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Most Americans face tax hikes starting in 2026, and the increased federal tax bite will come about without Congress lifting a finger. That’s because 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) expires at the end of 2025, and despite some politicians’ contrary claims, a majority of Americans benefited from that law. The end of tax cuts for so many people necessarily results in corresponding increases to come.

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Δ Tax Cuts for Most, but With a Time Limit

“Unless Congress acts, the vast majority of Americans will see higher, more complicated taxes beginning in 2026 as major provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 expire,” warns the Tax Foundation. “The TCJA reduced average tax burdens for taxpayers across the income spectrum and temporarily simplified the tax filing process through structural reforms. It also boosted capital investment by reforming the corporate tax system and significantly improved the international tax system.”

The widespread benefits of the TCJA shouldn’t be a matter for debate. But there’s confusion because Team Biden and fans of high taxes fibbed about the law leading up to the 2020 presidential election.

“Biden’s false claim that no one but the rich got Trump’s tax cuts,” headlined a 2019 Washington Post Glenn Kessler piece about the debate over the law. “Most Americans received a tax cut,” he added.

“About 65 percent of households paid less in individual income taxes in 2018 as a result of the TCJA,” wrote the Tax Policy Center’s Howard Gleckman. “About 6 percent paid more. The rest paid about the same.”

Adjusting for all federal taxes under pre-TCJA law, the Cato Institute’s Chris Edwards commented, “lower? and middle??income groups received the largest relative individual income tax cuts.”

So, there’s widespread agreement that a law which cut taxes for most Americans is poised to expire, resulting in higher taxes. But, just as the benefits of the tax cuts varied across the population, so will the size of the bite taken by tax increases starting in 2026. Tax Hikes for All

“The largest average tax hikes would be experienced by taxpayers who reside in California’s congressional districts,” note the Tax Foundation’s Garrett Watson and Erica York. “For example, the congressional district covering the San Francisco area would see an average tax hike of $16,127 per taxpayer, the highest in the U.S. By contrast, northern New York City would see an average tax increase of $807 per taxpayer under TCJA expiration.”

That link takes you to a tool that lets you look up the estimated impact of TCJA expiration on taxpayers in states and congressional districts across the country.

Separately, the Tax Foundation published a tax calculator that lets you estimate the impact of TCJA expiration on you and your family, given specifics such as marital status, income, number of children, and choice of standard or itemized deductions. The calculator accounts for “most aspects of the federal individual income tax code except provisions related to business and self-employed income.”

That said, extending the TCJA’s tax cuts has high costs of its own since that would reduce the amount of money collected by the federal government to spend on its projects. Tax Cuts and Tradeoffs

“Federal tax revenues would fall by more than $4 trillion on a conventional basis and by nearly $3.5 trillion on a dynamic basis over the coming decade; and without spending cuts, debt and deficits would increase,” concedes a May Tax Foundation report on options regarding the law.

“By the year 2050, permanent extension of TCJA laws would reduce federal revenues from 18.4 percent to 17.1 percent of annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP),” Jagadeesh Gokhale and Mariko Paulson of the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model specify. “Federal debt held by the public would rise from 226.0 percent of GDP to 261.1 percent by 2050.”

But that decrease in revenue and corresponding rise in debt and deficits may matter only if it hampers a serious plan to control the federal government’s ongoing spending spree. Separately, the Penn Wharton Budget Model predicts that “a maximum debt-GDP ratio of 200 percent can be sustained even if investors believe (maybe myopically) that a closure rule will then prevent that ratio from increasing into the future.” They say the real ceiling on federal debt is more like 175 percent of GDP before the financial markets entirely lose faith in the U.S. economy. Debt as a percentage of GDP above that point is disastrous, whether at 226 percent or 261 percent.

It makes sense, then, for Americans to submit to significant tax hikes only if those increases go to balancing the federal budget, eliminating deficits, and controlling debt. Otherwise, we’re going to pay more for what is essentially the same very bad outcome. A Need for Serious Reform

Benefits of extending the TCJA, on the other hand, operate independent of faith in a sudden surge in responsibility among the political class. Extending the law’s provisions “would boost long-run GDP by 1.1 percent and employment by 913,000 full-time equivalent jobs,” according to the Tax Foundation.

