
Fantasy baseball: Trends, insights to watch down the stretch
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Published
2 years agoon
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Tristan H. Cockcroft
Aug 16, 2023, 03:00 PM ET
It’s a critical time for fantasy managers, and not merely because there are only 46 days, or just under seven weeks, of baseball remaining in which for them to mount a comeback in their league standings.
The trade deadline arrives in ESPN leagues in two days, set for Friday at noon ET, and certainly is just around the corner for the majority of formats that either use our League Manager game or play offsite. Contenders need to quickly make their trades to strengthen their rosters for the stretch run, while rebuilders are running out of time to pare off their nonessential parts for future talent. Both, too, need to evaluate the talent they have on hand, whether to determine whether players have any remaining value for this season, or where they might stand entering 2024.
In any of those scenarios, forecasting ahead is critical, but especially so for those evaluating trades. What can we expect to see down baseball’s stretch run? Here are some of the things that most pique my interest:
Ryan Helsley will have a scheduled Wednesday minor league rehabilitation skipped, after he experienced renewed soreness in his forearm. His recovery was not only important in the St. Louis Cardinals’ chase for rest-of-2023 saves — the team is a middle-of-the-pack 7-6 since the trade deadline with a near-even run differential, signaling a bullpen that might not be completely devoid of save chances — but also for the team’s 2024 plans. Helsley was sometimes rumored a trade candidate when the Cardinals’ playoff hopes faded, and he’s eligible for arbitration after the season. Will he be back? It might not matter much for fantasy purposes, unless he can return before year’s end and maintain his pre-injury elite fastball velocity.
Mookie Betts needs four more games at shortstop to qualify there for 2024, and while he hasn’t appeared there since July 6, three days before Chris Taylor’s return from the injured list and 20 days before Amed Rosario’s acquisition from the Cleveland Guardians, he’d be a rare outfield-second base-shortstop triple qualifier if he gets to 20 defensive games played at the latter. Betts’ 5.8 Wins Above Replacement would match Ben Zobrist’s 2012 number for a season in which the player appeared in at least 20 defensive games in the outfield and at both second base and shortstop, assuming Betts reaches that shortstop threshold. In the rotisserie era (since 1980), only six players have managed a 2 WAR season while meeting those position qualification thresholds: Randy Velarde (1995), Zobrist (2012-14), Marwin Gonzalez (2017-18), Enrique Hernandez (2018), David Fletcher (2019) and Taylor (2021). Currently the fifth-best scorer (423 fantasy points) and ninth-best on the Player Rater, Betts would be quite the attractive 2024 first-round pick with triple eligibility. Unfortunately, I suspect that he is not quite going to get there, unless Rosario and/or Taylor gets hurt.
Speaking of position eligibility, Bryce Harper is eight games away from qualifying at first base for 2024, though he has played 12 of his past 23 games there, giving him an excellent chance of gaining it. I’d also anticipate him to return to right field for 2024, meaning he could be a dual-eligible player by mid-April.
Can Corbin Carroll become only the second 25-homer, 40-steal rookie in baseball history, joining Mike Trout? Carroll hasn’t been anywhere near the same hitter since the shoulder injury he battled just before the All-Star break, batting only .221/.315/.386 with four home runs and 12 stolen bases in his past 36 games. How he finishes this season will have a major say in his 2024 draft ranking, which was trending as a top-three overall pick for rotisserie leagues a few short weeks ago. Carroll, who ranks lower in fantasy points (336, tied for 21st) than on the Player Rater (eighth), could be too richly priced as a first-rounder in the former format if his finish is sluggish.
Speaking of recent funks, Elly De La Cruz has batted just .197/.254/.393 with a 40.5% strikeout rate and only two stolen bases in five attempts in 28 games since the All-Star break, after hitting .325/.363/.524 with a 28.9% K rate and 16 steals in 18 chances in 30 games before it. De La Cruz, a bit of a free swinger who does miss a good share, should’ve always been expected to hit an adjustment period, but it’d be a huge help for his 2024 ranking if he can show signs of shaking it in September. I think he’ll deliver those hints, and it’s not outrageous to call him a top-25 overall rotisserie and top-50 overall points-league pick for next year.
