Seven questions facing the CFP committee before its first rankings reveal
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Heather Dinich, ESPN Senior Writer
GRAPEVINE, Texas — Before the College Football Playoff selection committee members even began their first meeting here on Monday at the Gaylord Texan Resort, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian lobbed the first public pitch of the season in their direction.
“I’d argue we have the best win in the country right now,” Sarkisian told reporters on Monday at his weekly news conference. “The fact that we go into Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and beat a team that was 52-1 in the previous 53 games.
“I hear so much about how tough the SEC is, but I haven’t seen any of those teams go into Alabama and win either, so I feel pretty good about our team.”
He’s right. The Longhorns have the best nonconference win in the nation. But are they the best one-loss team? Or will that honor go to Oregon when the committee releases its first of six rankings Tuesday evening?
Nothing that has unfolded through the first nine weeks of the season will make this any easier for the 13-member group tasked with determining which of the five remaining undefeated Power 5 teams will be on the bubble this week: Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida State or Washington.
Adding to the drama is the ongoing investigation into Michigan, which is facing allegations of cheating by scouting future opponents in person at games. It’s an unprecedented situation for the committee members to consider — or try to ignore.
There are seven sitting athletic directors on the committee, including Michigan’s Warde Manuel, who is here and will recuse himself during voting and discussions about his team. The CFP on Monday declined to answer any specific questions about what Manuel can speak about as it relates to the investigation or how the committee will be instructed to handle it. CFP executive director Bill Hancock referred to his original statement: “The answer continues to be that the committee considers teams that are eligible to participate in a bowl game.”
Selection committee members are rotated every three years, so what might have been important to last year’s group could change this season with three new members in former Nevada coach Chris Ault, Miami (Ohio) athletic director David Sayler and Utah athletic director Mark Harlan, who replaced Jennifer Cohen when she was hired as USC’s AD.
Harlan is the Pac-12’s representative in the group, working alongside the ACC’s Boo Corrigan (NC State), the Big Ten’s Manuel, the SEC’s Mitch Barnhart (Kentucky) and the Big 12’s Gene Taylor (Kansas State). Navy athletic director Chet Gladchuk is entering his second year with the committee.
Other committee members include former Wake Forest, Ohio and Baylor coach Jim Grobe, former Nebraska All-America offensive lineman and NFL All-Pro Will Shields, former Notre Dame linebacker Rod West and Hall of Fame coach Joe Taylor, whose career spanned stops at Florida A&M, Hampton, Virginia Union and Howard. There is one woman in the group, former USA Today sportswriter Kelly Whiteside.
Committee members are directed through written protocol to consider strength of schedule, head-to-head results and outcomes against common opponents. Conference championships are the final piece of the puzzle, but the committee ranks 25 teams each week based only on what they’ve done to date.
These are the biggest questions facing the group, and their answers when the rankings are released will be the first clues to the playoff pecking order in the final season of a four-team field:
Who’s No. 1?
Ohio State, Florida State and Washington have the three best résumés, according to ESPN’s strength of record metric. Georgia’s strength of schedule so far ranks 100th, while Michigan’s ranks 111th.
Ohio State could have the best résumé in the country if both Penn State and Notre Dame are top-15 CFP teams. The committee also would value the Buckeyes’ recent road win against a respectable Wisconsin team. While its offense hasn’t been as consistent or explosive as others, Ohio State’s defense hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in a game all season.
Georgia has won back-to-back national titles and is undefeated, but the Bulldogs might not have any wins against CFP-ranked opponents, and the committee isn’t supposed to let previous seasons influence its voting. Georgia has played well against its toughest competition, though, and it proved Saturday against Florida that it can be a top-four team even without injured tight end Brock Bowers. How the committee evaluates Florida and Kentucky, which are both three-loss teams, will factor into where the Bulldogs are placed. Those are also the only two FBS opponents Georgia has defeated that have a winning record.
Florida State’s best win is against LSU in Orlando, and it trumps anything Georgia and Michigan have done yet, but the Noles’ overtime victory against Clemson no longer looks as impressive because the Tigers are a four-loss team. Washington arguably has the best overall win in the country — against Oregon — but the Huskies have won unconvincingly in each of the past two weeks.
Michigan has looked like the most complete team in the country and is No. 1 in ESPN’s game control metric (though Ohio State is No. 2, and Washington is No. 3). As good as the Wolverines have appeared, their best win is against Rutgers (6-2).
Speaking of Michigan …
How will the allegations against Michigan impact its ranking, if at all?
0:53
Finebaum: It’s time for Jim Harbaugh to take some responsibility
Paul Finebaum reacts to Jim Harbaugh’s passive response to a question about Michigan’s sign-stealing scandal.
It’s highly probable the investigation won’t impact Michigan at all, at least not if the selection committee members follow the written protocol committee chair Corrigan reminds them of at the start of each meeting. If the NCAA or the Big Ten levies a postseason ban, the Wolverines are out, but the investigation process at the NCAA level typically moves at a glacial pace.
ESPN reached out to past committee members to understand how the topic likely will be handled in the room.
“Because these things take so long, I think the committee tries to do things based on their criteria, based on the letter of the law, and I really don’t believe this would come into discussions during our meetings,” one former committee member said, “and if it did, it would be shut down really quickly because it doesn’t go with our standards. If for some reason [the investigation] was fast-tracked, and they vacated wins during the season, obviously that’s a different story.”
That doesn’t mean, though, that committee members won’t be talking about the allegations against Michigan outside the room.
There will likely be some “private disgust and conversations away from the table about how this is a kick in the gut to sportsmanship and, especially among coaches, kind of sacrilegious,” the same former committee member said.
“I think this is totally against everything that is fair and ethical about college football,” another former committee member said.
Another said “it’s almost worse” if a committee member penalizes Michigan because he or she thinks the school might have done something.
“That’s not a metric, right?” the person said. “That could end up really adversely affecting the other rankings, and that’s not right either.”
“I would say at this stage the committee should rank them as they deem appropriate,” the same committee member said. “Keep an eye on their eligibility. But I think they’d have to rank the team based on what they see. There’s plenty to question outside of the alleged cheating. They’re doing everything they’re supposed to against the schedule they’re playing, but there’s not a lot of meat on the bone as far as their opponents yet. So that may be more of a discussion point.”
Who is the highest-ranked one-loss team?
Sarkisian would like to think it’s Texas — and it could be — but Oregon has a strong case and enters the committee’s first conversation after a convincing win at Utah, where the Utes had won 18 straight home games. Harlan, the Utes’ athletic director, can certainly weigh in on what he saw from the Ducks firsthand, just like Kentucky’s Barnes will certainly have some opinions on what he witnessed about Georgia.
The Ducks have three wins against Power 5 teams .500 or better (Colorado, Washington State and Utah) and one victory against what should be a ranked CFP team in Utah. Four road wins is a detail the committee will notice — but so is a win against an FCS school, Portland State.
The Longhorns’ double-digit road victory at Alabama will be a focal point of the committee’s discussions about Texas, and their only loss was to their rival Oklahoma, by four points. Even without injured starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, the Longhorns earned a convincing home win on Saturday against BYU. Following Kansas‘ upset of Oklahoma on Saturday, it’s possible the selection committee has the Jayhawks in their top 25. That would give Texas a second win against a ranked opponent, along with the victory against the Crimson Tide. With the exceptions of Baylor and Houston, all the Longhorns’ wins have come against FBS opponents at .500 or better.
While Alabama is certainly one of the nation’s best one-loss teams, the Longhorns’ head-to-head true road win against the Tide will keep Alabama from leapfrogging Texas — for now.
