The entire landscape of Major League Baseball is virtually guaranteed to change from one season to the next. The annual awards that were handed out over the course of this week are yet another example of that.
Just to pick one race, let’s go with the AL MVP competition. Just before the season, SportsBetting.com ranked the most likely candidates as Mike Trout of the Angels and Luis Robert of the White Sox. Based on what we saw in 2020 and, for Trout, over a multiyear period, the status of favorite for both made sense. Indeed, both played like MVPs while they were on the field, but injuries kept both players off the field so often that they were never factors in the race.
Meanwhile, eventual landslide AL winner Shohei Ohtani was tied for third in the futures market with the Yankees’ Aaron Judge. But the AL finalists in addition to Ohtani were further down the list, with Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. coming in tied for eighth (at 20-1) and Blue Jays teammate Marcus Semien off the board entirely, so somewhere south of 100-1.
That’s just one award, but that dynamic repeats for all of them, no matter where you’re getting your odds. The reason is simple: Predicting the future is hard. It’s hard in life. Hard in sports. Hard when it comes to teams. It’s especially hard when it comes to players.
Let’s do it anyway. Here’s a very early stab at the 2022 MLB awards races. How early? So early, that you might even call it way too early.
AL Rookie of the Year
My favorites: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals; Adley Rutschman, Orioles; Shane Baz, Rays
Witt and Rutschman are two of the consensus top prospects in the game. Both are on a trajectory for a 2022 debut after they played extremely well when they reached Triple-A last season. We don’t know how the current CBA negotiations are going to affect MLB service time as it relates to arbitration eligibility and free agency, so we don’t know if the Royals and Orioles are going to see any benefit in delaying the debuts of their top prospects.
Baz doesn’t carry that caveat because he debuted for the Rays in 2021, and he was dominant over his first three big league outings. He even earned a Game 2 start for Tampa Bay in its division series against the Red Sox. He figures to be a rotation fixture for the Rays going forward, and the Rookie of the Year formula is always an uncertain combination of opportunity and performance.
Early indications are that Witt seems like a no-brainer to break camp with the Royals next spring. There’s simply nothing left for him to prove in the minors, and the Royals are trying to win, so if Witt is part of their best configuration, they’ll want him out there as often as possible. Rutschman’s ETA is a little more unclear than that, and the Orioles are not yet pushing toward contention. It would be great to see a season-long battle between Witt and Rutschman, because it could be a memorable one.
We can’t forget about Seattle OF Julio Rodriguez, who just might be the best prospect of them all. He hit .347 with patience, power and speed across two levels for Mariners affiliates in 2021. He also starred for the Dominican Republic during the Tokyo Olympics. Still, Rodriguez doesn’t turn 21 until Dec. 29, and right now has reached only Double-A, where he played 46 games this past season. The Mariners will try to contend in 2022, but have decent outfield depth.
Rodriguez might well force his way onto Seattle’s opening day roster, but if not, then he’d start behind the favorites in what is shaping up as a tremendous AL rookie class. How tremendous? Among other top prospects who could play significant roles next season whom we haven’t even mentioned are Baltimore righty Grayson Rodriguez, Detroit hitting prospects Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, and Kansas City catcher/slugger MJ Melendez.
Moreno has rocketed up the prospect rankings by hitting everywhere he’s gone. Baseball America ranked Moreno as Toronto’s No. 8 prospect before last season and as the Jays’ second-best catching prospect behind Alejandro Kirk. By BA’s midseason rankings, Moreno held the No. 1 overall spot for the Jays. That’ll happen when you hit .367, get a smattering of Triple-A playing time at age 21 and keep on mashing during the Arizona Fall League. He lost development time to a thumb injury in 2021, and the Jays have Danny Jansen and Kirk as a nice combo behind the plate. Nevertheless, Moreno’s trajectory makes him a player to watch.
My pick: Witt. He’s the full package and should get a full season to show it.
It’s much harder to identify classic Rookie of the Year candidates on the NL side, but that’s not to say front-runners won’t emerge. We’ve shied away from listing some likely 2022 rookies as favorites here because of injuries (Padres IF C.J. Abrams) or a lack of consistency (Cardinals IF Nolan Gorman and SP Matthew Liberatore). Any of those players could show up in spring training and become what Jonathan India was for the 2021 Reds.
