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The 2023 MLB playoffs are down to four teams after surprising division series saw three of the four top-seeded teams get knocked out.

Now that the Texas RangersHouston Astros and Arizona DiamondbacksPhiladelphia Phillies matchups are set, it’s time for some predictions! We asked our MLB experts to weigh in on who will move on to the World Series, which players will earn LCS MVP honors and the themes we’ll all be talking about in the next week. They’ll also explain why their initial MLB postseason predictions are still in play — or went very wrong.


American League Championship Series

Houston Astros (6 votes), Texas Rangers (4)

Tristan Cockcroft: Rangers in 6

MVP: Corey Seager

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: Seager strengthening his case as one of this generation’s most dominant forces in October.

Bradford Doolittle: Astros in 6

MVP: Yordan Alvarez

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: How this series sets the tone for big league baseball in Texas for years to come. Baseball is better for its best rivalries, and Astros-Rangers is already a good one with plenty of kindling in place for a roaring fire.

Alden Gonzalez: Rangers in 6

MVP: Marcus Semien

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: Max Scherzer‘s heroic return, and how his presence created the domino effect that helped the Rangers make up for a leaky bullpen.

Eric Karabell: Astros in 6

MVP: Yordan Alvarez

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: The disappointing New York Mets when Justin Verlander faces off twice against Scherzer.

Tim Kurkjian: Astros in 7

MVP: Yordan Alvarez

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: The Astros trying to become the first team since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees to repeat as World Series champions, and the devastation of Alvarez in the middle of the order.

Paul Hembekides: Astros in 7

MVP: Yordan Alvarez

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: We’ll be talking about Houston’s late-game heroics against a Texas bullpen that proved to be its undoing.

Kiley McDaniel: Astros in 7

MVP: Alex Bregman

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: The battle for Texas might not seem like a sexy or historic matchup, but these teams will be going head-to-head in this division for years, so this may kick it off.

Jeff Passan: Astros in 7

MVP: Yordan Alvarez

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: How the Rangers’ bullpen, which has significantly outperformed expectations, finally regresses to the mean. As relentless as Texas’ lineup is, the Astros’ October tradition of chewing up opposing pitchers continues on.

Jesse Rogers: Rangers in 6

MVP: Adolis Garcia

The one thing we’ll be talking about: It’s hard to repeat, and the Astros will finally run out of steam as the Rangers train just won’t be stopped now that it’s back on track. Garcia will step outside the national shadow of veterans like Seager and Semien and make an even bigger name for himself.

David Schoenfield: Rangers in 7

MVP: Nathan Eovaldi

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: The impressive depth of the Rangers’ lineup (although Eovaldi will win MVP honors with two superlative starts). And the much-maligned Texas bullpen might blow a game but will pitch just well enough to secure the series in seven games.


National League Championship Series

Philadelphia Phillies (9 votes), Arizona Diamondbacks (1)

Cockcroft: Phillies in 5

MVP: Bryce Harper

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: Like Seager, Harper strengthening his case as one of this generation’s most dominant forces in October.

Doolittle: Phillies in 5

MVP: Bryce Harper

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: All of the things that have gotten Arizona to this point — lights-out bullpen, timely power surges at the plate, star players doing star things — are things that the Phillies have in place as well. And Philly has the edge in experience and in general after coming so close to winning it all last season.

Gonzalez: Phillies in 5

MVP: Bryce Harper

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: Bryce Harper: The new Mr. October.

Karabell: Phillies in 5

MVP: Zack Wheeler

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: Harper, sure, but also the impressive group of young players the Phillies call the Day Care — Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh.

Kurkjian: Phillies in 7

MVP: Bryce Harper

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: The power and passion of the Phillies, as well as their remarkable home crowd. Bryce Harper will be leading the way.

Hembekides: Phillies in 6

MVP: Kyle Schwarber

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: The Phillies’ historic home run barrage for the second consecutive series.

McDaniel: Phillies in 6

MVP: Bryce Harper

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: Are the Phillies the ultimate playoff mojo team, is Dave Dombrowski the team-building playoff whisperer, or have they objectively cracked the code in terms of how to build a playoff winner?

Passan: Phillies in 6

MVP: Bryce Harper

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: The first World Series rematch in almost half a century. In 1977 and 1978, the Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers faced off, with the Yankees winning both Series and cementing Reggie Jackson as Mr. October. This will be a grudge match for the ages.

Rogers: Phillies in 6

MVP: Trea Turner

The one thing we’ll be talking about: It’s simple. Philly fans won’t be denied. They’re inevitable.

Schoenfield: Diamondbacks in 7

MVP: Corbin Carroll

The one thing we’ll all be talking about: Nobody is going to pick the Diamondbacks, which underestimates that OF COURSE Arizona has a chance to win even if Philly has all those vibes going right now. Advice to Diamondbacks players: Don’t say anything about Bryce Harper that could lead to the Phillies wearing T-shirts in a champagne celebration that mock you.


World Series predictions we’re right about — so far

Hembekides: I predicted a Phillies-Astros rematch, but I would not be surprised if Houston stumbles in the ALCS. Texas boasts the deepest lineup in the sport — that is a coin-flip series.