Will the committee honor Oklahoma’s head-to-head win against Texas?
It would be surprising if the committee did, even though the teams have identical 7-1 records, considering the Sooners lost to Kansas and didn’t play well in their win against UCF. Oklahoma beat Texas 34-30 on Oct. 7, but the selection committee has caused controversy before by discounting a head-to-head result.
In 2021, the group ranked Michigan ahead of Michigan State in spite of the Spartans’ 37-33 October win over their in-state rival. At the time, committee chair Gary Barta said the group deemed Michigan the “more complete team” and better statistically “in just about every category.”
With OU and Texas, there aren’t many glaring statistical differences, though any can be pulled as an example in either team’s favor. The key factors could be Oklahoma’s two-point win against a 3-5 UCF team and the Sooners’ lack of a nonconference win against a Power 5 opponent.
Who’s on the bubble at No. 5?
With five undefeated Power 5 teams remaining, somebody is going to get snubbed. The most likely candidates for this dubious distinction are Washington, Michigan and Georgia.
What’s unique about this first ranking is Michigan could truly be No. 1 or No. 5 in such a subjective system. Michigan is No. 9 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, while Georgia is No. 7 and Washington is No. 3. (Strength of record measures how difficult it is for an average top-25 opponent to achieve the same record against the same opponents.)
The Huskies’ concern is how they’ve played each of the past two weeks, particularly in an unimpressive 15-7 win against Arizona State, which is now 2-6. Washington’s high-powered offense was held without a touchdown against the Sun Devils. On Saturday in a narrow victory against Stanford, Washington had two red zone turnovers. The Huskies’ win against Oregon, though, is looking better than ever after the Ducks’ triumph at Utah.
Where are the contenders’ opponents ranked?
This is where strength of schedule starts to be determined — at least in the committee members’ eyes. One of the most repeated justifications for where a team is ranked has been how many CFP top-25 opponents it has defeated. Well, the committee is the one that sets that bar.
So how good is the Big 12 beyond Texas and Oklahoma? Will the Sooners have defeated any ranked opponents besides Texas? Will Texas get a shot Saturday at another top-25 team in Kansas State?
How much has the ACC fallen with Clemson, North Carolina and Miami having multiple losses? That answer could help determine how much pressure is on Florida State to finish as an undefeated ACC champ.
And where is LSU ranked? Does Georgia have any top-25 wins yet?
Does any two-loss team have a chance?
No two-loss team has made the cut in the nine-year history of the CFP, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.
While Notre Dame could be the committee’s highest-ranked two-loss team, it’s incredibly difficult for the Fighting Irish to overcome that without a conference championship win against a ranked opponent. It will be hard for the committee to overlook their loss to Louisville, as well.
LSU is in a similar position to that of last season, when it had an opportunity to finish as a two-loss SEC champion and push the committee to see how seriously it would consider the Tigers. Instead, the Tigers finished as a three-loss runner-up to Georgia, and it was a moot point. The same could happen again on Saturday if LSU loses at Alabama.
One other possibility is two-loss Oregon State, which will end the season with back-to-back games against Washington and Oregon.
Keep an eye on where these two-loss teams are ranked Tuesday.
The lowest a team has ever been ranked in the initial CFP ranking and still made the playoff was No. 16 Ohio State in 2014, but the Buckeyes only had one loss and went on to win the national title that year.
What the first ranking really means
Over the first nine years of the four-team format, 21 of the 36 teams (58%) that were in the top four in the initial rankings ended up in the playoff. That leaves room for teams outside Tuesday’s top four to land a spot in the semifinals.
The lowest-ranked teams in the initial rankings to make it to the final four are Ohio State in 2014, when the Buckeyes started at No. 16, and Oklahoma in 2015, when the Sooners started at No. 15. Those are the only teams that were outside the top 10 of the first CFP rankings to make that year’s playoff.
On the other end of the scale, seven of the nine No. 1 teams in the first CFP rankings and 15 of the 18 teams initially ranked in the top two have reached the playoff. The exceptions are No. 1 Mississippi State in 2014, No. 2 LSU in 2015 and No. 1 Tennessee last year.
Only once, in 2020, did all of the top four teams in the initial rankings make it to the playoff.
ESPN’s Chris Low takes a year-by-year look at the top four in the first rankings, where those teams landed in the final rankings and the key elements that shaped each year’s race.
2022
No. 1 in first ranking: Tennessee (sixth in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Ohio State (fourth in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Georgia (first in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Clemson (seventh in final ranking)
Other playoff teams: No. 2 Michigan (fifth in first ranking), No. 3 TCU (seventh in first ranking)
No team in the 2022 playoff chase suffered a more crushing defeat than Tennessee, which was shredded 63-38 by unranked South Carolina in the next-to-last week of the regular season. The Vols were No. 5 heading into that Nov. 19 game, and their only loss was to No. 1 Georgia on the road. With Ohio State losing at home to Michigan in the final regular-season game, and TCU falling in the Big 12 championship game to Kansas State the next week, the door would have been open for the Vols to make the playoff as a one-loss team. Things fell just right for the Buckeyes to slide into the final playoff spot when USC blew its chance by losing to Utah (for the second time that season) in the Pac-12 championship game. The Trojans were No. 4 in the CFP rankings heading into their rematch with the Utes, but USC was beaten soundly, 47-24.
2021
No. 1 in first ranking: Georgia (third in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Michigan State (10th in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Oregon (14th in final ranking)
Other playoff teams: No. 2 Michigan (seventh in first ranking), No. 4 Cincinnati (sixth)
Michigan State seemed to be in great shape after beating Michigan 37-33 on Oct. 30 to secure the No. 3 spot in the first rankings. But that didn’t last. The Spartans lost 40-29 the next week at Purdue and were routed 56-7 by Ohio State two weeks after that. And the Wolverines only picked up steam after their close loss in East Lansing. They reeled off five straight victories, including a 42-27 win over Ohio State (their first in the series in 10 years) and earned their first playoff appearance. Meanwhile, Cincinnati went unbeaten during the regular season to become the first Group of 5 team to make the playoff, benefiting from Oregon losing twice to Utah in the final three weeks.
2020
No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Notre Dame (fourth in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Ohio State (third in final ranking)
The selection committee’s top four remained intact in the final rankings, although Texas A&M lost just one game (to Alabama) while playing an all-SEC schedule during the shortened COVID-19 season and thought it deserved the No. 4 spot over a Notre Dame team that lost by 24 points to Clemson in the ACC championship game.
2019
No. 1 in first ranking: Ohio State (second in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: LSU (first in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Alabama (13th in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Penn State (10th in final ranking)
Other playoff teams: No. 3 Clemson (fifth in first ranking), No. 4 Oklahoma (ninth)
Alabama transfer quarterback Jalen Hurts helped Oklahoma rebound from a 48-41 loss at Kansas State on Oct. 26 to win its next five games, including a 30-23 overtime win against Baylor in the Big 12 championship game, to climb to the No. 4 spot. Georgia had been No. 4 the previous four weeks but slipped to No. 5 in the final rankings after losing 37-10 to LSU in the SEC championship game.
2018
No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: LSU (11th in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Notre Dame (third in final ranking)
Other playoff team: No. 4 Oklahoma (seventh in first ranking)
Similar to the 2019 season, Hurts played a big role in how the final 2018 playoff rankings shook out, only this time he was playing for Alabama. Hurts came off the bench for an injured Tua Tagovailoa to pass for a touchdown and run for another in rallying Alabama past Georgia in the fourth quarter for a 35-28 win in the SEC championship game. That loss cost the Dawgs a spot in the playoff, as they fell from No. 4 to No. 5 in the final rankings. It also cleared the way for the Sooners to move from No. 5 to No. 4 after beating Texas in the Big 12 championship game for their seventh straight win.
