NHL goalie tandem rankings: Why the Islanders reign supreme
Ranking the NHL’s goaltending tandems used to be a predictable process: Pencil in the Boston Bruins, Vegas Golden Knights, Dallas Stars and whoever the Tampa Bay Lightning have playing with Andrei Vasilevskiy at the top, and then figure out the rest.
Unfortunately for us, and fortunately for the rest of the NHL, the 2021 offseason was like a goaltending Big Bang. Long-standing duos were broken up. Goaltenders were dispersed throughout North America like space dust, including all the way to Seattle, where a new planet, er, franchise was formed.
“Look at all the changes this offseason. It was a goalie carousel,” said Stephen Valiquette, former NHL goaltender and one of the sport’s foremost analysts on netminders as CEO of Clear Sight Analytics.
Here are the goalie tandem rankings for the 2021-22 NHL season. They were formulated through discussions with a variety of goalie experts — coaches, analytics gurus, former players — as well as through stats from sites like Evolving Hockey, Money Puck and Hockey Reference. We also spoke to Valiquette at length for his take on some of them tandems.
Keep in mind that these are a combination of past performance and projections for the 2021-22 NHL season, including preseason rankings from Clear Sight Analytics. Organizational depth is listed in parentheses where relevant.
As easy as it is for a goalie to play for coach Barry Trotz, it’s equally as hard to be seen as something more than a product of his system. His four-season run in Washington saw the Capitals finish second in the NHL in goals-against average (2.45) during his tenure. During his three seasons with the Islanders, they’ve led the league in team defense (2.46 goals against per game).
Varlamov led the NHL in save percentage (.929) last season among goalies with at least 30 starts, and tied Philipp Grubauer with seven shutouts to lead the league. Grubauer got a Vezina Trophy nomination. Varlamov did not. Nor did Sorokin get any Calder Trophy love, finishing 15th in the voting. Varlamov also didn’t crack the top 10 in our ranking of goalies as voted on by NHL players, coaches and executives last spring.
So we’ll give them their due here. Both would be solid goaltenders on another team. Within this system, they’re the NHL’s best tandem. Varlamov is an athletic veteran whose underlying numbers from Clear Sight Analytics had him as the NHL’s third best goalie last season. His 0.961 expected save percentage on unblocked shots was best in the league last season. Sorokin looked better and better as his rookie season went on, and with a season in the NHL (and living in the U.S.) under his belt, he’s going to have an outstanding sophomore campaign.
The Trotz System is the NHL’s most effective defensive scheme. His Russian netminders are the foundation on which it’s built.
I think Valiquette summed this up perfectly last spring, when we ranked the playoff goalie tandems: “Vasilevskiy is elite everywhere. There, that’s Tampa. We don’t even have to waste time talking about them.”
OK, we’ll waste a little time talking about them. Vasilevskiy has entered that rarefied air of being considered the league’s best goaltender while also leading the league’s best team, but not simply being considered great because his team is. Patrick Roy was like this. Martin Brodeur was like this. He’s been a finalist for the Vezina Trophy for four straight seasons, winning in 2018-19 and finishing second to Marc-Andre Fleury last season. No shade on Nikita Kucherov, but Vasilevskiy (.937 save percentage) was probably the MVP of their Stanley Cup run.
This battery has gotten better with the addition of Elliott, the 36-year-old coming off four seasons in the Philadelphia goalie meat grinder. Neither he nor Curtis McElhinney, last season’s backup, were great shakes in 2020-21: Elliott had a minus-12.1 goals saved above average while McElhinney was at a minus-10.7. But Elliott, a former NHL starter, didn’t exactly have players like Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh in front of him in Philly. He’ll be fine as a spot starter behind the Big Cat.
Ask the goaltending community and they’ll tell you that Grubauer is not a product of the Avalanche’s greatness in front of him. From a technique standpoint, he’s got a lot of fans. From an analytics standpoint, he’s ninth in goals saved above average (29.9) over the last two seasons. The only knock on him has been his play during pressure situations. He wasn’t great down the stretch for the Avs last season, and his playoff numbers haven’t always aligned with his regular-season success.
“I’m really high on Grubauer, and they’ve got really good depth in net,” said Valiquette.
That depth includes Driedger, the former Florida goalie who was right behind Grubauer in goals saved above average over the last two seasons (26.1), while adding nearly five wins to his team. Add in Daccord, and the place to beware the Kraken most is between the pipes.
The Avalanche had to scramble after Grubauer bolted for Seattle in free agency. The offseason goalie merry-go-round had seemingly stopped, and they were left having to surrender a sizable trade package to the Coyotes to secure Kuemper, who is one year away from unrestricted free agency. The 31-year-old has built a reputation through the years as a goalie that’s played better than the team in front of him in Arizona, with 57.2 goals saved above average since the start of the 2017-18 season (12th in the NHL). But he’s 23rd in that department over the last two seasons (20.4) and posted a .907 save percentage in 2020-21 — his lowest in five seasons. He gave up a few too many rebounds and didn’t make the low-percentage saves he had made in the past.
“I worry that he’s coasting on his reputation a bit lately,” said one goalie analyst.
The good news for the Avalanche is that this season doesn’t rest on Kuemper alone. Francouz didn’t play the 2020-21 season due to a lower-body injury. But his rookie campaign in 2019-20 was strong: 21-7-4 with a .923 save percentage. As a tandem, with the team in front of them, this could be one of the best.
There are a few tandems on this list where the whole is greater than the sum of their parts, but this isn’t one. There’s a legitimate argument that Hellebuyck is the best goalie in the NHL, with 26.9 goals saved above average and having added 4.8 wins to the Jets last season. There’s no argument that he’s got the highest work rate in the league at the moment, leading the NHL in games played for the last two seasons and both shots faced and saves for three straight seasons.
But Hellebuyck is walking across the Grand Canyon without a net: Comrie, who replaces Laurent Brossoit, is a 26-year-old journeyman with eight starts in his career. The Jets drafted him in 2013 and he was in their system for three years, so there’s obviously a level of trust that goes beyond the stats. You can afford to have a cheap, unproven backup when your Vezina-winning starter can play 82% of the time.
The Rangers shocked some people when they handed Shesterkin a four-year, $22.7 million extension, which was the richest ever for a goalie on his second contract. New York goaltending legend Mike Richter was not one of those people: “Shesterkin was good enough to give them the ability to think that it’s OK not to sign [Henrik Lundqvist],” Richter told the NY Post in August. “Those guys don’t come along much. So when you have them, you hold on to them, and that’s why it was a wise signing.”
According to Clear Sight Analytics’ numbers, Shesterkin, 26, and Georgiev, 25, combined for the second most goals saved above average in the NHL last season. There are a few concerns here — a lack of experience playing in meaningful NHL games, Shesterkin’s propensity for lower-body injuries — but this is a solid duo on which new coach Gerard Gallant can build.
Lehner showed up to training camp looking slimmer than expected, with coach Pete DeBoer saying, “He walked in the door [and] looked like a different guy.”
That’s good news for the Knights, theoretically, because the 30-year-old is now the man in the net, with Fleury gone. “Lehner can be a wild card sometimes. If he’s focused and has a chip on his shoulder, I love [Vegas],” said Valiquette.
Coming in to back up Lehner is Brossoit, a 28-year-old who previously played for Edmonton and Winnipeg. He had an .918 save percentage in 14 games last season with the Jets. “I love Brossoit. I really do, even going back to when he was struggling to get his footing in the league. He came up under a Western Canadian goaltending model I like,” said Valiquette.
Fleury’s career renaissance in Vegas was one of the best NHL stories of the last decade. From 2017-18 to 2020-21, he had 75.2 goals saved above average, and added 14 wins to the Knights in the standings, capping that run with his first Vezina Trophy last season. He immediately makes the Blackhawks a better goaltending team than they were in 2020-21 (.903 team save percentage). The question is how good does he need to be in order to make up for their defensive shortcomings?
“Am I betting on a career year from Fleury again? I don’t think so. Chicago’s one of the worst defending teams in the league. Plus, Lankinen didn’t finish well at all,” said one goalie expert.
The Panthers are a tough one to figure out because their best goalie is 20 years old and has four regular-season games to his credit. But that’s what they have in Knight: a phenom who could manage to take the crease from a player that’s 13 years his elder and …well, a lot wealthier, contractually.
“Bob had been one of my favorite models to use, up until the last two years, as a coaching tool with young guys,” said Valiquette. “It was easy to see why he’s explosive and good with tracking. But now, he’s lowered his glove and I feel like he’s reaching back. But he’s a hard-working guy. Maybe the pressure of having Spencer there now allows him to stop worrying about his contract and focus on the game.”