What is Esteury Ruiz for fantasy purposes? On Tuesday, he stole his 47th base, gaining one on major league leader Ronald Acuna Jr., putting Ruiz on a prorated-for-injury 67 steal pace, compared to 75 for Acuna. Unfortunately, the remainder of Ruiz’s offensive game is precisely that — offensive – as he’s dead last in baseball in average exit velocity (82.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (19.7%) and seventh-worst in Barrel rate (1.7% of his batted balls). Ruiz both walked and got more lift on the ball in the minors, and he’d need to show some of that to be anything more than a one-category rotisserie pick with minimal points-league value.
Max Fried has two solid starts and one so-so since his return from a forearm injury, and how he finishes the year will determine whether he’s again deserving of a top-20 fantasy starting pitcher ranking entering 2024. His fastball velocity and slider seem fine, so I’m leaning towards the optimist’s side.
Chicken parm seemed to cure all that ailed Anthony Volpe, right? Not necessarily, as he’s a .247/.332/.447 hitter with seven home runs in 53 games since that meal — which, much more importantly, spawned a needed tweak to his batting stance — which are hardly breakthrough-caliber numbers. Volpe has improved his chase rate by 6%, swinging-strike rate by 4% and his strikeout rate by 7% since the All-Star break compared to before it, all of which is great, but I need to see more before buying in on him being a 2024 fantasy superstar. He’ll probably be regarded a top-100 overall pick next spring, but his next seven weeks rank among the most important in the game as far as evaluating whether he’s deserving — I predict he ultimately will be.
Things were looking so good for Cristian Javier as June dawned, but he has a 6.66 ERA in his past 11 starts. There’s a wide range of outcomes for how he might finish this season, ranging from recapturing his sleeper Cy Young form to not even being a factor in the Houston Astros’ postseason rotation. I still like the guy’s stuff, but he needs a September turnaround in a bad way.
Bobby Witt Jr. is on a .349/.384/.671 tear with 11 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 14 attempts in 37 games since the beginning of July, with the most significant changes being his reduction in miss (2.5% better compared to his April-June) and strikeout rates (near-4% better). Witt is making a serious push toward first-round draft status, if he can maintain this level of improvement, and his Statcast expected .306 batting average and .402 wOBA during his hot streak suggests he can.
Can the San Francisco Giants steer their way into the National League playoffs with effectively two starting pitchers? Consider this: The Giants have extracted 21 combined starts from “openers” Scott Alexander, John Brebbia and Ryan Walker alone this season, and merely their appearances exceed the amount of openers used by any other team. The Giants also have a major league-leading 46 relief appearances of three-plus innings, from which those “bulk relievers” are a combined 8-11 with three saves, a 3.43 ERA and an average of 7.9 fantasy points in those outings. The major league average for a starting pitcher, to compare, is 8.5, which underscores how ordinary these Giants’ contributions for fantasy purposes. Only Logan Webb (sixth in fantasy points, 13th on the Player Rater), Camilo Doval (14th and 7th), Alex Cobb (79th in fantasy points) and Tyler Rogers (35th on the Player Rater) place among the top 100 pitchers in either scoring format. Sure, what the Giants are doing with their pitching is great for them, but it’s a headache for fantasy managers. The last thing we need is for them to make the playoffs like this, and other teams to adopt the template.
Randy Arozarena was coasting to his third consecutive 20/20 campaign, but he has chased non-strikes nearly 10% more often since the All-Star break than before it. He needs to reverse that if he’s going to maintain his status as a top-40 rotisserie and top-75 points-league pick for 2024.
With the Tampa Bay Rays now sporting four members of their 2023 projected Opening Day rotation on the injured list, three having succumbed to Tommy John surgery and the fourth having an internal brace repair as a method of avoiding a full UCL replacement, Taj Bradley should play a big role for the team down the stretch. Bradley hasn’t pitched that effectively this season (5.67 big-league and 9.13 Triple-A ERAs), but he has a 30% strikeout rate through his first 16 big-league starts and was widely regarded a top-15 pitching prospect entering the year. He’s one of the rookies I’m most closely watching in the hopes of a strong finish, in order to set himself up for a breakthrough 2024, and that he has totaled 35 fewer innings this year than last suggests that there shouldn’t be any workload cap in his immediate future.
Sticking with youngsters to evaluate, what is Ezequiel Duran, exactly? Sure, his plate approach leaves a lot to be desired, explaining how he’s a mere .216/.282/.324 hitter with a 31.2% strikeout rate in 33 games since the beginning of July. Duran’s long-term defensive position is the real question, but he’s going to need to straighten things out at the plate in these next seven weeks (and playoffs) to claim a firm 2024 role and be an intriguing fantasy breakout candidate.
