MLB Power Rankings: Brewers on the rise, Rangers fall
Midway through September, the 2023 playoff picture is quickly taking shape.
The Braves became the first team to secure a postseason berth this past weekend and followed that up by clinching the National League East with a win over the Phillies on Wednesday night. The Orioles and Dodgers are not far behind Atlanta, and a handful of other teams are comfortably leading their respective divisions.
Two division races in the American League remain close — the AL West and AL East — while the NL wild-card race will seemingly go down to the wire. What else might the final weeks of the season bring?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team in baseball based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers and Alden Gonzalez to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 23 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 96-50
Previous ranking: 1
After going 18 games without a home run, Matt Olson is on fire once again, hitting eight in a 10-game stretch that culminated with his 51st home run Tuesday, tying Andruw Jones’ franchise record set in 2005. The Braves also passed the 2019 Dodgers for the most home runs in NL history and are on pace to beat the 2019 Twins’ major league record of 307. Kyle Wright made his first start since May but gave up six hits and six runs in three innings against the Phillies, generating just two swinging strikes out of 62 pitches. The Braves would love for Wright to give them another starting option for the postseason, but he’ll need to see his stuff tick up. — Schoenfield
Record: 91-54
Previous ranking: 2
By this time next week, we might know whether the Orioles have a hammerlock on the AL’s top playoff seed, or if they are going to be mired in a down-the-stretch dogfight with the Rays for the AL East crown. With the way the standings are shaping up, the division champ will land that top playoff seed and all the comforts that go with it — a first-round bye, home-field advantage, etc.
Starting today, the Orioles and Rays clash at Camden Yards in the first of four games that’ll take us through the weekend. If the Orioles can win three or four, their hold on the division lead will be rock-solid. Otherwise, it’s a battle. Either way, this is the matchup this season has been building toward for Baltimore. The Orioles have actually been a better road team this season but make no mistake: Opening the playoffs in the ALDS round in Baltimore would be huge for this breakout team. — Doolittle
Record: 88-57
Previous ranking: 3
The Dodgers called up a 25-year-old right-hander named Kyle Hurt on Tuesday for two reasons: He can provide multiple innings out of the bullpen, and he strikes out a lot of dudes. Hurt, acquired from the Marlins as part of the Dylan Floro trade of 2021, struck out a whopping 145 batters in 88⅓ innings in Double-A and Triple-A and did precisely what the Dodgers hoped he would in his major league debut. He entered the eighth inning to face Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto and Manny Machado and retired all three in order, then came back out for the ninth and struck out the side to seal a victory over the Padres. Hurt might still be a long shot for the Dodgers’ postseason roster — he was sent right back down to the minors on Wednesday, in fact — but he could provide precisely what they’ll need given that they’re not expecting to get much length from their starting pitchers in October. — Gonzalez
Record: 90-57
Previous ranking: 4
The Rays have been dealing with crushing player absences all season and that trend continued last week when starting center fielder Jose Siri went on the injured list with a hand fracture. Siri’s season isn’t necessarily over but Tampa Bay will have to navigate most, if not all, its remaining schedule without him. Siri has become kind of the prototypical role player for the Rays — they always seem to be able to leverage the things he does well, while ignoring or working around his flaws. In Siri’s case, he hits homers (25, second on the team) and plays elite defense (10 outs above average). The Rays could get Manuel Margot back soon; he just began a short rehab stint as he works his way back from elbow trouble. Siri has had a better 2023, but he and Margot are roughly equivalent in bottom-line production overall, even if the shape of their games is different. Still, that’s the Rays. They tend to have an answer for every problem. — Doolittle