Karabell: I originally had the Phillies over the Rays. Phillies-Astros is going to be a cool World Series rematch — the first since 1978 (Yankees-Dodgers) — but the Phillies are much improved from last season, notably in the bullpen and defensively. Perhaps they will be more careful with Alvarez this time. Phillies dance to the title.

Doolittle: Phillies over Rays. I feel really good about half of this pick. Not just because the Phillies are still going, but because they’ve come together in the precise way I thought they might. The most reinforcing aspect of the Phillies’ run so far is the way manager Rob Thomson deployed his bullpen in the clincher against Atlanta, favoring matchups over pre-programmed roles and even doing so with Craig Kimbrel. As for the Rays, well, picking the playoffs is hard, except when you’re right.


World Series predictions gone wrong

Schoenfield: Orioles over Phillies. Well, I guess I won’t be going to that parade in Baltimore. I watched too much of the Rangers that final series against the Mariners, when the bats went cold, and underestimated their ability to flip the switch. I had the Phillies beating the Braves (and then the Dodgers), so why turn on them now? But hey, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are really good.

Cockcroft: Braves over Orioles. What can I say? This year’s Braves were certainly a better team than last year’s model, but so were this year’s Phillies. I should’ve taken more into account the rotational injuries the Braves absorbed late in the season, I suppose.

I don’t have a big issue with the five-day layoff for top seeds, but the remainder of the postseason should be seven-game series, period. For one, the play-in teams should have a tougher hurdle in Round 2, with their rotation potentially really being out of whack, and for another, isn’t the whole idea that we want to see these regular-season dynamos play more games? Don’t let them get bounced in three — though, to be honest, I’m not sure either of these Orioles or Braves teams would have won had it been a seven-game series.

McDaniel: Braves over Astros. I feel fine about the Astros prediction and it was a pretty common refrain before the NLDS that the Philly/Atlanta winner would win the NL. We knew the Braves’ rotation would be an issue and that the Phillies’ bullpen was improved and their rotation was good. But some combination of luck and game-planning caused all of those observations to the extreme, while the best offense in our lifetime looked that way for only a handful of innings.

Rogers: Braves over Astros. Home runs win playoff games, so great home run-hitting teams should be a lock for a couple of rounds of the postseason. But the Braves stopped hitting them while the Phillies went deep early and often. The mystery of the best home run-hitting team in MLB history getting knocked out in the first round it played in will last long into the winter.

Passan: Braves over Rays. Tampa Bay faltered. Atlanta got attaboyed. The baseball playoffs are the closest thing we have in professional sports to the NCAA basketball tournament. And even though the upsets ruined my bracket, the remaining matchups are intriguing enough that I’m just fine with it.

Gonzalez: I picked the Braves over the Blue Jays, so … yeah. I felt as if those were the most well-rounded teams in each league — and, for the record, I still think they are. But as Nick Castellanos said, the postseason is a completely different beast. And neither of those two teams hit anywhere near as much as they should have.

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Bama’s ‘uncharacteristic’ gaffes doom CFP hopes

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Bama's 'uncharacteristic' gaffes doom CFP hopes

NORMAN, Okla. — Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer lamented his team’s “uncharacteristic” mistakes in the aftermath of a 24-3 loss to Oklahoma on Saturday night that dealt a significant blow to the Crimson Tide’s College Football Playoff hopes.

Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe threw three interceptions, and the Crimson Tide (8-3, 4-3 SEC) never shook off a slow start against an Oklahoma defense that held them to a season-low 70 rushing yards.

Meanwhile, the Sooners (6-5, 2-5) — relying on the legs of quarterback Jackson Arnold and freshman running back Xavier Robinson — gashed Alabama for 257 rushing yards on their way to sealing bowl eligibility for a 26th consecutive season.

The Crimson Tide have three losses for the first time since 2010.

Alabama began Week 13 in line to reach the SEC title game on Dec. 7 with wins over Oklahoma then Auburn during the final two weeks of the regular season. Instead, the Crimson Tide’s road stumble helped No. 10 Georgia clinch a spot in the conference championship and left Alabama’s path into the CFP on shaky ground. Even if the Tide beat the Tigers in the Iron Bowl next weekend, Alabama will need plenty of help in order to land a spot in the 12-team playoff field.

Following the program’s lowest-scoring performance since 2004, DeBoer focused on the Tide’s early errors in a game he said “got away” from them after halftime.

“We got to be better in all ways,” DeBoer said. “Some simple things, uncharacteristic things, happened early in the game where we didn’t get the momentum on our side. And really, it comes down to the end of the first half [with] them scoring a touchdown and the turnovers really kind of changing the momentum of the game there.”

It was a particularly rough night for Milroe. The junior went 11-for-26 for 164 yards passing and managed just 7 yards rushing on 15 attempts. Alabama trailed 10-3 early in the third quarter when Oklahoma cornerback Eli Bowen intercepted Milroe, setting up Robinson’s second touchdown run of the game four plays later. The Sooners’ lead grew to 24-3 on the ensuing possession after linebacker Kip Lewis jumped Milroe’s throw to tight end Robbie Ouzts and returned it 49 yards for a score.

