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There are better places for Amazon to put their capital to work, says Bernstein's Mark Shmulik

In its quest to upend everything from health care and grocery stores to internet satellites, Amazon has become too unfocused and is missing out on opportunities in its core businesses, according to Bernstein analysts, who on Wednesday published what they called an “open letter” to CEO Andy Jassy and the board.

Amazon remains dominant in e-commerce and cloud computing with Amazon Web Services. In some other areas, however, the company has spent heavily without seeing the results, the analysts said.

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“We fully support Amazon’s efforts to uncover and capture the next AWS-sized opportunity,” wrote Bernstein’s Mark Shmulik, who has an outperform rating on the stock. “But what we’ve seen recently is a company simply pursuing too many ideas, with weaker ideas taking away the oxygen, capital, and most importantly focus from the truly disruptive initiatives that ‘only Amazon can do.'”

Amazon’s stock performance compared with its “closest mega-cap peers” — Apple, Microsoft and Google — has also left investors wanting, Shmulik said. Amazon shares are up 50% year to date, but they’ve underperformed top peers by about 52% over a five-year period, he said.

The stock was down 3.6% to $122.12 as of early afternoon New York time.

Shmulik urged Amazon to get back to its “Day One” mentality, referring to a phrase championed by Amazon founder and Executive Chairman Jeff Bezos, who was succeeded by Jassy in July 2021. Bezos famously said a Day One mentality would help Amazon stave off its demise, and described it as continuing to innovate rapidly like a startup, no matter how large the company becomes.

“Day 2 is stasis,” Bezos said in a 2017 shareholder letter. “Followed by irrelevance. Followed by excruciating, painful decline. Followed by death. And that is why it is always Day 1.”

Amazon should “divest, seek outside funding, or trim spend” in health care and its nascent low Earth orbit satellite venture, called Project Kuiper, Shmulik wrote. He pointed to Amazon’s multiyear effort to break into health care, before abandoning efforts like its Care telehealth service, Halo health and fitness band, and a joint health-care venture called Haven.

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Kuiper “appears even more extreme as an investment area,” according to Shmulik, with Amazon committing $10 billion to build out the initiative. Google’s lack of success with its Project Loon, Fiber and Fi efforts signals “capital intensive low-margin utilities aren’t worth the effort regardless of how ‘cool’ the technology may be,” he wrote.

Amazon should even take a page out of Alphabet’s book and strip out Kuiper, health care and possibly Alexa into “other bets,” Shmulik said. Doing so, he says, would show a “far healthier and more profitable core business” and wouldn’t detract from the company’s effort to “build the next AWS.”

Shmulik is also skeptical of Amazon’s ongoing efforts to expand in international markets like Brazil, Singapore and India, where competition remains stiff. He calls it a case of throwing “good money after bad,” despite the strategic value that those markets may hold.

When it comes to Whole Foods, Fresh supermarkets and Go cashierless convenience stories, Amazon needs to “make a call on physical grocery,” Shmulik wrote. Amazon bought Whole Foods for $13.7 billion in 2017, and has continued to build out its grocery offerings on its website, while launching other experimental shops. Recently, the company paused further expansion of its Fresh and Go stores as Jassy looks to cut costs.

Instead of continuing to “tinker with” its Fresh and Go stores, Shmulik said Amazon should “purchase a proven concept such as potential divested KR/ACI stores,” referring to the stores Kroger and Albertsons’ are selling off as part of their planned merger.

Amazon should focus on its core strengths and keep pushing into other areas where it’s gained traction, Shmulik said, encouraging a continued build-out of its advertising and media arms, as well as its Buy With Prime service, which allows websites off of Amazon to take advantage of its Prime delivery benefits.

The current scattershot approach is confusing to shareholders and needs to be cleared up to stem continued underperformance, Shmulik added, calling out uncertainty around where Amazon falls in the artificial intelligence race.

“We get investor questions today asking ‘is AWS in last place in AI?’, ‘is retail actually a profitable business?’, and even ‘do we want Andy on the earnings call?'” Shmulik wrote. “It points to one underlying issue: Amazon doesn’t own its own narrative.”

