Oregon-Washington was a true classic, the Big Ten’s best haven’t been truly challenged and more from Week 7
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David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterOct 14, 2023, 11:52 PM ET
Close- ACC reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
The term “instant classic” gets thrown around too much these days. Sure, we’re occasionally gifted moments we instantly recognize as something truly life-altering as they’re happening — like every cutaway to Taylor Swift during an NFL broadcast — but most “instant classics” are just run-of-the-mill entertainment — consumed, enjoyed and forgotten.
Washington and Oregon‘s showdown Saturday though? That’s one to remember.
The Huskies won — or, at least, they survived 36-33. The Ducks lost — or, at least, they ran out of time.
Michael Penix Jr. delivered a touchdown throw to Rome Odunze with 1:38 to play to secure the victory and ensconce himself at the front of the Heisman race.
Bo Nix delivered one of the truly great second-half performances by a QB who ultimately lost, completing 20-of-24 passes for 221 yards, but couldn’t connect on two fourth-down tries deep in Huskies territory.
The game featured six lead changes, 19 of 21 drives offered the offense a chance to take a lead, and Oregon’s fate was only sealed by a missed kick that would have sent the game to overtime.
In 10 months, these two teams will move to the Big Ten and, by rule, stop being fun and start focusing on punts. Thank the football gods we still got Saturday.
There will be so many decisions left to critique. Oregon coach Dan Lanning chose to go for it on fourth down deep in Washington territory twice, and failed both times. He went for it on fourth again with a chance to salt away the game just past midfield. That failed, too, and set up the Huskies’ winning score.
There will be so many what-ifs. Would Penix have shredded the Oregon secondary to the tune of 302 yards and four TDs, including that winner, had the Ducks not seen both starting corners injured on the same play? Or perhaps it might’ve been more had Jalen McMillan not been sidelined early for the Huskies.
ABSOLUTE. SCENES. #GoHuskies x #PurpleReign pic.twitter.com/hUvrto6zO7
— Washington Athletics (@UWAthletics) October 14, 2023
There will be moments when Lanning wakes up in the middle of the night and wonders why he was so cocky on those fourth-down calls, but never took a shot at the end zone on that final, fateful drive.
There will be replays of the game when future generations sit back in awe at Bucky Irving‘s tenacity and Kalen DeBoer’s offensive genius and Odunze’s ridiculous athleticism — and they’ll ask themselves, what the heck is the deal with Oregon’s uniforms? Was that a cookies-and-cream aesthetic or did the equipment guy accidentally throw a Bic pen in with the wash? Anyway, Irving and DeBoer and Odunze are all good.
There will be so many more twists and turns in the story because this was but a chapter for two heavyweights, with each still facing a chorus of ranked foes before a possible rematch in the Pac-12 championship game.
And that would be the perfect send-off for this weird, beautiful, ridiculous conference. For all the slings and arrows and Larry Scotts the Pac-12 has endured for much of the playoff era, its final season looks to be one for the ages, and Oregon and Washington certainly delivered the goods Saturday. It’s a rivalry that has fought its way to the top of college football — 13 lead changes, 38 drives with the score within one possession in the past two games — and it’s a matchup between two Heisman-caliber QBs and two playoff-caliber teams that truly belong in the spotlight.
Will a Big Ten contender be challenged?
Michigan won in a rout Saturday.
We could’ve typed that sentence in any of the past seven weeks, and we probably will write it again in the next few. Heck, we could’ve scribbled it onto a note card back in July, sealed it in an envelope and locked it inside an uncrackable safe, then opened it again Saturday afternoon to exactly zero fanfare at our prophetic brilliance. The Wolverines’ dominance is the least surprising development of the season.
There’s a good case to be made that Michigan is the country’s best team. The problem with that argument is the lack of anything approaching definitive evidence, thanks to a schedule that has essentially cast the Wolverines as Andy Reid in a 1970s punt, pass and kick competition.
50 years ago today, Andy Reid was a head and shoulders above the rest of his punt, pass, and kick competition ?@Chiefs pic.twitter.com/Yi992ibZ4O
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) December 13, 2021
Saturday’s blowout came against Indiana, but that doesn’t matter. It looked the same against ECU and UNLV, Nebraska and Minnesota. The best team Michigan has played thus far might be Rutgers. The biggest challenge the Wolverines have faced so far might’ve been tying their shoes.
It’s not Michigan’s fault, of course, that two-thirds of the Big Ten is made up of teams that should be wearing red Starfleet uniforms — just cannon fodder for the big stars.
And it’s only partially Michigan’s fault the nonconference slate is so bad. Who could’ve foreseen Bowling Green failing to provide a true test? (Don’t answer that.)
It’s not even really Michigan’s fault that its wins vs. such overmatched competition have been so dull. It’s partially slow starts, partially boredom, and for the first three Saturdays of the season, partially because their head coach was suspended and used that time to put the finishing touches on his YA novel about a magical pair of time-traveling khakis sewn with enchanted threads by L.L. Bean himself.
