The 12-team College Football Playoff has significantly broadened the pool of candidates to include any team that has a chance to win its conference — and that makes every FBS race matter longer, as the selection committee’s five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff.

Heading into the final Saturday of September, the shifting continues as conference races are just beginning to heat up.

Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into three groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.

The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.

Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC

Spotlight: Ole Miss. The Rebels gained serious top-12 consideration this week after a 4-0 start that included back-to-back wins against SEC opponents (Kentucky and Arkansas) and a 45-10 drubbing of a talented Tulane team. Ole Miss is No. 7 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which means the average top-25 team would have a 47.7% chance to achieve the same record against the same opponents. The real test, though, is on Saturday when Ole Miss hosts LSU (3:30 p.m., ABC). If the Rebels win, they should be undefeated heading into back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma. Those are the most difficult games on the schedule. If the Rebels can go 2-1 against those three opponents, they’d almost certainly be in. ESPN’s FPI gives Ole Miss a 67% chance to reach the playoff.

The enigma: Texas. The Longhorns dropped out of the top 12 this week because Texas Tech moved in. That doesn’t mean Texas isn’t a playoff team — it just hasn’t proved it yet with wins against San Jose State, UTEP and Sam Houston. The SEC season opener at Florida on Oct. 4 is also a strange one, as it’s a game the Longhorns could lose but shouldn’t if they are a real playoff team. They’ve got a bye week to prepare for it. A Texas win won’t do much to reassert its place in the national picture, but a loss would be telling. The most likely outcome is the selection committee will learn more about Texas on Oct. 11 against rival Oklahoma, which is in the projected top 12 this week.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas A&M

Work to do: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas, Vanderbilt

Would be out: Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina

Big Ten

Spotlight: Indiana. No team saw its playoff chances increase more this week than Indiana, which jumped 28% and now has a 57% chance to reach the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Saturday’s historic beatdown of the Illini pushed the Hoosiers to No. 11 in the latest projection, but that means they would be excluded from the field during the seeding process. IU would get bumped out to make room for Memphis, the projected winner of the American and fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. Because Memphis is currently projected outside of the committee’s top 12 — and projected Big 12 winner Texas Tech is currently in the No. 12 spot — the committee’s No. 11 team is the one that gets bounced. If the Hoosiers continue to dominate, though, they will likely climb to a safer spot within the top 10. Indiana has a tougher playoff path this year than last, as it travels to both Oregon and Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Hoosiers less than a 50% chance to beat the Ducks but projects them to beat Penn State.

The enigma: Michigan. The true identity of this team — whether it’s been with interim head coach Biff Poggi or head coach Sherrone Moore — remains a mystery. The Wolverines continue to develop along with freshman starting quarterback Bryce Underwood, who has rebounded since the Week 2 loss at Oklahoma. Michigan found a way to win at Nebraska, the defense for the most part has been above average, and the Wolverines don’t have to play Penn State or Oregon. With the exception of the regular-season finale against rival Ohio State, Michigan’s toughest game will be on Oct. 11 at USC. The Wolverines most likely need to at least split with those opponents to avoid a third loss. If Michigan can do that and finish as a two-loss team, the selection committee would give the Wolverines serious consideration for a top-12 spot. The question is how many other two-loss teams would be out there — and how their résumés would stack up.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State

Work to do: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, USC, Maryland, Washington

Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin

ACC

Spotlight: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (12.2%), according to ESPN Analytics, behind Florida State and Miami. Georgia Tech doesn’t face either of those teams during the regular season — which is why the Jackets might not lose until the regular-season finale against rival Georgia. And they took the Bulldogs to eight overtimes last year in one of the wildest games of the season. If the Jackets finish as a one-loss team with a close loss to Georgia, they’d be in the ACC title game. Florida State and Miami play each other, so one of them has a guaranteed league loss. Georgia Tech would be a lock with an ACC title, but what if it loses, with its only two losses coming to two conference champions — Georgia and whoever wins the ACC? The committee would have a significant debate about this, and it would depend on how the game unfolded and how many other two-loss teams were out there. It’s hard to imagine the committee excluding the ACC runner-up in that scenario, which means the league could get three teams in.