Oklahoma’s 21-point advantage marked Alabama’s largest deficit against an unranked opponent since 2003. The Tide picked up only five first downs and 80 yards total after Milroe’s back-to-back picks. He became the first Alabama quarterback to throw three interceptions in a game since 2015 on Woodi Washington‘s game-sealing pick with 6:53 remaining in the contest.

While Milroe struggled, DeBoer saw wider problems in an offense that never recovered from a sloppy first half, which included punts on three of the Tide’s first four possessions.

“I think stepping back, it just felt like early in the game there were different things — drops, balls we lost in the lights — different, uncharacteristic things. Weird things that happened,” DeBoer said. “I thought [Milroe] was actually putting the ball where he needed to. We just needed to help him out a little bit.”

Sooners coach Brent Venables said Oklahoma was the more “physical football team,” and his offense proved it with 205 first-half rushing yards that marked the most Alabama has allowed in a half since 2007. The Tide continued to struggle against the Sooners’ rushing attack after halftime without linebacker Deontae Lawson. Alabama’s second-leading tackler was ruled out for the remainder of the game after exiting with a lower body injury in the second quarter.

DeBoer did not provide an update on Lawson’s status following the game.

“Anytime you lose a great player like Deontae, it’s going to affect you,” DeBoer said. “His leadership. He’s the guy who makes a lot of the calls on the field. Just seems like he’s always in control.”

The stunning defeat leaves the Tide’s postseason hopes in a precarious position entering the final week of the regular season. With those playoff aspirations no longer in Alabama’s control ahead of an Iron Bowl visit from the Tigers, its quarterback was focused on moving forward.

“It’s all about finish,” Milroe said late Saturday night. “We’ve got to finish. There’s so much left for the football season. We’ve got to get everyone together to have a like-mindedness and just keep on competing. Every opportunity that we have, we’ve just got to seize it.”

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SEC chaos sends UGA back to league title game

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SEC chaos sends UGA back to league title game

A wild day in the SEC produced only one postseason guarantee: Georgia is headed back to the conference championship game for a fourth consecutive season.

The league confirmed Georgia’s spot in the Dec. 7 title game in Atlanta shortly after No. 15 Texas A&M‘s 43-41 loss at Auburn in four overtimes. The Aggies were one of three top-15 SEC teams to lose to unranked foes on the road Saturday, as No. 7 Alabama lost 24-3 at Oklahoma and No. 9 Ole Miss fell at Florida 24-17.

No. 10 Georgia will face the winner of next week’s game between No. 3 Texas and Texas A&M in College Station. The Longhorns and Aggies have not met since 2011, when they were both members of the Big 12. Texas beat visiting Kentucky 31-14 on Saturday, and the Horns remain the only one-loss team in the SEC.

Georgia, which has lost to both Alabama and Ole Miss on the road but owns wins against Texas and No. 11 Tennessee, beat UMass 59-21 on Saturday at Sanford Stadium.

The Crimson Tide entered the day needing to beat Oklahoma then Auburn and for No. 23 Missouri to win once in its final two league games in order to punch their ticket to Atlanta. (Missouri prevailed 39-20 at Mississippi State on Saturday.)

Georgia lost to Alabama in the 2023 SEC title game, costing the Bulldogs a spot in the final four-team College Football Playoff.

Asked about Georgia’s path to the SEC title game after the UMass game, Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart said he was thinking solely about next week’s regular-season finale against visiting Georgia Tech.

Georgia won the SEC title game in 2017 and 2022, while falling in 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2023.

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What we learned in Week 13: Chaos strikes the SEC, midnight strikes for Cinderellas

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What we learned in Week 13: Chaos strikes the SEC, midnight strikes for Cinderellas

Somewhere, Greg Sankey is asking ChatGPT to write an argument in favor of the SEC still gobbling up every vacant playoff spot despite Saturday’s results, and a bunch of servers in Texas are smoking and sputtering and deciding that humanity isn’t worth overtaking.

After weeks of lamentations that the SEC has eaten itself because of the depth of quality in the league, it wasn’t the quality teams that feasted in Week 13. It was the hungry, huddled masses of Auburn, Florida and Oklahoma.

The matinee of this horror festival saw Florida, a team given up for dead a month ago, grant Lane Kiffin his wish to avoid the SEC championship game by delivering a stunning 24-17 win over No. 9 Ole Miss.

That sound you’re hearing? That’s the sound of thousands of Florida fans deleting message board and other social media posts imploring the school to fire Billy Napier and back up a Brink’s truck to land Kiffin as the Gators’ next head coach.

DJ Lagway threw two touchdown passes, Montrell Johnson ran for 107 yards and a score, and the Florida defense racked up three takeaways — including picking off Jaxson Dart on each of Ole Miss’ final two drives — to secure the win.

In the aftermath, Florida players slapped a Gators logo on Ole Miss’ prop basketball hoop and proceeded to dunk — figuratively and literally — on the Rebels.

All of that set up this walk of shame by the Ole Miss equipment staff, forced to recover the hoop with the Gators logo still on it.

