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The entire landscape of Major League Baseball is virtually guaranteed to change from one season to the next. The annual awards that were handed out over the course of this week are yet another example of that.

Just to pick one race, let’s go with the AL MVP competition. Just before the season, SportsBetting.com ranked the most likely candidates as Mike Trout of the Angels and Luis Robert of the White Sox. Based on what we saw in 2020 and, for Trout, over a multiyear period, the status of favorite for both made sense. Indeed, both played like MVPs while they were on the field, but injuries kept both players off the field so often that they were never factors in the race.

Meanwhile, eventual landslide AL winner Shohei Ohtani was tied for third in the futures market with the Yankees’ Aaron Judge. But the AL finalists in addition to Ohtani were further down the list, with Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. coming in tied for eighth (at 20-1) and Blue Jays teammate Marcus Semien off the board entirely, so somewhere south of 100-1.

That’s just one award, but that dynamic repeats for all of them, no matter where you’re getting your odds. The reason is simple: Predicting the future is hard. It’s hard in life. Hard in sports. Hard when it comes to teams. It’s especially hard when it comes to players.

Let’s do it anyway. Here’s a very early stab at the 2022 MLB awards races. How early? So early, that you might even call it way too early.

AL Rookie of the Year

My favorites: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals; Adley Rutschman, Orioles; Shane Baz, Rays

Witt and Rutschman are two of the consensus top prospects in the game. Both are on a trajectory for a 2022 debut after they played extremely well when they reached Triple-A last season. We don’t know how the current CBA negotiations are going to affect MLB service time as it relates to arbitration eligibility and free agency, so we don’t know if the Royals and Orioles are going to see any benefit in delaying the debuts of their top prospects.

Baz doesn’t carry that caveat because he debuted for the Rays in 2021, and he was dominant over his first three big league outings. He even earned a Game 2 start for Tampa Bay in its division series against the Red Sox. He figures to be a rotation fixture for the Rays going forward, and the Rookie of the Year formula is always an uncertain combination of opportunity and performance.

Early indications are that Witt seems like a no-brainer to break camp with the Royals next spring. There’s simply nothing left for him to prove in the minors, and the Royals are trying to win, so if Witt is part of their best configuration, they’ll want him out there as often as possible. Rutschman’s ETA is a little more unclear than that, and the Orioles are not yet pushing toward contention. It would be great to see a season-long battle between Witt and Rutschman, because it could be a memorable one.

We can’t forget about Seattle OF Julio Rodriguez, who just might be the best prospect of them all. He hit .347 with patience, power and speed across two levels for Mariners affiliates in 2021. He also starred for the Dominican Republic during the Tokyo Olympics. Still, Rodriguez doesn’t turn 21 until Dec. 29, and right now has reached only Double-A, where he played 46 games this past season. The Mariners will try to contend in 2022, but have decent outfield depth.

Rodriguez might well force his way onto Seattle’s opening day roster, but if not, then he’d start behind the favorites in what is shaping up as a tremendous AL rookie class. How tremendous? Among other top prospects who could play significant roles next season whom we haven’t even mentioned are Baltimore righty Grayson Rodriguez, Detroit hitting prospects Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, and Kansas City catcher/slugger MJ Melendez.

Sleeper: Gabriel Moreno, Blue Jays

Moreno has rocketed up the prospect rankings by hitting everywhere he’s gone. Baseball America ranked Moreno as Toronto’s No. 8 prospect before last season and as the Jays’ second-best catching prospect behind Alejandro Kirk. By BA’s midseason rankings, Moreno held the No. 1 overall spot for the Jays. That’ll happen when you hit .367, get a smattering of Triple-A playing time at age 21 and keep on mashing during the Arizona Fall League. He lost development time to a thumb injury in 2021, and the Jays have Danny Jansen and Kirk as a nice combo behind the plate. Nevertheless, Moreno’s trajectory makes him a player to watch.

My pick: Witt. He’s the full package and should get a full season to show it.

NL Rookie of the Year

My favorites: Hunter Greene, Reds; Joey Bart, Giants; Brennen Davis, Cubs

It’s much harder to identify classic Rookie of the Year candidates on the NL side, but that’s not to say front-runners won’t emerge. We’ve shied away from listing some likely 2022 rookies as favorites here because of injuries (Padres IF C.J. Abrams) or a lack of consistency (Cardinals IF Nolan Gorman and SP Matthew Liberatore). Any of those players could show up in spring training and become what Jonathan India was for the 2021 Reds.

Bart seems to have the inside edge on succeeding Buster Posey as the Giants’ everyday catcher. He maintains his rookie status despite having 35 big league games under his belt. Posey’s retirement opens up the door of opportunity for him.

