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The entire landscape of Major League Baseball is virtually guaranteed to change from one season to the next. The annual awards that were handed out over the course of this week are yet another example of that.

Just to pick one race, let’s go with the AL MVP competition. Just before the season, SportsBetting.com ranked the most likely candidates as Mike Trout of the Angels and Luis Robert of the White Sox. Based on what we saw in 2020 and, for Trout, over a multiyear period, the status of favorite for both made sense. Indeed, both played like MVPs while they were on the field, but injuries kept both players off the field so often that they were never factors in the race.

Meanwhile, eventual landslide AL winner Shohei Ohtani was tied for third in the futures market with the Yankees’ Aaron Judge. But the AL finalists in addition to Ohtani were further down the list, with Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. coming in tied for eighth (at 20-1) and Blue Jays teammate Marcus Semien off the board entirely, so somewhere south of 100-1.

That’s just one award, but that dynamic repeats for all of them, no matter where you’re getting your odds. The reason is simple: Predicting the future is hard. It’s hard in life. Hard in sports. Hard when it comes to teams. It’s especially hard when it comes to players.

Let’s do it anyway. Here’s a very early stab at the 2022 MLB awards races. How early? So early, that you might even call it way too early.

AL Rookie of the Year

My favorites: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals; Adley Rutschman, Orioles; Shane Baz, Rays

Witt and Rutschman are two of the consensus top prospects in the game. Both are on a trajectory for a 2022 debut after they played extremely well when they reached Triple-A last season. We don’t know how the current CBA negotiations are going to affect MLB service time as it relates to arbitration eligibility and free agency, so we don’t know if the Royals and Orioles are going to see any benefit in delaying the debuts of their top prospects.

Baz doesn’t carry that caveat because he debuted for the Rays in 2021, and he was dominant over his first three big league outings. He even earned a Game 2 start for Tampa Bay in its division series against the Red Sox. He figures to be a rotation fixture for the Rays going forward, and the Rookie of the Year formula is always an uncertain combination of opportunity and performance.

Early indications are that Witt seems like a no-brainer to break camp with the Royals next spring. There’s simply nothing left for him to prove in the minors, and the Royals are trying to win, so if Witt is part of their best configuration, they’ll want him out there as often as possible. Rutschman’s ETA is a little more unclear than that, and the Orioles are not yet pushing toward contention. It would be great to see a season-long battle between Witt and Rutschman, because it could be a memorable one.

We can’t forget about Seattle OF Julio Rodriguez, who just might be the best prospect of them all. He hit .347 with patience, power and speed across two levels for Mariners affiliates in 2021. He also starred for the Dominican Republic during the Tokyo Olympics. Still, Rodriguez doesn’t turn 21 until Dec. 29, and right now has reached only Double-A, where he played 46 games this past season. The Mariners will try to contend in 2022, but have decent outfield depth.

Rodriguez might well force his way onto Seattle’s opening day roster, but if not, then he’d start behind the favorites in what is shaping up as a tremendous AL rookie class. How tremendous? Among other top prospects who could play significant roles next season whom we haven’t even mentioned are Baltimore righty Grayson Rodriguez, Detroit hitting prospects Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, and Kansas City catcher/slugger MJ Melendez.

Sleeper: Gabriel Moreno, Blue Jays

Moreno has rocketed up the prospect rankings by hitting everywhere he’s gone. Baseball America ranked Moreno as Toronto’s No. 8 prospect before last season and as the Jays’ second-best catching prospect behind Alejandro Kirk. By BA’s midseason rankings, Moreno held the No. 1 overall spot for the Jays. That’ll happen when you hit .367, get a smattering of Triple-A playing time at age 21 and keep on mashing during the Arizona Fall League. He lost development time to a thumb injury in 2021, and the Jays have Danny Jansen and Kirk as a nice combo behind the plate. Nevertheless, Moreno’s trajectory makes him a player to watch.

My pick: Witt. He’s the full package and should get a full season to show it.

NL Rookie of the Year

My favorites: Hunter Greene, Reds; Joey Bart, Giants; Brennen Davis, Cubs

It’s much harder to identify classic Rookie of the Year candidates on the NL side, but that’s not to say front-runners won’t emerge. We’ve shied away from listing some likely 2022 rookies as favorites here because of injuries (Padres IF C.J. Abrams) or a lack of consistency (Cardinals IF Nolan Gorman and SP Matthew Liberatore). Any of those players could show up in spring training and become what Jonathan India was for the 2021 Reds.

