It’s worth saying at the outset that not everything that went wrong last autumn – with Britain’s financial markets plunged into chaos and the pound sliding to the lowest level ever against the US dollar – can be laid at the door of Liz Truss.
There were plenty of other explanations for why the UK was vulnerable to a financial shock.
Most glaringly of all, the Bank of England was in the process of reversing quantitative easing, its epic bond-buying scheme. Financial markets were being asked, all of a sudden, to buy an extra slug of the government bonds they sold to the Bank years ago. It was a recipe for indigestion.
The economy was still recovering from the pandemic, from lockdowns and the supply chain disruption that ensued.
The public finances were in a particularly weak position, with the national debt having rocketed higher to finance the furlough scheme.
Much of the economic data at that point suggested the UK was worse hit than any other major economy and the pound was already sagging, dropping against the US dollar from early 2022.
Britain, in other words, looked vulnerable. There were bombs buried throughout financial markets. But here’s where things get less flattering for the former PM because there’s little doubt that what pushed the UK over the edge was the behaviour of Ms Truss and her team.
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You can see as much when you look at various metrics of financial stress, from the strength of the pound to the height of government bond yields to the credit default rates which signal how likely the UK is to default on its debts.
All of them peaked in the days after the mini-budget. And all of them dropped back down again as it became clear the prime minister was going to resign. The pound has recovered and the main explanation behind higher government bond yields is not credibility but rising interest rates.
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0:50
Truss ‘tried to fatten and slaughter the pig’
Ms Truss acknowledged her part in this on Monday when she said “it is certainly true that I didn’t just try to fatten the pig on market day; I tried to rear the pig and slaughter it as well. I confess to that.”
However, this is not an incidental problem. This was the major problem at the time. Markets were not passing judgement on the intricacies of the mini-budget and its various measures. They were making a bigger, simpler statement: we don’t trust you.
The problem wasn’t the Truss plan for growth, it was the ham-fisted nature of the way she was going about it. At a time when the UK (like many developed economies) was on the financial precipice, this tipped the country over the edge.
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In one sense, those on the right of the Tory party should be reassured by such a verdict. What happened last autumn shouldn’t end the long-running debates over what we should do with taxes. It shouldn’t end the conversation about how to boost economic growth.
Indeed, Britain still faces many of the same issues it did last year: weak growth, high current account and budget deficits, a wayward set of economic policies and some big question marks about monetary policy.
Markets weren’t casing a verdict on all that stuff. It’s far more simple than that. They lost faith in the government. It squandered its credibility and for a few weeks we danced on the edge of crisis.
Then Liz Truss left office and the credibility crisis ended. Time to move on.
US stock markets suffered more significant losses on Wednesday, with stocks in leading AI chipmakers slumping after firms said new restrictions on exports to China would cost them billions.
Nvidia fell 6.87% – and was at one point down 10% – after revealing it would now need a US government licence to sell its H20 chip.
Rival chipmaker AMD slumped 7.35% after it predicted a $800m (£604m) charge due to its MI308 also needing a licence.
Dutch firm ASML, which makes hardware essential to chip manufacturing, fell more than 5% after it missed order expectations and said US tariffs created uncertainty.
The losses filtered into the tech-dominated Nasdaq index, which recovered slightly to end 3% down, while the larger S&P 500 fell 2.2%.
Image: Pic: AP
Such losses would have been among the worst in years were it not for the turmoil over recent weeks.
It comes as China remains the focus of Donald Trump’s tariff regime, with both countries imposing tit-for-tat charges of over 100% on imports.
The US commerce department said in a statement it was “committed to acting on the president’s directive to safeguard our national and economic security”.
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13:27
Could Trump make a trade deal with UK?
Nvidia’s bespoke China chip is already deliberately less powerful than products sold elsewhere after intervention from the previous Biden administration.
However, the Trump government is worried the H20 and others could still be used to build a supercomputer in China, threatening national security and US dominance in AI.
