How the Baltimore Orioles went from raw talent to really good
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Tim Kurkjian, ESPN Senior Writer
BALTIMORE — A WEEK into the 2023 season, the New York Yankees came to Baltimore. It was far too early to tell in which direction the Orioles might go, whether they would build on their 83-79 season in 2022, their first year with a winning record since 2016. Ahead of the series, Orioles manager Brandon Hyde was typically reposed, never agitated, never flustered. He flashed his signature smile to an approaching writer.
“Team is good,” the writer said.
“Team is talented,” Hyde said.
There is a difference, especially in baseball, between talented and good. Just ask the 2023 San Diego Padres, who have tremendous talent yet remain under .500. The Orioles have great young talent, and over the past four months, a relatively short time, they have gone from talented to really good. They have the best record in the American League, only two years removed from finishing 39 games out of fourth place in the AL East. From 2018 through 2021, the Orioles had the worst winning percentage (.326) of any team over a four-year period since the 1962-65 Mets (.300). Now, the Orioles have a chance to join the 1969 Mets as the only teams in baseball history to go from 100 losses to 100 wins in a three-year span.
“It has been an awesome season, but we haven’t won anything yet,” Orioles general manager Mike Elias said. “The process is still on the way up, but the rebuild is over. There is a sense of relief that it worked. It has rejuvenated baseball in this city. That is so cool to see.”
This, after all, is a franchise that, from 1966 to 1983, was the model in baseball. The Orioles posted a .588 winning percentage (the best in baseball) and won world championships in 1966, 1970 and 1983. They were so good for so long that, in 1969, Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver growled to no one on the team bus after losing a game late in the season, “Damn, it’s hard to stay 50 games over .500!”
Highs and lows, mostly lows, followed the 1983 championship season, which was celebrated last weekend at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The 1988 Orioles lost their first 21 games, demolishing the major league record for most consecutive losses to start a season. After American League Championship Series appearances in 1996 and 1997, more struggles ensued before the team made the playoffs three times from 2012 to ’16. But in 2018, the Orioles finished 61 games behind the Red Sox in the AL East, the furthest from first place that any team has finished since the 1942 Phillies finished 62½ out.
After that season, Elias, 40, one of the architects of the championship rebuild of the Houston Astros (in town this week in a possible AL playoff preview), was named the general manager. From Houston, he brought Sig Mejdal, a statistical wizard for multiple teams, a former NASA engineer, a former blackjack dealer, and made him his assistant general manager. Elias and Mejdal promised, like in Houston, a similarly slow, methodical rebuild. Elias was questioned many times along the way by impatient fans. More severe critics claimed the Orioles were tanking in order to build a better farm system.
And then the 2022 season happened.
THE TRANSFORMATION FROM terrible to talented to good began quietly, on April 24 of that year. The Orioles were 6-10, with no sign of escaping last place, or even getting better, anytime soon. They had clawed back from a 6-0 deficit against the Los Angeles Angels only to lose 7-6 on a run scored after two walks and a hit batter in the next inning. Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander was hit by a pitch for a second straight game, and, Hyde said, “we decided right then that we’re not going to take it anymore. We’re coming.”
It took another month before the transformation began publicly, when catcher Adley Rutschman, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft out of Oregon State, made his major league debut on May 21. Since that day, the Orioles have the fourth-best record in baseball; they have not been swept in a series. That is not a coincidence. Rutschman has been that good. He is a switch-hitter with power and born leader whose defense is so advanced that some talent evaluators insist that he was ready to catch in the major leagues when he was a freshman in college.
“I can’t believe how short a time it took for him to take control of the staff,” said former Orioles pitcher Jordan Lyles. “Within a week, whatever finger he put down, that’s what I threw.”
It wasn’t that any of this came as a surprise, exactly. Rutschman won the 2019 Golden Spikes Award for the best college baseball player in the country. He has caught since Little League, even though he didn’t become a full-time catcher until his senior year in high school. Until then, he also played third base, second base and was the team’s closer.
“I was just trying to be as athletic as possible,” he said.
He also was a terrific high school football player in Oregon, a star running back, linebacker and place-kicker. He went to Oregon State on a baseball scholarship but also was the kicker on the football team. His longest field goal was 63 yards. Famously, in a game against Stanford, he tackled star running back Christian McCaffrey on a kickoff return.
Does McCaffrey know he was tackled that day by the Orioles catcher?
