Since the local elections Reform UK has had no shortage of good polls.

But a new one suggests Nigel Farage‘s party has a chance not only of winning the next election, but of claiming a decent Commons majority, too.

In February, Reform topped a Sky News/YouGov poll for the first time, with Nigel Farage’s party edging in front on 25%, Labour pushed into second on 24%, with the Tories on 21%.

But a fresh one from Ipsos puts Reform on 34%, nine points ahead of Labour on 25%, with the Conservatives a distant third on 15%.

While the other parties are flatlining, Reform appears to be pushing boundaries.

Were these figures to be replicated across the country at a general election, with every constituency behaving the same way, then Reform could win as many as 340 seats, giving it a majority of 30, Sky News analysis suggests.

Labour could be reduced to 176 seats, down 236 on last year’s election, while the Tories would hit a record low of 12 seats.

But polling should always be taken with a pinch of salt and with the firm acknowledgement that there is not an election coming any time soon.

Conservative backbenchers might also tell you publicly that opinion polls are notoriously difficult to translate into seat numbers because voting percentages in individual constituencies can vary hugely from the overall average.

But the truth is that the symbolism of Reform UK topping another poll is likely to be noticed by MPs from all parties, especially backbench Conservatives who have actively been hoping their leader, Kemi Badenoch, can help them climb the polls and bring the party back into public favour.

Politics is a brutal game and when it comes to toppling underwhelming party leaders, the Tories are more ruthless than most. One wonders how many of these polls Mrs Badenoch’s party will allow her to endure.

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This poll is also a warning to Labour.

As the party approaches a year since its major victory, it will not have much to celebrate if these numbers are anything to go by.

According to this survey, only 19% are satisfied with the job Sir Keir Starmer is doing as prime minister, with 73% dissatisfied.

And the figure of 25% of voters intending to vote Labour is a level not seen since October 2019.

While abstract to much of the public, polling can often shape not only the chatter inside Westminster but how and when plots by MPs begin.

For Reform UK, this is a much-needed morale boost after a surprise resignation by their former Chairman Zia Yusuf, and then an almost immediate U-turn back into the party.

And Kemi Badenoch – who said during her leadership campaign that the Conservatives needed to go back to first principles and that this would take time – will be wondering, seven-and-a-half months after winning the leadership, how much time she really has left.

Ipsos interviewed a representative probability sample of 1,180 British adults aged 18+, via the Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel. Data was collected between 30 May-4 June 2025.

The impending ban on protest group Palestine Action has divided opinion – described as both “outrageous” and “long overdue”.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is expected to take the step after the group broke into RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire on e-scooters and sprayed two Voyager planes with red paint.

The prime minister described the attack as “outrageous” and a rapid review of security at MoD bases is under way.

It was the latest protest in a five-year campaign from Palestine Action (PA) that has targeted arms manufacturers, financial institutions, political figures and government buildings.

Red spray paint has become its signature.

On its website, PA says it is a “direct action movement” committed to ending “global participation” in what it calls Israel’s “genocidal and apartheid regime”.

It adds that it uses “disruptive tactics” to target “corporate enablers of the Israeli military-industrial complex”.

Banning the group would make membership of it illegal. It would be treated as a terrorist organisation.

Saeed Taji Farouky, a spokesman for PA, told Sky News that potential proscription was “unfair”, adding that it was “ludicrous” that a “civil society direct action group” could end up on the same list as ISIS.

He added: “It’s not logical, it’s not even consistent with the British legal definition of terrorism, it’s a reaction that’s been taken overnight, with almost no discussion or debate.

“The whole thing is incredibly worrying, mostly for what it means about British law in general, about undermining the very basis of British democracy and the rule of law.”

There are “no circumstances” under which the two people who breached Brize Norton would be handed over to the police, he said.

Singer-songwriter Paloma Faith, who spoke at a pro-Palestine rally in Whitehall in central London on Saturday, told Sky News she was “devastated” by the move.

“I have met some of the people who have friends in that group. They are young students and they are basically trying to do something because they feel that our government is failing them.”

She added that “everyone” wants to end what she described as a “massacre” in Gaza.

Israel says its military campaign in Gaza is a way of defending itself against Hamas, which killed more than a thousand people in its 7 October attacks and took about 240 people hostage. Hamas-run health authorities claim Israeli attacks have since killed almost 56,000 people in Gaza.

Faith continued: “When you scribble on something, or paint on it, it’s a non-violent protest and it shouldn’t be made at the same level as a violent protest – it is unjust.”

Ben Jamal, director of the Palestine Solidarity Campaign, backed Palestine Action’s use of non-violent protest.

He told Sky News: “There has been a place for that in all political movements in history.

“In the struggle for the rights of black people in the US, in the struggle against apartheid in South Africa, in the struggle for women to have the vote, people took forms of non-violent direct action.

“Imagine if we had the current [situation] back in those days – we would have been proscribing the suffragettes, treating them as terrorists.”

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Others have welcomed the move. Lord Walney, who served as the government’s independent adviser on political violence, told Sky News the decision was “long overdue”.

“Palestine Action have acted as the enemy within which is why it’s right, now, to crack down on them,” he said.

“They have terrorised working people for a number of years and there’s a number of serious violent charges that are going through the court system at the moment.”

The UK government is expected to announce its decision early next week.

A yellow warning is in place for “potentially intense” thunderstorms in large parts of the country – and some places could have up to 40mm of rainfall in less than two hours.

The Met Office said there could also be “frequent lightning, large hail and strong winds”.

The alert lasts until 3am on Sunday and covers parts of northern England, northeast Wales and the Scottish Borders.

The Met Office urged those in the warning areas to consider if their location is at risk of flash flooding and to prepare accordingly.

Forecasters have said the heatwave in parts of England and Wales provides “perfect conditions” for thunderstorms.

On Saturday, the UK had the hottest day of 2025 so far, with a temperature of 33.2C (91.7F) recorded in Charlwood, Surrey.

Scores of rail passengers were evacuated after some services were halted following a fault on a train.

And thousands of people watched the sunrise over Stonehenge in Wiltshire to celebrate the summer solstice, marking the year’s longest day.

Met Office meteorologist Jonathan Vautrey said “hot and humid air is being dragged up” from parts of continental Europe.

“But we also have low pressure out in the Atlantic, and that is driving weather fronts across the UK, providing instability in the air and the perfect conditions to start sparking off some thunderstorms as that hot and humid air rises rapidly,” he added.

The east of England, including London and the South East, could experience a “tropical night”, although most of the country will see “a lot cooler” and “a lot fresher” conditions, Met Office forecaster Dan Stroud said.

“In one or two spots, that could potentially be a tropical night, which is where the overnight minimums actually fail to drop below 20 degrees (centigrade),” he added.

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Sunday will see a day of “sunny spells and showers” with highs of around 27C and 28C, Mr Stroud said.

An amber heat-health alert for all regions in England remains in place over the weekend.

The alert, issued by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), has warned that significant impacts are likely during the alert period across health and social care services, including a rise in demand.