Bobrovsky had a better second season in Florida than his first. If the Panthers can get both of them going behind a strong, Joel Quenneville-coached team, a top-10 tandem is an accurate projection.
Demko emerged from the shadow of Markstrom and delivered on the promise he showed in the bubble playoffs of 2020. His 23.7 goals saved above averaged were fifth in the NHL, and the 25-year-old finished with a .915 save percentage in 35 games played.
Behind him, the Canucks swap out Braden Holtby for Halak as the veteran presence. The 36-year-old should be a solid backup, but his numbers took a dip last season in Boston.
“Thatcher Demko is unreal. I really like him,” said Valiquette, who especially likes the fact that the Canucks and goalie coach Ian Clark were able to come to a new agreement. “I had one goalie coach say it to me this way: Ian Clark is a wizard. He can change you. Get you to buy in. He’s very demanding, but I’d say he’s probably the best goalie coach in the NHL.”
The Pekka Rinne Era is officially over in Nashville, and Saros has finally taken over “The Tonight Show” after guest hosting for five seasons. He showed he was ready for the big chair last season, with a stellar 23.9 goals saved above average and a 16-6-1 run through the last three months of the season that dragged the Predators to the playoffs. Rinne playing until he was 38 gave Saros the perfect amount of time to ripen on the vine.
We’re big fans of Rittich as a backup here, having previously been a “1-A” in Calgary from 2018-20.
For the sake of clarification: This ranking is for the regular season. Which means it’s assessing Price as the .909 save percentage goalie he’s been for the last four seasons, rather than “Playoff Carey Price,” who has a .928 save percentage in that same span.
Price is 41st in goals saved above average per 60 minutes (0.148) over the last two seasons, for goalies with a minimum of 1,000 even-strength minutes. Bringing Allen in as Price’s backup was one of GM Marc Bergevin‘s smartest decisions last season. He outplayed the Canadiens star for stretches last season, and started 48% of their games.
Ullmark made the best of a bad situation in Buffalo for six seasons. Sneakily, he was one of the league’s most effective goalies over the last two seasons, with 14.8 goals saved above average — the only regular Sabres netminder on the positive side of that metric in that span.
“Our model has really liked Ullmark over the years,” said Valiquette.
Ullmark signed a four-year, free-agent deal with Boston and joins 22-year-old Swayman in the crease, the latter of whom was 7-3-0 with a .945 save percentage in his first NHL season with the Bruins. It’s going to be an intense competition between the two, as coach Bruce Cassidy has called it a “month-to-month, performance-driven” contest.
Looming in the background here is Tuukka Rask. The 14-year pro and former Vezina winner had hip surgery for a torn labrum this offseason. He’s rehabbing it now and has stated a desire to return to the Bruins this season, even as he remains unsigned. “Can it get sticky? It could,” Cassidy said, via the Boston Globe, “and if it does get sticky, we have to do right by the guys who have signed here, and we’ll address it if it is.”
Talbot’s numbers were as scattered as a Minnesota snow flurry last season. He started 11 more games than he did in Calgary in 2019-20, but saw his even-strength numbers wilt under the workload. However, his rebound control was the best in the league last season, and overall he had 12.7 goals save above average in all situations. His .636 quality starts percentage was the best of his career. There were numbers that indicated he was playing at a near-elite level, and numbers that seemed to indicate the Wild’s goaltending wasn’t playing as well as the defense in front of them.
After getting rolled in the Vegas expansion draft, the Wild made it out of the Seattle draft without having to make a bad side deal to have the Kraken avoid Kahkonen. (Seattle opted for defenseman Carson Soucy.) The Wild like the young Finn a lot, and this tandem’s ranking has the expectation that he’ll improve on a rookie season that saw him play well below replacement level on a good defensive team.
When the Blues signed Binnington to a six-year extension in March — “through the meat of his career,” as GM Doug Armstrong carnivorously put it — they were paying for a known commodity in the regular season. He’s steady, if not the dominant goalie he was in his first season run to the Stanley Cup: Making the low-danger saves that he should, and playing consistently well in one-goal games, of which the Blues play their share. His mental toughness in the regular season makes his postseason struggles — he’s lost nine straight postseason games — all the more glaring.
Husso, 26, was a sub-replacement-level goalie in 17 appearances last season. It was his rookie season, so we’re not trying to judge too harshly. But where have you gone, Jake Allen?
The world is separated into two types of people: Those who believe Hart’s horrific third season in the NHL (.877 save percentage, league-worst minus-16.7 goals saved above average) was an aberration, and those who believe the Flyers’ tandem being ranked this highly is an absolute joke.
Well, much like Harvey Dent, we believe in Carter Hart. And Valiquette agrees.
“I think his struggle last year was mental,” said Valiquette. “Maybe the stress got to him or the load got to him or it was too much, too soon. It’s all consuming and eventually you implode. If we were talking about Carter at this time last season, we were talking about a potential Vezina candidate. His game didn’t fall apart. It was mental. And he pulled himself out of it at the end of the year.”
As for Jones, we’ve got two words for you: Kim Dillabaugh.
“Amongst the goalie coaches community, we all think he’s brilliant,” said Valiquette of the Flyers goaltending coach. “He had Jones in Manchester [AHL affiliate] when Jones was with the Kings. And when Jones was in Manchester, he was explosive and instinctive and athletic. Kim cleaned him up a little bit there, and I think Kim’s really going to help him [in Philadelphia]. Which is key, because Hart needs a safety net like Matt Murray needed a safety net with Marc-Andre Fleury in Pittsburgh.”
The Hurricanes stunned the NHL by making wholesale changes to their crease, allowing Petr Mrazek and James Reimer to walk as free agents and trading Alex Nedeljkovic to Detroit. Replacing them are Andersen, whom Carolina has been interested in acquiring for some time, and Raanta, an effective goalie for the Coyotes on the occasions that he was healthy.
“I like Freddie a lot,” said Valiquette. “His only thing is that he gives up goals when up by a goal or tied score, and that’s happened in the playoffs the last few years. But he’s a terrific goalie who can get super hot and steal [games] in the regular season. Carolina is really good defensively. So was Toronto last year. Truth is, I think Freddie is better when he faces a lot of crap being thrown at him, and steals a game facing 40 shots.”
It’s unbelievably sad that Matiss Kivlenieks is no longer with us. The 24-year-old, who died in a tragic accident during the offseason, would have been a factor for the Blue Jackets this season, both with his play and in their evaluation of their own goaltending depth.
For the first time since 2014-15, someone other than John Tortorella will be coaching the Blue Jackets, and no one named Seth Jones will be patrolling their blue line. How that impacts the overall team defense is anyone’s guess. What we do know: Merzlikins was the better goalie of these two last season, with a .916 save percentage and 7.1 goals saved above average. Korpisalo did nothing to build on his awesome postseason in 2020, finishing with a minus-10.7 goals saved above average and costing his team nearly two wins.
While Merzlikins signed a five-year extension, Korpisalo is in his walk year — with 22-year-old blue-chip prospect Daniil Tarasov waiting in the wings.
Campbell put up solid traditional stats (.921 save percentage and a stellar 17-3-2 record) behind an underrated defensive team in Toronto. Mrazek arrives from Carolina, taking over for Andersen. The Leafs actually finished sixth in the Clear Sight Analytics preseason goalie rankings, mostly due to Mrazek’s occasional goals-saved-above-average streaks. “You know him over the years: He gets on a roll and he can run hot. But he can run equally as cold,” said Valiquette.
Toronto has itself a good regular-season tandem, but Valiquette thinks that’s the limit.
“That’s not a Stanley Cup-winning tandem. I’d imagine that Toronto goes along with this as long as it can, and then makes a change before the playoffs,” he said.
Another goalie expert we surveyed felt that No. 19 was a reach. “I’m not a fan of Toronto tandem at all,” he said. “Campbell concerns me after 30 games, and Mrazek is a guy that always seems to get hurt at inopportune times.”
Petersen is one of the NHL’s quiet success stories, turning 35 games of .911 save percentage hockey last season into a primary starter’s job with the Kings and a three-year, $15 million contract extension through 2024-25. He had 18.8 goals saved above average last season and added 3.5 wins to the Kings.
Quick is … quick. The 35-year-old Conn Smythe winner is a model of inconsistency and was not very good at even strength last season (.898). But there are still some nights when that scrambling goalie who makes miraculous saves shows up. Just not enough of them to compel another team to take on the remaining two years of his contract, despite the Kings’ efforts to deal him this offseason.
As hockey fans, we spend a lot of time talking about young offensive stars whose careers are withering away on terrible teams. Perhaps we should spend more time talking about Gibson, 28, who has spent the last three seasons outside the playoffs on Ducks teams that have posted a combined .455 points percentage. (Hashtag: #SaveGibson.)