Greene is more of a question mark in terms of spending most of next season at the big league level, even though the Reds appear to be in veteran-shedding mode. After missing all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, Greene spent 2020 at Cincinnati’s alternate training site, so 2021 was his first game action since 2018. The stuff was still there — Greene will be a darling of anyone dazzled by Statcast readings — but his results tailed off after he ascended to Triple-A. Throwing his name into this mix is a testament to his raw stuff.

Davis is a fast riser in the Cubs’ system after adding more power to his arsenal. The rebuilding Cubs might have everyday at-bats available for a young player of his ilk, though it seems likely he’ll begin 2022 in Triple-A.

Sleeper: Sixto Sanchez, Marlins

Sanchez could have plenty of company in the Marlins’ 2022 rookie class, joining fellow hurlers Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera, and possibly slugging outfielder JJ Bleday. Sanchez is coming off surgery to repair a small tear in his shoulder, and while current reports are that he’ll be good to go in 2022, we have to see that happen before we can truly believe it — any kind of shoulder issue has to be handled delicately. Still, if Sanchez is a full go, we’ve already seen his stuff play in the majors, with an 80-grade fastball (per Baseball America) that earned him two postseason starts in 2020.

Other sleeper candidates include a pair of Cincinnati prospects — SS Jose Barrero and SP Nick Lodolo — as well as suddenly overlooked Braves CF Cristian Pache. Phillies SS Bryson Stott has gotten a lot of recent attention and the Phils do need a long-term shortstop solution.

My pick: Bart. He might not have the most upside of the NL rookie class, but he should be a steady and frequent contributor in a key role for a contending team.

AL Cy Young

My favorites: Lucas Giolito, White Sox; Jose Berrios, Blue Jays; Gerrit Cole, Yankees

This race looks like it’ll be wide open, with former winners Chris Sale, Shane Bieber and Justin Verlander all in various post-injury stages, and Cole having come back to the pack a little bit after his up-and-down second half last season.

Giolito struggled with some inconsistency in 2021, but he has a history of overcoming those issues with his cerebral, self-aware approach to the game. Also, anyone who is a fixture in the White Sox’s rotation is a contender, so in a subhead to this section, you might as well list Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease and maybe even Michael Kopech. There aren’t many managers who value length from starters like Tony La Russa, and while that might not turn the heads of voters like it once did, it might hold some sway in a tight race.

With Berrios, we also have to mention teammate Robbie Ray, the 2021 AL winner who is a free agent, so it’s hard to say he’s a favorite in either league. Meanwhile, Berrios is an underrated pitcher who combines durability and consistency as well as anyone, and his peripheral numbers have ticked up to the point where it feels like he’s poised for a career season.

As for Cole, he has plenty to prove after his 2021 drop-off, but he is still, after all, Gerrit Cole.

Sleeper: Shohei Ohtani, Angels

Corbin Burnes’ Cy Young win shows that you don’t need to lead the league in innings to win the honor in today’s game. Ohtani has the potential to put up a top-five season just for his pitching alone, and as good as he was on the mound in 2021, there were still some unpolished edges to his game. More than anything, it just feels like if Ohtani sets his sights on building a case for this award and boosting the oft-criticized Angels rotation, he, perhaps more than any player in the game, can get there by sheer will.

My pick: Berrios. A (relatively) new team, a contract extension — things just seem to be coming together for Berrios as he gets into the prime of his career.

NL Cy Young

My favorites: Walker Buehler, Dodgers; Zack Wheeler, Phillies; Jacob deGrom, Mets

The 2021 season was great, as all full baseball seasons are, but it wasn’t as great as it could have been because of major injuries to some of the game’s best players. None of those injuries was as devastating as were the maladies that limited to deGrom to 92 innings. Still, since the start of the 2018 season, here are deGrom’s numbers per 162 games: 12-8, 1.94 ERA and 289 strikeouts.

There is at least some sentiment that Wheeler got jobbed in the 2021 balloting, and if he can repeat his performance in 2022, maybe he gets a closer look next time around. The key question for him is whether there will be a price to pay from his leap in innings from 71 in 2020 to 213 1/3.

I remained convinced that Buehler is going to put it all together some year, post enormous numbers and run away with a Cy Young Award. His numbers were awfully good in 2021, so if he improves on those, look out.

Sleeper: Jack Flaherty, Cardinals

We’ve seen Flaherty enjoy a prolonged stretch when he pitched at an elite level before. Last season, he wasn’t quite at that level, and injuries had something to do with it. He’s at the point in his career where he could become the next career-long Cardinal, or position himself for a major payday in free agency. Next season could be the one in which Flaherty establishes himself over a full season as the ace the Cardinals need.

My pick: DeGrom. There are a lot of ifs for most of the pitchers mentioned in this piece, because that’s the nature of forecasting pitching. For deGrom, there is only one if: If he makes 30 or so starts, he is the front-runner.