Bart seems to have the inside edge on succeeding Buster Posey as the Giants’ everyday catcher. He maintains his rookie status despite having 35 big league games under his belt. Posey’s retirement opens up the door of opportunity for him.

Greene is more of a question mark in terms of spending most of next season at the big league level, even though the Reds appear to be in veteran-shedding mode. After missing all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, Greene spent 2020 at Cincinnati’s alternate training site, so 2021 was his first game action since 2018. The stuff was still there — Greene will be a darling of anyone dazzled by Statcast readings — but his results tailed off after he ascended to Triple-A. Throwing his name into this mix is a testament to his raw stuff.

Davis is a fast riser in the Cubs’ system after adding more power to his arsenal. The rebuilding Cubs might have everyday at-bats available for a young player of his ilk, though it seems likely he’ll begin 2022 in Triple-A.

Sleeper: Sixto Sanchez, Marlins

Sanchez could have plenty of company in the Marlins’ 2022 rookie class, joining fellow hurlers Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera, and possibly slugging outfielder JJ Bleday. Sanchez is coming off surgery to repair a small tear in his shoulder, and while current reports are that he’ll be good to go in 2022, we have to see that happen before we can truly believe it — any kind of shoulder issue has to be handled delicately. Still, if Sanchez is a full go, we’ve already seen his stuff play in the majors, with an 80-grade fastball (per Baseball America) that earned him two postseason starts in 2020.

Other sleeper candidates include a pair of Cincinnati prospects — SS Jose Barrero and SP Nick Lodolo — as well as suddenly overlooked Braves CF Cristian Pache. Phillies SS Bryson Stott has gotten a lot of recent attention and the Phils do need a long-term shortstop solution.

My pick: Bart. He might not have the most upside of the NL rookie class, but he should be a steady and frequent contributor in a key role for a contending team.

AL Cy Young

My favorites: Lucas Giolito, White Sox; Jose Berrios, Blue Jays; Gerrit Cole, Yankees

This race looks like it’ll be wide open, with former winners Chris Sale, Shane Bieber and Justin Verlander all in various post-injury stages, and Cole having come back to the pack a little bit after his up-and-down second half last season.

Giolito struggled with some inconsistency in 2021, but he has a history of overcoming those issues with his cerebral, self-aware approach to the game. Also, anyone who is a fixture in the White Sox’s rotation is a contender, so in a subhead to this section, you might as well list Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease and maybe even Michael Kopech. There aren’t many managers who value length from starters like Tony La Russa, and while that might not turn the heads of voters like it once did, it might hold some sway in a tight race.

With Berrios, we also have to mention teammate Robbie Ray, the 2021 AL winner who is a free agent, so it’s hard to say he’s a favorite in either league. Meanwhile, Berrios is an underrated pitcher who combines durability and consistency as well as anyone, and his peripheral numbers have ticked up to the point where it feels like he’s poised for a career season.

As for Cole, he has plenty to prove after his 2021 drop-off, but he is still, after all, Gerrit Cole.

Sleeper: Shohei Ohtani, Angels

Corbin Burnes’ Cy Young win shows that you don’t need to lead the league in innings to win the honor in today’s game. Ohtani has the potential to put up a top-five season just for his pitching alone, and as good as he was on the mound in 2021, there were still some unpolished edges to his game. More than anything, it just feels like if Ohtani sets his sights on building a case for this award and boosting the oft-criticized Angels rotation, he, perhaps more than any player in the game, can get there by sheer will.

My pick: Berrios. A (relatively) new team, a contract extension — things just seem to be coming together for Berrios as he gets into the prime of his career.

NL Cy Young

My favorites: Walker Buehler, Dodgers; Zack Wheeler, Phillies; Jacob deGrom, Mets

The 2021 season was great, as all full baseball seasons are, but it wasn’t as great as it could have been because of major injuries to some of the game’s best players. None of those injuries was as devastating as were the maladies that limited to deGrom to 92 innings. Still, since the start of the 2018 season, here are deGrom’s numbers per 162 games: 12-8, 1.94 ERA and 289 strikeouts.

There is at least some sentiment that Wheeler got jobbed in the 2021 balloting, and if he can repeat his performance in 2022, maybe he gets a closer look next time around. The key question for him is whether there will be a price to pay from his leap in innings from 71 in 2020 to 213 1/3.

I remained convinced that Buehler is going to put it all together some year, post enormous numbers and run away with a Cy Young Award. His numbers were awfully good in 2021, so if he improves on those, look out.