Bart seems to have the inside edge on succeeding Buster Posey as the Giants’ everyday catcher. He maintains his rookie status despite having 35 big league games under his belt. Posey’s retirement opens up the door of opportunity for him.
Greene is more of a question mark in terms of spending most of next season at the big league level, even though the Reds appear to be in veteran-shedding mode. After missing all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, Greene spent 2020 at Cincinnati’s alternate training site, so 2021 was his first game action since 2018. The stuff was still there — Greene will be a darling of anyone dazzled by Statcast readings — but his results tailed off after he ascended to Triple-A. Throwing his name into this mix is a testament to his raw stuff.
Davis is a fast riser in the Cubs’ system after adding more power to his arsenal. The rebuilding Cubs might have everyday at-bats available for a young player of his ilk, though it seems likely he’ll begin 2022 in Triple-A.
Sanchez could have plenty of company in the Marlins’ 2022 rookie class, joining fellow hurlers Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera, and possibly slugging outfielder JJ Bleday. Sanchez is coming off surgery to repair a small tear in his shoulder, and while current reports are that he’ll be good to go in 2022, we have to see that happen before we can truly believe it — any kind of shoulder issue has to be handled delicately. Still, if Sanchez is a full go, we’ve already seen his stuff play in the majors, with an 80-grade fastball (per Baseball America) that earned him two postseason starts in 2020.
Other sleeper candidates include a pair of Cincinnati prospects — SS Jose Barrero and SP Nick Lodolo — as well as suddenly overlooked Braves CF Cristian Pache. Phillies SS Bryson Stott has gotten a lot of recent attention and the Phils do need a long-term shortstop solution.
My pick: Bart. He might not have the most upside of the NL rookie class, but he should be a steady and frequent contributor in a key role for a contending team.
This race looks like it’ll be wide open, with former winners Chris Sale, Shane Bieber and Justin Verlander all in various post-injury stages, and Cole having come back to the pack a little bit after his up-and-down second half last season.
Giolito struggled with some inconsistency in 2021, but he has a history of overcoming those issues with his cerebral, self-aware approach to the game. Also, anyone who is a fixture in the White Sox’s rotation is a contender, so in a subhead to this section, you might as well list Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease and maybe even Michael Kopech. There aren’t many managers who value length from starters like Tony La Russa, and while that might not turn the heads of voters like it once did, it might hold some sway in a tight race.
With Berrios, we also have to mention teammate Robbie Ray, the 2021 AL winner who is a free agent, so it’s hard to say he’s a favorite in either league. Meanwhile, Berrios is an underrated pitcher who combines durability and consistency as well as anyone, and his peripheral numbers have ticked up to the point where it feels like he’s poised for a career season.
As for Cole, he has plenty to prove after his 2021 drop-off, but he is still, after all, Gerrit Cole.
Sleeper: Shohei Ohtani, Angels
Corbin Burnes’ Cy Young win shows that you don’t need to lead the league in innings to win the honor in today’s game. Ohtani has the potential to put up a top-five season just for his pitching alone, and as good as he was on the mound in 2021, there were still some unpolished edges to his game. More than anything, it just feels like if Ohtani sets his sights on building a case for this award and boosting the oft-criticized Angels rotation, he, perhaps more than any player in the game, can get there by sheer will.
My pick: Berrios. A (relatively) new team, a contract extension — things just seem to be coming together for Berrios as he gets into the prime of his career.
The 2021 season was great, as all full baseball seasons are, but it wasn’t as great as it could have been because of major injuries to some of the game’s best players. None of those injuries was as devastating as were the maladies that limited to deGrom to 92 innings. Still, since the start of the 2018 season, here are deGrom’s numbers per 162 games: 12-8, 1.94 ERA and 289 strikeouts.
There is at least some sentiment that Wheeler got jobbed in the 2021 balloting, and if he can repeat his performance in 2022, maybe he gets a closer look next time around. The key question for him is whether there will be a price to pay from his leap in innings from 71 in 2020 to 213 1/3.
I remained convinced that Buehler is going to put it all together some year, post enormous numbers and run away with a Cy Young Award. His numbers were awfully good in 2021, so if he improves on those, look out.
