes of BHS, Debenhams and Comet all ceasing to trade from physical stores in the last 15 years.

Last week, it emerged that roughly 15 WH Smith shops would be closed this year – part of an annual rationalisation of its store estate.

In 2006, the company’s news distribution arm, now known as Smiths News, was demerged into a separate London-listed company.

Reiterating its weekend response to Sky News’s report, WH Smith told the London Stock Exchange on Monday: “WH Smith plc notes the recent press speculation regarding its high street business.

“WHSmith confirms that it is exploring potential strategic options for this profitable and cash-generating part of the group, including a possible sale.

“Over the past decade, WHSmith has become a focused global travel retailer. The group’s travel business has over 1,200 stores across 32 countries, and three-quarters of the group’s revenue and 85% of its trading profit comes from the travel business.

“There can be no certainty that any agreement will be reached, and further updates will be provided as and when appropriate.”

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North Koreans ‘blow themselves up with grenades rather than risk capture’, say Ukraine soldiers

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North Koreans 'blow themselves up with grenades rather than risk capture', say Ukraine soldiers

North Korean troops appear to have temporarily pulled back from the frontline in Russia after suffering heavy losses, a Ukrainian special forces commander has told Sky News.

The commander, who goes by the codename “Puls”, said Kim Jong Un‘s men were likely either learning lessons from mistakes made during their first, bloody clashes with Ukrainian soldiers, tending to their wounded or waiting for reinforcements.

“I think they’ll be back soon,” he said, speaking at a secret base in northeastern Ukraine.

A Ukrainian soldier takes forensic samples from the body of a North Korean on the battlefield
Image:
A Ukrainian soldier takes forensic samples from the body of a North Korean on the battlefield

Interviews with several Ukrainian troops reveal remarkable details about how the North Koreans have been fighting since they arrived on the battlefield in the Russian region of Kursk last month. This includes:

• An apparent initial lack of awareness about the threats from drones and artillery, with North Korean soldiers attacking on foot “like something out of World War Two” in groups of 20, 40 or even 60 men, making themselves easy targets

• “Brainwashing” which means they keep pushing forward despite being under Ukrainian fire and with comrades being killed and wounded around them

• A desire to remove evidence of their presence from the warzone, with North Koreans in white helmets spotted trying to recover the wounded and the dead

More on North Korea

• A refusal to be taken alive, with claims that North Koreans have been seen blowing themselves up with grenades rather than risk capture. Puls even claimed a North Korean has been heard shouting “For General Kim Jong Un” before killing himself

• Poor coordination between North Korean and Russian forces because of the language barrier. One soldier claimed radio intercepts revealed North Koreans accidentally targeted Russian positions. He also said they would storm Ukrainian positions, suffering losses, but Russian troops would then fail to exploit the gains

• Better kit than many Russians, including rifles and uniform, but a lack of heavy armour, with North Koreans only moving on foot and using golf buggies to transport ammunition.

“They were all clean-shaven and perfectly groomed, like models,” said Puls.

“Every single one – no beards, unkempt hair, or bald heads… It was also hard to determine their age. They all looked between 25 and 35, maybe up to 40.”

Ukrainian special forces move in on a unit of North Koreans that has been hit by hit by drones and artillery
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Ukrainian special forces during the operation

North Korean troop deployment not officially confirmed

Ukraine and its Western allies say Pyongyang has sent 11,000 troops to join Russia’s war, focusing on bolstering infantry lines in the Kursk region where Ukrainian troops captured swathes of territory in a daring invasion last August.

Neither Kim Jong-Un nor Vladimir Putin have officially confirmed the deployment.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed last week that some 4,000 North Korean soldiers have already been killed or injured.

Read more from Sky News:
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A Ukrainian commander, who goes by the codename 'Puls'
Image:
A Ukrainian commander, who goes by the codename ‘Puls’

Puls commands the 1st Combat Divers Battalion of Special Operations Forces.

His elite commandos were tasked with capturing DNA samples and documents from a unit of about 25 North Korean soldiers who were killed in a drone and artillery barrage about a fortnight ago inside Kursk.

Body camera footage from the mission has been shared with Sky News. Edited clips have also been posted on social media.

Ukrainian soldiers get forensic samples from the bodies of dead North Koreans
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Samples of saliva and hair are taken from dead North Koreans

Forensic samples taken

Ukrainian soldiers can be seen carefully sticking cottonwool buds into the mouths of dead North Korean troops to take samples of saliva and place them in an evidence bag.

They then remove the troops’ helmets, cutting clumps of hair and bagging them as well.

In addition, body armour is cut away so the Ukrainians can more easily access the documents and other items on each soldier, including military identity cards, dog tags, handwritten notes and photographs.

There was also evidence of real lives and loved ones back home
Image:
There was also evidence of loved ones back home

‘North Koreans only had ammo and chocolate’

One of Puls’s men, who took part in the operation and goes by the codename “Trainer”, said he was surprised that the North Koreans only had ammunition and chocolate as supplies to sustain them in the fight.

“Not a single soldier had a water bottle,” he said.

“They rely on the idea that they will storm through, take positions, and then eat and survive off our supplies.”