Record: 83-64
Previous ranking: 5
The Astros continue to confound. After ending August with a resounding sweep of the Red Sox at Fenway Park, Houston began September by getting swept at home by a Yankees club mired in a kind of catatonic stupor. Then they went up to Arlington and clubbed a revved-up rival in the Rangers by a three-game score of 39-10. Then, after taking two of three from the Padres, the Astros lost two straight — scoring just two runs — at home to the A’s, who have been firmly in last place in the AL West since April 7. Houston is as healthy as it’s been all season and we probably can dismiss all of this as “it’s baseball.” But it’s still confusing. — Doolittle
Record: 81-64
Previous ranking: 9
Milwaukee’s big three — Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta — continues to roll as the team heads for another postseason appearance. Decisive wins over the Marlins earlier this week showcased what the Brewers can do in the playoffs: roll out more pitching than most opponents can. Woodruff’s complete game shutout Monday, for example, was a thing of beauty as he gave up six hits while striking out seven in the 12-0 win. The next night it was Peralta’s turn — he struck out nine over 6⅓ innings while giving up just a run on two hits. Then came the NL’s third-ranked bullpen, as Hoby Milner, Abner Uribe and Devin Williams all sport ERA’s under 2.00. That 3-1 win Tuesday showcased the Brewers’ formula for October — though they’ll also certainly take the blowout. — Rogers
Record: 80-66
Previous ranking: 8
The Blue Jays missed a golden opportunity to bury one of their prime competitors this week when they dropped the first two games of a crucial four-game set against Texas. The Rangers entered the series at the Rogers Centre reeling but took the first two games against a Toronto club that had won six of seven and welcomed Bo Bichette back to the lineup. Those two losses not only pushed the Blue Jays back to the brink of falling off the right-now AL playoff bracket but also clinched the season series between the teams in Texas’ favor. Thus, if the last playoff slot comes down to a tiebreaker between the pair, the Lone Star guys will get the nod. It has been that kind of season for Toronto, as the Jays just haven’t been able to put together a prolonged hot streak since early in the campaign. — Doolittle
Record: 79-67
Previous ranking: 10
One of the key players of this postseason will be Phillies closer Craig Kimbrel. As we saw last year, the Phillies have the talent to perform better in October than in the regular season — including beating the Braves — but they’ll likely need Kimbrel to lock down the ninth inning. His postseason history is checkered, however, with a 4.13 ERA and 13 runs in 24 career innings. He was last in the playoffs with the White Sox in 2021 and allowed runs in two of his three appearances. With the Red Sox in 2018, he allowed runs in five of his nine appearances. — Schoenfield
Record: 81-65
Previous ranking: 6
The Mariners temporarily fell back out of a playoff position after an ugly 3-8 road trip against the Mets, Reds and Rays in which they suffered two walk-off losses. Then, in their home series opener to the Angels on Monday, they lost in 11 innings after Julio Rodriguez had tied the game with a two-run home run in the 10th. But wins on Tuesday and Wednesday put the Mariners back into a wild-card spot, one game ahead of the Blue Jays. Rodriguez became the 44th member of the 30-30 club as he continues his torrid hitting streak — he’s now closing in on 100 RBIs and 100 runs and has hit .384 since July 25. — Schoenfield
Record: 81-64
Previous ranking: 7
Texas righted the ship — at least for now — by going on a mini win streak after getting swept by the Astros early last week. The big question for the Rangers, though, is whether they can survive the injuries to Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung and now Max Scherzer, who will miss the rest of the regular season, and possibly the playoffs, with a shoulder injury. Scherzer’s injury certainly makes the job that much harder on the mound, and the Rangers already had pitching issues from Dane Dunning, Nathan Eovaldi and others. The pen has also been a hot mess, compiling a season-long ERA close to 5.00, which ranks in the bottom five in MLB.
