Are you a fan of the old reliable or new weirdness? Do you go for a good, old-fashioned corny dog at the State Fair of Texas or do you seek out the new oddity, like this year’s Ox’cellent Cornbread Sliders or Deep Fried Carbonara?

Regardless of your taste, Week 7 of the college football season has you covered. If you like a nice blue-blood helmet game, the Red River Rivalry pits the preseason No. 1 team (Texas) against the current No. 6 (Oklahoma). Michigan heads to USC for a Rose Bowl-adjacent battle. Georgia plays Auburn! Florida plays Texas A&M! Plenty of big-name games everywhere you look!

The biggest game of the week, however, is Indiana at Oregon. Weird! Alabama at Missouri might be No. 2, and it’s possible that no game has more direct College Football Playoff implications than USF’s Friday evening visit to North Texas. An ambitious college football geek should head up to Denton before Red River!

Week 7 gives us both what we think we need and what we really, really want instead. Something for everyone. Here’s everything you need to know about another loaded weekend.

All times are Eastern; games are Saturday unless otherwise noted.

Fun new dishes

Helmet games are great. It’s nice heading into a given season with certain landmarks like OU-Texas that you know will draw attention. But there’s a buzz that comes with games of surprising gravitas, and three conferences will give us one of those this week. With assistance from the new food items at this year’s State Fair of Texas, let’s lean into all three.

The Lobster Three Ways of the Week (surprisingly fancy!)

No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Oregon and Dan Lanning have grown accustomed to this “big game” thing. This will be the eighth time the fourth-year head coach has led the Ducks into a top-10 vs. top-10 battle. They’re 4-3 in such games so far, with all the losses to eventual CFP finalists. Indiana, meanwhile, has played four such games ever. Half of them happened last season, and the next one the Hoosiers win will be the first. In terms of known gravitas, we know who has the advantage.

Granted, Oregon’s win at Penn State two weeks ago looks a little different after the Nittany Lions’ loss at winless UCLA, but it seemed to give us a pretty accurate impression of the Ducks: They’re super efficient with quarterback and current No. 2 Heisman betting favorite Dante Moore leading the show on offense, but they’re not incredibly explosive. The defense combines three-and-outs — they’ve forced them on 50.9% of possessions, third in the FBS — with elite big-play prevention. I mean, of course this is an awesome team: It has won 19 of 20 games!

The spotlight, then, is on Indiana. Can the Hoosiers perform better than they did at Ohio State (38-15 loss) or Notre Dame (27-17) last year? They haven’t really given us any reason to doubt them in 2025: They’re third in SP+; they’re first in success rate* on offense and second on defense; and they beat a current top-20 team (otherwise-unbeaten No. 17 Illinois) by 53 points three weeks ago.

(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth downs.)

The offense generates most of the headlines, with quarterback and No. 7 Heisman betting favorite Fernando Mendoza throwing to Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. and handing off to Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black. The Hoosiers have a lot of ways to stay on schedule, and they’ve done it better than anyone else in the sport thus far.

Aside from the occasional big-gainer to Cooper, explosiveness isn’t necessarily a strength here, and the two teams that kept the big plays tamped down — Old Dominion and Iowa — held them to 23.5 points per game and 5.6 yards per play.

The Hoosiers’ defense is the star of the show, though. Illinois scored 10 points at 3.6 yards per play against Indiana but has averaged 42.4 points and 7.0 yards per play against everyone else. Everywhere you look, Indiana has multiple stars, with ends Kellan Wyatt, Mikail Kamara and Stephen Daley; linebackers Isaiah Jones and Rolijah Hardy; and safeties Louis Moore and Amare Ferrell. Plus star corner D’Angelo Ponds is expected to play after missing time with injury.

The Big Stage Game is the only test Indiana didn’t pass last year, but the Hoosiers get another chance to show out Saturday. We know Oregon will.

Current line: Ducks -7.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 6.2 | FPI projection: Ducks by 5.2

The Meat Lovers Crunch Wrap Calzone of the Week (might be new and different, might taste like a typical calzone)
No. 8 Alabama at No. 14 Missouri (noon, ABC)

On the first Monday night of the 1975 season, Missouri went down to Birmingham and pummeled No. 2 Alabama, 20-7. Bama had won 22 straight regular-season games, but led by tailback Tony Galbreath, the Tigers rushed for 206 yards to Bama’s 31 and made a 20-0 halftime lead hold up with surprising ease. “They ran up and down the field as though they were playing a barber’s college,” Alabama coach Bear Bryant said. “They ate us on the line of scrimmage.”

The win assured Mizzou of something rare: a series lead on the Tide. The Tigers were 2-1 all time against Bama when they joined the SEC in 2012. They’re now 2-6. In five meetings as SEC mates, Bama has swept by an average score of 39-10. But Saturday will be the Tigers’ best shot at a win in 50 years.

Alabama has rebounded from a dismal Week 1 loss to Florida State, winning four straight and beating ranked opponents in the last two weeks. Quarterback Ty Simpson leads my Heisman horse race, and an inefficient run game has improved since Jam Miller‘s return from injury. But running isn’t how you beat the Mizzou defense. In two games against power-conference opponents (Kansas and South Carolina), the Tigers have allowed opposing running backs to average just 1.3 yards per carry, but they also gave up 10 completions of at least 20 yards. The Tigers have the best pass rush the Tide have faced, but if they can’t pressure Simpson, the dynamite receiver trio of Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams and Isaiah Horton (combined: 192.8 yards per game, 15.1 per catch) will do damage.

A Missouri win Saturday might end up looking a lot like the 1975 game, with the Tigers controlling the ground game (and the YAC battle) on offense and defense. So far, tackling Mizzou’s Ahmad Hardy has been just about the hardest task in college football. Hardy leads the nation with 730 rushing yards, and 460 of those have come after contact.

Hardy has had more carries of more than 25 yards (five) than carries with lost yardage (four), and 212-pound backup Jamal Roberts averages even more yards per carry (7.3) than Hardy (7.1).