That might be the most embarrassing moment involving a basketball hoop since all of the 76ers games this year.

The meat in this Misery McRib came courtesy of Oklahoma, a team so bereft of offense that it fired its coordinator and decided Saturday to just let the defense handle the bulk of the scoring.

The Sooners picked off Jalen Milroe three times in the 24-3 win over No. 7 Alabama, gaining bowl eligibility and handing the Tide a third loss in the regular season for the first time since 2010.

Oklahoma rarely threw the ball in the win, with Jackson Arnold completing just 9 of 11 throws for 68 yards, but he added a game-high 131 on the ground. It was a coming-of-age performance for the young QB, and it also offered some hope to a fan base that had been clinging to Lincoln Riley’s struggles as the only source of happiness in 2024.

The grand finale of the SEC’s assault on mediocrity came on The Plains, as Texas A&M roared back from a 21-0 deficit to take a late lead only to see Auburn tie it on a short kick with seconds to then win it in a fourth overtime when a Marcel Reed pass was dropped in the end zone.

On one hand, it was deflating to see the Aggies play this many overtimes in a game that didn’t end with Jimbo Fisher’s nephew picking a fight with someone. But worse, it also was loss No. 3 on the season for Texas A&M, putting its playoff hopes on life support, too.

And so here’s where the SEC stands with just one Saturday remaining in the regular season: Texas is 10-1 with the renewal of the rivalry against A&M awaiting. Georgia, Tennessee and the Aggies all have two conference losses, but the Dawgs did officially clinch a spot in the conference title game. Alabama and Ole Miss are officially out of the SEC title race.

But forget those standings. Consider this:

Texas was demolished by Georgia, its only game against a team with seven or more wins this year.

Ole Miss beat Georgia, but has lost to Kentucky and Florida.

Alabama beat Georgia, but has lost to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma.

Tennessee beat Alabama, but lost to Arkansas.

A&M beat Missouri and LSU, both ranked in the top 10 at the time, but lost to Auburn.

South Carolina‘s key wins — A&M and Missouri — don’t look so impressive anymore, while the teams the Gamecocks lost to (LSU, Bama and Ole Miss) all have ugly losses themselves now.

So, sure, the SEC has depth. Thirteen teams are now bowl eligible (and Auburn could join them with an Iron Bowl win next week). But it’s hard to argue that depth is the reason the conference is so chock full of teams scuffling along the fringes of the playoff. It’s one thing to make the case an SEC team with more losses warrants special consideration compared with Indiana or SMU or Arizona State when those losses come against Georgia or Texas. It’s another thing when Vanderbilt is involved in the equation.

It’s almost as if the top of the SEC is both quite good and inherently flawed, like every season of “24.” There’s no great reason to suggest the SEC won’t be the last league standing when the first 12-team playoff comes to an end, but there’s also no reason to assume it warrants the lion’s share of the at-large bids either.

So, when the ACC is hilariously punching its third ticket to the dance, and Clemson coach Dabo Swinney pops out of a coffin like The Undertaker, don’t go blaming the committee. Things look different after Week 13. There is no real hierarchy, no conference supremacy. There are a handful of clearly good teams — Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia — and a whole lot of question marks after that.

In the end, that’s probably more fun for everyone.

Well, everyone except Sankey.

Jump to:
So long, Cinderellas | Big 12 chaos | Penn State survives
Miami rebounds | SMU clinches | Nebraska is bowl bound
Illinois survives | Saluting fired coaches
Beavers win Pac-12 | Week 13 trends
Heisman five | Under the radar

Sayonara, Cinderella

In every Cinderella story, there is a point when the clock strikes midnight and the magic wears off, and the beautiful damsel turns back into the 13th-best team in the Big Ten.

In some rare cases, the prince seeks her out anyway, glass slipper in hand, and they live happily ever after. Most of the time though, Cinderella ends up scrubbing kitchens and cleaning the chicken coop and telling her wicked stepsisters that, no, seriously, the committee once had her ranked No. 5 in the country.

Indeed, Saturday held no happy endings for 2024’s Cinderellas. Ohio State crushed Indiana; Kansas, back from the dead, demolished Colorado; and Notre Dame, eager to ruin the hopes and dreams of American patriots everywhere, steamrolled Army.

Perhaps this was all inevitable. Indiana entered play undefeated, but also had the No. 106 strength of schedule, according to ESPN. Army, too, was undefeated, but its schedule was even worse — No. 133. Colorado was 7-2, with the No. 73 schedule and a loss to the only ranked (at game time) team it had played. This wasn’t the work of magic, but of a favorable path to playoff contention.

On Saturday, that path led to a trio of brick walls.

Indiana entered Saturday looking for a movie-like script, hoping to become the first Hoosiers to ever overcome the odds against a heavily favored opponent on a big stage. Unfortunately, after Curt Cignetti pulled out a ladder to measure the height of Ohio State’s D-linemen, it was pretty clear they had no chance. The Buckeyes’ front dominated the Indiana O-line, holding Kurtis Rourke to just 8-of-18 for 68 yards passing and racking up five sacks in a dominant 38-15 win. After an initial 11-play, 70-yard touchdown drive, the Hoosiers managed just 81 more yards in the game.