AL MVP

My favorites: Shohei Ohtani, Angels; Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays; Mike Trout, Angels

For Ohtani, the question has to be whether some minor fatigue develops with the fascination of just how marvelously unique his 2021 season was. He did fall off a bit toward the end of the season at the plate, and if the Angels manage him a little more carefully going forward, that might be enough to open the door for someone else.

That someone else could certainly be Guerrero, whose 2021 numbers (1.002 OPS) were good enough to get him AL MVP honors in many seasons. The sustainability of those numbers, or at least most of them, is made more likely by the fact that they were undergirded by real improvements in approach and plate discipline, the kind of things that are usually sticky. As a reality check, you also think back to the heights of Bryce Harper’s age-22 season (1.109 OPS) and what came next, and you wonder if some regression is almost inevitable.

As for Trout, the only number of his that has declined is games played. Unfortunately, that’s a big one. After missing a total of 16 games from 2013 to 2016, he has missed at least 22 in each full season since. Yet he remains a player for whom a 1.000 OPS is the expectation, not the upside. Literally: His career OPS is 1.002. If he plays a full season of at least 140-145 games, he’ll be part of the MVP conversation.

Sleeper: Wander Franco, Rays

Franco entered the big leagues with the burden of having been baseball’s top consensus prospect for multiple seasons. With expectations so high, a disappointing debut seemed almost like an inevitability. Indeed, other than homering in his first game, he did get off to a slow start — for all of 15 games, during which he hit .197. After that, he hit .314/.372/.500. He also put up a BABIP of .311, which is kind of low for a player with his contact and line-drive ability. In the minors, he was at .334. So his already-impressive numbers could have been even better.

Franco doesn’t turn 21 until spring training, so maybe we’re jumping the gun. We’ve never had a position player win an MVP award in his age-21 season. Still, Franco is someone who leaped from top prospect status to putting up a consecutive-game on-base streak in the majors that had him listed alongside Mickey Mantle on a daily basis. Special players do special things.

My pick: Trout. This seems like less of an obvious pick than years past, because the mounting injury problems have really started to take over Trout’s narrative. How could they not after a season in which he went down with a calf strain in the middle of May, and then missed the rest of the season? Still, when he did play, he showed zero degradation of his skills. And his skills remain the best in the game.

NL MVP

My favorites: Juan Soto, Nationals; Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres; Mookie Betts, Dodgers

This is either a great list or a boring list. On one hand, the familiarity it conjures is a reflection of how many generational players there are in the senior circuit right now, and how many of them are either in their primes, or on the ascent. If you wanted to add Bryce Harper to that list, I wouldn’t argue with you. The only reason Ronald Acuna Jr. isn’t there is because we don’t know for sure when he’s coming back from his ACL tear, and we need to see if he has been in any way diminished by the injury.

Among the trio listed as favorites, Betts has the most to prove, though “prove” might not be an appropriate description. It’s simply that he is coming off a down season by his immense standards. He hit .264, matching his career low. The last time Betts hit that number, the following campaign he responded by hitting .346 with an OPS over 1.000 and posted an epic 10.7 bWAR.

Soto will be on the favorites list for the foreseeable future. It’s not just that he’s consistent. It’s that the level at which he produces that consistency is MVP-caliber. His mean expectation is just that high. Coming off his age-22 season, he has a career .981 OPS and has averaged 6.1 bWAR per 162 games. He showed us in the Home Run Derby what his raw power is. Now imagine Soto fully manifesting that raw power in games for a full season, going along with his best-in-the-game combination of strike zone judgment and plate discipline, and elite bat-to-ball skills. Excuse me while I clean up the drool from my keyboard.

And Tatis could hit 50 home runs and steal 40 bases as a shortstop. It’s an awfully exciting time in the National League.

Sleeper: Trea Turner. OK, Turner is a star player and not really the platonic ideal of a sleeper candidate, but I want to throw some attention his way. His power breakout in 2021 is a major development for a player who seems to have established himself as a .330-type hitter during this phase of his career and has some of baseball’s best speed skills. If he ends up moving back to shortstop full time to replace Corey Seager, he’ll have plenty of positional value as well. The competition in the NL is so fierce with elite talents that it is hard to imagine a real sleeper breaking through, so Turner is the best I can come up with.

My pick: Tatis. I see the Padres as having a big bounce-back year under Bob Melvin, not just because of the manager, but because of better injury luck. Tatis is going to produce, but he should put up his numbers in a more high-stakes context next year amid a three-team scrum with the Giants and Dodgers in the NL West. Soto is capable of putting up the kind of monster numbers to overcome that, but he will be handicapped to an extent by the fact that the Nationals aren’t likely to be very good.