CJ Abrams has made huge strides of late in relative obscurity with the last-place Washington Nationals, and maintaining them could set him up for a sneaky-good-for-rotisserie 2024. Since the beginning of July, Abrams has improved his chase rate by nearly 8%, his miss rate on swings by nearly 6% and has lowered his ground-ball rate by nearly 10% compared to the three months that preceded it, and he’s a .298 hitter with 21 stolen bases in 38 games during that time. He’s finally turning into the hitter that fantasy managers hoped he might be when he made the San Diego Padres’ 2022 Opening Day roster as a Fernando Tatis Jr. fill-in.
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Umpire hit in face by line drive at Mets-Twins
Published
38 mins agoon
April 16, 2025By
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Associated Press
Apr 16, 2025, 03:47 PM ET
MINNEAPOLIS — Veteran umpire Hunter Wendelstedt had to leave the game in Minnesota on Wednesday after he was struck in the face behind first base by a line drive foul ball.
Wendelstedt instantly hit the ground after he took a direct hit from the line smash off the bat of New York Mets center fielder Tyrone Taylor in the seventh inning. Both Taylor and Twins right-hander Louis Varland winced immediately after seeing where the ball hit Wendelstedt, who is in his 28th major league season as an umpire.
The 53-year-old Wendelstedt was down for a minute while being tended to by Twins medical staff and was able to slowly walk off on his own, pressing a towel against the left side of his head. Second base umpire Adam Hamari moved to first on the three-man crew for the remainder of the game.
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Braves’ Strider goes 5 in return; Blue Jays fan 19
Published
38 mins agoon
April 16, 2025By
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Associated Press
Apr 16, 2025, 03:34 PM ET
TORONTO — Atlanta Braves right-hander Spencer Strider allowed two runs and five hits in five-plus innings in his return to the mound against the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday afternoon.
Making his first big league appearance in 376 days because of surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, Strider struck out five, walked one and hit a batter in the 3-1 loss. He threw 97 pitches, 58 for strikes.
Blue Jays right-hander Chris Bassitt (2-0) struck out a season-high 10 and allowed three hits — all singles — as Toronto set a single-game, nine-inning record with 19 strikeouts. Bassitt lowered his ERA to 0.77 through four starts.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had two of the five hits off Strider, including an RBI single in the third inning and a solo home run into the second deck on a full-count slider in the sixth. The homer — a 412-foot drive — was Guerrero’s first of the season.
Strider followed that by walking Anthony Santander, and Braves manager Brian Snitker immediately replaced Strider with left-hander Dylan Lee.
Strider struck out Bo Bichette on three pitches to begin the game. His hardest pitch was a 98 mph fastball to Guerrero in the first.
Strider struck out Myles Straw to strand runners at second and third to end the second.
The Braves activated Strider off the injured list Wednesday morning and optioned right-handed reliever Zach Thompson to Triple-A.
Strider struck out 13 in 5⅓ innings in a dominant rehab start at Triple-A last Thursday, allowing one run and three hits. He threw 90 pitches, 62 for strikes and reached 97 mph with his fastball.
The Braves are off to a slow start, and the return of Strider could provide a big lift. He went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 2023, finishing with a major league-best 281 strikeouts in 186⅔ innings and placing fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting.
Strider, 26, last appeared in the majors on April 5, 2024, against the Diamondbacks in Atlanta. He made two starts last season before undergoing surgery.
Sports
The complicated life of a modern ace: How Paul Skenes has navigated it all by looking inward
Published
50 mins agoon
April 16, 2025By
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THE WORLD IS loud and fast and demanding, and to combat this, Paul Skenes forages for silence. He relishes the moments where the chaos gives way to blissful nothingness, just him and dead air. Right now, they are fewer and farther between than they’ve ever been in the past decade — a decade spent working toward this moment, when he is arguably the best pitcher in the world and inarguably the most internet-famous, which is the sort of thing that tends to put a damper on his quest for quiet.
