The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.

MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.

There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.

That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.

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It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.

Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.

Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.

Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.

There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.

So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.

This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.

So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.

There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.

Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.

This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.

Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.

In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.

“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”

Read more on assisted dying:
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Five stories that bring the assisted dying debate home
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How MPs are making up their minds
What does the bill propose?

What could make the difference?

Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.

But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.

Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.

The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.

More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.

In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.

They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.

Mr Streeting shocked Westminster when he revealed he had changed his mind after voting for the 2015 version.

He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.

Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.

In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.

As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.

But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.

MPs will on Friday have to make one of the biggest decisions of their careers – whether or not to back assisted dying.

The proposed law would make it legal for over-18s who are terminally ill to be given medical assistance to end their own life in England and Wales.

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The bill – called the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill – sets out detailed requirements in order to be eligible.

The Labour MP proposing it, Kim Leadbeater, says the safeguards are the “most robust” in the world, but others argue it is a “slippery slope towards death on demand”.

What is in the bill?

The purpose of the bill is to allow adults aged 18 and over, who have mental capacity, are terminally ill and are in the final six months of their life, to request assistance from a doctor to die.

This is subject to “safeguards and protections” which include:

• They must have a “clear, settled and informed wish to end their own life” and have reached this decision voluntarily, without coercion or pressure;
• They must have lived in England or Wales for 12 months and be registered with a GP;
• Two independent doctors must be satisfied the person meets the criteria and there must be at least seven days between the doctors making the assessments;
• If both doctors state the person is eligible, then they must apply to the High Court for approval of their request;
• If the High Court decides that the applicant meets the bill’s requirements, then there is a 14-day reflection period (or 48 hours if death is imminent);
• After this, the person must make a second declaration, which would have to be signed and witnessed by one doctor and another person.

What happens if the eligibility criteria is met?

If a person meets all this eligibility criteria, a life-ending “approved substance” would be prescribed.

This would be self-administered, so the individual wishing to die must take it themselves.

This is sometimes called physician-assisted dying and is different from voluntary euthanasia, when a health professional would administer the drugs.

As well as all the conditions set out above, the bill would make it illegal to pressure or coerce someone to make a declaration that they wish to end their life, or take the medicine.

These offences will be punishable by a maximum 14-year prison sentence.

How is this different from the current law?

Suicide and attempted suicide are not in themselves criminal offences. However, under section 2(1) of the Suicide Act 1961, it is an offence in England and Wales for a person to encourage or assist the suicide (or attempted suicide) of another.

Ms Leadbeater says the current framework is “not fit for purpose”, as people who are terminally ill and in pain only have three options – “suicide, suffering or Switzerland”.

Assisted dying has been legal in Switzerland since 1942, with the Dignitas group becoming well-known as it allows non-Swiss people to use its clinics.

There is no government-held data on the number of Britons travelling abroad for assisted dying, but other countries where a form of this is legal include the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, Luxembourg, Canada, New Zealand, Australia and some US states.

Why is it being debated now in England?

The issue has gained renewed attention recently due to campaigning by broadcaster Dame Esther Rantzen. The 84-year-old Childline founder has stage-four lung cancer and revealed last year that she had signed up to Dignitas.

Over the past two decades, the debate has largely been driven by legal challenges to the current regime, brought by people who are suffering and say the current laws violate their human rights.

Parliament last considered the issue in 2015, when MPs voted down assisted dying by 330 votes to 118.

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Ms Leadbeater has brought the issue to the fore through a private members bill, meaning it has been introduced by an MP who is not a government minister.

She wants to give people who are terminally ill and in pain a choice, insisting the bill is about “shortening death rather than ending life”.

What are the main arguments for and against?

Lots of campaigners support Ms Leadbeater’s position. The Campaign for Dignity in Dying says it will give people who are facing unbearable suffering control, so they can have a peaceful death.

They do not support a wider law, unlike My Death, My Decision, who want the bill to apply to people who are suffering with an incurable condition, even if it is not terminal.

However some people oppose any change to the current position. This can be for a variety of reasons, but one of the main arguments is the risk of a “slippery slope” – that the eligibility criteria would widen over time.