Gibson continues to outkick his coverage as an Anaheim goalie, having posted only one middling season analytically (2019-20) while well into double-digits on goals saved above average in his other recent campaigns. He’s in the third season of an eight-year deal he signed in 2018. Hopefully the Ducks given him a team worthy of his talents before that term ends.
Stolarz has only 34 games played since entering the league in 2016-17, but we figure on Gibson starting 60-plus games anyway.
There was speculation that GM Ron Hextall might make dramatic changes in goal after last season, following Jarry’s playoff meltdown and because Hextall would seem rather particular about who’s in his net. But the Penguins ran it back with Jarry and DeSmith.
These two were fine from a traditional stats perspective (.908 team save percentage, ninth in the NHL) but less so analytically (26th in goals saved above average per Real Clear Stats). DeSmith, it should be said, was the better goalie last season, but Valiquette is optimistic that a reunion between Jarry and Andy Chiodo, his goalie coach in the AHL, could do wonders for him. “Andy’s one of the hardest working guys in the league, and the smartest. I bet you Jarry has a much better season under Chiodo,” he said.
Please note that this ranking is no way connected to our lingering bitterness that the Penguins opted out of a possible Marc-Andre Fleury reunion tour.
It’s a tale as old as time in the NHL: a goalie signs a free-agent blockbuster contract and then immediately discovers their mobility to make saves has been hindered by the weight of it.
Markstrom signed a six-year, $36 million deal prior to 2020-21, and his numbers plummeted after finishing fourth for the Vezina Trophy in his walk year with Vancouver. But he wasn’t a disaster for the Flames — especially since he was facing an offensive barrage in the North Division on a disappointing team. His underlying numbers remained on the positive side, too.
“I love Markstrom. I love how much he plays and I think he’s going to thrive under [coach Darryl] Sutter,” said one goalie expert we surveyed, “but he’s got absolutely nothing behind him.”
Said another goalie expert: “I like Markstrom in Calgary but I wonder about that tandem. I’d think Darryl rides Markstrom hard. Will be interesting to see how he responds. That could be a disaster there if he’s not healthy. So they could be lower.”
Clear Sight Analytics has the Devils ranked No. 10 overall in the preseason, in combined goals saved above average. As a tandem, these two do have promise. Blackwood had a struggle last season after a bout with COVID, and the Devils struggled last season overall in goal, finishing with a .891 team save percentage, 30th in the NHL. Bernier is a solid fix for that, having braved the net in Detroit for three seasons. He’ll push Blackwood and replace him if necessary.
The Devils also improved their defense corps over last season, and their goaltenders should benefit from it.
“I think Blackwood is a stud, and I’d have that tandem around 20,” said one goaltending expert.
The Stars are a tough team to figure out because of their depth chart.
Is Bishop ever going to play again? He believes so, having missed 18 months after two knee surgeries. His goal is to return this season. If that happens, well, the Stars just added a three-time Vezina nominee to their crease.
Oettinger, 22, looked good in 29 appearances last season. Khudobin, 35, remains a battler, even if his stats took a tumble last season (.905 save percentage). “I really like Khudobin. He’s the competitor. Whatever it takes, he’s going to get it done,” said Valiquette.
But Holtby, who signed a one-year deal as veteran insurance due to Bishop’s injury … just doesn’t seem like Holtby anymore. “When I watched him last year, he didn’t seem like a hungry goalie anymore,” said one goalie expert. “You hope this isn’t a swan-song contract.”
The Capitals hope to see this duo together more than they did last season, when Samsonov was recovering from an offseason injury and then had two bouts with the COVID protocols to limit his season to just 19 games.
Vanecek stepped in and stepped up, going 21-10-4 in 37 games with a .908 save percentage, finishing sixth for the Calder Trophy. He was selected in the Seattle expansion draft and then traded back to the Capitals after a week, which is either an indication of the Kraken’s goalie depth or a nifty bit of goalie laundering by Washington.
Said one goalie expert: “I want to like the Washington tandem, and for some reason I feel they perform well this year. It’s just a hunch, but Samsonov has gone through constant issues the last couple years and I feel this is the year he gets his act together. If so, I think they could be mid-teens.”
Some aren’t so optimistic: “I don’t think he has a presence in the net. He doesn’t look to me to be that guy,” said another goalie expert. “And Vanecek moves way too much for an NHL goalie. I don’t like the Caps at all.”
Every goaltending expert we spoke with for this ranking remains baffled by the Oilers. Baffled that this duo is back for a third straight season. Baffled that they’re actually not that bad — a .910 team save percentage in the offensively explosive North Division in 2020-21, good for 8th in the league. Baffled at how Smith, now 39 years old, continues to defy the odds with performances like his .923 save percentage and 21-6-2 record last season.
But at least one expert thinks the magic is going to run out. “I expect a significant regression for them,” he said.
The success or failure of this tandem comes down to two basic questions: Can the Red Wings continue their year-over-year improvement as a defensive team, and were the Hurricanes right or wrong about Nedeljkovic? The Canes didn’t think he was worth a contract extension for three months of light-out, Calder Trophy-nominated hockey. The Red Wings were willing to give him two years and $6 million for it.
Greiss is one of the NHL’s best complementary goalies, playing to his fourth above-average campaign in the last five seasons. He had the misfortune of losing eight overtime or shootout games, tied for most in the league last season. This tandem could look better than expected if the defense can help them get their goals-against average under 3.00.
By swapping out Martin Jones and Devan Dubnyk, the Sharks made additions by subtractions. Given their salary cap restrictions, getting Reimer and Hill in as the new tandem isn’t a bad bit of business.
Reimer has had only one sub-replacement campaign in his last four seasons, although his quality of play has had an every-other-year oddity to it. (Let it be known that he’s “due” for another solid one for San Jose this season.) But it’s Hill on whom a few of the goalie experts are rather high. He showed flashes for the Coyotes in his 49 games in the NHL, and quietly had a better season than the much more heralded Darcy Kuemper last season.
Murray said he put on around 13 pounds in the offseason — 7,500 calories per day, on trainer’s orders — to bulk up his frame. So he’s now the big presence in goal that the Senators need, literally, if not figuratively. Whether crushing carbs translates into better success is anyone’s guess, after two sub-replacement seasons in a row with the Penguins and Senators. The 27-year-old has a new goalie coach in Zac Bierk, who appeared to get results late last season, but Murray has a long road back to respectability: His low-danger save percentage above expectation was third-worst in the NHL.
Forsberg has shown some competence in limited NHL action. Perpetual goalie of the future Filip Gustavsson remains in the mix.
“You know who the surprise is going to be this season? Craig Anderson,” one goaltending expert told us. “The team is going to be horrible, but he’s going to pull a rabbit out of his hat on a lot of nights.”
That’s conceivable, seeing as how that’s been Anderson’s M.O. for most of his career. The 40-year-old goalie was apparently retired (per his former team, the Capitals) before being compelled out of his easy chair to play in back of the Sabres, of all teams.
Dell had one above-average season in San Jose (2019-20), and that’s it.
Both goalies are placeholders for Luukkonen, the 22-year-old goalie of the future that the Sabres aren’t rushing to the big stage. If he earns a place in the NHL roster, this tandem could move up a smidge.
We’re all about the positive here in the goalie tandem rankings, so let’s take a moment and be happy for Hutton. The guy went 1-10-1 last season, his third season watching pucks fly by him while with the Sabres. Yet he managed to find another NHL starting gig at age 35. He’s paired with Korenar, a goaltender who has done absolutely nothing to indicate he belongs on an NHL roster this season.
The Coyotes have positioned themselves to be as terrible as possible to secure a high pick in next summer’s top-heavy draft. This tandem is part of that plan, to put it kindly.
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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
Every year at the IIHF world junior championships, the best under-20 players represent their countries in battling for hockey gold. But they have another mission as well: picking the perfect song for goal celebrations.
It has become one of the most charming traditions at the annual tournament in recent years, to the point where speculation about the signature goal song has become news in Canada. The reaction to the reveal of the 2025 World Juniors’ goal song, “Live is Life” by Opus, was mixed, as many fans were underwhelmed by the choice after years of bangers like “Let Me Clear My Throat” by DJ Kool and “Song 2” by Blur.
Team USA is trying to win back-to-back championships, but they might have already claimed victory for the most memorable goal song of the 2025 tournament: “Free Bird,” the 1973 rock anthem by Lynyrd Skynyrd.
The Americans showed an affinity for classic rock last tournament when they had “The Boys Are Back in Town” by Thin Lizzy as their goal song. So how did they decide to play some Skynyrd, man, at this year’s tournament? Team USA told ESPN that University of Denver defenseman Zeev Buium suggested the option.
