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The Headquarters of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna, Austria on 17 December, 2018.
Beata Zawrzel | NurPhoto | Getty Images

LONDON — A group of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers will likely agree to continue increasing their output at a meeting on Tuesday, analysts say, as oil prices climb amid growing optimism over the fuel demand outlook.

OPEC and its non-OPEC partners, an alliance often referred to as OPEC+, will meet via videoconference to discuss the next phase of production policy.

It comes as the Middle East-dominated group, which is responsible for over one-third of global oil production, seeks to balance an expected upswing in demand with the potential for an increase in Iranian output.

OPEC+ announced massive crude production cuts in 2020 in an effort to support prices when the coronavirus pandemic coincided with a historic demand shock.

In April, the group opted to return 2.1 million barrels per day of supply back to the market over the May to July period, reflecting an optimistic outlook for improved mobility despite ongoing concerns about Covid worldwide.

OPEC+ is expected to reiterate this decision to gradually increase output during this week’s meeting.

“I think the event itself is going to be a non-event. We expect them to basically re-confirm the plan that they laid out on April 1,” Jeffrey Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Tuesday. “I think the bigger issue underlying this is: How are they going to deal with Iran?”

Iran is currently in discussion with six world powers to revive its 2015 nuclear deal. The restoration of a deal could lead to more oil on the global market in the coming months.

“It’s too early to give specific numbers around Iran … So, I think the best you can hope for in terms of how they are going to deal with Iran is the indication that they are willing to offset any increases in Iran. That could be the positive upside surprise coming out of this meeting,” Currie added.

The flag of Iran is seen in front of the building of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Headquarters ahead of a press conference by Rafael Grossi, Director General of the IAEA, about the agency’s monitoring of Iran’s nuclear energy program on May 24, 2021 in Vienna, Austria.
Michael Gruber | Getty Images News | Getty Images

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo on Monday said in a statement that he did not believe higher Iranian supply would be a cause for concern.

“We anticipate that the expected return of Iranian production and exports to the global market will occur in an orderly and transparent fashion,” Barkindo said.

International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $70.75 a barrel on Tuesday morning in London, up around 2%, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures stood at $68.11, more than 2.7% higher from Friday’s close — with no settlement price on Monday due to a U.S. public holiday.

Oil prices have climbed more than 30% since the start of the year.

Iran likely to act ‘constructively’

“I think everybody is expecting Iran to add a lot of volume. So, beyond the July increase, they aren’t likely to come out with any commitment,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday.

“We know that as demand rises, we will need more OPEC barrels, but I think Iran is going to be the big question mark for them,” Sen said.

OPEC+ initially agreed to cut oil production by a record of 9.7 million barrels per day last year as global fuel demand collapsed, before easing cuts to 7.7 million and eventually 7.2 million from January. As of July, the group’s production cuts are on track to stand at 5.8 million.

“The most consequential issue for OPEC+ over the short term relates to the potential rise of Iranian production as a result of the US and Iran returning to JCPOA compliance,” analysts at Eurasia Group said in a research note, referring to the acronym for the nuclear deal: the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Analysts at the risk consultancy said it believed progress in successive rounds of talks made a return to the deal likely in the third quarter of 2021.

“Over the medium term, OPEC+ will most likely adjust its policy to prevent the addition of Iranian barrels from derailing its market balancing strategy,” they continued. “Saudi Arabia will likely lean on Russia to better understand the scope of Iranian policy to work on adjustment plans. Iran would also probably act constructively as higher oil prices serve its own interests.”

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Exxon earnings fall on lower oil prices as OPEC+ raises production

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October 31, 2025

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Exxon earnings fall on lower oil prices as OPEC+ raises production

An Exxon Mobil gas station in Lorton, Virginia, US, on Monday, Oct. 27, 2025.

Luke Johnson | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Exxon Mobil on Friday reported third quarter earnings that fell year over year, as oil prices tumbled due in large part to OPEC+ increasing production.

Exxon’s net income fell 12% to $7.55 billion, or $1.76 per share, compared to $8.6 billion, or $1.92 per share, in the year ago period. Excluding one-time items, the oil major posted earnings per share of $1.88.

U.S. crude oil prices have fallen about 16% this year as OPEC+ is increasing production and President Donald Trump’s tariffs have the market worried about an economic slowdown.

Exxon shares were down more than 1% in premarket trading.

Here is what Exxon reported for the third quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

  • Earnings per share: $1.88 adjusted.
  • Revenue: $85.3 billion, vs. $87.7 billion expected

CEO Darren Woods said Exxon posted its highest earnings per share compared to similar quarters when oil prices were falling. Profits also took a hit due to bottom-of-cycle margins in its chemicals business.

However, production in Exxon’s lucrative offshore assets in the South American nation of Guyana hit a quarterly record of more than 700,000 barrels per day. Its assets in the Permian Basin also set a production record of nearly 1.7 million bpd.

