It’s MLB trade season!

From the early deals to get things started to the last-minute rush of deadline day activity on Thursday, this is your one-stop shop for grades and analysis breaking down the details for every trade as they go down.

Follow along as ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield evaluate and grade each move, with the most recent grades at the top. This story will continue to be updated, so be sure to return for the freshest deadline analysis.

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Phillies get:
RHP Jhoan Duran

Twins get:
C Eduardo Tait
RHP Mick Abel

Phillies grade: A

Is this classic David Dombrowski, or what? The Philadelphia Phillies, despite owning one of baseball’s best overall records, have a saves leader in Jordan Romano who has just eight with a 6.81 ERA. They’ve mixed and matched in high-leverage spots, not just save situations, with Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering emerging as the most reliable performers. Take those two, slot them in behind Duran, and how much prettier does that postseason picture look?

Duran might end up as the most valuable reliever dealt at the deadline, trumping the New York Mets‘ deal earlier in the day for Tyler Rogers. Perhaps noticing this, the Mets almost immediately responded by also acquiring Ryan Helsley from the St. Louis Cardinals. Even if the “most valuable traded reliever” title is up for debate, Duran will definitely be in the mix.

He’s arguably a better fit for Philadelphia than Helsley would’ve been, anyway, because Duran makes about half the money in 2025 and the Phillies are paying the maximum penalty in luxury tax (110% on payroll added from here) that the CBA allows. Duran also has three more years of team control (arbitration seasons) remaining after 2025. The Phillies have a new closer and it’s not just for the stretch run of this season.

In dealing Tait and Abel, president of baseball operations Dombrowski dealt two of his top-10 prospects (Nos. 4 and 5) but he didn’t deal Andrew Painter, whose name reportedly kept popping up on the Minnesota Twins‘ wish list. But dealing prospects is what Dombrowski does — along with winning pennants.

For the Phillies, it’s all about August, September and beyond. Their chances to navigate those crucial months just increased considerably.

Twins grade: B

Abel and Tait are excellent prospects that make the Twins’ system deeper and raise its ceiling. Abel, 23, has already gotten his feet wet at the big league level and should help the Twins rotation from the outset. He’s a classic long (6-foot-5), hard-throwing righty with good extension who, so far, has been hit pretty hard on contact — but he’s just getting started.

Tait has generally been the higher ranked of the two and is one of the 10 best catching prospects in the game. He’s also still a month shy of his 19th birthday, so unless the Twins put him on the really fast track, he’ll be climbing the ranks for a bit. His bat is exciting, with a good base of raw power and a better-than-average hit tool. Most analysts like his arm behind the plate but suggest he needs to learn the finer points of catching to stick at that crucial spot.

It’s a good haul, and the value exchange is reasonable for both sides. But given the clamor that had to exist for a player with Duran’s stuff, closing experience and service-time level, it feels like the Twins could have come out with more of a decided edge on the value standpoint. If they were going to trade Duran, they needed to be truly wowed and I’m not convinced this trade does that. Otherwise, I’d just as soon retain one of the game’s best relievers.

Clearly, the Twins’ evaluators buy into the considerable upside of Tait and the ongoing progress of Abel. If they’re right about that, this “B” can become an “A” easily enough. — Doolittle

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Mets get:
RHP Tyler Rogers

Giants get:
OF Drew Gilbert
RHP Jose Butto
RHP Blade Tidwell

Mets grade: C+

Let’s get the important part out of the way first: Of the nine other identical twin combos in MLB history, none of the others was traded on the same day. So, the Rogers twins — who look so much alike as long as they aren’t on the mound — are the first, after Taylor was dealt from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh earlier in the day. That aspect of the grade gets an A+.

The rest of it I’m not so sure about, though Tyler Rogers is without a doubt a significant upgrade for the Mets’ bullpen, giving them a really nice trio at the back of the bullpen with closer Edwin Diaz and Reed Garrett. Deepening the high-leverage contingent was a must-do item for David Stearns at this deadline, so that box has been checked, though more would be nice.

