Schedule, playoff format, ‘the Jack Eichel issue’: What players are looking for in CBA talks
-
Emily Kaplan, ESPN
As the NHL and NHLPA enter the penultimate season under its collective bargaining agreement, there’s a new tone emanating from both sides: optimism.
For a league that has experienced three lockouts over the last 30 years, it’s a welcome change. The NHL and NHLPA last negotiated a CBA in 2020 — amid the COVID shutdown, when discussions were bundled with return-to-play protocols. Financials were bleak, especially for a sport quite dependent on gate revenue. In an unprecedented climate, both sides collaborated for solutions. Four years later, they all rebounded in a big way. Revenue hit a record $6.2 billion last season, as the league also set new marks in attendance and saw a spike in sponsorship revenue, thanks to evolving attitudes on sports betting, helmet decals and showcasing individual players’ personalities.
In Sportico’s recent valuations, the average NHL franchise is worth $1.79 billion — a 37 percent increase in just one year.
Last month at a Board of Governors’ meeting, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman said he’d like to start (and hopefully end) CBA negotiations early, saying “in terms of the relationship, we think we’re in a good place.”
The NHLPA’s new executive director, Marty Walsh, is equally positive these days. “Myself and Gary Bettman have had very open conversations about how this potentially could be laid out,” Walsh told ESPN in a recent interview. “Going in with an open mind, with open dialogue is how I’ve always approached collective bargaining.”
Both sides are motivated to continue momentum. And sources on both sides suggested that if a deal was reached as soon as this spring, there would likely be few changes to the overall structure, just tweaks. But from a player’s perspective, there’s only so often you can ask your boss to re-open your contract and hope to change the terms. So what exactly would they like to achieve?
Walsh agreed to an interview, but declined to speak on specific issues, saying it was premature. Walsh is currently on his annual fall tour – a series of individual union meetings with every team — to canvass players opinions. “Once we assess where we are at and what players feel, we will take next steps after that,” Walsh said.
In the interim, ESPN spoke with 21 veteran players around the NHL to get an early pulse on what issues are important to them. The players were granted anonymity to speak openly. Here is a primer of what topics are on the table and what might be feasible in a new CBA:
The biggest concern for players: Grow the pie
The one item that came up again and again with players was money. “It’s not overly complicated at this point, we need to grow revenue,” one player said. “It’s what all the other sports are doing. We don’t need to be squabbling over points; we need to make the pie larger so we can have a larger slice. This deal has been great for the owners.”
Players cited several examples on how the league’s value has ballooned. Jeff Vinik bought the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2010 for a reported $93 million. Vinik recently sold a majority stake of the team, which is now valued at $1.8 billion, per Sportico. Meanwhile players salaries have largely remained stagnant. Florida Panther star Matthew Tkachuk’s cap hit ($9.5 million) is roughly the same as what his father, Keith Tkachuk, was making in the 1999-2000 season for the St. Louis Blues ($10 million).
The NHL and NHLPA currently have a 50-50 split on hockey-related revenue. The salary cap, which is calculated based on HRR, remained largely stagnant through and directly following the pandemic to account for losses — though the league has hinted at bigger jumps the next several seasons. Players are hoping those jumps are sizable.
“Coming out of COVID was tough, and it felt like we took a lot of compromise to get to where we should be,” one player said. “Now it seems like the league has done well with HRR and hopefully that allows us to see the benefits.”
It’s unclear what economic proposals either side will bring to the table. Players uniformly felt they took a cut when the split went from 57-43 to 50-50 in the 2012 CBA. They have no appetite to decrease further, even if the league tries to argue that in other sports like the NBA or NFL, the players’ share is less than 50%. Several players wondered if the NHL could institute a luxury tax.
“We have some owners who would definitely be willing to spend over the cap,” one player said. “We should reward that. And then that money gets spread across all the owners, and for some of the smaller-market teams it puts money in their pocket.”
Players said they would like to receive a cut of future expansion fees as the league flirts with the idea of 34 teams. “We should fight for that, no doubt,” one player said. But, according to sources, that could be a sticking point for the league.
As usual, many players brought up escrow — in which the league withholds a portion of their salary until revenue is accounted at the end of the season – as something they were passionate about eliminating.