Nvidia said the move would cost it around $5.5bn (£4.1bn) and the licensing requirement would be in place for the “indefinite future”.
Nvidia’s recently announced a $500bn (£378bn) investment to build infrastructure in America – something Mr Trump heralded as a victory in his mission to boost US manufacturing.
However, it appears to have been too little to stave off the new restrictions.
Pressure has also come from the Democrats, with senator Elizabeth Warren writing to the commerce secretary and urging him to limit chip sales to China.
Meanwhile, the head of US central bank also warned on Wednesday that US tariffs could slow the economy and raise inflation more than expected.
Jerome Powell said the bank would need more time to decide on lowering interest rates.
“The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated,” he said.
“The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”
Predictions of a recession in the US have risen significantly since the president revealed details of the import taxes a few weeks ago.
However, he subsequently paused the higher rates for 90 days to allow for negotiations.
Inflation fell more than expected and for the second month in a row, official figures show.
The consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation fell to 2.6% in March, down from 2.8% in February and 3% in January, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data.
It means prices are rising at the slowest pace since December and closest to the Bank of England’s 2% target.
The rate is also lower than expected by economists polled by Reuters, who anticipated inflation of 2.7%.
But the drop is likely to be short-lived as a raft of bill rises kicked in at the start of April.
Energy, water, and council tax bills rose throughout the UK at the start of this month.
Why did inflation fall?
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It was a fall in fuel costs, thanks to lower oil prices that led to the surprise drop, combined with the unchanged food price rise.
The price of games, toys and hobbies, as well as data processing equipment, all fell.
These drops counteracted a “strong” rise in the price of clothes, the ONS said.
The late timing of Easter also meant comparing March 2024 – as the ONS does with its annual inflation rise figure – with March 2025 isn’t comparing like with like.
Easter and the associated school break bring things like higher airfares and hotel costs, something that was not seen last month as the feast takes place in April this year.
What does this mean for interest rates?
All measures of inflation fell, in a boost to the Bank of England as they mull interest rate cuts.
A key way of assessing price rises, core inflation, which excludes volatile price items like fuel and food, dropped to 3.4%.
It’s closely watched by the rate setters at the Bank of England, who meet next month and are widely expected to make borrowing less expensive by bringing interest rates down to 4.25%.
Another important measure – services inflation – dropped to 4.7% from 5% in February. As a predominantly services-based economy, a drop in that rate is good news for central bankers and households.
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1:42
Could Trump’s tariff be positive?
Inflation data, combined with the fact job vacancies are at pre-pandemic levels for the first time since 2021, has meant traders are now expecting four interest rate cuts this year, which would bring the base interest rate to 3.5% by December.
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has said it is “likely” that British Steel will be nationalised.
However he also stressed the importance of finding a private sector partner for the business because the scale of capital required for steel transformation was “very significant, even with government support”.
Mr Reynolds, speaking to reporters in the Lincolnshire town after raw materials arrived to keep the site running, said that nationalisation was the “likely option at this stage”.
He added: “What we are now going to do, having secured both control of the site and the supply of raw materials, so the blast furnaces won’t close in a matter of days, is work on the future.
“We’ve got the ownership question, which is pressing.
“I was clear when I gave the speech in parliament – we know there is a limited lifespan of the blast furnaces, and we know that what we need for the future is a private sector partner to come in and work with us on that transformation and co-fund that transformation.”
The government passed emergency legislation on Saturday to take over British Steel’s Scunthorpe plant, the last in the UK capable of producing virgin steel, after talks with its Chinese owners, Jingye, broke down.
The company recently cancelled orders for supplies of the raw materials needed to keep the blast furnaces running, sparking a race against time to keep it operational.
While those materials have been secured, questions remain about the long-term future of British Steel and whether it will be fully nationalised or the private sector will get involved.
Reynolds rows back
Mr Reynolds earlier said he would look at Chinese firms “in a different way” following the rowbut did not rule out their involvement completely.