Mizzou boasts plenty of physicality, but aside from occasional deep shots to receiver Marquis Johnson, this offense is based far more around efficiency than explosiveness. In the last couple of Bama games, however, it’s been chunk plays or nothing against the efficient Tide. Bama records almost no tackles for loss or sacks, but sacks are the primary way of stopping Missouri: The Tigers rank 95th in sack rate allowed. When upright, Beau Pribula completes 76% of his passes, keeps the chains moving and forces teams to endure further doses of Hardy and Roberts.

Current line: Bama -3.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 1.6 | FPI projection: Bama by 3.4

The Pop Rocks Margarita of the Week (let’s get silly and loud)
No. 24 USF at North Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN2)

The odds are in the American Conference’s favor at the moment. The Allstate Playoff Predictor currently gives six teams from the Group of 5 a 7% or greater chance of reaching the CFP, and four of those teams — Memphis (39.5%), North Texas (14.5%), USF (10.4%) and Tulane (7.7%) — are from the American. Spectacularly explosive Old Dominion (20.1%) and unbeaten UNLV (8.6%) could still take the mantle, but for now it’s the American’s show. And its No. 2 and No. 3 contenders face off Friday night before the first sellout crowd ever at DATCU Stadium.

USF has the résumé mid-majors dream of. After walloping last year’s G5 representative, Boise State, in Week 1, the Bulls took down Florida the next week. They couldn’t offer much resistance against Miami, but they’ve beaten two overwhelmed opponents by a combined 117-40 since. And their big-play capabilities are ridiculous, especially those of receivers Chas Nimrod and Keshaun Singleton (combined: 661 yards at 20.0 per catch). There’s a major all-or-nothing component to this offense — it’s 95th in success rate but fifth in yards per successful play — but the “all”s are spectacular. Defensively, it’s turnovers or bust: The Bulls have forced 11 of them. They can create some negative run plays, too, but their statistical profile is otherwise pretty underwhelming.

North Texas has its best defense in quite a while — potentially faint praise considering the Mean Green haven’t ranked higher than 105th in defensive SP+ since 2018 — but the offense is the show. It ranks ninth in points per drive with heavy efficiency, almost no turnovers (three in five games) and excellent red zone execution (10th in red zone TD rate). Backs Makenzie McGill II and Caleb Hawkins average 6.0 yards per carry over 21 carries per game, and quarterback Drew Mestemaker is completing 68% of his passes with no picks and almost no sacks. Even when they’re behind schedule, they’re not really behind schedule because Mestemaker catches them up. North Texas has scored at least 33 points in every game and has allowed more than 30 just once. That’s a pretty good combination, though USF is comfortably the best team the Mean Green have played to date.

Current line: UNT -1.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 6.6 | FPI projection: UNT by 0.8

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Reliable old standbys

The biggest games of the week might be a little strange and experimental, but there are plenty of comforting matchups to assure that you keep your bearings. I mean, does college football get any more reliable than OU vs. Texas, Georgia vs. Auburn or Ohio State vs. a solid-but-probably-not-good-enough Big Ten foe?

The Corny Dog of the Week (safe, reliable state fair fare)
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. Texas (3:30 p.m., ABC)

Red River is both one of the most even and one of the most momentum-based rivalries you’ll see. For Texas to win for the third time in four years, the Longhorns will have to endure a strange matchup of excellent defenses and incomplete offenses.

Points per drive
Texas: 63rd on offense, fifth on defense
Oklahoma: 48th on offense, second on defense

OU quarterback John Mateer is racing to return from recent hand surgery; he was listed as probable on this week’s initial injury report, which caused the betting line to move swiftly toward the Sooners. Backup Michael Hawkins Jr. was fine against an admittedly almost Division II-worthy Kent State defense last week, but even with Mateer healthy, OU has gone unbeaten because of its defense.

Texas’ Arch Manning has yet to play well against an SP+ top-100 defense, which is pretty scary considering OU’s currently ranks second. Manning has flashed moments of excellence with his legs, but he took six sacks against Florida last week, and his numbers when pressured are pretty dismal.

Florida’s pass rush ranks 75th in sack rate; Oklahoma’s ranks first. We can talk about the Sooners’ disappointing run game and whether either Mateer or Hawkins can find enough success against a strong Texas defense. But until Texas proves it can actually keep pressure off Manning — or Manning proves he can perform well under duress — I’m not sure anything else matters.

Current line: OU -1.5 (flipped from Texas -2.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 7.6 | FPI projection: Texas by 2.8

The Fried Mac ‘n’ Cheese Bites of the Week (intriguing at first, predictable in the end)
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois (noon, Fox)

Ohio State’s mission is to win, not to entertain. The Buckeyes have won their last three games by an average of 34-6, and their defense, first in SP+ last season, has grown even more suffocating. They rank first in points allowed per drive, and the next red zone touchdown they allow will be the first all year.

Illinois’ offense is hot, at least. Since their humiliation against Indiana, the Illini have responded with near perfection: Luke Altmyer has completed 81% of his passes for 718 yards in two games, with wideouts Hank Beatty and Collin Dixon doing loads of damage. Granted, Washington ranked first nationally in points per drive before playing Ohio State and managed just six points. But if Illinois can do just enough damage that OSU quarterback Julian Sayin has to force the issue a bit, we could learn something useful about the Buckeyes.

Ohio State’s run game isn’t nearly as dangerous as usual, but Sayin is completing 80% of his passes and never has to take any risks. Knowing the other team will never score, the Buckeyes can just wait opponents out, and eventually receivers Jeremiah Smith and/or Carnell Tate will break through and ice the game.

Current line: OSU -14.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 13.8 | FPI projection: OSU by 10.7

The Flamin’ Hot Cheetos Nachos of the Week (relatively predictable but could upset your stomach)
No. 10 Georgia at Auburn (7:30 p.m., ABC)

It’s danger time on the Plains. Auburn has lost 13 of 15 to Georgia and heads into this one having lost two in a row overall. The Tigers were competitive at both Oklahoma and Texas A&M because of strong defense but failed to even slightly protect Jackson Arnold (or persuade him to get the damn ball out of his hands faster). He was sacked 14 times in the two games, and Auburn scored a total of 27 points. Strangely, Georgia might offer a reprieve: The Dawgs rank just 115th in sack rate and 89th in yards allowed per dropback. They dominate against the run, but this might be Kirby Smart’s worst pass defense as a head coach or defensive coordinator.