“I think a lot of guys get confused or caught up with escrow, but it’s just a mechanism for getting paid,” one player said. “We need to be focusing on the bigger picture. We want to get rid of escrow. I’m sure the owners want to get rid of guaranteed contracts. We all should be focused on how we can bring more attention and dollars to the sport.”
What could it be? The NHL should get another infusion of cash on the new Canadian TV deal, which will kick in for 2025-26. Players were optimistic about the presence of Amazon, which is dabbling with streaming games in Canada and produced an all-access show, Face Off, which got buy-in from players and the league.
Said one player: “I don’t think there’s a silver bullet, or one thing that will help revenue. But all of our energy should be focused on finding new ways to grow our sport.”
The possible tweaks
Throughout the course of the season, when matters are raised by players or at a general manager’s meeting, the answer can be a common refrain: That’s a CBA issue. So what topics since 2020 do the players feel passionately about revisiting?
-
The schedule: One of the most intriguing topics expected to be discussed is the schedule. Anything could be on the table, from eliminating the three-day Christmas break to reconsidering the way out-of-division games are scheduled. Restructuring the preseason became a hot topic in September after a rash of high-profile injuries including to Drew Doughty, David Reinbacher and Patrik Laine. One idea that has been floated is trimming the preseason in favor of adding two games to the regular season (putting the total at 84). Players surveyed by ESPN had mixed opinions. “There are teams scheduling eight preseason games and that’s too many,” one player said. “Some of them become s—shows, especially when you see rosters some teams put out. Some teams are playing three [games] in three days.” Veteran players acknowledged that while they generally needed only two or three to feel game-ready, the preseason contests are valuable for prospects to get evaluated. “Our preseason is just too long,” one player said. “We’re almost done with camp. Media day in the NBA was two days ago and they finished earlier than us. It’s insane. I’d take 84 games if we could start earlier.” Others were wary of the expense of a longer regular season. “Hockey is a tough contact sport. Playing those two extra games could be the difference between having a guy in the playoffs or losing him,” one player said. “Also the wear and tear on your body. You may not notice it after two games, but it all adds up. I don’t think it’s a good idea.”
-
Playoff format: A handful of players want to change the playoff format to a typical 1-8 seeding by conference. “A lot of guys would like to see that change, myself included,” one player said. But according to sources, there have never been substantive discussions about that at Board of Governor meetings. The league believes the format is strong and the Stanley Cup playoffs are the best postseason in sports. It would have to be a major sticking point for players to get addressed.
-
“The Jack Eichel issue”: In 2021, Eichel was sidelined with a herniated disc in his neck. He wanted to get an artificial disc replacement, a procedure never performed on another NHL player before. The Sabres preferred a more proven alternative. Under the CBA, teams get final say over a player’s medical care. It caused a massive rift, resulting in Eichel’s trade to Vegas, and an issue many assumed would be brought up in the next CBA. Players uniformly said they should get final say over their medical rights. And while there are some that are super passionate, many view Eichel’s situation as a rare occurrence — and not necessarily an easy tweak. One player noted they’ve actually made big strides in this department. “When I first started [11 years ago], it was super taboo to get a second opinion, like you were disobeying your team,” the player said. “Now they’ve made it so much easier, much more common. We’re in a decent place.” At its core, this CBA clause about final say on medical decisions is really about guaranteed contracts, which players do not want to relent on. Several players advocated for full benefits post-retirement. In the CBA, eligible retired players can enroll in the NHL Health and Benefits Fund and, in certain circumstances, receive a subsidy towards the cost. There have been enhancements on this over the years. For example, the offering used to be a one size fits all policy. Now, it’s more scalable. Some players want further assurances, even if it would be a massive cost. “Healthcare is a huge thing,” one player said. “We have one of the best pensions in major sports but we need an answer for health care and get full benefits.”
-
International events: In the past, participation in international events was atop players’ wish list. However with the upcoming 4 Nations Faceoff tournament, commitment (and progress) on scheduling a regular World Cup, and commitment to play in the 2026 Olympics in Milan, players feel they are in a good place. “Feels like the league finally met us on international play. It’s important to players and I think the league also understands its importance for the growth of the sport, even if owners are taking on the risk of a guy getting injured, and dealing with the IOC and IIHF on insurance,” one player said. But for the players it’s still important to get it in writing.