We’ve seen Flaherty enjoy a prolonged stretch when he pitched at an elite level before. Last season, he wasn’t quite at that level, and injuries had something to do with it. He’s at the point in his career where he could become the next career-long Cardinal, or position himself for a major payday in free agency. Next season could be the one in which Flaherty establishes himself over a full season as the ace the Cardinals need.
My pick: DeGrom. There are a lot of ifs for most of the pitchers mentioned in this piece, because that’s the nature of forecasting pitching. For deGrom, there is only one if: If he makes 30 or so starts, he is the front-runner.
AL MVP
My favorites: Shohei Ohtani, Angels; Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays; Mike Trout, Angels
For Ohtani, the question has to be whether some minor fatigue develops with the fascination of just how marvelously unique his 2021 season was. He did fall off a bit toward the end of the season at the plate, and if the Angels manage him a little more carefully going forward, that might be enough to open the door for someone else.
That someone else could certainly be Guerrero, whose 2021 numbers (1.002 OPS) were good enough to get him AL MVP honors in many seasons. The sustainability of those numbers, or at least most of them, is made more likely by the fact that they were undergirded by real improvements in approach and plate discipline, the kind of things that are usually sticky. As a reality check, you also think back to the heights of Bryce Harper’s age-22 season (1.109 OPS) and what came next, and you wonder if some regression is almost inevitable.
As for Trout, the only number of his that has declined is games played. Unfortunately, that’s a big one. After missing a total of 16 games from 2013 to 2016, he has missed at least 22 in each full season since. Yet he remains a player for whom a 1.000 OPS is the expectation, not the upside. Literally: His career OPS is 1.002. If he plays a full season of at least 140-145 games, he’ll be part of the MVP conversation.
Franco entered the big leagues with the burden of having been baseball’s top consensus prospect for multiple seasons. With expectations so high, a disappointing debut seemed almost like an inevitability. Indeed, other than homering in his first game, he did get off to a slow start — for all of 15 games, during which he hit .197. After that, he hit .314/.372/.500. He also put up a BABIP of .311, which is kind of low for a player with his contact and line-drive ability. In the minors, he was at .334. So his already-impressive numbers could have been even better.
Franco doesn’t turn 21 until spring training, so maybe we’re jumping the gun. We’ve never had a position player win an MVP award in his age-21 season. Still, Franco is someone who leaped from top prospect status to putting up a consecutive-game on-base streak in the majors that had him listed alongside Mickey Mantle on a daily basis. Special players do special things.
My pick: Trout. This seems like less of an obvious pick than years past, because the mounting injury problems have really started to take over Trout’s narrative. How could they not after a season in which he went down with a calf strain in the middle of May, and then missed the rest of the season? Still, when he did play, he showed zero degradation of his skills. And his skills remain the best in the game.
This is either a great list or a boring list. On one hand, the familiarity it conjures is a reflection of how many generational players there are in the senior circuit right now, and how many of them are either in their primes, or on the ascent. If you wanted to add Bryce Harper to that list, I wouldn’t argue with you. The only reason Ronald Acuna Jr. isn’t there is because we don’t know for sure when he’s coming back from his ACL tear, and we need to see if he has been in any way diminished by the injury.
Among the trio listed as favorites, Betts has the most to prove, though “prove” might not be an appropriate description. It’s simply that he is coming off a down season by his immense standards. He hit .264, matching his career low. The last time Betts hit that number, the following campaign he responded by hitting .346 with an OPS over 1.000 and posted an epic 10.7 bWAR.
Soto will be on the favorites list for the foreseeable future. It’s not just that he’s consistent. It’s that the level at which he produces that consistency is MVP-caliber. His mean expectation is just that high. Coming off his age-22 season, he has a career .981 OPS and has averaged 6.1 bWAR per 162 games. He showed us in the Home Run Derby what his raw power is. Now imagine Soto fully manifesting that raw power in games for a full season, going along with his best-in-the-game combination of strike zone judgment and plate discipline, and elite bat-to-ball skills. Excuse me while I clean up the drool from my keyboard.
And Tatis could hit 50 home runs and steal 40 bases as a shortstop. It’s an awfully exciting time in the National League.