“I’m sure he has no idea who I am,” Rutschman said humbly. Has Rutschman ever met McCaffrey?
“No, the only time was that day,” Rutschman said humbly, with a smile.
Rutschman smiles a lot these days. His team is winning, Orioles fans are jazzed about the present and the future, and Rutschman made the All-Star team for the first time this year. At the All-Star Game, he competed in the Home Run Derby. With his father as his BP pitcher, Rutschman hit 27 homers in the first round. Though he lost to Derby winner Vlad Guerrero, he had one of the event’s signature moments when, in the middle of the round, he switched to right-handed and hit six straight homers.
“My dad has thrown BP to me my whole life,” Rutschman said. “Sometimes, we’d finish a round saying, ‘OK, these last five are for the Home Run Derby.’ Life is full for all of us right now.”
With just over a year in the major leagues, some have called Rutschman the best catcher in the game and a future Hall of Famer. His marvelous smile disappears when that is mentioned.
“I tune all that out,” he said. “I just want to play and win with these guys. We just show up to the field with a common purpose. It has been awesome for me to be part of their journey.”
ANOTHER ORIOLE WHOSE talent has never been in question is infielder Gunnar Henderson, 22, a second-round pick in the 2021 draft. After he was called up on Aug. 31, 2022, Yankees manager Aaron Boone said: “He’s going to be a problem.”
Even considering a slow start at the plate this season, he already has been. Because, in part, like Rutschman, Henderson is a great athlete: 6-foot-3, 220 pounds. Fast. Powerful. He was also a great basketball player in high school in Selma, Alabama.
“If I had concentrated as much on basketball as much as I did on baseball as a kid,” Henderson said, shyly, “I probably could have played basketball in college. Maybe the NBA.”
That athleticism allows him to play multiple infield positions although now he is their primary shortstop, with an exceptional throwing arm. He has run the bases with daring aggression: When the Orioles seized first place in the AL East in a stirring series against the Rays after the All-Star break, Henderson doubled to left field, and when Tampa Bay left fielder Randy Arozarena lazily returned the ball to the infield, Henderson took a vacated third base for a triple. It was a signature moment for Henderson and a play that personified this young, hungry team: A great athlete created an advantage by pushing the action. Orioles bench coach Fredi Gonzalez has a nickname for Henderson: Clifford the Big Red Dog, because “all you have to do is throw a ball in the air, and he’ll run after it. That’s Clifford.”
A line of .189/.348/.311 in March and April has climbed to .243/.331/.477 on the year, including an impressive .994 OPS in June.
“We told him not to be afraid to swing earlier in the count,” Hyde said. “He has taken off.” Since the start of June, Henderson has hit 14 home runs and driven in 37 runs, making him a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year. He has also become a hero in his hometown.
“It’s been awesome how great it has been, everyone in our small town knows each other,” Henderson said. “It’s not that small, there are 20,000 people there. But from our high school, I know everyone’s parents and grandparents.”
They all know Gunnar, such a unique name.
“I get asked enough about my name, I finally asked my parents why they named me that,” Henderson said. “They were in the [birthing] room. They just decided on Gunnar. That’s it.”
THE TRANSFORMATION FROM talented to good also included the development of closer Felix Bautista, 28, who was claimed off waivers by the Orioles from the Marlins at age 19 and spent the first five years of his career in rookie ball trying to figure out how to throw strikes.
“I wouldn’t have known his name [in 2020] if you said it, but he kept throwing 100 [mph],” Elias said.
In April 2022, Bautista made his major league debut as a middle reliever. He was already throwing 100, but then he began to throw more strikes, and he became the closer when Jorge Lopez was traded to the Twins in late July. Then, Elias was criticized for trading his closer in the middle of a pennant race. But this year, Bautista made the All-Star team, has a league-leading 30 saves, an 0.85 ERA and 102 strikeouts in 52 2/3 innings (he blew a rare save against the Astros on Tuesday when Kyle Tucker hit a grand slam off Bautista’s 100 mph fastball). At 6-8, 285, he is as big as a doorway, and he has become one of the dominant, intimidating pitchers in baseball.
“And,” Elias said, “he is as emotionally stable as any closer I’ve ever seen.”