-
Rules and equipment: General managers have given the league feedback at their recent meetings that they would like changes to the long-term injury reserve rules, which has allowed some teams to activate players just as the playoffs begin. While some players had mixed opinions here, none felt super passionately that it needed to be addressed — though they knew the league may bring it up. The NHL also will likely discuss equipment mandates, such as neck guards.
-
Next-gen ideas: Some players said their agents have bugged them about ideas for the next generation, such as changing the draft age to 19, shortening the draft, or finding an out to the Canadian Hockey League and NHL agreement that stipulates teenagers must be returned to their junior clubs if they aren’t on the NHL roster. The NHL and CHL agreement is separate from the CBA. And with a massive sea change coming – the NCAA is considering changing eligibility rules regarding CHL players – it’s tough to predict what is feasible here. But many of the draft-related ideas have not received traction, according to sources.
What’s next in the process?
Walsh and his top lieutenant Ron Hainsey — a defenseman who retired from the league in 2021 — are continuing their fall tour, which is expected to stretch into December. Discussions on the tour will help shape points of emphasis for negotiations with the league. Walsh said he is in no rush.
“It’s really dictated by the players,” Walsh said. “It depends on where we are with the players, what the players want to do. I mean, this is their association. We’ll talk to the entire team and then we follow up with player reps and follow up individual players who are interested in this stuff. Players are everyday people. They’re busy with life and family and everything else. So some players want to get very engaged and some just want to support their teammates.”
If the sides come to a resolution by June, there is nothing that prevents a new CBA from going into effect before the prior one is completed. So if both parties agree, the new CBA could theoretically begin as soon as next season.
Walsh was hired in February, 2023 after an exhaustive search. He was the longtime mayor of Boston before serving as the U.S. Secretary of Labor. Players on the search committee said they liked Walsh’s political background — his ability to communicate, form relationships and garner support. He’s remained accessible, giving all 750-plus members of the union his cellphone number.
“I think guys are feeling really confident being led by Marty,” one player rep said. “He has good energy, a good feel for the CBA, the league and also how to develop relationships with Gary [Bettman] and work with the league. We know issues are going to come up, but we feel like he’ll get them resolved.”
One question several players wondered: Who will exercise their voice and help in the fight? The NHL’s new marketing campaign is all about Gen Z as Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews and Connor Bedard become the new faces of the league. In the past, Sidney Crosby has been very opinionated on league issues behind the scenes, then goes through proper channels.
“Other sports that are seeing a lot of success are driven by their stars, and that’s where we want to be,” one player said. “Patrick Mahomes, LeBron James, they’re at the forefront of league issues. That matters.”
Walsh said it was too early to identify which players might be the spokespeople for the union. “Depends on how negotiations are going,” he said.
-
Greg Wyshynski
The Nashville Predators disagreed that a “weird” Minnesota Wild overtime goal scored with the net displaced Tuesday night should have counted.
Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov sent a pass across the crease to teammate Marcus Johansson just as Predators goalie Justus Annunen pushed the net off its moorings. Johansson’s shot hit the side of the net as the cage continued to slide out of place. He collected the puck and then backhanded it over the goal line and off the end boards with the net dislodged.
The referee signaled a goal at 3:38 of overtime, and it was upheld after an NHL video review. Minnesota won, 3-2, overcoming an emotional letdown when Nashville’s Steven Stamkos tied the score with just 0.3 seconds left in regulation.
“The explanation was that, in [the referee’s] opinion, it was a goal. I disagree with his opinion, but that’s the way it is,” Nashville coach Andrew Brunette said.
Stamkos wasn’t pleased with the goal call after the game.
“Obviously, a weird play. I can see the confusion, but the confusing part for us was why it was so emphatically called [a goal]. I get it. Listen, the net came off. If the puck goes in right away, no problem if the net is off. But he missed the net, and the puck actually bounced back to him because the net was sideways,” he said.
