Connect with us

Published

on

The Week 2 NFL schedule for the 2021 season is stacked with great matchups, and we got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and, of course, final score picks.

Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big statistic to know for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe hands out helpful fantasy football and betting nuggets, as well. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 2 slate, including a meeting between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson on Sunday night, a battle between two AFC East rookie QBs and Patrick Peterson‘s return to Arizona. It all culminates with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Lions and the Packers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:
BUF-MIA | LAR-IND | NO-CAR
SF-PHI | LV-PIT | HOU-CLE
NE-NYJ | DEN-JAX | CIN-CHI
MIN-ARI | ATL-TB | DAL-LAC
TEN-SEA | KC-BAL | DET-GB

Thursday: WSH 30, NYG 29

1 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating:
67.3 | Spread: BUF -3.0 (47.5)

What to watch for: The Dolphins have yet to solve Josh Allen over the course of his career. In six career games, Allen is 5-1 against Miami with 1,552 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Bold prediction: Allen will throw at least three touchdown passes, and the Bills’ offense will get back on track. For whatever reason, Allen has had the most career success against the Dolphins. He has thrown for at least three TD passes in four of six games against Miami and has averaged 8.7 yards per attempt in those six games. Miami’s defense, especially the secondary, could cause issues for the Bills, but the Dolphins won’t be able to replicate the Steelers’ pass rush. — Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: Since last season’s Week 2 game at Miami, Allen’s QBR is 78, which ranks third behind Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. Allen also has thrown more touchdown passes in 16 starts (36) than he did in 28 starts (32) before that game.

Injuries: Bills | Dolphins

What to know for fantasy: Wideout Stefon Diggs had 15.9 fantasy points — nine catches for 69 yards — in the Bills’ Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh. Now, he’ll line up against Miami corner Xavien Howard, who allowed just 23 yards on four targets as the nearest defender last week, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. See Week 2 rankings.

Betting nugget: The Dolphins have covered five of the past seven meetings with Buffalo that did not occur in Week 17. Read more.

Getzenberg’s pick: Bills 31, Dolphins 24
Louis-Jacques’ pick: Bills 28, Dolphins 24
FPI prediction: BUF, 50.2% (by an average of 0.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: After Bills’ sloppy mistakes led to season-opening loss, what’s the message? ‘Don’t panic’Tagovailoa already clicking with receiver Waddle


1 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating:
64.3 | Spread: LAR -3.5 (48)

What to watch for: Aaron Donald vs. Quenton Nelson. It’s the NFL’s best interior defensive lineman against the league’s best guard. Nelson, an All-Pro in each of his first three seasons in the league, will have his hands full — and might need help, at times — against Donald, a three-time Defensive Player of the Year. “Every team schemes for a player like Aaron Donald,” Colts coach Frank Reich said. “You can’t scheme for him on every play because he’s not at the same spot every play. … He moves around. We have to be able to make some in-game adjustments.” — Mike Wells

Bold prediction: Quarterback Matthew Stafford will throw for more than 300 yards and four touchdown passes in a dominant offensive performance. Stafford is coming off a huge Week 1 performance that saw him pass for 321 yards and three touchdowns, with no interceptions, in a 20-point win over the Bears. The Colts’ secondary proved suspect in Week 1, allowing the Seahawks to pass for four touchdowns. Watch for Rams coach Sean McVay to dial up the passing game once again on Sunday. — Lindsey Thiry

Stat to know: Stafford hasn’t started a season 2-0 since 2017. If he tallies at least 317 passing yards against the Colts, he will have the most passing yards through the first two games of a season in his career.

Injuries: Rams | Colts

What to know for fantasy: Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has a touchdown — or the fantasy equivalent of a touchdown (six points) — as a pass-catcher in each of his past seven games. See Week 2 rankings.

Betting nugget: The Rams are 19-13 on the road since the McVay era began in 2017. Read more.

Thiry’s pick: Rams 32, Colts 17
Wells’ pick: Rams 27, Colts 17
FPI prediction: LAR, 55.5% (by an average of 2.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Ramsey leads entertaining cast of characters in Rams’ secondaryWentz won’t have a chance if Colts’ O-line doesn’t protect him betterStafford throws for 3 TDs as his big-play ability is on display in winning Rams debut


1 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating:
59.9 | Spread: NO -3.0 (44.5)

What to watch for: Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold was sacked only once but hit seven times by an average Jets defensive front. Now, he has to go up against a strong Saints front that sacked Aaron Rodgers twice, hit him seven times and forced three interceptions. Darnold himself said Saints DE Cameron Jordan can “wreck a game.” How well Darnold handles duress will be key for Carolina keeping pace. — David Newton

Bold prediction: Cornerback Bradley Roby will have an interception in his Saints debut after arriving in a trade from Houston last week. The Saints’ defense has taken the next-man-up mentality to the next level early this season, dominating despite several key players missing from last season. And they might need to do it again, with top CB Marshon Lattimore now dealing with a thumb injury. New Orleans’ secondary will be tested by Carolina’s dynamic receivers, which will be a key to this matchup. — Mike Triplett

Stat to know: Jameis Winston looks to lead the Saints to their first 2-0 start since 2013. In 10 career starts vs Panthers, he has a Total QBR of 40.

Injuries: Saints | Panthers

What to know for fantasy: Alvin Kamara has scored north of 19 fantasy points in five straight games against the Panthers, tallying at least 20 touches of multiple touchdowns in each of those contests. See Week 2 rankings.

Betting nugget: The Saints covered every game last season that went under the total (six), making them the only team in the league to do so. In Week 1, they covered easily, and the under once again cashed. Read more.

Triplett’s pick: Saints 23, Panthers 19
Newton’s pick: Saints 30, Panthers 17
FPI prediction: NO, 60% (by an average of 3.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Saints’ defense delivering on vow to be team’s identity without BreesHow McCaffery ‘opens up all of the possibilities’ of the Panthers’ offenseLattimore among key Saints dealing with injuriesReddick: Panthers’ D ‘put league on notice’ with six sacks


1 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating:
54.6 | Spread: SF -3.0 (49.5)

What to watch for: This matchup is all about the explosive plays. Philadelphia’s defense did not allow a single pass play of 20 or more yards in Week 1 against the Falcons, while the Niners’ offense was third in explosive pass plays against the Lions with five. Eagles corner Darius Slay likened 49ers receiver Deebo Samuel to a faster Anquan Boldin and said the key to success against such a dynamic offense is to read its keys and stay disciplined. — Tim McManus

Bold prediction: 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell will go over 100 rushing yards for the second straight week to begin his rookie season. The sixth-round pick was a relative unknown a week ago, then he set a record for rushing yards (104) by a Niner in his debut, against the Lions. The Eagles should be a bit better slowing the run than Detroit was, but this is a defense that looks vulnerable at the second level, which could make them susceptible to Mitchell’s one-cut-and-go ability. — Nick Wagoner

play

1:56

Field Yates and Mike Clay examine the fantasy outlook for 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell in Week 2.