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Our trade proposals that would rock MLB’s winter meetings

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Our trade proposals that would rock MLB's winter meetings

Baseball’s winter meetings are just around the corner, and we’re ready for some blockbuster deals.

We’ve already seen some intriguing trades this offseason with the New York Mets acquiring Marcus Semien from the Texas Rangers for Brandon Nimmo and the Boston Red Sox adding Sonny Gray to their pitching staff — but there are even bigger stars who could move in the weeks ahead.

With that in mind, we asked our MLB insiders to give us their preferred destination for some of the biggest names in our ranking of the top 25 MLB offseason trade candidates.

Where did we send All-Stars Ketel Marte and Byron Buxton? Which Red Sox outfielder is on the move in our deals? And which contenders get starting pitching help? Let’s find out.


The Arizona Diamondbacks should trade Ketel Marte to the …

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners plucked from the D-backs to jolt their offense just five months ago, acquiring corner infielders Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor. They should do so again, this time for Marte, the star second baseman who can be had for the right return. The Mariners have a need for another bat, and Marte would represent a massive upgrade over merely re-signing Suarez or Jorge Polanco.

Marte would slide in perfectly ahead of fellow All-Stars Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh, allowing Randy Arozarena to join Naylor in the middle of the lineup and giving Seattle arguably the best offense in the American League — to pair with what is likely the best pitching staff.

Coming off a gut-wrenching loss in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, it’s the perfect move to push the M’s toward the first World Series berth in franchise history. And whether it’s Cole Young, Michael Arroyo or Felnin Celesten, the Mariners might have enough young, promising middle infielders to satisfy the D-backs’ likely desire for a Marte replacement without parting with Colt Emerson. — Alden Gonzalez

Boston Red Sox for Jarren Duran and Kyson Witherspoon

Roman Anthony‘s 2025 breakout rendered Duran expendable in an outfield already staffed by Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, both of whom offer more remaining team control. And with presumed second-baseman-of-the-future Kristian Campbell struggling as a rookie (86 OPS+, -1.0 WAR), the door swung open for a move of this magnitude.

Duran’s proclivity for doubles and triples will play beautifully in Arizona (just ask Corbin Carroll), and Witherspoon, the No. 15 pick in the 2025 MLB draft, instantly becomes the club’s best pitching prospect. — Paul Hembekides


The Red Sox should trade Duran to the Philadelphia Phillies for a package including Alec Bohm

These lightning-rod players certainly are not coming off their best seasons and perhaps each needs the proverbial change of scenery. The Red Sox may need someone to play third base, and Bohm, while no match for Alex Bregman, is a capable hitter and defender. The Phillies could then get a more consistent third baseman who enjoys playing in Philadelphia. Duran would fill Philadelphia’s center-field need, and it would create some opportunity in a crowded Boston outfield. See, trades can work out for both teams! — Eric Karabell


The Cleveland Guardians should trade Steven Kwan to the Mariners

I love this idea so much. Kwan would return to the West Coast, about a four-hour drive from Corvallis, where he starred for Oregon State. He would give the Mariners a needed upgrade at a corner outfield spot, teaming with Julio Rodriguez to improve Seattle’s outfield defense. Most importantly, he could slide into the leadoff spot, offering contact and OBP as a poor man’s Ichiro, hitting in front of Cal Raleigh, Rodriguez and his old Cleveland teammate, Josh Naylor. Let’s get this done. — Bradford Doolittle


The Chicago White Sox should trade Luis Robert to the …

Kansas City Royals

Rumor mill whispering has connected the Royals with Boston’s Jarren Duran for the hefty price of Cole Ragans, a swap I can’t abide. The Royals have starting pitching depth, but they don’t have ace depth and Ragans must stay. Duran isn’t an ideal defensive fit for Kauffman Stadium if you view him as a center fielder, and the Royals need to upgrade at that spot badly.

Enter Robert, whose work on strike zone judgment seemed to be paying off in the latter stages of last season. He’s younger than Duran and has more power upside without sacrificing speed and defense. The Royals’ new hitting staff is hyper-focused on improving pitch recognition, and I’d love for them to be new voices in Robert’s ear. The Royals could keep Ragans and modulate their rotation/prospect return based on Chicago’s willingness to pay down some of Robert’s $20 million for next season. Alas, this would be more palatable from a payroll perspective if the Royals had not already committed $8 million to run it back with Jonathan India. — Doolittle

Philadelphia Phillies

It’s time. Time for Robert to find a new home and time for the Phillies to mix up the vibe a little. It’s possible that last season proved to be Robert’s current floor — good defense and 33 stolen bases will help teams win games. But it’s also just as possible the ceiling is still within reach after years of underachieving. First off, getting away from the Sox did wonders for Gavin Sheets and Andrew Vaughn. The same could be true of Robert if he moves on, especially since he’s finally cutting his chase rate down.