2017
No. 1 in first ranking: Georgia (third in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Alabama (fourth in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Notre Dame (14th in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Clemson (first in final ranking)
Other playoff team: No. 2 Oklahoma (fifth in first ranking)
The team that didn’t make the playoff in 2017 that most shaped the field was Auburn. In a span of three weeks to end the regular season, Auburn beat No. 1 Georgia and No. 1 Alabama to move to No. 2 in the next-to-last rankings despite having two losses. But in a rematch with Georgia in the SEC championship game, Auburn lost 28-7 to the Dawgs, paving the way for both Alabama and Georgia to move back into the top four and eventually play for the national championship. Alabama had been No. 5 and Georgia No. 6 the week before in the committee’s rankings. If Auburn had won the SEC title game, the Tigers would have been the only two-loss team ever to make the playoff field.
2016
No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Michigan (sixth in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Texas A&M (did not make final ranking)
Other playoff teams: No. 3 Ohio State (sixth in first ranking), No. 4 Washington (fifth)
Penn State fans still grimace over this one. The Nittany Lions finished one spot out of the playoff, at No. 5 in the final rankings. That’s despite beating Ohio State head-to-head and winning their last nine games, including a 38-31 decision over Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game. Ohio State was the Big Ten team that made the playoff, though, as the Buckeyes had just one loss as compared to the Nittany Lions’ two losses. Eventual national champion Clemson survived a 43-42 home loss to Pittsburgh on Nov. 12 to finish No. 2 in the final rankings. Pitt was unranked at the time of the game but was No. 23 in the committee’s final rankings.
2015
No. 1 in first ranking: Clemson (first in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: LSU (20th in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Ohio State (seventh in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Alabama (second in final ranking)
Other playoff teams: No. 3 Michigan State (seventh in first ranking), No. 4 Oklahoma (15th)
One of the biggest kicks during the College Football Playoff era was courtesy of Michael Geiger, whose 41-yard field goal as time expired lifted Michigan State to a 17-14 win over Ohio State, snapping the Buckeyes’ 23-game winning streak. Ohio State was No. 3 entering the Nov. 21 game. The Spartans won their next two, including a 16-13 win over Iowa in the Big Ten championship game, to make the playoff. The Iowa-Michigan State tilt was essentially a play-in, as the Hawkeyes came in at No. 4 and the Spartans were No. 5 in the committee’s rankings. Oklahoma made its big move up from No. 15 after beating No. 6 Baylor on the road Nov. 14 then hammering No. 6 Oklahoma State 58-23 two weeks later to win the Big 12 championship game.
2014
No. 1 in first ranking: Mississippi State (seventh in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Florida State (third in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Auburn (19th in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Ole Miss (ninth in final ranking)
Other playoff teams: No. 1 Alabama (sixth in first ranking), No. 2 Oregon (fifth), No. 4 Ohio State (16th)
Three SEC teams in the initial playoff rankings? The rest of the college football world was fuming, but none of the three ended up in the final four. Eventual national champion Ohio State was the comeback story that season. The Buckeyes lost in Week 2 at home by two touchdowns to a Virginia Tech team that dropped six games. Ohio State also lost a pair of quarterbacks — Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett — to injury but clawed back to secure the No. 4 spot in the final rankings, moving up from No. 5 after a 59-0 drubbing on Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game. Nobody was more upset that season than TCU. At the time, the Big 12 didn’t have a championship game, and the Horned Frogs, who were No. 3 in the next-to-last rankings, closed the regular season by drubbing a 2-10 Iowa State team 55-3. That clinched the Frogs a share of the Big 12 championship, but it wasn’t enough to impress the committee, as TCU somehow fell to No. 6 in the final rankings.
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Mark Schlabach
ATLANTA — Ohio State’s high-powered offense proved to be too much for Notre Dame in the Buckeyes’ 34-23 victory in Monday’s national title game.
The Buckeyes captured their first national title in 10 years and first under coach Ryan Day. It was the school’s seventh national championship overall.
Even with Ohio State having a boatload of players who are expected to move on and be chosen in April’s NFL draft, the Buckeyes are No. 1 in ESPN’s Way-Too-Early Top 25 for 2025.
The Buckeyes will still have star players, such as receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs, and they’ll plug holes with another top recruiting class and group of transfers.
Ohio State will be looking for a new quarterback as well, but it won’t be alone among the potential CFP contenders. Notre Dame, Texas, Georgia, Oregon and others will be developing new signal-callers, too.
Here’s the 2025 ESPN Way-Too-Early Top 25:
2024 record: 14-2, 7-2 Big Ten
Key returning players: WR Jeremiah Smith, WR Carnell Tate, S Caleb Downs
Key losses: RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Emeka Egbuka, QB Will Howard, G Donovan Jackson, LB Cody Simon, S Lathan Ransom, DE Jack Sawyer, DE JT Tuimoloau, CB Denzel Burke
2025 outlook: After winning the program’s third national championship since 2002, the Buckeyes are going to undergo a bit of a makeover — but so are most of the other Big Ten contenders. The core group of seniors who came back in 2024 — led by Sawyer, Henderson, Egbuka and others — will be missed. Julian Sayin, a five-star prospect who transferred from Alabama, will probably be QB1 after Devin Brown and Air Noland entered the transfer portal. Sayin will have the luxury of throwing to Smith, the best receiver in the FBS, and the Buckeyes picked up tailback CJ Donaldson (West Virginia) and tight end Max Klare (Purdue) from the portal. Ohio State’s offense will be even better if RB Quinshon Judkins decides to come back. Some younger players will have to step up on the defensive line and in the secondary, but at least Downs is coming back.
2024 record: 13-3, 7-1 SEC
Key returning players: QB Arch Manning, RB Quintrevion Wisner, LB Anthony Hill Jr., DE Colin Simmons, DE Trey Moore, S Michael Taaffe
Key losses: QB Quinn Ewers, WR Matthew Golden, OT Kelvin Banks Jr., OT Cameron Williams, S Andrew Mukuba, CB Jahdae Barron, TE Gunnar Helm
2025 outlook: In their first season in the SEC, the Longhorns more than proved they were good enough to compete, reaching the SEC title game and CFP semifinals. With Ewers moving on, the highly anticipated Manning era will kick off in 2025. The Longhorns will have to rebuild their offensive line and replace some key receivers, including Golden and Isaiah Bond. There are big losses up front, with Banks, Williams, center Jake Majors and guard Hayden Conner departing. There’s a good nucleus returning on defense, led by linebackers Hill and Simmons, but three of the top four defensive backs are leaving. The Longhorns added linebacker Brad Spence (Arkansas) and defensive linemen Cole Brevard (Purdue) and Travis Shaw (North Carolina) from the portal. Texas opens the season Aug. 30 at Ohio State, a big early test for Manning.
2024 record: 13-3, 8-1 Big Ten
Key returning players: QB Drew Allar, RB Kaytron Allen, RB Nicholas Singleton, C Nick Dawkins, DE Dani Dennis-Sutton, S Zakee Wheatley, CB A.J. Harris
Key losses: DE Abdul Carter, TE Tyler Warren, S Jaylen Reed, G Sal Wormley, DT Dvon J-Thomas, LB Kobe King
2025 outlook: With Allar, Allen and Singleton returning, the Nittany Lions might get a senior boost like Ohio State did in 2024. Penn State came up short against Notre Dame in a CFP semifinal game at the Orange Bowl, but it was coach James Franklin’s best season. If Allar can take another step as a passer, and Franklin can find him some capable receivers, the Nittany Lions might be even better on offense in 2025. Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans, the team’s two top receivers in 2024, entered the transfer portal. Penn State added Troy’s Devonte Ross, who caught 76 passes for 1,034 yards with 11 touchdowns in 2024, and USC’s Kyron Hudson. Carter and King are big losses on defense, and so is former coordinator Tom Allen, who left for Clemson. The Nittany Lions host Oregon and Indiana in Happy Valley and play at Ohio State on Nov. 1.