Considering all of that, it’s no wonder Texas is in a dogfight in the AL West. At least Corey Seager continues to be a leader on offense. He homered twice and hit .364 last week, which included three hits — two of them doubles — in Tuesday’s 6-3 win over the Blue Jays. — Rogers
Record: 78-69
Previous ranking: 11
The future is now for the Cubs’ No.1 prospect, Pete Crow-Armstrong. He arrived just in time to roam spacious Coors Field, making multiple highlight-reel catches in his first MLB start this week. The Cubs will undoubtedly use him on defense late in games while giving him spot starts down the stretch. It’s possible that could be the plan in October, as Crow-Armstrong’s speed and defense make him a valuable postseason commodity. Meanwhile, Justin Steele continued his Cy Young bid with another good outing last week. In his first two starts this month, he pitched 15 innings while giving up a single earned run. — Rogers
Record: 76-70
Previous ranking: 12
Byron Buxton received a cortisone shot to address inflammation in his right knee. The oft-injured outfielder exited a rehab start for Triple-A St. Paul on Sept. 1, just his second outing for the Saints. Despite this, Twins trainer Nick Paparesta told reporters the club still expects Buxton to return this season. He added that the notion of Buxton patrolling center field, at least part of the time, is still on the table. Obviously, the Twins would have a better shot at reaching their full potential in October if that were to happen. At the same time, if you’ve been following Buxton and the Twins to any extent, you know it’s nothing to count on. Sadly, everyone in Minnesota has plenty of experience in dealing with limbo when it comes to the team’s most talented player. — Doolittle
Record: 76-71
Previous ranking: 14
In a trade market devoid of premium bats, Tommy Pham is standing out as one of the most prized acquisitions. The 35-year-old outfielder has been a major boost to a young D-backs team fighting for a playoff spot, slashing .300/.340/.580 in September and coming up with timely hits, most notably an eighth-inning, game-tying home run in his return to Citi Field on Monday. The D-backs are also raving about his influence in the clubhouse.
“He’s on a quest to make this team better by being himself and sharing information on what he knows through experience he’s got,” D-backs manager Torey Lovullo told reporters. “To talk about the consistency of the at-bats, the consistency of the workouts — it’s just setting a standard for what we believe in, and the young players see it.” — Gonzalez
Record: 76-71
Previous ranking: 15
A series loss to the Cardinals over the weekend didn’t help the Reds’ playoff hopes, but they remain firmly in the race for the final NL wild-card spot. Newly acquired outfielder Hunter Renfroe had a rough week, going just 2-for-13 at the plate in an eight-day span through Tuesday. Fellow newcomer Harrison Bader fared better, going 4-for-15 and driving in three runs, while rookie Elly De La Cruz was 3-for-23 with five strikeouts. He’s hitting just .167 in September. This might serve as a reminder that Cincinnati’s best hope is in the future, not the present. — Rogers
Record: 75-71
Previous ranking: 17
The race for the NL’s final wild-card spot remains tight, but the Giants are getting some much-needed reinforcements back. Their rookie catcher, Patrick Bailey, returned from a concussion Wednesday. Ross Stripling, out since Aug. 16 because of a back strain, threw a four-inning simulated game Monday and is seemingly ready to return, based on his public frustration over not yet being activated. Michael Conforto, who suffered a Grade 2 hamstring strain Aug. 23, could return to the Giants’ lineup before the end of the week. Conforto was slashing .424/.500/.636 over an 11-game stretch before going down. The Giants, with the majors’ second-fewest runs per game in the second half, would love nothing more than to see him pick up where he left off. — Gonzalez
Record: 75-71
Previous ranking: 16
Series wins over the Dodgers and Phillies were huge, but the Marlins came out of those series and scored one run in two losses to the Brewers, halting any playoff momentum they had. Nobody has pulled away yet in that race for the final wild-card spot, however, so the Marlins are still hanging in there. Let’s give a shoutout to Tanner Scott, who has been the team’s one consistent reliever all season. He’s in the top 10 among all MLB relievers in strikeouts, holds (he also has seven saves) and innings. Most impressively, he’s first in win probability added, just ahead of Alexis Diaz, Felix Bautista and Gerrit Cole. Pretty good company there. — Schoenfield
Record: 73-72
Previous ranking: 13
