The New York Stock Exchange welcomes executives and guests of Ormat Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: ORA), on Sept. 6, 2023, to celebrate entering its 20th year of trading on the NYSE.
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
Bracing for Fed meeting U.S. stocks were little changed Monday as traders await the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Asia-Pacific markets retreated Tuesday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped around 0.4% as minutes from the RBA’s last meeting revealed the central bank thinks inflation is still “too high.” Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 slumped 1.1%, leading losses in the region.
Rare returns Early-stage investing in China hasn’t been lucrative. Only four U.S. dollar-denominated venture capital funds established between 2015 and 2020 have returned investors the money they put in, according to data from Preqin, a research firm. The four firms are: Fengshion Capital Investment Fund, LYFE Capital USD Fund II and GGV Capital V.
Top of the shelf Instacart priced its initial public offering at $30 a share, the top end of its expected range. That gives the grocery delivery company a valuation of about $10 billion, a figure around 3.5 times its annual revenue. By comparison, DoorDash, a competitor, trades at 4.25 times. Instacart’s the first venture-backed tech startup to list since December 2021, and will signal the health of the IPO market.
Monthly payment for X X, previously known as Twitter, will charge users “a small monthly payment” to combat “vast armies of bots,” Elon Musk said. Musk also divulged that X has 550 million “monthly users” who generate 100 million to 200 million posts per day. Separately, Turkish President Recep Erdogan invited Musk to build his next Tesla factory in Turkey, reported the country’s state media.
Extra pricey olive oil Olive oil prices have surged to $8,900 a ton this month amid severe droughts in the Mediterranean. That’s over 100% higher than the year before — and far higher than the record of $6,242 set in 1996, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. And with extreme weather not abating and supplies depleting, prices might continue climbing.
[PRO] Oiling up real estate Oil prices are currently more than $90 per barrel, and could rise further on the supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. It’s natural to expect energy and oil firms to reap the rewards from this. But, rather surprisingly, two global real estate stocks could also benefit from higher oil prices, said Morgan Stanley.
The bottom line
Stocks barely budged yesterday. All major indexes ticked up, but the gains were so tiny — measured in the hundredths of a percentage point — that it’s better to think of them as unchanged. Trading volume was muted, too. Both the SPDR S&P 500 and the Invesco QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, traded around 25% fewer shares than their 30-day average.
It’s not that investors aren’t sure about what the Fed might do at its meeting Wednesday. They’re all but certain the central bank will keep interest rates the same for now, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. It’s the November meeting investors are fretting over. Currently, markets think there’s a 28.7% chance of a hike — but that percentage has reached as high as 50.89% in late August (and was 31.3% just five hours ago!). Those wild swings reflect the uncertainty over the November meeting.
Still, Goldman Sachs thinks “the FOMC can forgo a final hike this year, as we think it ultimately will,” as the bank’s chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a Sunday note. But with the U.S. economy running hot, the labor market remaining tight — and roiled by strikes — and oil prices surging again, it’s no surprise the broader market doesn’t really know what inflation — and hence interest rates — will look like for the rest of the year.
Hence, the Fed’s dot plot, which charts where the central bankers think interest rates will be in the short- and long-term, will be closely scrutinized by investors. But Hatzius thinks even if members pencil in one more hike for the year, the Fed won’t actually pull the trigger. It’s “only to preserve flexibility for now,” he wrote.
Perhaps we should give the Fed some benefit of the doubt. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, is certainly doing so. “Generally speaking, Fed watchers like to criticize the Fed and suggest that they’re always wrong about their forecast and what they are doing,” Yardeni said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
“But I think they’re actually getting it right this time,” Yardeni said. “And I think we may very well have immaculate disinflation, where inflation comes down without an economy-wide recession.” This might be a brazenly optimistic prediction. But it’s an undeniably cheery thought — one of the few certainties to be had today.
Jeep is reconsidering plans to launch an electric Compass in North America. The next-gen Jeep Compass is officially on pause after Stellantis temporarily halted operations at its Brampton Assembly Plant, where the current SUV is built, to take a closer look at its strategy in North America.
Is Jeep canceling the electric Compass in the US?
Stellantis froze all activities at the Brampton plant on Thursday, including work on the next-gen Jeep Compass. The company said the sudden halt was over “today’s dynamic environment.”
In an email to Ontario newspaper Windsor Star, Stellantis’s head of communications for Canada, Lou Ann Gosselin, said, “As we navigate today’s dynamic environment, Stellantis continues to reassess its product strategy in North America.”
Gosselin added that Stellantis’s decision is “to ensure it is offering customers a range of vehicles with flexible powertrain options to best meet their needs.”
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The pause is temporary, and the decision will not impact operations at the Windsor facility. The Brampton plant has been down since December 2023 for retooling as part of Stellantis plans to build EVs, including an electric Jeep Compass.
Jeep teases the electric Compass for the first time (Source: Stellantis)
The Compass is Jeep’s “most globally available model,” according to Gosselin. Later this year, the next-gen model will still debut in Europe, with production slated to begin in Melfi, Italy. Stellantis previously said production would expand to North America and around the world.
Jeep Wagoneer S (Source: Stellantis)
Stellantis initially planned to begin building the next-gen Jeep Compass, including an electric version for North America, in the fourth quarter of 2025. Mass production was slated for 2026.
Lana Payne, Unfor national president, the union behind workers at the plant, said the “timing of this announcement raises very serious concerns.” Payne added:
The chaos and uncertainty plaguing the North American auto industry, which is under the constant threat of tariffs and a dismantling of EV regulations from the United States, are having real-time impacts on workers and corporate decisions.