“You can’t master the noise until you master the silence,” Skenes says. A coach told him that this offseason, and it spoke to Skenes, whose mastery of his first season in Major League Baseball — and a two-month stretch in which he went from top prospect to All-Star Game starting pitcher — set him on a path that only upped his daily dose of cacophony. He had been enjoying partaking in sound-free workouts, a far cry from the weightlifting sessions in Pittsburgh’s weight room — a petri dish of decibels and testosterone, suffused with grunts and clanks, ringed with TVs whose visual clamor complements the music thumping out of speakers, a lizard-brained heavenscape.
As fast as Skenes throws a baseball — last summer, it was a half-mile per hour faster than any starter in the game’s century-and-a-half-long history — he thinks slowly, methodically. There are things he wants to do — real, substantive things. He seeks silence because in it he finds clarity. About how to extract the very best from his gilded right arm — but also about who he is and who he aspires to be.
“The times that I’ll figure stuff out is when I’m just sitting and not doing anything,” Skenes says. “I’ll figure some stuff out, on the mound or talking to people, but there will be times where I’m just sitting or lying in bed or something like that. Silence. And there’s nothing else to do but think. I wonder — and I’m not comparing myself to him by any stretch — but Newton discovered gravity because he was sitting under a tree and an apple fell. You figure stuff out because you’re sitting in silence. Compartmentalizing stuff, thinking about the game, doing a debrief of myself. That’s how I’ll get pitch grips. Just sitting around and imagining the feel of the baseball and like, oh, I’m going to try that. It works or it doesn’t work. If you do that enough, you’re going to figure stuff out.”
The irony of this exercise is that the more Skenes figures out on the mound, the shriller his world will get. As Skenes embarks on his first full season in MLB, he’s learning what comes with the commodification of an athlete. Alongside the demand for peak performance come requests for his time and his autograph, pictures taken by gawking fans and GQ photographers. He is pitcher and pitchman. His teammates sometimes wonder whether it’s too much too soon — when they’re not needling him for it.
“You guys doing an interview about our savior?” one said this spring as a reporter queried two others about Skenes. They were, in fact, though the 22-year-old Skenes is far more than just the player Pittsburgh is praying can liberate its woebegone baseball franchise from the dregs of the sport. He is a generational pitcher for a generation that doesn’t pitch like all the previous ones — but he is also still just a kid trying to navigate his way through a universe not built for him. He is happy to forgo the convenience of an apartment adjacent to the stadium for a soundless drive to the suburbs that feels almost meditative. He can ponder the questions he would like to answer — not the ones proffered by others. For instance: In this life so antithetical to the one he thought he would be living, who, exactly, is he?
“It’s funny,” Skenes says. “When you start thinking about stuff like this, you find that you don’t know a whole lot more than you thought while also learning about yourself. I know myself a lot better — and, in some ways, a lot less.”
IN JANUARY 2023 — six months after he’d left the only place he ever wanted to go, seven months before he started a career he never imagined he’d have — Skenes was chatting with LSU baseball coach Wes Johnson about the year ahead. The previous summer, he had transferred to the SEC power from the Air Force Academy, where he had played catcher and pitched. For all of Skenes’ power as a hitter, Johnson wasn’t interested in developing another Shohei Ohtani. This was big-time college baseball, and after a fall semester that for Skenes consisted of online courses and eight or nine hours a day of training for baseball, Johnson, the former pitching coach for the Minnesota Twins, understood before most the implications of Skenes’ move.
“For the next two to three years, you will have a new normal every single day,” Johnson said.
Growing up, there were no conversations about the pressures of major league stardom in Skenes’ household. His father, Craig, was a biochemistry major who works in the eye medication industry and topped out in JV baseball. His mother, Karen, teaches AP chemistry and was in the marching band. Skenes was not allowed to touch a baseball after school until he finished his homework.
“It was never the big leagues really,” Skenes says. “It was ‘Be a good person, do your homework, go to church’ and all that. There’s nothing in my family that says that, yeah, this guy was born to be a big leaguer.”
Skenes’ parents told him to find what he loved and work really hard at it, which had led him to the Air Force. Skenes found comfort in the academy’s structure and rigor; the academy embodied his values of discipline and routine and responsibility. Skenes wanted to fly fighter jets and took deep pride in being an airman. That’s why Skenes cried when he decided, at the behest of his coaches, to leave for LSU after his sophomore year: He’d found what he’d loved and worked really hard at it and gotten it, only for something else to find him and cajole him away.