Curt Cignetti, the college football coach most likely to still post his Wordle results to Facebook every morning, entered Saturday lauded by pundits, armed with a hefty new contract extension, and buoyed by apparently impressive Google results (though you’d still have to scroll through a bunch of sponsored ads before finding them). But by game’s end, he was left answering questions about Indiana’s playoff résumé, in spite of a 10-1 record.

Perhaps Cignetti knew something about the results of the SEC games to come.

Colorado’s playoff hopes, on the other hand, look all but over unless the Buffaloes can go on to win the Big 12 outright.

After a 2-6 start to the season, Kansas has now won three straight, all against ranked teams. On Saturday, the Jayhawks’ offense dominated, with Devin Neal running for 207 yards and three touchdowns — part of a 331-yard rushing day for Kansas that shocked Colorado coach Deion Sanders, who was previously unaware the rules allowed a team to run that often.

As for Army, Saturday’s blowout loss to Notre Dame represented its most humiliating moment since needing to ask the French for help during the Revolutionary War.

Riley Leonard threw for two touchdowns, Notre Dame’s ground game added five more, and the Irish won their eighth straight game. Notre Dame’s average margin of victory during the streak is 32 points. Only one of those wins has come by less than 18. The USC Trojans and the fading images of Week 2 are now all that stand between Notre Dame and a playoff berth.

There are other Cinderellas still alive in the playoff hunt, of course — Boise State, SMU, all those plucky upstarts in the SEC who’ve had to endure such tremendous depth and harsh treatment by the committee.

But Saturday was also a reminder that, for all the talk of parity in 2024, the rich tend to get richer, the kings stay the king and the Big 12 isn’t rigging games for ratings after all.

Whether that ultimately leads to a more entertaining postseason is up for debate. It is, after all, the Cinderella stories we cherish in other sports, even if we ultimately end up watching the biggest and baddest in the end. But what Indiana, Colorado and Army have proven in 2024 is that those stories still matter in college football, too, and if the glass slipper doesn’t fit in the end, that doesn’t mean it wasn’t still worth going to the ball. After all, balls usually have some nice hors d’oeuvres and an open bar, and we can always look back later and remember when everyone wanted to see Indiana take its turn dancing with the prince.


Chaos in the Big 12

Arizona State escaped two late comeback attempts by BYU — first on an interception by Javan Robinson and then by thwarting a Hail Mary after fans had already stormed the field and taken down a goal post — to win 28-23 and take the driver’s seat in the Big 12.

In the same week Skatteburgers went on sale around (most of) the state, Cam Skattebo ran for 147 yards, three touchdowns and a large order of fries in the win.

After jumping out to a 28-9 lead in the second half, Arizona State saw BYU climb back to within five with the ball before Robinson’s late pick. After seeming to run out the clock on a heave by QB Sam Leavitt, fans stormed the field and chaos ensued.

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Chaos ensues as ASU storms the field prematurely

Arizona State fans storm the field and tear down the goalposts with one second left on the clock before re-storming after a failed BYU Hail Mary.

In fairness, it’s hard to fault the Arizona State fans for being a bit unprepared for this moment. The Sun Devils were picked to finish last in the Big 12 and seemed left for dead as recently as one month ago when they lost to Cincinnati.

Arizona State is in the driver’s seat in the Big 12 now, but the path toward the conference title game is still a murky picture.

Iowa State survived a scare from Utah on Saturday despite a dominant defensive performance. Utah managed just nine first downs and 224 yards, but still had a 28-24 lead with less than two minutes to play thanks to a pick-six and a blocked punt. But Rocco Becht led a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive and the Utes missed a 54-yard kick to tie, with the Cyclones holding on for a 31-28 win.

Kansas State rebounded from a two-game skid, too, with a 41-15 win over Cincinnati behind 143 yards and two touchdowns from DJ Giddens.

With Colorado‘s Week 13 loss, that leaves four teams tied atop the league at 6-2 and five additional teams just off the pace at 5-3. As many as eight of those nine teams could feasibly end up tied for the conference lead after Week 14. In that case, the league will revert to its eight-team tiebreaker scenario, which is a gladiator-style cage match in which each head coach, armed only with their wits, cunning and a Super Soaker, battle to see who will be the last two survivors.


Nittany Lions survive

Let this be a lesson to coaches everywhere: You can’t score if you don’t have the football.

James Franklin, noted as a brilliant tactician who has never been criticized for controversial decisions in big moments as far as we know, avoided disaster by rolling the dice three times on fourth down in Penn State‘s final drive, running out the clock on a 26-25 win over Minnesota.

Drew Allar threw for 244 yards and accounted for two touchdowns, Nicholas Singleton gave Penn State its first lead in the third quarter with a 12-yard touchdown run, and the defense got two critical turnovers in the win, but it was Franklin’s decisions on the final drive that proved the difference.