Georgia’s offense moves efficiently but doesn’t make loads of big plays. The run game has been decent, but the Dawgs could be without both starting tackles — Monroe Freeling (ankle) and Micah Morris (back) are listed as questionable. Arnold might simply be broken, but it wouldn’t take too many decent pass plays to make this one uncomfortable for a Georgia team that really doesn’t want to suffer Loss No. 2 this early.

Current line: UGA -3.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 4.6 | FPI projection: UGA by 3.5

The Chopped Brisket Sandwich of the Week (beefy but lacking pizzazz)
Florida at No. 5 Texas A&M (7 p.m., ESPN)

Two weeks ago, the defensive coach in Mike Elko emerged. Fresh from a 41-40 track-meet win at Notre Dame, his Aggies established a far more conservative streak.

First three A&M games: 71.0 total points per game, 7.0 yards per play, 5.2 yards allowed per play

Last two games: 33.0 total points per game, 6.1 yards per play, 3.7 yards allowed per play

In their first three games, A&M ran the ball just 39% of the time. In wins over Auburn and Mississippi State, that surged to 63%. The Aggies took more time between plays too. On both offense and defense, they sacrificed aggression for control. Granted, this nearly backfired when they dominated Auburn but couldn’t pull away. But last week’s 31-9 pummeling of Mississippi State was their best overall performance of the season.

Now comes a Florida team that also played its best game a week ago. The Gators’ defense pummeled Arch Manning early and often, and quarterback DJ Lagway played by far his most relaxed and effective game of 2025. The Gators still didn’t run the ball that well, and that’s been the easier way to move against A&M, but if this is the new Florida, Texas might not be the only team it upsets.

Current line: A&M -7.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 10.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 6.7

The Red Velvet Cheesecake on a Stick of the Week (comforting and familiar, albeit in a confusing vessel)
No. 15 Michigan at USC (7:30 p.m., NBC)

Michigan and USC have played 11 times, and nine were in the greater Los Angeles area. Of course, eight of those were at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena; for just the second time, they’ll meet in USC’s L.A. Coliseum home.

After a bye week following the loss at Illinois, USC will define its season one way or the other playing Michigan and Notre Dame back-to-back. The Trojans’ offense still ranks first nationally in points per drive and yards per play, but the defense has slipped to 89th in rushing success rate allowed. You know what Michigan will do constantly if you can’t stop it? Run the ball. Justice Haynes has five 100-yard games in five tries.

Current line: USC -2.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 3.0 | FPI projection: USC by 4.8

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This week in the Big 12

Texas Tech’s recent levels of dominance could be taking some of the mystery out of the Big 12 title race — per SP+, the Red Raiders currently have a 38% title shot, and no one else is above 13%. But it’s still early. Four Big 12 teams are 2-0 in conference play, with another seven at 2-1 or 1-1. From those 11 teams, we get three head-to-head matchups Saturday evening.

Kansas at No. 9 Texas Tech (7:30 p.m., Fox)

Have we finally found a Texas Tech weakness? It took a few games. Red zone offense was a major issue against Houston last week — the Red Raiders scored TDs on just two of eight red zone trips, and they’re now 103rd in red zone touchdown rate for the season. That can cost you a game somewhere at some point, at least if you’re making fewer than eight trips.

Tech otherwise remains a juggernaut — top 10 in offensive and defensive success rate and top 15 on third downs on both sides of the ball with bigger big plays than its opponents. That doesn’t leave teams with many avenues for an upset. But KU’s defense is solid in the red zone, and quarterback Jalon Daniels escapes pressure beautifully. If he can make plays while Tech is kicking field goals, we could have a game.

Current line: Tech -14.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 15.4 | FPI projection: Tech by 7.0

No. 18 BYU at Arizona (8 p.m., ESPN2)

Arizona’s offense has been pretty mediocre this season, but the Wildcats are 4-1 because they’ve resurrected the Desert Swarm defense. They rank fourth in yards allowed per play, combining loads of negative run plays with loads of incompletions and interceptions. BYU freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has passed every test thus far, but if he’s ever going to look like a freshman, it will come against a defense like this.

Of course, BYU’s defense is equally good at forcing mistakes — the Cougars are 15th in stuff rate and third in interception rate — and while BYU has given up an increasing number of points in each game, Arizona has played only one top-50 defense, per SP+, and scored only 14 points against Iowa State.

Current line: BYU -1.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 3.5 | FPI projection: BYU by 5.1

No. 21 Arizona State at Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN)

Arizona State hasn’t lost to a Big 12 team in nearly a full calendar year, but the Sun Devils are almost an afterthought in the title race, because of both Texas Tech’s hot start and their own cold start. They’ve rebounded since a loss to Mississippi State, but with Utah and Tech in the next two weeks, they need to be close to a finished product.

ASU’s defense has evolved into a sharp, bend-don’t-break unit, pouncing on mistakes and preventing big plays, but Utah almost has a bend-don’t-break offense with heavy efficiency and almost no big plays. How does that play out? And with quarterback Sam Leavitt listed as doubtful to play, can ASU establish enough of a rhythm in the run game, where Utah has suffered some glitches this year?

Current line: Utah -5.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 10.8 | FPI projection: Utah by 5.3

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Week 7 chaos superfecta

We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number.

I feel as if we should claim an honorary victory for last week — we aimed to take down a Big Ten favorite and got one with the UCLA-Penn State game that I wasn’t nearly brave enough to add — but technically we failed and fell to 3-for-6 for the season. But the two-week losing streak ends here. SP+ says there’s only a 46% chance that No. 9 Texas Tech (83% win probability against Kansas), No. 11 LSU (78% against South Carolina), No. 12 Tennessee (80% against Arkansas) and No. 16 Notre Dame (89% against NC State) all win. Someone important is going down.