Sleeper: Jack Flaherty, Cardinals

We’ve seen Flaherty enjoy a prolonged stretch when he pitched at an elite level before. Last season, he wasn’t quite at that level, and injuries had something to do with it. He’s at the point in his career where he could become the next career-long Cardinal, or position himself for a major payday in free agency. Next season could be the one in which Flaherty establishes himself over a full season as the ace the Cardinals need.

My pick: DeGrom. There are a lot of ifs for most of the pitchers mentioned in this piece, because that’s the nature of forecasting pitching. For deGrom, there is only one if: If he makes 30 or so starts, he is the front-runner.

AL MVP

My favorites: Shohei Ohtani, Angels; Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays; Mike Trout, Angels

For Ohtani, the question has to be whether some minor fatigue develops with the fascination of just how marvelously unique his 2021 season was. He did fall off a bit toward the end of the season at the plate, and if the Angels manage him a little more carefully going forward, that might be enough to open the door for someone else.

That someone else could certainly be Guerrero, whose 2021 numbers (1.002 OPS) were good enough to get him AL MVP honors in many seasons. The sustainability of those numbers, or at least most of them, is made more likely by the fact that they were undergirded by real improvements in approach and plate discipline, the kind of things that are usually sticky. As a reality check, you also think back to the heights of Bryce Harper’s age-22 season (1.109 OPS) and what came next, and you wonder if some regression is almost inevitable.

As for Trout, the only number of his that has declined is games played. Unfortunately, that’s a big one. After missing a total of 16 games from 2013 to 2016, he has missed at least 22 in each full season since. Yet he remains a player for whom a 1.000 OPS is the expectation, not the upside. Literally: His career OPS is 1.002. If he plays a full season of at least 140-145 games, he’ll be part of the MVP conversation.

Sleeper: Wander Franco, Rays

Franco entered the big leagues with the burden of having been baseball’s top consensus prospect for multiple seasons. With expectations so high, a disappointing debut seemed almost like an inevitability. Indeed, other than homering in his first game, he did get off to a slow start — for all of 15 games, during which he hit .197. After that, he hit .314/.372/.500. He also put up a BABIP of .311, which is kind of low for a player with his contact and line-drive ability. In the minors, he was at .334. So his already-impressive numbers could have been even better.

Franco doesn’t turn 21 until spring training, so maybe we’re jumping the gun. We’ve never had a position player win an MVP award in his age-21 season. Still, Franco is someone who leaped from top prospect status to putting up a consecutive-game on-base streak in the majors that had him listed alongside Mickey Mantle on a daily basis. Special players do special things.

My pick: Trout. This seems like less of an obvious pick than years past, because the mounting injury problems have really started to take over Trout’s narrative. How could they not after a season in which he went down with a calf strain in the middle of May, and then missed the rest of the season? Still, when he did play, he showed zero degradation of his skills. And his skills remain the best in the game.

NL MVP

My favorites: Juan Soto, Nationals; Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres; Mookie Betts, Dodgers

This is either a great list or a boring list. On one hand, the familiarity it conjures is a reflection of how many generational players there are in the senior circuit right now, and how many of them are either in their primes, or on the ascent. If you wanted to add Bryce Harper to that list, I wouldn’t argue with you. The only reason Ronald Acuna Jr. isn’t there is because we don’t know for sure when he’s coming back from his ACL tear, and we need to see if he has been in any way diminished by the injury.

Among the trio listed as favorites, Betts has the most to prove, though “prove” might not be an appropriate description. It’s simply that he is coming off a down season by his immense standards. He hit .264, matching his career low. The last time Betts hit that number, the following campaign he responded by hitting .346 with an OPS over 1.000 and posted an epic 10.7 bWAR.

Soto will be on the favorites list for the foreseeable future. It’s not just that he’s consistent. It’s that the level at which he produces that consistency is MVP-caliber. His mean expectation is just that high. Coming off his age-22 season, he has a career .981 OPS and has averaged 6.1 bWAR per 162 games. He showed us in the Home Run Derby what his raw power is. Now imagine Soto fully manifesting that raw power in games for a full season, going along with his best-in-the-game combination of strike zone judgment and plate discipline, and elite bat-to-ball skills. Excuse me while I clean up the drool from my keyboard.

And Tatis could hit 50 home runs and steal 40 bases as a shortstop. It’s an awfully exciting time in the National League.