Now put him in a good lineup with even better pitches to see — and perhaps a little more pressure to perform — and the Philles could just get the best version of him. He has hit 28 homers in a season. He hit .338 in another (partial year). Put it all together and he might turn into a steal. — Jesse Rogers


The Minnesota Twins should trade …

Byron Buxton to the Los Angeles Dodgers

This falls into the “Why? Because they can, that’s why” category. Enough is never enough for the Dodgers, so this offseason’s installment of making sure they have too much is the acquisition of the best available player at the position they may actually believe they need to upgrade. Move Andy Pages to left, slot Buxton into the top half of the lineup and go for three in a row. — Tim Keown

Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers to the New York Yankees

Ryan was a popular name at the trade deadline, and he’s popular again coming off an All-Star season with a rebuilding team and two years of team control remaining. The Yankees don’t need another front-line starter, but Ryan would give them some rotation stability early in the season with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon (and Clarke Schmidt) on the injured list, and he would supply insurance should Cole or Rodón return later than usual or struggle upon return. And as these front offices like to say: You can never have enough starting pitching.

Jeffers would quench the Yankees’ need for a right-handed-hitting catcher after carrying three left-handed-hitting catchers for most of the 2025 season. He would platoon with Austin Wells and allow the Yankees to move Ben Rice, also a left-handed hitter, to first base full time. — Jorge Castillo


The Miami Marlins should trade Edward Cabrera to the New York Yankees for Jasson Dominguez If the Yankees are truly focused on keeping their payroll in check, they’ll need to be creative in how they address their roster shortcomings. Presuming that the team re-signs Cody Bellinger, the Yankees will already have spent a majority of their available free agent budget, and have rendered Dominguez excess with top prospect Spencer Jones also an in-season debut candidate. Dominguez is the kind of high-ceiling youngster the Marlins should be targeting.

Cabrera is a talented, albeit injury-prone, starter who can provide critical rotation depth while the team waits for the healthy returns of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt. Dominguez’s two additional years of team control might make this a slight overpay for the Yankees, but Cabrera’s projected $3.7 million salary via arbitration could make him an ideal, budget-conscious acquisition. — Tristan Cockcroft


The Miami Marlins should trade Sandy Alcantara to the Athletics

Alcantara’s return from Tommy John surgery was a disaster in the first half of the season, as he entered the All-Star break with an ERA over 7.00. That made him untradeable; it made no sense for the Marlins to deal him at the trade deadline with his value at a low point. Alcantara found his groove over his final 12 starts, however, posting a 3.13 ERA with 69 strikeouts versus 18 walks over 77 innings. That is a pitcher you can trade.

The A’s finished 26th in rotation ERA in 2025. The rotation did struggle at home with a 5.52 ERA in Sacramento, so that led to inflated ERAs, but their only two returning starters with more than 100 innings are Jeffrey Springs (4.11 ERA) and Luis Severino (4.54 ERA). It will be difficult for the A’s to lure a decent free agent starter to Sacramento — they had to overpay to sign Severino — so a trade makes sense. Alcantara is signed to a reasonable $17.3 million for 2026 with a $21 million club option for 2027, which even the A’s can afford.

With the Nick Kurtz-led offense, the A’s will score runs. If they can build out the rotation and bullpen, they have the look of 2026’s sleeper playoff team. Their farm system is improved and they have low-salaried pitching depth with guys like Mason Barnett and Jack Perkins to throw back Miami’s way. — David Schoenfield


The Washington Nationals should trade MacKenzie Gore to the Baltimore Orioles

Gore hasn’t quite made the jump to front-line starter. But he has some qualities in common with higher slot lefties who are front-line types, like Blake Snell and Max Fried, so there could be another gear to be teased out. He also comes with two years of control and his arbitration number this year should land around $5 million.

In return, the Orioles can send a prospect package featuring OFs Slater de Brun and Austin Overn and RHPs Esteban Mejia and J.T. Quinn to the Nationals. Baltimore doesn’t have to include C Samuel Basallo and can probably hang onto OF Dylan Beavers, as well. I have the Nats opting for a larger package of players that includes what I think will be the sorts of prospects we’ll see new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni target. It helps new execs coming from the draft side of evaluation to target recent draftees, with de Brun and Quinn from the 2025 draft and Overn from the 2024 draft. — Kiley McDaniel


The Pittsburgh Pirates should trade Mitch Keller to the San Francisco Giants

The Giants churned through 15 starting pitchers in 2025 and return only three who made more than 10 starts (Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and Landen Roupp), leaving two slots to fill aside from the depth that is required in this era. Hayden Birdsong and Carson Whisenhunt are the top internal candidates, but adding a veteran starter for stability looks like an offseason necessity.

