The scale and complexity of an unprecedented attack by Hamas militants on Israel has raised questions about whether the Palestinian group received direct support from Iran, analysts have said.
There is also a chance this is only “phase one” in a wider offensive that seeks to draw in Palestinian militants on the West Bank and Iranian-backed Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon.
A rapid reassessment will doubtless be under way about the threat posed by Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, and about the group’s intentions.
The Reuters news agency reported that the militants had conducted a careful campaign of deception for the previous two years to catch Israel off-guard.
The Israeli intelligence and security services were blindsided by the multi-pronged assault, using bulldozers, hang gliders, motorbikes and rockets.
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Even without evidence of a direct Iranian hand, the bloody carnage has triggered a new period of turmoil in Israel and Gaza, which could yet lead to unintended escalation.
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2:45
Israel-Gaza: The human cost on both sides
Image: A map of some of the areas near Gaza where there have been clashes between Israel and Hamas
The United States does not seem to be taking any chances, quickly announcing the deployment of a carrier strike group, led by the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford to the Eastern Mediterranean.
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Jack Waitling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said intelligence assessment is about planning contingencies against the most likely course of action and also the most dangerous.
“The fact that this took everyone by surprise means there is uncertainty as to what the most likely trajectory is,” he said.
“But the most dangerous is that this is the first phase in an escalating conflict involving other actors including Iran and Hezbollah and so those are contingencies against which steps are being taken to deter further escalation because it has to be planned against irrespective of whether that is actually what is likely to transpire.”
Image: Smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Gaza
Image: Palestinians inspect a mosque destroyed by Israeli strikes on Gaza City’s Shati refugee camp. Pic: Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
One thing is certain, Israeli and western intelligence services will be looking for any evidence that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) played a part in the atrocities beyond a long-standing relationship between Tehran and Hamas of financial and military support.
Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, a spokesman for the Israel Defence Forces, said on Monday: “Iran is a major player but we can’t yet say if it was involved in the planning or training.”
This view was echoed by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
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1:11
Moments after rocket hits Israeli city
Image: Vehicles lay abandoned outside a music festival in Israel following an attack by Hamas
If evidence is found that Iran was directly involved, Israel would be compelled to respond – though there are different potential layers of retaliation, from a direct military attack to more deniable missile strikes, cyber attacks and assassinations.
The Israeli authorities have previously always erred on the side of deniability when it comes to targeting Iran as both sides know that an open war between the two states would plunge the world into a new, even deadlier era of turmoil.
As for Hamas, the Palestinian militant group has shown itself to be capable of coordinating attacks on a scale never seen before, from the land, sea and the air, as well as massing a huge arsenal of rockets and drones without Israel noticing.
It could, as the group claimed, have orchestrated the assault on its own, potentially in a bid to ignite a wider regional uprising against Israel.
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1:28
‘This has been Israel’s 9/11’
This means the top priority for the Israeli military in the coming days, weeks, months and possibly years will be to destroy the Hamas leadership and cut off all armed support.
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Israeli officials describe the attack on Saturday as their country’s 9/11 – a reference to the al Qaeda atrocities against the United States on 11 September 2001.
Back then, the US response was to launch a “war of terror” to take out al Qaeda.
At least 34 people – including two children – have been killed after a Russian missile attack on a Ukrainian city.
The country’s state emergency service said another 117 people have been injured, with 15 children among them, in the northeastern city of Sumy.
Ukraine’sforeign ministry later added that one of the children injured was a baby girl born this year, saying “even newborns are targets for Russia’s crimes”.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy also shared videos on Telegram of the aftermath of the attack on social media, showing dead bodies in the middle of a city street near a destroyed bus.
Image: Two children were killed in the strike. Pic: State Emergency Service of Ukraine
Russia ‘dragging out this war’ – Zelenskyy
The Ukrainian president said on social media “only scoundrels can act like this” and that “tough reaction from the world is needed”.
“Russiawants exactly this kind of terror and is dragging out this war,” he added. “Without pressure on the aggressor, peace is impossible.
“Talks have never stopped ballistic missiles and air bombs. We need the kind of attitude towards Russia that a terrorist deserves.”
Andriy Kovalenko, a security official who runs Ukraine’s centre for countering disinformation, noted the strike came after a visit to Moscow by US envoy Steve Witkoff.
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2:21
From Saturday: Putin meets Trump envoy for talks
US official: ‘This is wrong’
Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump‘s envoy for the Ukraine war, said the attack crosses “any line of decency” and that “there are scores of civilian dead and wounded”.
He added: “As a former military leader, I understand targeting and this is wrong. It is why President Trump is working hard to end this war.”
In response to Mr Kellogg, Mr Zelenskyy’s communications adviser, Dmytro Lytvynm asked: “Don’t you think it’s time to smack the Moscow mule across the nose with a 2X4?”.
Later, US secretary of state Marco Rubio said the strike was “horrifying” and a “tragic reminder of why President Trump and his Administration are putting so much time and effort into trying to end this war and achieve durable peace”.
Image: Pic: AP
UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy added he was “horrified” by Russia’s “barbaric strike” on Sumy, and called for an “immediate ceasefire”.
Meanwhile, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said “cruelty struck again” and called the strike a “blatant violation of international law”.
It came hours before a separate Russian strike killed three people in the central district of the southern city of Kherson.
The local governor, Oleksandr Prokudin, said a 68-year-old woman was injured and died in hospital and that a 48-year-old man also died after “the occupiers dropped an explosive device from a drone”.