Barring a miracle run, the Red Sox have fallen out of playoff contention, though their race against the Yankees to avoid the AL East cellar remains a nail-biter. Rafael Devers mashed his 30th homer, a rainbow shot to right, in a doubleheader against New York. He has three 30-homer seasons under his belt even though he has yet to turn 27 years old. Among players who have played at least half their games at third base for Boston, Devers is fourth in bWAR (behind Wade Boggs, Larry Gardner and Jimmy Collins) but he’s far and away the franchise homer leader at the position. His 169 career bombs is 38 more than second-place Frank Malzone, Boston’s regular at the hot corner from 1957 to 1965. Only Boggs and Malzone have had longer third-base tenures for the Red Sox than Devers, who is at seven seasons and counting. — Doolittle
Record: 73-72
Previous ranking: 18
After a brief uptick, the Yankees’ doom-struck season resumed its inevitable course with two more depressing developments. First, starter Luis Severino was lost for the season because of an oblique injury. Overall, it was a nightmarish campaign for the righty as he finished 4-8 with a 6.65 ERA and 6.15 FIP, though he had been pitching much better of late, putting up a 2.49 ERA over his past four outings. And that wasn’t even the real gut punch of the week. That would have to be the news that rookie center fielder Jasson Dominguez was headed for elbow surgery that will probably keep him out into next season. For now, Dominguez’s career numbers are stuck at eight games, four homers and a .677 slugging percentage, but at least they are frozen in a state that can offer fans in the Bronx some hope until he returns. — Doolittle
Record: 69-78
Previous ranking: 19
Yu Darvish, dealing with a stress reaction and a bone spur in his right elbow, announced Tuesday that he had given up on returning before season’s end, shutting down his throwing program in hopes that his arm will ultimately heal without the need for surgery. Manny Machado, however, continues to play. The Padres’ star third baseman has been dealing with a recurrence of tennis elbow for a few weeks, prompting him to spend all month relegated to DH duties. Offseason surgery is a possibility. But for now, barring more intense pain, he intends to keep playing — at least until the Padres are eliminated, which could happen soon. — Gonzalez
Record: 69-78
Previous ranking: 20
Cleveland is now closer to third-place Detroit than first-place Minnesota, so the news that Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie made rehab starts Tuesday and Wednesday comes a little too late — although at least it’s good news that they’re healthy enough to pitch, a positive sign for 2024 (Bieber will no doubt be potential trade bait in the offseason, however). Indeed, as the season winds down, it will be interesting to see what the Guardians do in the outfield. Their outfielders have hit just 17 home runs — last in the majors by a large margin. Steven Kwan is a likely Gold Glover in left field and has a solid OBP, but they’re going to have to upgrade in center and right. — Schoenfield
Record: 68-79
Previous ranking: 21
Shohei Ohtani missed only two of the Angels’ first 137 games, despite suffering a tear of his right ulnar collateral ligament near the end of that stretch. Then he tweaked an oblique muscle during a rare session of outdoor batting practice Sept. 4 and hasn’t played since. Wednesday marked the 10th consecutive time in which Ohtani tried to get himself ready to be in the starting lineup but couldn’t. He has yet to give up on serving as the Angels’ designated hitter this season, but there is no telling when he will be able to do so again. He still leads the majors in OPS and the AL in home runs, while having contributed a 3.14 ERA in 132 innings as a pitcher. He shouldn’t have to take another plate appearance to lock up his second MVP. — Gonzalez
Record: 66-79
Previous ranking: 23
We’re into the home stretch of Miguel Cabrera‘s career and it’s hard to predict what will happen. Cabrera has struggled badly at times but every so often, a little vintage Miggy emerges, such as in his four-hit game against the White Sox on Sept. 2. There is still time for him to do a little end-of-career chart climbing. At 510 career homers, he’s one shy of Mel Ott for 25th. He’s also one extra-base hit behind Adrian Beltre for 14th. And if that next extra-base hit is a double, it would tie Hank Aaron at No. 13. Even if none of these things happens, the fact that Cabrera is among a group that includes Ott, Beltre and Aaron tells you all you need to know about what kind of career he has had. — Doolittle
Record: 67-78
Previous ranking: 22