Keller is signed for three more years at an AAV of about $18.5 million. His biggest strength has been durability and consistency, making at least 29 starts four seasons in a row and averaging 183 innings and 2.1 WAR the past three seasons. His strikeout rate has declined from 25.5% to 20.0% since 2023, so that’s a minor cause for concern, but moving to the Giants, with better defense behind him and a stellar catcher in Patrick Bailey should help lower his batting average allowed.

Do the Pirates have enough rotation depth to trade Keller? Probably not, but they do have Paul Skenes, Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft, Johan Oviedo and Bubba Chandler, plus Jared Jones returning from injury, so there at least is the makings of an exciting young rotation even without Keller. They need power, however, so the ask from the Giants would be their top prospect, first baseman Bryce Eldridge.

Too steep for the Giants? Perhaps. Eldridge has 35-homer potential and has produced while being very young for his levels, reaching Triple-A in 2025 at just 20 years old. He does have some holes in his game, with a 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, he struggled against breaking balls from left-handers, he has below-average speed and his defense at first base is fringy, so he might be a DH with Rafael Devers playing first. The power is real — enough for the Pirates to gamble on and also real enough that he’ll be difficult to pry away from the Giants. — Schoenfield

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A final farewell to Lane Kiffin and the rest of the Bottom 10

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A final farewell to Lane Kiffin and the rest of the Bottom 10

Inspirational thought of the week:

Hang on to your hopes, my friend
That’s an easy thing to say
But if your hopes should pass away
Simply pretend that you can build them again

Look around
The grass is high
The fields are ripe
It’s the springtime of my life

Seasons change with the scenery
Weavin’ time in a tapestry
Won’t you stop and remember me?

Look around
Leaves are brown
And the sky is a hazy shade of winter

— “Hazy Shade of Winter” by Simon & Garfunkel (or The Bangles, depending on how old you are)

Here at Bottom 10 Headquarters, located behind the bank of telephones used to raise money for the “Free Marty Smith From Oxford” fund, we once again look at the calendar and realize that it is conference championship weekend, which means it’s time for the Bottom 10 to make like Lane Kiffin and run for the exit amid a shower of boos and middle fingers.

Due to an unprecedented coaching carousel that was so bonkers we’ve renamed it the Coaching Tilt-A-Whirl, the candidates list for this year’s Bottom 10 Selection Committee grew faster than Brian Kelly’s lawyers’ billable hours invoice. The final roster: me, my dad, Captain Morgan (aka my stepdad), Mike Gundy, current Northwest Oklahoma defensive coordinator Jerry Glanville and former Texas State Armadillos head coach Ed “Straight Arrow” Gennero. As our vote began, we were joined by Sam Pittman, who pulled up to our meeting spot, a truck stop behind the Gaylord Texan where the fancy-schmancy CFP committee was gathered, behind the wheel of a shoebox Winnebago blasting Skynyrd and towing a pontoon boat upon which the name “S.S. YESSIR” was airbrushed.

Once again, we leaned on our Bottom 10 FPI formula. No, not the ESPN Football Power Index, but rather the Faux Pas Index. Because everyone loves math.

Teams receive one point for each win, minus one point for each loss, minus one point for each loss of their longest losing streak of the year, plus a minus-10 bonus if that longest losing streak is currently active. We also subtract the number of points they have surrendered on the season from the number of points they scored, subtract or add points based on their season turnover margin and subtract their weakness of schedule (WoS) ranking. If a team fired its head coach, that earns a 50-point subtraction, aka the Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus.

Divide all of that by the number of games played, and there’s your Bottom 10 FPI score. Because it’s hard numbers, the results are indisputable. And by hard numbers we mean that we made the formula so badly complicated that it’s too hard to dispute because it’s not worth wasting the effort to do so.

With apologies to Tennessee wide receiver Deon Hardin, Mizzou running back Ahmad Hardy, Rice running back D’Andre Hardeman Jr. and Steve Harvey, here’s the final 2025 Bottom 10 rankings.

Wins: +0
Losses: -12
Longest losing streak: -12 (current -10)
Point differential: -330 (133 for, 463 against)
Turnover margin: -7
WoS: -91
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N/A
Total: -450
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -37.5

The Minuetmen had their wet hay in the barn a full week early, having played their final game of the season on the Tuesday afternoon prior to Thanksgiving. Once they got that hay into the barn, they remembered that the Salem witch trials took place in Massachusetts and they immediately burned that barn down in an effort to exorcise their Bottom 10 demons.


Wins: +2
Losses: -10
Longest losing streak: -8
Point differential: -241 (213 for, 454 against)
Turnover margin: +2
WoS: -104
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N/A
Total: -359
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -29.9

The Bearkats kompiled a two-win kampaign, but still katapulted kompletely over kontenders who had only one win. How did they akkomplish that? Bekause of a krappy strength of skedule and a defense too frekwently skored upon.