“I don’t know, we were kind of on the bus, hanging out, trying to figure out a song. We were all throwing out songs and we all kind of clicked on it,” said Buium, who was selected 12th overall by the Minnesota Wild in the 2024 NHL Draft.
Buium said goalie Jacob Fowler from the 2024 world junior team was a big fan of the song.
“So we thought it was a good tune to go with,” Buium said.
Once the players settled on “Free Bird,” the next decision was what part of the 9-minute song should be used after goals. The section of the song used for goal celebrations kicks in at the 4:45 mark, right after “Lord, help me, I can’t change” as the guitars start rocking.
“The first five or six minutes of that song are super mellow and not much going on. So we knew that was the part of the song we were going with,” Buium said. “When I’m just hanging out with the guys, I’ll just throw it on. It’s a long song. Everyone sits around waiting for that part.”
The song was played 10 times in Team USA’s 10-4 opening game win over Germany on Thursday and earned stellar reviews from fans and the players themselves.
What a play 👀 #WorldJuniors pic.twitter.com/cQv4XX1T68
— USA Hockey (@usahockey) December 26, 2024
“It’s one of the best ones in the tournament, for sure,” said defenseman Cole Hutson. “It’s just catchy. It’s something you can sing along to after you score.”
The U.S. hopes to hear the song much more as the tournament continues, with the championship game taking place on Jan. 5, 2025. If they leave there tomorrow, you probably won’t remember them. So they’ll be traveling on now, ’cause there’s too many games they’ve yet to play …
The 2024 bowl season is underway, with several games already in the books.
Our college football experts provide their thoughts on all 36 bowl matchups, including key storylines to follow and a player to keep an eye on in every game, followed by a takeaway and the MVP as games conclude.
Get ready, because it’s the best time of the year!
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Takeaways
Takeaway: The Sooners went for a 2-point conversion and the win after Oklahoma quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. found Jake Roberts for a 10-yard touchdown pass with 6 seconds remaining. But Navy‘s Justin Reed sacked Hawkins on the 2-point try, sealing the victory for the Midshipmen. With the bowl defeat, the Sooners finished with a losing record for the second time in three years under coach Brent Venables; until 2022, Venables’ first season, OU had not had a losing record since 1998.
Quarterback Blake Horvath led the way offensively for Navy (10-3), which reached double-digit wins for the first time since 2019.
He sliced through the Oklahoma defense for a school-record 95-yard touchdown run to tie the game in the third quarter, then engineered what proved to be the game-winning drive in the fourth.
Hawkins had his moments too after taking over for Jackson Arnold, who transferred to Auburn earlier this month. But Hawkins got little help from his receivers, who dropped several passes. Though Hawkins is expected back, the Sooners are banking that transfer quarterback John Mateer — who followed his offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle, from Washington State — can elevate an OU offense that struggled in its first year in the SEC.
MVP: With his 155 rushing yards and two touchdowns, Horvath became the first FBS player since Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts in 2019 to reach 1,250 rushing yards and 30 total touchdowns in a season, according to ESPN Research. — Jake Trotter
Takeaway: The first bowl game after Christmas featured 17 lead changes, multiple scuffles, two pick-sixes, a handful of premature celebrations and the first six-overtime finish in FBS bowl game history. Pitt entered Thursday decimated at the quarterback position with starter Eli Holstein (leg) sidelined by injury and backups Nate Yarnell and Ty Dieffenbach in the transfer portal. The Panthers’ remaining quarterbacks — redshirt freshman walk-on David Lynch and true freshman Julian Dugger — combined for just 137 passing yards and prompted Pitt to run the ball 60-plus times in a game for the first time in more than a decade, leaning heavily on junior Desmond Reid (33 carries, 169 yards, one touchdown). Dugger eventually settled in and delivered a gutsy performance in the loss, but the quarterback battle decidedly belonged to Toledo junior Tucker Gleason, who threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns with an interception and accounted for five scores in overtime, including his winning connection with Junior Vandeross III in OT No. 6. Down 30-20 before Darius Alexander‘s 58-yard, fourth-quarter pick-six, Toledo stormed from behind to claim its second victory in seven bowl appearances under head coach Jason Candle. Meanwhile, Pitt, which opened the season 7-0, became the second bowl team in FBS history to end its season on a six-game losing streak.
MVP: Wide receiver Junior Vandeross III. On the day Gleason reached a career-high yardage total, he found the junior wide receiver on roughly 46% of his total completions. Vandeross hit career bests with 12 receptions for 194 yards, including a 67-yard touchdown grab in regulation, before completing the game-sealing 2-point conversion. — Eli Lederman
Rate Bowl: Kansas State 44, Rutgers 41
Kansas State ranked 16th nationally in rushing during the regular season (204.5 yards per game), and the Wildcats rode a dominant run game to erase a 14-point, second-half deficit in Phoenix. Dylan Edwards‘ searing speed was the platform as Kansas State exploded for 340 rushing yards Thursday night, representing the program’s second-best total of the season and second-highest bowl game rushing tally. Missing star running back Kyle Monangai (opted out), Rutgers delivered an impressive rushing performance of its own, leaning on Antwan Raymond and Ja’shon Benjamin (25 carries, 146 rushing yards, 5 touchdowns combined) to build a 34-17 lead six minutes into the second half. But Kansas State clawed back with Edwards’ pair of long rushing scores and two second-half passing touchdowns from Avery Johnson, scoring 27 second-half points to secure the program’s largest comeback win since 2020. Wildcats coach Chris Klieman has back-to-back bowl wins and three straight nine-plus win seasons.
MVP: Running back Dylan Edwards, who averaged a whopping 10.9 yards per carry and bookended Kansas State’s second-half scoring with electric rushing touchdowns of 65 and 35 yards, the second of which put the Wildcats ahead 44-41 with 4:15 remaining. Edwards’ 196 yards on 18 carries were the most in a bowl game in Kansas State program history. — Lederman
68 Ventures Bowl: Arkansas State 38, Bowling Green 31
Takeaway: Despite being outgained by more than 100 yards, Arkansas State emerged from Thursday night’s bowl with the program’s first eight-win season since 2019. The Red Wolves did not have a particularly explosive day on the ground or in the air, but they made plays in every facet of the game and were opportunistic in the face of the Falcons’ mistakes. The Arkansas State defense forced a key fumble, made a crucial fourth-down stop in the second half and played a role in three missed field goals from Bowling Green. Special teams did its part, too, as Courtney Jackson returned a punt for a touchdown in the first quarter that put Butch Jones’ team up 10 early and gave the Wolves the necessary momentum for the rest of the game. And when Arkansas State needed it most, the offense stitched together an eight-play, 68-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter that ate up the clock and ended up being the difference. Red Wolves quarterback Jaylen Raynor was a steady presence, while running back Zak Wallace ran for 99 yards, including several clutch runs late in the game that kept the chains moving and ended any slim chance the Falcons had at a comeback.
MVP: It’s not common to give this honor to a player on the losing side, but it’s hard not to recognize Harold Fannin Jr., who capped his incredible season with a 17-catch, 213-yard, one-touchdown performance. The junior tight end finished his season with 117 catches for 1,555 yards and 10 touchdowns. — Paolo Uggetti
Hawai’i Bowl: South Florida 41, San José State 39 (5 OTs)
Takeaway: The only football game (college or pro) on Christmas Eve did not disappoint, technically ending on Christmas Day in the Eastern time zone but not in Hawai’i, where South Florida prevailed in a record fifth overtime. No bowl game had exceeded three overtimes since the overtime rules were implemented in 1996. Coach Alex Golesh’s team ultimately had the upper hand in key situations, especially on special teams, as the Bulls had a 93-yard kick return touchdown, connected on two field goals to extend the game and received a 72-yard punt from Andrew Stokes — one of three that traveled 50 yards or longer — that backed up San José State at the end of regulation. The Bulls scored on four of their five overtime possessions and could have won the game in the fourth extra session if wide receiver Michael Brown-Stephens had stayed in bounds on a creative 2-point conversion attempt. Quarterback Bryce Archie started strong, completing his first 12 pass attempts, before going cold and throwing a near pick-six that appeared to cost South Florida the game. But he responded well late in regulation and in overtime as the Bulls improved to 10-1 in overtime games, the best mark in FBS history. San José State received a career performance from Matthew Coleman (12 receptions, 119 yards), filling in for FBS receiving yards leader and Biletnikoff Award finalist Nick Nash. But some situational miscues ultimately doomed the Spartans.