The enigma: Syracuse. That’s right, the Syracuse team that beat Clemson. On the road. With its backup quarterback finishing the game. Are these guys for real? Their lone loss was to a Tennessee team that remains in the committee’s projected top 12. The wins, though, leave something to prove before Syracuse is taken seriously as a contender in the ACC, let alone the CFP. The Orange needed overtime to beat UConn, and the committee will look right over a 66-24 win against Colgate. It’s going to get more difficult, as the Orange will face Georgia Tech and have back-to-back November road trips to Miami and Notre Dame, with a bye week in between. And if Syracuse is going to keep winning, it’s going to have to do it with backup quarterback Rickie Collins, an LSU transfer. ESPN’s FPI gives the Orange less than a 50% chance to win each of those games and the Oct. 4 trip to SMU.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Florida State, Miami

Work to do: Cal, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake Forest

Would be out: Boston College, Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, SMU, Stanford, Virginia Tech

Big 12

Spotlight: Iowa State. The Cyclones are still hanging around at 4-0, but Texas Tech has eclipsed them as the team to beat in the Big 12 after Saturday’s win at Utah. The Red Raiders now have the best chance to win the league (28.6%), while Iowa State’s chances of even reaching the game are now seventh best at 13%. The Cyclones’ best win is against rival Iowa, as the season-opening win against K-State in Dublin has been diminished by the Wildcats’ 1-3 start. Iowa State had a bye week to prepare for Saturday’s home game against Arizona, which could be more difficult than it might seem. The key stretch for the Cyclones, though, starts on Oct. 25 against BYU, followed by Arizona State and a Nov. 8 trip to TCU.

The enigma: TCU. Just how good is this Horned Frogs team? The season-opening win at North Carolina caught the nation’s attention for all the wrong reasons — the focus was on Bill Belichick’s first loss as a college coach, not the Frogs’ road win. The 35-24 win against SMU was more impressive, even though it was at home, as it was against the best competition to date and the last scheduled game between the former Southwest Conference rivals. Coach Sonny Dykes has engineered the Frogs to a miracle playoff berth before. Can he do it again? According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, TCU has the third-best chance in the Big 12 to reach the CFP (17.6%). If the Frogs don’t clinch a spot with a Big 12 title, it’s going to be tough to win a debate over other contenders if they finish with two losses.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Texas Tech

Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, UCF, Utah

Would be out: Baylor, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Colorado

Independent

Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish got their first win on Saturday against Purdue and earned some style points in the process, beating the Boilermakers 56-30. They did exactly what they needed to following an 0-2 start. Now they have to do it nine more times. Even with a 10-2 finish, an at-large bid isn’t a guarantee. It depends on how many other 10-2 teams the committee has to consider, what their résumés are — and what those two losses look like. If nothing else, Notre Dame might finish with two of the best losses in the country.

Group of 5

Spotlight: Memphis. The Tigers jumped into the top G5 spot following their 32-31 win against Arkansas on Saturday. Memphis edged South Florida for lead contender status for a playoff bid as one of the five projected highest-ranked conference champions. Memphis rallied from an 18-point deficit to beat Arkansas, its fourth straight home win against an SEC opponent. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Memphis has a 36% chance to reach the playoff, the best among Group of 5 schools. The American has a 73% chance to send a team to the CFP, as four of the six Group of 5 teams with at least a 5% chance come from that conference (Memphis, North Texas, South Florida and Tulane). Speaking of North Texas …

The enigma: North Texas. Meet the Mean Green, an undefeated team that has wins against Washington State and Army. It took overtime to beat both Army and Western Michigan on the road, but North Texas dismantled Washington State 59-10. South Florida and Navy are the two toughest opponents remaining, but North Texas doesn’t currently have any top-25 teams on its schedule. According to ESPN Analytics, it has the second-best chance to win the American (21.5%) behind Memphis (42.7%). Those teams don’t play each other during the regular season.