A 62-year-old woman was also killed “as a result of the shelling”.
On Saturday, a Russian guided bomb hit a house in the northeastern Ukrainian town of Kupiansk on Saturday, injuring four people.
Governor Oleh Syniehubov said on Telegram that three others could be trapped under rubble.
It comes after Russian diplomats accused each other of violating a tentative US-brokered deal to pause strikes on energy infrastructure.
“The Ukrainians have been attacking us from the very beginning, every passing day, maybe with two or three exceptions,” Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said, adding that Moscow would provide a list of Kyiv’s attacks from the past three weeks.
Andrii Sybiha, his Ukrainian counterpart, dismissed the claim saying on Saturday that Russia launched “almost 70 missiles, over 2,200 [exploding] drones, and over 6,000 guided aerial bombs at Ukraine, mostly at civilians” since agreeing to the limited pause on strikes.
He may not be the one to sit down with Vladimir Putin, but Keith Kellogg, President Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, summed up the horror of Sunday’s ballistic missile strikes on Sumy succinctly.
“Today’s Palm Sunday attack by Russianforces on civilian targets in Sumy crosses any line of decency,” he said.
“As a former military leader, I understand targeting and this is wrong.”
He does not seem to care if he alienates his US counterpart, who has been strangely predisposed to fawn over him to date.
Perhaps he is raising the stakes as high as he can to illustrate his strength of hand: Strikes on civilians damage Ukrainianmorale – even if they are hardly battlefield wins – and on the battlefield, he is pushing ahead and does not want to stop.
Image: At least 34 people, including two children, were killed in Sumy on Sunday. Pic: Reuters
Perhaps he knows that if he keeps up his military momentum, President Trump will tire of a conflict he realises he cannot solve and let the matter slip while staying true to his MAGA-economic priorities by letting funds for Ukraine dry up.
Perhaps he thinks President Trump is so keen on a rapprochement with Russia, on the big Putin-Trump bilateral, that the details, the civilian deaths along the way, will all be by-the-by when that long-sought photo-op finally happens.
Whatever it is, President Putin seems to be in no rush to get things settled.
His spokesman told a Russian state reporter on Sunday that talks were under way at several levels but that “of course, it is impossible to expect any instant results”.
Withdrawing his troops would get instant results. But that is not what Vladimir Putin wants.
His war economy is working for him, and he has the attention of the one country he considers a worthy adversary, the United States.
In the meantime, this attack reinforces why President Zelenskyy’s plea for air defence systems is his top priority. And why a ceasefire cannot come soon enough.
An Israeli air strike has hit a hospital in Gaza City, with pictures showing the devastating aftermath at some of its wards.
The al-Ahli Arab Baptist Hospitalwas hit by multiple missiles, the Hamas-run health ministry said, adding hundreds of patients, medical personnel, and their companions were on site at the time of the attack.
It said the Israeli army had targeted what it described as “one of the oldest and most vital healthcare institutions operating in the GazaStrip”.
One patient died during the evacuation as medical staff were unable to provide urgent care, it said.
No other casualties have been reported.
Image: Pic: AP
The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said they “struck a command and control centre used by Hamas” in the hospital.
“The compound was used by Hamas terrorists to plan and execute terror attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF troops,” they said in a statemement.
“Prior to the strike, steps were taken to mitigate harm to civilians or to the hospital compound, including issuing advanced warnings in the area of the terror infrastructure, the use of precise munitions, and aerial surveillance.
“The Hamas terrorist organisation systematically violates international law while using civilian infrastructure, brutally exploiting the civilian population as a human shield for its terrorist activities.”
The health facility’s director, Dr Fadel Naim, said they were warned of the attack beforehand.
Image: A closer look at what was the hospital’s outpatient and laboratory wards. Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
Hamas has denied using hospitals for military purposes throughout the war and has accused Israel of intentionally targeting its medical infrastructure in its ongoing offensive.
The latest strikes come after Israel ended its ceasefire with Hamas and restarted its air and ground offensive.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has also imposed a month-long blockade on food, fuel and humanitarian aid – a tactic that rights groups say is a war crime.
Israel reconstructs Morag corridor
Image: The Morag Corridor under construction. Pic: IDF
On Saturday, Israel said it had completed the construction of a new security corridor that cuts off the southern city of Rafah from the rest of Gaza.
The security corridor was referred to by Israeli officials as the Morag Axis, a reference to a former Israeli settlement previously located in an area between the two southern cities of Rafah and Khan Younis.
The prime minister said the move gives Israel control of a second axis in southern Gaza in addition to the Philadelphi Corridor, running along the border with Egypt, which Israel sees as a key line stopping weapons being smuggled into Gaza.
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Israeli forces encircle Rafah
Israel has also gained control of the Netzarim Corridor, which cuts off the northern third of Gaza from the rest of the territory.
Morag’s construction is part of Israel’s pledge to seize large parts of Gaza to pressure Hamas to release remaining hostages and accept proposed ceasefire terms, and it further squeezes Palestinians into shrinking areas of land.
In a statement on Saturday, Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said his country’s military would soon expand “rapidly” throughout most of Gaza and that Palestinians would “have to evacuate the fighting zones”.
He did not say where Palestinians were supposed to go.
The war between Israel and Hamas began when Hamas-led militants invaded Israel on 7 October 2023, killing around 1,200 people and taking 251 hostage.
Some 59 hostages are still being held in Gaza, with 24 still believed to be alive.
The ensuing Israeli offensive has killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry.
It does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count, but has previously said more than half of those killed in the conflict are women and children.