The real story of Michigan’s season requires a deeper dive into the text. J.J. McCarthy has genuinely blossomed into an all-around star at quarterback. He entered Saturday leading the nation in Total QBR, and added to his tally against Indiana, throwing for three touchdowns and averaging 13 yards per pass. The ground game remains strong with Blake Corum treating end zones like Kevin Hart treats movies — he’s in all of them. The defense hasn’t allowed multiple touchdowns in a game yet. The analytics all suggest Michigan’s dominance is noteworthy, with most metrics suggesting the Wolverines have been the year’s most impressive team — that is, if watching LeBron dunk on a team full of second-graders is impressive.
The narrative isn’t markedly different for Michigan’s archrival Ohio State, either. Ohio State thumped Purdue on Saturday 41-7. Yes, the Buckeyes have a win over Notre Dame — on the road, in ugly, low-scoring fashion — but the list of teams who’ve done that over the past two years includes other luminaries like … Marshall and Stanford. The Buckeyes have a playmaker in receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., but the rest of the offense has been like the latter seasons of “The Walking Dead” — occasionally fun, but mostly we’re just watching out of obligation.
And honestly, that all sounds a lot like Penn State, which hosted UMass for homecoming on Saturday, in a game in which the Minutemen played the role unsuspecting insect flying leisurely across the Pennsylvania Turnpike, intersecting with the Nittany Lions’ 18-wheeler to the tune of a 63-0 thrashing. Penn State has won every game by at least 17 points, and has something approaching a signature with a shutout of Iowa — but it’s also worth recalling that Iowa had given up offense in September as part of an intermittent fasting routine. Meanwhile, Penn State’s vaunted tailbacks have been far from electric so far this year, and reporters are openly wondering why James Franklin doesn’t let his QB just chuck it deep on every play like a drunk guy playing Madden. Is that a recipe for the playoff? Maybe!
The Ohio State-Penn State dilemma at least will be settled next week when the two face off in Columbus. After that, we’ll know for certain who Michigan’s true competition for a Big Ten title and a playoff berth might be.
But it’ll still be another month before we see Michigan play anyone likely to provide much of a test.
So, unless you’ve got yourself a magical pair of time-traveling khakis, the real answers on Michigan’s ceiling will have to wait a while longer.
It’s a game about nothing
Nick Saban offered a lecture this week on “the importance of nothing.”
Wise words from Nick Saban and “the importance of nothing” ? https://t.co/PogCmbjUhm pic.twitter.com/tBhG2UzfXu
— Alabama Crimson Tide | AL.com (@aldotcomTide) October 12, 2023
The point, he said, was that even the most talented players are entitled to nothing, and that success only comes when you meet your potential.
We assume there’s some real genius in this lesson because Saban is a football genius and because we liked the pitch when George Costanza gave it in the 1990s, too.
Alabama did just enough nothing Saturday to escape Arkansas, 24-21. It was hardly an impressive win, but it was the type of game in which Saban’s subtle touches made all the difference (and also the type of game where Arkansas offensive coordinator Dan Enos will probably leave his “out of office” autoreply up for a while).
Example: Jalen Milroe finished just 10-of-21 passing and at one point in the second half, he’d completed just one of his last nine passes while the Razorbacks closed a 17-point deficit to just three. In a lesser system, this would’ve spelled disaster. And for much of this season, it has felt like disaster was lurking behind the next corner for Alabama, too.
But this is Saban’s genius.
Why did he bench Milroe against USF? Obviously, Saban knew his backups weren’t ready to produce. They were so bad, in fact, the Tide narrowly escaped USF. On the sideline, though, Milroe was the cheerleader — the guy who rallied his team, even when he wasn’t on the field, pushing the QBs who did play and proving to the Tide that he was a genuine leader.
He was given nothing. He turned it into something.
What are the odds Saban knew that would happen? What are the odds he knew that experience would underpin Milroe’s turnaround since returning to the starting job? What are the odds that understanding of his role is what helped him shrug off that 1-for-9 run to engineer a 10-play drive to drain the final 5:19 off the clock in Saturday’s win?
Maybe we’re reading too much into that decision and its aftermath. Maybe Saban really did nothing.
Or maybe it was yet another brilliant choice in an astoundingly brilliant career.
Jordan Travis appreciation section
Florida State demolished Syracuse on Saturday, 41-3, to remain undefeated. There’s not much to unpack here — FSU is good, Syracuse not so much — so let’s instead make this a Jordan Travis appreciation moment.
Travis arrived at Florida State in 2019 and was effectively told by the coaching staff that he wasn’t a QB. When Mike Norvell took over as head coach, Travis offered to switch positions. Even as he led FSU to within a few points of bowl eligibility at the end of 2021, the general consensus was Travis was a heck of a runner, but not much of a passer.
How silly that all sounds now.
Against Syracuse, Travis threw for 284 yards and a touchdown (he also ran for two short scores), despite playing without one of his top receivers, Johnny Wilson. But over the past calendar year, the numbers are downright eye-popping: 65% completions, 3,035 yards, 26 touchdown passes, three picks and a 12-0 record.
The lesson here: Willie Taggart’s idea for turnover backpacks wasn’t the worst decision he made at Florida State.
The other, more important lesson: Never doubt Jordan Travis.
Heisman five
After dominating this watch list for the past two years, USC QB Caleb Williams is out of our top five after throwing three picks against Notre Dame. Winning the Heisman in back-to-back years is a near-impossible feat, so hat tip to Williams for another good run, but it’s time to focus on a few other big names.
1. Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
What’s left to be said about Penix after Saturday’s ridiculous performance against Oregon? We’re all just lucky he survived being a part of Indiana’s offense for so long and could still deliver games like that.
2. Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel
The Sooners were off in Week 7, which is good because Gabriel needed some down time after celebrating last week’s Red River win by having the Sooner Schooner deep-fried and covered with powdered sugar at the Texas State Fair.
3. Florida State QB Jordan Travis
Travis has 17 touchdowns, one turnover and has taken just seven sacks so far this season. In fairness, though, he could really just throw the ball straight up in the air and there’s still, like, a 28% chance Keon Coleman would come down with it for a touchdown.
4. Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Harrison posted his fourth 100-yard receiving game of the season against Purdue, and he’s been the backbone of Ohio State’s offense thus far. His performance Saturday came without Emeka Egbuka on the opposite side, but also it really doesn’t matter if Harrison is playing alongside two middle-aged data processors with a toddler at QB. He’s just really good.
5. LSU QB Jayden Daniels
Daniels had a handful of runs that looked like he was a video game QB played by someone’s cat that had gotten ahold of the controller, and that wasn’t even close to the most fun thing he did in LSU’s 48-18 win over Auburn on Saturday. Daniels finished with 325 pass yards, 93 rush yards and three TDs. He’s currently on pace to finish the season with more than 1,000 yards on the ground and nearly 5,000 through the air.
Trojans, Cards take first Ls
A week ago, Louisville torched Notre Dame in a stunning victory that signaled Jeff Brohm’s Cardinals were emergent and the Irish offense might be stuck in neutral for the rest of the season.
What a difference a week makes.
Caleb Williams throws 3 INTs for first time in USC’s loss to Notre Dame
Caleb Williams throws a trio of interceptions in the first half as USC falls to Notre Dame 48-20.
On Saturday, Louisville was flummoxed by Pitt’s attacking defense, which forced three turnovers, including a pick-six, as the Panthers pulled off the upset, 38-21.
In South Bend, the fix for Notre Dame’s recent offensive woes was USC’s woeful defense. The Irish hung 24 on USC in the first half — seven more points than they’d scored in the first halves of their three previous games — and went on to cruise to a 48-20 win. It was the worst loss for a Lincoln Riley-coached team since the 2019 playoff game against LSU.
The end result: The ranks of the undefeated shrunk by two, while Notre Dame and Pitt both have new leases on the 2023 season.
Pitt’s win came after a QB change the fan base had begged the Panthers to make for weeks. Christian Veilleux — pronounced “Vay-air” according to him, “Vay-you” according to his dad and “Christian” according to us — threw two TD passes and sparked something Pitt fans are told was offense in the win. More significantly, the Panthers’ D shut down Louisville’s dynamic run game and picked off Jack Plummer twice.
Meanwhile, the Irish defense picked off Caleb Williams three times — just the second time in his career he had multiple picks — including two by Xavier Watts, who also recovered a fumble in the win. Sam Hartman and Audric Estime provided the offense for the Irish, each accounting for two TDs, and Notre Dame finishes a stretch of four straight games vs. ranked foes 2-2, but squarely back in the hunt for a New Year’s Six bid.
The bigger question may be where the two losing teams go from here?
Louisville’s remaining schedule is manageable, but the Cardinals will now need help if they hope to make the ACC championship game, and a hamstring injury for star tailback Jawhar Jordan could be a serious blow to the Louisville offense.
USC will face ranked foes in four of its last five games, including a Week 8 date with an Utah team that beat the Trojans twice in 2022.
Heels dig in
It might still be a bit too early to call the ACC a two-team race, but North Carolina took a huge step toward securing its spot alongside Florida State as the league’s best with a 41-31 win over Miami on Saturday.
Drake Maye threw for 273 yards and four TDs, Omarion Hampton ran for 197 yards and a score, and Tez Walker, in just his second game after being ruled eligible, caught six passes for 132 yards and three touchdowns.
UNC’s INT sets up Devontez Walker’s 3rd receiving TD
UNC’s Cedric Gray picks off Tyler Van Dyke, then Drake Maye finds Devontez Walker for their third pitch-and-catch touchdown.
Walker’s emergence is a thrilling sign for a UNC offense that already looks electric. The real story of the Heels’ 6-0 start, however, is the defense, which last year mostly featured matadors waving receivers past them to a genuinely good unit this season. Miami jumped out to a strong start Saturday, leading 17-14 at the half, but the Canes’ offense took a knee from there — with a fumble, an INT, a punt and a turnover on downs on its first four drives of the second half, by which time the Heels’ had pulled away. All that was left was for Mack Brown to continue his run of hilariously aggressive postgame handshakes by reaching into Mario Cristobal’s chest and ripping out his heart.
Until North Carolina’s win Saturday, teams named Miami had been undefeated vs. anyone not named Miami — with Miami (Ohio) at 5-1, its lone loss coming to Miami (Florida) in Week 1, and Miami (Florida) at 4-1, with its lone loss coming to itself last week. The good news for the Canes, however, is basketball season is just around the corner — a sport where Miami dominates and UNC didn’t even make the NCAA tournament last year.