If the playoff were today

Would be in: Memphis

Work to do: Navy, North Texas, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV

Bracket

Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Miami

Managers who successfully pad their rosters with underappreciated overachievers — either in later rounds or via the free agent market post-draft, while avoiding those who fall flat — are always in superior shape contending for a championship. Sniffing out such characters is the trick, of course, with skill, opportunity, health and career trajectory all playing factors in determining if a player is in position to fly unpredictably high.

We’re taking a slightly different tack this year in looking beyond a player’s fantasy potential in respect to their preseason ranking. While still acknowledging that juxtaposition, approximated Average Draft Position (ADP), plus less tangible elements like reputation and name value are also being considered. We probably don’t need to tell you that Mitch Marner is more treasured than his current No. 52 forward ranking suggests. Instead, this is a forum to discuss sleeper candidates who might not attract sufficient attention otherwise.

One last caveat: No rookies here. While some first-year players — Jimmy Snuggerud, Rutger McGroarty, Sam Rinzel, etc. — undoubtedly qualify, they’re receiving fantasy attention all their own elsewhere. The following dozen have at least one full season under their pads, along with a small handful of those who project to disappoint, relative to where they might be selected in respective drafts.

Sleepers

Lukas Dostal, G, Anaheim Ducks (No. 23 goaltender)

With John Gibson taking over Detroit’s crease, the 25-year-old emerges as the undisputed top dog for a Ducks team on the rise. Offseason additions Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund make this club, including rising stars Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier, better, as does having a successful coach like Joel Quenneville behind the bench. The addition of new assistant Ryan McGill isn’t to be underappreciated either. With more than 25 years experience, McGill possesses a well-earned reputation for improving teams defensively. Music to any goaltender’s ears. Dostal will put up his best personal numbers yet while starting at least 55 games in 2025-26. Grab this emerging gem as your No. 3 netminder and reap the fantasy rewards.

Andrei Kuzmenko, F, Los Angeles Kings (No. 230 forward)

There are worse gigs than skating on a scoring line and top power play with a center such as future Hall-of-Famer Anze Kopitar. Just ask the former Flyer/Flame/Canuck, who contributed five goals and 12 assists in 22 games after being traded to the Kings last winter. We’re not suggesting the enigmatic forward will ever amass 74 points again, including 39 goals, like he did in Vancouver his first NHL season. But 65-plus points alongside Kopitar and Adrian Kempe is not too great an ask, with a hearty portion of them on the power play. Just ensure that’s where Kuzmenko is situated to start the season.

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Cole Perfetti, F, Winnipeg Jets (No. 155 forward)

A favorite sleeper candidate heading into 2025-26, the 23-year-old will be afforded the ripe opportunity to break out in a big way. Entering his fourth full campaign, and with Nikolaj Ehlers gone to Carolina, Perfetti is pegged to again compete on a second scoring line and, extra promisingly, be full-time on a top power play with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. Anticipate more than 65 points this season.

Matias Maccelli, F, Toronto Maple Leafs (No. 138 forward)

If — and this is a Scotiabank Arena-sized if — the former Utah skater can stick on a top Leafs line in Marner’s old spot, as projected early on, he’ll be in for a career year. Anyone who gets the chance to compete with Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies on a regular basis is going to put up points, period. Substantially more than the 17 goals and 40 assists Maccelli collected two years ago with the Coyotes. If not, a gig on a second unit with John Tavares and William Nylander wouldn’t be too crummy either. All told, the 24-year-old should feel fairly pumped about his ceiling in Toronto.

Mathew Barzal, F, New York Islanders (No. 117 forward)

Following last year’s injury-riddled campaign, Barzal feels good again, mentally and physically. Good and charged up to make an impact after logging only 20 points in 30 contests. At full health, and in his prime, Barzal boasts point-per-game potential. Like when he scored 80 in 80 only two seasons ago.