MVP: South Florida linebacker Mac Harris had a big night for a playmaking defense, recording two tackles for loss, eight total tackles, a quarterback hurry and a pass breakup. — Adam Rittenberg
Takeaway: Never say the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl doesn’t give you your money’s worth. In the fourth quarter and overtime alone, we got two missed go-ahead field goals (one from each team), three quick overtime touchdowns, endless overtime trickery from NIU and, eventually, a crushing, game-winning fourth-down sack from Jordan Hansen to give the Huskies a 28-20 victory. And after the celebrations and french fry baths, we got the winning team lifting Spuddy Buddy on its shoulders. What else could you possibly want from your bowl experience?
The ending was worth it, but both teams had chances to seize the game in regulation. Fresno State led 13-3 at halftime, but NIU scored 10 points early in the second half — including six on a beautiful 26-yard touchdown catch from Grayson Barnes — to tie the game heading into the fourth quarter. NIU drove the length of the field late but settled for a 35-yard field goal attempt on fourth-and-1 (violating the swashbuckling spirit of the Potato Bowl) and missed with 3:02 left. Then Fresno State missed a 34-yarder at the buzzer, too. Destiny demanded overtime, and the Huskies took all the potato glory.
MVP: Josh Holst. The freshman quarterback threw for 182 yards and two touchdowns, led NIU with 65 rushing yards and caught a 2-point conversion pass in the second OT. — Bill Connelly
Takeaway: With Coastal Carolina playing at home, and UTSA having lost each of its six road games this season, Monday’s game between 6-6 teams figured to be competitive. But the Chanticleers were decimated by losses in the transfer portal, including their top two quarterbacks, as well as a few star players on defense. After a slow start in the first quarter, UTSA scored touchdowns on three straight possessions to take a 21-0 lead at the half. The Roadrunners added two field goals in the third quarter. After Coastal Carolina finally got on the scoreboard on Tad Hudson‘s 50-yard touchdown pass to Bryson Graves on the first play of the fourth quarter, UTSA answered with Chris Carpenter’s 93-yard kickoff return for a score to make it 34-7. The highlight of the game came when UTSA players celebrated Jakevian Rodgers‘ interception on a fake punt by jumping into the makeshift beach at Brooks Stadium. They were flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct. It was one of 10 such penalties in the game. After starting 3-5, the Roadrunners won four of their past five games to finish 7-6. After starting 4-1, the Chanticleers dropped six of their last eight to finish 6-7.
MVP: UTSA quarterback Owen McCown accounted for touchdowns passing and running, completing 23 of 30 passes for 254 yards with one TD pass and one interception. He also ran four times for 37 yards with one touchdown, helping the Roadrunners set bowl records for points and total yards (513). — Mark Schlabach
Takeaway: It took a while for Florida to get going on offense, as DJ Lagway struggled at times — throwing two interceptions, including one in the red zone. Indeed, the early trips to the red zone ended in field goals — keeping Tulane in the game. But once the Gators started converting their long drives into touchdowns in the second half, they put the game out of reach. Tulane struggled without quarterback Darian Mensah, who has already transferred to Duke. The Gators, meanwhile, rolled up 529 yards — the most against an FBS team this year — and Lagway ended up throwing for 305 yards, moving to 6-1 as the starter this season. The defense was stellar, with three interceptions and a near shutout, giving up a touchdown with 29 seconds left. Florida finishes the season with eight wins for the first time since 2020 — a somewhat unexpected result considering the way the season began. But since athletic director Scott Stricklin announced Billy Napier would return for 2025 in early November, Florida went 4-1 — including a four-game winning streak to end the season. Lagway returns next season, along with his top receivers and young running backs, too. There should be reason for optimism in Gainesville based on the way the season ended and who is set to come back.
MVP: Desmond Watson. The 449-pound defensive lineman had multiple viral moments — lifting Tulane’s running back in the air to make a tackle, then later in the game, carrying the ball and gaining a yard on third-and-1 to pick up the first down. –– Andrea Adelson
Takeaway: The Bobcats took a 20-point lead at the half and then held on in the final two quarters for their seventh straight victory. After the Gamecocks pulled within a field goal with about 3½ minutes left, Ohio ran out the rest of the clock with a long drive. It was an impressive debut for Ohio coach Brian Smith, who was promoted from offensive coordinator on Wednesday after Tim Albin left for Charlotte. The Bobcats captured 11 victories in a campaign for the first time in the 63-year history of the program. They’ve also won six straight bowl games; their last loss was at the 2016 Dollar General Bowl. After punting on each of its first two possessions in the Cure Bowl, Ohio scored touchdowns on four of its next five to grab a 27-7 lead at the half. The Bobcats piled up 309 yards of offense in the first 30 minutes, including 153 rushing. Jacksonville State, which won a Conference USA title in its second season as an FBS member, didn’t put up much of a fight in the first half. The Gamecocks were led by interim coach Rod Smith, after former coach Rich Rodriguez agreed to return to West Virginia. Jacksonville State is hiring Auburn defensive coordinator Charles Kelly to replace Rodriguez, sources told ESPN on Friday. The Gamecocks had only 8 rushing yards and five first downs in the first half. They had more than a dozen players enter the transfer portal after Rodriguez’s departure, including top edge rusher Reginald Hughes (Colorado) and safety Zechariah Poyser (Miami), who didn’t play against Ohio.
MVP: Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro, who was the offensive MVP of the MAC championship game, accounted for four touchdowns in the first half against Jacksonville State, scoring on three runs and throwing an 11-yard pass to running back Anthony Tyus III. — Mark Schlabach
Takeaway: Sam Houston captured its first bowl victory as an FBS team. The Bearkats nabbed three first-half interceptions that they turned into 14 points. QB Hunter Watson had 14 straight completions at one point in the first half, tying the New Orleans Bowl record previously set by Louisiana’s Terrance Broadway in 2014. Sam Houston’s defense and special teams continued to overwhelm Georgia Southern in the second half, intercepting JC French a fourth time and forcing a fumble on a punt return. The Bearkats put the finishing touches on what would become a 10-3 season with a strong defensive performance against one of the better teams in the Sun Belt this season.
MVP: Sam Houston DB Jaylon Jimmerson had his first and second interceptions with the Bearkats in this game, and it’s part of what helped them build a 21-7 lead in the first half. He also had nine total tackles and a TFL. — Harry Lyles Jr.
Takeaway: It would have been easy for UNLV to not show up for this one. After finishing off a 10-3 season during which two of their losses came to the same team (Boise State) with the second one preventing them from making the College Football Playoff, plus watching their head coach Barry Odom take the Purdue job, not many would have blamed the Rebels for being beaten by a feisty Cal team. Instead, interim head coach Del Alexander stepped up and kept UNLV rolling as it forced two turnovers and limited the Bears to only 13 points. The Rebels had the seventh-best turnover margin in the nation this season and looked the part of a top-25 team all year long. Incoming head coach Dan Mullen will have a lot to live up to after an 11-win season and the program’s first bowl win since 2000.
0:52
Toledo wins 6OT thriller in GameAbove Sports Bowl
Toledo holds on to defeat Pittsburgh in a sixth overtime to win the GameAbove Sports Bowl.
MVP: UNLV’s Marshall Nichols punted the ball eight times Wednesday night, but he’ll be remembered for his arm after pulling off an incredible fake-punt pass play that was drawn up and executed to perfection. — Paolo Uggetti
Boca Raton Bowl: James Madison 27, Western Kentucky 17
Takeaway: Taylor Thompson hauled in the winning touchdown with superhero flair, and Khairi Manns finished off the Hilltoppers with the defensive play of the night. With the score tied in the fourth quarter, Thompson capped off JMU’s 75-yard drive by snagging a pass in the end zone over the top of Western Kentucky linebacker Terreance Ellis. After keeping his body in bounds, Thompson slapped his own helmet three times, then jumped and flashed his hands as if he were shooting Spider-Man webs. The acrobatic score gave JMU a 24-17 lead. Later in the fourth quarter, Manns ended Western Kentucky’s last chance to tie the score. He beat the blocker off the edge, swatted the ball out of the hands of quarterback Caden Veltkamp and recovered the fumble himself. The Dukes finished 9-4 including their first bowl win, an impressive accomplishment for a program that lost coach Curt Cignetti to Indiana and several key players from last season’s team.
MVP: JC Evans. According to ESPN Research, the freshman quarterback became the first FBS player since Washington’s Richard Newton (2019) to rush for a touchdown and also throw a touchdown on his only passing attempt in a bowl game. — Trotter
Takeaway: A game that began with three straight drives resulting in punts turned into an offensive shootout as the Tigers and Mountaineers combined for more than 1,000 yards of total offense and 79 points.
