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GRAPEVINE, Texas — Before the College Football Playoff selection committee members even began their first meeting here on Monday at the Gaylord Texan Resort, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian lobbed the first public pitch of the season in their direction.

“I’d argue we have the best win in the country right now,” Sarkisian told reporters on Monday at his weekly news conference. “The fact that we go into Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and beat a team that was 52-1 in the previous 53 games.

“I hear so much about how tough the SEC is, but I haven’t seen any of those teams go into Alabama and win either, so I feel pretty good about our team.”

He’s right. The Longhorns have the best nonconference win in the nation. But are they the best one-loss team? Or will that honor go to Oregon when the committee releases its first of six rankings Tuesday evening?

Nothing that has unfolded through the first nine weeks of the season will make this any easier for the 13-member group tasked with determining which of the five remaining undefeated Power 5 teams will be on the bubble this week: Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Florida State or Washington.

Adding to the drama is the ongoing investigation into Michigan, which is facing allegations of cheating by scouting future opponents in person at games. It’s an unprecedented situation for the committee members to consider — or try to ignore.

There are seven sitting athletic directors on the committee, including Michigan’s Warde Manuel, who is here and will recuse himself during voting and discussions about his team. The CFP on Monday declined to answer any specific questions about what Manuel can speak about as it relates to the investigation or how the committee will be instructed to handle it. CFP executive director Bill Hancock referred to his original statement: “The answer continues to be that the committee considers teams that are eligible to participate in a bowl game.”

Selection committee members are rotated every three years, so what might have been important to last year’s group could change this season with three new members in former Nevada coach Chris Ault, Miami (Ohio) athletic director David Sayler and Utah athletic director Mark Harlan, who replaced Jennifer Cohen when she was hired as USC’s AD.

Harlan is the Pac-12’s representative in the group, working alongside the ACC’s Boo Corrigan (NC State), the Big Ten’s Manuel, the SEC’s Mitch Barnhart (Kentucky) and the Big 12’s Gene Taylor (Kansas State). Navy athletic director Chet Gladchuk is entering his second year with the committee.

Other committee members include former Wake Forest, Ohio and Baylor coach Jim Grobe, former Nebraska All-America offensive lineman and NFL All-Pro Will Shields, former Notre Dame linebacker Rod West and Hall of Fame coach Joe Taylor, whose career spanned stops at Florida A&M, Hampton, Virginia Union and Howard. There is one woman in the group, former USA Today sportswriter Kelly Whiteside.

Committee members are directed through written protocol to consider strength of schedule, head-to-head results and outcomes against common opponents. Conference championships are the final piece of the puzzle, but the committee ranks 25 teams each week based only on what they’ve done to date.

These are the biggest questions facing the group, and their answers when the rankings are released will be the first clues to the playoff pecking order in the final season of a four-team field:

Who’s No. 1?

Ohio State, Florida State and Washington have the three best résumés, according to ESPN’s strength of record metric. Georgia’s strength of schedule so far ranks 100th, while Michigan’s ranks 111th.

Ohio State could have the best résumé in the country if both Penn State and Notre Dame are top-15 CFP teams. The committee also would value the Buckeyes’ recent road win against a respectable Wisconsin team. While its offense hasn’t been as consistent or explosive as others, Ohio State’s defense hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in a game all season.

Georgia has won back-to-back national titles and is undefeated, but the Bulldogs might not have any wins against CFP-ranked opponents, and the committee isn’t supposed to let previous seasons influence its voting. Georgia has played well against its toughest competition, though, and it proved Saturday against Florida that it can be a top-four team even without injured tight end Brock Bowers. How the committee evaluates Florida and Kentucky, which are both three-loss teams, will factor into where the Bulldogs are placed. Those are also the only two FBS opponents Georgia has defeated that have a winning record.

Florida State’s best win is against LSU in Orlando, and it trumps anything Georgia and Michigan have done yet, but the Noles’ overtime victory against Clemson no longer looks as impressive because the Tigers are a four-loss team. Washington arguably has the best overall win in the country — against Oregon — but the Huskies have won unconvincingly in each of the past two weeks.

Michigan has looked like the most complete team in the country and is No. 1 in ESPN’s game control metric (though Ohio State is No. 2, and Washington is No. 3). As good as the Wolverines have appeared, their best win is against Rutgers (6-2).

Speaking of Michigan …


How will the allegations against Michigan impact its ranking, if at all?

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Finebaum: It’s time for Jim Harbaugh to take some responsibility

Paul Finebaum reacts to Jim Harbaugh’s passive response to a question about Michigan’s sign-stealing scandal.

It’s highly probable the investigation won’t impact Michigan at all, at least not if the selection committee members follow the written protocol committee chair Corrigan reminds them of at the start of each meeting. If the NCAA or the Big Ten levies a postseason ban, the Wolverines are out, but the investigation process at the NCAA level typically moves at a glacial pace.

ESPN reached out to past committee members to understand how the topic likely will be handled in the room.

“Because these things take so long, I think the committee tries to do things based on their criteria, based on the letter of the law, and I really don’t believe this would come into discussions during our meetings,” one former committee member said, “and if it did, it would be shut down really quickly because it doesn’t go with our standards. If for some reason [the investigation] was fast-tracked, and they vacated wins during the season, obviously that’s a different story.”

That doesn’t mean, though, that committee members won’t be talking about the allegations against Michigan outside the room.

There will likely be some “private disgust and conversations away from the table about how this is a kick in the gut to sportsmanship and, especially among coaches, kind of sacrilegious,” the same former committee member said.

“I think this is totally against everything that is fair and ethical about college football,” another former committee member said.

Another said “it’s almost worse” if a committee member penalizes Michigan because he or she thinks the school might have done something.

“That’s not a metric, right?” the person said. “That could end up really adversely affecting the other rankings, and that’s not right either.”

“I would say at this stage the committee should rank them as they deem appropriate,” the same committee member said. “Keep an eye on their eligibility. But I think they’d have to rank the team based on what they see. There’s plenty to question outside of the alleged cheating. They’re doing everything they’re supposed to against the schedule they’re playing, but there’s not a lot of meat on the bone as far as their opponents yet. So that may be more of a discussion point.”


Who is the highest-ranked one-loss team?

Sarkisian would like to think it’s Texas — and it could be — but Oregon has a strong case and enters the committee’s first conversation after a convincing win at Utah, where the Utes had won 18 straight home games. Harlan, the Utes’ athletic director, can certainly weigh in on what he saw from the Ducks firsthand, just like Kentucky’s Barnes will certainly have some opinions on what he witnessed about Georgia.

The Ducks have three wins against Power 5 teams .500 or better (Colorado, Washington State and Utah) and one victory against what should be a ranked CFP team in Utah. Four road wins is a detail the committee will notice — but so is a win against an FCS school, Portland State.

The Longhorns’ double-digit road victory at Alabama will be a focal point of the committee’s discussions about Texas, and their only loss was to their rival Oklahoma, by four points. Even without injured starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, the Longhorns earned a convincing home win on Saturday against BYU. Following Kansas‘ upset of Oklahoma on Saturday, it’s possible the selection committee has the Jayhawks in their top 25. That would give Texas a second win against a ranked opponent, along with the victory against the Crimson Tide. With the exceptions of Baylor and Houston, all the Longhorns’ wins have come against FBS opponents at .500 or better.

While Alabama is certainly one of the nation’s best one-loss teams, the Longhorns’ head-to-head true road win against the Tide will keep Alabama from leapfrogging Texas — for now.


Will the committee honor Oklahoma’s head-to-head win against Texas?