All three in that trio are righties, but they have very different arm slots and pitch mixes, so they should complement each other well. In terms of performance, Rogers has been on point this season with a 1.80 ERA over 50 innings, with 38 whiffs and just four walks. On the other hand, Rogers is in a walk year, and that’s an awful lot of controllable talent to give up for two months and a postseason of a short reliever.

On the other other hand, if Rogers ends up pitching in late-October spots with a high championship-leverage index — and succeeds — Mets fans won’t sweat whatever the three young players headed for San Francisco end up doing. In the meantime, Stearns has freed up room on New York’s 40-man roster that he might need over the next 24 or so hours.

Giants grade: A-

The Giants aren’t out of the race, and while it’s easy to see dealing a key reliever as an act of white flag waving, the actuarial aspect of this deal was simply too good for Buster Posey to pass up. San Francisco’s playoff odds were at 12% in my system through Tuesday night, and while that’s not impossible, Posey is doing the right thing by (presumably) playing both sides of the fence. The Giants’ bullpen has been fantastic this season and is weakened by the loss of Rogers, but there’s still enough there to get back into the playoff chase if San Francisco snaps out of its extended slump.

Gilbert, the Mets’ No. 8 prospect, is the headliner: a good-defending outfielder with a strong enough arm that he can play anywhere in the grass. His offensive profile lacks a statistical standout, and as he will turn 25 in September, the Giants are likely going to push him along as quickly as they can.

Tidwell has good stuff, with a slider as his strong point, but his command has wavered during this development. It’s been better this year, and he made his first four big league appearances earlier this season. He has been a starter, but his fastball-slider combo gives him the flexibility to fill a key bullpen role if that’s the direction the Giants want to go.

Butto has the most big league experience of the three. He had been a combo-type hurler in the majors for the Mets until working exclusively in a medium-leverage role this season. He’ll likely fill Rogers’ role in the San Francisco bullpen for now, but with multiple controllable seasons left on his service-time clock, there’s a lot the Giants can do with him.

Rogers was terrific, but this haul was too good for Posey to refuse. — Doolittle

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Yankees get:
OF Austin Slater

White Sox get:
RHP Gage Ziehl

Yankees grade: C+

The Yankees need outfield help. Slater is an outfielder, a veteran, with an easy-to-peg if limited set of strengths. The offense is short right now with Aaron Judge on the injured list, and while Slater is a Lilliputian to Judge’s Gulliver, he plays a decent corner outfield and hits lefty pitchers at an above-average rate, owning a .798 career OPS against southpaws and .859 this season. The recent pickup of Amed Rosario now looks like one that gives fellow recent pickup Ryan McMahon a platoon partner at third base, so Slater should have a steady role on the grass until Judge returns, and perhaps after as a platoon partner for Trent Grisham, with Judge playing some in center.

Eventually, we’ll find out whether losing Ziehl was too steep of a price to pay for adding a role player for two months and the postseason, but the Yankees are putting together a deep and balanced bench — provided their cornerstone players are healthy when October arrives. At the very least, Slater’s addition reduces the chances of the Yankees asking Giancarlo Stanton to figure out where his outfield glove has been stored.

White Sox grade: B

Ziehl hails from upstate New York, not far from the southern shore of Lake Ontario, and if he emerges as a big league pitcher, it looks as if he’ll do so just off the western shore of Lake Michigan now that he’s Chris Getz’s latest prospect acquisition for Chicago.

According to the prospect gurus, Ziehl relies on decent velocity with plus command and a plus sweeper-style slider as the foundation of his arsenal. A standout on the excellent Miami Hurricanes’ staff, Ziehl prospered in high-level competition as a collegian. This year marks his first taste of professional game action, and the results have been just so-so.

But the White Sox had very little use for Slater’s services except for this precise purpose: to add depth to the Chicago farm system via a trade deadline deal. Given Slater’s lack of everyday-player utility, this seems like a solid return. — Doolittle

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Reds get:
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes

Pirates get:
SS Sammy Stafura
LHP Taylor Rogers

Reds grade: C-

The Reds have been one of the 57 teams mentioned as having interest in one-time Cincinnati third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who certainly would have been a more direct response to the Reds’ acute need for a middle-of-the-order bat. Hayes, whose sub-.300 slugging percentage stirs fond memories of 1970s-era shortstops, is not that.