Overall, Exxon produced 4.77 million bpd in the quarter.

Exxon’s production business recorded earnings of $5.68 billion, while its refining business posted a profit of $1.8 billion. Its chemicals product business saw earnings of $515 million.

The oil major’s capital expenditures stand at about $21 billion so far this year. It expects spending in 2025 to come in slightly below the lower end of its guidance range of $27 billion to $29 billion.

Exxon gave back $9.4 billion to shareholders in the quarter and raised its fourth-quarter dividend to $1.03 per share.

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Chevron earnings beat Wall Street estimates as oil production hits record boosted by Hess acquisition

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October 31, 2025

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Chevron earnings beat Wall Street estimates as oil production hits record boosted by Hess acquisition

Signage outside the Chevron Corp. headquarters in Houston, Texas, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2025.

Mark Felix | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Chevron on Friday reported third-quarter financial results that beat Wall Street estimates, as the company achieved record production due in part to its acquisition of Hess Corporation.

The oil major’s net income declined 21% to $3.54 billion, or $1.82 per share, compared with $4.49 billion, or $2.48 per share, in the same period last year. Its earnings decreased year over year due to falling oil prices and a $235 million loss on transaction costs associated with the Hess acquisition.

Excluding costs associated with Hess and foreign currency impacts, Chevron earned $1.85 per share, beating Wall Street estimates of $1.71 per share.

Here is what Chevron reported for the third quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

  • Earnings per share: $1.85 adjusted vs. $1.71 expected
  • Revenue: $49.73 billion vs. $49.01 billion expected

U.S. crude oil prices have fallen about 16% this year as OPEC+ increases production and President Donald Trump’s tariffs have the market worried about an economic slowdown.

Even with lower prices, Chevron pumped a record 4.1 million barrels per day, a 21% increase compared with the same period last year. Higher production came from the Hess acquisition, the Permian Basin, the Gulf of Mexico and Kazakhstan, according to the company.

Chevron’s U.S. production business posted a profit of $1.28 billion, down 34% compared with $1.95 billion in the third quarter of 2024. It pumped 2 million barrels per day, up 27% from 1.6 million bpd in year-ago period.

International production recorded earnings of $2 billion, down 24% compared with $2.64 billion in the same quarter last year. Production increased 16% to 2 million bpd compared with 1.76 million bpd in the year-ago period.

Profits increased more than 300% to $638 million in Chevron’s downstream U.S. refining business, compared with $146 million in the third quarter of 2024. International refining posted earnings of $499 million, up 11% from $449 million in the year-ago period. Refining profits increased year over year due to higher margins on product sales.

Capital expenditures increased 7% to $4.4 billion over the year-ago quarter due to spending on legacy Hess assets. Chevron’s adjusted free cash flow increased about 50% to $7 billion over the year-ago period.

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California quietly kills e-bike voucher program, funnels funds into cars instead

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October 31, 2025

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California quietly kills e-bike voucher program, funnels funds into cars instead

California’s ambitious statewide electric bicycle incentive program is officially dead – and it didn’t even get a funeral. After years of buildup, delays, and surging public interest, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) has quietly ended the program, rolling the remaining $17 million of the original $30 million budget into its “Clean Cars 4 All” initiative without even making an official announcement.

The California E-Bike Incentive Project was originally hailed as a groundbreaking effort to make electric bikes affordable for low-income residents. Vouchers – not rebates – were designed to let buyers walk into a participating shop and ride out without covering the full price upfront. Base vouchers were worth $1,000, with up to $2,500 available for those purchasing cargo or adaptive e-bikes in priority communities. It was a model that other states were watching closely.

But from the outset, the program was plagued by setbacks. Years of delays meant the first vouchers weren’t distributed until late 2024, and even then, only after a chaotic launch that saw the website crash under the weight of tens of thousands of applicants vying for just 1,500 vouchers. A second launch attempt in April 2025 failed completely, locking out eligible users. While a final distribution round in May went more smoothly, an estimated 90% of eligible applicants were turned away due to limited supply.

To make matters worse, the program’s administrator, Pedal Ahead, came under fire for questionable practices in San Diego, further undermining confidence.

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Now, with no formal announcement or update on the program’s official website, CARB has quietly absorbed the funds into its Clean Cars 4 All program.

Electrek’s Take

This is an enormous letdown.

The California E-Bike Incentive Project had the potential to reshape car-heavy communities by giving low-income Californians access to clean, affordable micromobility. Instead, it was starved by mismanagement and then cannibalized to prop up car-centric policy.

It’s not that electric cars don’t deserve support, but this move reflects a broader failure of imagination. If we want a future with fewer cars, not just cleaner ones, then we need to start funding real alternatives. This was a huge missed opportunity to invest in a more livable California.

via: Streetsblog


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