2024 record: 14-2
Key returning players: RB Jeremiyah Love, RB Jadarian Price, WR Jordan Faison, WR Jaden Greathouse, LB Drayk Bowen, S Adon Shuler
Key losses: QB Riley Leonard, TE Mitchell Evans, DT Rylie Mills, S Xavier Watts, CB Benjamin Morrison, LB Jack Kiser, DT Howard Cross III
2025 outlook: With two solid coordinators and vastly improved recruiting, the Fighting Irish seem to be only scratching the surface under dynamic head coach Marcus Freeman. The Irish recovered from a shocking early loss to Northern Illinois at home to reach the CFP National Championship game. They’ll miss Leonard’s leadership, but the coaching staff is excited about freshman CJ Carr, the grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr, who was rated the No. 2 pocket passer in the 2024 recruiting class by ESPN. He battled an elbow injury on his throwing arm this past season. Backup Steve Angeli will compete with Carr for the job. There’s plenty of depth coming back on the offensive line, along with Love and tailback Jadarian Price. The Irish could use more game-changing receivers — they added Malachi Fields (Virginia) and Will Pauling (Wisconsin) from the portal. A few key players will have to be replaced on defense, and tackles Jared Dawson (Louisville) and Elijah Hughes (USC) and safeties DeVonta Smith (Alabama) and Jalen Stroman (Virginia Tech) should help fill some holes.
2024 record: 11-3, 6-2 SEC
Key returning players: QB Gunner Stockton, RB Nate Frazier, TE Oscar Delp, TE Lawson Luckie, LB CJ Allen, LB Raylen Wilson, S KJ Bolden, CB Daylen Everette
Key losses: QB Carson Beck, G Tate Ratledge, RB Trevor Etienne, LB Jalon Walker, S Malaki Starks, S Dan Jackson, LB Smael Mondon Jr., DE Mykel Williams
2025 outlook: The Bulldogs seemed a bit disjointed throughout much of the 2024 season, but they still won an SEC championship and reached the CFP for the fourth time in the past eight seasons. Stockton played well in his first start, a 23-10 loss to Notre Dame in the CFP quarterfinals. He will go into the offseason as the front-runner to replace Beck, who left for Miami. Georgia has to do a better job of blocking up front, catching the football and tackling on defense. It’s time for Kirby Smart to get back to the basics. The Bulldogs added former Texas A&M receiver Noah Thomas and USC receiver/kick returner Zachariah Branch from the portal. Safeties Jaden Harris (Miami) and Adrian Maddox (UAB) were important pickups with Starks and Jackson leaving. Georgia’s schedule won’t be quite as hard as it was in 2024, but the team still plays Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas at home and Tennessee, Auburn, Florida (in Jacksonville, Florida) and Georgia Tech on the road.
2024 record: 13-1, 9-0 Big Ten
Key returning players: WR Evan Stewart, LB Devon Jackson, LB Teitum Tuioti, LB Matayo Uiagalelei, RB Noah Whittington, C Iapani Laloulu
Key losses: QB Dillon Gabriel, WR Tez Johnson, WR Traeshon Holden, RB Jordan James, OT Josh Conerly Jr., OT Ajani Cornelius, DE Jordan Burch, DT Derrick Harmon, CB Jabbar Muhammad
2025 outlook: The Ducks went 13-0 and captured a Big Ten title in their first season in the league. But their dream season came to a crashing halt with an ugly 41-21 loss to Ohio State in the CFP quarterfinals. Now, Oregon coach Dan Lanning faces a massive rebuilding job on both sides of the ball. But with a No. 1 recruiting class and a few transfer portal pickups on the way, there’s reason to believe the Ducks won’t fall too far. Former five-star prospect Dante Moore, who redshirted in 2024 after transferring to UCLA, is the favorite to replace Gabriel. Stewart’s return is a boost, and receiver Dakorien Moore of Duncanville, Texas, was the jewel of Oregon’s recruiting class. The Ducks are going to need plenty of young players to step up on defense, with only a few starters returning.
2024 record: 10-4, 7-1 ACC
Key returning players: QB Cade Klubnik, WR Antonio Williams, WR Bryant Wesco Jr., LB Sammy Brown, LB Wade Woodaz, DL T.J. Parker, DL Peter Woods, OT Blake Miller
Key losses: RB Phil Mafah, LB Barrett Carter, S R.J. Mickens, TE Jake Briningstool, G Marcus Tate, DL Payton Page
2025 outlook: Maybe Clemson coach Dabo Swinney is doing it the right way, and we were all wrong. Swinney caught plenty of flak for not utilizing the transfer portal after his team’s ugly 34-3 loss to Georgia in the opener. However, the Tigers rebounded to win another ACC title and reach the CFP. They’ll undoubtedly be the team to beat in the league in 2025, with Klubnik, Williams, Woodaz, Parker, Woods and Miller all electing to return for another season. With Williams, Wesco and T.J. Moore coming back, Clemson’s passing game might be even better. Finding a No. 1 tailback, after Mafah’s eligibility ended and Jay Haynes tore his ACL in the ACC championship game, will be a priority in the spring. The defense will have a new leader after Swinney fired coordinator Wes Goodwin and replaced him with Penn State’s Tom Allen. And guess what? Clemson signed three players from the portal: edge rushers Jeremiah Alexander (Alabama) and Will Heldt (Purdue) and receiver Tristan Smith (Southeast Missouri State).
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB Garrett Nussmeier, RB Caden Durham, WR Aaron Anderson, LB Whit Weeks, CB Ashton Stamps, LB Harold Perkins Jr., S Jardin Gilbert
Key losses: WR Kyren Lacy, WR CJ Daniels, OT Will Campbell, OT Emery Jones Jr., TE Mason Taylor, G Garrett Dellinger, G Miles Frazier, LB Greg Penn III, DE Bradyn Swinson
2025 outlook: After the Tigers lost at least three games for the third straight season under Brian Kelly, they seem to be all-in heading into 2025. LSU added more than a dozen players from the transfer portal, including defensive ends Patrick Payton (Florida State) and Jack Pyburn (Florida), receivers Nic Anderson (Oklahoma) and Barion Brown (Kentucky), offensive linemen Braelin Moore (Virginia Tech) and Josh Thompson (Northwestern) and cornerback Mansoor Delane (Virginia Tech). Nussmeier threw for 4,043 yards with 29 touchdowns this past season, and his return might give LSU an edge over other SEC contenders. Rebuilding the offensive line and shoring up a defense that surrendered 24.3 points per game will be areas of focus in the offseason. It has to be better in 2025, right?