Amazon didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

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How working for Big Tech lost ‘dream job’ status

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How working for Big Tech lost 'dream job' status

Despite blockbuster earnings from giants such as Alphabet and Microsoft, layoffs continue to ripple through the tech industry.

Layoffs.fyi, a platform monitoring job cuts in the tech sector, recorded more than 263,000 job losses in 2023 alone. As of April, there have been more than 75,000 job losses in the industry so far in 2024.

“So instead of rewarding the growth that we saw [tech companies] all pursue years ago, they’re now rewarding profit,” said Jeff Shulman, professor at the University of Washington’s Foster School of Business. “And so the layoffs have continued. People have become used to them. Regrettably and sadly, it seems that the layoffs are going to be the new normal.”

Even though mass tech layoffs continue, the labor market still seems strong. The U.S. economy added 303,000 jobs in March, well above the Dow Jones estimate for a rise of 200,000, with the unemployment rate edged lower to 3.8%.

According to Handshake, a popular free job posting site for college students and graduates, the tech layoffs have prompted new workers to seek other opportunities. The share of job applications from tech majors submitted to internet and software companies dropped by more than 30% between November 2021 and September 2023.

“Part of the reason why this is happening is because stability is such a major factor in students’ decisions around what types of jobs they apply to and what types of jobs they accept,” said Christine Cruzverga, chief education strategy officer at Handshake. “They’re looking at the headlines in the news and they’re paying attention to all of the layoffs that are happening in Big Tech, and that makes them feel unstable.”

Mass layoffs have eroded the shine of the tech industry, which is why workers are questioning whether getting a job in the tech industry should still be regarded as a “dream job.”

“For the people who are chasing … a tech dream job, I think keep your options open and be realistic,” said Eric Tolotti, senior partner engineer at Snowflake, who got laid off from Microsoft in 2023. “Don’t just focus on one company and feel like you have to get into that one company because it’s the dream.”

Watch the video to learn about tech workers’ sentiments, considerations for aspiring Big Tech employees, and more.

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Digital ad market is finally on the mend, bouncing back from the ‘dark days’ of 2022

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Digital ad market is finally on the mend, bouncing back from the 'dark days' of 2022

A view of Google Headquarters in Mountain View, California, United States on March 23, 2024. 

Tayfun Coskun | Anadolu | Getty Images

Advertising is so back.

After a brutal 2022, when brands reeled in spending to cope with inflation, and a 2023 defined by layoffs and cost cuts, the top digital advertising companies have started growing again at a healthy clip.

Meta, Snap and Google all reported first-quarter results this week, with revenue growth that exceeded analysts estimates and at rates not seen in at least two years. Their financials were primarily driven by improvements across their ad businesses.

The companies entered earnings season in a favorable position in that their numbers would be comparable to historically weak periods. But investors and analysts were cautious in their expectations, given the political and economic instability in various markets across the globe and the ongoing challenges posed by high consumer prices.

Meta, which was the first in the group to report results, put some fears to rest on Wednesday, showing a 27% jump in first-quarter revenue to $36.5 billion. For the Facebook parent, it was the strongest rate of expansion since 2021.

“When Meta was in its dark days two years ago, the company knew what they had to do to get back on track,” analysts at Bernstein wrote in a note after the earnings report. “To their credit, Meta defended the core.”

That dark era was defined by the combination of macroeconomic challenges and Apple’s iOS privacy change, which made it harder for social media companies to target users with ads. Meta lost two-thirds of its value in 2022 and was forced to dramatically cut headcount.

A smartphone is displaying Facebook with the Meta icon visible in the background.

Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Meta responded by rebuilding its ad system, with the help of hefty investments in artificial intelligence, so it could deliver value to brands despite the roadblock imposed by Apple. The stock almost tripled in 2023.

While the company’s first-quarter results beat estimates across the board, the shares tanked on Thursday after CEO Mark Zuckerberg focused his post-earnings commentary on the many ways Meta is spending money in areas outside of advertising, notably the metaverse.

“We’ve historically seen a lot of volatility in our stock during this phase of our product playbook where we’re investing in scaling a new product but aren’t yet monetizing it,” Zuckerberg said on the earnings call late Wednesday.

The Bernstein analysts, who recommend buying the shares, said Meta’s ad revenues were led by strength in online commerce, gaming, entertainment and media, and that China-based ad demand “remained strong.” Meta has benefited from a surge in spending from Chinese discount retailers like Temu and Shein.