A big SEC school didn’t feel like Skenes’ speed — not the random public approaches, not the fanfare, not the Geaux Tigers of it all — but he understood why he needed to be there. He is a nerd who happened to stand 6-foot-6, weigh 260 pounds and throw a baseball with more skill than anyone in the country, and to turtle from that would be wasteful. The Air Force years had prepared him for the transition, and he ingratiated himself in Baton Rouge with a Sahara-dry sense of humor. Skenes would regularly walk around the clubhouse, stop at each teammate’s locker and rib him: “I worked harder than you today.” It was in jest, but it was also the truth, and when teammate Cade Beloso recounted the practice to ESPN’s broadcast team during LSU’s run to a College World Series title in 2023, Skenes recalls, “I’m like, dude, everybody thinks I’m a douche now. So there is still some of that. I still am that way, just not with everybody.”
He grappled with his identity at LSU, a California kid dropped into the bayou and forced to find his way. Meeting Livvy Dunne only compounded his need to adapt. An LSU gymnast with an innate talent for making social media content that bewitched Gen Z, Dunne was introduced to Skenes by mutual friends and she was immediately smitten. If LSU raised a magnifying glass over Skenes’ life and career — he’d gone from a fringe first-round pick to the top of draft boards on the strength of a junior season in which he struck out 209 in 122⅔ innings — Dunne brought the Hubble telescope. He didn’t even have Instagram or TikTok on his phone.
“I’m not perfect by any means, but I think that you can get yourself in trouble really quickly now because if you do anything, someone’s filming it,” Skenes says. “It takes a whole lot more energy to go out anywhere and pretend to be someone else than it does to go out and just be yourself. If being yourself doesn’t get you in trouble, then great. So that’s kind of the life that I think I was geared to live just based on the whole path coming up.
“I don’t think anything’s really changed. When I look at famous people or celebrities, I see a lot of the time people that do whatever they can because they think they can do whatever they can. Why is that? We’re all people. What has gotten you there? What has gotten you to being famous, to being a movie star? Whatever it is, you’re very good at what you do. So why change? I respect the people that don’t change a whole lot more than the other people that are, ‘Hey, I’m a celebrity.'”
Going with the first overall pick tested his willingness to stand by that ethos. Every pitch he threw invited more eyeballs, his rapid ascent to Pittsburgh an inevitability. The Pirates are a proud franchise hamstrung by an owner, Bob Nutting, fundamentally opposed to using his wealth to bridge the game’s inherent inequity. Skenes was their golden ticket, the best pitching prospect in more than a decade, and the excitement for his arrival at LSU paled compared to what greeted him May 11, when the Pirates summoned him to the big leagues. He was Pittsburgh’s, yes, but everyone in the baseball ecosystem wanted a piece of Skenes.
Over the next two months and 11 starts, he so thoroughly dominated hitters that he earned the start for the National League in the All-Star Game. His only inning included showdowns with Juan Soto (a seven-pitch walk that ended on a 100 mph fastball painted on the inside corner but not called a strike) and Aaron Judge (a first-pitch groundout on a 99 mph challenge fastball). He rushed home to spend the rest of the break with Dunne and settle back into a life he was learning to enjoy.
Skenes’ first season could not have gone much better. He threw 133 innings, struck out more than five hitters for every one he walked and posted a 1.96 ERA. The last rookie to start at least 20 games with a sub-2.00 ERA was Scott Perry in 1918, the tail end of the dead ball era. When Hall of Famer Cal Ripken Jr. announced Skenes as NL Rookie of the Year winner, Dunne broke into a wide smile and rejoiced as Skenes sat stone-faced before mustering a toothless grin. Memelords pounced instantaneously and Skenes was immortalized as the picture of utter disinterest.
Which is fine by him. He was proud, but pride can manifest itself in manifold ways, and if LSU and his first big league season taught Skenes anything, it’s that he is not beholden to external whims and expectations. He’s going to figure out who he is his way. And that starts with seeking out the people whose opinions do matter to him.
IN THE FIRST inning of a July game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Skenes left the Pirates’ dugout and beelined into the bowels of Chase Field. Randy Johnson had just been inducted as an inaugural member of the Diamondbacks Hall of Fame, and Skenes was not going to miss the opportunity to shake his hand and pick his brain.
For someone as polished and proficient as Skenes, he remains fundamentally curious. However exceptional his aptitude to pitch might be, he’s still enough of a neophyte that he’s got oodles to absorb, and he’s humble enough to know what he doesn’t know. Skenes is not shy about trying to learn, and over the past year he has sought advice from a wide array of players whose careers he would love to emulate.