He is, however, a Platinum Glove-level defender at the hot corner and, as they say, a run saved is as good as a run scored. Cincinnati has been playing Noelvi Marte at third base recently, and while Marte is having his best season at the plate, his defensive marks have been consistently below average and he has the positional versatility to rove around the field, as do most of the Reds’ other corner players.

Hayes doesn’t move around the field, but you don’t want him to. His value is as a defensive vacuum on the left side of the infield, one who will team with Elly De La Cruz to form one of the more dynamic infield duos around. The four years and $30 million Hayes has left on the extension he signed early in his career should be team-friendly, but he’s got to hit more than he has the past two campaigns amid ongoing back issues. For what it’s worth, Great American Ballpark is the only park other than PNC in which he’s hit more than two career homers. If the bat doesn’t pick up though, the Reds have likely acquired a long-term underwater contract.

Getting the Pirates to take on the remainder of Rogers’ expiring deal (the prorated remainder of his $12 million salary) likely sweetened the prospect return for Pittsburgh, while possibly freeing up the Reds’ payroll for further pursuits of that needed power bat.

Pirates grade: B

It sure seemed like the Pirates had developed their long-term third baseman when Hayes arrived and signed that extension, but the collapse of his bat ended that notion. Some teams might be able to carry a great-defending, poor-hitting corner player, but the Pirates need offense wherever they can get it. Getting out of their commitment to Hayes at least gives them a chance to find a more productive solution at his position.

Stafura, who just missed Cincinnati’s top 10 in Kiley McDaniel’s most recent prospect rankings could well be that guy. Or he might be the Pirates’ shortstop of the future, giving Pittsburgh the option of deploying elite prospect Konnor Griffin in center field.

Stafura is an athletic infielder with plus speed and an above-average defensive profile, good enough to stick at short according to most prospect analysts. His offensive profile is a little murky. He has exceptional plate discipline, but the question is whether he’ll make enough consistent contact in the majors to maintain the high OBPs he’s posted as a professional. Either way, he deepens Pittsburgh’s prospect base. — Doolittle

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Brewers get:
C Danny Jansen (from Rays)

Rays get:
C Nick Fortes (from Marlins)
IF Jadher Areinamo (from Brewers)

Marlins get:
OF Matthew Etzel (from Rays)

Brewers grade: B

This might seem like a bizarre trade for the Brewers because they already have a solid catcher in William Contreras, but it looks like they are trying to cover all of their bases as they look toward a potential deep run in October. A question that a playoff-caliber team should consider: What happens if our starting catcher gets injured?

That’s pertinent for the Brewers because Contreras has played through a broken finger on his glove hand that he suffered in early May. That perhaps explains his lower offensive production this year, and he has struggled since the beginning of June, hitting just .229 with one home run in 44 games.

Jansen provides an upgrade over Eric Haase in the Brewers’ backup slot and could take some playing time from Contreras, who has started 87 of the Brewers’ 105 games. Jansen is a low-average hitter who can occasionally homer, hitting .204/.314/.389 with 11 home runs. It’s not a major move on paper, but it’s a smart one from one of the best front offices in the game.

Rays grade: C+

The Rays had big problems during the past couple of seasons with their catcher production, which led them to sign Jansen in the offseason to a one-year deal worth $8 million with a $12 million mutual option. The change from Jansen to Fortes makes sense from the Rays’ perspective: They were unlikely to pick up their half of that 2026 option, so with Fortes under team control through 2028, they at least have a semi-solution for the foreseeable future.

The only issue is that Fortes struggles at the plate, with a career line of .225/.277/.344, and he’s even worse if you look at his numbers since 2023. He is a good defensive catcher, ranking high in Statcast’s framing runs saved despite his limited playing time, so he at least provides a replacement.