Ronny Mauricio continues to impress in his first two weeks in the majors and blasted his first career home run, a 440-foot shot into the second deck in right field. Mauricio has played second base in all his games while Jeff McNeil has slid into left field, perhaps a sign of how the Mets will align things in 2024. McNeil is signed through 2026, but he has now had two less-than-stellar seasons sandwiched around his batting title in 2022, so his bat doesn’t necessarily profile all that well in left field. Indeed, McNeil and Starling Marte could both face job competition in 2024 from DJ Stewart, who has earned a look next year thanks to his impressive hitting the past few weeks. — Schoenfield
Record: 68-78
Previous ranking: 25
Pittsburgh got a much-needed well-pitched game from Bailey Falter in Tuesday’s 5-1 win over Washington. Even with his outing, the Pirates compiled a 5.00 ERA last week. Pitching will be an offseason need as much as anything for Pittsburgh, which features depth in position players but not as much on the mound. Outside of Mitch Keller, it has been a task to find consistent starting pitching. Meanwhile, Oneil Cruz has been shut down so his 2023 was a lost season after he fractured his ankle in April. The Pirates should have a good offense next season if Cruz and others stay healthy, but pitching will be the No.1 focus all winter. — Rogers
Record: 65-81
Previous ranking: 26
Adam Wainwright finally got win No.199 this week, over the AL’s best team, the Orioles. Now, he’ll have a couple chances to get No. 200, first at home then on the road. St. Louis plans to honor him during his final weekend as a Cardinal. It’s about the only thing the organization can celebrate this year. Though, one bright spot has been the progression of outfielder Jordan Walker, whose season-long numbers are looking pretty good right now. He’s hitting .300 with a .945 OPS just this month and is showing signs of being the complete player the Cardinals need as they focus on pitching this offseason. — Rogers
Record: 65-81
Previous ranking: 24
It took a little longer than expected to make the official announcement, but the club has agreed to a multiyear extension with longtime GM Mike Rizzo (to go with the two-year extension given to manager Dave Martinez in August). The Nationals have been more competitive than expected this season as the franchise continues its rebuild.
“I don’t think that it’s a successful season, but it’s a very encouraging season,” Rizzo told reporters. “Nobody wants to win 70 games in a season; we want to win 97 games in a season. So that’s our goal, that’s always been our goal, but this is a good step in the right direction to that.” — Schoenfield
Record: 56-90
Previous ranking: 27
Manager Pedro Grifol sent a not-so-subtle message to rookie outfielder Oscar Colas when he demoted him to Triple-A recently — a rare move for a prospect who needs playing time on a team out of it in September. Grifol told reporters that Colas needed to work on all aspects of his game. The same could probably be said of the whole team, as the White Sox attempt to avoid losing 100 games for the fifth time in franchise history. That’s as many as they lost in 2018 when they were in mid-rebuild. — Rogers
Record: 53-92
Previous ranking: 28
With a blowout loss to the division-rival Giants on Saturday, the Rockies became the third team to be mathematically eliminated from postseason contention, joining the A’s and Royals. They were 51-90 by that point, having dropped 15 of their previous 18 games. With 2½ weeks remaining, the Rockies must go no worse than 10-7 to avoid the first 100-loss season in franchise history. Given how it’s been going lately, that feels impossible. — Gonzalez
Record: 46-101
Previous ranking: 29
Cole Ragans‘ streak of scoreless innings ended at 26 in Sunday’s loss to the Blue Jays. Ragans had allowed just one hit over 5⅔ scoreless innings, but a couple of walks and a few wild pitches culminated in two runs. He walked six in the game, showing his first serious issues with control since coming to the Royals. Batters are hitting just .192 off him in his nine starts with just one home run allowed in 53⅓ innings. Get him for your fantasy team next year. — Schoenfield
Record: 46-100
Previous ranking: 30
The Astros began the week leading the majors in runs scored since the All-Star break, and the A’s had won only one of 10 games against them all season. But Ken Waldichuk followed an opener with six no-hit innings against Houston on Monday, despite striking out only three batters, and JP Sears contributed six innings of two-run ball Tuesday, clinching the A’s sixth road series victory of the season. Justin Verlander offered a tip of the cap afterward, telling reporters, “They’re making good pitches, and their hitters are really locked in right now. They have some good young talent.” — Gonzalez
A number of teams are starting to shift their focus to October as the final month of the 2025 MLB regular season continues.
The Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs have both clinched postseason berths, with the Brewers closing in on the NL Central title. The Philadelphia Phillies have locked up the NL East title and the Los Angeles Dodgers are headed back to October, again.
And in the biggest twist of the 2025 season, the Cleveland Guardians have rocked the American League playoff picture with a September surge, emerging as a serious contender in both the AL Central and wild-card races entering the final week.
Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the next team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?
We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.
Key links: Full MLB standings | Wild-card standings
Who’s in?
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers clinched the season’s first playoff spot for a second consecutive year on Saturday with a Mets’ loss to Texas.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies clinched a spot in the postseason on Sunday with the Giants’ loss to the Dodgers. On Monday with a win over the Dodgers, they clinched the NL East title for the second straight year.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs clinched their spot in the postseason on Wednesday with a win over the Pirates. It’s their first playoff appearance in a full-length season since 2018.
The Dodgers clinched their 13th consecutive playoff appearance on Friday when the Phillies beat the Diamondbacks.
Who can clinch a playoff spot next?
The Blue Jays, Yankees, Mariners and Padres all have at least a 97% chance of making the postseason, as well.
What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?
American League
Wild-card round: (6) Guardians at (3) Tigers, (5) Red Sox at (4) Yankees
ALDS: Guardians/Tigers vs. (2) Mariners, Red Sox/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays
National League
Wild-card round: (6) Mets at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs
NLDS: Mets/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers
Breaking down the AL race
The Blue Jays have taken control of the race for the AL’s No. 1 seed. While Toronto sits atop the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are duking it out for wild-card seeding. And the Seattle Mariners are attempting to separate themselves from the Houston Astros in a two-team AL West race. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians are in hot pursuit of the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central while also playing themselves into a tight race for the final wild-card spot.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Breaking down the NL race
The Brewers were the first MLB team to seal its spot in October, and the Phillies — who then sealed an NL East title — clinched next. A group of contenders have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets clinging to a lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds for the final playoff spot, and there is intrigue in the NL West as the Dodgers attempt to fend off the Padres for the division crown.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Game of the day
Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:
Playoff schedule
Wild-card series
Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium
Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*
Division series
Best of five
ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*
NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*
League championship series
Best of seven
ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*
NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*
World Series
Best of seven
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28
Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29*
Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*
* If necessary
Sports
Who are MLB’s teams to beat this October — and who could take them down? Execs, insiders weigh in
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Jesse Rogers
The MLB playoffs are just around the corner and shaping up to be a wide-open affair. For the second consecutive season, there is not a single team on pace to win 100 or more games. That means there is plenty of parity across the majors, which is bound to carry over to October.
With that in mind, we asked 19 baseball players, executives and scouts: Who is the team to beat in the National League? And who is the team to beat in the American League?
There was little uniformity to their answers, though most agreed on one thing: a sleeper team that people in both leagues agreed could make a run in October. Here’s how those in the game view the upcoming postseason.
The NL’s team to beat is …
(Phillies, 5; Dodgers, 4; Padres, 2; Mets, 1)
Voting was as tight as you might imagine, considering the Brewers are mixed in with the defending champion Dodgers and high-priced Phillies. Those teams dominated our poll, leaving few votes for anyone else.
All three teams can slug their way to the World Series, but the Dodgers have a distinct advantage in the power game, outhomering both Philadelphia and Milwaukee by a wide margin this regular season. However, Philly employs easily the best closer of the three — a crucial element that could help finish off those tight October games.
Still, it was the Brewers who won our poll because they’ve played at such a high level in all areas while also possessing a deep and healthy starting staff.
Why the Brewers
NL player: “They seem like a team that has a really solid plan and cohesive approach. And they seem like they’re on the same page. I just like how they play. And they’ve done it all year; why can’t they keep it going?”
NL scout: “They still have to figure out the back end of their pen, but in a short series, they have the luxury of sending one of their good starters to the bullpen. And they might just run into enough home runs to keep pace in October.”