It would be surprising if the committee did, even though the teams have identical 7-1 records, considering the Sooners lost to Kansas and didn’t play well in their win against UCF. Oklahoma beat Texas 34-30 on Oct. 7, but the selection committee has caused controversy before by discounting a head-to-head result.

In 2021, the group ranked Michigan ahead of Michigan State in spite of the Spartans’ 37-33 October win over their in-state rival. At the time, committee chair Gary Barta said the group deemed Michigan the “more complete team” and better statistically “in just about every category.”

With OU and Texas, there aren’t many glaring statistical differences, though any can be pulled as an example in either team’s favor. The key factors could be Oklahoma’s two-point win against a 3-5 UCF team and the Sooners’ lack of a nonconference win against a Power 5 opponent.


Who’s on the bubble at No. 5?

With five undefeated Power 5 teams remaining, somebody is going to get snubbed. The most likely candidates for this dubious distinction are Washington, Michigan and Georgia.

What’s unique about this first ranking is Michigan could truly be No. 1 or No. 5 in such a subjective system. Michigan is No. 9 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, while Georgia is No. 7 and Washington is No. 3. (Strength of record measures how difficult it is for an average top-25 opponent to achieve the same record against the same opponents.)

The Huskies’ concern is how they’ve played each of the past two weeks, particularly in an unimpressive 15-7 win against Arizona State, which is now 2-6. Washington’s high-powered offense was held without a touchdown against the Sun Devils. On Saturday in a narrow victory against Stanford, Washington had two red zone turnovers. The Huskies’ win against Oregon, though, is looking better than ever after the Ducks’ triumph at Utah.


Where are the contenders’ opponents ranked?

This is where strength of schedule starts to be determined — at least in the committee members’ eyes. One of the most repeated justifications for where a team is ranked has been how many CFP top-25 opponents it has defeated. Well, the committee is the one that sets that bar.

So how good is the Big 12 beyond Texas and Oklahoma? Will the Sooners have defeated any ranked opponents besides Texas? Will Texas get a shot Saturday at another top-25 team in Kansas State?

How much has the ACC fallen with Clemson, North Carolina and Miami having multiple losses? That answer could help determine how much pressure is on Florida State to finish as an undefeated ACC champ.

And where is LSU ranked? Does Georgia have any top-25 wins yet?


Does any two-loss team have a chance?

No two-loss team has made the cut in the nine-year history of the CFP, but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.

While Notre Dame could be the committee’s highest-ranked two-loss team, it’s incredibly difficult for the Fighting Irish to overcome that without a conference championship win against a ranked opponent. It will be hard for the committee to overlook their loss to Louisville, as well.

LSU is in a similar position to that of last season, when it had an opportunity to finish as a two-loss SEC champion and push the committee to see how seriously it would consider the Tigers. Instead, the Tigers finished as a three-loss runner-up to Georgia, and it was a moot point. The same could happen again on Saturday if LSU loses at Alabama.

One other possibility is two-loss Oregon State, which will end the season with back-to-back games against Washington and Oregon.

Keep an eye on where these two-loss teams are ranked Tuesday.

The lowest a team has ever been ranked in the initial CFP ranking and still made the playoff was No. 16 Ohio State in 2014, but the Buckeyes only had one loss and went on to win the national title that year.

What the first ranking really means

Over the first nine years of the four-team format, 21 of the 36 teams (58%) that were in the top four in the initial rankings ended up in the playoff. That leaves room for teams outside Tuesday’s top four to land a spot in the semifinals.

The lowest-ranked teams in the initial rankings to make it to the final four are Ohio State in 2014, when the Buckeyes started at No. 16, and Oklahoma in 2015, when the Sooners started at No. 15. Those are the only teams that were outside the top 10 of the first CFP rankings to make that year’s playoff.

On the other end of the scale, seven of the nine No. 1 teams in the first CFP rankings and 15 of the 18 teams initially ranked in the top two have reached the playoff. The exceptions are No. 1 Mississippi State in 2014, No. 2 LSU in 2015 and No. 1 Tennessee last year.

Only once, in 2020, did all of the top four teams in the initial rankings make it to the playoff.

ESPN’s Chris Low takes a year-by-year look at the top four in the first rankings, where those teams landed in the final rankings and the key elements that shaped each year’s race.


2022

No. 1 in first ranking: Tennessee (sixth in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Ohio State (fourth in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Georgia (first in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Clemson (seventh in final ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 2 Michigan (fifth in first ranking), No. 3 TCU (seventh in first ranking)

No team in the 2022 playoff chase suffered a more crushing defeat than Tennessee, which was shredded 63-38 by unranked South Carolina in the next-to-last week of the regular season. The Vols were No. 5 heading into that Nov. 19 game, and their only loss was to No. 1 Georgia on the road. With Ohio State losing at home to Michigan in the final regular-season game, and TCU falling in the Big 12 championship game to Kansas State the next week, the door would have been open for the Vols to make the playoff as a one-loss team. Things fell just right for the Buckeyes to slide into the final playoff spot when USC blew its chance by losing to Utah (for the second time that season) in the Pac-12 championship game. The Trojans were No. 4 in the CFP rankings heading into their rematch with the Utes, but USC was beaten soundly, 47-24.


2021

No. 1 in first ranking: Georgia (third in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Michigan State (10th in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Oregon (14th in final ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 2 Michigan (seventh in first ranking), No. 4 Cincinnati (sixth)

Michigan State seemed to be in great shape after beating Michigan 37-33 on Oct. 30 to secure the No. 3 spot in the first rankings. But that didn’t last. The Spartans lost 40-29 the next week at Purdue and were routed 56-7 by Ohio State two weeks after that. And the Wolverines only picked up steam after their close loss in East Lansing. They reeled off five straight victories, including a 42-27 win over Ohio State (their first in the series in 10 years) and earned their first playoff appearance. Meanwhile, Cincinnati went unbeaten during the regular season to become the first Group of 5 team to make the playoff, benefiting from Oregon losing twice to Utah in the final three weeks.


2020

No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Notre Dame (fourth in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Ohio State (third in final ranking)

The selection committee’s top four remained intact in the final rankings, although Texas A&M lost just one game (to Alabama) while playing an all-SEC schedule during the shortened COVID-19 season and thought it deserved the No. 4 spot over a Notre Dame team that lost by 24 points to Clemson in the ACC championship game.


2019

No. 1 in first ranking: Ohio State (second in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: LSU (first in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Alabama (13th in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Penn State (10th in final ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 3 Clemson (fifth in first ranking), No. 4 Oklahoma (ninth)

Alabama transfer quarterback Jalen Hurts helped Oklahoma rebound from a 48-41 loss at Kansas State on Oct. 26 to win its next five games, including a 30-23 overtime win against Baylor in the Big 12 championship game, to climb to the No. 4 spot. Georgia had been No. 4 the previous four weeks but slipped to No. 5 in the final rankings after losing 37-10 to LSU in the SEC championship game.


2018

No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: LSU (11th in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Notre Dame (third in final ranking)

Other playoff team: No. 4 Oklahoma (seventh in first ranking)

Similar to the 2019 season, Hurts played a big role in how the final 2018 playoff rankings shook out, only this time he was playing for Alabama. Hurts came off the bench for an injured Tua Tagovailoa to pass for a touchdown and run for another in rallying Alabama past Georgia in the fourth quarter for a 35-28 win in the SEC championship game. That loss cost the Dawgs a spot in the playoff, as they fell from No. 4 to No. 5 in the final rankings. It also cleared the way for the Sooners to move from No. 5 to No. 4 after beating Texas in the Big 12 championship game for their seventh straight win.