Asked what personal belongings he found, Trainer said: “There were letters. Of course, there were notebooks, notes. There were hand-drawn maps… There were photos of children, mothers, letters they tried to send home.”

Military identity cards were Russian - a seemingly clumsy attempt to hide the true ethnicity of the soldiers
Image:
Military identity cards were Russian, suggesting a bid to hide the true ethnicity of the troops

The military identity cards were Russian – a seemingly clumsy attempt to hide the true ethnicity of the soldiers.

Trainer said some of the notes appeared to be of soldiers’ experiences in battle. He said it seemed as though they were trying to learn from their exposure to modern warfare.

“It’s the experience they are accumulating for their country, for conflicts they might face in the future,” he said.

North Koreans ‘more disciplined’

Puls described how the North Koreans fought differently from the Russians.

“They are far more disciplined, with exceptional morale and determination – completely brainwashed, really,” he said.

Puls said about a fortnight ago he noticed the North Koreans pulling back.

“The Russians are standing, working everywhere along the frontline, but no Koreans,” he said.

“Either they’re analysing their mistakes, or tending to their wounds, or maybe they’re waiting for reinforcements. There’s talk that Kim Jong-Un is sending more North Koreans here. That’s the situation.”

He said intercepted Russian communications appeared to indicate they would be returning.

“They’re still present, training or waiting for reinforcements. Something is happening, they’ll be back soon.”

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Rebels in Democratic Republic of Congo say they have taken key city of Goma

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Rebels in Democratic Republic of Congo say they have taken key city of Goma

Congolese rebels say they have “taken” the key city of Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

The leader of a rebel alliance that includes the M23 group reiterated on Sunday that government forces had until 3am to surrender their weapons.

It comes after 13 soldiers serving with peacekeeping forces in the DRC were killed in clashes with the rebels, United Nations officials said.

Congolese rebels and allied Rwandan forces entered the key eastern city of Goma on Sunday and the airport is no longer in use, according to the DRC’s top UN official.

“M23 and Rwandan forces penetrated Munigi quarter in the outskirts of Goma city, causing mass panic and flight amongst the population,” said the UN’s special representative in the DRC, Bintu Keita, to an emergency UN meeting on Sunday.

People displaced by the fighting with M23 rebels make their way to the centre of Goma on Sunday. Pic: AP
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People displaced by the fighting with M23 rebels make their way to the centre of Goma on Sunday. Pic: AP

The strategic city of Goma has a population of about two million people and is a regional hub for security and humanitarian efforts.

Eyewitness: Sky News team in DRC attacked as civilians flee

The M23 is mainly made up of ethnic Tutsis who broke away from the Congolese army more than a decade ago.

It’s one of about 100 armed groups that have been vying for a foothold in the mineral-rich region, where a long-running conflict has created one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises.

In recent weeks, it has made significant territorial gains.

The DRC has accused neighbouring Rwanda of fuelling the M23 rebellion and has now severed diplomatic ties with it.

Rwanda has denied the claims but last year admitted it has troops and missile systems in eastern Congo to safeguard its security, pointing to a build-up of Congolese forces near the border.

“Rwanda is trying to get in by all means, but we are holding firm,” a Congolese military source told the Reuters news agency on Sunday.

“It is war, there are losses everywhere… the population must remain calm, we are fighting,” they added.

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Tensions rise in Congo with fears of ‘invasion’

The DRC has recalled its diplomats from Rwanda and asked Rwandan authorities to cease diplomatic and consular activities in the Congolese capital, Kinshasa.

A UN Security Council meeting to discuss the escalating violence was scheduled for Monday but was brought forward to Sunday.

During that meeting, France and the UK pressured Rwanda over its role in the conflict.

France called for Rwanda to withdraw its troops from Congo territory, while Britain called for an end to attacks on peacekeepers by M23 rebels receiving support from Rwanda.

UN armoured personnel carriers deploy outside Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo on Saturday. Pic: AP
Image:
UN armoured personnel carriers deploy outside Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo on Saturday. Pic: AP

It comes after a Congolese military governor was killed while on the frontline during a M23 offensive on Friday.

On Saturday, the Congolese army said it foiled an M23 offensive towards Goma with the help of its allied forces, including UN troops and soldiers from the Southern African Development Community Mission, also known as SAMIDRC.

The burning wreckage of a white armoured fighting vehicle carrying UN markings could be seen on a road between Goma and Sake.

A UN armoured personnel carrier burns during clashes with M23 rebels outside Goma. Pic: AP
Image:
A UN vehicle burns during clashes with M23 rebels outside Goma. Pic: AP

South Africa said nine of its peacekeepers had been killed amid the surge in fighting during the last few days.

Three Malawians and a Uruguayan were also killed, the UN said.

Read more from Sky News:
Holocaust survivor ‘jumped from death train’
Trump plans to call Starmer within 24 hours

Decades of conflicts in the eastern DRC between rival armed groups over land and resources, and attacks on civilians, have killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced more than seven million.

Militias also include the Cooperative for the Development of the Congo (CODECO) and the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF).

The UN peacekeeping force entered the DRC more than two decades ago and has around 14,000 soldiers on the ground.

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