He previously told Sky News’ Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips,that he would not “personally bring a Chinese company into our steel sector” again, describing steel as a “sensitive area” in the UK.
However, industry minister Sarah Jones took a different position on Tuesday morning, telling Sky News she is “not ruling out” the possibility of another Chinese partner.
She said having a pragmatic relationship with Beijing, the world’s second-biggest economy, is still important and stringent tests would apply “to a Chinese company as they would to any other company”.
Asked for clarity on his position during a visit to the port of Immingham, where materials from two ships were being unloaded and transported to the plant, Mr Reynolds said: “I think we’ve got to recognise that steel is a sensitive sector.
“A lot of the issues in the global economy with steel come from production and dumping of steel products… so I think you would look at a Chinese firm in a different way.
“But I’m really keen to stress the action we’ve taken here was to step in because it was one specific company that I thought wasn’t acting in the UK’s national interest, and we had to take the action we did.”
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9:35
China relationship ‘really important’
The materials that arrived on Tuesday, including coking coal and iron, are enough to keep the furnaces running for weeks, the Department for Business and Trade said.
They are needed because if the furnaces cool down too much, the molten iron solidifies and blocks the furnaces, making it extremely difficult and expensive to restart them.
Switching off furnaces is a costly nightmare the govt wants to avoid
There’s no switch that easily turns a blast furnace on and off.
Temperatures inside can approach 2,000C and to protect the structure the interior is lined with ceramic insulation.
But the ceramic bricks expand and contract depending on the temperature, and any change needs to be done carefully over several weeks to stop them cracking.
Molten material inside the furnace also needs to be drained by drilling a hole through the wall of the furnace.
It’s a dangerous and expensive process, normally only ever done when there’s a major planned refurbishment.
That’s why the government wants to keep the furnaces at Scunthorpe burning.
The problem is, supplies for the furnaces are running low.
They need pellets of iron ore – the main raw material for making steel.
And they also need a processed form of coal called coke – the fuel that provides both the heat and the chemical reaction to purify the iron so it’s ready to make strong steel alloy.
Without a fresh supply of both the furnaces may have to be turned off in just a fortnight. And that would be a complex, costly nightmare the government wants to avoid.
‘Chinese ownership truly dreadful’
Opposition politicians have accused China of sabotage to increase reliance on its steel products, and want the country to be prevented from future dealings not only with steel but any UK national infrastructure.
Veteran Tory MP Sir Iain Duncan Smith said the government needs to define which industries are “strategic” – and prevent China from being allowed to invest in such sectors.
Liberal Democrats foreign affairs spokesperson Calum Miller said reverting to Chinese ownership would be like finding “your house ransacked and then leaving your doors unlocked”.
Image: Raw materials for the Scunthorpe steel plant
Image: Coking coal is unloaded at Immingham Port. Pic: Reuters
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage took the same position, saying the thought the government “could even contemplate another Chinese owner of British steel is truly dreadful”, and that he would not have China “in our nuclear program, anywhere near our telecoms or anything else”.
“They are not our friends,” he added.
Number 10 said on Monday that it was not aware of any “sabotage” at the plant and there is no block on Chinese companies.
The Chinese embassy has urged the British government not to “politicise” the situation by “linking it to security issues”, saying it is “an objective fact that British steel companies have generally encountered difficulties in recent years”.
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Jingye reported losses of around £700k a day at Scunthorpe, which will now come at a cost to the taxpayer.
During Tuesday morning’s interview round, Ms Jones said the government had offered Jingye money in return for investment and “we think that there is a model there that we could replicate with another private sector company”.
But she said there “isn’t another private sector company there waiting in the wings” currently, and that it may be a “national solution” that is needed.
She said “all of the options” were expensive but that it would have cost more to the taxpayer to allow the site to shut.
A YouGov poll shows the majority of the public (61%) support the government’s decision to nationalise British Steel.