The NHL’s Situation Room upheld the goal because it felt Annunen caused the net to be displaced prior to an “imminent scoring opportunity” by Johansson and cited Rule 63.7 as justification. The rule reads:
“In the event that the goal post is displaced, either deliberately or accidentally, by a defending player, prior to the puck crossing the goal line between the normal position of the goalposts, the Referee may award a goal. In order to award a goal in this situation, the goal post must have been displaced by the actions of a defending player, the attacking player must have an imminent scoring opportunity prior to the goal post being displaced, and it must be determined that the puck would have entered the net between the normal position of the goal posts.”
Stamkos didn’t believe that Johansson’s goal-scoring shot was only made possible by the net having come off its moorings.
“I understand the net came off. I don’t think there was any intent from our goaltender to knock it off — it came off twice today. From our vantage point, we thought the puck came back to him on the second attempt because the net was off. If not, the puck goes behind the net, and we live to fight another day. So, that’s where we didn’t agree with the call,” he said.
Brunette doesn’t believe his goalie intentionally pushed the net off its moorings.
“I don’t think just by the physics of pushing that’s what he was trying to do. I thought they missed the net. If the net didn’t dislodge, you would have ended up hitting the net,” he said.
“Unfortunately, they didn’t see it the same way. And you move on.”
This was the second win in a row for the Wild, moving them to 5-6-3 on the season. Nashville dropped to 5-6-4, losing its second straight overtime game.
“We deserved a lot better, for sure. One of our best games of the season, for sure,” Stamkos said.
-
David Hale
The College Football Playoff committee has released its first top 25 ranking of the season, which is the sport’s version of Walmart opening its doors at midnight on Black Friday. Things are about to get ugly, and someone’s going to end up bloodied while fighting Oklahoma for a spot in the top 12. In other words, it’s the best time of year.
This year, the committee has said it is considering a new “record strength” metric, designed to provide some math-based guidance in the process and to soon replace “game control” as the country’s most hated made-up statistic.
Ten weeks into a season filled with a lot of chaos and few seemingly great teams, however, the committee needs all the help it can get. For example, just eight teams in the country have already beaten more than one of the committee’s current top 25 — and one of those eight teams is NC State. Utah, Iowa, Oregon, Pitt, Washington, Missouri and Tennessee — all ranked this week — are a combined 0-12 against other teams in the committee’s top 25. The ACC doesn’t have a team ranked higher than 14th, and the Group of 5 doesn’t have a team ranked at all, making these rankings less about the coveted top 12 than a need to be in the top 10.
In other words, there’s a lot still in flux as we dive deeper into the final month of the season. But that means our anger toward the committee is just simmering for now, waiting for the rage to boil over in the weeks to come.
Still, a few schools have a pretty good case for outrage already.
In all the hubbub over last year’s final playoff rankings that left a trio of SEC teams out, what went overlooked was that BYU might have had more to be angry about than Alabama, Ole Miss or South Carolina. Two of those teams, at least, had taken a bad loss. Each of those teams had three losses. BYU, on the other hand, checked in on the committee’s final ranking behind each of them despite a 10-2 record and two close losses to solid teams.
So, certainly the committee would feel some compassion for the Cougars this year and consider the Cougars with a bit more optimism, right?
Ah, no.
Let’s take a look at some blind résumés.
Team A: No. 3 strength of record, No. 33 strength of schedule, 4-0 vs. SP+ top-40 opponents, best win vs. No. 11 in the committee’s poll.
Team B: No. 4 strength of record, No. 45 strength of schedule, 3-0 vs. SP+ top-40 opponents, best win vs. No. 13 in the committee’s poll.
Sure, Team A has a slight edge, but the résumés look pretty similar.
Well, Team A is the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. Surely, if another team’s résumé looks more or less the same, that team would be staring down a bye in the first round of the playoff, right?
Nope. Team B is BYU, and the Cougars sit behind three SEC teams with a loss, all three of which are ranked lower in ESPN’s strength of record metric.
Given that BYU has a massive showdown with Texas Tech upcoming, perhaps the committee just punted on any tough decisions on the Cougars for this week. After all, given how much love the committee has shown the Big Ten in these rankings, punting would be a fitting play.