Areinamo, who was traded for Jansen, was Milwaukee’s No. 24 prospect, via MLB.com. He’s a 21-year-old who has played all three infield positions at High-A, hitting .297/.355/.463 with 11 home runs. He’s undersized at 5-foot-8 with a strange bat whip as the pitcher delivers the pitch, but he has generated excellent contact rates and has performed in the low minors. He looks like a good sleeper prospect — and we know the Rays have thrived on acquiring those kinds of players (although they’ve made some mistakes as well, like trading Cristopher Sanchez to the Phillies).

Marlins grade: C

The Marlins deal from an organizational strength in trading Fortes. Rookies Agustin Ramirez and Liam Hicks have emerged as a solid backstop duo (with Ramirez getting a lot of DH time), plus they also have Joe Mack, one of their top prospects, in Triple-A.

Etzel was the Rays’ No. 28 prospect, via MLB.com, but the 23-year-old lefty-hitting outfielder has struggled in Double-A, hitting .230/.360/.347 with five home runs in 196 at-bats. He has been out since June 20 because of an injury. He was originally acquired last season from the Baltimore Orioles in the Zach Eflin trade. Etzel has plus speed and takes some walks, but he has played only the corner outfield in Double-A, so he looks like a tweener — not enough power for a corner position, not enough defense for center.

More proof that poor-hitting catchers have limited trade value, even if they’re excellent defensive catchers. — Schoenfield

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Tigers get:
RHP Chris Paddack
RHP Randy Dobnak

Twins get:
C Enrique Jimenez

Tigers grade: D

The Detroit Tigers have been stumbling of late, going 2-12 since July 9 (and 21-25 since June 3 if you want to go back a bit further) — and it hasn’t been just a little stumble. They’ve been outscored 93-to-43 in this 14-game stretch, with the starting rotation posting a 5.59 ERA — and that’s including Tarik Skubal‘s numbers (although he did have one mediocre start in there).

The bullpen has been even worse, with a 7.93 ERA in this stretch and 5.03 since the beginning of June. Though it makes sense for the Tigers to acquire some pitching help, Paddack hardly projects as anything more than someone who might chew up a few extra innings beyond what they’ve been getting from their current back-end starters. He’s 3-9 with a 4.95 ERA for the Minnesota Twins, including a 5.40 ERA on the road, where his home run rate has spiked.

Paddack does throw strikes and has pitched at least five innings in 17 of 21 starts this season, but batters are hitting .266 with a .753 OPS off him. He’s a below-average starter, but probably a minor upgrade over Keider Montero, who has allowed 10 runs in 8⅓ innings over his past two starts and was sent down to the minors, or rookie Troy Melton, who made his first career start last week and got hammered by the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. Meanwhile, Dobnak is just a salary dump for the Twins — he wasn’t even on their 40-man roster and has a 7.12 ERA in Triple-A.

This is just one move for the Tigers. It’s not game changer. Look for them to add some bullpen help over the next few days.

Twins grade: C

Though this mostly seems like the Twins dumping a couple of million in salary between Paddack and Dobnak — don’t ever change, Twins — Jimenez is at least a real prospect, a 19-year-old catcher hitting .250/.339/.440 in the Florida Complex League. He was Detroit’s top international signing in 2023, out of Venezuela, and was ranked No. 14 on MLB.com’s prospect list for the Tigers and No. 17 on Baseball America’s. Jimenez is a switch-hitter, which is always fun to see from a catcher, but it’s also his second year in the FCL and his numbers have shown just minor improvement from 2024. Check back in three years. — Schoenfield

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Yankees get:
3B Ryan McMahon

Rockies get:
LHP Griffin Herring
RHP Josh Grosz

Yankees grade: B

For Yankees fans who wanted Eugenio Suarez to fill the hole at third base, this looks like a big letdown considering McMahon is hitting .217/.314/.403 with 16 home runs — compared to Suarez’s 36 — and ranking second in the majors in strikeouts while playing half of his games at Coors Field. Away from Colorado, he has hit just .189 with five home runs. Consider the positives, however:

• He has signed through 2027, so he is a solution at third base for the next two years as well (he’ll make $16 million each of the next two seasons).

• He is an excellent defender, ranking in the 91st percentile in Statcast’s outs above average.

• He ranks in the 86th percentile in walk rate.