Johnson’s would have ended 20 years earlier than his 2009 retirement had he not done the same. Like Skenes, he was an otherworldly talent. Unlike Skenes, he needed almost a decade to tame it. Johnson didn’t find success until Hall of Famers Nolan Ryan and Steve Carlton, as well as pitching guru Tom House, advised him. So he was glad to talk with Skenes and try to offer a sliver of the assistance he’d been afforded. First, though, he had a question.
“It all depends on what you’re looking for,” Johnson said. “Are you looking for a good game, a good season or a good career?”
Skenes’ answer was a no-brainer: a good career. The no-selling of his Rookie of the Year win is a perfect example. It’s an award. It’s nice. It’s also the reflection of a single great season among the many more he anticipates having. For Skenes, the goal is game-to-game excellence and longevity, the hallmarks of true greatness. Johnson fears that the modern usage of starting pitchers inhibits players’ ability to marry the two.
Over the past 25 years, the number of 100-plus-pitch games in MLB has dipped from 2,391 to 635 last season. There were 1,297 starts of 110 or more pitches in 2000 and 33 last year. Skenes — and Johnson — believe some of today’s starting pitchers are capable of more. For a pitcher like Skenes to be limited by strictures based more in fear of injury than data that supports their implementation gnaws at Johnson, who regularly ran up high pitch counts before retiring at 46.
The second a career begins, Johnson told Skenes, it is marching toward its end, and the truly special players use the time in between to defy expectations and limitations. If Skenes is as good as everyone believes — “He’s where I’m at six or seven years after I found my mechanics,” Johnson says — then he will either convince the Pirates to remove the restrictor plate or eventually find a team that will. Which is why Johnson’s ultimate advice to him was simple: “This is your career.”
“It will be a mental mission for him,” Johnson says. “I understood throughout the course of my career that if I can talk myself through a game, I will realize my mission. I trained myself to put me in those positions for success, get me through that. I know the pitchers can do these things I talk about, but they’re not allowed to. And that, to me, is mind-boggling. It makes no sense to me. You’re not going to see a pitcher grow mentally or physically if you take him out of situations.”
Longevity was on the mind of another subject from whom Skenes sought advice. When the Pirates went to New York last year, Skenes met with Gerrit Cole in the outfield at Yankee Stadium. Cole is perhaps the best modern analog for Skenes: born and raised in Southern California, big-bodied hard thrower. Both went to college and then were drafted No. 1 by the Pirates; both are thoughtful, diligent, dedicated. Amid the de-emphasis of starting pitching, Cole blossomed into the exception, a head-of-the-rotation stalwart on a Hall of Fame track who made at least 30 starts in seven seasons before undergoing season-ending elbow surgery this spring.
Unlike Johnson, who is now 61, Cole speaks the language of a modern pitcher. He is fluent in Trackman data, the benefit of good sleep habits and the influence diet can have on success.
“In the true pursuit of maximum human performance, these tools are providing an avenue for people to achieve that quicker,” Cole said earlier this month. “With the avenue out there to reach those maximum potentials quicker, the industry demands — the teams demand — almost a higher level of performance and, to a certain extent, an unsustainable level of performance. We’ve used the technology to maximize human performance. We haven’t used the technology quite well enough to maximize human sustainability.”
Cole is acutely aware of this. After more than 2,000 innings and 339 career starts, his right elbow blew out during spring training and will sideline him for the remainder of 2025. The correlation between fastball velocity and higher risk of arm injuries is established to the point that most in the industry regard it as causative. Johnson was the exception, not the rule, and Skenes knows enough math to know the fool’s errand of banking on outlier outcomes.
“My focus is on volume and durability,” Cole continued. “In order to give myself a chance to pitch for a long time to pitch for championship-contending teams, I have to be healthy. There’s a lot of incentives — as a competitor, financial — to make durability and sustainability the main goal.
“Skenes has the foundation to match that — and exceed it. He’s got more horsepower than me. He’s asking better questions early — questions about diet and sleep. He’s asking questions about mechanics. He’s tracking his throws. He has his own process with people that he surrounds himself with that are not only looking out for his performance right now but his performance long term. That’s important for guys to have advocates in their corner, not looking out just for this year. It’s really tough to find the right people.”
With Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer on the precipice of retirement, and Cole and Zack Wheeler in their mid-30s, a baton-passing is afoot. Because Skenes is best positioned to be the one grabbing it, Cole says, his advice runs the gamut. They spoke about pitching game theory, and Cole pointed out that the approach of Verlander, with whom he was teammates in Houston, runs counter to the max-effort philosophies espoused by starters who know that regardless of their ability to go deep into games, they’re not throwing much more than 100 pitches anyway.
Piece by piece, Skenes learns from those who have been what he intends to be. Pitchers, old and young, fill in some blanks, but he looks beyond the players who share his craft, too. He plans to spend more time talking with Corbin Carroll, the Diamondbacks’ star outfielder he met on a Zoom call for a rookie immersion program, and ask him: “What do you have that I need?” He reads books like “Relentless” and “Winning” by Michael Jordan’s longtime trainer, Tim Grover, and “Talent Is Overrated,” which has particular appeal for someone whose talent didn’t manage to attract draft interest from a single team out of high school despite playing in arguably the most talent-rich area in America.
“I don’t know if I’m going to get anything out of talking to anybody,” Skenes says, but at the same time he sees no harm in asking. Considering how much the game asks him to give, he’s owed a rebalancing.
THE FIRST TIME Toronto Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt met Skenes, he introduced himself with a proposition: “I’m gonna nominate you for the union board.”
The executive subcommittee of the Major League Baseball Players Association consists of eight players who help guide the union, particularly during collective bargaining. And with the current basic agreement set to expire following the 2026 season, labor discord has left people across the sport fearful of an extended work stoppage. The board is expected to wield even more power in the next round of negotiations, so the eight members are paramount in helping shape the game’s future.
Bassitt knew Skenes by reputation: that he was thoughtful, even-tempered, judicious — the kind of guy whose poker face on the mound would translate to a board room. He knows, too, the history of the union, that it’s at its strongest when the game’s most influential players serve as voices during the bargaining process. With the encouragement of veteran starter Nick Pivetta and former executive board head Andrew Miller, Skenes accepted his nomination and became the youngest player ever selected to the executive subcommittee.
“If we’re thinking about the future of the game,” Skenes says, “I think it’d be stupid to not have someone at least my age in there.”
Labor work is taxing. The game’s best players today often avoid the hassle. It did not have to be Skenes. But he harkened back to his years at the Air Force Academy in which cadets are taught the PITO model of leadership: personal, interpersonal, team and organization. In their first year, they focus on personal responsibility. Year 2 calls for them to take responsibility for another cadet. Skenes left before experiencing of team and organizational leadership at the academy, but the principles he learned apply enough that he felt a duty to serve as a voice for more than 1,200 other big leaguers, even if his service time pales compared to many of theirs.
The union and its rank and file are far from the only ones in the baseball world leaning on Skenes. MLB has struggled for years to create stars, and Skenes entered the big leagues with a Q score higher than 99% of players. Dunne’s presence alone invites a younger generation reared on the idea that baseball is boring to reconsider. Going forward, every marketing campaign MLB launches is almost guaranteed to include four players. One plays in Los Angeles (Ohtani). Two are in New York (Judge and Soto). The fourth resides in Pittsburgh.
More than anyone, the Pirates and their forlorn fan base regard Skenes as the fulcrum of their rebirth. They last won a division championship in 1992, when Barry Bonds still wore black and yellow. Their most recent playoff appearance was 2015, the last of three consecutive seasons with a wild-card spot (and losing the single game) when Cole was pitching for the franchise. Since then, they’ve finished fourth or fifth in the National League Central the past eight years and currently occupy the basement.
Nutting’s frugality hamstrings the Pirates perpetually. Never have they carried a nine-figure payroll. (This year’s on Opening Day: $91.3 million.) Since he bought the team in 2007, it has been in the bottom five 14 of 18 seasons. The Pirates’ revenue, according to Forbes, is almost identical to that of the Arizona Diamondbacks (2025 Opening Day payroll: $188.5 million), Minnesota Twins ($147.4 million), Kansas City Royals ($131.6 million), Washington Nationals ($115.6 million) and Cincinnati Reds ($114.5 million). Other owners privately peg Nutting as among the game’s worst.