Trailing by four, Minnesota settled for a short field goal with 5:48 to go, then kicked back to Penn State. The conservative approach looked to pay dividends when the Gophers held on a third-and-9, and Penn State set up to punt. But Franklin called for the fake, which Penn State ran to perfection, netting 32 yards, extending the drive. Franklin had the Lions go for it twice more on fourth-and-1, and the drive — 12 plays in all — ultimately closed out the game. The only two plays on the drive to gain more than 10 yards came on fourth down.

Was the offense largely listless otherwise? Sure. Was the special teams a disaster that nearly cost Penn State the game? You betcha. Was beating a 6-5 Minnesota team coming off a loss to Rutgers all that impressive? Probably not. But the important takeaway here is Penn State won, Franklin is a beloved football coach who hasn’t sullied his reputation in weeks and the committee will have the Nittany Lions as the No. 3 team in America this week because it likes to see Greg Sankey get really mad.


For much of this season, watching Miami has been like pharmaceutical commercials listing the side effects. Do not take Miami if you have heart disease, high blood pressure or 20/20 vision. Watching Miami may cause heartburn, nausea and the sudden desire to throw your remote at the TV. If you’ve maintained a coherent thought for more than four drives while watching Miami, contact your doctor immediately.

The first half of Saturday’s game against Wake Forest certainly felt like more of the same. The Canes’ D, criticized endlessly this season, had no answers for the Wake offense, save a Mishael Powell pick-six in the red zone. Miami celebrated that score by immediately surrendering a 100-yard kickoff return. And Cam Ward delivered one of his patented “Why throw it away when I can toss a left-handed shovel pass that will either go for a remarkable touchdown or a mind-boggling interception?” plays and this time, it was the latter.

And so the refrain began again: Miami may be 9-1, but the Canes are hardly worthy of a playoff berth.

But in the fourth quarter, we finally got a taste of that sweet, sweet Miami hype we hadn’t had since the USF game.

Miami reeled off 22 points in the final eight minutes, Jordan Lyle ran for 115 yards and a TD, Ward accounted for three touchdowns and Wake managed just 50 yards of offense in the second half as the Canes rolled to a 42-14 win.

So, which Miami will we see next week against 8-3 Syracuse in a game that will decide whether Miami or Clemson goes to the ACC championship game? Might want to have your doctor on speed dial for that one.


SMU clinches ACC title game berth

Kevin Jennings threw for 323 yards and accounted for three touchdowns in a 33-7 win over Virginia on Saturday that officially clinched a spot for SMU in the ACC championship game in the Mustangs’ first year in the league.

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SMU stays undefeated in the ACC with win over Virginia

SMU stays undefeated in the ACC with win over Virginia

SMU’s impressive 10-1 campaign, which includes a 7-0 record in ACC play thus far, should be one of the best stories of the season. Unfortunately, the Mustangs are basically the Jay Gatsby of college football — using their vast fortune to buy their way into high society only to find the old money elites won’t take them seriously and that green light off in the distance is just the committee’s way of signaling Miami will be ranked higher. Eventually, some three-loss SEC team will shoot them and leave them to bleed out in a pool — the second-worst death penalty SMU will have faced.


Dylan Raiola threw for 292 yards and Emmett Johnson rushed for 113 more as Nebraska finally earned bowl eligibility by picking up win No. 6 with a 44-25 victory over Wisconsin.

Nebraska has not played in a bowl game since 2016 — a time when the world was still mourning the loss of our beloved Harambe. Since then, Nebraska football has essentially been the plot of a “Saw” movie, the type of anguish and horror that can only be the product of some diabolically evil scheme dreamt up by a monster. But, at long last, Nebraska football has returned to its rightful place — in the middle of the Big Ten and one of the top 80 programs in the country.

Surely somewhere Matt Rhule is standing shirtless in the rain, relishing this first taste of freedom like Andy from “Shawshank Redemption.” Dana Holgorsen may also be shirtless somewhere but that’s unrelated.


Illinois moved to 8-3 with a 38-31 win over Rutgers that was somehow both utterly ridiculous and, for this Illini team, completely expected.

Trailing by 1 and facing a fourth-and-13 with 14 seconds to play, Luke Altmyer hit Pat Bryant for a 40-yard touchdown, and the Illini went on to win 38-31.

It was a ludicrous finish with four fourth-quarter lead changes and 23 points scored in the final 3:07, but this is old hat for Illinois. It’s the Illini’s fourth win of the season after trailing in the fourth quarter, more than any other team in the country, providing the Big Ten with a much-needed team that has lost to the good teams so the conference’s résumé doesn’t look completely lackluster. Penn State will be sending Bret Bielema a nice ham for Christmas.


Beavers win Pac-12

It has been a rough year for Oregon State, which entered Saturday sporting a 4-6 record. But Saturday was for all the marbles — and in this case, that would be exactly two marbles.

The Beavers hosted Washington State for the Pac-12 championship, which is sort of like being valedictorian of your home school class. Still, they delivered.

Ben Gulbranson threw for 294 yards and two touchdowns and Trent Walker caught eight balls in the 41-38 win. Washington State’s John Mateer was exceptional again — averaging nearly 11 yards per pass — but the Cougars’ defense failed for the second straight week.