Stat to know: Samuel had a career-high 189 receiving yards in Week 1. If he tallies 100 yards against the Eagles, he would have the most receiving yards in the first two games of the season by a 49ers player in team history.

Injuries: 49ers | Eagles

What to know for fantasy: From 2017 to 2020, the 49ers ranked fourth in running back fantasy points. Coach Kyle Shanahan manages a running back fantasy factory and will have to work more magic with Raheem Mostert out for the foreseeable future. See Week 2 rankings.

Betting nugget: Jimmy Garoppolo is 8-4 against the spread in regular-season road starts since 2019. Read more.

Wagoner’s pick: 49ers 30, Eagles 24
McManus’ pick: Eagles 27, 49ers 26
FPI prediction: SF, 52.8% (by an average of 1.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Without Mostert, Lance could be eventual key to 49ers’ run gameHurts’ statement game offers Eagles hope: ‘He’s the leader’Losing Verrett would make 49ers’ rise substantially more difficultHurts’ jersey sales surge 500% after Eagles’ Week 1 win


1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
49.8 | Spread: PIT -6.0 (47)

What to watch for: The Steelers confused Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense with their defensive versatility, moving safety Minkah Fitzpatrick all around the field. Look for them to weaponize versatility again with guys such as Fitzpatrick, Cam Sutton, Tre Norwood. And keep an eye on outside linebackers Melvin Ingram III, T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith trying to minimize tight end Darren Waller — a player who certainly has their attention after 19 targets a week ago. — Brooke Pryor

Bold prediction: Maxx Crosby and Watt will repeat their respective opening-week performances and both get two more sacks apiece. The Raiders’ and Steelers’ offensive lines are works in progress, but Crosby is coming off AFC Defensive Player of the Week honors, while the ink on Watt’s four-year, $112 million extension is still wet. Oh, to be a young pass-rusher in this game. — Paul Gutierrez

Stat to know: The past four meetings between these teams were decided by exactly three points. There has only been two series in NFL history featuring five straight games decided by exactly three points. Also, keep an eye on Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger; he needs three passing touchdowns to become the eighth NFL player with 400 passing touchdowns.

Injuries: Raiders | Steelers

What to know for fantasy: Steelers wideout Chase Claypool‘s ceiling captures headlines, but after Week 1, he has now failed to score more than 10 fantasy points in five of his past seven games. See Week 2 rankings.

Betting nugget: The Steelers have had just one losing ATS season at home since 2010 (3-5 ATS at home in 2017). Read more.

Gutierrez’s pick: Steelers 31, Raiders 23
Pryor’s pick: Steelers 24, Raiders 17
FPI prediction: PIT, 64.5% (by an average of 5.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Raiders’ Crosby not resting on Monday night laurels heading to PittsburghSteelers’ Watt caps ‘heck of a week’ by helping lead upset win over BillsSecond-half utilization of wide receivers allows Carr, Raiders to find rhythm … … Carr rallies Raiders past Ravens in wild OT win: ‘Hope this is a sign of things to come’


1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
45.8 | Spread: CLE -12.5 (48)

What to watch for: How will Houston quarterback Tyrod Taylor perform in his return to Cleveland? Baker Mayfield, who took over for Taylor as a rookie during the 2018 season, praised Taylor for his leadership and mentorship this week. Taylor would probably love nothing more than to show Mayfield another thing or two on Sunday. — Jake Trotter

Bold prediction: The Browns hold the Texans to fewer than 50 rushing yards. Taking out Taylor’s four carries for 40 yards, Houston ran for 120 yards on 37 carries in Week 1 (3.2 yards per carry) against Jacksonville. But it’s hard to see the game playing out the same way, and if the Texans are playing from behind for most of the tilt, it’s easy to see how Cleveland’s front seven dominates Houston’s backs. — Sarah Barshop

play

1:30

Stephania Bell analyzes why Odell Beckham Jr. has yet to return to the field after making significant progress in the offseason.

Stat to know: The Browns did not lose consecutive games at all last season. And they haven’t started 0-2 in a season since 2017. On the flipside, the Texans only won consecutive games once last season, and they have not started a season 2-0 since 2016.

Injuries: Texans | Browns

What to know for fantasy: Including the playoffs, Kareem Hunt has scored five times in his past five games. (He scored 13 times in his first 24 games with the Browns.) See Week 2 rankings.

Betting nugget: Baker Mayfield is just 4-8 ATS over his past 12 starts. Fantasy managers should take note, however, if you think the Browns will cover this week; in those four games, Mayfield has completed 73.9% of his passes for an average of 289 yards. Read more.

Barshop’s pick: Browns 27, Texans 17
Trotter’s pick: Browns 34, Texans 17
FPI prediction: CLE, 79.3% (by an average of 11.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Texans show blueprint for 2021 success, but not everything is perfectWhat did QBs Taylor, Mayfield get out of their year together in Cleveland?How Mayfield remade his body after a disappointing 2019No setback, but Browns rule out OBJ vs. Texans


1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
38.7 | Spread: NE -6.0 (43)

What to watch for: Here come the rookie quarterbacks. Zach Wilson and Mac Jones, coming off encouraging openers, meet for the first time in what should be a long personal rivalry. This is a new feel for the Jets-Patriots series, which was dominated by a veteran quarterback (Tom Brady) for two decades. The Jets have cycled through a handful of rookies over the years, but Jones is the Patriots’ first rookie starter since Drew Bledsoe in 1993. It’s the first time in the 62-year history of the rivalry that rookie QBs are starting against each other. — Rich Cimini

Bold prediction: The Patriots will make running back J.J. Taylor active as a result of rookie Rhamondre Stevenson‘s struggles in the season opener, and Taylor’s presence as a complement to Damien Harris and James White will be key against a Jets defense that blitzed 41.7% of the time in the opening week — the fifth-highest total in the NFL. Also, Jones will throw multiple touchdown passes and continue to refuse to keep the footballs when teammates attempt to hand them to him. — Mike Reiss

Stat to know: The last time a rookie quarterback beat the Patriots was … Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa last season in Week 15. The Patriots, however, were 9-0 in nine previous such games.

Injuries: Patriots | Jets

What to know for fantasy: Corey Davis was WR16 for an extended stretch last season (Weeks 8 to 15), and he showed out last week with 26.7 points against the Panthers. See Week 2 rankings.

Betting nugget: The over cashed in both Patriots-Jets games last season after being a winning ticket just once in the four seasons prior. Read more.