• He ranks in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity and 87th percentile in hard-hit rate.

• He might get the “leaving Coors Field” boost, where his road numbers adjust to playing his home games in a more normal environment.

That last one is important. The Yankees have experience with this: DJ LeMahieu hit .327 and .364 in his first two seasons with the Yankees after leaving the Rockies. Yes, the strikeouts are the big concern here with McMahon, and while he is not having his best season, at the minimum, he upgrades the defense and gives the Yankees a little more power. I suspect McMahon won’t hit .189 with the Yankees and could prove to be a sneaky good addition.

Rockies grade: C

While McMahon’s name had been on the rumor mill, it’s still a mild surprise the Rockies actually traded him. First, they rarely make trades of any sort, especially significant ones, and they especially rarely trade their homegrown players such as McMahon. So, at least good for them for doing something that probably makes sense.

Did they get much in return? Herring was a sixth-round pick last year from LSU, where he pitched in relief. The Yankees turned him into a starter, and Herring has mowed through two levels of Single-A with a 1.71 ERA and 10.3 K’s per nine. Primarily a fastball/sweeper guy at LSU, his changeup has proven a big weapon as right-handed batters are hitting just .159 against him.

A college pitcher from a high-profile program such as LSU dominating the low minors usually doesn’t tell us much, except in this case, Herring’s lack of experience and successful transition to a bigger workload is a huge positive. Herring didn’t crack Kiley McDaniel’s top 10 Yankees prospects in his July update but did make MLB.com’s list at No. 8.

Grosz has spent the entire 2025 season at high A, posting a 4.14 ERA with 94 strikeouts in 85 innings and holding batters to a .211 average. He has a high-spin fastball that sits in the mid-90s, but the secondary stuff needs improvement, and the command is a tick below average (35 walks).

The biggest issue is these are two pitchers who haven’t performed above Single-A and don’t necessarily have elite stuff. The stat lines look good, but the next step to Double-A will be a big test to see how Herring’s fastball plays against better competition and whether Grosz can improve his command. — Schoenfield

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Mets get:
LHP Gregory Soto

Orioles get:
RHP Wellington Aracena, RHP Cameron Foster

Mets grade: C+

Through the end of May, the Mets’ bullpen ranked second in the majors with a 2.78 ERA. Since June 1, however, the Mets rank 27th with a 5.02 ERA, so Soto is a logical addition — and probably won’t be the last reliever the Mets acquire. Part of the problem is Mets’ starters haven’t pitched deep into games and manager Carlos Mendoza ran his top relievers except closer Edwin Diaz into the ground.

The Mets have also been without a reliable lefty with offseason signing A.J. Minter out for the year. They did just activate Brooks Raley, but Soto gives them another lefty option, no doubt thinking ahead to potential playoff matchups against the Phillies (Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber), Dodgers (Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman) or Cubs (Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong). They’re going to need more than one lefty reliever.

Is Soto a good option though? He still has premium stuff with a 97 mph fastball and wipeout slider, and left-handed batters are hitting just .138 against him in 2025 (although two of the eight hits have been home runs). As always, however, throwing strikes is often an issue (4.5 walks per nine), and he has a large platoon split (right-handed batters have a .371 OBP against him). Soto is a good left-on-left on matchup, but his control means he isn’t always the most trustworthy, and the Orioles weren’t using him in a lot of high-leverage situations of late.

Orioles grade: B-

Let the exodus begin. With as many as 11 more potential free agents, the Orioles are going to be busy over the next week. A lot of those trades will look like this one: a couple of second-tier type prospects. Aracena (No. 19 on MLB.com’s Mets list, No. 28 on Baseball America) is a 6-foot-3, 20-year-old right-hander with a 2.38 ERA in low-A, including 84 strikeouts in 64 innings, featuring a fastball in the upper 90s that has topped out at 101. That’s the good news. The “Why did the Mets trade him?” news is that he has walked 35 batters. He has a cutter and a slider, but the profile here suggests he might end up as a reliever. Still, a decent return for a non-elite reliever such as Soto.

