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The Headquarters of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna, Austria on 17 December, 2018.
Beata Zawrzel | NurPhoto | Getty Images

LONDON — A group of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers will likely agree to continue increasing their output at a meeting on Tuesday, analysts say, as oil prices climb amid growing optimism over the fuel demand outlook.

OPEC and its non-OPEC partners, an alliance often referred to as OPEC+, will meet via videoconference to discuss the next phase of production policy.

It comes as the Middle East-dominated group, which is responsible for over one-third of global oil production, seeks to balance an expected upswing in demand with the potential for an increase in Iranian output.

OPEC+ announced massive crude production cuts in 2020 in an effort to support prices when the coronavirus pandemic coincided with a historic demand shock.

In April, the group opted to return 2.1 million barrels per day of supply back to the market over the May to July period, reflecting an optimistic outlook for improved mobility despite ongoing concerns about Covid worldwide.

OPEC+ is expected to reiterate this decision to gradually increase output during this week’s meeting.

“I think the event itself is going to be a non-event. We expect them to basically re-confirm the plan that they laid out on April 1,” Jeffrey Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Tuesday. “I think the bigger issue underlying this is: How are they going to deal with Iran?”

Iran is currently in discussion with six world powers to revive its 2015 nuclear deal. The restoration of a deal could lead to more oil on the global market in the coming months.

“It’s too early to give specific numbers around Iran … So, I think the best you can hope for in terms of how they are going to deal with Iran is the indication that they are willing to offset any increases in Iran. That could be the positive upside surprise coming out of this meeting,” Currie added.

The flag of Iran is seen in front of the building of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Headquarters ahead of a press conference by Rafael Grossi, Director General of the IAEA, about the agency’s monitoring of Iran’s nuclear energy program on May 24, 2021 in Vienna, Austria.
Michael Gruber | Getty Images News | Getty Images

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo on Monday said in a statement that he did not believe higher Iranian supply would be a cause for concern.

“We anticipate that the expected return of Iranian production and exports to the global market will occur in an orderly and transparent fashion,” Barkindo said.

International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $70.75 a barrel on Tuesday morning in London, up around 2%, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures stood at $68.11, more than 2.7% higher from Friday’s close — with no settlement price on Monday due to a U.S. public holiday.

Oil prices have climbed more than 30% since the start of the year.

Iran likely to act ‘constructively’

“I think everybody is expecting Iran to add a lot of volume. So, beyond the July increase, they aren’t likely to come out with any commitment,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday.

“We know that as demand rises, we will need more OPEC barrels, but I think Iran is going to be the big question mark for them,” Sen said.

OPEC+ initially agreed to cut oil production by a record of 9.7 million barrels per day last year as global fuel demand collapsed, before easing cuts to 7.7 million and eventually 7.2 million from January. As of July, the group’s production cuts are on track to stand at 5.8 million.

“The most consequential issue for OPEC+ over the short term relates to the potential rise of Iranian production as a result of the US and Iran returning to JCPOA compliance,” analysts at Eurasia Group said in a research note, referring to the acronym for the nuclear deal: the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Analysts at the risk consultancy said it believed progress in successive rounds of talks made a return to the deal likely in the third quarter of 2021.

“Over the medium term, OPEC+ will most likely adjust its policy to prevent the addition of Iranian barrels from derailing its market balancing strategy,” they continued. “Saudi Arabia will likely lean on Russia to better understand the scope of Iranian policy to work on adjustment plans. Iran would also probably act constructively as higher oil prices serve its own interests.”

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How a Jack Dorsey-backed bitcoin miner uses a volcano in Kenya to turn on the lights in rural homes

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How a Jack Dorsey-backed bitcoin miner uses a volcano in Kenya to turn on the lights in rural homes

Jack Dorsey backed start-up taps into geothermal, hydro and solar power to run bitcoin mines across Africa

HELL’S GATE, Kenya — Two-and-a-half hours northwest of Nairobi by car, a small group of bitcoin miners set up shop at the site of an extinct volcano near Hell’s Gate National Park.

The mine, tucked away on the edge of Lake Naivasha, is operated by a startup called Gridless and consists of a single 500-kilowatt mobile container that, from the outside, looks like a small residential trailer.