2024 record: 11-2, 7-2 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Jake Retzlaff, RB LJ Martin, WR Chase Roberts, WR/KR Keelan Marion, LB Harrison Taggart, LB Isaiah Glasker, LB Jack Kelly, S Tanner Wall
Key losses: CB Jakob Robinson, DE Tyler Batty, DE Isaiah Bagnah, CB Marque Collins, S Crew Wakley, OT Brayden Keim, C Connor Pay
2025 outlook: If the 2024 season was any indication, you could probably pick any of four teams (or more) to win a Big 12 title. Arizona State, BYU and Colorado were unlikely contenders this past season, and the Cougars are bringing back top playmakers Retzlaff, Martin, Roberts and Marion. There are a couple of starters who will have to be replaced on the offensive line, but reinforcements from the transfer portal should help. On defense, four of the top five tacklers should return, although BYU will have to reload up front. Kalani Sitake has built a solid program that should contend in the Big 12 each season. The Cougars won’t play Arizona State or Kansas State during the regular season, and road games at Iowa State and Colorado might be tricky.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB LaNorris Sellers, WR Mazeo Bennett Jr., LT Josiah Thompson, S Jalon Kilgore, DE Dylan Stewart, DE Bryan Thomas Jr., S DQ Smith
Key losses: S Nick Emmanwori, DT T.J. Sanders, DE Kyle Kennard, LB Debo Williams, LB Demetrius Knight Jr., G Kamaar Bell, C Vershon Lee, G Torricelli Simpkins III, RB Raheim Sanders
2025 outlook: After a bounce-back campaign in which the Gamecocks won four more games than in 2023 — including victories over Texas A&M, Missouri and Clemson — they’ll have to replace the heart and soul of their defense this offseason. There are big personnel losses at all three levels, including Sanders and Kennard up front and Emmanwori on the back end. Three additions from the portal — defensive tackle Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy (Texas A&M), LB Shawn Murphy (Florida State) and end Jaylen Brown (Missouri) — might be able to help. Sellers will be working under new offensive coordinator Mike Shula, and improving his pocket presence and consistency will be a priority. Rahsul Faison, who ran for 1,109 yards with eight touchdowns at Utah State in 2024, will get a chance to replace leading rusher Sanders. If Sellers improves, the Gamecocks might be an even bigger surprise in 2025.
2024 record: 11-3, 7-2 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Rocco Becht, RB Carson Hansen, RB Abu Sama III, LB Kooper Ebel, S Jeremiah Cooper, CB Jontez Williams, DL Domonique Orange, LB Caleb Bacon, TE Benjamin Brahmer
Key losses: WR Jaylin Noel, WR Jayden Higgins, C Jarrod Hufford, OT Jalen Travis, S Beau Freyler, DE Joey Petersen, DT J.R. Singleton, CB Myles Purchase, S Malik Verdon, CB Darien Porter
2025 outlook: After one of the best seasons in program history (the Cyclones had never won 10 games or more), there’s one goal left for Matt Campbell to achieve — win the program’s first conference title in 113 years. With Becht and two good tailbacks returning, Iowa State has some firepower returning on offense. But it will greatly miss Noel and Higgins, who each caught at least 80 passes with more than 1,100 yards in 2024. Iowa State is bringing in transfer receivers Xavier Townsend (UCF) and Chase Sowell (East Carolina). A few key contributors are leaving on defense, but much of one of the better secondaries in the FBS is coming back. The Cyclones play Kansas State in Dublin, Ireland, to open the season and will host BYU and Arizona State at home.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: RB Jam Miller, WR Ryan Williams, WR Germie Bernard, C Parker Brailsford, OT Kadyn Proctor, DE LT Overton, LB Justin Jefferson, CB Zabien Brown
Key losses: QB Jalen Milroe, LB Jihaad Campbell, G Tyler Booker, S Malachi Moore, LB Que Robinson, DT Tim Smith
2025 outlook: The Crimson Tide’s first season under coach Kalen DeBoer was frustrating for Alabama fans, who had grown accustomed to Nick Saban’s consistency over the previous 16 seasons. The Tide lost more than three games in a season for the first time since Saban’s first campaign in 2007. Given DeBoer’s track record of success, expect a second-year leap in the SEC — but maybe not back into CFP title contention quite yet. Replacing Milroe will be a focus in the spring; Ty Simpson, onetime Washington transfer Austin Mack and five-star prospect Keelon Russell will battle for the job. The offensive line has a couple of holes to plug, but the receiver corps should be great with Williams and Bernard returning.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-3 Big Ten
Key returning players: QB Luke Altmyer, RB Aidan Laughery, OT J.C. Davis, C Josh Kreutz, CB Xavier Scott, LB Gabe Jacas, LB Dylan Rosiek, SS Matthew Bailey, FS Miles Scott, RB Josh McCray
Key losses: WR Pat Bryant, WR Zakhari Franklin, NT TeRah Edwards, DE Dennis Briggs Jr., LB Seth Coleman
2025 outlook: The Illini are coming off a breakthrough year under coach Bret Bielema, producing the program’s first 10-win season since the 2001 squad went 10-2 and played in the Sugar Bowl. Now, the challenge is putting together back-to-back successful seasons — Illinois hasn’t had consecutive winning campaigns since going 7-6 in 2010 and 2011. All of the pieces are there for the Illini to run it back in 2025, especially after Davis, Scott and others decided to return. Bryant and Franklin will be missed on the perimeter. Bielema added West Virginia’s leading receiver, Hudson Clement, and Ball State’s Justin Bowick from the portal. All five starters are coming back on the offensive line. The Illini surrendered 21.7 points per game in 2024, but they should be better with so many starters returning. Illinois plays three difficult road games at Indiana, Washington and Wisconsin, and hosts USC and Ohio State at home.
2024 record: 11-3, 7-2 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Sam Leavitt, WR Jordyn Tyson, RB Kyson Brown, S Myles Rowser, S Xavion Alford, LB Keyshaun Elliott, LB Jordan Crook, CB Javan Robinson, DE Clayton Smith
Key losses: RB Cam Skattebo, WR Xavier Guillory, LB Caleb McCullough, S Shamari Simmons, C Leif Fautanu
2025 outlook: There’s no question the Sun Devils are going to face an uphill climb in replacing Skattebo’s production on offense. Not only did the All-America running back pile up 1,711 yards with 21 touchdowns on the ground, but he had 605 receiving yards and even threw for a score. Kanye Udoh, who ran for 1,117 yards with 10 touchdowns at Army last season, should be first in line to replace Skattebo. ASU brings back some key players in Leavitt and Tyson, who were outstanding in their first seasons in the desert. Cornerbacks Nyland Green (Purdue) and Adrian Wilson (Washington State) might help shore up a secondary that ranked 81st against the pass (226.7 yards) in 2024.
2024 record: 11-3, 8-0 ACC
Key returning players: QB Kevin Jennings, S Isaiah Nwokobia, G Logan Parr, OT Savion Byrd, OT PJ Williams, S Ahmaad Moses, CB Jaelyn Davis-Robinson
Key losses: RB Brashard Smith, DL Jared Harrison-Hunte, C Jakai Clark, DE Elijah Roberts, LB Kobe Wilson, WR Key’Shawn Smith
2025 outlook: After reaching the ACC title game and the CFP in their first season in the league, the Mustangs will have plenty of work to do in the offseason to get back into contention. The good news is that quarterback Jennings, despite a rough performance in a 38-10 loss to Penn State in a CFP first-round game, is returning. The bad news: There are plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball departing. Leading rusher Brashard Smith, leading receivers Roderick Daniels Jr. and Key’Shawn Smith, and top defensive linemen Roberts and Harrison-Hunte are all departing. SMU coach Rhett Lashlee is bringing in at least a dozen new players through the portal — quarterback Tyler Van Dyke (Wisconsin), center Addison Nichols (Arkansas) and defensive end DJ Warner (Kansas) are among the most notable.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-4 Big 12
Key returning players: QB Avery Johnson, RB Dylan Edwards, WR Jayce Brown, TE Garrett Oakley, C Sam Hecht, LB Austin Romaine, S VJ Payne, LB Desmond Purnell
Key losses: RB DJ Giddens, WR Keagan Johnson, OT Easton Kilty, DE Brendan Mott, LB Austin Moore, S Marques Sigle, CB Jacob Parrish
2025 outlook: The Wildcats won at least nine games for the third straight season in 2024, and their record would have been better if not for dropping three of their last four regular-season games. Johnson is back after piling up 3,317 yards of offense with 32 scores. Replacing Giddens won’t be easy, but onetime Colorado player Edwards ran for 546 yards last season. Brown’s decision to return bolsters the receiver corps, which added Jerand Bradley (Boston College), Jaron Tibbs (Purdue) and Caleb Medford (New Mexico). Mott, Moore and Sigle were key players on defense. Cornerback Amarion Fortenberry (South Alabama), safety Gunner Maldonado (Arizona) and edge player Jayshawn Ross (Alabama) were intriguing pickups from the portal. Kansas State opens the season against Iowa State in Dublin, Ireland, and plays Army at home.