We get it. As a conference, the ACC might, in fact, just be an episode of “Punk’d” that Ashton Kutcher started in 2008, then got distracted and forgot to let everyone know it was a prank. The conference’s train wreck in Week 10 certainly showed up in these rankings — more on that in a moment — but it’s almost as if the committee just threw Louisville into the mix, deciding the Cardinals were guilty by association.
Let’s take another look at some blind résumés, shall we?
Team A: No. 10 strength of record, No. 58 strength of schedule, one win vs. SP+ top 40, best win vs. committee’s No. 13 team, lone loss vs. an unranked team.
Team B: No. 13 strength of record, No. 56 strength of schedule, three wins vs. SP+ top 40, best win vs. committee’s No. 18 team, lone loss to committee’s No. 14 team.
This is basically a coin flip, though given the additional wins vs. high-level opponents and a better loss, it would be hard to argue against Team B, right? Add to that, Team B’s lone loss came in double overtime in a game when it outgained its opponent by 150 yards. Surely, you would be on Team B’s side now, right?
Well, not surprisingly, Team B is Louisville. Team A is Texas Tech, ranked seven spots higher at No. 8.
There seems to be a desire to write Miami off because of two losses in the past three games and given the strife the team seems to be enduring on offense, perhaps that’s wise.
But two things are supposed to be true of the committee’s evaluation process. One, the committee is not supposed to care when wins and losses happen. Losing in September isn’t better than losing in November. A loss is a loss. Second, the committee is not supposed to make assumptions about the future. Sure, Miami’s offense is a mess at the moment, but assuming that will result in future losses isn’t part of the deal.
And yet, putting Miami at No. 18 — eight full spots behind another two-loss team the Canes beat head-to-head — can only be explained by the vibes. Notre Dame’s season is rolling right along now. Miami has hit some stumbling blocks. Never mind the Canes are two late Carson Beck interceptions away from still being undefeated. Never mind that Miami has four wins vs. FPI top-35 teams, twice as many as any other two-loss team except Oklahoma. Never mind that Miami has that head-to-head against the No. 10 team in the committee’s rankings or that it walloped a Florida team that took No. 5 Georgia to the wire and actually beat No. 11 Texas. Never mind that Miami beat a then-ranked USF by 37.
Instead, the committee has assigned Miami to the scrap heap now — which is a shame because Miami would probably have done this to itself anyway, and it’s so much funnier when it happens in the last game of the season.
4. The Group of 5
A year ago, Boise State found its way into a first-round bye ahead of the champion of a Power 4 league, which was probably pretty embarrassing for that Power 4 league except that the ACC embarrasses itself often enough to be pretty well immune to shame.
The rules have changed this year. The top four conference champs aren’t guaranteed a first-round bye now. But that doesn’t seem to have stopped the committee from stacking the deck anyway, just to be safe.
Not one team outside the Power 4 found its way into these initial rankings, though the committee notes that Memphis currently is in the lead for the long Group of 5 playoff bid.
So, surely the Group of 5 should be pretty upset, right?
Yes, but not about being snubbed from the top-25 party. None of the leaders in the Group of 5 have a great case — certainly none like Boise State had a year ago. But Memphis? Really? The same team that lost by a touchdown to a UAB team had just fired its coach?
In the committee’s new guidance to consider record strength, there is an assumption that really bad losses are weighted heavily, but that certainly hasn’t been the case this time around.
North Texas has one loss to SP+ No. 27.
James Madison has one loss to SP+ No. 16 (and the No. 15 team in the committee’s rankings).
San Diego State has one loss to SP+ No. 73 has one loss to SP+ No. 119.
Memphis has one loss to SP+ No. 119.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the Tigers weren’t punished at all for a terrible loss.
5. The SEC
The latter half of the committee’s top 25 is usually the equivalent of the phone lines for a Finebaum episode — just a place where a lot of mediocre SEC folks hang out, patiently waiting for their turn. But this time, the committee has stuffed the bottom of the rankings with Big Ten teams — No. 19 USC, No. 20 Iowa, No. 21 Michigan and No. 23 Washington — and that might actually matter in the long run.