2017

No. 1 in first ranking: Georgia (third in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Alabama (fourth in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Notre Dame (14th in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Clemson (first in final ranking)

Other playoff team: No. 2 Oklahoma (fifth in first ranking)

The team that didn’t make the playoff in 2017 that most shaped the field was Auburn. In a span of three weeks to end the regular season, Auburn beat No. 1 Georgia and No. 1 Alabama to move to No. 2 in the next-to-last rankings despite having two losses. But in a rematch with Georgia in the SEC championship game, Auburn lost 28-7 to the Dawgs, paving the way for both Alabama and Georgia to move back into the top four and eventually play for the national championship. Alabama had been No. 5 and Georgia No. 6 the week before in the committee’s rankings. If Auburn had won the SEC title game, the Tigers would have been the only two-loss team ever to make the playoff field.


2016

No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Michigan (sixth in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Texas A&M (did not make final ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 3 Ohio State (sixth in first ranking), No. 4 Washington (fifth)

Penn State fans still grimace over this one. The Nittany Lions finished one spot out of the playoff, at No. 5 in the final rankings. That’s despite beating Ohio State head-to-head and winning their last nine games, including a 38-31 decision over Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game. Ohio State was the Big Ten team that made the playoff, though, as the Buckeyes had just one loss as compared to the Nittany Lions’ two losses. Eventual national champion Clemson survived a 43-42 home loss to Pittsburgh on Nov. 12 to finish No. 2 in the final rankings. Pitt was unranked at the time of the game but was No. 23 in the committee’s final rankings.


2015

No. 1 in first ranking: Clemson (first in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: LSU (20th in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Ohio State (seventh in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Alabama (second in final ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 3 Michigan State (seventh in first ranking), No. 4 Oklahoma (15th)

One of the biggest kicks during the College Football Playoff era was courtesy of Michael Geiger, whose 41-yard field goal as time expired lifted Michigan State to a 17-14 win over Ohio State, snapping the Buckeyes’ 23-game winning streak. Ohio State was No. 3 entering the Nov. 21 game. The Spartans won their next two, including a 16-13 win over Iowa in the Big Ten championship game, to make the playoff. The Iowa-Michigan State tilt was essentially a play-in, as the Hawkeyes came in at No. 4 and the Spartans were No. 5 in the committee’s rankings. Oklahoma made its big move up from No. 15 after beating No. 6 Baylor on the road Nov. 14 then hammering No. 6 Oklahoma State 58-23 two weeks later to win the Big 12 championship game.


2014

No. 1 in first ranking: Mississippi State (seventh in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Florida State (third in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Auburn (19th in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Ole Miss (ninth in final ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 1 Alabama (sixth in first ranking), No. 2 Oregon (fifth), No. 4 Ohio State (16th)

Three SEC teams in the initial playoff rankings? The rest of the college football world was fuming, but none of the three ended up in the final four. Eventual national champion Ohio State was the comeback story that season. The Buckeyes lost in Week 2 at home by two touchdowns to a Virginia Tech team that dropped six games. Ohio State also lost a pair of quarterbacks — Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett — to injury but clawed back to secure the No. 4 spot in the final rankings, moving up from No. 5 after a 59-0 drubbing on Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game. Nobody was more upset that season than TCU. At the time, the Big 12 didn’t have a championship game, and the Horned Frogs, who were No. 3 in the next-to-last rankings, closed the regular season by drubbing a 2-10 Iowa State team 55-3. That clinched the Frogs a share of the Big 12 championship, but it wasn’t enough to impress the committee, as TCU somehow fell to No. 6 in the final rankings.

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The anticipated archvillains for every top 25 college football team

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The anticipated archvillains for every top 25 college football team

You know it as soon as the college football schedule drops. The game that’s circled, the player you love to hate, the rival coach who seems to especially delight in destroying your team’s season.

We’re getting into the dog days of summer, with the only relief being the crisp autumn days of the college football season are rapidly approaching. But that means the enemies are lining up at the gates.

Today, we’re doing recon on where each post-spring top 25 team stands and who stands in their way. These are each teams’ potential future villains, the coaches, players and teams that have the chance to make the whole season go south. — Dave Wilson

1. Penn State: Ryan Day

Penn State coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions have been unable to get over the hump against Ohio State, especially since Day took over in Columbus. The Nittany Lions have dropped six straight to Day, culminating with last year’s defeat, as fourth-ranked Ohio State rallied to topple the third-ranked Nittany Lions in State College 20-13. This season, Day will have a new starting quarterback and inexperience on both sides of the ball coming off last year’s national championship. Penn State will counter with one of the most experienced teams in the country, headlined by veteran quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Franklin even hired away Day’s defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles. The Nittany Lions travel to Columbus on Nov. 1 in a showdown that figures to carry major playoff implications. — Jake Trotter


Clemson’s arch enemy for this season is obvious: Sellers. The Tigers watched the South Carolina quarterback dodge defenders, break tackles and keep one play after another alive last season in a stunning Gamecocks win that nearly derailed Clemson’s season. Clemson will be looking for revenge, of course, but new defensive coordinator Tom Allen will be more focused on finding answers for the elusive Sellers. There are lofty expectations at Clemson this season, and the Tigers don’t necessarily need a win over South Carolina to achieve them, but nobody will sleep soundly in the state if the 2025 defense coughs up another win to its biggest rival. — David Hale


3. Texas: Oklahoma

In Week 1, the Longhorns get a rubber match against an Ohio State team that eliminated Texas from the playoff last season, but the results of this game leave a lot of runway for either team to get back into this year’s postseason. Yet, there is no bigger test every year for Texas than Oklahoma in Dallas. This one’s a bit of a mystery, with the Sooners bringing in new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer, who played high school football in the Dallas area, from Washington State. The new-look Sooners could either be a launching point or a big speed bump in the SEC schedule for a Longhorns team with national championship aspirations. — Dave Wilson


4. Georgia: Alabama

The last coach Georgia fans ever wanted to see on the other sideline is doing television. Nick Saban was 5-1 against Kirby Smart, but even with Saban in his first year of retirement last season, Alabama still beat Georgia in a wild 41-34 game in Tuscaloosa the final weekend of September. Georgia has lost nine of the past 10 games in the series and hasn’t beaten Alabama in the regular season since 2007, Saban’s first season in Tuscaloosa, when the Mark Richt-coached Bulldogs won 26-23 in overtime. Georgia has vaulted to elite status under Smart, but a second straight loss to DeBoer — especially with this year’s game being played in Athens — wouldn’t sit well with anybody in Athens. — Chris Low


5. Ohio State: Sherrone Moore

Michigan coach Sherrone Moore has become a problem for the Buckeyes. He might not wear the villain outfit quite as well as predecessor Jim Harbaugh did, but Moore’s rise in coaching — as Wolverines offensive line coach, offensive coordinator and now head coach — has coincided with Ohio State’s longest losing streak (four games) to its archrival since 1991. Moore served as acting head coach during Harbaugh’s Big Ten-imposed suspension in 2023, as Michigan punched its ticket to the Big Ten championship game. He then earned the permanent role and pulled off one of the more stunning upsets in the history of The Game in November in Columbus. The story of Moore’s coaching career at Michigan is really just beginning, but he has already demonstrated his ability to win the biggest games. — Adam Rittenberg


6. LSU: Daytime home games

LSU fans have been known to curse day games, especially in the sweltering September heat. It’s at night when Tiger Stadium (and typically LSU’s football team) shines. In 2025, the only SEC home game that LSU will definitely play at night is the league opener against Florida on Sept. 13. Home games against South Carolina and Texas A&M fall into the “flex” window, meaning they could start as early as 3:30 p.m. ET or as late as 8 p.m. ET. Since 2000, LSU is 112-15 in Saturday night home games at Tiger Stadium. Brian Kelly has faced just two nationally ranked SEC opponents in day games at Tiger Stadium and is 1-1. — Low