While 10-2 Memphis looked to be in control, going up by as many as 18 in the third quarter, West Virginia scored back-to-back touchdowns to get back in it. The Tigers added another touchdown to go up five points in the fourth. That’s when the fun began. A 50-yard field goal that would have sealed the result for Memphis missed with under a minute left. Then, WVU quarterback Garrett Greene threw what looked to be a game-deciding interception, but Elijah Herring appeared to fumble the ball giving interim coach Rod Smith one last chance to give West Virginia the improbable win before the Rich Rodriguez era begins again. Not so fast. A replay review then determined Herring was sliding and thus, ruled down before the fumble, put an end to the madness and gave Memphis’ head coach Ryan Silverfield an 11-win campaign and a bath of iced coffee his players joyously dumped on him. This is what bowl season is all about!
MVP: Memphis wide receiver Demeer Blankumsee. The senior had one of the best games of the season, totaling a game-high 120 receiving yards, including an 89-yard chunk play, an 18-yard touchdown and a two-point conversion. — Uggetti
Takeaway: After picking up their first bowl win in school history a year ago, the Jaguars added No. 2 with a convincing win against Western Michigan to cap their first season under coach Major Applewhite. Early in the season, it didn’t seem like this was likely. South Alabama went 2-4 to open the season before winning four of five — with a win against Louisiana — to reach bowl eligibility.
Shortly before the game began, it was reported that South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez would not play against Western Michigan as he continues to deal with a turf toe injury. This gave Bishop Davenport the opportunity to make his second start of the season and first since a 27-20 loss to Ohio in the second week of the season. The Jaguars got off to a slow start, falling behind 10-0, but they went on a 23-3 run to take control.
MVP: Davenport. The fill-in starter completed 15 of 24 passes for 271 yards with two scores and ran for 85 yards on 11 carries with a 50-yard touchdown run. — Kyle Bonagura
Takeaway: Things looked promising early for Jackson State despite running back and SWAC Offensive Player of the Year Irv Mulligan having just 29 yards on 13 carries (with a touchdown) in the first half, and two other touchdowns wiped off because of penalties. The Tigers took a 14-0 lead into the break, with South Carolina State unable to find a rhythm on offense. It was much of the same in the second half, as the Bulldogs came out flat, perhaps a product of rust, having not played a game since Nov. 23. Jackson State’s defense was stout throughout the game, holding South Carolina State’s offense to just 212 total yards.
Despite Chennis Berry leading South Carolina State to a Celebration Bowl appearance in his first year, replacing the legendary Buddy Pough, it was T.C. Taylor’s team that came out with more vigor in avenging its 2021 loss in this same football game to the Bulldogs. The win was also Jackson State’s first in the Cricket Celebration Bowl, after losing consecutive appearances during the Coach Prime era in 2021 and 2022.
MVP: Sophomore WR Joanes Fortilien had seven receptions for 55 yards, including two great touchdown grabs and one last catch to seal the game for Jackson State. — Lyles Jr.
Today’s games
Birmingham Bowl
Birmingham, Alabama
3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Georgia Tech
Season storyline: Georgia Tech (7-5) faced a difficult schedule with three of its final five games coming against top-12 teams, and the Yellow Jackets came painfully close to pulling off one of the upsets of the year in college football. After upsetting No. 4 Miami and then beating NC State the next week, both at home, Georgia Tech lost 44-42 in eight overtimes at No. 7 Georgia in the regular-season finale. The Yellow Jackets had a chance to win it in regulation but fumbled on third down with a minute to play, leaving Georgia enough time to drive for a touchdown and force overtime.
Player to watch: Quarterback Haynes King‘s toughness was on full display all season, but never more than in the eight-overtime loss to Georgia. He became the first FBS player in history to pass for 300 yards, rush for 100 yards and have three rushing touchdowns against an AP top-10 opponent. His fumble late in regulation was a killer, but the Yellow Jackets would have never been in the game without him. King, a transfer from Texas A&M, will be without his top receiver Eric Singleton Jr., who recently entered the transfer portal
Vanderbilt
Season storyline: Clark Lea engineered an incredible turnaround this season at Vanderbilt, which has a chance to have its first winning season since 2013 if it can take down Georgia Tech in the bowl game. The Commodores lost 10 straight games to close the 2023 season, and Clark completely overhauled the program in the offseason. The results were immediate, as Vanderbilt started out 5-2 and made an appearance in the top 25 rankings. Along the way, Vanderbilt upset then-No. 1 Alabama 40-35 on Oct. 5, which was Vandy’s first win in the series in 40 years. The Commodores (6-6) seemed to run out of gas to end the season and lost their past three games.
Player to watch: Few players were more entertaining this season than quarterback Diego Pavia, whose ability to scramble and make big plays added a new dynamic to Vanderbilt’s offense. Pavia started his career in junior college at New Mexico Military Institute, then went to New Mexico State and transferred to Vanderbilt, where he led the Commodores in passing and rushing. He accounted for 23 touchdowns (17 passing and six rushing). — Low
ESPN BET early line: Georgia Tech -2.5
Texas Tech
Season storyline: Texas Tech entered the month of November still holding onto hopes of playing in the Big 12 championship game, but those hopes were dashed by a 41-27 home loss to Colorado on Nov. 9. The Red Raiders (8-4) had several big moments and wound up beating both of the teams that did play for the Big 12 title — Arizona State and Iowa State. But in losing three of four games from Oct. 19 through Nov. 9, Texas Tech gave up a total of 135 points. Coach Joey McGuire grew up in Texarkana on the Texas-Arkansas border and was a big Arkansas fan as a kid.
Player to watch: Redshirt senior Tahj Brooks broke the school’s career rushing record this season previously held by Byron Hanspard. After rushing 1,538 yards a year ago, the bruising 5-foot-10, 230-pound Brooks has 1,505 yards in 11 games this season. He has rushed for 17 touchdowns and is ranked third nationally with 286 rushing attempts. He has been the centerpiece of the Texas Tech offense, and the Red Raiders are hopeful he will opt to play in the bowl game.
Arkansas
Season storyline: The Hogs (6-6) need a win in the bowl game to avoid their second straight losing season. The high point was upsetting playoff-bound Tennessee 19-14 at home on Oct. 5, but the Hogs could never find any rhythm as the season progressed. They won just two more games the rest of the way against Mississippi State and Louisiana Tech. Three of their six losses were by a touchdown or less, and with some questions swirling about coach Sam Pittman’s future, he’s set to be back in 2025.
Player to watch: Quarterback Taylen Green‘s best football is ahead of him as he tutors under offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Bobby Petrino, but Green showed flashes this season after transferring to Arkansas from Boise State. Green passed for 2,813 yards and 13 touchdowns, but also threw nine interceptions. He is great at keeping the play alive and tough to tackle. He rushed for 521 yards and seven touchdowns. — Low
ESPN BET early line: Arkansas -2.5
Syracuse
Season storyline: Coach Fran Brown’s first regular season at Syracuse was an overwhelming success, leading the program to its first nine-win season since 2018 and just second since 2001 (both of those were 10-win seasons). Had it not been for a puzzling home loss to Stanford early in the season, Syracuse would have had a chance to tie the single-season school wins record in this game. It was ranked No. 21 in the final College Football Playoff rankings and had two wins against top 25 teams: No. 13 Miami and No. 24 UNLV.
Player to watch: After transferring from Ohio State, quarterback Kyle McCord led the nation in passing yards (4,326) and threw 29 touchdown passes to 12 interceptions. He was held to less than 300 yards in only one game all season — an overtime win against Virginia Tech — and was particularly good down the stretch, throwing for 850 yards over the final two games of the season — wins against UConn and Miami — with five touchdowns and no picks. McCord was named second-team All-ACC.
Washington State
Season storyline: Wazzu’s season almost needs to be evaluated in two parts: The first nine games and the past three games. Because after starting 8-1, the Cougars rose to No. 18 in the playoff rankings — with New Mexico, Oregon State and Wyoming left on their schedule — and were chasing the school’s first 12-win season. Then disaster struck. WSU was upset in all three games to limp to the finish line, eroding much of the positive momentum it had built along the way. Coach Jake Dickert fired defensive coordinator Jeff Schmedding and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle was hired away by Oklahoma at season’s end.
Player to watch: QB John Mateer was one of the most entertaining quarterbacks in college football, throwing for 3,139 yards with 29 touchdown passes and rushing for 826 yards with 15 touchdowns in the regular season. But with that success — in this new era of college football — comes questions about his future at Washington State. As former WSU starter Cam Ward was last offseason, Mateer would surely be a sought-after player in the transfer portal and if he chooses that route, it would likely mean he would not play in San Diego. — Kyle Bonagura
ESPN BET early line: Syracuse -6
Texas A&M
Season storyline: After a 7-1 start, Texas A&M looked as if it had a chance to do something special — and even after losing two of its next three games — against South Carolina and Auburn — still could have played its way into the College Football Playoff. But a 17-7 loss to Texas in the regular-season finale ended that dream, relegating the Aggies to Las Vegas. Still, Mike Elko’s first season in College Station represented a step forward following Jimbo Fisher’s ouster.
