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Gasoline prices for full serve and self serve are displayed at the Union 76 gas station ahead of the Labor Day weekend on August 28, 2023 in Beverly Hills, California.

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This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

Biggest monthly jump this year
The
U.S. consumer price index for August rose 3.7% from a year ago and a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, mostly in line with the expected 3.6% and 0.6%, respectively. Though expected, it’s still the biggest month-on-month increase in prices this year. Energy prices, which soared on the month, were mostly to blame. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, was up 4.3% on the year and 0.3% on the month.

Optimistic markets
U.S. markets were mixed Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average the only major index to fall. Asia-Pacific stocks mostly rose Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.47% even as shares of Softbank slipped slightly. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added around 0.55% as data showed unemployment rate in the country holding steady at 3.7% in August.

The risks of shadow banks in China
The difficulties faced by China’s real estate sector recently have highlighted, once again, the risks of shadow banking — a term that refers to financial services offered outside the highly regulated banking system. Chinese developers “were able to borrow liberally from shadow banks,” a researcher said, which pushed up land prices and housing costs. That contributed to the developers’ huge debt today.

Taiwan is ‘not for sale’
At the All-In Summit, a conference on technology and markets, Elon Musk commented that China probably views Taiwan as “analogous to Hawaii or something like that, like an integral part of China that is arbitrarily not part of China.” It drew a swift rebuke from Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which said Taiwan is “not part of the PRC and certainly not for sale!”

[PRO] An Arm and a leg
Arm is pricing its initial public offering at $51 per share, the top of its expected price range. That values the company at over $54 billion, giving it a price-to-earnings multiple of about 104. It’s a lofty multiple, comparable to Nvidia’s 110 for the previous 12 months. Read what four analysts have to say about the risks and benefits of buying Arm shares.

The bottom line

At first glance, August’s CPI report seems bad news. The month-over-month jump in prices is the highest in a year. And even core inflation came in hotter than expected. But look more closely and you’ll find things aren’t as terrifying as they seem.

The headline number was pushed up by rising oil prices, which have been steadily increasing in recent weeks, as we’ve talked about. Gasoline prices soared 10.6% in August, the largest contributor to inflation last month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But it’s likely gasoline prices will fall after a month or two, according to Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. And gasoline prices have actually retreated 3.3% from a year ago, suggesting that they’re still on a downward trend in the long run.

Excluding volatile energy prices, monthly core inflation was up 0.3% against the expected 0.2%. Here, shelter costs were the main culprit for the hotter-than-expected increase. “Housing continues to contribute an outsized share to the inflation measures,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS.

But, Sturtevant added, “rent growth has slowed considerably and median rents nationally fell year-over-year in August.” That slowdown in prices will show up in future reports, meaning that August’s core CPI numbers is just “a little bump in the road,” as Kayla Bruun, senior economist at Morning Consult, put it.

“It doesn’t mean it’s turning around and going in the other direction,” Bruun said. “Overall, most of the pieces are headed in the right direction.” Indeed, the annual measure of core CPI still dropped from 4.7% in July to 4.3% in August.

Markets took the numbers in their stride. The Dow was the only major index to fall, losing 0.2% as shares of 3M and Caterpillar sank. The S&P 500 added 0.12% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.29%, helped by gains in Tesla and Amazon. And traders are still betting the Federal Reserve won’t raise rates next week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Markets can act in irrational ways sometimes. But sometimes, the crowd psychology of markets manifests as collective wisdom.

— CNBC’s Jeff Cox and Greg Iacurci contributed to this report

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Collapsed bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox is about to unload $9 billion of coins onto the market. Here’s what it means

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Collapsed bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox is about to unload  billion of coins onto the market. Here's what it means

Omer Taha Cetin | Anadolu | Getty Images

A bitcoin exchange that collapsed 10 years ago after being hacked is set to return billions of dollars’ worth of the token to users — and it has investors worried.

In a few days, bankrupt Tokyo-based bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox will begin paying back thousands of users almost $9 billion worth of tokens. The platform went under in 2014 following a series of heists that cost it in the range of 650,000 to 950,000 bitcoin, or upward of $58 billion, at current prices.

The payout follows a protracted bankruptcy process that’s involved multiple delays and legal challenges.

On Monday, the court-appointed trustee overseeing the exchange’s bankruptcy proceedings said distributions to the firm’s roughly 20,000 creditors would begin in early July. Disbursements will be in a mix of bitcoin and bitcoin cash, an early offshoot of the original cryptocurrency.

While this is good news for victims of the hack who have spent years waiting to be made whole, the price of bitcoin slid to $59,000 last week, in the crypto market’s second-worst weekly decline of the year.

CNBC spoke to half a dozen analysts to get their take on what to expect when roughly 141,000 bitcoin — or roughly 0.7% of the total 19.7 million bitcoins outstanding — are returned to Mt. Gox victims this week.