Sadly for the Tar Heels, there’s at least a 40% chance the victory is overturned midweek when the NCAA decides Walker was actually ineligible this whole time.
JMU still unbeaten
Jordan McCloud threw for 259 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-13 win over Georgia Southern, giving James Madison its most emphatic victory since establishing the precedent of judicial review — or at least thumping Bucknell in Week 1.
JMU is now 6-0 on the season and 14-3 since moving up from FCS in 2022.
The Dukes’ defense has been terrific, and McCloud has emerged as one of the top transfer QBs of 2023 after spending the first five years of his career at Arizona and USF.
JMU’s reward for all of this success? It won’t be a Sun Belt title game appearance or a bowl game — both of which are off limits because the Dukes are still in Year 2 of their transition to FBS.
It’s a stupid rule, of course, but the NCAA has always been a bunch of Federalists.
Colorado collapses in non-Prime time
Deion Sanders questions his team’s love for football
Deion Sanders reacts to Colorado’s huge blown lead in its loss to Stanford and questions whether his team can match his passion.
Credit where it’s due: Deion Sanders saw it all coming.
“Who makes these 8 o’clock games?” Sanders asked last week. “Dumbest thing ever. Stupidest thing ever invented in life. Who wants to stay up until 8 o’clock for a darn game?”
First, we must argue with Prime’s take that it’s the “stupidest thing ever invented” when we’ve got emotional support goldfish in Tallahassee.
— no context college football (@nocontextcfb) October 14, 2023
Second, boy, was Prime right about everything else. By halftime Friday night, the Buffaloes had all popped a melatonin gummy, changed into their official Coach Prime pajamas (complete with cowboy hat and sunglasses-shaped eye mask) and focused on getting a good night’s rest.
Unfortunately for Colorado, Stanford‘s team is used to pulling all-nighters for their advanced theoretical physics exams, so the Cardinal kept on playing in the second half, erasing a 29-0 Buffs lead and winning 46-43 in double overtime.
Shedeur Sanders threw for 400 yards and five touchdowns, including two to a reemergent Travis Hunter, but his INT in the second OT frame proved to be the final dagger in Colorado’s hopes.
Was it embarrassing for Prime? Sure. Was it an indication that, perhaps, Colorado is a fun — but not exactly good — football team? You betcha.
Under-the-radar game of the week
The lame kids who all just pretend to love horrific offenses and ugly games were all over Iowa-Wisconsin on Saturday, but the real fans of the genre — the hipsters who were into Sickos Football before it was cool — know the real story of Week 7 was the showdown between Navy and Charlotte.
On one side was Navy’s option — of which very few of those options involve scoring points.
On the other side was the struggling 49ers — an offense so inept, points are tougher to find than sleeves on Biff Poggi’s sweatshirts.
Saturday’s game had everything: Stalled drives, ugly turnovers and more punts than Brian Ferentz’s end-of-season highlight film.
Oh my look at this beauty… pic.twitter.com/I5P5svgLa2
— ??️♈️? (@ADavidHaleJoint) October 14, 2023
The two teams combined to complete 17 of 43 throws.
Fifteen drives lasted three plays or less.
Charlotte racked up 396 yards on punts — which was still 113 less than Navy.
Navy scored on a 69-yard pass and a 62-yard run. Those two plays accounted for 25% of the total offensive yardage in the game. (Oh, and that 62-yard touchdown capped a one-play, 57-yard drive because of both a penalty and also that these offenses were moving so slowly the earth began to rotate backwards underneath them).
So, next time your Iowa friends talk about how much they love punting, ask them if they’ve checked out the new Riley Riethman mixtape. The cool kids know what’s up.
Under-the-radar play of the week
Wake Forest‘s Demond Claiborne took a kickoff 96 yards for the score late in the second quarter against Virginia Tech on Saturday.
Wake Forest’s Demond Claiborne returns kickoff 96 yards to the house
Wake Forest RB Demond Claiborne flies through the Virginia Tech defense for a 96-yard touchdown.
What makes this kick return so special? Well, for one, it came in the middle of 17 points scored in a 24-second span in the game — Virginia Tech field goal, Claiborne return and a Jaylin Lane 75-yard TD catch on the next scrimmage play — which is notable in a game between two teams that gave us the greatest Twitter meme of all time.
The other point that makes Claiborne’s score notable is it might be the only way Wake Forest is scoring any time soon. The Deacons have now lost three straight games in which they’ve scored a total of 34 points. Wake has had 35 offensive drives in that stretch — 13 of which ended in punts and nine in turnovers. So, yeah, special teams will need to be pretty good.
A decorator’s touch
This week, news broke that, amid a woeful 1-4 start, Pitt had installed a vase at the entrance to the football facility where players were to deposit their negative thoughts.
This vase has been put at the entrance for the #Pitt facility. Players are to put their negative thoughts in it. pic.twitter.com/7iN76WU8zJ
— Christopher Carter (@CarterCritiques) October 11, 2023
Narduzzi comes up to the podium, and puts the blue vase right here before he starts to speak after #Pitt‘s win over No. 14 Louisville, and went on to say he told his team all week they were going to win this game. pic.twitter.com/c0yly1fV6p
— Christopher Carter (@CarterCritiques) October 15, 2023
Sadly, it turns out the sadness vase — urn of anguish? jar of joylessness? decanter of despair? — was actually a bit more complicated than all that, and the story was all a big nothing.