Player to watch: DE Nic Scourton. Assuming he plays, Scourton will be one of the best pass rushers USC has seen all year. He finished the regular season with 14 tackles for loss and five sacks, leading the team in both categories. In ESPN NFL draft analyst Matt Miller’s November mock draft, Scourton was projected as the No. 20 pick.
USC
Season storyline: USC’s third season under Lincoln Riley was such a disaster that he was forced to address reports that he was a candidate for the vacancy at UCF. Riley quickly dismissed them, but the possibility that that was even slightly plausible speaks volumes. The Trojans went from 11-3 in Riley’s first season to 8-5 last year to 6-6 in 2024 and finished with a losing record (4-5) in the Big Ten. If not for a buyout reportedly in the neighborhood of $90 million, it’s fair to question whether Riley would still be the coach.
Player to watch: RB Woody Marks. A transfer from Mississippi State, Marks was a seamless addition for USC, rushing for 1,133 yards and nine touchdowns — by far the most productive season of his college career. He was one of two USC offensive or defensive players named second-team All-Big Ten, alongside offensive guard Emmanuel Pregnon. — Bonagura
ESPN BET early line: Texas A&M -2.5
Previews
UConn
Season storyline: UConn had its best campaign since 2010, finishing 8-4 in the regular season. It was another step up for a program considered arguably the most embarrassing in all of college football four years ago, now in a bowl game for the second time in three seasons under head coach Jim Mora Jr. The progress for the program was a long time coming, and the Huskies have built a roster that has the talent to compete at the Group of 5 level, including QB Joe Fagnano, who threw for 18 touchdowns to just four interceptions. A win in the Fenway Bowl would be another big turning point. The Huskies haven’t won a postseason game since 2009.
Player to watch: Senior linebacker Tui Faumuina-Brown is the centerpiece of a UConn defense that will be tasked with slowing down UNC’s balanced offensive attack. Faumuina-Brown finished the regular season with 88 tackles, including 10.5 for a loss, to go with 4.5 sacks, 6 QB hurries and 6 pass breakups. — David Hale
North Carolina
Season storyline: A season that started with real promise hit a roadblock Sept. 21 when the Tar Heels were demolished by James Madison, 70-50. In the aftermath, head coach Mack Brown hinted that he might walk away if the team didn’t feel it could win with him anymore, leading to speculation that he would quit. The Tar Heels lost three more in a row after that, dooming their season. The Heels did rebound late, as QB Jacolby Criswell — the Heels’ third starter of the season — found his footing, and tailback Omarion Hampton continued to abuse defenses. But losses to BC and NC State to close out the year left UNC at 6-6 and left Brown out of a job. The bowl game is as much a chance to erase the bad taste of the season as anything, but the future of North Carolina football won’t begin until a new head coach can take the reins.
Player to watch: The Heels’ defensive front was one of the year’s bigger disappointments, but seniors Kaimon Rucker, Beau Atkinson and Jahvaree Ritzie still have a chance to put a positive spin on the season against UConn. Rucker, in particular, battled injuries all year, but he still finished with eight tackles for loss.
ESPN BET early line: North Carolina -4
Boston College
Season storyline: This was always going to be a season of change for Boston College, with Bill O’Brien taking over as head coach and a new approach to a system for the Eagles. A big part of that shift was reeling in QB Thomas Castellanos, who was a prolific runner in 2023 but was asked to play more from the pocket in 2024. That formula didn’t quite work out, and Castellanos was ultimately benched — a decision that resulted in him leaving the team. After Grayson James took over, however, the offense came to life and BC won its final two games, against North Carolina and Pitt. James had four touchdowns and no picks in those games.
Player to watch: Kye Robichaux and Treshaun Ward have been a dynamic duo in BC’s backfield this season, combining for 1,131 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. They’re a thunder-and-lightning combination, with Robichaux serving as the power back who dominates at the goal line, while Ward is explosive and a weapon in the passing game.
Nebraska
Season storyline: Here’s the good news: Nebraska is playing in a bowl game. That’s something the Cornhuskers hadn’t been able to say since 2016. This year, they ended the longest bowl drought in the country, so that’s an unquestionable success story. But, it’s not exactly where Nebraska fans wanted their team to be, either. After a 5-1 start to the season, the Huskers dropped five of their next six and finished at .500. Their woeful record in one-possession games continued, too, with losses to Illinois, Ohio State, UCLA, USC and Iowa all coming by eight or fewer points. And although heralded freshman QB Dylan Raiola had some nice moments, his final stat line — 12 touchdowns, 10 INTs, 6.8 yards per pass — wasn’t exactly going to get him into the All-Big Ten conversation. So yes, Nebraska is happy to be here. But it will be a lot happier next year if it’s fighting for a playoff berth.
Player to watch: Ty Robinson is the leader of a veteran defensive front that has been one of the nation’s best at stopping the run. Nebraska ended the regular season allowing just 106 yards per game on the ground, No. 12 nationally, along with just six rushing touchdowns. Robinson had 22 tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage, leading the way, along with John Bullock and Jimari Butler, who each chipped in with a run stuff rate better than 5%. — Hale
ESPN BET early line: Nebraska -4
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, New Mexico
Dec. 28, 2:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Louisiana
Season storyline: In his third season as the Ragin Cajuns’ coach, Michael Desormeaux delivered a 10-3 campaign that featured a six-game winning streak and an improvement on close games (they lost five games by a touchdown or less last season). Getting back to double-digit wins was huge for Desormeaux after back-to-back 6-7 years following the departure of Billy Napier to Florida. The Cajuns finished atop the Sun Belt during the regular season, and although they lost to Marshall in the conference championship game, the trajectory of the program seems to be headed in the right direction under Desormeaux.
Player to watch: RB Bill Davis. Despite his youth, Davis’ carries increased and he made the most of them. He led the team in rushing yards (775) and touchdowns (nine) and was an immediate difference-maker for the Cajuns in just his first full year. Heading into the bowl, Davis has shown both consistency and explosiveness as he had touchdown runs of 49, 60 and 73 yards this season and could be due for a breakaway anytime he touches the ball.
TCU
Season storyline: After a disappointing 5-7 season that followed its 2022 national title run, TCU bounced back this season with an eight-win campaign that culminated with the Horned Frogs winning five of their last six games. Sonny Dikes seems to have TCU’s passing offense back on track. This season, it was one of eight teams in the country that averaged over 300 passing yards per game. The imbalance, however, was pretty stark — the Horned Frogs are 90th in rushing attack and are averaging only just over 4 yards per carry this season. The recipe is quintessentially Air Raid and, although it was good enough in 2022 (when they ranked 79th in rushing), it might need some work going forward.
Player to watch: QB Josh Hoover. The sophomore had a quiet breakout year and showed his talent as a passer. Hoover threw for 3,697 yards and 308 per game (top 10 in the nation among all quarterbacks) while adding 23 touchdowns, plus four more on the ground. The 10 interceptions is an eyesore, but Hoover has shown he is capable of leading TCU’s offense in the near future should he remain with the Horned Frogs for the bowl game and beyond. — Uggetti
ESPN BET early line: TCU -10
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Orlando, Florida
Dec. 28, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Iowa State
Season storyline: The Cyclones, like Miami, cracked the top 10 in the rankings at one point this season, but a midseason lull against Texas Tech and Kansas upended lofty expectations. The losses were due, in large part, to myriad injuries that had taken their toll on Iowa State, but the Cyclones rebounded nicely to secure a spot in the Big 12 title game before ultimately falling to red-hot Arizona State. Still, at 10-3, this is already the most successful season in Iowa State history, and finishing it off with a bowl win would be the cherry on top for a program that should return a number of key players for 2024, including QB Rocco Becht.
Player to watch: Assuming both suit up for the bowl game, Iowa State will be the only team in the country to feature a pair of 1,000 yard receivers in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. The duo has been dynamic all year, combining to account for 159 of the Cyclones’ 181 catches and 16 of 17 touchdowns by wide receivers.
Miami
Season storyline: At 10-2, the 2024 campaign marks the precipice of Mario Cristobal’s return to Miami, yet there’s no way to interpret this season other than as a disappointment considering what the Hurricanes’ expectations were and the opportunity missed after blowing a 21-0 lead at Syracuse in Week 14. The consolation prize is a bowl game against another team that came up one win short of the College Football Playoff, but the question is just how interested Miami is in putting a bow on a season that fans have already decided is a gift they want to return to the store. That said, Miami is 1-11 in its past 12 bowl games, so finishing with a win here would still represent real progress — even if it’s not the finish line Canes fans had dreamed about.