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Week 7 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

Rutgers at Washington (9 p.m., FS1). We’re putting this ridiculous long-distance matchup on a Friday night for the second straight year, but last year’s game was pretty awesome, and this year’s could be a track meet. Rutgers ranks 17th in points per drive but 99th in points allowed per drive; Washington ranks fourth and 81st, respectively. We love points on a Friday night.

Current line: UW -10.5 | SP+ projection: UW by 12.0 | FPI projection: UW by 7.5

Early Saturday

Pitt at No. 25 Florida State (noon, ESPN). FSU set the bar a little too high with the early win over Bama, but the Noles still have a 1-in-3 chance of finishing 9-3 or better, per SP+, so there’s still plenty to shoot for. Pitt, meanwhile, looked spectacular last week after handing the reins to true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel. A win in Tallahassee would make the Panthers sleeper ACC contenders.

Current line: FSU -9.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 3.8 | FPI projection: FSU by 8.1

UCF at Cincinnati (noon, FS1). Cincinnati has won four in a row since its season-opening loss to Nebraska, and the Bearcats are projected favorites in their next three. UCF produces some of the biggest big plays in the country, however, which makes it a serious candidate to pull a random upset at some point.

Current line: Cincy -10.5 | SP+ projection: Cincy by 9.2 | FPI projection: Cincy by 5.3

Louisiana at James Madison (noon, ESPN2). We’re gearing up for eight words I never thought I’d have a reason to type: an Old Dominion-James Madison game with playoff implications. That’s a week away, but first JMU’s dynamite defense has to deal with backs Bill Davis and Zylan Perry and an excellent Louisiana run game.

Current line: JMU -17.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 17.7 | FPI projection: JMU by 12.0

Washington State at No. 4 Ole Miss (12:45 p.m., SECN). OK, this probably isn’t one you’ll need to focus on for very long. But any excuse to watch Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss in action is a good one. Wazzu defensive end Isaac Terrell is worth the price of admission too.

Current line: Rebels -31.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 34.3 | FPI projection: Rebels by 34.7

Saturday afternoon

Arkansas at No. 12 Tennessee (4:15 p.m., SECN). The (interim) Bobby Petrino era begins again at Arkansas, and the Hogs will take their ultra-explosive offense to Knoxville to face a Tennessee team that has overachieved against offensive projections but underachieved against defensive projections in every game. I’ll be disappointed if this game produces under 65 points.

Current line: Vols -11.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 13.5 | FPI projection: Vols by 10.7

TCU at Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Fox). It’s danger time for Kansas State. The Wildcats have lost four games by a combined 13 points; they’re clearly competitive and solid, but they’re projected underdogs in their next three games. Without an immediate rebound, a frustrating season could become something far worse. TCU, meanwhile, remains in the Big 12 hunt but can’t afford a slipup after the Week 5 loss at Arizona State.

Current line: TCU -1.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 8.2 | FPI projection: TCU by 1.8

No. 22 Iowa State at Colorado (3:30 p.m., ESPN). This is a spectacularly backhanded compliment, but Colorado is a strong 2-4. The Buffaloes have been competitive in three of four losses and make more big plays than their opponents. Iowa State wins with efficiency but got gouged by Cincinnati’s big-play offense last week. This is probably a get-right game for the Cyclones, but there’s reason for paranoia.

Current line: ISU -2.5 (down from -4.5) | SP+ projection: ISU by 5.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 3.3

NC State at No. 16 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Peacock). Notre Dame has shifted into gear, overachieving against SP+ projections by 19.9 points per game during a three-game winning streak. The Irish can’t let up, but NC State can shift into Bully Mode and make life really physical and frustrating thanks to RB Hollywood Smothers and an aggressive run defense.

Current line: Irish -23.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 19.5 | FPI projection: Irish by 19.5

Nebraska at Maryland (3:30 p.m., BTN). Two 4-1 teams with very different vibes: Maryland was up 20-0 on Washington last week but collapsed and watched its unbeaten record disappear, while Nebraska handled its business against Michigan State and ranks in the top 25 in points scored and points allowed per drive. Can the Terps pull off an immediate rebound, or will NU’s push for a first 10-win season in 13 years continue?

Current line: NU -6.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 3.0 | FPI projection: NU by 4.1

Air Force at UNLV (3:30 p.m., CBSSN). Playing at Wyoming on a bed of hailstones sounds absolutely miserable, but UNLV survived the experience with relative ease, winning by 14. Now comes a visit from Air Force and new star quarterback Liam Szarka. The Falcons’ awful defense will probably prevent this from going down to the wire, but these two offenses are ridiculously fun to watch.

Current line: UNLV -7.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 6.7 | FPI projection: UNLV by 12.6

Navy at Temple (4 p.m., ESPN2). Temple hasn’t won more than three games in a season since 2019, but veteran head coach KC Keeler has the Owls at 3-2 and dreaming of a return to the postseason. Backs Jay Ducker and Hunter Smith could give unbeaten Navy fits, though it’s fair to assume Navy quarterback Blake Horvath and dual-threat WR Eli Heidenreich (413 receiving yards, 232 rushing yards) will give the Owls’ defense even more problems.

Current line: Navy -9.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 13.2 | FPI projection: Navy by 2.5

Virginia Tech at No. 13 Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., ACCN). Following the Week 3 upset of Clemson, Georgia Tech underachieved against SP+ projections twice in a row. After a bye-week refresh, it hosts an interim-coached Virginia Tech team that has started to run the ball and rush the passer well but will probably suffer too many glitches for an upset bid.

Current line: GT -14.5 | SP+ projection: GT by 16.8 | FPI projection: GT by 9.4

Northwestern at Penn State (3:30 p.m., FS1). After the worst and most unexpected loss of the James Franklin era, Penn State tries to get right against Northwestern before a rugged three-game stretch — at Iowa, at Ohio State, Indiana at home — either salvages or further wrecks the season.

