Israel would be compelled to respond if Iran had direct involvement in Hamas attack
The scale and complexity of an unprecedented attack by Hamas militants on Israel has raised questions about whether the Palestinian group received direct support from Iran, analysts have said.
There is also a chance this is only “phase one” in a wider offensive that seeks to draw in Palestinian militants on the West Bank and Iranian-backed Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon.
Tehran has denied involvement. A senior Hamas official has told NBC News the attack that left hundreds of Israelis dead was “a Palestinian operation – 100%”.
Israel-Gaza latest – Israeli PM says response to attack will ‘change Middle East’
A rapid reassessment will doubtless be under way about the threat posed by Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, and about the group’s intentions.
The Reuters news agency reported that the militants had conducted a careful campaign of deception for the previous two years to catch Israel off-guard.
The Israeli intelligence and security services were blindsided by the multi-pronged assault, using bulldozers, hang gliders, motorbikes and rockets.
Even without evidence of a direct Iranian hand, the bloody carnage has triggered a new period of turmoil in Israel and Gaza, which could yet lead to unintended escalation.
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Israel-Gaza: The human cost on both sides
A map of some of the areas near Gaza where there have been clashes between Israel and Hamas
The United States does not seem to be taking any chances, quickly announcing the deployment of a carrier strike group, led by the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford to the Eastern Mediterranean.
Jack Waitling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said intelligence assessment is about planning contingencies against the most likely course of action and also the most dangerous.
“The fact that this took everyone by surprise means there is uncertainty as to what the most likely trajectory is,” he said.
“But the most dangerous is that this is the first phase in an escalating conflict involving other actors including Iran and Hezbollah and so those are contingencies against which steps are being taken to deter further escalation because it has to be planned against irrespective of whether that is actually what is likely to transpire.”
Smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Gaza
Palestinians inspect a mosque destroyed by Israeli strikes on Gaza City’s Shati refugee camp. Pic: Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
One thing is certain, Israeli and western intelligence services will be looking for any evidence that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) played a part in the atrocities beyond a long-standing relationship between Tehran and Hamas of financial and military support.
Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, a spokesman for the Israel Defence Forces, said on Monday: “Iran is a major player but we can’t yet say if it was involved in the planning or training.”
This view was echoed by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
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Moments after rocket hits Israeli city
Vehicles lay abandoned outside a music festival in Israel following an attack by Hamas
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If evidence is found that Iran was directly involved, Israel would be compelled to respond – though there are different potential layers of retaliation, from a direct military attack to more deniable missile strikes, cyber attacks and assassinations.
The Israeli authorities have previously always erred on the side of deniability when it comes to targeting Iran as both sides know that an open war between the two states would plunge the world into a new, even deadlier era of turmoil.
As for Hamas, the Palestinian militant group has shown itself to be capable of coordinating attacks on a scale never seen before, from the land, sea and the air, as well as massing a huge arsenal of rockets and drones without Israel noticing.
It could, as the group claimed, have orchestrated the assault on its own, potentially in a bid to ignite a wider regional uprising against Israel.
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‘This has been Israel’s 9/11’
This means the top priority for the Israeli military in the coming days, weeks, months and possibly years will be to destroy the Hamas leadership and cut off all armed support.
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Israeli officials describe the attack on Saturday as their country’s 9/11 – a reference to the al Qaeda atrocities against the United States on 11 September 2001.
Back then, the US response was to launch a “war of terror” to take out al Qaeda.
Israel will be seeking to do something similar.
World
US blocks Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and 80 other officials from United Nations’ annual meeting in New York
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and 80 other officials have been blocked from attending September’s annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio has revoked the US visas of delegates from the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), and denied others from applying for one.
It is the latest step by Donald Trump’s administration to target Palestinians with visa restrictions, and follows the suspension of a programme to allow injured children from Gaza to receive treatment in the US.
Mahmoud Abbas addressed the general assembly in 2024, but is barred from next month’s meeting. Pic: Reuters
“It is in our national security interests to hold the PLO and PA accountable for not complying with their commitments, and for undermining the prospects for peace,” a statement from the US State Department said.
It added that, to be considered partners for peace, both groups “must consistently repudiate terrorism, and end incitement to terrorism in education, as required by US law and as promised by the PLO”.