Wins: +1
Losses: -11
Longest losing streak: -11 (current -10)
Point differential: -230 (170 for, 400 against)
Turnover margin: -5
WoS: -30
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: -50
Total: -346
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -28.8

Many people in the greater Stillwater area had told me that I didn’t have the Kowboys, er, sorry, Cowboys ranked low enough. When we did the FPI math, it backed up those complainers with the same amount of force that it backed down their team.


Wins: +1
Losses: -11
Longest losing streak: -9 (current -10)
Point differential: -217 (237 for, 454 against)
Turnover margin: -11
WoS: -66
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N/A
Total: -323
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -26.9

Just as the arithmetic hurt OSU, it helped GSU, which jumped/fell from No. 2 to No. 4. That might not seem like much, but for a team that last won a game more than 80 days ago, you’ll take whatever good news you can get.


5. The Lane Train

Marty said if I didn’t have Kiffin in the Coveted Fifth Spot again this week he would beat me over the head with the turkey leg he wasn’t able to eat with his family on Thanksgiving because he had to go to Oxford and hold a microphone instead.


Wins: +2
Losses: -10
Longest losing streak: -6 (current -10)
Point differential: -148 (222 for, 370 against)
Turnover margin: -4
WoS: -90
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: -50
Total: -316
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -26.3

Easily, the most vocal “How can we not be ranked?!” #Bottom10Lobbying crowd of 2025 was Rams Nation. And when we did the math, they were proved right as Colorado State leapt like a ram from a rock formation off the Waiting List into the canyon of nearly the top/bottom five. Now they have hired professional Bottom 10 rehabilitation specialist Jim Mora, who totally ruined what used to be the Bottom 10’s version of Chiefs vs. Eagles, UMess vs. U-Can’t, by inexplicably turning the Huskies into winners.


Wins: +1
Losses: -11
Longest losing streak: -9 (current -10)
Point differential: -264 (172 for, 436 against)
Turnover margin: -8
WoS: -70
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N/A
Total: -271
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -22.5833333

Niners officials reached out to the Bottom 10 committee to see if perhaps they might receive bonus cool points for the fact that their record was 1-9 when Georgia paid them $1.9 million to play “between the hedges.” We told them no, but only after reaching out to UNCC math professors, who assured us that the laws of natural numerical law would not allow us to add something called “cool points” to something called a “Faux Pas Index.” Speaking of math, Charlotte also is now part of a Bottom 10 FPI first, a numerical tie! With whom … ?


Wins: +2
Losses: -10
Longest losing streak: -7
Point differential: -135 (218 for, 353 against)
Turnover margin: -11
WoS: -60
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: -50
Total: -271
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -22.5833333

It should be no surprise that the Beavers would be in some weird spot here after spending their entire season stuck in a bizarro Bottom 10 vortex. They won the tiebreaker with Charlotte via one common opponent, Appalachian State. The Niners lost at home to the Mountaineers 34-11, while the Beavs lost in Boone by only four points. One of only a pair of members of the 2Pac conference, Oregon State had already beaten its only league colleague, Warshington State, in Week 10, but then immediately lost to Sam Houston. Then all the Beavers had to do was beat Wazzu again to depart these rankings for good, but they lost 32-8. Now they will do like all beavers and spend the winter not hibernating, but packed into a mud lodge with other beavers, shivering and seeing who has to swim out under the ice to get food. In related news, that’s also how we on the Bottom 10 Selection Committee spent this week. We sent Mike Gundy out to get the food because his haircut totally looks like a beaver.


Wins: +2
Losses: -10
Longest losing streak: -5 (current -10)
Point differential: -85 (280 for, 365 against)
Turnover margin: -12
WoS: -109
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N/A
Total: -229
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -19.1

Representatives of the Minors crashed our committee meeting to remind us that while they understood they would likely have to be ranked, no matter what the math said, they had to be ranked above/below Sam Houston because they beat the Bearkats head-to-head. But we didn’t hear any of that because when we say they crashed our meeting, they literally crashed our meeting. Paydirt Pete had to use his pickax to pry the UTEP conversion van free from where it ran into the trailer carrying Pittman’s pontoon boat.