Foster is a 26-year-old reliever who crushed Double-A in repeating the level this season (1.01 ERA), although he struggled in his first two outings after a recent promotion to Triple-A (seven runs in 3.2 innings). Given all the trades the Orioles will make, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him pop up in the big league bullpen at some point this season. — Schoenfield

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Mariners get:
1B Josh Naylor

Diamondbacks get:
LHP Brandyn Garcia
RHP Ashton Izzi

Mariners grade: B+

This is the first significant trade heading into the final week before the deadline, and it’s interesting in part because it signifies the Diamondbacks are going to be dealing — Naylor could be the first of a group that might include Eugenio Suarez, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, potentially spicing up the deadline with some intriguing names.

While third base was the Mariners’ biggest offensive need, Naylor gives them a well-rounded hitter who has been one of the top contact hitters in the majors this season, hitting .292/.360/.447 with 11 home runs and the 13th-lowest strikeout rate among qualified hitters. Naylor has done most of his damage against right-handed pitchers, hitting .310/.390/.493 with nine of his 11 home runs. That’s an upgrade over incumbent Luke Raley, who has hit .248/.370/.397 against right-handers but is just 1-for-20 against southpaws, with light-hitting Donovan Solano serving as his platoon partner.

Naylor can play every day and fits somewhere in the middle of the lineup, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the majors in strikeout rate, so his contact ability will be a nice addition. It also improves Seattle’s bench as Raley can now fill in at right field (although Dominic Canzone has been hitting well) or DH, with Jorge Polanco perhaps getting some time at second base over Cole Young. Rookie third baseman Ben Williamson is an excellent defender but has just one home run in 256 at-bats. While Polanco has plenty of experience at third in his career, he hasn’t started there since April 4 as a shoulder issue has limited his throwing.

In other words: The Mariners could still seek an upgrade at third base. The Diamondbacks might wait until July 31 to deal Suarez, hoping that one of the several teams that need a third baseman will give in with a nice package of prospects. The Mariners didn’t give up any of their top 10 prospects here, so here’s guessing that Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and Arizona general manager Mike Hazen aren’t done exchanging text messages.

Diamondbacks grade: B

While Garcia and Izzi didn’t rank in Kiley McDaniel’s top 10 Mariners prospects, that’s not necessarily a knock on their potential: Seattle’s top 10 is loaded with top-100 overall prospects. Garcia was ranked No. 13 on MLB.com’s team list and Izzi No. 16.

Drafted in the 11th round out of Texas A&M in 2023, Garcia was a surprising success story as a starter in 2024, but the Mariners moved him to the bullpen this season, and he just made his MLB debut after posting a 3.51 ERA across Double-A and Triple-A with 42 strikeouts in 33⅔ innings. He throws a mid-90s sinker along with a sweeper and cutter, and held lefties to a .235 average and .255 slugging percentage. He can probably go straight to Arizona’s bullpen right now, with the idea that the Diamondbacks try him as a starter in 2026. He’s a nice sleeper prospect in a trade like this, with at least a floor as a reliever and maybe some upside as a back-end starter.

Izzi is a 21-year-old righty with a mid-90s fastball who was a fourth-round pick out of high school in 2022, but he has struggled at high-A Everett with a 5.51 ERA across 12 starts. His fastball/sweeper combo could eventually work as a reliever, although right-handed batters have hit him as hard as lefties. He’s a development prospect.

Nothing too flashy here, but there wasn’t going to be a huge market for Naylor, and he was competing with the likes of Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna in the 1B/DH class, so Arizona probably figured it had to strike first with Naylor, giving the team more time to discuss deals for their other pending free agents. — Schoenfield

The MLB trade season is heading to the homestretch!

While this year’s deals have been a bit slow to develop, there have been intriguing acquisitions, with the Seattle Mariners landing Josh Naylor and the New York Yankees getting Ryan McMahon headlining the early moves.

Now, with less than 48 hours remaining to deal before the 6 p.m. ET deadline arrives Thursday, conversations involving big names, including Eugenio Suarez, Dylan Cease and Luis Robert Jr., continue to circulate through the industry.