Current line: PSU -21.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 21.2 | FPI projection: PSU by 16.9

Saturday evening

South Carolina at No. 11 LSU (7:45 p.m., SECN). Maybe the biggest now-or-never game of a week full of them. South Carolina fell off course with losses to Vanderbilt and Missouri and is a projected underdog in the next five games; the Gamecocks still have LaNorris Sellers and Dylan Stewart, though, and they will remain major upset threats. LSU, meanwhile, got a bye week after losing to Ole Miss to fix whatever’s wrong with the offense; with trips to Vanderbilt, Alabama and Oklahoma remaining, the Tigers can’t afford a home upset.

Current line: LSU -9.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 12.1 | FPI projection: LSU by 6.3

Iowa at Wisconsin (7 p.m., FS1). Iowa is eight points from an unbeaten record but is 3-2 instead. That’s more than Wisconsin can say, though. The Badgers showed some brief life after handing the QB reins to Southern Illinois transfer Hunter Simmons last week, but they still lost to Michigan by two touchdowns and have been outscored by 55 points against three power-conference opponents.

Current line: Iowa -3.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 6.0 | FPI projection: Iowa by 3.1

Late Saturday

New Mexico at Boise State (9:45 p.m., FS1). Jason Eck and his super-underdog Lobos couldn’t get the job done at San José State last week, and their run defense is shaky enough that Boise State should be able to feast on the ground. UNM is crafty, however, avoiding negative plays and going for it constantly on fourth downs. If BSU is looking ahead to next week’s UNLV game, the Lobos could strike.

Current line: BSU -16.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 13.3 | FPI projection: BSU by 9.4

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Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

Division III: No. 7 Wisconsin-Platteville at No. 17 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., local streaming). Another trip to the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference? You’re damn right! Conference play began last week with two awesome ranked-versus-ranked battles, and we get another one with quarterback Nathan Uselding and Platteville heading to River Falls. The host Falcons dropped a heartbreaker in Oshkosh last week, and it’s hard to come back from starting 0-2 when you have a seven-game conference schedule.

SP+ projection: UWP by 6.4.

FCS: Alabama State at No. 14 Jackson State (3:30 p.m., ESPNU). We could have a pretty dynamite Celebration Bowl this year, with the MEAC’s NC Central and the SWAC’s Jackson State and Alabama State all 31st or better in FCS SP+. JSU and ASU meet in Jackson on Saturday. A dynamite run game led by Ahmad Miller and Travis Terrell Jr. (combined: 150 rushing yards per game, 8.1 per carry) could give JSU a slight edge, but ASU QB Andrew Body is an impressive dual threat.

SP+ projection: JSU by 7.6.

FCS: No. 9 Southern Illinois at No. 1 North Dakota State (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). On one hand, this is a top-10 matchup, and those are always worth tracking. On the other hand, NDSU has been head and shoulders above everyone else in the FCS this season — shocking, right? — and I’m not sure even a top-10 team can keep up in Fargo. SIU quarterback DJ Williams is another super-fun dual threat, though.

SP+ projection: NDSU by 20.3.

NEW YORK — Twenty-four hours after launching one of the most important home runs of his career, with the kind of power display very few people on Earth could muster, Aaron Judge on Wednesday night continued an October tradition going on a decade. Eight times the New York Yankees have reached the postseason with Judge powering the lineup. And eight times a dejected Judge, with the disappointment still raw, has had to reflect on a season without a World Series title.

“It’s what you play for,” Judge said after the Yankees’ Game 4 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Division Series. “You play to win. And when you don’t win, it’s not a good year.”

Individually, from Opening Day through the final postseason out, it was Judge’s best year. During the regular season, the reigning AL MVP made a strong case to win the award a third time by leading the major leagues with a .331 batting average — 20 points better than anyone else’s — and mashing 53 home runs with a 1.144 OPS. He followed it with his best playoff showing. Judge went 13-for-26 (.500) with a 1.273 OPS in New York’s seven postseason games. He collected seven RBIs and four walks, and had multiple hits in every game but one.

The year helped cement Judge’s place among Yankees greats. He passed Yogi Berra and Joe DiMaggio on the franchise’s all-time home run list into fourth place. He became the fourth player ever with four 50-plus home run seasons. His 53 home runs were the most ever for a batting champion. He set the AL record for intentional walks with 36. This month, he became the sixth player to hit .500 or better in a postseason with at least 20 at-bats. He did it all while playing through a flexor strain in his right elbow that sent him to the injured list in late July.

But a World Series title, the crowning achievement that all of his peers in the Yankees pantheon accomplished, eludes the 6-foot-7 right fielder.

“They’ll probably have a statue out there for him eventually,” Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodón told ESPN. “And I feel like before it’s all over, for him, it’ll only be right to win at least one World Series for him. I think his legacy would be pretty set in stone if he won one here.”

It is easy to take Judge’s greatness for granted. The reality is his peak will not last for much longer. Time catches up to everyone, even the most elite of athletes, and the pressure is on the Yankees to not waste Judge’s prime.

“I’m confident we’ll break through, and I have been every year, and I believe in so many of the people in that room,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “That hasn’t changed. The fire hasn’t changed. It’s hard to win the World Series. Been chasing it all my life.”

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ON APRIL 26, a Sunday, Judge will turn 34 years old. The Yankees are scheduled to complete a three-game series against the Astros in Houston that day. How they will look is anyone’s guess. Several players will reach free agency the day after the World Series ends. Trading other players is certainly possible. The Yankees’ cornerstones will remain in place, but general manager Brian Cashman has important moves to make.

Judge’s own status isn’t 100% clear. After Wednesday’s loss, Judge did not dismiss the possibility of undergoing surgery on his injured elbow. The most drastic option — Tommy John surgery — would knock him out for most, if not all, of next season. The likelier option is that Judge will rehab the elbow without a procedure.