One of the committee’s favored metrics is wins over ranked opponents. We’re dubious about how many Big Ten teams deserve a little number next to their name. The league still has four teams that have yet to win a conference game, and the bottom third is a complete dumpster fire. It’s easy to rack up some wins when half your conference schedule has already been embarrassed by UCLA’s interim coaching staff.
But the SEC — that’s where the real depth is. Nearly half the SEC’s conference games this season have been one-possession affairs. Mississippi State, a team that had gone nearly two years without an SEC win, already knocked off last year’s Big 12 champ. LSU, a team that fired its coach, has a win over last year’s ACC champ. Florida beat Texas. Putting a bunch of undeserving teams at the bottom of the rankings only serves to prop up the résumés of teams such as Oregon, which hasn’t beaten anyone of consequence. And frankly, the committee is supposed to do that for the SEC, not the Big Ten.
Also angry: Virginia Cavaliers (8-1, No. 14, behind four two-loss teams), USF Bulls (6-2, unranked), Arizona State Sun Devils (6-3, unranked), Cincinnati Bearcats (7-2, unranked), Brian Kelly (just angry for other reasons).
The ACC is already playing from behind, and it’s only the first ranking of the season. With no teams ranked in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s initial top 12 on Tuesday night, the lone ACC team in the bracket if it were released today would be No. 14 Virginia. The Cavaliers would earn a spot as the fourth-highest ranked conference champion.
As for No. 17 Georgia Tech and No. 18 Miami? Not even a head-to-head win against the No. 10-ranked Fighting Irish was enough to keep the Canes within playoff range after their loss at SMU.
It’s far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build — or bust — their résumés. Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’d receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the selection committee’s first ranking on Tuesday night.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels are currently in a safe spot, but they’re not a lock if they don’t run the table. With remaining games against The Citadel, Florida and at rival Mississippi State, there’s no possibility of a “good loss” remaining, and historically, losing in November has been far more damaging to playoff hopes than losing early. Ole Miss shouldn’t lose; it’s favored in each of its remaining games by at least 72% and has the seventh-best chance in the country (55.4%) to win out. If an upset occurred, though, the Rebels would join the two-loss club and might not win a debate with other two-loss teams that had more statement wins — and didn’t lose to an unranked opponent. The Rebels’ remaining schedule strength is No. 56 in the country. With a second loss, Ole Miss would be banking on wins against Oklahoma, Tulane and LSU to impress the committee enough for an at-large bid.
First team out: Texas. The Longhorns got a significant boost this week in part because three teams above them fell out — Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami — but also because they earned another CFP top 25 win against the Commodores. The head-to-head win against Oklahoma could also help them in the committee meeting room. If Texas is ranked No. 11 or No. 12 by the committee, though, and the ACC and Group of 5 champions are outside of the committee’s top 12, then the Longhorns would be elbowed out during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions, which are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Still in the mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt. The Sooners earned a huge résumé boost with their win at No. 25 Tennessee and have a CFP top 25 win against Michigan. For two-loss Vandy, a close road loss to Texas isn’t an eliminator. Missouri’s lone losses were to Alabama and Vanderbilt, but the Tigers don’t have anything yet to compensate for it. That could change on Saturday with a win against Texas A&M.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. The one-loss Ducks have a more challenging second half of the season, and the committee is about to learn how good this team truly is. So far, Oregon’s best win was Sept. 13 at Northwestern. The Ducks have been passing the eye test, but their opponents have a winning percentage of 47.2% — ranked No. 116 in the country. The committee will still respect the double-overtime win at Penn State but also recognize the Nittany Lions weren’t playing at an elite level even with James Franklin on the sideline. With road trips to Iowa and Washington — both respectable two-loss teams — and a Nov. 22 home game against USC, Oregon has a chance to further entrench itself in the top 12 or tumble out.
First team out: USC. The Trojans’ two losses were on the road to respectable teams (Illinois and Notre Dame) by a combined 12 points. Their best win was Oct. 11 against Michigan, but the Trojans could really boost their résumé this month and completely flip the script with Oregon if they can win in Eugene on Nov. 22. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (18%), just ahead of Michigan. The only game it’s not favored to win is Nov. 22 at Oregon. If the Trojans can pull off that upset for a 10-2 finish, though, the committee would definitely consider them for an at-large spot.