Sleeper:Trea Turner. OK, Turner is a star player and not really the platonic ideal of a sleeper candidate, but I want to throw some attention his way. His power breakout in 2021 is a major development for a player who seems to have established himself as a .330-type hitter during this phase of his career and has some of baseball’s best speed skills. If he ends up moving back to shortstop full time to replace Corey Seager, he’ll have plenty of positional value as well. The competition in the NL is so fierce with elite talents that it is hard to imagine a real sleeper breaking through, so Turner is the best I can come up with.
My pick: Tatis. I see the Padres as having a big bounce-back year under Bob Melvin, not just because of the manager, but because of better injury luck. Tatis is going to produce, but he should put up his numbers in a more high-stakes context next year amid a three-team scrum with the Giants and Dodgers in the NL West. Soto is capable of putting up the kind of monster numbers to overcome that, but he will be handicapped to an extent by the fact that the Nationals aren’t likely to be very good.
ARLINGTON, Texas — Two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom already has thrown off the mound this offseason and said everything felt normal after missing most of his first two seasons with the Texas Rangers because of elbow surgery.
The three starts deGrom got to make in September were significant for him.
“That way I could treat it like a normal offseason and not feel like I was in rehab mode the whole time,” he said Saturday during the team’s annual Fan Fest. “So that’s what this offseason has been, you know, normal throwing. Been off the mound already and everything feels good.”
The right-hander said he would usually wait until Feb. 1 before throwing, but he started earlier this week so he could ramp up a bit slower going into spring training.
DeGrom, 36, has started only nine games for the Rangers since signing a $185 million, five-year contract in free agency two winters ago. They won all six starts he made before the end of April during his 2023 debut with the team before the surgery. After rehabbing most of last year, he was 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 14 strikeouts over 10⅔ innings in those three September starts.
“One of the things I’m most excited about is a healthy season from Jacob, and for our fans to see what that looks like, and how good he is,” Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young said. “It’s just electric, and coming to the ballpark every day that he’s pitching, knowing that we’ve got a great chance to win the game, it’s an exciting feeling. Our fans truly haven’t experienced that over the course of a season. We’re excited and hopeful that this is the year they get to see that.”
Since his back-to-back Cy Young Awards with the New York Mets in 2018 and 2019, deGrom hasn’t made more than 15 starts in a season. He started 12 times during the COVID-19-shortened 60-game season in 2020.
DeGrom had a career-low 1.08 ERA over 92 innings in 2021 before missing the final three months with right forearm tightness and a sprained elbow, then was shut down late during spring training in 2022 because of a stress reaction in his right scapula. He went 5-4 with a 3.08 ERA in 11 starts over the last two months of that season before becoming a free agent.
His fastball touched 98 mph in the last of his three starts last season, when he pitched four innings of one-run ball against the Los Angeles Angels.
“In those games, you know, it’s still a thought in the back of your mind, you just came back from a major surgery and you probably don’t get another one at my age,” he said. “So it was, hey, is everything good? And then like I said, was able to check those boxes off in this offseason, treat it normal.”
Now deGrom feels like he can start pitching again without worrying about being injured.
“Just throw the ball to the target and not think about anything,” he said. “So, yeah, I think I can get back to where I was.”
More than a week after its season ended in the College Football Playoff, Texas has agreed to a new contract with coach Steve Sarkisian, a source told ESPN’s Pete Thamel on Saturday, confirming a report. The sides came to an agreement Friday night in a deal that includes an extension.
A source told ESPN that it’s a seven-year contract for Sarkisian, 50, that adds a year to his deal and makes him one of the highest-paid coaches in college football.
News of the agreement was first reported by The Action Network, which noted that the deal came after Sarkisian declined interviews with two NFL franchises for coaching positions.
The Longhorns, in their first season in the SEC, advanced to the title game and won two CFP playoff games against Clemson and Arizona State before being eliminated by Ohio State on Jan. 10 in the Cotton Bowl.
Texas played Ohio State tight before a late fumble return stretched the Buckeyes’ lead to 14 points. Sarkisian said being the last remaining SEC team in the playoff in their first year in the league is something the Longhorns take pride in.