7. Notre Dame: Miami

No Notre Dame players were alive for the 1988 clash with Miami, and Fighting Irish coach Marcus Freeman was only 2 years old. But longtime Domers will always view the U as a true villain, and new Miami quarterback Carson Beck, the transfer from Georgia, sparks a range of reactions. Notre Dame scored a signature win in the CFP semifinal at the Sugar Bowl against a Georgia squad that had lost Beck to injury. When healthy, Beck is talented enough to villainize a Notre Dame defense replacing standouts Xavier Watts, Jack Kiser, Rylie Mills and others and appearing in its first game under new coordinator Chris Ash. Early season games are one of the only knocks against Freeman, who has dropped at least one September game in each of his three seasons as Irish coach. Notre Dame needs a strong start with its two most talented opponents — Miami and Texas A&M — leading off the schedule. — Rittenberg


8. Oregon: Ohio State

Is it too simple to say Ohio State? Maybe just Jeremiah Smith after he caught seven passes for 187 yards and two touchdowns in the Rose Bowl drubbing that the Buckeyes put on the Ducks to end their undefeated season? The good news for Dan Lanning & Co. (or bad depending on how you look at it) is that Oregon will not face Ohio State in the regular season this season and a rematch could only occur in the Big Ten title game or in the College Football Playoff. Penn State enters the fray this season as a much-hyped conference contender that the Ducks will have to face and yet it feels like Oregon and Ohio State are still the cream of the crop for the conference and are likely to continue seeing each other on the sport’s biggest stages. — Paolo Uggetti


9. Alabama: Vanderbilt

Remember when Saban won 100 straight games against unranked opponents, the longest such streak in the AP poll era? Now, all of a sudden, the Crimson Tide are 2-3 against their past five unranked foes, a stretch that started with a stunning 40-35 loss at Vanderbilt last season, which came only a week after DeBoer beat No. 2-ranked Georgia in his SEC opener as Alabama’s head coach. It was the first time Alabama had lost to Vanderbilt since 1984. Alabama will get its shot at payback this season on Oct. 4 when Vanderbilt visits Bryant-Denny Stadium. The loss to Vanderbilt a year ago ignited what was the first three-loss regular season for Alabama since 2010. Judging by some of the comments from Alabama players this offseason, nobody will need to remind the Tide when the Commodores are coming to town. — Low


10. BYU: Utah

It’s always Utah. The “Holy War” frequently manages to surprise us. A year ago, BYU was coming off a 5-7 season and Utah was considered the Big 12 favorite. This time, we have a full reversal: The Utes are the ones coming off a disappointing 5-7 campaign and the Cougars are ranked the highest of any Big 12 team on this list. (Granted, this ranking doesn’t account for the sudden uncertainty BYU is dealing with at the QB position.) We’ll already have a decent idea of BYU’s capabilities by the time Utah visits Provo in Week 8, but the Holy War could serve as a Big 12 title elimination game, and it will definitely impact the tenor of the season for both teams. It always does. — Connelly


Purdue didn’t generate many highlights in 2024, but it gave Illinois a major scare at Memorial Stadium, erasing a 24-3 deficit to force overtime before falling 50-49. Among the Boilermakers’ stars that day was tight end Max Klare, who recorded his first 100-yard receiving performance, finishing with 133 yards on six catches. Klare, like most of Purdue’s best players, transferred following the team’s coaching change. He landed at Ohio State, which will visit Memorial Stadium on Oct. 11. Illinois certainly will be aware of Klare but also must contain Heisman Trophy contender Jeremiah Smith and several other standout wide receivers, if it wants any chance at knocking off the defending national champions. — Rittenberg


12. Arizona State: Regression

Arizona State had one of the hottest teams in the country at the end of 2024 and returns far more of last year’s production than most. The Sun Devils appear primed for a run at a repeat Big 12 title. The problem: No one repeats in the Big 12. ASU’s biggest archrival could simply be regression to the mean. Among current members, the past six teams to reach the Big 12 championship before 2024 — 2020 Iowa State, 2021 Baylor, 2021 Oklahoma State, 2022 Kansas State, 2022 TCU and 2023 Oklahoma State — went a combined 28-9 in one-score finishes during their title runs. The following seasons, they went a combined 9-22 in such games. ASU went 6-2 in one-score finishes last season. It’s really hard to do that twice in a row, and in the Big 12 it appears impossible. — Connelly


13. South Carolina: LSU

South Carolina has its share of hated rivals — Georgia, Clemson, anyone else who plays “Sandstorm” during timeouts — but as the Gamecocks look to make a playoff run in 2025, enemy No. 1 might well be LSU. The Bayou Bengals have dominated South Carolina over the years, holding an 18-2 all-time record and winning eight straight matchups dating to 1995. More recently, LSU escaped Columbia with a 36-33 win last season in which the Gamecocks blew a four-point lead with less than 2 minutes to play. That loss ultimately cost South Carolina a playoff bid, but the Gamecocks feel certain they’re a far better team than they were then. If they can exact some revenge this time, it’ll be a big step toward reaching those lofty goals. — Hale


14. Iowa State: Kansas State

There’s no such thing as a Week 0 elimination game, but we get the closest thing to it in Dublin to start the 2025 season. The annual (for now) Farmageddon battle between ISU and Kansas State will take place in particularly green pastures this time, and it will pit two preseason top 20 teams with major Big 12 title hopes. Last year, the Cyclones’ defense played a perfect fourth quarter against the Wildcats, allowing just one yard in 12 snaps to win 29-21 and advance to the conference title game. This time, someone will be 0-1 in conference play before Week 1 even arrives. This is about as big a season opener as you could hope for. — Connelly


15. SMU: TCU

SMU was 3-17 against TCU coaches in the Dennis Franchione/Gary Patterson era, then Sonny Dykes won two straight against the Frogs in Dallas. Once he defected for the purple pastures of Fort Worth, he then won his first two against the Mustangs. Last year, however, SMU got its revenge in a 66-42 pummeling of TCU in a game in which Dykes was ejected. This year, the two teams, which have met 103 times, are scheduled for their last Iron Skillet game for the foreseeable future. This one will have some heat. — Wilson


16. Texas Tech: Baylor

Red Raiders coach Joey McGuire got his start in college coaching at Baylor under Matt Rhule and was promoted under Dave Aranda. He left in midseason in 2021 when he got the Tech job. While trying to right the ship in Lubbock, he’s gone 1-2 against Aranda, including a 59-35 home loss last season. Since Mike Leach was fired, the Red Raiders are 5-10 against the Bears, a team they’ll need to eclipse with their big ambitions to sit atop the Big 12. — Wilson


17. Indiana: UCLA

Coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers did a great job of retaining players and coaches from a 2024 team that won a school-record 11 games and reached the CFP. But two who got away — a coach and a player — landed with UCLA, which visits Indiana on Oct. 25. New Bruins offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri coached Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke last year and had spent the previous three seasons on Cignetti’s staff at James Madison. He might know the secrets to attacking Indiana’s defense. Defensive back Jamier Johnson transferred from Indiana to UCLA after recording 35 tackles and an interception last fall for the Hoosiers. Johnson, who began his college career at Texas, will be part of a reshaped UCLA secondary. — Rittenberg