Which players will move in the final days? Which teams will go all-in to add the best available players? And which trades will have the biggest impact on the rest of the season? We enlisted ESPN MLB insiders Buster Olney and Jeff Passan to offer their latest intel as the deadline nears.

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What are you hearing that could keep things moving in the final hours?

Olney: The New York Mets‘ effort to get better. The Arizona Diamondbacks are the epicenter of the teams looking to part with players, but between now and the deadline, the Mets might be the most aggressive club adding players, looking for a starter who could pitch Game 1, 2 or 3 of a postseason series. Relief pitching and an outfielder — perhaps Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles — are also among their needs.

Passan: The number of teams that want high-leverage relief pitchers — and the relative paucity of them on the market. St. Louis’ Ryan Helsley is the top rental option. And then there is the group of controllable arms who could move but don’t have to: Pittsburgh’s David Bednar, Minnesota’s Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, and Tampa Bay’s Pete Fairbanks.

Considering the number of teams that desire impact relief help — the Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers, both New York teams and the Los Angeles Dodgers — the ones that have it are understandably holding out for a strong return. There are second- and third-tier relievers, sure, but there isn’t enough elite supply for the demand that exists. Which is why San Diego is dangling Robert Suarez, San Francisco is fielding calls on its back-end guys, and even the A’s could conceivably get an offer they can’t refuse for Mason Miller.

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Which deal do you think will have the biggest impact on the rest of the season?

Olney: Whichever late-inning reliever is acquired by the Philadelphia Phillies — whether it be Ryan Helsley or Griffin Jax or someone else — Rob Thomson will have to rely on that pitcher heading into the postseason. Jose Alvarado is sidelined in October because of his PED suspension.

Passan: It all depends on teams’ willingness to move players with multiple years of control. The market of impending free agents ranges somewhere between meh and ugh. But if Joe Ryan or MacKenzie Gore were to go? Duran or Jax? Steven Kwan? All are possible. The cost, at this point, is prohibitive, but the deadline does odd things to front offices. Discomfort can be the most underrated tool at a deadline.

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We’ve seen varying activity levels from the World Series favorites. What are you hearing about the last-minute plans for the division leaders?

Passan: The Blue Jays want at least one more reliever after getting Seranthony Dominguez from the Orioles. Detroit wants to shore up the back end of its bullpen and isn’t against nibbling for value on bigger pieces. The Astros want a starting pitcher. The New York Mets will get an arm and a center-field bat. The Brewers won’t do much, unless value falls into their laps. The Dodgers will consider bigger names, with a reliever the top priority.

Olney: In the American League, the World Series favorite means … everybody. The league seeming to be so wide open is driving a lot of the enthusiasm for the Mariners, Texas Rangers and even the Yankees. You can draw up a reasonable path to the World Series for about seven teams in the AL, and this might well fuel some bold moves in the last hours before the deadline.

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The wild-card races are tightening. What are you hearing the Chicago Cubs, Phillies, Yankees and Mariners could do next as they try to keep their grip on the top spots?

Olney: The Cubs would love to add a front-line starting pitcher, someone who could effectively replace Justin Steele in their rotation. But maybe more than any team, they could be hamstrung by how thin the market is unless they value the cost of acquiring Joe Ryan or Cease or if they work something out for Merrill Kelly.

The Yankees are focused on adding bullpen help and a right-handed hitting outfielder, such as Harrison Bader. The Phillies need a high-end bullpen pitcher but are also in the mix for Luis Robert Jr. And the Mariners are going to do something for their bullpen — plus, some rival execs still view them as the favorite to land Eugenio Suarez.

Passan: Shane Bieber is another option for the Cubs. The Phillies are among the most aggressive teams in the relief market and will add an arm. The Yankees aren’t as gung ho as they were, say, two weeks ago, but they’re going to backfill with at least one solid reliever.

The Mariners are the deadline wild card, though. They’ve got a cadre of top 100-caliber prospects — eight in all — and the question they’ll ask themselves is: Are we comfortable moving someone like Harry Ford for a rental like Suarez? To this point, the answer has been no. But weird things happen in the final 40 hours before a deadline. And a team really going for it — the Mariners want a bullpen arm, too — is far from the worst thing, particularly when said team has never even made the World Series.