The Yankees have reached the postseason in eight of Judge’s nine full seasons in the majors. The only miss was 2023, when Judge was out of action for nearly two months with a torn ligament in his right big toe. Last winter, after their first World Series appearance in 15 years, the Yankees pivoted when Juan Soto signed with the Mets and built a deeper roster — one that lasted just a week in October.

Giving themselves another chance to crack a 16-year championship drought starts with transactions made in the coming months. This offseason, the Yankees are expected to have at least 10 players hit free agency. Those players combined to make nearly $70 million of the Yankees’ more than $300 million payroll in 2025.

One person who is expected to return: Boone. The manager signed a two-year contract extension through the 2027 season in February.

“I’m under contract, so I don’t expect anything,” Boone said.

What can we expect from the rest of the roster?

The starting rotation: This is one group that doesn’t need a significant addition.

New York should boast one of the best rotations in the majors next season with Gerrit Cole slated to return from Tommy John surgery sometime during the first half. The projected Opening Day starting five without him is strong: Max Fried, Rodón, Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil and Will Warren. Clarke Schmidt, who had Tommy John surgery in July, could join the group by the end of the season.

The Yankees have a few prospects who could graduate to the majors at some point in 2026 — Carlos Lagrange and Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz top the list — and they could add a veteran starter or two for depth after Fried, Rodón, and Warren handled the largest workloads of their careers and Gil didn’t resemble the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year upon returning from a lat injury.

The bullpen: This is another matter. Right-handers Devin Williams, Luke Weaver and Jonathan Loáisiga, whose $5 million team option will be declined, are headed to free agency. Left-hander Tim Hill could join them if the Yankees decline his $3 million club option. The foundation for a strong bullpen is in place with David Bednar at closer, Camilo Doval in a setup role, and Fernando Cruz as an effective fireman, but the group, which struggled throughout 2025, will look different in 2026.

The outfield: Assuming he’s ready for the start of the season, Judge will continue locking down right field. Elsewhere, there is uncertainty. Cody Bellinger, who became the team’s every-day left fielder at full strength, will opt out of his contract, a source confirmed to ESPN, after an impressive season in the Bronx, and center fielder Trent Grisham will become a free agent for the first time after a career year.

“Two guys that had incredible years,” Judge said. “It was fun to watch them. Fun to learn from them. And hopefully we can run them back. We’ll see what happens.”

The Yankees paying market value for both players to return is a long shot. Jasson Dominguez, who lost regular playing time down the stretch, gives the Yankees a far less expensive option with potential for improvement, but his defense and struggles hitting right-handed against left-handed pitchers were issues in his first full major league season. Prospect Spencer Jones, who hit 35 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A, is another in-house option who could be added to the mix.

The infield: Anthony Volpe has not approached the expectations he carried when he was named the Yankees’ Opening Day starting shortstop as a rookie in 2023. The streaky former top prospect has a .662 career OPS that ranks 102nd out of 103 players with at least 1,500 plate appearances since then. His .222 batting average and .283 on-base percentage rank last.

This year, he improved his slugging, but regressed in just about every other category. He was overmatched in the ALDS, going 1-for-15 with 11 strikeouts in the four games. His defense also declined: Two years after winning a Gold Glove, Volpe ranked 11th in defensive runs saved and 17th in outs above average among MLB shortstops this season.

However, Volpe, 24, played with a small labrum tear in his left shoulder for most of the season and had at least two cortisone shots to treat the pain. After Wednesday’s loss, Volpe said he didn’t know if he would have offseason surgery.

Boone and Cashman continued to adamantly back him this season — Cashman in September said he still views Volpe as the Yankees’ shortstop of the future — but he lost playing time to Jose Caballero when he struggled in September.

Caballero, acquired at the trade deadline, is the Yankees’ other internal option at shortstop. Top prospect George Lombard reached Double-A this season, and isn’t part of the equation for 2026.

Veterans Paul Goldschmidt and Amed Rosario are free agents. Goldschmidt, 38, was revered in the Yankees’ clubhouse for his professionalism and presence, but a reunion is unlikely; Ben Rice figures to become the every-day first baseman next season. Rosario, who was effective in his role against left-handed pitching, brought a spark and seamlessly fit into the clubhouse after being acquired at the trade deadline. The Yankees could pursue re-signing him to play third base and second base against lefties.

Catcher: Like Volpe, Austin Wells regressed in 2025, his second full season, but the Yankees’ more pressing problem was having three left-handed catchers — Wells, Rice and J.C. Escarra — on the roster for most of the season and in the postseason. With Rice’s likely move to first base, they could bring in a righty to platoon with Wells, who was slightly better against lefties in 2025 but significantly better against righties in 2024. Three-time All-Star J.T. Realmuto, a right-handed hitter, will headline the short list of free agent catchers this winter.

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CHANCES ARE THE Yankees will field a playoff contender in 2026. They have not finished below .500 since 1992. They have reached the postseason in 26 of the past 31 years.

But success is measured differently in the Bronx. Winning the World Series is more difficult than ever. The postseason — now with 12 entrants — features too much randomness to expect to pop champagne after the final game every year. But dismissing the Yankees’ 16-year title drought — the second-longest in franchise history — as simply the product of bad luck does not square with other teams’ successes.

Eight AL teams, including the Yankees, have reached the World Series since 2010. Four have gone that far multiple times: The Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals twice, the Texas Rangers three times, and the Houston Astros four times. Four AL teams have won at least one World Series: The Red Sox (twice), the Royals, the Astros (twice) and the Rangers.

The Yankees are 19-6 against the AL Central, a division with four of the six smallest markets in the AL, and 13-27 against the AL East and AL West in the postseason since Judge’s playoff debut in 2017.

Winning the 28th World Series in franchise history will undoubtedly require handling heavyweights in October. The time to accomplish the feat with Judge — and avoid having him go down as the greatest Yankee never to win a title — is ticking. Next August will mark the 10th anniversary of his first major league game. He is under contract through 2031, his age-39 season. There are only so many prime Judge years left.

“Every year is different just based on how it goes,” Judge said. “But I think the feeling’s still the same if you didn’t win.”