A salute to the coaches we’ve lost

No Power 4 school has fired a head coach yet, which is something of a surprise this late in the season, but that doesn’t mean we’ve not said goodbye to some beloved names. There are currently 12 openings for 2025, including six announced in the past week.

Jim McElwain, Central Michigan

McElwain announced this week he planned to retire at season’s end, but before he was done, the Chippewas managed a 16-14 win over rival Western Michigan on Tuesday, thanks to a terrific defensive effort holding WMU to just 184 total yards.

All that remains between McElwain and retirement now is a finale against Northern Illinois. Then, after spending so many years in the frigid winters of Michigan, it’ll be time to set off for sunny shores — some place nice and hot. Maybe he’ll go fishing for some big targets. A shark, perhaps. And, when he does reel in that prized catch, he’ll want to take some celebratory photos. We can only hope that, in his post-football life, he’ll share those photos on the internet.

Anyone coaching Owls

Rice, Florida Atlantic, Kennesaw State and Temple are all looking for new head coaches, meaning all four programs with Owl nicknames fired their guys in the past month.

FAU beat Temple in Week 12 in a game so bad, both teams fired their head coaches afterward.

Temple then faced off against UTSA on Friday, with AD Arthur Johnson attempting to explain the decision in game, only for the team to provide all the evidence necessary.

FAU moved on from Tom Herman, and we can only hope he responded to the decision with a text back to the AD saying, “OK, cool. #HookEm.”

Poggi out, Poggi back

FAU lost its follow-up performance Saturday, 39-27 to Charlotte, which also fired its head coach, Biff Poggi. Charlotte will have to pay Poggi $1.3 million in a buyout, plus raise its shirt sleeve budget significantly for the next guy.

Poggi, meanwhile, pulled a George Costanza and just showed up at work anyway after being fired, hoping nobody would notice.

Frankly, it’s a shame Charlotte’s experiment to hire an investment banker with no on-field experience whose wardrobe can also be used to wax your car and who built a team by recruiting guys from his old high school under the auspices of filming a documentary that would air on Quibi didn’t work. It seemed like such a good idea at the time.


Week 13 vibe shifts

This week included some major swings in the playoff landscape, but we also try to keep tabs on some of the more subtle shifts in the college football universe here.

Trending down: Dawgs’ run defense

Since the start of 2020, Georgia has the best record of any team in the country at 58-6. Since the start of 2020, UMass has the worst record of any team in the country at 7-43. On Saturday, they faced off in Athens, Georgia, in a game that could have threatened a 108-year-old record.

As it turned out, the surviving members of the 1916 Cumberland team could pop the champagne they’ve been holding on to since prohibition and toast that their 222-0 record margin of defeat against Georgia Tech remains intact, as the Bulldogs only managed a pedestrian 59-21 win.

In fact, Georgia didn’t exactly look like a dominant team despite the talent mismatch. UMass actually ran for 226 yards in the game — or 29 more than the Minutemen managed against Wagner — and topped 20 points against a Power 4 team for the first time since 2021 (vs. Boston College).

The impressive rushing performance against Georgia now means UMass should crack the committee’s top 15 this week.

Trending down: Texas‘ strength of schedule

Texas beat Kentucky 31-14 on Saturday in a largely uninspiring performance that saw Quinn Ewers toss two touchdowns and Quintrevion Wisner run for 158 yards. Texas was fine. The Horns were never in real danger of losing, but they also didn’t really pull away until late in the fourth quarter. It’s fair to wonder if perhaps the Horns are just bored.

There are currently eight teams with seven or more wins in the SEC, and Texas hasn’t played any of them.

Is it Texas’ fault that the SEC rolled out the red carpet and forgot about strength of schedule in Year 1? Is it Texas’ fault that the Michigan Wolverines, a nonconference foe the Horns steamrolled, is a shell of its 2023 self? Is it Texas’ fault that SEC haters are elated to finally be able to hold the strength of schedule argument against an SEC team?

No. Of course not. But it is Texas’ fault we haven’t seen any of Arch Manning in weeks, and if we’re not going to get Arch in the playoff, then what’s the point of even putting the Horns in?

Trending up: BC miracles

Saturday was the 40th anniversary of Doug Flutie’s Hail Mary throw to beat Miami, a play on the Mount Rushmore of historic college football moments.

And on this Saturday, Boston College delivered another moment for the ages. With 11:20 left in the third quarter, BC rolled out kicker Liam Connor, who booted a 27-yard field goal that gave the Eagles a 20-point lead in a game they’d eventually win 41-21.

Doesn’t sound so miraculous? Consider that was just BC’s second made field goal all season. The Eagles doubled their total for the year and still have less than any other program in the country. BC’s only other field goal came in a win over Michigan State way back on Sept. 21. The Eagles have attempted just three all season. Aside from the 2020 COVID season when teams played abridged schedules, no team has attempted fewer than five field goals in a full season in at least the past 20 years.

Trending up: ACC tradition

On Saturday, Cal and Stanford played yet another edition of The Game, a showdown that has featured ACC legends such as Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, and included perhaps the most memorable moment in ACC history, when the band was on the field as Cal walked off with a win in 1982.

This time around, the Bears and Cardinal etched another memorable moment into the ACC history books.