Backed by Jack Dorsey’s Block, Gridless electrifies its machines with a mix of solar power and the stranded, wasted energy from a nearby geothermal site. It’s one of six mines run by the company in Kenya, Malawi and Zambia, powered by a mix of renewable inputs and working toward a broader mission of securing and decentralizing the bitcoin network.

Gridless runs Gridlesin Hell’s Gate operates on geothermal power.

MacKenzie Sigalos

“Most people think about bitcoin and the price of bitcoin and how they can save value in it or maybe spend it,” Gridless CEO Erik Hersman told CNBC during a visit to the Kenyan mine earlier this year. “That doesn’t happen without the bitcoin miners and us being globally distributed.”

Decentralization is a key feature of bitcoin, because it means the network isn’t controlled by any entity and can’t be shut down — even if a government disapproves.

Bitcoin and some other cryptocurrencies are created through a process known as proof-of-work, in which miners around the world run high-powered computers that collectively validate transactions and simultaneously create new tokens. The process requires heaps of electricity, leading miners to seek out the cheapest sources of power.

While there are more than a dozen publicly traded miners, thousands of smaller, private operations are also competing to process transactions and get paid in new bitcoin. That includes individual miners in countries from Venezuela to Lebanon, and can involve a single mining rig in a kitchen or several hundred thousand of them in an industrial-grade datacenter.

Gridless runs a geothermal-powered bitcoin mine in Hell’s Gate on the shore of Lake Naivasha.

MacKenzie Sigalos

Wherever the operation, bitcoin mining is a volatile business, because so much of the economics depends on the price of the cryptocurrency. Since losing 60% of its value in 2022, bitcoin has come roaring back, hitting a record above $73,000 in March, before pulling back a bit in recent weeks.

Much of the rally has been tied to the launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S., as well as optimism surrounding the so-called halving that took place late Friday. That event occurs every four years and is designed to cut the reward for bitcoin miners in half, reducing the pace at which new bitcoins enter the market. Prior halving events have been followed by big run-ups in the cryptocurrency.

“Bitcoin is effectively unbreakable at this point,” said Adam Sullivan, CEO of Core Scientific, a bitcoin miner based in Texas. “Bitcoin is at a point where it is more profitable to continue supporting the network than to try and break it.”

Analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote in a note on April 18 that they expect the geography of crypto mining to shift after the halving as slimmer profit margins force miners to seek cheaper and more reliable forms of energy. The analysts wrote that the U.S. currently accounts for 40% of mining, with Russia at 20% and China at 15%.

“Latin America, Africa and the Middle East have caught the attention of crypto miners due to their lower energy costs,” they wrote.

Bitfarms, based in Toronto, is now operating in Argentina, while Marathon Digital, headquartered in Florida, has expanded into the United Arab Emirates and Paraguay.

Hersman, 48, was raised in Kenya and Sudan, where his parents were linguists. Before getting into bitcoin mining, he and his two co-founders, Philip Walton and Janet Maingi, spent years building internet connectivity infrastructure in rural and urban Africa.

Gridless runs bitcoin mines in Kenya, Malawi, and Zambia on a mix of renewable energy sources. The company’s site in Hell’s Gate operates on geothermal power.

MacKenzie Sigalos

In early 2022, the trio began brainstorming creative solutions for the divide between power generation and capacity, and the lack of access to electricity in Africa. They landed on the idea of bitcoin mining, which could potentially solve a big problem for renewable energy developers by taking their stranded power and spreading it to other parts of the continent. In Africa, 43% of the population, or roughly 600 million people, lack access to electricity.

Gridless now has eight full-time staffers and manages much of its operations remotely with its software.

Turning lava into bitcoin

Hell’s Gate is a deep and winding canyon that is home to cheetahs, zebras, and giraffes and rimmed by cliffs, volcanoes and thick bush.

The area is covered in ash, and sulfuric plumes of steam will periodically emit from the ground, a reminder of the surrounding, smoldering volcanic craters that wiped out some of the native Maasai tribe in the mid-19th century and threatened others who dared to take up residence there.