Can a superstar still be a breakout player?

We ask because Vegas Golden Knights center Jack Eichel looks like he’ll obliterate his career high in goals (36) while skating with Ivan Barbashev and the newly acquired Mitch Marner this season — a line with incredible chemistry already at the start of the season.

But ultimately, a superstar can’t be a breakout player. That’s reserved for players who are known but not yet household names. Or players we’ve been waiting to see blossom since their draft year. Or the rookies embarking on their first full season of service, ready to make an unexpected impact.

Here are 30 NHL players poised for a breakout in 2025-26, organized into tiers that explain the circumstances surrounding their potential emergence. Enjoy!

Jump to a tier:
New scenery
New linemates
Young star to superstar
The wait is over
Rookie sensations

Tier 1: New scenery

These players switched teams and could see their stock rise with new scenery.

Matias Maccelli is not Mitch Marner, nor is he expected to suddenly become a 100-point winger because he’s helping to replace Marner in Toronto.

But the 24-year-old former Utah forward, who was a frequent healthy scratch with the Mammoth last season, has a top-line role next to Auston Matthews. If he can be the playmaker he was two seasons ago in Arizona and retain this spot, Maccelli should clear his previous career high in points (57) even if he doesn’t reach the offensive heights of Marner’s years with the Leafs.

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The Rangers didn’t want to pay Miller for potential, so they traded the restricted free agent to Carolina, where he signed an eight-year, $60 million deal.

Outside of Florida, no other NHL team has been as adept at leveling up acquired defensemen from other organizations — a credit to coach Rod Brind’Amour’s system and the work of assistant coach Tim Gleason, whose focus is on the blue line.

Miller’s offensive game dropped sharply over the past two seasons. He’ll be positioned to find it again in Carolina — and fulfill the rest of his potential.

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Peterka landed on fans’ radars via NHL trade deadline boards, as the pending restricted free agent’s name was circulated last season. Now, fans know him as one of the most significant acquisitions of the nascent Utah Mammoth, who traded Josh Doan and Michael Kesselring to Buffalo for Peterka, 23, before signing him to a five-year, $38 million contract this offseason.

Peterka already had a plum gig in Buffalo, skating next to star center Tage Thompson. How much higher can Peterka’s numbers climb on a line with the explosive Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther on Utah’s top line?

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GM Bill Zito has been fond of Tarasov’s potential since Zito’s time as an assistant general manager of the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Tarasov was the primary backup to Elvis Merzlikins for the past two seasons before his rights were traded to the Panthers in June.

The Stanley Cup champs lost Vítek Vanecek to Utah in free agency, and traded Spencer Knight to Chicago last season, creating a need to find a backup for and potential successor to Sergei Bobrovsky. Enter Tarasov, who goes from the 24th team in five-on-five defense to the fourth-best squad in the NHL.

If it’s ever going to happen for Tarasov, it’ll happen in Florida behind that system and with Roberto Luongo’s goaltending department to rely on.

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When asked about what he wants people to say about him after Year 1 in Philly, Zegras told ESPN: “I want them to go from saying ‘he’s good at hockey’ to ‘he’s a hockey player.'”

Having the support and structure of coach Rick Tocchet should help. But Zegras said to recapture the magic he had when he started his career in Anaheim, he needs to have fun again.

Playing center on a line with Matvei Michkov would help him find his hockey joie de vivre.

Tier 2: New sidekicks

These players could thrive with new linemates.

Benson played a bit with Tage Thompson last season in Buffalo, but is expected to start the season with the Sabres’ top offensive player and Josh Norris, the center they acquired from the Ottawa Senators for Dylan Cozens last season.

The results last season were promising for Benson, 20, entering his third NHL season. If he earns the right to replace Peterka with Thompson, Benson could really pop offensively this season.

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Carlsson appeared in this tier last season, but he is here again thanks to Chris Kreider, who was acquired from the New York Rangers in June, waiving his trade protection to join the Ducks. He had 326 goals and 256 points in 883 career games with the Blueshirts, but that output cratered last season because of injuries: just 22 goals and 8 assists in 68 games.

A relatively healthy Kreider, 34, could have an impact on both ends of the ice for Carsson, a 6-3 center who had 20 goals and 25 assists in 76 games for Anaheim last season, his second after being selected second overall in 2023.

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Chris Kreider’s loss is Will Cuylle’s gain. Cuylle, 23, moved up to the Rangers’ top line this season with new captain J.T. Miller and Mika Zibanejad, Kreider’s longtime linemate.

Cuylle had 20 goals and 25 assists in 82 games last season, playing the kind of blunt physical style that immediately endeared him to fans in his first two NHL seasons. That would seem to fit well with Miller’s production as a top-line center.

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Not many players finished stronger than rookie Goncalves last season. The rookie had 18 points in his final 33 games in 2024-25, and then added four more points in five playoff games for Tampa Bay.

He has earned the right to see copious amounts of time with Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel on the team’s second line this season. In limited minutes together last season, that trio generated a 63% expected goals rate.

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With Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov out for considerable periods of time, the Panthers will look for some offensive solutions from within.

One of them will be Samoskevich, the 22-year-old winger drafted 24th in 2021.

He had 15 goals and 16 assists in 72 games last season for the Stanley Cup champions, skating 13:19 per game. Already, he had two assists on opening night for Florida.

Seeing him have an increased role — and more famous linemates — isn’t out of the question with the short-handed Panthers.

Tier 3: Young star to superstar

You might already know these names. Get ready to hear them a lot more.

Dorofeyev was already slated for this tier before his opening night hat trick against the Los Angeles Kings. But that effort underscored what the 24-year-old can bring to the Golden Knights this season after breaking out with 35 goals in 82 games during 2025-26.

He’s one of the purest shooters on the roster, with a 13.8% shooting percentage on 254 shots last season.

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Gauthier goes from the rookie tier to closing in on stardom with the Ducks this season. He had 20 goals and 24 assists in 82 games last season, almost all of them at even strength.