Pressure on bitcoin could pick up

Mt. Gox — short for “Magic: The Gathering Online Exchange” — was once the largest spot bitcoin exchange globally, claiming to handle around 80% of all global dollar trades for bitcoin.

When it shuttered in February 2014, bitcoin was worth around $600.

Today, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading at about $61,000 per coin. That means users opting to be reimbursed in-kind — that is, in the cryptocurrency itself, rather than the cash equivalent — have seen the value of their coins surge over 10,000% in the last decade.

John Glover, chief investment officer of crypto lending firm Ledn, told CNBC the windfall for Mt. Gox users would likely translate to huge sales in bitcoin as investors look to lock in gains.

“Many will clearly cash out and enjoy the fact that having their assets stuck in the Mt. Gox bankruptcy was the best investment they ever made,” said Glover, who was previously a managing director at Barclays. “Some will clearly choose to take the money and run,” added Glover.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares told CNBC the overhang of the nearly $9 billion of bitcoin set to be released has “long been a concern for those with bullish views on bitcoin.”

Consequently, the market is highly sensitive to any related news. With the announcement that the Trust will begin selling in July, investors are understandably worried,” said Butterfill.

Read more about tech and crypto from CNBC Pro

It wouldn’t be the first time bitcoin’s moved in reaction to big redemptions of funds locked up in centralized trading platforms.

Last month, crypto exchange Gemini returned more than $2 billion worth of bitcoin to users with funds that had been trapped in its Earn lending program, marking a 230% recovery after bitcoin prices more than tripled since Gemini suspended Earn withdrawals on Nov. 16.

JPMorgan analysts linked this to negative price action, saying in a research note last week that it’s “fair to assume that some of Gemini creditors, which are mostly retail customers, have taken at least partial profits in recent weeks.”

Similarly, JPMorgan analysts expect Mt. Gox customers to be similarly inclined to sell some of their bitcoin to profit from seismic gains for the cryptocurrency.

“Assuming most of the liquidations by Mt. Gox creditors take place in July, [this] creates a trajectory where crypto prices come under further pressure in July, but start rebounding from August onwards,” they wrote.

Separately last month, the German government sold 5,000 — worth approximately $305.8 million as of Thursday’s prices — of a 50,000-bitcoin pile seized in connection with the movie piracy operation Movi2k.

The funds were sent to various crypto exchanges, including Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitstamp, according to blockchain intelligence firm Arkham Intelligence.

Analysts say these crypto liquidations, too, have placed pressure on bitcoin’s price.

NYSE's Martin: Can't argue with success of Bitcoin ETFs and liquidity it's brought to markets

Mt. Gox customers expected to hang on to their bitcoin

Most analysts agree losses in bitcoin are likely to be contained and short-lived.

“I think that sell-off concerns relating to Mt. Gox will likely be short-term,” said Lennix Lai, chief commercial officer of crypto exchange OKX.

“Many of Mt. Gox’s early users as well as creditors are long-term bitcoin enthusiasts who are less likely to sell all of their bitcoin immediately,” he said, adding previous sell-offs by law enforcement, including the Silk Road case, did not result in a sustained catastrophic price drop.

Butterfill suggested there’s enough market liquidity to cushion the blow of any possible mass market sell action.

“Bitcoin has maintained a daily trading volume of $8.74 billion on trusted exchanges this year, suggesting that liquidity is sufficient to absorb these sales over the summer months,” said Butterfill.

According to CCData research analyst, Jacob Joseph, the markets are more than capable of absorbing the selling pressure.

“Moreover, a healthy part of the creditors are likely to take a 10% haircut on their holdings to receive the repayment early, and not all holdings are set to be liquidated on the open market, reducing the overall selling pressure,” he said.

How Wall Street learned to love bitcoin

Recent price moves suggest the temporary impact of the Mt. Gox repayments may already be priced in, Joseph added.

Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, believes fewer coins will be distributed than people think, meaning there will be less sell pressure than the market expects.

However, he also wrote in May that, even if only 10% of the bitcoin distributed is sold, “it will have a market impact.” 

“Most of the individual creditors will have their coins deposited directly into a trading account at an exchange, making it extremely easy to sell,” Thorn said.

Vijay Ayyar, head of consumer growth for Asia-Pacific at crypto exchange Gemini, said that the overall impact of the Mt. Gox disbursement is likely to be “dissipated,” given the recipients of the funds are varied.

On the one hand, there are individual holders who will get their bitcoin straight away. Then there’s the “significant amount” of bitcoin that will be disbursed out to claims funds, Ayyar said.

“Those funds would then need to distribute these out to their LPs [limited partners], hence the whole process could take a while adding a time element to the impact on price,” he told CNBC.

Macro headwinds behind bitcoin’s fall

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Bitcoin’s U.S. dollar price performance, year-to-date.

But investors have remained anxious amid outflows from bitcoin ETFs and sizable market liquidations. The broader macro environment, too, has investors worried.

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve suggested it plans to cut rates just once this year, down from the multiple cuts it had indicated previously.