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Who are some other available players you are hearing discussed most by front offices?

Passan: Wednesday is the day that teams are hoping to see the asks in return for controllable players come down. If they don’t, those teams will start pivoting to the rental market, understanding that it’s going to be flooded and looking to strike rather than be put in a panicky position over the final 12 hours before the deadline. The big names — Eugenio Suarez, Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Luis Robert Jr., Bednar, Helsley, Bieber — have plenty of traction, and most, if not all, will go.

Olney: I’d guess that 75% of the players moved between now and the deadline will be relievers. This will be like a game of musical chairs, as front offices sort through options such as the Minnesota Twins‘ Danny Coulombe and Griffin Jax, the Rays’ Pete Fairbanks, the Rockies’ Seth Halvorsen, etc. All of the contenders are looking to add relievers, and they are looking at the same players.

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Which other teams are you hearing could be the most active before the deadline arrives?

Olney: The Tampa Bay Rays and Diamondbacks figure to be the most prominent to deal players, and the San Diego Padres will do something to augment their offense and try to get back into the October dance.

Passan: The Orioles, even after moving Dominguez and Gregory Soto, have a huge inventory. The D-backs will be busy. The Marlins, with Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera and a group of relievers, could play a big role. The Twins have lots to offer. Beyond Duran and Jax, left-hander Coulombe and right-hander Brock Stewart are two relievers with markets, and super-utility man Willi Castro could go, too. The Pirates will be busy. And the Guardians hold a lot of cards with Kwan and Bieber.

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What else are you hearing ahead of the deadline?

Olney: A lot of frustration because teams looking to trade prominent players — knowing this year’s market — are holding their asking prices high, and the teams who want to add are trying to wait them out. “It’s a slow-moving market,” one exec said Tuesday night. But at some point, rest assured, the dam will break, and the deals — mostly for relievers — will happen fast and furious.

Passan: The Padres, as always, are toying with doing something big. The Twins continue to have exceptionally high asks on their relief arms. The chance of the Guardians moving Kwan is higher than teams believed a week ago. The Phillies and Mets are being very aggressive. Some teams are looking at players controlled through 2027 and factoring in the possibility that labor discord could significantly impact that season. And the lack of star power that could move will be made up for by the volume of deals.

The Philadelphia Phillies agreed to a trade for Jhoan Duran, one of baseball’s best relievers, sources told ESPN on Wednesday, and paid a high price to the Minnesota Twins to get it done.

According to sources, Minnesota received catcher Eduardo Tait, regarded as a Top 100 prospect, and pitcher Mick Abel, a rookie with six years of team control. They’re ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, among the Phillies’ minor league prospects, per ESPN.

The 27-year-old Duran is known for two wipeout pitches — a fastball with an average velocity of 100.2 mph and a curveball he throws in the mid-80s — and he is among the most dominant closers. David Dombrowski, the Phillies’ head of baseball operations, again aggressively worked to plug a major hole in his bullpen.

The Phillies have a deep and powerful rotation and a lineup comprised of sluggers like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, but their bullpen has been a problem area, again. Jordan Romano, who was signed in the offseason, has struggled, and Jose Alvarado was suspended for 80 games under baseball’s performance-enhancing drug policy. Alvarado will be back to pitch in August, but because of his suspension, he is ineligible to pitch in the playoffs and World Series, if the Phillies get that far.

The Phillies have 16 blown saves this season, tied for fourth-most in the NL. And they’ve struggled to find a permanent closer, as five different players have multiple blown saves, tied for third-most in the majors, only trailing the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels, who both have six.

Dombrowski has a long track record of being willing to trade high prices in midseason deals. Last year, he aggressively moved for Carlos Estevez.

The Phillies have an older roster. Schwarber and catcher J.T. Realmuto are eligible for free agency at season’s end, and the general perception within the industry is that the team is in a window to win right now.

Tait, 18, is hitting .251 with 11 homers for Class-A Clearwater. Abel was the Phillies’ first-round pick in 2020 and progressed to the big leagues for the first time this season.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan and ESPN Research contributed to this report.