Sleeper: Trea Turner. OK, Turner is a star player and not really the platonic ideal of a sleeper candidate, but I want to throw some attention his way. His power breakout in 2021 is a major development for a player who seems to have established himself as a .330-type hitter during this phase of his career and has some of baseball’s best speed skills. If he ends up moving back to shortstop full time to replace Corey Seager, he’ll have plenty of positional value as well. The competition in the NL is so fierce with elite talents that it is hard to imagine a real sleeper breaking through, so Turner is the best I can come up with.

My pick: Tatis. I see the Padres as having a big bounce-back year under Bob Melvin, not just because of the manager, but because of better injury luck. Tatis is going to produce, but he should put up his numbers in a more high-stakes context next year amid a three-team scrum with the Giants and Dodgers in the NL West. Soto is capable of putting up the kind of monster numbers to overcome that, but he will be handicapped to an extent by the fact that the Nationals aren’t likely to be very good.

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Suit accusing BYU QB Retzlaff of rape dismissed

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Suit accusing BYU QB Retzlaff of rape dismissed

A civil lawsuit accusing BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff of rape has been dismissed, according to court records.

The parties jointly agreed to dismiss with prejudice, ending the case which was filed last month. None of the parties was immediately available for comment.

Retzlaff now plans to transfer from BYU as he faces a possible seven-game suspension for violating the school’s honor code by admitting to premarital sex during the legal proceedings, sources told ESPN. He has begun informing staff and teammates of his intention to leave, sources said.

Retzlaff had been working out with the squad and participating in summer workouts and practices. The team is on break until July 7.

The BYU staff has been ramping up the preparation of the three backup quarterbacks — McCae Hillstead, Treyson Bourguet and Bear Bachmeier — in anticipation that Retzlaff might not be available.

The woman alleged Retzlaff raped, strangled and bit her in November 2023. In a response to that lawsuit filed Friday, a lawyer representing Retzlaff denied those allegations but said Retzlaff had consensual sex with the woman.

The response indicated Retzlaff and the woman traded lighthearted text messages for months after the encounter and characterized the lawsuit as an extortion attempt based on the idea that Retzlaff developed into an NFL prospect roughly a year later.

The lawsuit described the encounter much differently.

Both the complaint and the response agree that Retzlaff and the woman connected through social media, which led to her visiting Retzlaff’s apartment to play video games on or around Nov. 22, 2023. The woman arrived with a friend, and friends and teammates of Retzlaff also were present.

Later that evening, the woman’s friend left, after which Retzlaff and the woman started watching a movie and began to kiss, the lawsuit states. While “Retzlaff began escalating the situation,” the suit says, “Jane Doe A.G. tried to de-escalate the situation and attempted to slow things down, trying to pull away, and saying ‘wait.’ She did not want to do anything sexual with him.”

The lawsuit says the woman told Retzlaff “no” and “wait, stop,” but he continued to force himself on her. After she tried to get up out of the bed, the lawsuit alleges, in graphic detail, that Retzlaff put his hands around her neck and proceeded to rape her.

A few days later, the woman visited a hospital, where a rape kit was performed and pictures of her injuries were taken. The lawsuit says she was connected with Provo, Utah, police but did not initially share Retzlaff’s name.

No criminal charges have been filed against Retzlaff.

After the lawsuit was filed, BYU issued a statement, saying: “The university takes any allegation very seriously, following all processes and guidelines mandated by Title IX. Due to federal and university privacy laws and practices for students, the university will not be able to provide additional comment.”

Retzlaff is not the first high-profile BYU athlete who faced a lengthy suspension for an honor code violation related to premarital sex. In 2011, basketball player Brandon Davies was dismissed from the team — which at the time was 27-2 and ranked No. 3 in the country — and suspended from school. He was reinstated that fall. In 1999, running back Reno Mahe was suspended from school and forced to leave the football team. He transferred to a junior college and later reenrolled at BYU.

Retzlaff, who has graduated from BYU, is expected to enter his name in the transfer portal in the coming days. He started 13 games for the Cougars in 2024, his first year as the starter, leading the team to an 11-2 record. He passed for 2,947 yards and 20 touchdowns with 12 interceptions.

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Pac-12 welcomes Texas St. ahead of ’26 relaunch

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Pac-12 welcomes Texas St. ahead of '26 relaunch

Texas State has officially joined the Pac-12, the conference announced Monday, becoming the league’s ninth member ahead of its relaunch in 2026.

“We are extremely excited to welcome Texas State as a foundational member of the new Pac-12,” commissioner Teresa Gould said in a statement. “It is a new day in college sports and the most opportune time to launch a new league that is positioned to succeed in today’s landscape with student-athletes in mind.”