But we’re not willing to let a good idea go just because Pat Narduzzi didn’t actually think of it first. So, with that in mind, we’re depositing all our negative emotions from Week 7 into the … uh … flagon of forlornness? Let’s go with that.
It’s time to kill the Kevin James meme
Much like “The King of Queens,” the memes were good for three or four laughs, but it has long since outlived its relevance. Need evidence? Maryland tried to psych out Illinois kicker Caleb Griffin by showing an oversized — “More like life-sized if he keeps up with the pasta bolognese,” says Leah Remini (insert laugh track here) — image of Kevin James on the jumbotron behind the goal posts.
Instead, Griffin drilled a 43-yarder for the winner as time expired, giving the Illini a 27-24 victory.
Illinois stuns Maryland on last-second 43-yard FG
Illinois players go wild after Caleb Griffin’s 43-yard field goal gives them a 27-24 win over the Terrapins.
Like Maryland’s hot starts, Twitter memes were never made to last. So let’s turn the page and focus our kicker-related psychological warfare through more traditional means, like ordering two dozen pizzas to his hotel room at 3 a.m. or telling him Taylor Swift is in the press box and is really excited to meet him if he makes it.
The Air Raid is not ready for the Big Ten
Phil Longo took his high-powered Air Raid offense to Wisconsin this offseason with a promise of injecting a sense of modernity to the staid Big Ten.
Turns out, the Big Ten is utterly uninterested in any offense invented after the Industrial Revolution.
Wisconsin lost QB Tanner Mordecai to injury, failed to throw a TD and converted just 2 of 17 third-down tries in a 15-6 loss to Iowa.
Jump around ‼️#Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/Z2uNxe8WwH
— Hawkeye Football (@HawkeyeFootball) October 15, 2023
Oh, sure, Wisconsin still held Iowa to just 237 yards of offense, and the Hawkeyes mustered just nine first downs in the game, but that all went according to script. It’s Iowa’s 13th win of the playoff era when scoring less than 20 points — more than any other team in FBS. In fact, Iowa wins 33% of the time it fails to hit 20, while the rest of FBS wins at just a tick better than 10% of the time.
Iowa did punt 10 times for 506 yards though, which in a way, is its own version of a well-executed Air Raid.
Twitter jinxes
We may have tweeted something negative about Stanford at halftime Friday night, and that aged poorly.
We did it again Saturday, noting that Kansas QB Jason Bean was having himself a day.
Jason Bean, midway through 3Q: 343 yards and 5 TDs.
Iowa & Wisconsin combined at halftime: 310 yards, 1 TD.
— ??️♈️? (@ADavidHaleJoint) October 14, 2023
After that tweet, Bean threw two picks, had two more drives end on downs and Oklahoma State erased an eight-point deficit to win 39-32, as Ollie Gordon ran for 168 yards and caught six passes for another 116.
We take full responsibility and apologize to the citizens of Lawrence, Kansas.
Max Johnson as the world’s best suburban dad QB jokes
It’s been one of the few joys of watching Texas A&M football this year that we’ve been able to crack a few jokes at Johnson’s expense because he’s seemingly been playing college ball for 23 years. For a while, it was all in good fun, and Johnson seemed to have injected some actual life into the Aggies’ offense.
On Saturday, the Aggies lost in agonizing fashion for the second straight week, with Johnson tossing interceptions on each of his last two drives and falling to Tennessee, 20-13.
Afterward, all that was left for Johnson to do was throw the team’s helmets and shoulder pads into the back of his Dodge Caravan, distribute the individually wrapped PB&Js with the crusts cut off and get to work on those reports his boss had asked for Thursday.
Michigan State blew a 24-6 fourth-quarter lead to Rutgers, with the Scarlet Knights scoring three times in less than five minutes of game time and winning, 27-24.
We’re going to suggest Michigan State just sits out the rest of the season and starts fresh in 2024. Nothing good can come from continuing to play football this year. Just sit back, enjoy the Urban Meyer rumors, watch some basketball and we can all pretend this year didn’t happen when spring practice starts in March.
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Sports
Ovi’s comeback against Father Time, Jets on full burn: The NHL’s surprising one-month trends
Published
4 hours agoon
November 15, 2024By
admin-
Neil PaineNov 15, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
Close- Neil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.
Hockey is a notoriously chaotic sport in which you need a large sample of games to know what’s real versus what’s just noise. For instance, it is estimated that it takes the entire 82-game NHL season to give us as much information about team quality as just 32 NBA games — or less than half the regular season — do.
So it’s always risky to draw grand conclusions from what we see over the first month of play on the ice. But that can’t stop us from finding interesting trends emerging from the early portion of the schedule.
Here are seven initial developments that have taken us by surprise in 2024-25 so far:
1. Ovechkin’s comeback against Father Time
One of the biggest storylines heading into the season was Alex Ovechkin‘s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s goal-scoring record, with the Great 8 starting the season trailing The Great One by 41 scores.