The pitcher whom Elias acquired in the Lopez trade with the Twins was Yennier Cano, 28, who posted an 11.25 ERA in 18 innings in 2022, his first year in the major leagues. He had great stuff but also couldn’t throw enough strikes. So, in spring training, the Orioles told Cano to stay with one arm slot, stop varying it, and suddenly, the strikes arrived. He didn’t allow a run in his first 17 appearances, made the All-Star team and now has a 1.86 ERA.
In 2021, the Orioles’ bullpen ERA was 5.70, the highest in baseball. In 2023, it is 3.60, fifth lowest in baseball.
And everyone in Baltimore is so relieved.
PLENTY OF OTHER talents have emerged during the Orioles’ transformation. Kyle Bradish, Cionel Perez, Mike Baumann and Bryan Baker have blossomed since 2021. Dean Kremer‘s ERA dropped from 7.55 in 2021 to 3.23. Dillon Tate (who has missed all of this season) posted a 3.05 ERA.
“In spring training,” Hyde said, “I had no idea what our pitching staff was going to look like. And then about eight pitchers stepped forward during the season.”
Position players bloomed alongside holdover outfielders Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays and Santander, a Rule V acquisition in 2016. Ramon Urias, claimed off waivers from the Cardinals in 2021, won a Gold Glove at third base in 2022. Shortstop Jorge Mateo, who led the AL with 35 stolen bases in 2022, was claimed off waivers from the Padres in 2021. In January 2023, the Orioles grabbed first baseman Ryan O’Hearn from the Royals. His OPS has jumped from .611 to .860.
This year, more kids from the game’s best farm system have debuted, starting with Grayson Rodriguez, one of the top young pitching prospects in baseball and the future ace of the Orioles’ staff. Infielder Jordan Westburg followed, a player Hyde describes as “just another 6-2, 220-pounder who can run.” Then came outfielder Colton Cowser.
And more are on the way. Outfielder Heston Kjerstad could be a star in the major leagues someday. And the best of the group, if not the best player in the minor leagues, is shortstop Jackson Holliday, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft. He was recently promoted to Double-A, where he is tearing it up. It’s possible that he will start next season with the Orioles. He will be the Orioles’ shortstop of the future — unless it’s Henderson. The other will be the third baseman of the future. Imagine the next five years in Baltimore, Holliday and Henderson playing next to each other on the left side of the infield, two of the best young players in baseball.
For this pennant race, under intense pressure to make a trade for a veteran starting pitcher at the deadline, Elias dealt for Jack Flaherty, 27, the former ace of the Cardinals. In his Orioles debut Aug. 3 against Toronto, Flaherty pitched six solid innings and became the first Oriole to strike out eight and walk one in his major league debut since Tom Phoebus in 1966.
“I just got here, it was fun, but I’m glad it’s over,” Flaherty said the next day. “I barely had time to introduce myself to everyone, then I was out there. It was like …’Hi … and bye.”‘
So now the Orioles have the best record in the AL and have perhaps the league’s most exciting team, with a great set of baseball names: Gunnar, Grayson, Adley, King Felix, the lyrical Anthony Santander and the regal Ryan Mountcastle. This is a team set up to win for years to come.
“We now have flexibility on the roster, every player we have can play three positions, we have great balance between left-handed and right-handed hitters,” Elias said. “And we haven’t had a moment of drama in the clubhouse. I’ll say that I object to people saying that we were tanking it. When we got to Houston and rebuilt it, and then to Baltimore, when we got to each place, things were bad. We had to tear it down to make it as good as possible.”
The Orioles, now, are very good. From talented to very good.
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Kiley McDaniel
The 2025 MLB draft begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN, so it is time for one final update as teams lock in their Day 1 boards.
The drama starts right at the top this year, as the Washington Nationals have a difficult decision to make with the No. 1 pick a week after firing their general manager.
In a year without a slam-dunk top player, Oklahoma high school star Ethan Holliday (yes, the son of former major leaguer Matt) and a group of college left-handers (LSU’s Kade Anderson, Tennessee’s Liam Doyle and Florida State’s Jamie Arnold) rank among the top prospects in the class.
Which direction will the Nationals go — and how will the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners follow with the No. 2 and No. 3 picks?
Since this is a last-minute update on what teams could do Sunday night, my writeups here are focused on what has changed since the previous edition. You can find a more detailed look at each team’s strategy in my mock draft 3.0. And remember, this is the order in which I think the players will come off the board, while my draft rankings are the order in which I’d pick the players.