Which only reinforces the fear among Pirates fans that Skenes is bound to follow Cole out the door via trade within a few years of his debut, lest the team lose him following the 2029 season to free agency. Rooting for the Pirates is among the cruelest fates in sports, with the combination of unserious owner and revenue disparities leaving general manager Ben Cherington to crank up a player-development machine in hopes of competing. Their free agent signings this winter were longtime Pirate Andrew McCutchen, left-hander Andrew Heaney, outfielder Tommy Pham, second baseman Adam Frazier and left-handed relievers Caleb Ferguson and Tim Mayza, all on one-year deals totaling $19.95 million. The last multiyear free agent contract Nutting handed out was to Ivan Nova in 2016.
“We’re going to create it from within the locker room, and it’s not going to be an ownership thing,” Skenes says. “Having a group of fans that are putting some pressure on the ownership and Ben and all that — it’s not a bad thing, but we have to go out there and do it. I kind of feel like we owe it to the city.”
Skenes had never been to Pittsburgh before he was drafted. “I do love it,” he said, and those who know him confirm Skenes’ sincerity. He wants nothing more at this point in his career than for his roommate and close friend Jared Jones, who’s on the injured list with elbow issues, to get healthy, and for Bubba Chandler, the Triple-A right-hander who’s topping out at 102 mph, to arrive, and for the Pirates’ farm system to churn out position players as regularly as it does pitchers. A couple more bats, a few relief arms, a free agent signing that’s more than a short-term plug, and you can squint and see a contender.
So much is out of Skenes’ control, though. All he can do is be the best version of himself. And bit by bit, he’s figuring out what that looks like.
SKENES IS ALWAYS looking for new ways to occupy himself when he’s away from the mound. In the back of his truck lays a compound bow. He shot it all of four times before abandoning it. In his bedroom sits a guitar gathering dust, $200 down the drain. He’s getting into golf these days, but he’s not sure it’s going to last.
“I get bored easily,” Skenes says. “I had a coach tell me that, and I was like, ‘I don’t think so. I think you’re wrong.’ And I’ve been thinking about that lately, and I think he’s right, because I’ve tried plenty of different hobbies and none of them have stuck.”
Similarly, Skenes wonders if the places his mind goes during his periods of silence are a function of boredom with baseball. “Not in a bad way,” he clarifies, but in the manner that behooves a player — that “there’s always something to be better at.”
In his most recent start Monday — a typical Skenes outing in which he allowed one earned run, struck out six and didn’t walk anyone over six innings — he threw six pitches: four-seam fastball, splinker, slider, sweeper, changeup, and curveball and splinker, the hybrid sinker-splitter he throws in the mid-90s to devastating effect. He toyed around with a cutter and two-seam fastball during spring training and could break them out at any moment. He waited until the fourth or fifth week of his season at LSU to unleash his curveball.
“I absolutely don’t believe that just because it’s the season, all right, this is what you got,” he says. “There’s no difference between spring training and the regular season in terms of getting better every day.”
This is his career, Skenes says, echoing Johnson, and he’s learning that he must wrangle control of it. He needs to chat with others who are what he wants to be, and he needs to find the silence to find himself, and he needs to set stratospheric expectations. Of all the aphorisms Skenes repeats, his favorite might be one he read in a book: “How you do anything is how you do everything.”
“There’s no option to not do the work that I need to do,” Skenes says. “… If I didn’t want to get in the cold tub a couple years ago or whatever it is, I wouldn’t. Now I do know whether I want to do it or not, it’s a nonnegotiable.”
If he keeps doing the work, Skenes believes, everything is there for the taking. The wins will come, and the success will follow, and the search for advice will give way to the dispensing of it. In the same way his training at the Air Force Academy readied him to handle the pressure cooker at LSU, it’s likewise destined to propel him into a role as leader and elder statesman in baseball.
For now, though, Skenes is trying to focus on today, tomorrow, this week. Even if the clock on his career is ticking, the hour hand has barely moved, and he doesn’t want this charmed life to fly by without taking the time to appreciate it. Earlier this spring, Pirates pitching coach Oscar Marin asked Skenes: “What motivates you?”
Skenes considered the question and gave variations on the same answer: winning and getting better every day. Winning a baseball game is in his hands once every fifth day. But those are not the only wins within his control. Hard work is a win. Learning is a win. Leading is a win. Growing is a win. And in a life that’s only getting louder and faster and more demanding, silence is the sort of win that will help remind him who he is.
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