Cryptocurrencies, which are inherently volatile, are particularly sensitive to changes in the interest rate environment.

CoinShares’ Butterfill said the Fed’s new rate forecast was among “the likely culprits for the recent price decline” in bitcoin.

This, along with other issues, is “likely to weigh on prices in the lower volume summer months,” Butterfill said. However, “the fundamental investment case remains very much intact,” he added.

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McDonald’s puts 10 Volvo VNR Electric class 8 semi trucks to work

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McDonald's puts 10 Volvo VNR Electric class 8 semi trucks to work

Ten brand-new Volvo VNR Electric semi trucks will be supporting food and beverage deliveries to select McDonald’s restaurants in the greater Montreal and Toronto areas in the coming weeks.

Martin Brower is a supply chain solutions provider for global restaurant chains, and it’s actually Martin Brower, as McDonald’s logistical partner, that’s taking delivery of the ten electric Volvo semi trucks. “McDonald’s has been a like-minded collaborator for many decades with aligned goals,” said Julie Dell’Aniello, president, Martin Brower Canada. “Together, our companies share similar commitments to test alternative-fuel vehicles.”

The deployment of these 10 trucks by Martin Brower follows on from a pilot with the electric tractor in Montreal that was launched back in 2022.

“It’s exciting to see a powerhouse brand like McDonald’s working with their partners to help decarbonize the transportation of goods,” said Matthew Blackman, managing director for Canada, Volvo Trucks North America. “It’s a testament to the performance and reliability of the Volvo VNR Electric that these global leaders are choosing to scale their trial of battery-electric vehicles where feasible.”

Earlier this month, Volvo Trucks North America announced a new Truck-as-a-Service (TaaS) business model called Volvo on Demand designed, “to enable small and medium-sized truck fleets to minimize the upfront investments typically associated with transitioning to battery-electric vehicles, and free up credit lines that can be used towards business growth.”

Volvo began delivering electric trucks in 2018, and has continued to expand its commercial lineup with dedicated refuse models from both its Volvo and Mack Truck brands, as well as the new Mack MD Electric, production of which began earlier this year.

Electrek’s Take

Volvo Trucks electric

Volvo’s first-mover position in the North American market has led to a number of companies choosing to adopt its HDEVs, and the anticipated next-generation VNL Electric will only give it a bigger lead in the space.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Volvo Trucks.

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Walmart first major retailer in North America to deploy hydrogen semi truck

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Walmart first major retailer in North America to deploy hydrogen semi truck

Walmart Canada continues its march towards a 100% alternative fuel fleet with the deployment of its first hydrogen fuel cell-powered Nikola Tre.

With the deployment of this truck, Nikola says Walmart Canada has become the first major retail chain in North America to introduce a hydrogen fuel cell electric semi truck to its fleet.

“We’re proud to be introducing Walmart Canada’s first hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle as a major milestone on our journey to becoming a regenerative company,” said Gonzalo Gebara, president and CEO, Walmart Canada. “This is a first for a retailer in Canada and is an example of how we will continue to push forward, embrace new technology and spark change within the industry.”

The Nikola HFCEV is a Class 8 tractor with a range of about 800 kilometers (over 400 miles) “per tank” and an 82,000,000 GCWR that can, when compared to a conventional semi, avoid putting nearly 100 metric tons of CO2 tailpipe emissions into the air each year – which is one of the reasons electrifying the commercial truck sector is so critical.

“People might wonder why build a semi truck?” said Elon Musk, at Tesla’s Nevada gigafactory in late 2022, when the company delivered a handful of semi trucks to Pepsi. “It’s 20% of US vehicle emissions.”

Walmart isn’t waiting on Tesla

Walmart Canada and the Nikola Tre HFCEV.

Back in April, Reuters reported that retailers like Walmart and Pepsi were becoming frustrated by long waits and continued delays for Tesla’s electric semi trucks, and were turning to rival electric-truck makers as the moved to decarbonize their trucking fleets.

“Walmart Canada has an ambitious plan to power 100% of our fleet with alternative power. We’re proud to be the first retailer in Canada to introduce a hydrogen fuel cell semi-truck to our fleet as a major milestone towards achieving that goal,” said Michael Buna, senior director, national fleet, Walmart Canada. “As we work to be more sustainable in our day-to-day fleet operations, embracing additional types of alternative power allows us to go further, faster.”

Electrek’s Take

Coyote Container completes historic trip in fuel cell truck
Image via Coyote Container.

Nikola’s hydrogen-powered trucks seem to be a popular choice among fleet buyers – a group that seems especially susceptible to the not-quite-true promise of five-minute refueling stops that proponents of hydrogen often repeat on social media.

Still, it seems to be a solution that’s slightly better than diesel. And, until hydrogen’s fans figure out that battery-electric is the best way forward, it seems like this change might be better than no change at all.

SOURCE | IMAGES: Nikola; Reuters.

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