2024 record: 11-2, 8-1 Big Ten
Key returning players: WR Elijah Sarratt, WR Omar Cooper Jr., OT Carter Smith, G Drew Evans, LB Aiden Fisher, CB D’Angelo Ponds, S Amare Ferrell, DE Mikail Kamara
Key losses: QB Kurtis Rourke, RB Justice Ellison, TE Zach Horton, C Mike Katic, LB Jailin Walker, S Shawn Asbury II, NT CJ West, DT James Carpenter
2025 outlook: Fresh off the greatest season in the 126-year history of the Indiana program, in which the Hoosiers won more than nine games for the first time and reached the CFP, coach Curt Cignetti is trying to reload through the transfer portal again. The Hoosiers are bringing in nearly 20 transfers, led by former Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who threw for 3,004 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions in 2024. Tailback Lee Beebe Jr. (UAB), receiver Makai Jackson (Appalachian State) and tight end Holden Staes (Tennessee) were important additions on offense as well. Defensively, the Hoosiers have good production returning at linebacker and cornerback. Kamara’s return gives them a pass-rushing threat, and defensive tackles Hosea Wheeler (Western Kentucky) and Dominique Ratcliff (Texas State) could fill holes in the interior line. Indiana’s nonconference schedule is soft (Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and FCS program Indiana State at home), and it’ll play Big Ten road games at Iowa, Oregon and Penn State.
2024 record: 8-5, 4-4 SEC
Key returning players: C Jake Slaughter, LT Austin Barber, QB DJ Lagway, RB Jadan Baugh, RB Ja’Kobi Jackson, WR Eugene Wilson III, TE Hayden Hansen DE Tyreak Sapp, DE George Gumbs Jr.
Key losses: LB Shemar James, WR Elijhah Badger, WR Chimere Dike. RB Montrell Johnson Jr.. DT Cam Jackson, QB Graham Mertz. P Jeremy Crawshaw, CB Jason Marshall Jr.
2025 outlook: Florida coach Billy Napier likes to say that momentum matters in college football, and his Gators are carrying plenty into the offseason after closing 2024 with a four-game winning streak. End-of-the-season and bowl results can be fool’s gold as well, so it might be a bit premature to get carried away about the Gators. More than anything, Florida fans should have hope after Lagway looked like a star in the making during the streak. The Gators will also bring back Baugh, another impressive freshman in 2024, and Slaughter, their All-America center. J.Michael Sturdivant (UCLA) transferred in to help a depleted receiver corps. Napier also signed two four-star wideout recruits, Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III. The biggest concern: Florida will again play one of the most difficult schedules in the FBS. The Gators have home games against Texas, Georgia (Jacksonville) and Tennessee and road contests at LSU, Miami, Texas A&M and Ole Miss.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-2 SEC
Key returning players: QB Nico Iamaleava, WR Mike Matthews, RB Peyton Lewis, LB Arion Carter, CB Jermod McCoy, CB Rickey Gibson III, LB Jeremiah Telander
Key losses: RB Dylan Sampson, DE James Pearce Jr., WR Squirrel White, WR Bru McCoy, WR Dont’e Thornton Jr., C Cooper Mays, OT John Campbell Jr., G Javontez Spraggins
2025 outlook: After winning nine games or more for the third straight season and reaching the CFP, Josh Heupel has some work to do this offseason, especially on offense. It wouldn’t be surprising to see UT take a step back in 2025. The Volunteers are losing Sampson, the SEC’s leading rusher with 1,491 yards and 22 touchdowns, and their top three receivers (McCoy and Thornton exhausted their eligibility, and White entered the transfer portal). Three starting offensive linemen will also have to be replaced. The Vols added former Arizona guard Wendell Moe Jr. and five-star tackle prospect David Sanders. There’s a solid nucleus coming back on defense, but Tennessee will miss Pearce’s production on the edge. The Volunteers will open the season against Syracuse in Atlanta, and they’ll play Georgia at home and Alabama and Florida on the road.
2024 record: 9-4, 5-3 ACC
Key returning players: WR Chris Bell, RB Isaac Brown, LB TJ Quinn, LB Stanquan Clark, C Pete Nygra, RB Duke Watson, S D’Angelo Hutchinson, OT Trevonte Sylvester
Key losses: QB Tyler Shough, WR Ja’Corey Brooks, DE Ashton Gillotte, DE Ramon Puryear, CB Quincy Riley, S M.J. Griffin, S Tamarion McDonald, G Michael Gonzalez
2025 outlook: The Cardinals lost four games for the second straight season under Jeff Brohm, but there’s no question the 2024 campaign could have been much better. Louisville dropped three games by seven points — against Notre Dame, SMU and Miami — then somehow lost at Stanford 38-35 on Nov. 16. Brohm landed former USC quarterback Miller Moss to lead the offense, and Brown is a blossoming star after breaking Lamar Jackson’s freshman rushing record with 1,173 yards to go with 11 touchdowns. The offensive line should be a strength, even after left tackle Monroe Mills transferred to Virginia. The Cardinals have added 20 players from the portal to shore up both sides of the ball, including top defensive end Clev Lubin (Coastal Carolina), linebacker Darius Thomas (Western Kentucky) and cornerback Jabari Mack (Jacksonville State).
2024 record: 8-5, 5-4 Big Ten
Key returning players: LB Ernest Hausmann, LB Jaishawn Barham, DE TJ Guy, DE Derrick Moore, DL Rayshaun Benny, S Rod Moore, C Greg Crippen, G Giovanni El-Hadi, K Dominic Zvada, TE Marlin Klein
Key losses: DT Mason Graham, DT Kenneth Grant, CB Will Johnson, S Makari Paige, DE Josaiah Stewart, TE Colston Loveland, RB Kalel Mullings, RB Donovan Edwards, OT Myles Hinton
2025 outlook: The Wolverines salvaged coach Sherrone Moore’s first season by stunning rival Ohio State 13-10 and knocking off Alabama 19-13 in the ReliaQuest Bowl. If Michigan is going to build on that momentum, it will have to get better quarterback play from freshman Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 prospect in the 2025 ESPN 300, or Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene. Moore fired offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell and replaced him with Chip Lindsey, who called plays at North Carolina the previous two seasons. Lindsey will try to revamp an offense that failed to produce a 40-yard passing play in 2024. The Wolverines are losing two potential first-round picks in Graham and Grant. They added former Alabama five-star recruit Damon Payne Jr. to help fill one of the holes. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale interviewed with the Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons, so it’s unclear if he’ll remain in college football in 2025.