Reiss’ pick: Patriots 30, Jets 17
Cimini’s pick: Patriots 22, Jets 17
FPI prediction: NE, 64.8% (by an average of 5.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Will Belichick reduce Harris’ workload after fumble?Jets get help with WRs Crowder, Cole returningJets LT Becton to miss at least 4-6 weeks after dislocating knee capJets’ protection issues could be pain in neck for QB Wilson


1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
34.3 | Spread: DEN -6.0 (45.5)

What to watch for: The Jaguars’ offensive tackles struggled last season, with Cam Robinson and Jawaan Taylor combining to allow 27 sacks, per ESPN Stats & Information research. The duo got off to a solid start against Houston, but this week will be significantly harder. Even if Bradley Chubb doesn’t play or is limited, Von Miller will be hard to handle. Expect the Jaguars to keep tight end Chris Manhertz in to help the tackles. — Mike DiRocco

Bold prediction: The Broncos’ defense will have six combined sacks and turnovers. Denver won’t load up on the blitzes against Jaguars rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence, and while the Broncos certainly see Lawrence’s obvious talents, he will face of a variety of four-man pressures backed by a variety of coverage looks from Vic Fangio’s defense. And if the Broncos keep the Jaguars in difficult down-and-distance situations, Lawrence could have a tough time finding room to work. — Jeff Legwold

Stat to know: Jacksonville, dating back to last season, is on the verge of losing 17 straight games, which would be tied for the fourth-longest losing streak since the merger in 1970. The Jags have allowed at least 20 points in each game of the skid.

Injuries: Broncos | Jaguars

What to know for fantasy: Jacksonville running back James Robinson scored at least 10 fantasy points in every game last season as an unknown resource. He let managers down with just 8.4 points in Week 1, and he faces a Broncos team this week that held Saquon Barkley to 26 yards on 10 carries last weekend. See Week 2 rankings.

Betting nugget: Teddy Bridgewater is 22-3 ATS on the road as a starter, but one of his rare loss against the spread came in Week 2 of last season at Tampa Bay, when he played for the Panthers. Read more.

Legwold’s pick: Broncos 30, Jaguars 16
DiRocco’s pick: Broncos 27, Jaguars 13
FPI prediction: DEN, 62.7% (by an average of 4.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Shirt on or shirt off, elite-version Miller has returnedOpening loss to Texans shows pass rush still a problem for Jaguars Broncos place CB Darby, WR Jeudy on IR … … Bridgewater makes the first impression Broncos hoped to see


1 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating:
32.5 | Spread: CHI -2.5 (45)

What to watch for: Justin Fields is always the center of attention. The Bears rookie quarterback played five snaps and scored a rushing touchdown in Chicago’s Week 1 loss to the Rams. What will Fields do for an encore? The entire city of Chicago is on edge over the Bears. Veteran starter Andy Dalton — formerly of the Bengals — will need to play exceptionally well to hold onto the job. Even that might not be enough to fend off Fields. — Jeff Dickerson

Bold prediction: The Bengals will have two wide receivers with at least 75 receiving yards, and look for the Cincinnati to attack the right sideline. Chicago surrendered four completions for 138 yards and a touchdown down the right sideline against the Rams, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. — Ben Baby

Stat to know: The Bengals have the NFL’s worst road record of 3-20-1 (.146) since 2018. Quarterback Joe Burrow is looking for the first road win of his career; he is 0-5-1 with a Total QBR of 45 in six career road starts.

Injuries: Bengals | Bears

What to know for fantasy: Think the Bears, a three-point favorite, will win this game? In Chicago’s final three wins of 2020, David Montgomery averaged 146 total yards per game on his way to 24.6 fantasy points per game. See Week 2 rankings.

Betting nugget: Chicago quarterback Andy Dalton is 10-19 ATS in his past 29 starts. Read more.

Baby’s pick: Bengals 28, Bears 24
Dickerson’s pick: Bears 21, Bengals 20
FPI prediction: CHI, 54.2% (by an average of 1.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: How Burrow’s expectations for himself, Bengals are creating successBears offer small glimpse of Fields’ potentialHiggins to swap number: ‘I’m not Ochocinco 2.0’


4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating:
58.4 | Spread: ARI -3.5 (50.5)

What to watch for: Sure, all eyes will be on Kyler Murray just because of his unpredictability and excitement levels. But the most important aspect to watch on Sunday is how the Cardinals’ front seven pressures the Vikings’ offensive line and whether it can get to Kirk Cousins, who threw for 351 yards and two touchdowns last week. If the Cards’ defense plays like it did in Tennessee, and Chandler Jones goes for another few sacks, then Minnesota’s offense will be stuck in the mud, much like the Titans’ was. — Josh Weinfuss

Bold prediction: Jones and J.J. Watt will each tally two sacks. Penalties won’t plague Minnesota’s offense like they did in Week 1; that responsibility belongs to the Cardinals’ defensive front, which will wreak havoc against the Vikings’ struggling O-line. Unlike the Titans, Minnesota will attempt to help its tackles against Jones, but it won’t be enough. — Courtney Cronin

Stat to know: Murray threw for a career-high four touchdown passes in Week 1 versus the Titans, with three of those coming on third down. He is the first Cardinals player with four pass touchdowns and a rushing score in a game since 1962 (Charley Johnson).

Injuries: Vikings | Cardinals

What to know for fantasy: Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen has seen an end zone target in nine straight games. (He has nine touchdowns over that run.) See Week 2 rankings.

Betting nugget: Unders are 10-2-1 in Arizona games played in the first month of the season since 2018. Read more.

Cronin’s pick: Cardinals 30, Vikings 17
Weinfuss’ pick: Cardinals 34, Vikings 17
FPI prediction: ARI, 61.1% (by an average of 4.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Have the Vikings finally found their No. 3 receiver?Watt done ‘tiptoeing’ around his trainingJones: Contract will come as sacks pile upA healthy Murray makes Cardinals a contender


4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating:
50.6 | Spread: TB -12.5 (52)

What to watch for: It’s rare that a team manages to come away with a victory being minus-three in the turnover margin, but the Buccaneers did just that against the Cowboys in Week 1. Cutting down on those mistakes against Atlanta will be key. On the other side of things, how long will Falcons coach Arthur Smith stick with the run against the league’s top-ranked run defense over the past two years? Especially since the Cowboys didn’t need it last week after getting chunk plays through the air against a Tampa Bay secondary that had issues tackling. The Bucs also will be without starting cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting. — Jenna Laine

Bold prediction: Matt Ryan will have a 300-yard, three-touchdown day against Tampa Bay — but it still results in a loss. The Falcons will find a way to get on track offensively; Ryan had 621 yards and five touchdowns in two games against the Buccaneers last season. But Tom Brady will have a 300-yard day of his own to counteract Atlanta’s offensive discovery and send the Falcons to 0-2. — Michael Rothstein

Stat to know: Brady has a career record of 8-0 against the Falcons — including a win in Super Bowl LI. According to Elias Sports Bureau, Brady looks to become the sixth QB to go 9-0 or better against a single team since starts were first tracked in 1950.

Injuries: Falcons | Buccaneers

What to know for fantasy: Playoffs included, wideout Antonio Brown has run more than 25 routes eight times in his Buccaneers career, including last week with 36 routes. Tampa has won five of those games, and AB has found the end zone in all five. See Week 2 rankings.

Betting nugget: Weeks 8 and 9 last season were the last time Tampa Bay failed to cover consecutive games (playoffs included). Read more.