For extending the TCJA, the Tax Foundation considers two options, both including modifications that seek to reduce the hit to federal revenues while maximizing gains for individuals. Option 2, for example, “broadens the individual income tax base by ending the income tax exclusion for employer-provided fringe benefits, most notably health insurance.”

That’s a matter of tweaking the current system around the edges to maintain relief for individuals and a faster-growing economy. Tax Foundation experts also propose possible fundamental changes, including entirely dumping the income tax system in favor of a consumption tax. That has the potential to significantly boost personal income as well as GDP and reduce the national debt. Of course, the gains really apply only if the government also reduces spending.

But such fundamental reform is a lot to ask of a political class that spent us into a corner and now wants tax hikes so there’s even more of our money to spend. Letting the TCJA expire requires placing enormous faith in people who got us into a fiscal mess to begin with.

Fundamental reforms to the federal government’s finances are absolutely necessary. Until that happens, we should resist stealth tax hikes so we can keep our hard-earned money for ourselves.

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UK

How e-bike riders are doing double the speed limit – and many of them work for fast food delivery firms

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How e-bike riders are doing double the speed limit - and many of them work for fast food delivery firms

It’s lunchtime on Birmingham’s New Street. 

Close to its many restaurants, food delivery riders are congregating on their bikes.

The area is packed with shoppers and workers.

PC Paige Gartlan is approaching with other officers. She’s on the lookout for illegally modified e-bikes – and she knows she’ll find them here.

“You can physically tell by looking at the bike that it’s generally going to be illegal – the battery pack is taped on to the sides and generally the size of the motor that’s on the back wheel,” she explains.

Sky News has been invited on an operation by West Midlands Police to find these bikes and get them off the streets.

PC Gartlan has been hit by one before. She’s had to tackle a rider to the floor after he drove into her.

More on Birmingham

Within minutes, she’s spotted a suspicious-looking bike. The rider makes a run for it – followed by plain-clothed officers.

PC Gartlan tests the bike – it’s showing a top speed of 52km/hr on the speedometer – just over 30mph.

PC Paige Gartlan with a seized e-bike
Image:
PC Paige Gartlan with a seized e-bike

The speed limit for e-bikes in the UK is 15.5mph when using electric power for assistance.

I look up the street and another two riders have been detained. In less than an hour, officers have confiscated four bikes – all were being ridden by fast food delivery drivers.

The commotion is attracting a lot of attention.

“They are dangerous,” Sandra, who has just finished work, tells me.

Demoz had his bike taken by police
Image:
Demoz had his bike taken by police

She’s stood watching the riders being questioned. She says she’s had near-misses herself and is worried for the safety of the elderly and children.

It’s not just West Midlands police officers here – immigration officials are carrying out checks too. They’re involved in a nationwide operation, which has seen more than 7,000 arrests in the last year – a 50% increase on last year.

Matthew Foster, the immigration enforcement lead officer for the West Midlands, tells me they’ve already found one individual who has entered the UK unlawfully.

“He’s been detained,” he says, “to affect his removal from the UK.”

Further down the street, police are loading illegally modified bikes on to a van – they’re destined to be crushed. One of them had belonged to Demoz.

Read more:
Non-folding e-bikes banned on London Tube
E-bike and e-scooter crimes soar 730% in five years

A e-bike that was seized by police in West Midlands
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An e-bike seized by West Midlands Police

He’s on his way home, carrying a big box with the logo of one of the main fast food delivery firms on it.

He tells me he used to have an illegal bike, but he thought his new one was legal.

“I make a mistake, I have to say sorry, I will do better for the future,” he says.

I get in touch with the big delivery firms; Deliveroo, Uber Eats, and Just Eat.

Their representatives say they constantly remind workers of their safety obligations, and that they’re all working closely with the government to increase security checks on riders.

As he leaves, Demoz, now bike-free, tells me he’s thinking of changing his job.

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UK

I can’t help feel Harry’s team are trying to push the reset button – here’s why

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I can't help feel Harry's team are trying to push the reset button - here's why

Watching pictures of Prince Harry in Angola this week took me back to 2019, when we were there for his first visit following in Princess Diana’s footsteps.