Texas State’s board of regents voted to authorize a $5 million buyout to the Sun Belt Conference early Monday. The Bobcats will remain in the Sun Belt through the 2025-26 season before joining the Pac-12 in all sports for the 2026-27 school year.

The Pac-12 needed to reach eight football-playing schools to meet the NCAA minimum for an FBS conference prior to the 2026 season.

The conference’s board of directors, which includes representatives from all current and future members, voted unanimously to admit Texas State following the university’s formal application. Texas State joins Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Gonzaga, Oregon State, San Diego State, Utah State and Washington State as members of the rebuilt league.

Texas State president Kelly Damphousse called the move “a historic moment” for the university.

“Joining the Pac-12 is more than an athletic move — it is a declaration of our rising national profile, our commitment to excellence, and our readiness to compete and collaborate with some of the most respected institutions in the country,” Damphousse said.

Athletic director Don Coryell echoed that sentiment, calling the opportunity “a new era” for Texas State, which has been in the Sun Belt since 2013 after making its FBS debut with one season in the WAC in 2012.

“This historic moment belongs to our coaches, staff, student-athletes, fans, alumni and students,” Coryell said. “As the Pac-12’s flagship school in Texas, we proudly embrace the opportunity and responsibility that comes with it.”

The long-awaited announcement comes on the heels of the Pac-12’s announcement last week that it had finalized a five-year agreement with CBS for a portion of the conference’s football and men’s basketball media rights, including both sports’ championship game. Additional media partners are expected to be announced in the coming weeks.

Texas State is located in San Marcos, which is only about 35 miles south of the University of Texas in Austin. Texas State has more than 40,000 students, with one of the 25 largest undergraduate enrollments among public universities in the U.S.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Alabama lands top 3 OLB Griffin for 2026 class

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Alabama lands top 3 OLB Griffin for 2026 class

Alabama’s 2026 recruiting class landed another significant late-June recruiting boost Saturday when four-star defender Xavier Griffin, ESPN’s No. 3 outside linebacker, announced his commitment to the Crimson Tide over Florida State, Ohio State and Texas.

Griffin, a versatile, 6-foot-4, 205-pound prospect from Gainesville, Georgia, is the No. 30 overall recruit in the 2026 ESPN 300. A former longtime USC commit, Griffin took official visits with each of his finalists in June. He now stands as the top-ranked prospect among 14 commits in Alabama’s incoming class, joining days after the program secured top 300 pledges from running back Ezavier Crowell (No. 31 overall) and tight end Mack Sutter (No. 138) on Thursday night.

Griffin told ESPN that the Crimson Tide’s pedigree and vision laid out by Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer and outside linebackers coach Christian Robinson were driving factors in his decision.

“Growing up, just seeing them, all the draft picks and stuff that they’ve had — all the guys they’ve put in the league — it speaks for itself,” Griffin said. “They have history and they’re really clear about what they’re trying to build with this new staff.”

A physical defender capable of dropping into coverage, Griffin has cemented his status as one the nation’s top linebackers at Gainesville (Georgia) High School, where he’s recorded 97 total tackles and 21 sacks across his sophomore and junior seasons.

He initially committed to USC last July and remained one of the Trojans’ top prospects over next 10 months before Griffin pulled his pledge from the program on May 14. Sources told ESPN at the time that Griffin’s decommitment stemmed from his intention to schedule official visits with programs this spring, bucking against USC’s policy against committed players taking official trips to other campuses.

Upon reopening his recruitment, Griffin locked in official visits with Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and Texas for this month, closing with a trip to the Crimson Tide from June 20-22. Despite his lengthy USC pledge, Griffin told ESPN that no program recruited him more actively than Alabama across the past two years, led by Robinson, the program’s second-year assistant.

“He’s been one of the most consistent with me throughout my whole process,” Griffin said. “He’s just a really, really good guy.”

The highest-ranked of seven ESPN 300 pledges bound for Alabama in 2026, Griffin now leads an increasingly talented Crimson Tide defensive class forming in the current cycle.

Alongside Griffin, Alabama holds commitments from top-10 cornerbacks Jorden Edmonds (No. 38 overall) and Zyan Gibson (No. 65) in 2026. Defensive end Jamarion Matthews, Griffin’s teammate at Gainesville High School and ESPN’s No. 92 overall recruit, has been pledged to the Crimson Tide since February, and Alabama’s latest defensive class could get even deeper over the next month as priority targets including top-60 prospects Jireh Edwards, Anthony Jones and Nolan Wilson approach the final stages of their recruiting processes.

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