“Without sounding overly religious, you either believe in Zuck or you don’t, and we do,” the analysts wrote.

‘Incrementally positive’

Alphabet followed on Thursday, reporting ad revenue for the first quarter of $61.66 billion, up 13% from the year prior, with YouTube ad revenue jumping 21% to $8.09 billion. The company as a whole grew 15%, a rate last seen in 2022, and the stock shot up 10% on Friday, the sharpest rally since 2015.

During the quarterly call with investors, Alphabet finance chief Ruth Porat said the company is “very pleased” with the momentum of its ad businesses.

Analysts at Citi wrote in a note on Friday that the broader advertising environment is “clearly strengthening,” pointing to accelerating growth within Google Search and YouTube.

“We emerge from Q1 results incrementally positive on shares of Alphabet,” the analysts wrote, maintaining their buy recommendation.

Snap shares rocketed 28% on Friday after the company reported a 21% increase in revenue to $1.19 billion, the strongest growth in two years. In each of Snap’s past six quarters, sales either grew in single digits or declined.

The company said it’s seeing accelerating demand for its ad platform and benefiting from an improved operating environment, according to its investor letter.

Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a report on Friday that Snap delivered a “much-needed” beat, and that its ad stack is back on track. The analysts, who have a buy rating on the stock, said investors appear “most encouraged by the ad platform investments, which are showing increasing promise.”

Despite the rally, Snap shares are still down 14% for the year.

Investors will get a clearer picture of the digital ad market next week, with Pinterest reporting on Tuesday alongside Amazon, which has emerged as a giant in online ads. Reddit will follow on May 7, reporting earnings for the first time since the social media company’s initial public offering in March.

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Snap shares rocket 28% after company reports unexpected profit, better-than-expected revenue

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Snap shares rocket 28% after company reports unexpected profit, better-than-expected revenue

A view of the atmosphere during the Snap Partner Summit 2023 at Barker Hangar on April 19, 2023 in Santa Monica, California. 

Joe Scarnici | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

Snap shares surged 28% on Friday after the company surprised Wall Street by showing a profit and reported sales and user numbers that exceeded analysts’ estimates.

The stock climbed $3.15 to close at $14.55, its biggest percentage gain since 2022. Even after the rally, the stock is down 14% for the year due to a 31% plunge in February.

Revenue in the first quarter increased 21% to $1.19 billion from $989 million a year earlier, topping analysts’ estimates for sales of $1.12 billion, according to LSEG.

The company reported adjusted earnings per share of 3 cents, while analysts were expecting a 5-cent loss. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was $46 million, compared to analysts’ expectations for a loss of $68 million.

Snap said adjusted EBITDA “exceeded our expectations” and was primarily driven by operating expense discipline, as well as accelerating revenue growth.

Snap has been working to rebuild its advertising business after the digital ad market stumbled in 2022. Its investments are starting to pay off. The company said in its investor letter that revenue growth was primarily driven by improvements in the advertising platform, as well as demand for its direct-response advertising solutions. 

“I think more broadly, we saw a much more robust brand environment, which played out in all of our regions in Q1,” CFO Derek Andersen said on the earnings call.

User growth was also better than expected. Snap reported 422 million daily active users (DAUs) in the first quarter, up 10% year over year and topping the average analyst estimate of 420 million, according to StreetAccount.

In February, Snap announced it would lay off 10% of its global workforce, or around 500 employees. The company said Thursday that headcount and personnel costs will “grow modestly” through the rest of the year. 

Advertising revenue came in at $1.11 billion in the first quarter. Snap’s “Other Revenue” category, which is primarily driven by Snapchat+ subscribers, reached $87 million, an increase of 194% year over year. Snap reported more than 9 million Snapchat+ subscribers for the period.

Though Snap’s growth was its fastest since March 2022, it still fell behind that of Meta, which reported 27% growth in its better-than-expected first-quarter results on Wednesday. Meta shares plunged anyway after the company issued a light forecast and spooked investors with talk of its long-term investments.

For the second quarter, Snap expects to report revenue between $1.23 billion and $1.26 billion, up from the $1.22 billion expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount.

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