Sports
NHL Power Rankings: Panic or patience on these struggling players in fantasy hockey?
Published
5 hours agoon
November 15, 2024By
admin-
Sean Allen
-
Victoria Matiash
CloseVictoria Matiash
Fantasy Hockey
- ESPN.com Fantasy Contributor since 2010
- Part-time anchor at NEWSTALK1010
Nov 15, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
Another week, another No. 1 landing spot for the Winnipeg Jets in the ESPN NHL Power Rankings. But who finishes 2-32?
Plus, it’s another fantasy hockey takeover week, with Sean Allen and Victoria Matiash identifying one player per team who is off to a slow start (relative to his teammates or expectations) and advising fantasy managers whether to have patience or panic at this time.
And as a reminder, it’s not too late to join ESPN Fantasy Hockey. Sign up for free and start playing today!
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our master list here.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Nov. 8. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 88.24%
Cole Perfetti, LW (28.9% rostered in ESPN Fantasy leagues): As difficult as it is to find fault with anything Jets-related these days, Perfetti isn’t quite meeting 2024-25 fantasy expectations yet. But the 22-year-old remains cemented on the Jets’ second scoring line and power play, and he has pitched in enough multipoint showings to merit another look in deeper leagues. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ FLA (Nov. 16), vs. FLA (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 73.33%
Brent Burns, D (69.5%): The writing had been on the wall, faintly sketched with a carpenter’s pencil, but now it’s been retraced in ink. Shayne Gostisbehere has the power play on lock, and Burns doesn’t put up the points without it now. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. OTT (Nov. 16), vs. STL (Nov. 17), @ PHI (Nov. 20), @ NJ (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 67.65%
Gustav Forsling, D (68.8%): Playoff heroics can inflate rostership numbers even this far into the future, but Forsling isn’t a must-have fantasy contributor. You can find a defenseman with a higher ceiling among your league’s free agents. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. WPG (Nov. 16), @ WPG (Nov. 19), @ CHI (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 78.13%
Marc-Andre Fleury, G (51.8%): As long as Filip Gustavsson continues to perform dependably well, the veteran No. 2 isn’t going to play much. There are other lesser-rostered backups in the league — Jake Allen and Jonathan Quick come to mind — who offer more fantasy punch than Fleury. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. DAL (Nov. 16), @ STL (Nov. 19), @ EDM (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 70.00%
Matt Roy, D (45.6%): After a breakout fantasy campaign with the Kings last season, cut Roy some slack. He has had only a handful of games to get used to his new teammates, and the minutes are there to get the job done. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ COL (Nov. 15), @ VGK (Nov. 17), @ UTA (Nov. 18), vs. COL (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 70.00%
Mika Zibanejad, C (95.6%): Zibanejad has had slow starts before — 1.78 FPPG in 2021-22 and 1.93 FPPG last season — yet still finished over 2.00 FPPG. His current 1.58 FPPG isn’t alarming. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ SEA (Nov. 17), @ VAN (Nov. 19), @ CGY (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 68.75%
Brayden McNabb, D (52.3%): Returning to his selfless ways — highlighted by five blocked shots against the Ducks Wednesday — McNabb is already working back into his fantasy managers’ good graces. While hardly a prolific producer, the veteran should start pitching in a few more points, too. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ UTA (Nov. 15), vs. WSH (Nov. 17), @ TOR (Nov. 20), @ OTT (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 65.00%
Luke Hughes, D (39.1%): He did an admirable job filling in for an injured Dougie Hamilton as a rookie last season, but unless that situation arises again, it looks as though Hughes is out of the limelight for this campaign. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ TB (Nov. 16), vs. CAR (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 66.67%
Roope Hintz, C (79.8%): Some bad puck luck, illustrated by his 6.7% shooting percentage through six recent contests (career: 16.5%), is partially to blame for Hintz’s current skid. But the perennial 30-plus goal scorer is bound to get back on track soon, especially once Peter DeBoer inevitably juggles his lines again. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ MIN (Nov. 16), vs. ANA (Nov. 18), vs. SJ (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 63.33%
Filip Hronek, D (51.9%): He’s averaging approximately a single shot and blocked shot per game. Unlike last season, the compensatory scoring isn’t there to make up for those shortcomings. Hronek appears far more valuable to the Canucks as Quinn Hughes‘ defensive partner than to his fantasy managers. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. CHI (Nov. 16), vs. NSH (Nov. 17), vs. NYR (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 58.33%
Quinton Byfield, RW (43.2%): The lack of a single power-play point is one concern, along with his removal from the top unit. Through the fantasy lens, so is Byfield’s third-line role. If all remains as is, we might be in for another season of inconsistent fantasy returns. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. DET (Nov. 16), vs. BUF (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 61.11%
Matthew Knies, LW (42.4%): He has been making hay while the sun shines, so to speak, as he gets first power-play unit access while Auston Matthews is out. The confidence boost should carry over to when Matthews returns, and they are linemates again. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. EDM (Nov. 16), vs. VGK (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 55.88%
Jeff Skinner, C (45.0%): Afforded the opportunity to compete alongside just about every Oiler up front, including two of the best centers in the biz, the veteran winger has nonetheless failed to offer much of a productive presence. Now Skinner appears relegated to Edmonton’s fourth line. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ TOR (Nov. 16), @ MTL (Nov. 18), @ OTT (Nov. 19), vs. MIN (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 56.67%
Jake Guentzel, LW (98.8%): Guentzel’s overall output is fantastic already, but with just two power-play points so far, he has yet to add his usual production with the man advantage. If he does, his already strong fantasy profile could get a big boost. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. NJ (Nov. 16), @ PIT (Nov. 19), @ CBJ (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 52.94%