Offensive will cause ‘intolerable deaths’
Several US allies, including France, Malta, and Australia have announced plans to recognise Palestine as a state at September’s United Nations General Assembly. Canada and the UK will too, unless Israel meets certain conditions.
Israel declared Gaza’s largest city a dangerous combat zone on Friday.
The army launched a planned offensive that has drawn international condemnation.
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Thick smoke rises from Gaza City after Israeli strikes
Foreign ministers from Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Norway, Slovenia and Spain released a joint statement saying the military operations in Gaza City will cause “intolerable deaths of innocent Palestinian civilians”.
Gaza latest: Israel’s Gaza City offensive condemned
Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are sheltering in Gaza City while enduring famine.
An Israeli armoured vehicle in northern Gaza on Friday. Pic: AP
Palestinians ride a truck carrying humanitarian aid in Gaza City. Pic: AP
The Palestinian ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Riyad Mansour, said Mr Abbas had planned to lead the delegation to the UN meetings and was expected to address the general assembly at the general debate, which begins on 23 September.
He was also expected to attend a high-level meeting co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia on 22 September about a two-state solution, a broad idea involving Israel coexisting with an independent Palestinian state.
The State of Palestine is an observer member of the UN, meaning it can speak at meetings but not vote on resolutions.
The State of Palestine cannot vote on UN resolutions. Pic: AP
US decision ‘contravenes international law’
The Palestinian Authority “expressed its deep regret and astonishment” at the visa decision, calling it “a violation of US commitments” as the host of the UN, and claiming it “contravenes international law”.
UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the world body would be seeking clarification in the “hope that this will be resolved”.
Hundreds of diplomats left when Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu began speaking at the general assembly in 2024. Pic: Reuters
The State Department said that the Palestinian Authority’s mission to the UN, comprising officials who are permanently based there, would not be included in the restrictions.
Under a 1947 UN agreement, the US is generally required to allow access for foreign diplomats to the UN in New York.
But Washington has said it can deny visas for security, extremism and foreign policy reasons.
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The death toll in Gaza has now risen to 63,025, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants.
It also reported five more malnutrition-related deaths in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number during the war to 322, with 121 of them children.
World
Brazil implores businesses to attend major climate summit, despite ‘second thoughts’ amid Trump backlash
The Brazilian hosts of the biggest climate meeting of the year have implored businesses to attend in November, amid concerns some are backing away from the climate agenda into the shadow of Donald Trump.
In an interview with Sky News, Ana Toni, chief executive of the COP30 climate summit in November, admitted some companies were having “second thoughts” about the global switch to green economies because policymakers were creating uncertainty.
The US President Donald Trump has been attacking wind farms and waging tariff wars that could slow the transition to green energy.
Banks including HSBC and Barclays have ditched a net zero alliance set up just four years ago by Mark Carney, now the Canadian Prime Minister.
Ana Toni, Brazil’s climate secretary, is chief executive of the COP30 climate talks. Pic: Reuters
But even before Trump took office, tech companies were quietly dropping climate targets to prioritise energy-hungry AI, and other businesses were “greenhushing” their climate initiatives for fear of backlash.
In this environment, there are fears fewer business leaders will attend the annual talks, which are also being hosted in a city on the edge of the Amazon that hasn’t enough hotel rooms.
On Friday, the COP30 team wrote to business leaders urging them to “step forward, not back” and travel to Belem, despite “logistical challenges” and the “background of systemic uncertainty”.
Ana Toni told Sky News: “We are very concerned that the enabling conditions must be there so that the private sector can also deliver where they do best, which is bringing in technology, bringing innovation and accelerating the process of decarbonisation.”
In August the share price of Danish wind farm developer plummeted after the US halted its Rhode Island wind farm, while the British Tories and Reform parties are also attacking net zero.
Ana Toni met with King Charles and leaders of other COP summits at Clarence House last year. Pic: Reuters
But Ms Toni there is “nothing to panic [about], because we can see that the transition is inevitable,” citing major progress in China, India and Europe and Brazil.
Referring to the US’s withdrawal from the COP process, she said: “198 countries minus one is not zero. And we will put all our efforts of working with the 197 countries that want to go forward and want to protect their population.”
“Climate action is not only [still] cool, it is necessary,” Ms Toni said.
“We all need to face reality. We are going through a huge climate crisis… If you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem. Companies understand that.”
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