NL exec: “Getting the bye will be huge for them. They’ve been knocked out in those short series several times; this will let them breathe a bit. Plus, their starting staff is so good. If I’m Milwaukee, I want the longer series.”
Biggest threats to Brewers
NL player: “It’s simple for me. They still have good pitching, and they’ve been there before. Playoffs are about home runs, and they can hit them.”
NL player: “Their lineup is a little top-heavy, but they have enough at the bottom that can do the job. If those guys show up, then that lineup is really good. Their pen is incredible with [Jhoan] Duran.”
NL exec: “It’s their last hurrah, right? They have older players, some of whom will be free agents at the end of the season. I just can’t see [Bryce] Harper going his career without a ring, and this is their best chance, even without [Zack] Wheeler.”
NL player: “When we played them, they didn’t have a good series, but they seem to turn it on when they need to. That’s the sign of a champion. I think their offense will have a big October and lead them like it did last year.”
NL exec: “Talent will win out, and they have the potential for healthiest pitching staff all year in October.”
If not Milwaukee, Philadelphia or Los Angeles, then who?
Truth be told, these insiders responded before the latest Mets free fall became so dramatic — New York was on an eight-game losing streak that ended with an extra-innings win over Texas on Sunday. But, hey, anyone can get hot at the right time, right? The Mets proved that last year. But they have to prove they can even get into the October party before they can think about making a deep run.
The Padres are hard to figure out, but that doesn’t make them less dangerous than any other contender. Some days, their offense goes into hibernation, but they can shut anyone down in the late innings. Their bullpen is that good and could take them far despite the loss of Jason Adam.
NL player: “I like San Diego. They’re hungry. They made all the right deadline moves. And they have the experience of getting close but not going all the way.”
NL exec: “There’s a lot to like about San Diego, but they can still be pitched to even with their deadline additions. It’s like they disappear sometimes. If they survive a wild-card round and get some home games, Petco [Park]’s energy could wake them up. Still a great bullpen.”
NL player: “The Mets are really good. I know they’ve struggled, but I’m banking on them getting hot like they did last postseason. Sometimes you get your worst baseball behind you, then find your groove. I like the Mets to do that.”
NL scout: “Their lineup 1-9 has to carry them. I’m not sure how they’ll piece it together on the mound, but sometimes you find rookie magic in an arm or two. If two of [Nolan] McLean, [Jonah] Tong and [Brandon] Sproat can come through, why not the Mets?
The AL’s team to beat is …
(Tigers, 5; Yankees, 3; Red Sox, 3; Astros, 2)
The voting was even tighter in the AL than in the NL — four teams received three or more votes — but it was the Blue Jays who edged out the competition with just one more vote than Detroit.
Home-field advantage could make the difference for the AL’s top two teams, both of whom dominate at home but hover around .500 on the road. The Tigers play so well at Comerica Park, where they are able to run rampant on the bases and go first to third on teams. And, of course, they feature Tarik Skubal at the top of their rotation. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays can get the newly renovated Rogers Centre rocking as hard as any stadium in the majors. That top seed in the AL is up for grabs down the stretch — and one of these two teams is highly likely to get it.
Why the Blue Jays
AL player: “They’re one of the most rounded teams in the AL. They have some experience, especially in the rotation, and have a little bit of everything in the lineup. That’s tough to contend with in a series. I just think they have the most complete team.”
AL scout: “As good as [Bo] Bichette, Vlad [Guerrero Jr.] and [George] Springer have been, it’s the contributions from guys from the left side of the plate like [Nathan] Lukes and [Addison] Barger which make Toronto really dangerous. They have some balance, which has eluded them.”
AL exec: “I love their team, but I question their bullpen. It hasn’t been very stout in the second half. Tommy Nance might be a guy to lean on.”
Biggest threat to Blue Jays: Detroit Tigers
AL player: “Detroit is high up on that list [of teams to beat]. They know how to win. That’s the biggest thing. They proved that last offseason. And they’ve turned that park into a nice home-field advantage. I know they go first to third better than anyone. That’s a key, playing in that ballpark.”