Draft tracker: Results, analysis for every Day 1 pick
More coverage: Mock draft 3.0 | Big question for all 30 teams
Watch: Sunday at 6 p.m. on ESPN
1. Washington Nationals
Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Rank: 1
There have been a lot of rumors flying around over the past few days about what is happening in the wake of the firing of GM Mike Rizzo.
The industry feeling is that what has changed is 1) Anderson is a little more likely to be the pick mostly because Holliday is now a little less likely to be the pick, and 2) taking a bigger cut is a real option, with Eli Willits the main cut-rate possibility, though Aiva Arquette has also been mentioned.
All but Willits are advised by Scott Boras, and he’ll never tip his hand until he has to; now is not the time yet. Nothing is decided here and price will be a factor. If I turned this in 15 minutes before the draft, the Nats might still not have made the decision, so I’ll stick with what seems most likely, even if I don’t feel great about it. Landon Harmon is a rumored later round, overslot target.
For context, a scouting director for a team picking in the top 10 said I shouldn’t feel confident about anything happening in the top three picks specifically, adding, “I’m hearing there’s wars happening in all of those rooms right now” (as of Friday night). I ran that by another director picking up high: “Yeah, we’re hearing the same thing.”
2. Los Angeles Angels
Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Rank: 6
I’m going to stick with Doyle because he makes the most sense for what the Angels have proved they’re looking for in recent drafts: a polished, quick-moving college player who will come at a savings.
I’ve heard at least six players seriously connected to this pick in the past few days: Anderson, Doyle, Arnold, Arquette, Ike Irish and Willits. There are a couple more I’ve been told are under consideration who I’m not taking seriously as options here.
It could be any of these players based on final conversations and bonus pricing info on each player coming in at the last minute. Doyle has a real shot to slide to No. 9 or No. 10 if he doesn’t go here, so he is motivated to give a competitive number.
0:55
Liam Doyle’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Tennessee’s Liam Doyle one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
3. Seattle Mariners
Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 4
The hot rumor of the past few days is that Tyler Bremner will be the pick here at big savings, and that holds up to further analysis because, in style, Bremner and Hernandez (long connected to this pick) are pretty similar.
It’s pretty widely known that Anderson is the No. 1 player for Seattle and will be the pick if he gets here, which still has maybe a 20-30% chance of happening.
If Anderson isn’t here, I think the decision comes down to Bremner at the most savings, Irish at a little less savings or Hernandez at the least savings, broadly speaking. Some sources have said Arquette, Arnold and Kyson Witherspoon are also in play here, but they seem like tertiary options.
I think Bremner having more support in the No. 11-15 area that was reflected in the last mock will raise his price a bit to where Hernandez will be the pick, but this one is also wide open at the moment and will come down to a last-minute bonus price check if Anderson isn’t available.
Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
Rank: 2
There has been some waffling late in the process from sources who think maybe the Rockies wouldn’t pay the overslot price to get Holliday down here — but much of what I hear very late in the process is wrong or intentional misinformation, so I’ll stick with what I’ve been hearing for a literal year.
I think the other options for Colorado if Holliday doesn’t get here are all college pitchers: Anderson, Arnold and Witherspoon, with Willits and Arquette getting some mentions.
1:10
Ethan Holliday’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Ethan Holliday one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Rank: 3
Willits seems securely in play at the top two picks and possibly at No. 4, so the Cardinals landing him here would be considered a solid outcome. I think Anderson and Holliday are the primary targets for this pick and Willits is next up, with Arnold and Irish as the possible underslot options.
Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Rank: 5
It sounds like Hernandez or Willits will be the pick if either is here, so the Pirates are rooting for Seattle to either land Anderson or opt for a cheaper alternative to Hernandez.
Otherwise, JoJo Parker, Arnold, Arquette and Irish are believed to be the four leading options here. Arnold has the most late support, but this one might also come down to money.
I hope you feel sympathy for me having to do this in public when none of these teams know what it will do and won’t for hours.
1:05
Jamie Arnold’s MLB draft profile
Kiley McDaniel explains what makes Florida State’s Jamie Arnold one of the top prospects in this year’s MLB draft.
JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)
Rank: 7
I think this will come down to Parker, Iris, and Billy Carlson — and I think Parker has the edge.
Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Rank: 9
I think the Jays will pick Parker if he gets here and will consider Arnold along with Arquette and Irish if they are still available here. This decision seems to come down to Arquette or Irish, with Carlson and Witherspoon also under consideration.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Ike Irish, RF, Auburn
Rank: 13
I’m getting some late-breaking info that Irish is more of a fit here than Hall, so shuffling a few picks that follow to accommodate for that.
Cincinnati seems to be the floor if Hernandez or Doyle slip, and otherwise the Reds seem to be the ceiling for Hall. Irish, Witherspoon and Carlson are also in the mix.
Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA)
Rank: 8
Carlson’s range seems to be No. 7 to No. 12 (or maybe No. 14). I think the White Sox really want to land the Parker brothers (JoJo and Jacob) but can’t get JoJo to this pick.
The White Sox have been all over high school hitters all spring, and Carlson gets the nod over Gavin Fien.
Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Rank: 18
Bremner is picking up steam at this pick, and I think his floor is now Boston’s pick at No. 15. It’s a bit surprising he could go ahead of Witherspoon, but Bremner clearly has been getting interest in the top half of the first round that just hadn’t leaked out to the industry at large until late. I think this will be a college player, likely a pitcher, with Witherspoon and Brendan Summerhill also mentioned here a lot.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
Rank: 13
A few names shuffled around late Sunday, and now one of the Rangers’ top targets will be available. Marek Houston is also in the mix here.
I think Hall and Carlson are the targets here, but neither will make it to the pick, so Cunningham will become the pick, narrowly over Josh Hammond. I was hearing Cunningham would fit more 20-30, and the late chatter is that he has multiple homes in the teens. As with the White Sox, the belief all spring was that the Rangers want a prep hitter here.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
Rank: 10
In a last-minute update, I shuffled four players and Witherspoon fits here as a solid value.
Irish is in play at most picks starting at No. 2 all the way down to the middle of the first round, but I think his slide would stop here. The Giants have long been tied to Marek Houston and Charles Davalan (a long shot at this pick, but gone by their next one), with Andrew Fischer getting some love as well.
4:15 p.m. ET UPDATE: Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX)
Rank: 25
I think this pick will come down to Cunningham or Sean Gamble in this situation; Gamble could make it to their next pick.
The Rays are tied to prep position players for later picks and could pull a shocker, as I projected in my previous mock, by taking Jaden Fauske here.
I think Hall, Carlson and Cunningham are the main targets, but none of them is available in this projection. Witherspoon is from Florida and is a great value, while the Rays still have a chance to land Fauske at their next pick.
Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS (CA)
Rank: 12
I’ll stick with Fien here as one of the steadiest projections all spring. It sounds like Tyler Bremner will be the pick if he gets here, but that’s now looking unlikely.
Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee
Rank: 20
Kilen fits the type of prospect the Twins have targeted for a while. I could see Houston, Caden Bodine or Gage Wood being options here, too.
Josh Hammond, SS, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC)
Rank: 17
I think the Cubs are targeting in-game power here, and Hammond makes a lot of sense. They’ve scouted Quentin Young pretty hard this spring as well, but this is too early for that kind of risk. Xavier Neyens, Wehiwa Aloy and Wood all fit, as well.
Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest
Rank: 22
I think Cunningham is the target here, but he isn’t available in this scenario. Hammond and Bodine are also mentioned here and I think Slater de Brun will be the selection at Arizona’s next pick.
Jace LaViolette, CF, Texas A&M
Rank: 21
LaViolette should go in one of the next three picks and fits Baltimore’s style. He won’t get to the Orioles’ next pick, but they may be able to float targets down there with their extra pool muscle, as covered in the previous mock.
Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona
Rank: 14
Summerhill has a very unclear and wide range of teams that are interested but could fit here. Daniel Pierce, Houston, Bodine and Coy James are all in the mix for this pick.
Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
Rank: 15
I think LaViolette, Neyens, Southisene and Aloy are all in the mix here, along with possible underslot deals for Davalan or de Brun.
Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
Rank: 16
It now looks like Bremner won’t get here, but the Braves have been tied to Wood for about a month. Otherwise, the hit-first shortstops like Houston and Pierce are tied here.
Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA)
Rank: 19
Hammond seems to be the target, but he doesn’t make it to K.C. in this edition. I think the Royals will take a prep pitcher with one of their high picks, likely either Watson or Fisher, and maybe another later on Day 1. Eyanson and Wood are two college arms being considered.