Gone are the days of fatal eruptions and spewing lava. Instead, an elaborate, labyrinthine piping system and volcanic plugs comprise multiple geothermal power stations.

A drilling hole at the Olkaria geothermal power station in Hell´s Gate National Park.

Getty Images/Michael Gottschalk

Volcano-powered bitcoin mining isn’t new.

Iceland, El Salvador and other countries have been harnessing geothermal energy to mine bitcoin. To make the conditions work for miners, the businesses need the combination of a buy-in from local authorities, cheap and abundant power and some infrastructure, said Nic Carter, founding partner of Castle Island Ventures, which focuses on blockchain investments.

“If you have those three ingredients, it can work, but sometimes, it’s the nation state, or a national, state energy company doing it,” Carter said. He pointed to the Middle East, which is getting into flare gas mining as an example of state-level actors entering the business.

“In some cases, it’s with the explicit blessing of the nation state like Bhutan, and then in Texas, it’s just with very favorable local regulators and local conditions,” he said. 

Africa is home to an estimated 10 terawatts of solar capacity, 350 gigawatts of hydro and another 110 gigawatts of wind.

Some of this renewable energy is being harnessed already, but a lot isn’t because building the specialized infrastructure to capture it is expensive. Even with 60% of the best solar resources globally, Africa only has 1% of installed solar PV capacity.

Enter bitcoin miners.

Bitcoin gets a bad rap for the amount of energy it consumes, but it can also help unlock these trapped renewable sources of power. Miners are essentially energy buyers, and co-locating with renewables creates a financial incentive to bolster production.

“As often happens, you’ll have an overage of power during the day or even at night, and there’s nobody to soak that power up,” said Hersman. He said his company’s 50-kilowatt mining container can “take up whatever is extra throughout the day.”

Steam tubes at the Olkaria geothermal power station in Hell´s Gate National Park.

Getty Images/Michael Gottschalk

“Within any second or minute, we are going up and down on a certain number of miners that are running,” Hersman said. “It might be down to 50 kilowatts, then up to 300 kilowatts, then down to 200 kilowatts, and then up to another level — and that will happen all day and all night.”

According to the International Energy Agency, in Africa’s rural areas, “where over 80% of the electricity-deprived live, mini-grids and stand-alone systems, mostly solar based, are the most viable solutions.”

Demand from bitcoin miners on these semi-stranded assets is making renewables in Africa economically viable. The power supplier benefits from selling energy that previously had been discarded, while the energy plants will sometimes lower costs for the customer. At one of the Gridless pilot sites in Kenya, the hydro plant dropped the price of power from 35 cents per kilowatt hour to 25 cents per kWh.

The buildout of capacity is also electrifying households.

Gridless says its sites have powered 1,200 houses in Zambia, 1,800 in Malawi and 5,000 in Kenya. The company’s mines also have delivered power for containerized cold storage for local farmers, battery charging stations for electric motorcycles and public WiFi points.

“It’s not really sexy,” Hersman said. “It’s a mining container made from a shipping container. It’s got a bunch of dumb machines sitting in it running the same equation over and over again, but it’s actually what secures the network.”

Bitcoin price surge and generative AI dominate discourse at Africa Tech Summit

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How a climate tech founder is growing his advisory board, including Larry Summers

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How a climate tech founder is growing his advisory board, including Larry Summers

Palmetto CEO Chris Kemper

Palmetto

Nearly fifteen years into founding climate tech company Palmetto, Chris Kemper has seen plenty of changes across the clean energy industry, from early solar companies that are now public to Series A startups founded following the Inflation Reduction Act. 

Ensuring that the company continues to evolve in what Kemper calls “a complicated space” has been critical, especially with its goal of having a significant impact on mitigating climate change. 

But meeting that lofty challenge is increasingly not just a function of Kemper’s gained expertise in renewables and clean technology from stints at the UN and financing clean energy projects in developing countries before founding Palmetto, he told us recently. “You’ve got to deal with all sorts of stuff,” he said, rattling off several topics from international and domestic policies to the evolution of AI and building towards potentially becoming a public company. 

Building the proper sounding board is critical for any leader, especially as challenges and opportunities for business are emerging quicker than ever. 