AL scout: “Sometimes seeing a team play a lot you can get a more negative opinion than what their record is, and sometimes it can be a more positive opinion than their record. With the Tigers, it’s the latter. And they already have a pretty good record.”
AL exec: “I’ve tried to fill out playoff rotations without a true ace. It’s really tough. So having Tarik Skubal makes all the difference for me. Unless he runs out of gas, Detroit is my pick.”
If not Toronto or Detroit, then who?
A case can be made for any of the wild-card entrants — depending on where Houston finishes, as it remains in a tight division battle with Seattle — to pull off an October upset with big-game experience oozing from the Astros and Yankees lineups. New York can also slug, of course, while the return of Yordan Alvarez makes Houston’s offense ever so dangerous again.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, have made the postseason only once (2021) since winning the World Series in 2018. However, they feature a balanced lineup with playoff leadership in the form of Alex Bregman. Plus, Aroldis Chapman is about as good as it gets on the closer front.
AL exec: “I think their bullpen will get hot, and [they] have enough power bats to get through a weaker field in the AL.”
AL player: “It’s the Red Sox. They are playing good baseball. They have formidable pitching starting with [Garrett] Crochet and their lineup is cohesive and looks like they have a good time together. They know how to win with Bregman there.”
AL player: “Everyone is forgetting that Yordan Alvarez missed most of the season. He’s a difference-maker. And when we played them, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown were as good as any two pitchers. Houston is my pick.”
Everyone’s October sleeper pick: Seattle Mariners
Until recently, the Mariners hadn’t shown the league their best hand, ending up in the sleeper category because of it. Those we spoke to said Seattle simply has more upside available to it than any other team.
AL player: “A team that can get really hot that isn’t playing its best baseball is Seattle. That pitching staff is legit. [Cal] Raleigh hit 50 [home runs] but they have other guys that are built for that moment — the spotlight moment. Randy Arozarena and [Eugenio] Suarez are two of them. They’re built to win late.”
NL player: “It’s one of those lineups where everyone is waiting for them to put it all together. Their rotation is very talented, and they have one of the best closers in the league. I think they’re one of those teams that, if they get hot at the right time, no one can beat them.”
AL exec: “Seattle has one of its best teams we’ve seen there in years. If there is a real sleeper in this entire playoff field, it’s the Seattle Mariners.”
AL exec: “Seattle is my ‘surprise’ team. I think a bad year for pitching in Seattle could get flipped on its head in the postseason with their starters picking it up.”
Shohei Ohtani launched his 53rd home run to tie for the National League lead as the Los Angeles Dodgers erased an early four-run deficit Saturday night in a 7-5 victory over the San Francisco Giants.
Ohtani pulled even with Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber when the Japanese star connected for a 403-foot shot to left field in the sixth inning. It was Ohtani’s 29th homer at Dodger Stadium this season, a franchise record. He topped his own mark of 28 last year, when he finished with a career-high 54 on the way to winning his third MVP award and first in the National League.
“I think that the home run title will be great. But I think it’s just a byproduct of taking good at-bats, and he’s playing to win,” Roberts said. “If there’s a walk that’s needed and they’re not pitching to him, he’s taking his walks. And if they make a mistake, he’s making them pay.”
Ohtani also scored his career-high 140th run of the season.
Another remarkable season by the two-way star had the rest of his clubhouse touting the case for a third straight MVP award.
“I haven’t looked up any deep numbers or anything like that, but I think [the MVP is] Shohei,” said starter Tyler Glasnow, who rebounded from a four-run first inning with four scoreless innings to get the win. “He pitches and hits. I think it’s obviously Shohei, in my mind.”
Max Muncy‘s two-run homer in the first inning pulled Los Angeles to 4-2. Michael Conforto also went deep and Tommy Edman hit a tiebreaking shot for the playoff-bound Dodgers, who won their fourth straight and lead the NL West by four games over the San Diego Padres with seven to play.
The Giants stayed four games behind the New York Mets for the last NL wild card, with the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks also ahead of the Giants.
Jack Dreyer pitched a perfect ninth for his fourth save.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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