Will Cuylle, F, New York Rangers (No. 87 forward)

Rumored to be in the mix for the Rangers’ captaincy until J.T. Miller captured the honor, the third-year skater is being saddled with extra lofty hopes. As in 30-goal/30-assist expectations. Toss in a good sum of shots and exceptional number of hits — he had 300 this past season — and the 23-year-old is poised to make a whole lot of fantasy noise in deeper, balanced leagues. A full-time gig on a scoring line with Miller and Mika Zibanejad, along with secondary power-play minutes, bolsters such promise. Cuylle isn’t yet a household name outside of New York. He will be soon enough.

Trevor Zegras, F, Philadelphia Flyers (No. 106 forward)

Some fresh slates feel more needed than others. As is the case with Zegras and what strikes as a rather necessary move from Anaheim to Philadelphia. While a slot on the second scoring line and top power play appears the worst-case scenario, a gig on the No. 1 unit with Matvei Michkov and Travis Konecny might also be in the cards. More so than with other teams, how new coach Rick Tocchet massages his lineup in camp should be monitored closely. Particularly in how Zegras is utilized. Still only 24 years old, this is a player with 70-point potential. In fresh digs, he’s positioned to provide a spark in deeper leagues.

Morgan Geekie, F, Boston Bruins (No. 136 forward)

Somewhat quietly, the 27-year-old winger pitched in 57 points in 77 games with the Bruins this past season. Not coincidentally, an overwhelming fraction of them — 22 in the last 14 contests — came after Brad Marchand departed for Florida. A full campaign on a top forward unit and power play with center Elias Lindholm and, more significantly, David Pastrnak, should easily boost Geekie near the 70-point plateau.

JJ Peterka, Utah Mammoth (No. 79 forward)

Out of Buffalo, a spot on a scoring line with Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley, and power play alongside Clayton Keller, should see Peterka notch 70 points, minimum, for the first time in his young career. This young skater also likes to shoot on net. After his breakup with the Sabres, the 23-year-old is now the highest-paid forward with his new club. Time to earn that money.

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Ivan Barbashev, F, Vegas Golden Knights (No. 148 forward)

Mostly on a top line with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, Barbashev averaged 0.73 points/games this past season. Sub in newbie Marner for Mark Stone — if that’s how it does indeed unfold in Vegas — and Barbashev could be in for a slight boost in the production department. The solid forward also likes to throw his body around, to the benefit of fantasy managers in leagues that reward hits.

Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Carolina Hurricanes (No. 51 defenseman)

All he did was score more power-play points (27) than anyone not named Cale Makar, Jake Sanderson, and Quinn Hughes, plus another 18 at even-strength, in only 70 games. Projected to replicate that showing as Carolina’s top unit anchor once more, Gostisbehere merits much greater appreciation in leagues that prize production with the extra skater.

Cam Fowler, D, St. Louis Blues (No. 74 defenseman)

Perennially underrated as a fantasy performer, the former Duck pounded out 36 points in only 51 contests after joining the Blues in December. Nearing 500 career points, the top power-play anchor will bang out another 45 in his first full season with St. Louis. For those who appreciate extra-incentivized skaters, know that Fowler is also in the final year of his current contract.

See also:

• William Eklund, F, San Jose Sharks

• Jackson Blake, F, Hurricanes

• Connor Zary, F, Calgary Flames

• Jiri Kulich, F, Buffalo Sabres

• Shea Theodore, D, Golden Knights

• Jet Greaves, G, Columbus Blue Jackets

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Busts

Connor Bedard, F, Chicago Blackhawks (No. 38 forward)

Chicago’s franchise player needs to be surrounded by a stronger supporting cast. Until then, the 2024 Calder winner won’t break the point-per-game barrier. With Bedard entering the final year of his entry-level deal, Blackhawks management should start making tangible improvements to this roster asap.