2024 record: 8-5, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB Marcel Reed, RB Le’Veon Moss, RB Rueben Owens, OT Trey Zuhn III, LB Taurean York, CB Will Lee III, S Dalton Brooks, LB Scooby Williams
Key losses: DE Nic Scourton, DT Shemar Turner, DE Shemar Stewart, DB Jaydon Hill, CB BJ Mayes, WR Noah Thomas, WR Jabre Barber
2025 outlook: Mike Elko’s first season at Texas A&M turned south when the Aggies dropped four of their last five games after a 7-1 start. The good news is Reed is returning, along with Moss and Owens, who suffered season-ending leg injuries in 2024. The Aggies hit the portal hard to beef up their receiver corps, adding NC State’s Kevin Concepcion, Mississippi State’s Mario Craver and Texas Tech’s Micah Hudson (although his future with the team is reportedly unclear). Even better, every offensive starter is expected to return. There are massive holes on the defensive front, and a couple of key players will have to be replaced in the secondary. Texas A&M plays road games at Notre Dame, LSU, Missouri and Texas.
2024 record: 10-3, 6-2 ACC
Top returning players: RB Mark Fletcher Jr., RB Jordan Lyle, OT Markel Bell, G Matthew McCoy, DE Rueben Bain Jr., CB OJ Frederique Jr., OT Francis Mauigoa
Key losses: QB Cam Ward, OT Jalen Rivers, WR Xavier Restrepo, WR Jacolby George, WR Isaiah Horton, RB Damien Martinez, TE Elijah Arroyo, LB Francisco Mauigoa, DE Tyler Baron, DL Simeon Barrow Jr., DB Mishael Powell
2025 outlook: The Hurricanes will have to replace much of the core that looked loaded for bear in 2024 but came up short again with a late-season loss at Syracuse. Ward, a Heisman Trophy finalist, won’t be easily replaced. Miami is banking on former Georgia starter Carson Beck fully recovering from surgery to repair his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his throwing elbow. He isn’t expected to resume throwing until sometime this spring. The Hurricanes will have to restock their receiver room after the top six pass catchers from 2024 left, but they did get CJ Daniels (LSU), one of the top wideouts in the portal. The Hurricanes have also brought in cornerbacks Charles Brantley (Michigan State), Emmanuel Karnley (Arizona) and Ethan O’Connor (Washington State) and safety Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State) to improve a porous secondary. Miami coach Mario Cristobal fired defensive coordinator Lance Guidry and replaced him with Minnesota’s Corey Hetherman.
2024 record: 12-2, 7-0 Mountain West
Key returning players: QB Maddux Madsen, TE Matt Lauter, OT Kage Casey, DT Braxton Fely, DE Jayden Virgin-Morgan, LB Marco Notarainni, S Ty Benefield, S Zion Washington
Key losses: RB Ashton Jeanty, G Ben Dooley, WR Prince Strachan, DE Ahmed Hassanein, S Seyi Oladipo
2025 outlook: The Broncos claimed a second straight Mountain West Conference title and reached the CFP. Now they’ll begin life after Jeanty, who ran for an FBS-high 2,601 yards (890 more than Skattebo, the next-closest player) with 29 touchdowns in 2024. Obviously, it won’t be easy. Sire Gaines and Jambres Dubar will probably share carries, and the Broncos added former Fresno State tailback Malik Sherrod from the portal. The good news is that four starting offensive linemen are returning, including All-MWC tackle Casey on the left side. The defense brings back a plethora of experienced and productive players, starting with leading tackler Benefield and top sack man Virgin-Morgan. The Broncos play at Notre Dame on Oct. 4.
2024 record: 10-3, 5-3 SEC
Key returning players: QB Austin Simmons, WR, Cayden Lee, TE Dae’Quan Wright, LB TJ Dottery, LB Suntarine Perkins, DT Zxavian Harris
Key losses: QB Jaxson Dart, WR Jordan Watkins, WR Tre Harris, WR Antwane Wells Jr., LB Chris Paul Jr., CB Trey Amos, DT Walter Nolen, S Trey Washington, S John Saunders Jr., DE Jared Ivey, DE Princely Umanmielen
2025 outlook: The Rebels invested heavily in the transfer portal to make a run at an SEC championship this past season, but came up short and missed the CFP after a late loss at Florida. Ole Miss will undergo a big face-lift in 2025, with Dart and most of his top receivers leaving, as well as much of the offensive line. Pregame might not be as much fun in the Grove this fall. The defensive line will have a new look, with Umanmielen, Ivey, Nolen and JJ Pegues all departing. There are big losses in the secondary, too. Simmons, a left-handed passer, looked good in limited action in 2024. Kiffin is bringing in De’Zhaun Stribling (Oklahoma State), Deuce Alexander (Wake Forest) and Caleb Odom (Alabama) to replenish the receiver room. Pass rushers Princewill Umanmielen (Nebraska) and Da’Shawn Womack (LSU) were important pickups on defense.
Teams also considered: Auburn, Texas Tech, Missouri, Georgia Tech, Baylor, Duke, Washington, Nebraska, Iowa, Army, Colorado
Sports
Baseball Hall of Fame voting winners and losers: Three stars are headed to Cooperstown — who else got good (or bad) news?
The 2025 Baseball Writers’ Association of America vote is in — and Ichiro Suzuki (one vote shy of being a unanimous selection), CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner are the newest members of the Baseball Hall of Fame. Carlos Beltran fell 19 votes short of the 75% threshold for enshrinement. The new Hall of Famers will join Dick Allen and Dave Parker, who were elected in December by the classic baseball era committee, in Cooperstown in July.
ESPN MLB experts Buster Olney, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers and Jorge Castillo break down what the 2025 vote means and look ahead to what the future holds for this year’s candidates — and those joining the ballot in 2026.
Let’s get into it.
Besides those elected, who is the biggest winner on this year’s ballot?
Olney: The case for a lot of starting pitchers was strengthened by the first-ballot election of CC Sabathia, following his excellent career. In the past, 300 wins was a benchmark that seemed to be important to Hall voters, but that is shifting; Sabathia, with 251 wins, gets in on his first try, overwhelmingly. Sabathia has a career WAR of 61.8, and think about some of the starters who are in the same neighborhood: Zack Greinke (72.8), Luis Tiant (65.6), Tommy John (62.1), David Cone (61.6), Andy Pettitte (60.7) and Mark Buehrle (60.0). There should be a whole lot of starting pitchers making speeches on the Cooperstown stage in the years ahead.
Rogers: Andruw Jones is inching closer and closer to being elected. That’s good news considering he has only two years left on the ballot. At this rate, it’ll be a surprise if he doesn’t get in next year — or at the very least by the time his 10th year of eligibility comes around.
Castillo: I agree with Buster and Jesse on future starting pitchers on the ballot and Andruw Jones. But what about closers? Namely Francisco Rodriguez, who was on for the third time, and Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, who both remain active. It took Billy Wagner all 10 years on the ballot, but he’s a Hall of Famer. He ranks eighth all time in saves. Jansen and Kimbrel rank fourth and fifth, respectively, with more perhaps coming. Rodriguez is sixth. He polled at just 10.2% this year, but Wagner polled at just 10% in his first two years. Wagner was more dominant over the course of his career than them and posted a higher career WAR but, given the increased importance of relievers in the sport, Wagner’s induction is good news for closers in the future.
Doolittle: Even though he came up short, Carlos Beltran getting to 70.3% in his third year makes him a good bet to get in next year. Guess he’s got one more year of penance to serve in the mind of some of the voters. He’s a no-brainer.
Who is the biggest loser from this year’s voting results?