18. Kansas State: Iowa State

As mentioned above, it’s all about the season opener against Iowa State. It will be the first opportunity for quarterback Avery Johnson and K-State to prove that last year’s all-or-nothing offense has matured a bit. The Wildcats averaged 37.6 points in wins and only 15.8 in losses. They scored TDs on 75% of red zone drives in wins and 42% in losses. They committed more turnovers in the four losses (nine) than in the nine wins (seven). You could almost say that this means K-State’s biggest archrival is K-State. Regardless, Week 0 is enormous. Turnovers and later-down failures cost it dearly against Iowa State last season, and it gets an immediate opportunity to right one of 2024’s wrongs. — Connelly


19. Florida: Georgia

Florida has plenty of teams it considers rivals, but only one on the schedule this season has beaten the Gators four years in a row. That would be Georgia, which has absolutely dominated them since Kirby Smart took over the program in 2016. Smart is 7-2 against Florida, and just like that record, has finished ahead of Florida in the SEC standings seven times. We all know the Gators closed last season strong with big wins over LSU and Ole Miss, but the true litmus test for where this program is — and whether it can return to elite status under coach Billy Napier — is the Georgia game. — Adelson


20. Michigan: Ohio State

Even though the Wolverines have won four straight in the series, Ohio State remains Michigan’s archvillain for obvious reasons. The Buckeyes rattled off eight straight wins before Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh turned the tide in 2021 with the first of the four straight victories. Coach Sherrone Moore salvaged an up-and-down, first full season with a stunning 13-10 victory over Ohio State in Columbus last year. Much of that Ohio State national championship team has moved on to the NFL. But the postgame flag-plant fracas at the Horseshoe last year reinforced why this bitter rivalry has never carried more vitriol for either side. The last thing the Wolverines want this season is to watch Ohio State return the favor by planting its flag on the Block M at the Big House. — Trotter


21. Miami: Syracuse

Georgia Tech is not on the schedule this year or that would be the slam dunk choice. We could go with the obvious “traditional arch nemesis” Notre Dame, which is visiting South Florida for the first time since 2017. But there is another team that gets to wear the villain hat, if only for this season: Syracuse. That’s right, the team that beat Miami 42-38 in the 2024 regular-season finale to keep the Hurricanes out of the ACC championship game visits Hard Rock Stadium on Nov. 8. While both rosters have turned over since that game, the head coaches remain the same and there might be some added fuel to the fire. — Adelson


22. Louisville: Kentucky

In 2022, Louisville was 10-1 and favored against rival Kentucky. The Cardinals lost. In 2021, they were 7-4 and lost. It was an all-too-familiar story. Since 2016, Louisville has lost as a favorite against its rival three times — often sullying otherwise impressive seasons. Last year, the Cardinals had no such worries as they beat up on the Wildcats, who were slogging through a down season, but Jeff Brohm & Co. know the history too well to assume that will be the start of a trend. There are tougher and bigger games on Louisville’s schedule this season, but none that will mean more than beating those hated Cats. — Hale


23. Texas A&M: Steve Sarkisian

Sarkisian has done a masterful job reloading Texas to meet its potential. Last year, he took the Longhorns into Kyle Field and spoiled the Aggies’ chances of getting into the SEC championship game, and this year, A&M visits Austin for the first time since 2010 where Arch Manning hysteria dominates the headlines and the Longhorns will be seeking a coronation for a playoff run. Sarkisian, an avowed fan of college rivalries and traditions, will look to push all the right buttons to ignite his team. — Wilson


24. Ole Miss: Mississippi State

Don’t get anybody in Oxford started on those “dreaded” cowbells clanging away from fans of the “school down south.” That school being bitter rival Mississippi State, whose former coach, Dan Mullen, used to refer to Ole Miss as the “school up north.” Either way, nobody in the SEC is particularly fond of the Mississippi State cowbells, in no way a banned artificial noisemaker. Yes, that’s a joke. But to Ole Miss fans, they would rather hear nails scratching on a chalkboard. The good news for the Rebels is that they’ve lost only once in the past five games between the schools but will get a heavy dose of the cowbells this Nov. 28 in Starkville. — Low


25. Oklahoma: Texas

In the Wishbone era, and then once again after Bob Stoops took over then ceded way to Lincoln Riley, the Oklahoma quarterback position made college football kings. In recent years, Landry Jones, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams and Dillon Gabriel all put up huge numbers. But the Sooners have fallen back a little and Texas is rolling into the Cotton Bowl with its own football royalty in Arch Manning. Oklahoma needs to right the ship, and all eyes will be on Dallas and where the program stands in the SEC era. — Wilson

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Passan finds the perfect trade deadline addition for every MLB contender

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Passan finds the perfect trade deadline addition for every MLB contender

It’s posturing season. Major League Baseball’s trade deadline goes through the same mechanics every year. Following June calls to indicate interest in players, early-to-mid-July brings out the first offers, which are inevitably imbalanced toward the teams willing to move players and, accordingly, holding all the leverage.

It’s the reason trades before the All-Star break are rare — and also a reminder that just because a match isn’t there now, it doesn’t preclude one going forward. So many elements play into a deadline (the keenness of teams to send away quality players, the willingness of contenders to make a move over the objection of their analytical model, the standings, recent performance and dozens of others) that to link team and player in a potential deal is a fool’s errand.

Well, consider this slightly foolish. Needs are needs, and even the best teams in baseball have them. Who would be the best players to fill them? This exercise endeavors to answer that.

Below are the 16 teams in MLB with winning records. Certainly a cadre of under-.500 teams — the Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins, Arizona Diamondbacks chief among them — could work their way into the conversation despite their slow starts. For now, though, these are the best teams baseball has to offer, and for each we found a fit among available players that makes too much sense not to pursue.

Teams are listed in order of record by league.


American League

59-35, first place, AL Central

Weakness: Swing-and-miss relievers

Best match: David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates

Cade Smith (Cleveland Guardians) and Griffin Jax (Minnesota Twins) are the right answers, but the likelihood of Detroit pulling off an in-division deal to get a swing-and-miss reliever is minimal. Which leaves Bednar, who has rebounded from an atrocious 2024 to recapture his form of 2021-23, when he was among the five best relievers in baseball. With a high-90s fastball, a hard-breaking curveball and a mean splitter, Bednar’s arsenal would give the Tigers a ninth-inning option beyond Will Vest or Tommy Kahnle.

Beyond the bullpen, the Tigers don’t need much. They can really hit, with eight of their nine regulars sporting slugging percentages of .415 or better. Manager AJ Hinch’s constant tinkering — the most Detroit has used one lineup this year is four times — doesn’t just work, it is an identity the team embraces.

And as much as the Tigers could use capital from their tremendous farm system to add to this team, they don’t necessarily need it. This is the second year of a window that’s bound to last. Securing Bednar’s services for two playoff runs is the sort of incremental step needed to capitalize in a down American League.


55-38, first place, AL West

Weakness: Starting pitching and left-handed hitting

Best match: Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

The Astros lost Alex Bregman to free agency, traded Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs, have spent most of the season without Yordan Alvarez, their best hitter, and currently sport a rotation that includes 26- and 28-year-old rookies. There is no reason they should be this good. And yet they are.

So even if the cost is heavy and eats into a farm system that’s among the worst in MLB, targeting a pitcher of Lugo’s ilk would give them among the nastiest postseason rotations in the game and further entrench the Astros as a force. Lugo’s peripherals suggest he’s in line for regression but even if his ERA does jump from its current 2.67 mark, Lugo’s nine-pitch mix gives him the flexibility to adjust in-game — a luxury shared by only a handful of starters in the game.