“I really believe this is a premier football conference in America because of the week-in, week-out task that it requires physically and mentally,” Sarkisian said. “I know unfortunately for Georgia, they lost their starting quarterback in the SEC championship game, and I’m sure other teams in our conference had to endure things that can take their toll on your team, and that’s no excuse. At the end of the day, we have to find a way to navigate our ways through it, but to be here on this stage to be back in the final four wearing that SEC patch on our jersey, we’re going to do our best to represent it because this is a heck of a conference.”
Sarkisian arrived at Texas in 2021 after serving as Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator at Alabama in his previous stop. As head coach previously at Washington and USC, combined with his run at Texas, he is 84-52 overall. With the Longhorns, he is 38-17 and won the Big 12 title last season.
Texas will open next season with a rematch against Ohio State on Aug. 30 in Columbus, Ohio. In that game vs. the Buckeyes, the likely starter under center for Sarkisian will be Arch Manning, who backed up Quinn Ewers for two seasons and will soon get his chance to headline what will be one of the most anticipated quarterback situations in recent memory. The nephew of Peyton and Eli Manning and grandson of Archie Manning came to Texas as ESPN’s No. 5 recruit in the 2023 class.
Arch Manning saw more playing time this season as Ewers dealt with injury, and he completed 61 of 90 passes for 939 yards and nine touchdowns. He also showcased big-play ability as a runner, breaking off a 67-yard scamper against UTSA and averaging 4.2 yards per carry.
ATLANTA — Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua said the independent Irish are comfortable continuing to give up access to a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff — something currently granted to only the four highest-ranked conference champions — as long as the fate of conference championship games remains the same.
“We’re comfortable that if conference championship games continue as they’re currently configured, part of the deal we made is that we wouldn’t get a bye, and that’s understandable,” Bevacqua said Saturday, speaking to a small group of reporters at the national championship game media availability at the Georgia World Congress Center. “And quite frankly, I wouldn’t trade that [first-round] Indiana game at Notre Dame Stadium for anything in the world, but you also have to be smart and strategic, and your odds of making a national championship game are increased if you get to play one less game.
“So I think a lot is going to depend on the fate of the conference championship games,” he said. “Should they go away? And that’s obviously not my decision. Should they be altered in some sort of material way where it’s not the top two teams playing for a championship, but something else? Then I think we absolutely have to re-look at Notre Dame’s ability to get a bye if we end up being one of the top four teams.”
Bevacqua’s comments come as he and the FBS commissioners prepare to meet Sunday to begin their review of the inaugural 12-team field, which will produce a national champion on Monday with the winner of Ohio State vs. Notre Dame.
Bevacqua is part of the CFP’s management committee, which is also comprised of the 10 FBS commissioners tasked with determining the format and rules of the playoff to eventually send to the 11 presidents and chancellors on the CFP board for their approval. The commissioners and Bevacqua will have a 90-minute business meeting to start to discuss possible changes for the 2025 season, which would require unanimity, leaving many CFP sources skeptical that next season will look much different.
Bevacqua said he thinks “there’s a chance” the group could agree on a change to the seeding, but one option that has been floated by sources with knowledge of the discussions is having the committee’s top four teams earn the top four seeds — which opens the door for Notre Dame to earn a first-round bye without playing in a conference championship game.
“I think everybody wants what’s best for the overall system,” he said. “It was interesting, when you think about those four teams that got a bye, they didn’t advance. Now I don’t think that has anything to do with the fact that they got a bye, I think that was mostly competition and happenstance. But I think there’ll be a good, honest conversation that will start tomorrow. Are there any changes that we ought to make from this year to next year and make something that’s worked really well work even better? Will there be changes? I’m just one person. I’m not sure.”
CFP executive director Rich Clark, who also spoke to a small group of reporters at the media day event, said some changes for 2025 would require “more lead time than a few months to implement,” so no major structural changes like the size of the bracket are expected for 2025.
Clark said the commissioners will talk about every aspect from “cradle to the grave,” including seeding and re-seeding possibilities.”
Clark said whatever changes are made for 2026 and beyond — the start of a new, six-year contract with ESPN — need to be determined by the end of the calendar year. That could include increasing the bracket size, possibly to 14 or 16 teams.
“We’re trying to beat that timeline,” Clark said. “We don’t want to obviously wait until the limits of it. So we want to move smartly on these things, but we don’t want to make bad decisions, either.”