Olney: Manny Ramirez, who now has just one more year left on the ballot with his percentage of voter support barely moving. In 2020, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America removed Kenesaw Mountain Landis’ name from the MVP award that it bestows because of his long history of racism, and yet a huge portion of voters continue to apply Landis’ character clause for steroid-era candidates. As far as the ballot is concerned, Ramirez is in good standing just like anyone else, but a lot of writers won’t let him into the Hall despite some evidence that PED users have already been inducted.
Rogers: There doesn’t seem to be a ton of softening for known PED users as Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez are making very little progress toward the 75% threshold. Ramirez, in particular, is a huge long shot to make the Hall of Fame with just one year left on the ballot. A-Rod still has plenty of time, but minds will have to change significantly for him to get in.
Castillo: Anybody known to have used PEDs. Whether you agree with it or not, the likes of Ramirez and Rodriguez will probably need the Eras Committees to be more lenient for induction.
Doolittle: Fans of historic achievements and a coherent Hall of Fame. I just don’t see Ramirez and A-Rod getting over the line, not if Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens didn’t. Nothing in this year’s number indicated any kind of a shift. To me, it’s absurd.
What is one thing that stands out to you from this year’s voting totals?
Olney: Advanced metrics help the case for some players who don’t have gaudy counting stats, and after two years of voting, it’s pretty clear that Chase Utley is going to be one of those guys. After getting 28.8% in his first year of eligibility, Utley took a significant step forward, advancing to 39.8%. That’s also good news for Buster Posey, another star player who was dominant at his position for a chunk of years but also didn’t necessarily compile gaudy counting stats.
Rogers: Well, that Ichiro did not get in unanimously. Some players simply deserve to be on everyone’s ballot. We really can’t agree on the few that come along every so often that are among the very best of all time — not just their generation? In a sport that creates debate on a daily basis, sometimes debate isn’t needed.
Castillo: While most voters have taken an unyielding tough stance against PED users, they have not viewed Beltran’s transgressions nearly as negatively. That doesn’t mean he hasn’t faced a penalty. Beltran was suspended for a year for his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scheme and was accordingly fired as manager of the Mets before managing a game. Without that, he’s a Hall of Famer by now. Instead, he polled at 70.3% this year, his third on the ballot. He should reach the 75% threshold next year, which bodes well for other players connected to the Astros’ scandal on future ballots.
Doolittle: Russell Martin and Brian McCann both had supporters. For both of them, it seems like those who voted for them must have bought in fully to the FanGraphs’ version of WAR, which goes all-in with pitch-framing metrics. That’s especially true in Martin’s case, but both of them had fWAR totals heavily tilted toward the defensive side of the ball. Obviously, most voters aren’t there yet. For me, I remain uncertain about the measures of that skill, at least the scale of credit that is doled out for it. And “uncertain” isn’t a euphemism but a precise description, as I may yet be convinced in the future. For now, I don’t think we have a full grasp on how to rate 21st-century catchers, and I hate for anyone at that position who *might* be worthy to drop off the ballot.
Which one player’s vote total is most surprising to you?
Olney: Early in Andruw Jones’s candidacy, when he was barely clearing 7% of the vote, he looked like a long shot for election; the question was whether he would remain on the ballot. But now he’s positioned to get in next year, and if not, he’ll definitely get in the following year.
Rogers: Brian McCann. The fact that he and Russell Martin have similar totals just isn’t right — and the fact that he’s falling off the ballot is downright wrong. He’s eighth all time in home runs by catchers, and six of the seven players ahead of him are in the Hall of Fame. And he has a career .262 batting average and was considered good behind the plate. He deserved more than one year of consideration.
Castillo: Ichiro getting all but one vote. Not because he doesn’t deserve all of those votes but because he should’ve been unanimous — like so many other players in the past. For now, Mariano Rivera remains the only player inducted unanimously.
Doolittle: Chase Utley’s numbers tumbled between the last publicly tracked numbers and the release of the final results. I don’t get it. He’s only gone around twice now and should be fine eventually but until I saw the final count, I would have thought he was a good bet to get in next time. Now I doubt it. Guess his supporters have some stumping to do.
Based on this year’s results, who do you think will get in on next year’s ballot?
Olney: Andruw Jones, and Carlos Beltran (as some voters stop applying the sign-stealing demerit). And Utley will be in play. Ramirez will have too far to go in his last year on the ballot, and it’s clear that PED-related suspensions are worthy of a lifetime ban for a lot of voters.
Rogers: Jones, Beltran, who both seem like near-locks, and perhaps Utley — who is in line to make a big leap close to the 75% requirement.
Castillo: Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran and Chase Utley. Next year’s group of first-time candidates won’t be nearly as strong, surely giving Jones and Beltran the bump they need for induction. Utley should be a close call.
Doolittle: Jones and Beltran. Hopefully Utley will get a fresh look, and, among first-timers, Cole Hamels will have support. But it might be a long slog for the cases of both former Phillies.
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Bradford Doolittle
Ichiro Suzuki became the first Japanese-born player to be elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame, falling one vote shy of unanimous selection, and he’ll be joined in the Class of 2025 by starting pitcher CC Sabathia and closer Billy Wagner.
Suzuki, who got 393 of 394 votes in balloting of the Baseball Writers Association of America, would have joined Yankees great Mariano Rivera (2019) as the only unanimous selections. Instead, Suzuki’s 99.746% of the vote is second only to Derek Jeter’s 99.748% (396 of 397 ballots cast in 2020) as the highest plurality for a position player in Hall of Fame voting, per the BBWAA.
“There was a time when I didn’t even get a chance to play in the MLB,” Suzuki told MLB TV. “So what an honor it is to be for me to be here and be a Hall of Famer.”
Suzuki collected 2,542 of his 3,089 career hits as a member of the Seattle Mariners. Before that, he collected 1,278 hits in the Nippon Professional Baseball league in Japan, giving him more overall hits (4,367) than Pete Rose, MLB’s all-time leader.
Suzuki did not debut in MLB until he was 27 years old, but he exploded on the scene in 2001 by winning Rookie of the Year and MVP honors in his first season, leading Seattle to a record-tying 116 regular-season wins.
Suzuki and Sabathia finished first and second in 2001 voting for American League Rookie of the year and later were teammates for two seasons with the Yankees.
Sabathia, who won 251 career games, was also on the ballot for the first time. He was the 2007 AL Cy Young winner while with Cleveland and a six-time All-Star. His 3,093 career strikeouts make him one of 19 members of the 3,000-strikeout club. He was named on 86.8% of the ballots
Wagner’s 422 career saves — 225 of which came with the Houston Astros — are the eighth-most in big league history. His selection comes in his 10th and final appearance on the BBWAA ballot, earning 82.5% for the seven-time All-Star.
Just falling short in the balloting was outfielder Carlos Beltran, who was named on 70.3% of ballots, shy of the 75% threshold necessary for election.
Beltran won 1999 AL Rookie of the Year honors while with Kansas City. He went on to make nine All-Star teams and become one of five players in history with at least 400 homers and 300 stolen bases.
A key member and clubhouse leader of the controversial 2017 World Series champion Astros, whose legacy was tainted by a sign-stealing scandal, Beltran’s selection would have bode well for other members of that squad who will be under consideration in the years to come.
Also coming up short was 10-time Gold Glove outfielder Andruw Jones, who was named on 76.2% of the ballots. Jones saw an uptick from last year’s total (61.6%) and still has two more years of ballot eligibility remaining.
PED-associated players on the ballot didn’t make much headway in the balloting. Alex Rodriguez finished with 37.1%, while Manny Ramirez was at 34.3%.
The three BBWAA electees will join Dick Allen and Dave Parker, who were selected by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee in December, in being honored at the induction ceremony on July 27 at the Clark Sports Center in Cooperstown, New York.
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