Rothstein’s pick: Buccaneers 35, Falcons 24
Laine’s pick: Buccaneers 34, Falcons 21
FPI prediction: TB, 78.1% (by an average of 11.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Ryan: Super Bowl loss has ‘no bearing’ on game vs. Brady, BuccaneersBucs RB Jones to start despite Week 1 benchingPatterson — now clearly a running back — finds a role in Atlanta’s offenseBrady trolling Falcons ahead of Week 2 matchup?


4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
61.9 | Spread: WSH -3.5 (40.5)

What to watch for: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert will be looking for Austin Ekeler through the air this week after the running back didn’t have a catch in Week 1. Los Angeles coach Brandon Staley has said the team needs to work Ekeler into the passing game. On the other side, the Cowboys need a big day from their offense to avoid an 0-2 start. — Shelley Smith

Bold prediction: Dak Prescott will not throw for 400 yards. Not bold enough? In the past four games that he has started and finished, he has thrown for at least 403 yards. He is the first player in league history with four 400-yard games in a five-game span. He has eight 400-yard passing games since 2016, most in the NFL. But the Cowboys are just 1-3 in those four games and know that is not a long-term formula for success. Maybe he throws for just 399 yards instead. — Todd Archer

Stat to know: The Cowboys are looking to avoid their first 0-2 start since 2010; the only time they have started 0-2 with both games on the road was in 1989. And while the Chargers have won the past three games versus Dallas, they are 0-3 against Mike McCarthy-led teams.

Injuries: Cowboys | Chargers

What to know for fantasy: The Cowboys are a three-point underdog, so Prescott managers have their opponent right where they want them. In his past three losses, Prescott is averaging 57.7 passes and 30.7 fantasy points per game. See Week 2 rankings.

Betting nugget: The Chargers covered their final two home games of 2020 after failing to cover seven of their previous nine games at their place. Read more.

Archer’s pick: Chargers 27, Cowboys 23
Smith’s pick: Chargers 34, Cowboys 23
FPI prediction: LAC, 50.2% (by an average of 0.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Elliott shows versatility, but Cowboys need better run gameChargers’ Williams looking to step up in contract yearCowboys defensive end Lawrence will miss 6-8 weeks with broken foot, sources sayClutch keep-away drive allows Chargers rare drama-free victoryCowboys’ McCarthy: ‘A challenge’ when O-line is in flux again


4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating:
56.5 | Spread: SEA -6.0 (54)

What to watch for: Seattle’s defense must be licking its chops after watching the Titans allow six sacks in their blowout loss to Arizona in Week 1. The Seahawks got to Carson Wentz early and often in their opener. Now, their pass-rushers will have the added advantage of the crowd noise at Lumen Field, which could be as loud as ever with fans in attendance for the first time in a regular-season game since December 2019. — Brady Henderson

Bold prediction: The Titans will score a touchdown on their first drive. That’s saying a lot considering how Tennessee only gained a total of four yards on their first four drives last week. The Seahawks are playing in their 2021 home opener at Lumen Field, where they only allowed opposing offenses to score a touchdown on the opening drive twice last season. — Turron Davenport

Stat to know: The Titans have allowed more than 35 points in their past three regular-season games. And with Russell Wilson putting on a four-touchdown performance in Week 1, it is entirely possible that Titans streak continues. Wilson followed up the 2020 opener with five passing touchdowns in consecutive games.

Injuries: Titans | Seahawks

What to know for fantasy: In the Titans’ past five losses (playoffs included), Derrick Henry has touched the ball 100 times but has not scored once. See Week 2 rankings.

Betting nugget: The Titans have failed to cover three straight regular-season games twice in the past calendar year (includes an active streak). Read more.

Davenport’s pick: Seahawks 28, Titans 24
Henderson’s pick: Seahawks 30, Titans 24.
FPI prediction: SEA, 70.5% (by an average of 7.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Titans’ Hooker to IR after injuring foot in openerTaylor, Seahawks pass rush show that they’re as good as advertised‘It is a wake-up call for us’: Titans’ offensive line can’t keep getting outmuscledAlready ‘cooking’: Seahawks’ Wilson-Waldron partnership gets off to fast start


8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Matchup rating:
84.8 | Spread: KC -3.5 (54.5)

What to watch for: Patrick Mahomes has diced up the Ravens’ defense in three meetings, with the Chiefs averaging 31.3 points per game. Baltimore’s defense looked vulnerable Monday night, when it allowed 33 points in Las Vegas. But the Ravens have never given up more than 30 points in each of their first two games of a season. — Jamison Hensley

Bold prediction: Mahomes will complete six throws of at least 20 yards. Those plays are always there for him against a Ravens team that blitzes a lot but leaves itself vulnerable to big throws. He has 16 such plays in three career starts against the Ravens, who come into this game with a depleted secondary. — Adam Teicher

play

1:30

Stephen A. Smith sounds off on Lamar Jackson’s comments about the Ravens’ matchup with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Week 2.

Stat to know: Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have the two highest Total QBRs among quarterbacks to appear in 10-plus prime-time games since the metric began in 2006. Mahomes has an eight-game winning streak in prime-time contests, the longest active streak of any quarterback. Jackson is 0-3 in his career versus the Chiefs, largely due to accuracy issues, failing to complete 55% of his passes in any of those three matchups.

Injuries: Chiefs | Ravens

What to know for fantasy: Chiefs wideout Tyreek Hill has 310.6 fantasy points over his past 12 games (playoffs included). How good is that? Texas wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins had 287.8 points in 16 games last season. See Week 2 rankings.

Betting nugget: Mahomes is 8-3 ATS for his career in September. Read more.

Teicher’s pick: Chiefs 30, Ravens 20
Hensley’s pick: Chiefs 27, Ravens 24
FPI prediction: KC, 55.7% (by an average of 2.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: A promise to his father: Why Orlando Brown left the Ravens for the ChiefsRavens promote veteran RB Freeman to active rosterChiefs, Mahomes know it can’t be just Hill and KelceJackson says he’s not dwelling on past losses as Ravens prepare to face Mahomes, Chiefs


Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
Matchup rating:
37.6 | Spread: GB -11.0 (48)

What to watch for: How will the Lions try to defend Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense? The Saints blitzed him just twice and focused their efforts on taking away Davante Adams & Co. Will that serve as a blueprint for future opponents? What the Lions do — and how well they do it — might help determine what kind of coverages Rodgers sees throughout the season. — Rob Demovsky

Bold prediction: The Lions will pull off their first upset of the Dan Campbell and Jared Goff era. Yes, the odds of this happening are slim, but I’ll pick Detroit to win at Lambeau Field against a vulnerable Green Bay team. Detroit’s running back duo of D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams will give the Packers problems, since most teams in the NFC North aren’t used to facing a Lions team with a solid ground game. — Eric Woodyard

Stat to know: The Packers’ offense was bad in Week 1, but maybe there’s a silver lining. In two games following a 25-point loss under coach Matt Lafleur, Rodgers has thrown four touchdown passes in each.