In a game broadcast on its traditional window at 3:30 Eastern Time on the ACC Network, Stanford jumped out to a 21-7 lead in the second half, but the Bears, knowing how much this moment meant to ACC fans everywhere, refused to cede victory. Fernando Mendoza threw two fourth-quarter touchdowns to Jonathan Brady — a 30-yarder and a 22-yarder — to take a 24-21 lead with 2:40 to go, then ran out the clock with fans presumably chanting “A-C-C, A-C-C” in the waning moments, celebrating winning the traditional ACC rivalry trophy: a framed photo of Tommy Bowden holding a Raycom coffee mug.

Trending down: FSU skeptics

Florida State‘s much-maligned season has finally taken a turn for the better, as the Seminoles marched past a 1-11 FCS opponent, Charleston Southern, 41-7 on Saturday.

This is huge news for FSU for a couple reasons. First, the Noles doubled their season win total. Second, it gives us some additional insight into the school’s long-term plans in its ongoing lawsuit to escape the ACC. It’s clear now that Florida State plans to win its lawsuit, gain its freedom and join the Big South-OVC Association, where next season it’ll finish 8-4 and narrowly edge out Lindenwood for third place.


Heisman five

In the race for the Heisman, we may be ignoring something more compelling. This year’s race is as uniquely fun as any in recent memory.

Consider this: The three-man battle for the award is not about three QBs quietly going to work for the top teams in the country. The SEC and Big Ten don’t have real contenders for the honor. Instead, it’s a magician of a QB for an oft-maligned Miami, an unrelenting tailback for Boise State hoping to become the first Heisman winner from a program outside the major conferences since Ty Detmer in 1990 and a do-it-all superstar playing iron man football for Deion Sanders in the mix. And they’re all doing something historic, all are electric on a weekly basis and all are nearly impossible to compare against each other.

And as we head into the final weekend of the regular season, the race still seems to be completely up in the air.

1. Boise State Broncos RB Ashton Jeanty

He’s bruised and battered and battling injury. He’s facing stacked boxes with defenses putting nine defenders and a rancor from “Star Wars” at the line of scrimmage. And still, no one’s stopping Jeanty. In an otherwise miserable 17-13 win over Wyoming, Jeanty carried 19 times for 169 yards and a touchdown, officially crossing the 2,000-yard threshold on the season. If he hits his season average for rushing next week, he’ll wrap the regular season with the fifth-most rushing yards in FBS history.

2. Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter

Who’s the best player in the country? It’s hard to make the case that it’s anyone other than Hunter, who continues to do things no one has done before. In Saturday’s loss, he caught eight passes for 125 yards and two touchdowns and made seven tackles with a pass breakup. That the rest of the Buffs couldn’t stop Kansas was hardly his fault. It’s ironic that, if Hunter were at a less polarizing but more successful school such as Georgia or Alabama, he’d likely be getting more attention than he is playing for a school where the head coach will always be the biggest star. But Hunter is arguably one of the most dynamic and talented athletes to play college football since … Lamar Jackson? Bo Jackson? Barry Sanders? Jim Thorpe? Name a great. Hunter measures up.

3. Miami QB Cam Ward

The biggest critique of Ward this season is that he simply believes too much in his own ability to turn water into wine and sacks into touchdowns. Ward was terrific in Miami’s win over Wake Forest on Saturday, but the standard is so high with him, anything less than five touchdowns, 400 yards and sawing a lady in half during an official’s review just to keep the crowd entertained feels like a letdown. That’s the best explanation of how amazing Ward has been. A very good game feels boring.

4. Arizona State RB Cam Skattebo

He ran for 147 yards and three touchdowns on Saturday in a program-defining win over BYU. He’s selling burgers. His name is incredibly fun to say. Change the lyrics to the Pixies’ “Caribou” to “Skattebo” and it fits perfectly. In any other year, he’d be a household name. Regardless, he belongs in the Heisman discussion now.

5. Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel

The Ducks were off this week, which seemed nice.


Under-the-radar play of the week

“OK, guys, here’s the plan. We’re going to shift pre-snap and move the entire O-line out wide. Then we’re going to bring in some wide receivers to block. Then we’re going to have our true freshman QB handle throwing the pass. Should work like a charm.”

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GT gifted a quirky pick-six from botched pitch

NC State tries to run a trick sweep, but the pitch bounces off the running back’s helmet and into the arms of E.J. Lightsey for the 21-yard touchdown.

NC State‘s play design on this pick-six that ultimately cost the Wolfpack the game in a 30-29 loss to Georgia Tech is why some offensive coordinators should be kept away from the Red Bull.


Under-the-radar game of the week

South Dakota rallied from an 11-point deficit in the final four minutes Saturday to knock off FCS No. 1 North Dakota State, 29-28.

Aidan Bouman connected with Javion Phelps with just 12 seconds to go for a 25-yard, go-ahead touchdown to secure the win.

Bauman finished with 272 yards and two touchdowns — 120 yards and both scores coming in the final 3:40 of the game — and the Coyotes ran for 272 yards in the win.

With the victory, South Dakota claims a share of the Missouri Valley championship.

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