For Kemper, his approach has been to build a network around him where “the world is kind of one degree away.” 

“When I’m looking at part of the business, trying to think outside of the box, or this is the problem I’m trying to solve, I think, okay, who has done that really well? What businesses have operated like that? Who is behind that? That’s my mentality, and then I figure out how do I get to that person,” he said. 

That has led Kemper to build out Palmetto’s advisory board, which includes former commissioner of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Neil Chatterjee, neighborhood-focused social app Nextdoor co-founder Nirav Tolia, and Monica Williams, chief consulting officer at The Equity Project. 

Palmetto’s latest appointment is former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who in addition to holding that post during Bill Clinton’s presidency, was director of the National Economic Council for President Obama and chief economist of the World Bank. Kemper said Summers’ expertise will be crucial as the company looks to navigate the continually murky waters of economic policy moving forward. 

“We decided it would really help us to bring in an advisor who could really help us understand the lay of the land from a macro perspective,” Kemper said. “We were able to meet Larry and talk through how he could be a value add.” 

It also helped that Summers has a focus on climate mitigation, and Kemper said there was a shared belief around how that could have “a material impact on the macro economy in the longer term.”

“We are living in an era of rising energy prices and accelerating climate change. Decarbonization is not only vital for environmental sustainability but also for stabilizing global long-term economic growth,” Summers said in a statement.

Kemper said the company is looking to Summers for thoughts and updates on things like its 18- to 24-month rolling plan, how it should be managing treasury and corporate cash, how it should manage price points to consumers, and private placement of its paper, among other things.

Overall, Kemper looks to make it a point to stay in touch with his advisors at least once a month, and when there’s a particular focus on a particular topic, “we’re grabbing dinner and talking about it.”

Kemper is quick to acknowledge for some large companies the approach might be different, but he said he believes creating an advisory board of some sort is critical for all successful executives.

“Most industries are so interconnected and complex. You have to have some perspective on so many different topic sets,” he said.

U.S. solar installations hit record in 2023

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Tesla is ending its referral program on April 30th worldwide

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Tesla is ending its referral program on April 30th worldwide

Tesla is once again axing its referral program, which allowed owners to earn prizes by referring new buyers to buy a Tesla.

For many years now, Tesla has offered some sort of program to allow current owners to benefit from evangelizing the brand.

It started early on, when Tesla owners recognized that they had “sold” several Teslas to their friends via test drives, conversations, and so on, and owners asked Tesla to implement a scheme to give them referral rewards.

The program was originally launched in 2015, and has evolved many times since then. It started off as a direct $1,000 reward, but later turned into various tier systems, point systems, and so on.

A buyer would use a current owner’s referral link to place an order, and in return the buyer would get some sort of benefit (a discount, some free supercharging, or some free FSD access), and the referrer would get credit towards some sort of prize.

At one point, Tesla even promised free or discounted next-gen Roadsters, and ended up promising giving away around 80 of them – or at least, promising to, whenever that car (or is it even a car?) may or may not finally get made.

Unsurprisingly, after promising such substantial prizes, Tesla substantially reduced the prizes available in 2019, and later ended the program for everything except solar roof in 2021.

But the next year, Tesla brought the referral program back, though again in a more limited form. This version would give buyers either temporary free supercharging, temporary FSD access, temporary premium connectivity, or $500 off a new vehicle (depending on when you purchased the vehicle), and referrers would get credits that could be redeemed in Tesla’s shop for merchandise or accessories.

It also occasionally offered special prizes like accelerated Cybertruck delivery, invites to the Cybertruck delivery event, or entries into vehicle sweepstakes that could be purchased with referral credits.

However, all of that is ending now, on April 30th. Tesla announced today that the referral program will be shut down in all markets on that date.

Tesla has not yet updated the legalese on its referral page, so we don’t know the specifics yet of how it will be retired. Orders made before April 30th may still qualify for credits if delivered after April 30th, and referral credits already earned may be redeemable after that date (Sawyer Merritt says both of these things will be true, but we don’t know his source for that). Given that credits earned beforehand do have an expiry date, we expect that Tesla will have to honor them until their expiry date, but some rewards may disappear before those expiry dates come.

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