Coy James, SS, Davie County HS (NC)
Rank: 69
James has a good shot at being a Tiger, and some of Detroit’s primary options go right ahead of this spot in this scenario, so I think this could be a curveball pick to most viewers.
Fauske is another possibility here, along with Kruz Schoolcraft, Pierce, Watson, Dax Kilby (more at their next pick), de Brun (same), Southisene and Fischer.
Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU
Rank: 45
There’s lots of late momentum for Eyanson here, which is counter to the history of A.J. Preller’s time making picks for the Padres, so I’m going out on a limb.
Kilby on a cut, Young, Schoolcraft, Alec Blair, Josh Owens and de Brun all seem like high schoolers in the mix here.
Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
Rank: 23
Philly normally takes high-ceiling high school players, but this is too good of a value to pass up. Matthew Fisher, Sean Gamble and Blair are the leading prep targets, and Fischer is also mentioned.
Tate Southisene, SS, Basic HS (NV)
Rank: 37
Kane Kepley on a big cut, Devin Taylor on a smaller one, Kilby and Watson are all options here.
Note: No. 27 is the final pick of the first round of the 2025 MLB draft. You can read mock draft 3.0 for my thinking and potential targets for teams making the comp and second-round picks that follow and see the full draft order here.
28. Kansas City Royals: Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian HS (FL)
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (OR)
30. Baltimore Orioles: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA)
31. Baltimore Orioles: Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee
32. Milwaukee Brewers: Charles Davalan, LF, Arkansas
33. Boston Red Sox: Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee
34. Detroit Tigers: Jaden Fauske, RF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL)
35. Seattle Mariners: Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas
36. Minnesota Twins: Devin Taylor, LF, Indiana
37. Baltimore Orioles: Jordan Yost, SS, Sickles HS (FL)
38. New York Mets: Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville
39. New York Yankees: Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan HS (GA)
40: Los Angeles Dodgers: Quentin Young, 3B, Oaks Christian HS (CA)
41. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR)
42. Tampa Bay Rays: Sean Gamble, 2B, IMG Academy HS (FL)
43. Miami Marlins: Alec Blair, CF, De La Salle HS (CA)
44. Chicago White Sox: Ethan Conrad, RF, Wake Forest
45. Colorado Rockies: Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson
46. Miami Marlins: Josh Owens, SS, Providence Academy HS (TN)
47. Los Angeles Angels: J.D. Thompson, LHP, Vanderbilt
48. Athletics: J.B. Middleton, RHP, Southern Miss
49. Washington Nationals: Max Belyeu, RF, Texas
50. Pittsburgh Pirates: Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina
51. Cincinnati Reds: Taitn Gray, C, Grimes Community HS (IA)
52. Texas Rangers: Michael Oliveto, C, Hauppauge HS (NY)
53. Tampa Bay Rays: Dean Moss, CF, IMG Academy HS (FL)
54. Minnesota Twins: Josiah Hartshorn, LF, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)
55. St. Louis Cardinals: Cooper Flemming, SS, Aliso Niguel HS (CA)
56. Chicago Cubs: Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State
57. Seattle Mariners: Malachi Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
58. Baltimore Orioles: Mason Neville, CF, Oregon
59. Milwaukee Brewers: Mitch Voit, 2B, Michigan
60. Atlanta Braves: Kane Kepley, CF, North Carolina
61. Kansas City Royals: Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama
62. Detroit Tigers: Dean Curley, 3B, Tennessee
63. Philadelphia Phillies: Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (IN)
64. Cleveland Guardians: A.J. Russell, RHP, Tennessee
65. Los Angeles Dodgers: Chase Shores, RHP, LSU
66. Cleveland Guardians: Cade Obermueller, LHP, Iowa
67. Tampa Bay Rays: Briggs McKenzie, LHP, Corinth Holders HS (NC)
68. Milwaukee Brewers: Daniel Dickinson, 2B, LSU
69. Baltimore Orioles: Brandon Compton, LF, Arizona State
70. Cleveland Guardians: Aiden Stillman, LHP, Trinity Prep HS (FL)
71. Kansas City Royals: Angel Cervantes, RHP, Warren HS (CA)
72. St. Louis Cardinals: Joseph Dzierwa, LHP, Michigan State
73. Pittsburgh Pirates: Ethan Petry, 1B, South Carolina
74. Colorado Rockies: Easton Carmichael, C, Oklahoma
75. Boston Red Sox: Jake Cook, CF, Southern Miss
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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