54-39, first place, American League East

Weakness: Starting pitching

Best match: Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

Adding Keller solves multiple problems at once. The 29-year-old is producing the best season of his seven-year career with the Pirates, averaging nearly six innings a start and giving up only seven home runs in 106⅓ innings. The Blue Jays need rotation help — and, in a deal for Keller, could try to get David Bednar, Dennis Santana or Caleb Ferguson from the Pirates to complement an already-good bullpen riding breakouts from Braydon Fisher and Brendon Little.

Further, Keller remains under contract for three years at a reasonable $54.5 million, and with starters Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer free agents after this year and Kevin Gausman following the 2026 season, Toronto covets controllable starting pitching in a market that, at the moment at least, doesn’t offer much.

Pittsburgh could hold onto Keller and march into 2026 with a staff of Keller, Paul Skenes, Mike Burrows, Bubba Chandler and Bailey Falter — easily a top-10 rotation, maybe better — with Hunter Barco not far behind. But the Pirates desperately need bats and while Toronto’s farm system is not teeming with them, the Blue Jays can cobble together enough to make a deal worth Pittsburgh’s while.


51-41, second place, AL East (first wild card)

Weakness: Third baseman and pitching

Best match: Eugenio Suárez, Arizona Diamondbacks

This could be Seth Lugo. Or Emmanuel Clase of the Guardians. Or any number of players. The Yankees are not going to stop at one player this deadline. For all their strengths — and there are plenty — they have too many weaknesses to take half-measures.

Suárez is an excellent first step. His power is undeniable, a perfect fit in the middle of any lineup. He plays third base, a black hole for New York this season. The Yankees could two-birds-one-stone a deal and get Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly from Arizona, too. But Suárez is the main target, because even if other third-base options exist — Nolan Arenado in St. Louis, Ryan McMahon in Colorado, Ke’Bryan Hayes in Pittsburgh — they’re owed significant money and are under contract for multiple years. Suárez’s expiring contract would allow the Yankees a trial run, and if he thrives in the Bronx, all they would need to bring him back is cash.


50-43, third place, AL East (second wild card)

Weakness: Relief pitching

Best match: Griffin Jax, Minnesota Twins

Remember, now, this is the best match, not necessarily the likeliest. Minnesota is notoriously value-conscious in its dealings, and the Twins will put an exceptionally high price on Jax, whom they regard as one of the best relievers in baseball — an opinion shared by most teams. With a fastball that sits at 97 mph and a dastardly slider, he is a setup man in name and a closer in stuff — precisely what the Rays, who are missing Manuel Rodriguez and Hunter Bigge, could use.

The Rays aren’t typically the sort of team to overpay for relievers, even ones with two additional years of club control. If not Jax, they could opt for Brock Stewart (Twins), who likewise has a vast array of swing-and-miss stuff — and two more years of team control as well.


48-44, second place, AL West (tied for third wild card)

Weakness: Corner infielder

Best match: Josh Naylor, Arizona Diamondbacks

Though the Mariners are managing with Donovan Solano and Luke Raley at first base, upgrading to Naylor would transform Seattle’s lineup for the better. Whether it’s slotting him behind J.P. Crawford to ensure Cal Raleigh comes to the plate with more baserunners, or sticking him in between Raleigh and Randy Arozarena to do the cleaning up himself, Naylor is a high-average, low-strikeout slugger whose quality at-bats would help transform a solid Seattle lineup into something more.

Pairing him with Eugenio Suárez would plug both of Seattle’s holes, and certainly the Mariners have the prospect capital to pull off the double. Considering the state of their pitching — a tremendous rotation and a Gabe SpeierMatt BrashAndrés Muñoz endgame — the Mariners need only a depth reliever to feel comfortable. Upgrading the lineup is the distinct priority over the next three weeks, and executives expect Seattle to act aggressively.


49-45, fourth place, AL East (tied for third wild card)

Weakness: Relief pitching

Best match: Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals

Red Sox relievers walk too many hitters and don’t strike out enough. Take away Aroldis Chapman — the best reliever in the AL this season — and the Red Sox have a middle-of-the-pack bullpen. Getting Helsley from St. Louis would give Boston arguably the top setup-closer combination in baseball and go a long way toward supporting a rotation that has been among the game’s best over the past month.

Boston has the makings of a very good team in the second half. Alex Bregman will return soon. Roman Anthony has an OPS of nearly 1.000 over his past 10 games. Ceddanne Rafaela is one of the best center fielders in baseball. Carlos Narváez is a gem. Wilyer Abreu, Trevor Story, even Abraham Toro — everyone is contributing. A reliever or two and another starter would make the Red Sox the sort of contender they envisioned being at the beginning of the season.


National League

56-38, first place, NL West

Weakness: Pitching depth

Best match: Jhoan Durán, Minnesota Twins

The Dodgers enter every deadline season seeking a major move, and the 6-foot-5, 230-pound Durán qualifies. With a fastball that averages over 100 mph, a splinker that sits at 98 and a curveball to keep hitters off balance, Durán is pitching as well as ever. He hasn’t given up a home run this season, and his 1.52 ERA is third in MLB for pitchers with at least 40 innings.

The asking price will be hefty. Durán comes with two more years of team control beyond this season. The Dodgers don’t have time to waste on taking advantage of Shohei Ohtani‘s prime, though, and assembling a team with standouts in all facets is a reasonable goal. For a group threatening to approach a major league record for pitchers used in a season — the Dodgers are at 35, the record is 42 from Seattle in 2019 — adding another wouldn’t in and of itself be a needle-mover. If that one happens to be Durán, the Dodgers could theoretically trot out him, Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates and Alex Vesia to make their bullpen every bit as scary as the rest of their team.


Chicago Cubs

54-38, first place, NL Central

Weakness: Starting pitching

Best match: Sandy Alcántara, Miami Marlins

The market for Alcántara might not reflect his résumé. A former Cy Young Award winner, the 29-year-old has been arguably the worst pitcher in baseball this season, with an ERA just above 7.22. Some teams — even ones that could desperately use starting pitching — see the remaining two years and $38.3 million on Alcántara’s deal as an impediment to any trade, particularly with Marlins GM Peter Bendix asking for a haul in return.

Whether it’s Alcántara or another starter, the Cubs are a good starter away from having one of the top teams in baseball. Their offense is undeniable. Their defense is magnificent. Their bullpen has been a pleasant surprise. Adding a playoff-caliber starter, even if it pushes Chicago past the $241 million luxury-tax threshold, would reward a team that has brought excitement back to the North Side of Chicago.


54-39, first place, National League East

Weakness: Bullpen and outfield

Best match: Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians

As long as the Phillies are aiming high — and nobody aims high quite like Dave Dombrowski — perhaps they could take a run at landing both Clase and Steven Kwan from Cleveland. Maybe it would take Andrew Painter. Maybe Aidan Miller. Maybe Justin Crawford. Regardless, the Phillies’ window is closing, and getting both club control (Clase is under contract through 2028 and Kwan through 2027) and cost certainty (Clase is due $26 million for the next three years and Kwan less than $20 million for two) would make dealing high-end prospects significantly more palatable.

If Cleveland ultimately balks at moving Clase, it doesn’t change the imperative: Philadelphia needs to address its weaknesses. This bullpen is not suited to win a playoff series, much less the World Series. The consequence of bad relief pitching manifested itself in the postseason last year, when the New York Mets filleted Phillies relievers for 17 runs in 12⅔ innings. No other bullpen gave up more than nine runs in the division series. Clase (or Jhoan Durán or any shutdown reliever, really) is just a start. An on-the-fly overhaul is what this team needs — and deserves.