Steven Stamkos, F, Nashville Predators (No. 24 forward)

The former Lightning legend scored just 53 points in Nashville last year. While we don’t anticipate a repeat of that uncharacteristically lousy performance from the career better-than-point/game player, he isn’t likely to pitch in upwards of 75 either. So the No. 20 ranking feels off-base.

Mike Matheson, D, Montreal Canadiens (No. 18 defenseman)

In Lane Hutson‘s Calder-winning shadow, Matheson saw his production drop from 62 points in 2023-24 to 31 this past season. Now Noah Dobson is aboard, so how many power-play points can we now expect from the 31-year-old? Answer: Not nearly enough to merit this high ranking.

Brent Burns, D, Colorado Avalanche (No. 53 defenseman)

Joining his fourth NHL team in 22 years, the veteran defender will enjoy another legit shot at winning his first Stanley Cup. So we don’t expect the 40-year-old to complain much about taking a blue-line backseat to the likes of Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Samuel Girard etc. After potting 61 points in Carolina in 2022-23, Burns eked out only 29 this past season. As a projection, that sum feels like his ceiling with the Avalanche.

Logan Thompson, G, Washington Capitals (No. 12 goaltender)

Making his way over from Vegas, Thompson served as a happy fantasy surprise for many in 2024-25. The concern now is can he come close to repeating his sparkling 31-6-6 record (most likely no) for a Capitals team endeavoring to replicate their 111-point campaign? (Also probably not happening.) Thompson’s .910 SV% suggests a lot else went right in securing himself such an impressive winning percentage. He’s a good fantasy goalie, no question, but not our first choice for a No. 2 in reasonable-sized leagues.

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Oklahoma quarterback and early Heisman Trophy front-runner John Mateer will miss about a month after suffering a broken bone in his right (throwing) hand in Saturday’s win over Auburn, sources told ESPN’s Pete Thamel.

The Sooners announced Mateer will undergo surgery, but did not disclose details of the injury or a timeline for return.

Mateer’s injury came in the first quarter of the 24-17 win, the seventh-ranked Sooners’ second victory over an AP Top 25 team this season.

Mateer is scheduled to undergo the surgery Wednesday in Los Angeles. Dr. Steven Shin will perform the surgery, sources told Thamel. Shin, considered one of the country’s leading hand/wrist surgeons, has worked on Drew Brees, Stephen Curry and Mike Trout.

“After consulting with medical experts, it became clear that surgery is the best option for John and his short- and long-term future,” coach Brent Venables said. “He’s extremely disappointed he will miss some game action but is eager to correct the issue and move forward. As he is with everything, we know he will be aggressive with his rehabilitation and work to return to the field as quickly as possible.”

Mateer’s injury is a massive blow to the Sooners, who are off to a 4-0 start with wins over Michigan and Auburn.

Mateer, who transferred in from Washington State during the offseason, has been the catalyst behind Oklahoma’s stark turnaround after a 6-7 finish in 2024.

He has completed 67.4% of his passes for 1,215 and six touchdowns. He’s also the Sooners’ leading rusher with 190 yards and five more touchdowns. Mateer ranks second nationally with 351.3 yards of total offense per game.

Despite suffering the injury early against Auburn, he finished the game and passed for 271 yards.

With his hot start, Mateer had emerged as the favorite to win the Heisman at +750, according to ESPN BET Sportsbook. Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (+650) is the new favorite as of Tuesday.

Venables said sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. will start Oklahoma’s next game against Kent State on Oct. 4 Hawkins started four games for the Sooners last season, passing for 783 yards and three touchdowns.

Oklahoma faces rival Texas on Oct. 11.

After a trip to South Carolina, the Sooners close out the regular season with five straight games against ranked opponents: No. 13 Ole Miss, at No. 15 Tennessee, at No. 18 Alabama, No. 20 Missouri and No. 4 LSU.