With increased power-play time and a more effective man advantage — Anaheim was a league-worst 11.8% on the power play last season — those numbers could increase dramatically.

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“Who is Jackson LaCombe?” was one of the most frequently asked questions from casual NHL fans in the past few months, after his surprise invite to the U.S. Olympic Hockey Orientation Camp and his signing an eight-year, $72 million contract extension earlier this month.

After this season, everyone might know his name: The 24-year-old defenseman had 12 goals and 29 assists in 75 games last season. Though he spent the majority of his time with bruising veteran Radko Gudas, it’d be fun to see him have more time next to fellow youngster Olen Zellweger this season.

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Perfetti is our only holdover from last season’s third tier. His season was impressive, with 18 goals and 32 assists in 82 games for the NHL’s best regular-season team. But he hadn’t quite reached the ubiquity of a true breakout yet.

His season has gotten off to a bumpy start, as Perfetti opens the campaign on injured reserve because of an ankle injury. But when he returns, he should be on the Jets’ second scoring line.

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Stankoven was the key player coming back to Carolina from Dallas in the Mikko Rantanen trade. Stankoven had shown to be a tenacious, if undersized, forward for the Stars after scoring 12 goals during his rookie season.

The Hurricanes are hoping he can fill a critical hole in their lineup at second-line center.

The addition of Nikolaj Ehlers on the Canes’ top line means that Andrei Svechnikov will shift down to the second line, likely across from promising winger Jackson Blake. If Stankoven clicks with them, it’s good news for Carolina and for those waiting for the 22-year-old forward’s true breakout.

Tier 4: The wait is over

Players we’ve been waiting to see break out that finally will.

At some point, Clarke is a going to force the Kings to take the training wheels off him. The 6-2 defenseman, drafted eighth overall in 2021, had 33 points in 78 games last season in 16:17 of average ice time.

He was on the plus side of shot attempts, shots created and expected goals percentage relative to his teammates last season. He’s always been the future of their blue line. Increasingly, that future is now.

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Jackets fans have anticipated the moment when Jet Greaves takes flight and takes over the Columbus crease from incumbent Elvis Merzlikins. He was brilliant in 11 games last season, going 7-2-2 with a .938 save percentage and 14.5 (!) goals saved above expected.

He got the opening start for Columbus this week. It could be the first of many this season for the 24-year-old, who signed with the Jackets in 2022 as an undrafted free agent.

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Kasper was set up for success in his rookie season, spending a good portion of his season (273 minutes) with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond on the team’s top line. For an encore, Kasper will be asked to drive his own line this season, potentially in the middle of Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane.

That line actually produced strong defensive results (1.2 goals against per 60 minutes) last season to go along with its offensive pop.

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Blackhawks fans probably exhaled a bit — as did a certain Chicago center drafted first overall in 2023 — when Nazar rolled to nine points in his last eight games and then 12 points in Team USA’s history-making win at the IIHF world championships.

Connor Bedard needs all the help he can get. Nazar enters the 2025-26 season as the team’s No. 2 center, driving a line that can help take the pressure off the phenom in the Windy City.

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Savoie was acquired from the Buffalo Sabres in July 2024 in the Ryan McLeod trade, and percolated with the Bakersfield Condors last season.

As the Oilers seek low-cost, high-talent players to populate around Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, Savoie fits the template after a solid playmaking in the AHL.

He was drafted in 2022. This is finally the moment for the rookie make his mark after only playing five NHL games before this season.

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Overlooked thanks to the Calder-nominated season from first overall pick Macklin Celebrini was an outstanding rookie campaign from his linemate Smith. The fourth overall pick in 2023, Smith had 45 points (18 goals, 27 assists) in 74 games for the Sharks, skating to a minus-15.

They should pair up again on the Sharks’ top line. Given the expectations around Celebrini taking another leap in points production, Smith should jump right with him.

Tier 5: Rookie sensations

First-year players who aren’t waiting for their breakout.

Once the goalie of the future in Nashville, the Sharks acquired Askarov in August 2024 as their new hope between the pipes. The majority of his action was with the AHL Barracuda last season, but the 13 games he played in San Jose were sold: Askarov was the only Sharks goalie to finish on the positive side of goals saved above expected outside of Mackenzie Blackwood.

It’s expected that the 23-year-old rookie could get most of the starts for coach Ryan Warsofsky’s team this season.

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The preseason favorite to win the Calder Trophy, Demidov arrived in the NHL late last season after having been a human highlight reel in the KHL.

A creative puck-handler and explosive offensive talent, the Canadiens are relying on him to provide goal-scoring spark for a team that was 17th in goals per game last season.

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The 24-year-old made his NHL debut last postseason, appearing in four playoff games for the Hurricanes.

At 6-3 and around 220 pounds, he’s a ferocious hitter who could become one of the league’s best young defenseman if his offensive game blossoms.

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A terrific puck-moving defenseman with a great hockey IQ. The anticipation is that Buium, 19, could become the Wild’s power-play quarterback before too long.

The Wild have him partnered up with steady veteran Jared Spurgeon to start.

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If he sticks around rather than being sent back to the OHL, Parekh has the stuff to be one of the best young offensive defensemen in the NHL.

And one hopes he does stick around, because what does a defenseman who had 107 points in 61 games last season have left to prove?

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Snuggerud gave the Blues a nice preview at the end of last season with four points in seven games after his career at the University of Minnesota was over.

The son of former NHLer Dave Snuggerud, the playmaking winger should bolster the Blues’ secondary scoring.

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The 6-4 defenseman is going to have a big role this season in Chicago, playing top-pairing minutes and getting a chance to run the Blackhawks’ top power play.

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The first overall pick in the 2025 NHL draft, Schaefer is an elite offense-driving defenseman with his passing and his skating. The fact that he’s going to bring a bit of charisma to the Islanders too is the cherry on top.

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The 24-year-old earned a spot here not only for some tantalizing moments as a Canuck, but for his opening night shutout in Madison Square Garden.

Silovs was named one of Team Latvia’s first six players for the Olympic Winter Games Milano Cortina 2026.