Injuries: Lions | Packers

What to know for fantasy: Rodgers had no touchdown passes and two interceptions Week 1 at the Saint. He has never had back-to-back games with zero passing TDs as a starter. See Week 2 rankings.

Betting nugget: The over hit in all three divisional games at Lambeau last season (1-4 in the other five regular-season games Green Bay hosted). Read more.

Woodyard’s pick: Lions 21, Packers 17
Demovsky’s pick: Packers 23, Lions 17
FPI prediction: GB, 67.4% (by an average of 6.5 points)

Matchup must-reads:Don’t call it a blueprint (yet), but Saints showed how to give Rodgers fitsGoff earns admirers in comeback attempt vs. 49ersLions CB Okudah out for year with ruptured Achilles

Continue Reading

Sports

The All-Stars who are halfway to history in 2025

Published

on

By

The All-Stars who are halfway to history in 2025

This year, the MLB All-Star Game isn’t just a collection of the game’s biggest stars, but a glimpse at baseball history in the making.

The 2025 Midsummer Classic marks the unofficial midway point of some of the greatest seasons the sport has ever seen.

Will Home Run Derby champion Cal Raleigh — aka the Big Dumper — set a new standard for slugging catchers? Will Shohei Ohtani score more runs in a season than any living person has ever seen? Will Aaron Judge … top Aaron Judge?

As Major League Baseball’s best convene in Atlanta, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield break down 11 players who are halfway to history. For each player, ESPN MLB reporters Jorge Castillo and Jesse Rogers asked one of their fellow All-Stars to weigh in on their accomplishments, as they get set to take the field together at Truist Park.


Cal Raleigh: Greatest season for a catcher — ever

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Well, we can add Home Run Derby champion to the list after Raleigh’s impressive showing Monday night. With 38 home runs through 96 team games, Raleigh is on pace for 64, which would break Judge’s American League record of 62 set in 2022. That’s the big one. There are a whole bunch of other records in play: most home runs by a switch hitter (Mickey Mantle, 54); most home runs by a primary catcher (Salvador Perez, 48); most multihomer games in a season (Raleigh has eight, the record is 11); and even highest catcher WAR in a season (Mike Piazza with 8.7 bWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 8.4; Buster Posey with 9.8 fWAR, Raleigh is on pace for 10.4). In other words, he could have the greatest season ever for a catcher.

How he’s doing it: Raleigh has always been better against right-handed pitching, but he has been absolutely crushing lefties in 2025, hitting .337/.385/.861 with 16 home runs in only 101 at-bats. Overall, he also has been much better against velocity. From 2022 to 2024, he slugged .418 against pitches 93 mph or faster; this year, he’s slugging .664. — Schoenfield

An All-Star’s take: “It’s wild. I mean, he’s having a crazy year and it’s awesome that he’s doing it from behind the plate. And what he’s doing is unbelievable. It’s hard to describe. It’s amazing to see.” — Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman


Aaron Judge: Most total bases since the Great Depression

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Judge closed out the first half with a quiet day against the Chicago Cubs but is still on pace to record 435 total bases this season. You could pick any one of a dozen categories in which Judge is on a historic pace, but this simple old-school measure will do just fine. The record is held by Babe Ruth (457 in 1921), so Judge would have to somehow pick up the pace to surpass that. But 435 would still be epic. The last player to reach that number was Jimmie Foxx in 1932.

How he’s doing it: Judge has become more aggressive at the plate without sacrificing contact or power. But it’s not only ball-in-play volume: He’s hitting an incredible .425 when getting the bat on the ball, which fuels his MLB-leading .355 batting average. That BABIP would be the third-highest ever if Judge maintained it, which obviously affects the total bases column. So too does Judge’s intentional walks pace (41). He’d be only the fourth player to top 40. — Doolittle

An All-Star’s take: “He started off hot this year, which normally in years past, he doesn’t start off hot like he did this year. And now you see it. He always finishes strong. I mean, I don’t know what he ends up with. Hopefully he hits like 70 homers. That’d be sick.” — New York Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon


Shohei Ohtani: One run scored for every game

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Although his pace has slowed a bit the past couple of weeks, Ohtani has scored 89 runs in 94 games, giving him a chance at a run scored per game. Ohtani had been on pace for 160 runs, which only Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig have done since 1900. He’s still on pace for 150 runs, which only Ted Williams and Jeff Bagwell have done since World War II. The last player with more runs scored than games played, with at least 100 games played: Rickey Henderson in 1985 (146 runs in 143 games). If that’s not enough to impress you, there is the chance for a second straight 50-homer season and a fourth career MVP award. If the latter happens, he’ll join Barry Bonds as the only player with more than three MVP awards.

How he’s doing it: It helps to be a leadoff man with power, as Ohtani leads the National League in both plate appearances and home runs. The first three months, Ohtani also had a great trio hitting behind him in Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith, but his runs scored pace has dropped off in July as he has hit just .175, and Betts and Freeman have also slumped. — Schoenfield

An All-Star’s take: “As his teammate and fellow competitor, to see what he does on both sides of the field, it’s incredible. How much power he has as a hitter. He’s got 30-plus homers already at the break. He’s hitting .300 or whatever. And, yeah, he’s going out there on the mound and throwing 102, striking out the side. And these are his rehab games. He’s not even all the way back yet, full-go yet. It’s incredible to watch. Fortunately, I get to see all the work he puts in every day, which is really cool. It’s really special what he’s doing.” — Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith


Paul Skenes: Two sub-2.00 ERA seasons before turning 25

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skenes’ ERA at the break is an NL-best 2.01. His career mark is 1.98 over 43 starts. There is all kinds of history around this level of stifling run prevention. As it stands, Skenes joins Ed Walsh, Addie Joss and Mordecai “Three Finger” Brown with at least 40 starts and a sub-2.00 career ERA in the AL or NL. If Skenes drops his 2025 number below 2.00, he’d be the 31st pitcher to have two or more sub-2.00 ERA seasons of at least 20 starts. Only two of those pitchers did it by age 23: Walter Johnson and Ed Reulbach, both more than 100 years ago.

How he’s doing it: Skenes’ strikeout rate (9.7 per nine innings) is down 1.8 from last year. Yet his FIP (an NL-best 2.41) is actually better because of his league-best homer rate (0.4 per nine innings). Simply put, Skenes is learning how to manage the pure dominance of his arsenal, revving it up when needed. Skenes is not exactly pitching to contact — his stuff is just too good to not miss a lot of bats — but his pitch efficiency is better, and that’s getting him deeper into games. His style has evolved, but one big thing has remained steady: Nobody can score off him. — Doolittle

An All-Star’s take: “Obviously, the first thing that stands out is his stuff, right? And the second thing you look at is the composure. He’s kind of new to the league and just from watching some of his preparation, his composure on the mound, I feel like that’s what makes him successful. He started to add a couple of new pitches to his arsenal and it’s going to make him tougher. He’s got the military background, so I think that’s where he gets a lot of his discipline and everything from. He’s challenging, but it is fun to compete against him.” — St. Louis Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan


Tarik Skubal: Top five strikeout-to-walk season of all time

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Skubal has struck out 9.56 batters for every one he has walked. Only four qualifying pitchers have ever done better: Phil Hughes (11.63, 2014), Bret Saberhagen (11.00, 1994), Cliff Lee (10.28, 2010) and Curt Schilling (9.58, 2002). The leaderboard is dominated by wild-card era pitchers, with its heightened whiff rates. But according to FanGraphs’ plus-statistics, which compare numbers to league averages, Skubal’s index of 368 ranks 18th all time. His mastery works in any era.