Others say good end-of-life care needs to be prioritised, and fear some people will feel pressured to opt for assisted dying if they feel like a burden to society.

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How will the bill be scrutinised?

MPs will debate and vote on this bill on Friday 29 November.

It is a free vote, meaning MPs can side with their conscience and not party lines.

The government is taking a neutral position, though individual cabinet ministers have come out both strongly for and against the proposal.

If passed on Friday, the bill will have to pass many more parliamentary hurdles before it becomes law.

MPs will get a chance to debate the bill again in greater depth during its committee stage and peers will also have ample opportunity to express their views on the legislation in the House of Lords.

Gregg Wallace has thanked people for their “support” in a video posted on Instagram after he stepped down from MasterChef over allegations he made inappropriate sexual comments on a range of programmes over 17 years.

In the short video clip, the MasterChef host said: “I would like to thank all the people getting in touch, reaching out and showing their support. It’s good of you.

“Thank you very much.”

Broadcaster Kirsty Wark is among 13 people who have made claims, with Wallace being investigated by MasterChef’s production company Banijay UK.

In an interview with the BBC, the Newsnight presenter, who was a celebrity contestant on MasterChef in 2011, claimed Wallace used “sexualised language”.

“There were two occasions in particular where he used sexualised language in front of a number of people and it wasn’t as if anyone engaged with this. It was completely one-way traffic,” Wark said.

“I think people were uncomfortable and something that I really didn’t expect to happen.”

Sky News has contacted Wallace’s representative for comment.

Wallace avoided questions when asked by Sky News about the claims.

‘Fully cooperating’

Banijay UK said the complaints were made to the BBC this week by “individuals in relation to historical allegations of misconduct while working with Gregg Wallace on one of our shows”.

The company said the 60-year-old, who has been a co-presenter and judge of the popular cooking show since 2005, was “committed to fully cooperating throughout the process”.

“Whilst these complainants have not raised the allegations directly with our show producers or parent company Banijay UK, we feel that it is appropriate to conduct an immediate, external review to fully and impartially investigate,” the company said.

“While this review is under way, Gregg Wallace will be stepping away from his role on MasterChef and is committed to fully co-operating throughout the process.

“Banijay UK’s duty of care to staff is always a priority and our expectations regarding behaviour are made clear to both cast and crew on all productions, with multiple ways of raising concerns, including anonymously, clearly promoted on set.

“Whilst these are historical allegations, incidences brought to our attention where these expectations are not met, are thoroughly investigated and addressed appropriately.”

A BBC spokesman said: “We take any issues that are raised with us seriously and we have robust processes in place to deal with them.

“We are always clear that any behaviour which falls below the standards expected by the BBC will not be tolerated.

“Where an individual is contracted directly by an external production company we share any complaints or concerns with that company and we will always support them when addressing them.”

The TV star’s lawyers say “it is entirely false that he engages in behaviour of a sexually harassing nature”, BBC News reports.

Previous investigation

Last month, Wallace responded to reports that a previous BBC review had found he could continue working at the corporation following reports of an alleged incident in 2018 when he appeared on Impossible Celebrities.

Wallace said those claims had been investigated “promptly” at the time and said he had not said “anything sexual” while appearing on the game show more than half a decade ago.

In an Instagram post following an article in The Sun newspaper, he wrote: “The story that’s hitting the newspapers was investigated promptly when it happened six years ago by the BBC.

“And the outcome of that was that I hadn’t said anything sexual. I’ll need to repeat this again. I didn’t say anything sexual.”

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Alongside MasterChef, Wallace presented Inside The Factory for BBC Two from 2015.

Wallace has featured on various BBC shows over the years, including Saturday Kitchen, Eat Well For Less, Supermarket Secrets, Celebrity MasterChef and MasterChef: The Professionals, as well as being a Strictly Come Dancing contestant in 2014.

He was made an MBE for services to food and charity last year.

Recorded episodes of MasterChef: The Professionals featuring Wallace will be transmitted as planned, the PA news agency understands.