Devon Toews, D (66.7%): While it has taken the defender time to warm up after a delayed start to 2024-25, Toews now appears back in his groove: blocking shots, contributing to the score sheet and skating more minutes than nearly everyone else. Cale Makar‘s partner hasn’t averaged 0.58 points per game throughout his career by accident. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. WSH (Nov. 15), @ PHI (Nov. 18), @ WSH (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 53.13%
Linus Ullmark, G (84.8%): The Senators are showing signs of competing, and we know Ullmark is capable of being among the best. Patience might already be paying off with some of his recent road outings against tough division rivals. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ CAR (Nov. 16), vs. EDM (Nov. 19), vs. VGK (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 55.88%
Nazem Kadri, C (78.4%): While no one is scoring much for the Flames these days, including their No. 1 center, this too shall pass. Perhaps it’ll play out like last season, when Kadri collected two points in October before erupting for 13 in November, then maintained that scoring pace for the duration of the season. Also, he shoots the puck a lot. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. NSH (Nov. 15), vs. NYI (Nov. 19), vs. NYR (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 50.00%
Charlie McAvoy, D (89.9%): The Bruins’ offense might be slower this season, but McAvoy’s 1.64 FPPG is still too low. Give him time. Not enough has changed to drop him far from his 2.29 FPPG average over the past three seasons. Verdict: Patience
Next seven days: vs. STL (Nov. 16), vs. CBJ (Nov. 18), vs. UTA (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 53.13%
Barrett Hayton, C (17.5%): According to analysis by Evolving Hockey, the third-line center (for now) should be scoring more goals in accordance with the quality of his shots. That offers some comfort in light of his current skid. While Hayton certainly needs to play more minutes and shoot on net more often, he doesn’t merit giving up entirely in deeper fantasy leagues. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. VGK (Nov. 15), vs. WSH (Nov. 18), @ BOS (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 52.94%
Brock Nelson, C (76.9%): The Isles’ collective offense isn’t weaker than it has been for several years. Nelson has averaged 2.03 FPPG across the past three seasons. He’ll come around. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ SEA (Nov. 16), @ CGY (Nov. 19), @ DET (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 50.00%
Patrick Kane, RW (66.3%): If the Red Wings’ power play were in the dumps, maybe we could preach patience for Kane. But it’s not, and it might be time to move on from Kane in fantasy. He is getting all the opportunities required and is just not producing. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ ANA (Nov. 15), @ LA (Nov. 16), @ SJ (Nov. 18), vs. NYI (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 50.00%
Dylan Cozens, C (49.3%): It is time to move off Cozens. He had that banner 2022-23 but is now matching the reduced fantasy production that lasted all of last season. Even an uptick in performance might not be enough to get to fantasy relevance from his current 1.41 FPPG. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ PHI (Nov. 16), @ LA (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 50.00%
Adam Larsson, D (60.5%): Despite the relative drought, the top-pair defenseman still blocks a sufficient number of shots to merit rostering in deeper standard leagues. Plus, he’ll soon fall back into his usual (however relatively modest) scoring groove. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: vs. NYI (Nov. 16), vs. NYR (Nov. 17), vs. NSH (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 44.12%
Jordan Binnington, G (55.1%): After winning the season opener against Seattle, the Blues’ No. 1 has yet to beat anyone outside of the Atlantic Division. Shouldering a 4-7-0 record, .887 save percentage and 3.26 goals-against average, Binnington has cost his fantasy managers a total net loss of 1.8 points. Yes, negative points. There are likely brighter days ahead for the banged-up Blues, but when? Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ BOS (Nov. 16), @ CAR (Nov. 17), vs. MIN (Nov. 19), vs. SJ (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 47.06%
Joel Farabee, LW (50.7%): Farabee, Tyson Foerster, Scott Laughton; Take your pick of Flyers who were just picking up some fantasy momentum in their career but have been buried on the depth chart by the new core group. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. BUF (Nov. 16), vs. COL (Nov. 18), vs. CAR (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 38.24%
Teuvo Teravainen, RW (41.4%): The Blackhawks’ offseason acquisition has one goal and zero assists in his past 11 games, and he isn’t shooting with any consistency. Even back on a scoring line with Connor Bedard, Teravainen can’t be counted on to contribute regularly enough. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ VAN (Nov. 16), vs. ANA (Nov. 19), vs. FLA (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 41.67%
Erik Karlsson, D (94.1%): It’s been a season and a quarter now, so what we see from Karlsson as a Penguin might be what we get. He’s not the sole source of offense, so downgraded fantasy output is just the new normal. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ CBJ (Nov. 15), vs. SJ (Nov. 16), vs. TB (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 40.00%
Ivan Provorov, D (19.2%): No one on the Blue Jackets is underperforming in a big way, but even 20% rostership is too high for Provorov. If he’s not on the first pair, you can safely pretend he’s not there. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. PIT (Nov. 15), @ MTL (Nov. 16), @ BOS (Nov. 18), vs. TB (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 38.24%
Gustav Nyquist, RW (16.6%): Once replaced by Steven Stamkos on the Predators’ top line, Nyquist lost most of his fantasy charm. It’s no coincidence the winger was at his most productive when skating alongside Filip Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: @ CGY (Nov. 15), @ VAN (Nov. 17), @ SEA (Nov. 20)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 40.00%
Lukas Dostal, G (60.7%): The Ducks allow the most shots against (35.5 per game) while scoring the fewest goals (2.20 per game). Plus, a healthy John Gibson is back to share Anaheim’s crease. Dostal’s successful fantasy run was fun while it lasted. It’s time to move on. Verdict: Panic.