How he’s doing it: Skubal has already had two games this season in which he has struck out 13 batters on fewer than 100 pitches. Simply put, his command keeps him in the zone more than any qualifying pitcher (49.7%, per FanGraphs). But it also allows him to pitch outside of it on his terms. To wit: Skubal also leads the majors in inducing swings on pitches out of the zone (37.2%). It’s a lethal combination. — Doolittle

An All-Star’s take: “Even on game days, he’s working before the game like he’s not pitching that day. Even on the off days, he’s at the field doing something. He does a whole routine. I faced him in spring training and was looking for one pitch — when that pitch came, I didn’t hit it. He knows what hitters are looking for.” — Detroit Tigers outfielder Javier Baez


The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Before the 2023 season, there had been only four 40-homer/40-steal seasons in big league history, and the 40/50 club was memberless. Now Crow-Armstrong is on a 42-homer, 46-steal pace at the break. He could join Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 homers, 73 steals in 2023) and Shohei Ohtani (54 homers, 59 steals last season) in one or both clubs, giving us a three-year run of expanding membership. This one would be the most stunning of all. PCA entered the season with 10 homers, 29 steals and an 83 OPS+ in his career. His rise has been flat-out stunning.

How he’s doing it: The steals part of Crow-Armstrong’s game was already there, though he’s picked up the pace in 2025, already matching his 27 steals from last season. Any time he reaches safely, he’s a threat to take an extra base. That is unless he’s trotting around the bags after mashing yet another homer. Crow-Armstrong is hitting the ball harder more often, getting more balls in the air and pulling it more frequently. All of this could explain an isolated power uptick, but nothing really can explain the degree to which PCA has lifted off. — Doolittle

An All-Star’s take: “He’s a much better defender than me. He has a much better arm. He’s a really complete player. I don’t think I would have guessed he would have the power numbers he’s showing this year, but I guess people would have said that about me too. His ability to pull the ball in the air has been the difference for him, I think. He hits the ball so hard, all over the stadium.” — Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll


Junior Caminero: 40 home runs in age-21 season

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: In his first full season in the majors, Caminero enters the All-Star break with 23 home runs in the 97 games the Tampa Bay Rays have played, giving him a season pace of 38. Though he turned 22 earlier this month, Caminero is in his age-21 season, so he can join Eddie Mathews (47 in 1953) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (41 in 2019) as the only players to reach 40 home runs at that age.

How he’s doing it: Caminero has the second-quickest bat in the majors via Statcast’s bat tracking measurements and he uses that bat speed to punish fastballs. He’s slugging .692 against four-seam fastballs — and .793 against four-seam fastballs 95-plus mph. He has received some help from the Rays’ temporary home stadium, George Steinbrenner Field, hitting .316 with 14 home runs at home. That’s worth noting as the Rays will have a road-heavy schedule through the end of August. — Schoenfield

An All-Star’s take: “He’s a special talent. I mean, his bat speed’s insane. I saw him in spring training [with the Rays], basically, but, yeah, he’s a special talent. Hard-working kid. I’m excited to watch him. They’re mature at-bats. He came up, I was hurt during the playoffs in ’23, and I thought he had some of the most mature, calm at-bats I’d seen for a young kid. Especially to come up in the playoffs, he didn’t let the situation get too big. I think he’s going to be here for a long time, a lot of years.” — San Diego Padres (and former Tampa Bay Rays) reliever Jason Adam


Corbin Carroll: 40 home runs, 20 triples, 20 stolen bases

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: The third-year speedster is back in the All-Star Game after failing to be selected last year, and showing again why he’s one of the most exciting players in the majors. He has an outside shot at becoming the first player with 40 home runs, 20 triples and 20 stolen bases in the same season. Yes, that’s a bit of statistical free-for-all, but it displays Carroll’s power, speed and hustle. Those odds were hurt when he sat out a couple of weeks because of a chip fracture in his left wrist, but in his first 79 games, he had 21 home runs, 10 triples and 11 stolen bases. Even if those numbers are out of reach, he could be the third member of the 35/15/20 club, joining Chuck Klein and Willie Mays.

How he’s doing it: We mentioned hustle, because the triples are the key category here, and Carroll is the best triples hitter in the majors in a long time, hitting 10 as a rookie in 2023 and 14 in 2024, leading the NL both seasons. He also has tweaked his swing and is hitting the ball harder this season and hitting it more often in the air, so he should soar past his previous career high of 25 home runs. — Schoenfield

An All-Star’s take: “There is no hole, really. It’s hard to find new ways to get him out. He’s one of the best in baseball. He’s so quick and twitchy. I don’t get many fastballs by him.” — San Francisco Giants right-hander Logan Webb


The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Witt’s doubles pace has ebbed a little, perhaps in part because some of the balls that were swelling his two-bagger column earlier have been leaving the yard of late. Still, Witt is on pace for 53 doubles, which would be the most by an American Leaguer in six years. That number would also challenge Hal McRae’s franchise record of 54 doubles set in 1977. Witt’s overall numbers aren’t quite as spectacular as last season, but he remains a top-five MVP candidate in the AL. Witt hasn’t gone on a true heater yet this season, but MLB pitchers beware: He has come out of the All-Star break in each of the past two seasons and gone on an extended tear.

How he’s doing it: Everything about Witt’s game — durability, aggressiveness, contact, swing plain, speed, home venue — suggests a player who is annually going to rank near the top of the charts in doubles, among many other categories. If only he didn’t hit so many triples and homers. — Doolittle

An All-Star’s take: “I can’t get him out. It’s just a tough at-bat. And [he] plays the game really, really hard. Some of the stars look cool and play it a little bit slower. Bobby is always playing the game really hard. A single is a victory against him, but he’s going to turn it into a double most of the time.” — Detroit Tigers right-hander Casey Mize


Kyle Tucker: 30 home runs, 40 stolen bases, 120 runs scored

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: With 17 home runs, 22 stolen bases and 68 runs scored, Tucker is showing Cubs fans the all-around brilliance that earned him a fourth consecutive All-Star selection. That puts him on pace to join the exclusive club of 30 homers, 40 stolen bases and 120 runs — which has only 11 members (with Bobby Bonds having done it twice). At a minimum, Tucker would love to join the 30/30 club, which he just missed in 2023 with 29 home runs and 30 stolen bases.