The pictures on Wednesday looked so similar; his effortless interactions with people who face the daily dangers of landmines, and his obvious passion to help a charity that he cares deeply about.

Of course so much has happened in the six years since then, but with other headlines this week, I couldn’t help but feel like we could be looking at the beginning of a reset for Harry.

It started last Saturday night, as the story emerged of a meeting between the King’s communications secretary, Harry’s new London-based head of PR, and Harry’s most senior aide in America.

Three people you may not have heard of, but a meeting that was quickly described as “peace talks”.

File photo dated 12/12/18 of King Charles III, then Prince of Wales, and the Duke of Sussex during a discussion about violent youth crime at a forum held at Clarence House in London. The Duke of Sussex's relationship with the King remains "distant", with Harry's letters and calls to his father going unanswered, sources have said. Issue date: Tuesday April 15, 2025.
Image:
The King and Prince Harry in 2018. Pic: PA

The pictures of the get-together were being sold for thousands of pounds by the paper that ran them, just one indication of the global fascination about whether father and son may be on the road to reconciliation.

Neither side are willing to go there when you ask what exactly they talked about, although I suspect some of it was much more practical than about trying to mend this fractured relationship.

More on Prince Harry

Things like trying to avoid unnecessary negative stories, for example, the kind where Harry is accused of snubbing his father because they just happen to be doing jobs on the same day.

Prince Harry meets landmine victim Sandra Tigica in Angola in 2019, who Princess Diana met on her visit to Angola in 1997.
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Prince Harry meets landmine victim Sandra Tigica in Angola in 2019, who Princess Diana met on her visit to Angola in 1997

It’s tricky for Harry’s camp to avoid such a situation when they don’t have sight of the King’s diary.

There’s also been the chatter about who may, or may not, have leaked the meeting.

There has been speculation around why they were out on a balcony, and who spotted the photographer in the park.

But whether it was a leak, or just a really good spot from a journalist or photographer, it’s not a bad thing for either side that we’re now all talking about whether father and son may be close to patching things up.

It did however raise other questions, about what it means for Prince William and his relationship with his brother.

So far there have been no indications of any meeting between William’s team and that of his brother.

The feelings of William also, you may think, a consideration for the King.

File photo dated 12/12/18 of King Charles III, then Prince of Wales, and the Duke of Sussex during a discussion about violent youth crime at a forum held at Clarence House in London. The Duke of Sussex's relationship with the King remains "distant", with Harry's letters and calls to his father going unanswered, sources have said. Issue date: Tuesday April 15, 2025.
Image:
The King and Prince Harry in 2018. Pic: PA

The unexpected headlines around Harry just kept coming, as on Tuesday he popped up in Angola.

His second visit there, this time with no press pack in tow.

So why the surprise visit?

Harry has worked with the Halo Trust for some time, and it’s clearly still a priority for them to highlight the dangers faced by those living with the potential dangers of landmines in Angola.

But it also feels like part of a push to get Harry out on more public engagements.

I’ve been told that since moving away from the UK he has continued to have regular contact with those charities with which he’s maintained ties, but being on the phone or a video call, isn’t the same as physically being there in person.

We saw something similar with his trip to China with Travalyst earlier this year, some may argue not the best choice of destination, but another example of wanting to get him physically out on visits to reinforce publicly those connections with causes that matter so much to him.

Read more:
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King’s state banquet for Macron in pictures

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Prince Harry follows in Diana’s footsteps

For some months now it’s felt like Meghan has regained an element of control over how she wants to be seen.

Just look at her social media accounts and the success of her “As Ever” brand.

Whether Harry for the first time would step on to the social media scene with his own public account we wait to see, although the idea of his own commercial project is more likely, with suggestions something may be in the pipeline, we wait and see what.

After a constant flow of stories in recent months relating to court cases or his ongoing row with his family, this week has felt different.

A lot has been made about Harry and Meghan establishing a new “court” and what lies behind their decision to hire new people, five years after they stepped away from royal life.

There are of course elements of the recent past that it is impossible to erase, even Harry, in his recent interview talked of how he would “love reconciliation with my family” but added, “Of course, some members of my family will never forgive me for writing a book. Of course, they will never forgive me for… lots of things.”