Next seven days: vs. DET (Nov. 15), @ DAL (Nov. 18), @ CHI (Nov. 19)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 36.11%
William Eklund, LW (56.2%): The sophomore is playing a ton of minutes, pitching in assists and now skating on a scoring line with Mikael Granlund. Which is a good thing. Yes, we’d all like to see him shoot more. Verdict: Patience.
Next seven days: @ PIT (Nov. 16), vs. DET (Nov. 18), @ DAL (Nov. 20), @ STL (Nov. 21)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 35.29%
Sam Montembeault, G (22.3%): The Habs don’t look like they’ll win enough for Monty to shine in redraft leagues, but if you drafted him for a keeper league, there are positive signs for the future. Verdict: Patience, at least for the long term.
Next seven days: vs. CBJ (Nov. 16), vs. EDM (Nov. 18)
Sports
Sale, Crochet named comeback players of year
Published
13 hours agoon
November 15, 2024By
admin-
Associated Press
Nov 14, 2024, 10:21 PM ET
LAS VEGAS — Left-handers Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves and Garrett Crochet of the Chicago White Sox won Major League Baseball’s Comeback Player of the Year awards on Thursday.
Cleveland right-hander Emmanuel Clase won his second AL Reliever of the Year award and St. Louis righty Ryan Helsley won the NL honor.
Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani joined David Ortiz as the only players to win four straight Outstanding Designated Hitter awards. Ohtani and the New York Yankees‘ Aaron Judge won Hank Aaron Awards as the outstanding offensive performers in their leagues.
Major League Baseball made the announcements at its All-MLB Awards Show.
Sale, 35, was 18-3 with a 2.38 ERA and 225 strikeouts in 177⅔ innings for the NL’s first pitching triple crown since the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw in 2011. He earned his eighth All-Star selection and first since 2018.
Sale helped Boston to the 2018 World Series title but made just 56 starts from 2020-23, going 17-18 with a 4.86 ERA, 400 strikeouts and 79 walks over 298⅓ innings. He was acquired by Boston from the White Sox in December 2016 and made nine trips to the injured list with the Red Sox, mostly with shoulder and elbow ailments. He had Tommy John surgery on March 30, 2020, and returned to a big league mound on Aug. 14, 2021.
Sale fractured a rib while pitching in batting practice in February 2022 during the management lockout. On July 17, in his second start back, he broke his left pinkie finger when he was hit by a line drive off the bat of the Yankees’ Aaron Hicks. Sale broke his right wrist while riding a bicycle en route to lunch on Aug. 6, ending his season.
Crochet, 25, was 6-12 with a 3.58 ERA over 32 starts for a White Sox team that set a post-1900 record of 121 losses, becoming a first-time All-Star. He struck out 209 and walked 33 in 146 innings.
He had Tommy John surgery on April 5, 2022, and returned to the major leagues on May 18, 2023. Crochet had a 3.55 ERA in 13 relief appearances in 2023, and then joined the rotation this year.
Sale and Crochet were chosen in voting by MLB.com beat writers.
Clase and Helsley were unanimous picks by a panel that included Hall of Famers Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, Dennis Eckersley and Rollie Fingers, along with John Franco and Billy Wagner. The AL award is named after Rivera and the NL honor after Hoffman.
A three-time All-Star, Clase was 4-2 with a 0.61 ERA, 66 strikeouts and 10 walks in 74⅓ innings, holding batters to a .154 average. The 26-year-old converted 47 of 50 save chances, including his last 47.
Voting was based on the regular season. Clase was 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in the playoffs, allowing three home runs, one more than his regular-season total.
Helsley, a two-time All-Star, was 7-4 with a 2.04 ERA and 49 saves in 53 chances. He struck out 79 and walked 23 in 66⅓ innings.
Ohtani became the first player with 50 or more homers and 50 or more stolen bases in a season. A two-way star limited to hitting following elbow surgery, Ohtani batted .310 and led the NL with 54 homers and 130 RBIs while stealing 59 bases.
Ortiz won the DH award five years in a row from 2003-07.
The DH award, named after Edgar Martinez, is picked in voting by team beat writers, broadcasters and public relations departments. MLB.com writers determined the finalists for the Aaron awards, and a fan vote was combined with picks from a panel of Hall of Famers and former winners to determine the selections.
Judge led the major leagues with 58 homers and 144 RBIs while hitting .322.
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