53-39, second place, NL East (first wild card)

Weakness: Pitching depth

Best match: Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

The Mets started 45-24 on the strength of their starting pitching. With a 2.79 ERA that was nearly a quarter-run better than the second-best rotation, they cut the figure of a juggernaut. Since June 13, their starters’ 5.61 ERA is worse than every team in baseball aside from Washington. And if your starters are getting compared to those of the Nationals, something went haywire.

Gallen has looked more like his old self in recent starts, and if his home run rate stabilizes — typically one per nine, it has jumped to 1.6 — alongside a perilously low strand rate normalizing, he can shake off the 5.15 ERA and be a real difference-maker for the Mets before hitting free agency after the season. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns doesn’t, as a general rule, spend big on pitching. In this case, though, an investment in Gallen makes too much sense for the Mets not to consider.


53-40, second place, NL Central (second wild card)

Weakness: Power

Best match: Ryan O’Hearn, Baltimore Orioles

With 88 home runs, the Brewers rank just 21st in MLB. And while that hasn’t impeded their production — they’re eighth in runs scored — another big bat could do their offense wonders. Nobody will mistake the soon-to-be-32-year-old O’Hearn for Aaron Judge, but he punishes right-handed pitching, and in a lineup without any boppers, O’Hearn also could serve as the strong side of a first-base platoon and pick up outfield and DH at-bats.

Milwaukee’s options are fascinating. Jacob Misiorowski‘s arrival has been an unmitigated success and only added to the Brewers’ starting pitching depth. They could easily move a starting pitcher and tap into their deep prospect well for O’Hearn. The add-and-subtract maneuver is risky, sure, but the Brewers have steeled themselves to weather it. The Brewers, as currently constituted, are solid. Better second halves from Jackson Chourio and Joey Ortiz, continued solid pitching and the proper sort of deadline aggressiveness could make them even more.


51-43, second place, NL West (third wild card)

Weakness: Starting pitching

Best match: Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

The Giants made their big move already, getting the best player who will move this season — designated hitter Rafael Devers — to shore up their offense. Intradivision trades can be trying, but if Buster Posey has shown anything in his first season as president of baseball operations, it’s a willingness to stomach the sorts of deals that would scare off his peers.

Kelly represents a significant upgrade over the Giants’ backend rotation options, as Justin Verlander and Hayden Birdsong are sporting ERAs of 6.27 and 5.73, respectively, since June 1. Whether the Giants are real or simply a function of a bullpen whose core of Camilo Doval, Randy Rodriguez, Tyler Rogers, Erik Miller, Spencer Bivens and Ryan Walker has given up only 11 home runs in 232⅔ innings remains to be seen. For an organization seeking its first postseason series win in nearly a decade, though, there is never a time as urgent as now.


49-43, third place, NL West (one game behind third wild card)

Weakness: Left field

Best match: Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox

No player and team have been linked as strongly as Duran and the Padres — and that’s without any knowledge of how the Red Sox intend to handle the deadline. Roman Anthony’s emergence has put Boston in a position to float Duran and Wilyer Abreu in trade discussions, and whether it’s now or over the winter, Boston wants to use its surplus of bats to fill voids elsewhere.

Left field in San Diego is among the biggest voids in the game. The Padres have tried eight players in left this season, and collectively they’re barely have an OPS of over .600. A Duran-Jackson MerrillFernando Tatis Jr. outfield would be a factory of dynamism that would be under team control through the end of the 2028 season. The Padres might need to get creative — beyond shortstop Leo De Vries (who’s believed to be off-limits) and catcher Ethan Salas, their farm system is middling — but nobody does creativity like GM A.J. Preller. And whether that means facilitating a deal through a third team or including one of their high-leverage relievers like closer Robert Suárez, San Diego is willing to go places most other organizations would never consider.


49-44, third place, NL Central (1½ games behind third wild card)

Weakness: Starting pitching

Best match: Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays

Certainly there’s a world in which John Mozeliak’s final deadline as St. Louis’ president of baseball operations is uneventful. The NL is stacked, and for all of the Cardinals’ improvement this season, they remain a flawed team. And yet there’s also a world in which Mozeliak can make this year’s team better and simultaneously set up his successor, Chaim Bloom, with a rotation option for the future.

The Rays don’t have a strong desire to move the 24-year-old Bradley, but with Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz and Joe Boyle all pitching well, and ace Shane McClanahan out on a rehabilitation assignment, Tampa Bay is at least entertaining the idea. Bradley’s stuff has exceeded his performance over his three major league seasons, but the controllable-starting-pitching market is practically empty, and St. Louis’ farm system is replete with high-end catchers, which would fill a vacuum for the Rays


47-46, fourth place, NL Central (3½ games behind third wild card)

Weakness: Bullpen and big bat

Best match: Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians

With a sneaky-deep farm system, the Reds could put together the sort of package to convince Cleveland to move Kwan, a two-time All-Star who in his four seasons ranks fifth in wins above replacement among all outfielders, behind only Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker and Julio Rodríguez. Kwan’s bat-to-ball and defensive skills in left field are elite, and with free agency not beckoning until after the 2027 season, sandwiching him between TJ Friedl and Elly De La Cruz strengthens a Reds lineup that could use an offensive infusion.

If the cost to acquire Kwan is too high, other good options exist, chief among them Marcell Ozuna, the Atlanta slugger whose swing was built for Great American Ball Park. With a rotation that includes All-Star Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Chase Burns, the Reds are a terrifying postseason opponent. Another bat would buttress the rotation and give Cincinnati an opportunity to turn potential into its first postseason series win in three decades.

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Godfather offers for Skenes, Acuña and Buxton: Trade proposals their teams might not reject

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Godfather offers for Skenes, Acuña and Buxton: Trade proposals their teams might not reject

Comparing MLB to the NBA is kind of like comparing apples to pomegranates, but the NBA, with its rapid-fire spate of blockbuster trades and signings, certainly has us wishing major league front office executives operated as daringly as their basketball counterparts.

The conservative nature in baseball is understandable. Nobody wants to end up as the general manager who trades Pete Crow-Armstrong for two months of Javier Baez and a failed playoff bid.

But every now and then we get a shocking deal. At the MLB trade deadline in 2022, the San Diego Padres gave up five highly rated young players to acquire Juan Soto, who still had two-plus seasons left of team control. Three of those young players — James Wood, MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams — now form the core of the Washington Nationals. And just a few weeks ago came the surprise mid-June trade of Rafael Devers, in only the second year of a 10-year contract, from the Boston Red Sox to the San Francisco Giants.

Might another similarly entertaining megadeal occur this month ahead of the deadline on July 31? Probably not, but we can dream.

Let’s consider three players who almost certainly won’t be made available for trade this year, but whose names have been kicked around in (quite unlikely) fan trade scenarios. If the right offer did arrive, the player’s organization would have to at least consider making the deal … right?

Call them Godfather offers. Let’s see what it would take to land three star players in 2025.

(All prospect rankings are from Kiley McDaniel’s top 50 update from late May.)


Why they’ll probably keep him: He’s arguably the best starter in baseball, perhaps on his way to a Cy Young Award in his first full season. He’s one of the biggest names in the sport — despite playing for the lowly Pirates — and a player you can build not only a pitching staff around but a championship contender. He’s under team control through 2029 and doesn’t even become arbitration-eligible until 2027, so the Pirates are still years away from paying him a fair salary.