How he’s doing it: Tucker’s career high in runs scored is 97, so joining the explosive Cubs offense has helped in that department. So has moving up in the lineup: He has mostly hit second for the Cubs after often hitting fifth for the Houston Astros (at least until last season). He has been a little more aggressive stealing bases to give him a shot at 40, and does it with great success, getting caught only once so far. — Doolittle

An All-Star’s take: “He stays in there against lefties, knows how to use the whole field. And knows what a strike is. He stays in the zone a long time. I got lucky this year. It was the one game he missed. He’s one of the tougher left-handed outs.” — Washington Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore


Byron Buxton: The perfect stolen-base season

The most impressive thing he could accomplish: Buxton just hit for the cycle and — knock on wood — he has been healthy so far, so he’s on track for a career high in many categories, including his first 30-homer season. But the fun number: He’s 17-for-17 in stolen-base attempts. Only six players have swiped at least 20 bases in a season without getting caught, with Trea Turner’s 30-for-30 with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2023 the single-season high.

How he’s doing it: Buxton has always been a terrific high percentage base stealer, including a 29-for-30 mark in 2017 and a 90% success rate in his career, but the surprising thing about his 2025 totals is perhaps that he’s even stealing bases at all, given all the injuries in his career. It would be easy for the Minnesota Twins to just shut him down on the basepaths — much like the Los Angeles Angels did years ago with Mike Trout — but the 31-year-old Buxton is running more than he has since he was 23. — Schoenfield

An All-Star’s take: “He’s one of the best players in the game when he’s healthy and when he’s playing out there. I think the biggest thing I’ve noticed from him is that it seems like his internal clock is just at a pace this year. It’s not like it flashes where he’s going crazy and then he’s backing off. It’s consistent. It’s just that consistent heartbeat. It’s like he’s running a marathon at an insane pace. He’s going to run a sub-three-hour marathon or something. He’s cruising along and it’s just fun to watch him play.” — Minnesota Twins right-hander Joe Ryan

Continue Reading

Sports

Is it the coach or the program? Ranking CFB coaches while factoring in expectations

Published

on

By

Is it the coach or the program? Ranking CFB coaches while factoring in expectations

Back in May, ESPN’s team of college football reporters voted on the sport’s best coaches for 2025. The results were about as you would expect: Start with the three active guys who have most recently won national titles (Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Ohio State’s Ryan Day, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney), move on to guys with recent top-five finishes or national title game appearances (Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, Penn State’s James Franklin), then squeeze in a couple of long-term overachievers at the end (Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell).

The rankings made plenty of sense, but I couldn’t help but notice that the top eight coaches on the list all work for some of the richest, most well-supported programs in the country. There are some epic pressures associated with leading these programs — just ask Day — but there are also major advantages. It might only take a good head coach to do great things in those jobs, while at programs with smaller alumni bases or lesser historic track records, it might take a great coach to do merely good things. They’re such different jobs that it’s almost impossible to even know how to compare the performance of, say, Matt Campbell to Steve Sarkisian. Could Campbell have led Texas to back-to-back CFP semifinals? Could Sark have brought ISU its first two AP top-15 finishes?

The May rankings made me want to see if there were a way to apply stats to the conversation. If you think about it, we’re basically measuring two things when we’re gauging coach performance: overall quality and quality relative to the expectations of the job. I thought it would be fun to come up with a blend of those two things and see what the results told us.

Performance versus expectation

Gauging overall performance is easy enough. You could simply look at win percentage, and it would tell you quite a bit. From 2015 to 2024, the active coaches with the best FBS win percentages (minimum 30 games) were Day (.870), Lanning (.854), Swinney (.850) and Smart (.847). All ranked high in the May rankings. I tend to want to get fancy and use my SP+ ratings whenever possible, and they tell a similar tale. Looking at average SP+ ratings for the past decade, the top active coaches are Day (30.4), Smart (27.0), Lanning (22.3), Swinney (21.9), Franklin (20.3) and Freeman (19.0). They’re all in the May top 10 too.

Again, though, all of those coaches are employed by college football royalty. (Granted, Swinney gets bonus points for helping Clemson turn into college football royalty, but still.) Isn’t it more impressive to win 11 regular-season games at Indiana, as Curt Cignetti did in 2024, than to go 10-4 like Swinney did? Isn’t it probably harder to finish 12th in SP+ at SMU, as Rhett Lashlee did in 2024, than to finish fifth like Franklin did?

I’ve begun to incorporate teams’ performance against long-term averages into my preseason SP+ projections, and it seems we could use a very similar concept to evaluate coach performances. For each year someone is a head coach, we could compare his team’s SP+ rating for that season to the school’s average from the 20 previous years. (If the school is newer to FBS and doesn’t have a 20-year average, we can use whatever average exists to date. And for a program’s first FBS season, we can simply compare the team’s SP+ rating to the overall average for first-year programs.)

By this method, the 10 best single-season coaching performances of the past 20 years include Art Briles at Baylor in 2013-14, Jim Harbaugh at Stanford in 2010, Mark Mangino at Kansas in 2007, Bobby Petrino at Louisville in 2006, Greg Schiano at Rutgers in 2006 and Jamey Chadwell at Coastal Carolina in 2020 — legendary seasons of overachievement — plus perhaps lesser-remembered performances such as Gary Andersen at Utah State in 2012, Matt Wells at Utah State in 2018 and Brian Kelly at Cincinnati in 2007.

As far as single-season overachievement goes, that’s a pretty good list. And if we look at a longer-term sample — coaches who have led FBS programs for at least nine of the past 20 years — here are the 15 best performance versus baseline averages.

(Note: I’m looking only at performances within the past 20 years, so Nick Saban’s work at LSU (2000-04) or Michigan State (1995-99), for instance, isn’t included. I also went with nine years instead of 10 so Smart’s current nine-year run at Georgia could be included in the sample.)

Best performance vs. historic baseline averages for the past 20 years (min. nine seasons):

1. Chris Petersen, Boise State (2006-13) and Washington (2014-19): +12.8 points above historic baseline

2. Art Briles, Houston (2005-07) and Baylor (2008-15): +12.8

3. Gary Pinkel, Missouri (2005-15): +12.5

4. Nick Saban, Alabama (2007-23): +10.7

5. Jeff Monken, Army (2014-24): +10.3

6. Willie Fritz, Georgia Southern (2014-15), Tulane (2016-23) and Houston (2024): +10.0

7. Lance Leipold, Buffalo (2015-20) and Kansas (2021-24): +9.5

8. Bobby Petrino, Louisville (2005-06), Arkansas (2008-11), Western Kentucky (2013) and Louisville (2014-18): +9.5

9. Gary Patterson, TCU (2005-21): +8.6

10. Jim Harbaugh, Stanford (2007-10) and Michigan (2015-23): +8.5

11. Blake Anderson, Arkansas State (2014-20) and Utah State (2021-23): +8.5

12. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina (2005-15): +8.2

13. Greg Schiano, Rutgers (2005-11 and 2020-24): +7.8

14. Jeff Brohm, Western Kentucky (2014-16), Purdue (2017-22) and Louisville (2023-24): +7.7

15. David Cutcliffe, Duke (2008-21): +7.7

If we are looking for pure overachievement and aren’t in the mood to reward coaches for winning at schools that always win, this is again a pretty good list. Petersen was spectacular at both Boise State and Washington, while Briles, Pinkel, Monken and Patterson all won big at schools that hadn’t won big in quite a while. (Monken, in fact, is still winning big.) Blake Anderson’s presence surprised me, but most of the names here are extremely well regarded. And Saban’s presence at No. 4, despite coaching at one of the bluest of blue-blood programs, is a pretty good indicator of just how special his reign at Alabama was.