Although Stellantis didn’t mention US President Trump or tariffs as a factor, Unifor Local 444 president James Stewart told the Windsor Star, “There’s no doubt the Trump administration’s EV policies are having an effect.”
Stewart explained the pause comes as Stellantis reassesses what powertrain options to offer for the next-gen Compass.
Jeep Recon EV (Source: Stellantis)
Stellantis still plans to return to a three-shift operation, aiming to start operations early next year. The plant was once home to iconic models, like the Dodge Challenger, Charger, and Chrysler 300, all of which are now discontinued. The electric Dodge Charger Daytona is made at its Windsor plant.
Jeep launched its first electric SUV in North America, the Wagoneer S, last year and will introduce the more rugged, Wrangler-like Recon EV later this year. As for an electric Jeep Compass, those of us in the US and Canada will have to wait to hear more.
Electrek’s Take
Stellantis is already struggling in North America. Sales fell another 15% last year to just over 1.3 million, with every brand, except for Fiat, selling significantly fewer vehicles.
Jeep brand sales fell 9% in the US, Ram sales fell 19%, Dodge sales fell 29%, Alfa Romeo sales fell 19%, and Chrysler sales were down 7% in 2024.
Although Trump’s tariffs threats are likely one of the biggest reasons behind Stellantis’s decision, it will likely only put it back further in the long run. The industry will still progress toward electric vehicles, while automakers stalling now will get left behind with more advanced, software-driven models from China, South Korea, etc.
Behind the Cherokee and Wrangler, the Compass was Jeep’s third best-selling vehicle in the US last year. Sales were up 16% to nearly 111,700, but Jeep will need an answer soon with new electric options hitting the market over the next few years.
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Tesla deliveries are expected to decrease this quarter to levels not seen in more than two years. We have to go back to 2022 to see the delivery volume the automaker is expected to deliver.
Time to worry for Tesla shareholders?
Prediction markets are entering the game of setting expectations for Tesla’s quarterly deliveries.
These markets use financial incentives, similar to betting, to predict specific outcomes. They became extremely popular during the latest US elections and have since expanded to predict a lot more outcomes ranging from sports to business to virtually anything.
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Kalshi, one of the biggest prediction markets, has been running markets to predict Tesla’s quarterly deliveries that already gathered half a million in volumes.
It currently predicts that Tesla will deliver 359,000 vehicles in Q1 2025:
This would be down 7% year-over-year and a massive 27% down quarter-over-quarter.
In fact, you have to go back more than two years, Q3 2022, to get a quarter when Tesla delivered fewer vehicles than what is expected this quarter:
As we previously reported, Tesla’s sales are crashing in Europe this quarter – down by as much as 50%.
In China, Tesla’s most important market, sales are down slightly year-over-year.
The US is the most opaque market, and it will be the difference maker this quarter.
Electrek’s Take
This quarter would finally be the time to prove to Tesla shareholders that Elon is bad for Tesla. Unfortunately, they will blame the poor performance on the Model Y changeover, which will definitely impact Tesla negatively, but nowhere near that level.
I think it’s clear that the Elon effect is also working its magic here.
We know it since it’s not the first time Tesla has done a changeover. Now, it’s true that it’s the first time for a Model Y, which is Tesla’s best-selling vehicle, but the impact is more significant than when Tesla had factory shutdowns and supply chain issues last year.
The earnings are going to be even worse, but they will blame that on the new Model Y too.
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Rivian issued a recall for over 17,000 vehicles on Friday due to a headlight issue that only occurs in cold weather. The recall impacts certain 2025 R1S SUV and R1T electric pickup models. Luckily, it should be an easy fix.
Rivian issues a recall for 2025 R1S and R1T vehicles
In a letter sent to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), Rivian said it planned to recall 17,260 R1S and R1T vehicles.
The safety notice comes after the company found the headlights on certain 2025 models did not meet the requirements of Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS) number 108, “Lamps, Reflective Devices, and Associated Equipment.”
In cold weather, the headlight low beams might not illuminate once the vehicle is started. A message on the driver display will pop up, saying, “Low beam lights not working.” The issue only occurred in colder climates.
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Rivian said it’s unaware of any crashes, injuries, or fatalities related to the recall. The 2025 R1S and R1T models were built with incorrectly figured parts from its supplier between April 29, 2024, and February 03, 2025.
Rivian R1T (left) and R1S (right) electric vehicles (Source: Rivian)
For those impacted, Rivian will replace the headlight control module free of charge. Owner notification letters are expected to be mailed out on March 28, 2025.
If you have questions, you can contact Rivian’s customer service at 1-888-748-4261. Rivian’s recall number is FSAM-1612. You can also contact the NHTSA hotline at 888-327-4236 or visit NHTSA.gov for more information.
Production at Rivian’s Normal, IL plant (Source: Rivian)
The recall comes after Rivian posted its first positive gross profit in the fourth quarter, a big milestone as the EV maker aims to hit its next growth stage.
Rivian delivered 51,579 vehicles in 2024, but as it prepares to introduce its mass-market R2 electric SUV, the company expects a slight dip in 2025, forecasting between 46,000 and 51,000. A big part of this is due to plans to retool its Normal, IL manufacturing plant to prepare for the R2, which will launch in the first half of 2026. The midsize electric SUV will start at around $45,000, or almost half the R1S ($77,700) and R1T ($71,700).
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