But it does feel like their new team are tentatively attempting to push the reset button; getting Harry out on more engagements just one way they hope to focus our minds back on to what he has always done best.

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World

Migrants locked up in notorious El Salvador jail released in Venezuela-US prisoner swap

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Migrants locked up in notorious El Salvador jail released in Venezuela-US prisoner swap

On Friday, Paola Paiva waited in a hotel near Caracas airport, nervous but giddy with excitement to be reunited with her brother, finally.

For five months, Arturo Suarez has been detained in a notorious prison in El Salvador.

“I am going to wait for my brother to call me,” she told Sky News, “and after giving him a hug, I want to just listen to him, listen to his voice. Let him talk and tell us his story.”

Suarez was one of the more than 250 Venezuelan migrants who had been living in America but were arrested in immigration raids by the Trump administration and sent to El Salvador, a showpiece act in the president’s promise to deport millions of migrants.

Paola Paiva holds a vigil for brother Arturo Suarez. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Paola Paiva holds a vigil for brother Arturo Suarez. Pic: Reuters

Most of the men had never even been to El Salvador before. Their detention has been controversial because the White House claims the men are all part of the dangerous Tren de Aragua gang but has provided little evidence to support this assertion.

The only evidence Paola had that Suarez was still alive was a picture of him published on a news website showing the inside of the maximum security CECOT jail.

He is one of dozens of men with their hands and feet cuffed, heads shaved and bodies shackled together.

More on El Salvador

Now he is returning to his home country, one of the bargaining chips in a deal that saw the release of ten Americans and US permanent residents who had been seized by the Venezuelan authorities.

Venezuelans arrive back in home country after being detained in El Salvador
Image:
Venezuelans arrive back in home country after being detained in El Salvador

Paola had tried to go to the airport to greet her brother as he disembarked a charter plane bringing the men back from El Salvador but authorities told her to wait at a nearby hotel.

“They told us they are taking them all to a hotel to rest,” she said.

“But I managed to get someone to give my phone number on a piece of paper to my brother, so I am expecting his call tomorrow, as soon as he can access a phone.

“We heard they are going to perform some medical exams on them and check their criminal records,” she added. “I’m not afraid; I’m not worried since my brother has a clean record.

“I am so happy. I knew this day would happen, and that it would be unexpected, that no one was going to notify us. I knew it was going to be a total surprise.”

US citizens released from Venezuela. Pic: Reuters
Image:
US citizens released from Venezuela. Pic: Reuters

The Trump administration had paid the El Salvador government, led by President Nayib Bukele, millions of dollars to imprison the men.

Homeland security secretary Kristi Noem visited CECOT last month, posing in front of prisoners for a photo opportunity.

Read more from Sky News:
Trump suing Wall Street Journal for $10bn after Epstein letter report
Tech company investigating viral footage of Coldplay concert couple

But Cristosal, an international human rights group based in El Salvador, says it has “documented systematic physical beatings, torture, intentional denial of access to food, water, clothing, health care,” inside the prison.

A video which was seemingly filmed aboard the charter flight bringing the Venezuelan migrants back to Caracas shows Arturo briefly talking about his experience inside.

He looks physically well but speaks into the camera and says: “We were four months with no communication, no phone calls, kidnapped, we didn’t know what (the) day was, not even the time.

“We were beat up at breakfast, lunch and dinner,” he continues.

Sky News interviewed Arturo Suarez‘s brother Nelson near his home in the US in April, weeks after Arturo – an aspiring singer – had been arrested by immigration and customs enforcement (ICE) agents while filming a music video inside a house.

Nelson said he believed Arturo’s only crime was “being Venezuelan and having tattoos.” He showed me documents that indicate Arturo has no criminal record in Venezuela, Chile, Colombia or the United States, the four countries he has lived in.

Now Nelson is delighted Arturo is being released – but worries for his future.

“The only thing that casts a shadow in such a moment of joy is that bit of anger when I think that all the governments involved are going to use my brother’s story, and the others on that flight, as political gain,” he said.

“Each of them will tell a different story, making themselves the heroes, when the reality is that many innocent people suffered unfairly and unnecessarily, and many families will remain separated after this incident due to politics, immigration and fear.”

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