Still, looking only at performance against expectations obviously sells coaches like Saban and Smart short. Saban is probably the best head coach in the sport’s history but ranks only fourth on the above list. Meanwhile, Smart has overachieved by only 6.0 points above the historic baseline in his nine seasons at Georgia thanks to the high bar predecessor Mark Richt set. But he has also won two national titles, overcoming Georgia’s history of falling just short and at least briefly surpassing Saban as well. If our goal is to measure coaching prowess, we need to account for raw quality too.


The best coaches of the past 20 years

If we combine raw SP+ averages with this performance versus baseline average, we can come up with a pretty decent overall coach rating. We can debate the weights involved, but here’s what an overall rating looks like if we use 60% performance versus baseline and 40% SP+ average:

I always like to say that numbers make great starting points for a conversation, and this is a pretty good starting point. Anyone reading this would probably tweak this list to suit their own preferences, and while it probably isn’t surprising that Pinkel is in the top 20, seeing him fourth, ahead of Meyer, Harbaugh and others, is a bit jarring. (I promise that this Mizzou alum didn’t put his finger on the scales.) Regardless, this is a fun mix of guys who won big at big schools and guys who won pretty big at pretty big schools. That was the goal of the exercise.

Maybe the most confusing coach in this top 20 is Dabo Swinney. Clemson had enjoyed just one AP top-five finish in its history before he took over 16 years ago, and he has led the Tigers to 2 national titles, 6 top-five finishes and 7 CFP appearances. And while they haven’t had a true, title-caliber team in a few years, they’ve still won two of the past three ACC crowns. How is he only 10th?

The main culprit for Swinney’s lower-than-expected ranking is his recent performance — it has been inferior to both national title standards and his standards. Since we’re using a team’s performance against 20-year averages, a lot of this rating is basically comparing Swinney to himself, and he hasn’t quite measured up of late.

From 2012 to 2020, Swinney’s average rating was an incredible 17.0, which would have ranked second to only Saban on the list above. But his average over the past four seasons is only 3.6.

Part of what made Saban so impressive was how long he managed to clear the bar he himself was setting in Tuscaloosa. Per SP+, his best team was his 14th — the 2020 team that won his sixth and final title at Bama. While Swinney was basically matching Saban’s standard 12 years into their respective tenures, Saban continued at a particularly high level for at least three more years while Swinney fell off the pace.

Comparing Saban, Swinney and Smart year by year, we see that Smart was hitting Saban-esque levels seven seasons into his tenure, but his rating has fallen off each of the past two seasons. Even Saban slipped starting in Year 15, even though he still had nearly the best program in the sport for a couple more years.


The best coaches of 2025

Six of the top seven coaches on the list above are either retired or coaching in the NFL now, so let’s focus our gaze specifically on the guys who will be leading college teams out onto the field in 2025. Using the same 20-year sample as above — which cuts off the tenure of Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz but includes everything else — here’s how the current crop of FBS head coaches has performed at the FBS level. We’ll break this into two samples: the guys who have coached for at least four years in this sample and the guys who have coached between one and three years.

Our May top 10 list featured eight guys who have been head coaches for at least four years; all eight are represented on this list, including four of the top five. (Sarkisian has averaged a 13.8 rating over the past two seasons, which is a top-five level, but his overall run as head coach at Washington, USC and Texas has featured a number of ups and downs.)

Maybe the name that jumps out the most above is Josh Heupel. I think anyone would consider him a very good coach (he’s 37-15 overall), but he doesn’t exactly draw any “best in the game?” hype. He benefited from a positive situation at UCF, where he inherited a rising program from Scott Frost in 2019 and produced big ratings in his first couple of years on the job. But his average rating at Tennessee has been a solid 14.0 as well; the Volunteers had been up and down for years, but he has produced four top-20 SP+ ratings in a row and two top-10s in the past three years. He might not be getting the credit he deserves for that.

All in all, I enjoy this list. We’ve got mostly predictable names at the top, we’ve got some oldies but (mostly) goodies spread throughout, and we’ve got room for up-and-comers like Jeff Traylor too. This 60-40 approach probably doesn’t give enough respect to the Chris Creightons of the world — the Eastern Michigan coach has overachieved against EMU’s baseline by 7.2 points per season, which is a fantastic average, but at such a hard job, his Eagles have still averaged only a minus-14.4 SP+ rating during his tenure. Still, this is a mostly solid approach.

Now let’s talk about some small-sample all-stars.

Four of the top six of this list coached in the College Football Playoff last season, and while the guys ranked fifth and sixth made our May top 10 list, the guys who won big at SMU and Indiana, not Oregon and Notre Dame, take priority here. I was honestly floored that Curt Cignetti didn’t make our top 10 list; he led James Madison to one of the best FBS debuts ever, going 19-4 in 2022-23, then he moved to Bloomington and led Indiana — INDIANA! — to 11 wins in his first season there.

On this list, however, Rhett Lashlee tops even Cignetti. I’m not sure we’ve talked enough about the job he has done at SMU. He, too, inherited a rising program, as Sonny Dykes had done some of the nitty-gritty work in getting the Mustangs back on their feet (with help from an offensive coordinator named Rhett Lashlee). SMU hadn’t produced a top-50 ranking since 1985 before Dykes did so for three straight seasons (2019-21). But after holding steady in his first year replacing Dykes, Lashlee’s program has ignited: 12-2 and 24th in SP+ in 2023, then 11-3 and 12th in 2024. Looking specifically at the 2021-24 range, as the game has undergone so much change, Lashlee’s 16.8 average rating ranks second overall, behind only Smart (18.0) and ahead of Kiffin (15.1), Cignetti (15.0), Odom (15.0), Heupel (14.0) and Day (13.9).

Along with quite a few others here, Lashlee made my 2024 list of 30 coaches who would define the next decade; he’d definitely still be on the list — along with new additions like GJ Kinne and perhaps Fran Brown — if I remade that list today.

Continue Reading

Sports

It’s MLB Home Run Derby Day! Predictions, live updates and takeaways

Published

on

By

It's MLB Home Run Derby Day! Predictions, live updates and takeaways

It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!

Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.

While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?

We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.


MLB Home Run Derby field

Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)


Live updates


Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?

Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.

Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.

Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.

His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.

Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.

Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.


Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?

Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.

Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.

Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.

Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.

Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.


Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?

Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.

Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.


What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?

Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.

Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!

Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.

Continue Reading

Trending