Wins: +2
Losses: -10
Longest losing streak: -10
Point differential: -88 (305 for, 393 against)
Turnover margin: -9
WoS: -54
Randy Edsall Fired Coach Bonus: N/A
Total: -169
Games played: 12
Final Bottom 10 Faux Pas Index: -14.08

The Golden Beagles were in a Bottom 10 peloton to the finish line, which was more like that scene at Oklahoma a few weeks ago when the Sooners got lost in the smoke of their stadium entrance and fell over each other, piling up like firewood for winter. In the end, Arkansaw and Pur-don’t received too big of a Power 4 WoS boost, while Muddled Tennessee and No-vada both had the audacity to win two out of their final three games, hitting the Raise Hell Praise Dale 3-victory mark and moving out of the running. We started to do the FPI math on a few other teams, but when the batteries ran out in our Texas Instruments calculator, Coach Pittman, relieved his former Hogs missed the final cut, announced, “I’ll go to the store, but it won’t be to buy batteries. It’ll be to buy beer.” Meeting adjourned.

Waiting List: Arkansaw Fightin’ Former Petrinos, No-vada, San No-sé State, Pur-don’t, Muddled Tennessee State, Northern Ill-ugh-noise, ULM (pronounced “Uhlm”), conference tiebreakers that require slide rules.

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Hamlin: Team couldn’t survive under charter deal

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Hamlin: Team couldn't survive under charter deal

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin outlined the precarious situation facing NASCAR teams, testifying Tuesday in the federal antitrust trial against the stock car series that the race team he co-owns spent more than $700,000 to the series in 2022 alone and how agreeing to its charter proposal last fall would have been like signing his own “death certificate.”

Hamlin was the first witness called when testimony began Monday in the antitrust case brought by 23XI Racing, which is owned by Hamlin and Basketball Hall of Famer Michael Jordan, and Front Row Motorsports, owned by fast-food franchiser Bob Jenkins. The two teams contend that NASCAR is a monopoly that has handcuffed teams with a no-win revenue model.

Hamlin returned to the stand for more than three hours and was asked about line items in 23XI Racing’s budget. He noted how more than $703,000 three years ago was spent on costs to NASCAR ranging from entry fees, credentials for team members to enter the track and even access to Internet signals. He also said he and Jordan spent $100 million to build 23XI and “all it takes is one sponsor to go away and all our profit is gone.”

All 15 of NASCAR’s teams had been vocal for over two years that the last charter agreement made it impossible for them to turn a profit and they demanded four changes in prolonged negotiations. When the final offer came from NASCAR and lacked most of what the teams asked for, 23XI and Front Row refused to sign and instead sued.

23XI has turned a profit in all but one of its five seasons, but its financial success is largely a product of Jordan’s star power drawing top-dollar sponsors. Plaintiffs’ attorney Jeffery Kessler told the jury Monday that a NASCAR-commissioned study found that 75% of teams lost money in 2024.

Hamlin testified that the TV deal NASCAR signed ahead of the 2025 season has not been a boon to race teams because of a shift toward streaming services and big-ticket sponsors want to be on television. He also referred to a meeting with NASCAR chairman Jim France, who indicated teams are spending too much and it should only cost $10 million per car. Hamlin testified it costs $20 million.

“We cannot cut more. Tell me how to get my investment back? He had no answer,” Hamlin said.

As for refusing to sign the charter agreements last fall, Hamlin said the last-ditch proposal from NASCAR “had eight points minimum that needed to be changed. When we pointed that out we were told ‘Negotiations are closed.'”

“I didn’t sign because I knew this was my death certificate for the future,” he said, later adding: “I have spent 20 years trying to make this sport grow as a driver and for the last five years as a team owner. 23XI is doing our part. You can’t have someone treat you this unfairly and I knew It wasn’t right. They were wrong and someone needed to be held accountable.”

Under cross-examination, Hamlin was asked why he paints a rosier picture of NASCAR on podcast appearances. He replied that he is regurgitating NASCAR talking points because any negative comments can lead to retribution.

“You can take all my things out of context and paint a picture that everything is fine,” he said. “The reality is, (being) negative affects me in (technical inspection), getting called to the hauler, NASCAR not liking what I said.”

The trial is expected to last two weeks.

NASCAR is owned and operated by the Florida-based France family, which founded the series in 1948. Kessler said over a three-year period almost $400 million was paid to the France Family Trust and a 2023 evaluation by Goldman Sachs found NASCAR to be worth $5 billion. The pretrial discovery process revealed NASCAR made more than $100 million in 2024, while Jenkins testified in a deposition he has lost $60 million over the last decade and $100 million since starting his team in 2004.

NASCAR contends it is doing nothing wrong and has not restrained trade or commerce by its teams. The series says the original charters were given for free to teams when the system was created in 2016 and the demand for them created a market of $1.5 billion in equity for chartered organizations.

Hamlin countered that 11 of the original 19 chartered organizations are out of business; all three of 23XI’s charters came from teams that ceased operations. NASCAR also said each chartered car now receives a guaranteed $12.5 million in annual revenue, up from $9 million. Hamlin testified it costs $20 million to bring a single car to the track for all 38 races and that figure does not include any overhead, operating costs or a driver’s salary.

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