But Skenes is a pitcher — and pitchers get hurt. So, if the Pirates are open to listening …

Offer No. 1: New York Mets offer SS/CF Jett Williams (No. 20), RHP Jonah Tong (No. 50), RHP Nolan McLean, IF Ronny Mauricio, OF Carson Benge

Offer No. 2: Los Angeles Dodgers offer C/OF Dalton Rushing (No. 14), OF Josue De Paula (No. 17), IF Alex Freeland, RHP Emmet Sheehan, LHP Jackson Ferris

Offer No. 3: Detroit Tigers offer OF Max Clark (No. 8), SS Kevin McGonigle (No. 11), RHP Jackson Jobe, IF Colt Keith, RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long

The one that could get it done: Tigers

A playoff rotation with Skenes and Tarik Skubal? Thank you very much. Reminder: The Tigers haven’t won the World Series since 1984.

It will take one of the best farm systems in the sport to acquire Skenes, and Detroit is incredibly well positioned to make this kind of deal, with depth at both the major league and minor league levels, not to mention a payroll with only one expensive long-term commitment in Javier Baez. Two of the top prospects in the sport in Clark and McGonigle headline this trade, with both currently excelling in High-A ball. Clark, a speedy center fielder, has a .429 OBP with more walks than strikeouts, and McGonigle is hitting .373 with a high contact rate and OPS over 1.100. Former top pitching prospect Jobe underwent Tommy John surgery in June and would be a nice inclusion for the Pirates to gamble on.

For the Tigers, the deal wouldn’t even decimate their farm system. They would still have shortstop Bryce Rainer (No. 22), first baseman/catcher Josue Briceno and a slew of solid pitching prospects. For the Pirates, Clark and McGonigle project as solutions at two problem areas in center field (where Oneil Cruz has struggled defensively) and shortstop (stopgap Isiah Kiner-Falefa is the current starter) plus they get a solid major leaguer in Keith and a back-end rotation-type in Gipson-Long.

As much as the Mets could use a staff ace, their system is deeper in pitching prospects, which doesn’t best align with the Pirates’ needs. As the Dodgers’ pitching injuries have piled up again, Skenes could be a match. Rushing is blocked at catcher by Will Smith, and he and De Paula probably have more power upside (De Paula has drawn Yordan Alvarez comparisons) than Clark and McGonigle. The Pirates might, understandably, ask for Roki Sasaki, and that could be the deal-breaker for the Dodgers.


Why they’ll probably keep him: Acuña has been one of the best hitters in the majors since returning in late May from his second ACL surgery and has been the best hitter on a Braves team that is near the bottom of the National League in runs scored. He is signed through 2028 on an incredibly team-friendly deal that pays him just $17 million per season — making it one of the best contracts in the sport for a team. At just 27 years old, he remains in the middle of his prime and is one of the sport’s most dynamic talents.

But Acuña’s knees are a long-term concern, Atlanta lacks depth in both the lineup and pitching staff, and this looks like a lost season.

So, if the Braves are open to listening …

Offer No. 1: Milwaukee Brewers offer SS Jesus Made (No. 5), SS Luis Pena, OF Sal Frelick, RHP Logan Henderson, RHP Abner Uribe

Offer No. 2: Seattle Mariners offer SS Colt Emerson (No. 10), RHP Bryce Miller, C Harry Ford, OF Lazaro Montes, LHP Brandyn Garcia

Offer No. 3: Tampa Bay Rays offer SS Carson Willliams (No. 27), RHP Shane Baz, OF Theo Gillen, RHP Yoniel Curet, RHP Brody Hopkins

The one that could get it done: Mariners

The Mariners have never played in a World Series. Their right-field production is among the worst in the majors. Oh, and they have a loaded farm system with nine prospects on MLB.com’s recently updated top 100, more than any other team. On that list, Emerson came in at No. 18, Montes at No. 29 and Ford at No. 56. Miller’s value is temporarily down since he’s out because of right elbow inflammation, but he had a 2.94 ERA for the Mariners in 2024 and could give the Braves a front-line starter if healthy.

Ford might not be a perfect fit for Atlanta with Drake Baldwin (plus Sean Murphy) at catcher, but Cal Raleigh blocks Ford in Seattle. The Braves could trade Murphy in the offseason, and Ford does have the athleticism to play some outfield — although he has played exclusively behind the plate at Triple-A, where he’s hitting over .300 with an OBP over .400. Emerson is a favorite of scouts with his hard contact and ability to play shortstop, although he’s still learning to lift the ball more, while Montes recently earned a promotion to Double-A after slugging .572 in High-A at age 20.

For the Mariners, Acuña would fit nicely at the top of the order or hitting second in front of Raleigh, allowing them to slide Julio Rodriguez lower in the lineup — and maybe Acuña’s presence would also help take some pressure off Rodriguez. Most importantly: Acuña’s salary is a realistic fit even for the Mariners, who don’t like to spend. And despite giving up three excellent prospects and a young starting pitcher, their farm system would remain strong. Plus, they have the No. 3 pick in this year’s draft.

Milwaukee’s offer is enticing with two premium hitting prospects in Made and Pena, but it’s a riskier package as the 18-year-olds are a long way from the majors and neither is a lock to stick at shortstop, a big offensive hole in the Braves’ lineup. Williams would be the key to the Tampa Bay trade, but his sky-high strikeout rate at Triple-A has caused him to drop in the rankings and limits his offensive upside.


Why they’ll probably keep him: The Twins are under .500, but that doesn’t mean they’re out of the playoff race. Buxton has been their best player and best hitter as he’s on pace for a career high in WAR. Though he hasn’t reached the heights of Acuña at Acuña’s best, Buxton’s contract is also team friendly, as he’s signed through 2028 and making $15.1 million per season. He’s 31 years old but is still one of the better defensive center fielders in the game.

But Buxton, while healthy in 2025, is frequently sidelined by injuries. So, if the Twins are open to listening …

Offer No. 1: Philadelphia Phillies offer RHP Andrew Painter (No. 23) and OF Justin Crawford

Offer No. 2: Cincinnati Reds offer RHP Rhett Lowder (No. 48), RHP Chase Petty (No. 49) and 3B Sal Stewart

Offer No. 3: Kansas City Royals offer LHP Cole Ragans and LHP David Shields

The one that could get it done: Phillies

The Phillies, Reds and Royals all could use an outfielder to add some punch to their lineups, although in Cincinnati’s case, its biggest hole is at third base. Philadelphia has a lot riding on 2025 given the age of its lineup, and executive Dave Dombrowski knows how to go all-in. In this case, that would mean parting with one of the top pitching prospects in the game in Painter, plus a promising young outfielder hitting well at Triple-A.

Trading Painter would be painful, but the Phillies remain deep in the rotation with Zack Wheeler (signed through 2027), Cristopher Sanchez (signed through 2030), Aaron Nola (signed through 2030) and Jesus Luzardo (under team control through 2026). Ranger Suarez, who’s having an excellent season, is heading into free agency, so he’s the one arm they might lose. But center field has been a soft spot in recent seasons, with the Phillies in the bottom third in the majors in OPS this year, and the team’s overall power output has been below average, even with Kyle Schwarber. Adding Buxton adds more pop to the middle of the order.

Painter gives the Twins a potential ace, and they have top prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez ready to take over in center field anyway. The 21-year-old Crawford is a divisive prospect (he’s No. 49 in the MLB.com rankings) because while he’s hitting for a high average at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, he hits the ball on the ground too much and has only two home runs. Still, there’s a chance he produces a good OBP and plus defense with his speed.

The Royals’ challenge trade with Ragans is intriguing but risky for Minnesota, given he’s on the injured list right now because of a rotator cuff strain. Plus, intradivision trades are hard to pull off. The Twins would want Chase Burns from the Reds, but that’s probably a nonstarter for Cincinnati.

Will we get some surprise spicy deals this trade deadline? Will it just be the usual list of free-agents-to-be and relief pitchers? In a season that remains so wide open, the time might be right for some outside-the-box movement.

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