Still in the mix: Iowa, Michigan, Washington. All three of these teams were ranked by the committee on Tuesday night, but No. 20 Iowa has the shortest climb into the conversation and gets a chance for a marquee win when it hosts No. 9 Oregon on Saturday. Michigan still has a chance to run the table and impress the committee with a win against its No. 1 team, Ohio State, but the head-to-head loss to USC will be a problem in both the Big Ten standings and the CFP ranking. If USC loses again, though, and their records are no longer comparable, it can be overcome. Then there’s a head-to-head loss to Oklahoma. Still, Michigan has a 13.2% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: BYU, Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it’s a CFP lock. The problem is if the Red Raiders lose a second conference game, then they’re going to need some help to reach the Big 12 championship. So a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU on Saturday but lose to it in the Big 12 championship game, they would still have a chance at an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. They would be able to claim a win over the eventual Big 12 champs, which would be a much-needed boost to their résumé. It would depend in part on how the game unfolded. The Cougars are the Red Raiders’ only remaining opponent with a winning record, as they end the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).
First team out: Utah. The No. 13 Utes are in a tricky spot because their two losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — BYU and Texas Tech. Utah still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (22.2%) but will need some help to get there. Utah’s best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but it might have a hard time earning an at-large bid without being able to beat at least one of the best teams in its league. If there is some movement above the Utes, though, they could quickly earn a promotion given their place on the bubble after the first ranking.
Still in the mix: Cincinnati. They’re included here because they still have an 18% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics. The unranked Bearcats have only one league loss, which gives them some slim hope. Their other loss was in the season opener to Nebraska.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Virginia
Last team in: Virginia. Like Georgia Tech, Virginia has a road loss to NC State as its lone blemish, but it was an early four-point loss compared with the Yellow Jackets’ double-digit defeat. Virginia also has a head-to-head win against Louisville. That’s the Hoos’ best win of the season and their only one against a CFP top 25 opponent. Virginia would still be in, though, if it wins the ACC even if it’s ranked outside the committee’s top 12 — just like three-loss Clemson was last year.
First team out: Louisville. The Cardinals lost at home in overtime to Virginia on Oct. 4 but earned a statement win Oct. 17 at Miami. Louisville will probably have only one win this season against a CFP top 25 team, which will make earning an at-large bid difficult. Louisville’s best shot would be to run the table, have teams above it lose, and win the ACC. Louisville has a 10.6% chance of winning the ACC, fourth best behind Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, SMU. The odds of earning an at-large bid dropped significantly on Tuesday, but any team that has a chance to win its league will have a chance to lock up a playoff spot, and these teams are all still technically in contention to play for the ACC title. Virginia has the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (66.6%), followed by Georgia Tech (41.3%) and Louisville (33.8%), according to ESPN Analytics. Miami has only a 2.7% chance to reach the championship game — also behind Duke and SMU.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The playoff stars aligned for Notre Dame in Week 10, when Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami all lost, opening the door for the 6-2 Irish to move back into the top 10 after beating Boston College. The selection committee’s decision to render the head-to-head loss to Miami moot was critical for both teams. The group rewarded Notre Dame for its eye test and recent surge during a six-game winning streak. Notre Dame has the best chance of any team in the country to run the table (64.3%), but the Nov. 15 trip to Pitt will be difficult. The Panthers are playing well, have won five straight and have a bye week to prepare for the Irish. Notre Dame’s playoff position will remain tenuous until the clock runs out at Stanford and the Irish are 10-2.
Group of 5
Would be in: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn a playoff spot as the committee’s fifth-highest ranked conference champion. Memphis wasn’t ranked in the committee’s top 25, but the group continues to rank teams until a Group of 5 team is included and then publicizes which one it is without revealing the full ranking and which teams might have been ahead. The Oct. 25 win against South Florida was critical in the league race, but the loss to 3-5 UAB is an ink stain on the Tigers’ résumé that can be overcome with a conference title. Memphis has at least a 57% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: USF, North Texas, James Madison, San Diego State. The committee would consider USF’s head-to-head wins against Boise State and North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the first committee ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Alabama
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Texas Tech
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Oregon/No. 8 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
-
Sports2 years agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment1 year agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024