Player to watch: The fatal flaw for the Hurricanes all season has been a makeshift secondary that was torched routinely, including by Syracuse’s Kyle McCord in the regular-season finale. Iowa State’s passing game is among the most dynamic in the country, putting freshman corner OJ Frederique Jr. and the rest of the Miami defensive backs on notice. Frederique was perhaps the lone bright spot at the position, finishing the regular season having allowed just 38% completions and one touchdown. — Hale
ESPN BET early line: Miami -1
Miami (OH)
Season storyline: A year after winning the MAC, the RedHawks began the season 1-4 and could have easily been 0-5 had it not been for a close win against UMass. The offense appeared to be discombobulated and its inability to finish drives and score at a high level was putting too much pressure on Miami’s defense. Then, things flipped. The offense found a rhythm and the RedHawks ripped off seven straight wins to once again finish atop the conference. Though they were soundly beaten by Marshall in the conference championship, the way they were able to bounce back from a slow start to the season was impressive. Last year, they could not cap off their year with a bowl win, losing to Appalachian State in the Avocados from Mexico Cure Bowl, and they’ll be hoping to change that this time around.
Player to watch: Running back Keyon Mozee. After getting only 19 carries and running for just 60 yards in his first three games of the season, the senior started getting more opportunities and proceeded to carry the RedHawks through the year. From the fifth game of the season against Toledo through the end of the year, Mozee got double-digit carries in every game and posted six games of 100 rushing yards or more. In fact, the RedHawks won all seven games in which Mozee crossed the 100-yard mark this season.
Colorado State
Season storyline: A 2-3 start to the season did not fluster the Rams, who are bound for the new Pac-12 in 2026. Colorado State went on a five-game winning streak, finished second in the Mountain West and were a UNLV loss away from playing in the conference title game. The Rams’ 8-4 season is nothing to shrug at; the program hadn’t had a winning season since 2017, and it appears that coach Jay Norvell has it headed in a positive direction.
Player to watch: RB Avery Morrow. Talk about saving your best for last. Morrow, a fifth-year senior, had never had a season as productive as this one and was coming off a 2023 campaign in which he did not see much of the field and had only 262 yards. Though there may have been other running backs in the Rams’ room who had more potential coming into the season, Morrow led the team with 956 rushing yards on 166 carries and added nine touchdowns. — Uggetti
ESPN BET early line: Miami (OH) -1.5
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Annapolis, Maryland
Dec. 28, 5:45 p.m. ET (ESPN)
East Carolina
Season storyline: The Pirates looked to be a sinking ship after coach Mike Houston was fired after a 3-4 start. Defensive coordinator Blake Harrell was named interim coach, then was hired to replace Houston after guiding ECU to a four-game winning streak in which it had more than 500 yards of offense in victories over Temple, Florida Atlantic, Tulsa and North Texas. The Pirates’ winning streak ended with a 34-20 loss to Navy on Nov. 29. The Pirates will be playing in a bowl game for the third time in four seasons, and they finished with a winning record in AAC play (5-3) for the third time since joining the conference.
Player to watch: Sophomore Michigan State transfer Katin Houser took over the starting quarterback job in a 45-28 loss at Army, the day before Houston was fired. Houser has a 4-2 record as ECU’s starter, averaging 287.5 yards with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions. In a 49-14 victory over Florida Atlantic, Houser completed 17 of 22 passes for 343 yards with five touchdowns and ran for another score. He has passed for 1,859 yards with 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season. One of Houser’s favorite targets has been Anthony Smith, who transferred from NC State before the season.
NC State
Season storyline: Things went sideways for the Wolfpack in a 51-10 loss to Tennessee on Sept. 7, and coach Dave Doeren and his staff struggled to get things back on track. After going 9-4 in 2023, the Wolfpack limped to a 6-6 finish, including 3-5 in ACC play. The Wolfpack had to defeat rival North Carolina 35-30 on Nov. 30 to become bowl eligible. NC State’s Hollywood Smothers scored the winning touchdown with 25 seconds to play in Tar Heels coach Mack Brown’s final game. The Wolfpack will be without defensive coordinator Tony Gibson, who was named Marshall’s new coach on Sunday. Former NC State linebacker Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay will serve as the interim coordinator and call defensive plays in the bowl game.
Player to watch: Defensive end Davin Vann led the FBS with six forced fumbles, which matched NC State’s single-season record. The Cary, North Carolina, native had 41 tackles, 14 tackles for a loss and 6½ sacks. Vann had three tackles, two sacks and one forced fumble to help NC State rally from a 23-10 deficit in a 24-23 win at California on Oct. 19. One of the Wolfpack’s captains, Vann helped residents of North Carolina recover from Hurricane Helene by mobilizing his family’s moving company. — Mark Schlabach
ESPN BET early line: NC State -5
Valero Alamo Bowl
San Antonio
Dec. 28, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
BYU
Season storyline: After winning their first nine games, including a 22-21 victory at rival Utah on Nov. 9, the Cougars were ranked No. 6 in the second edition of the CFP selection committee’s rankings. But then back-to-back losses to Kansas and Arizona State knocked BYU out of the CFP and the Big 12 title game. The Cougars rebounded to beat Houston 30-18 on Nov. 30, which gave them 10 victories in a season for the third time under coach Kalani Sitake. The Cougars have already doubled their win total from last season’s 5-7 campaign. On Saturday, BYU announced it had signed Sitake to a long-term contract extension.
Player to watch: Quarterback Jake Retzlaff excited BYU’s fan base with his strong play in his first season. A transfer from Riverside City College in California, Retzlaff completed 57.9% of his passes for 2,796 yards with 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. In his first start against FCS program Southern Illinois, he threw for 348 yards with three touchdowns. Retzlaff is one of only three Jewish students at BYU, according to The Associated Press, and once brought a kosher food truck to a team weight training.
Colorado
Season storyline: If Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders was indeed “keeping receipts,” the Pro Football Hall of Fame cornerback will have a lot to crow about after his turnaround season. After losing eight of their last nine games to finish 4-8 in Sanders’ first season, the Buffaloes went 9-3 in 2024. They were on a four-game winning streak until a 37-21 loss at Kansas on Nov. 23 knocked them out of the Big 12 championship race. The Buffaloes are led by Travis Hunter, a two-way star and Heisman Trophy favorite, and quarterback Shedeur Sanders, a potential No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL draft. Sanders has completed 74.2% of his attempts for 3,926 yards with 35 touchdowns and eight interceptions. The Buffaloes did a better job of protecting Sanders this season; he was sacked 38 times after being dropped 52 times in 2023.
Player to watch: Deion Sanders said his son and Hunter will play in the bowl game. Hunter is the only player in the FBS to log over 150 snaps on both offense and defense. Hunter is the Buffaloes’ leading receiver with 92 catches for 1,152 yards with 14 touchdowns. As a cornerback, he has 31 tackles, 11 pass breakups, four interceptions and one forced fumble. Hunter had the fifth-highest offensive grade (86.2) among receivers in the FBS, according to Pro Football Focus, and the third-highest coverage grade (90.9) among cornerbacks. — Schlabach
ESPN BET early line: Colorado -1
Season storyline: The Bulldogs were a late replacement for Marshall, which pulled out of the Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl on Saturday because several players entered the transfer portal after a coaching change. Louisiana Tech finished 5-7, but it could have been much better had things gone differently in three overtime defeats. The Bulldogs lost 23-20 in overtime to Tulsa, 33-30 at New Mexico State in double-overtime and 44-37 in overtime against Jacksonville State. Louisiana Tech opted to keep coach Sonny Cumbie, who is 11-25 over the past three seasons, for at least one more year. Tony Franklin, who was Tech’s offensive coordinator from 2010 to ’12, was hired Dec. 12 to take over the playcalling in 2025.
Player to watch: Bulldogs receiver Tru Edwards will play his final game in his hometown of Shreveport, Louisiana. The son of Louisiana Tech record-setting receiver Troy Edwards, he spent two seasons at Navarro College in Texas and one at Hawai’i before enrolling at Tech in 2022. He exploded this season, leading Conference USA in receptions (77) and finishing second in receiving yards (897). Edwards had 10 catches for 84 yards in the Bulldogs’ regular-season finale, a 33-0 win over Kennesaw State.
Army
Season storyline: It has been a dream season for the Black Knights, who won the academy’s first conference title in the 134-year history of the program by defeating Tulane 35-14 in Friday’s AAC championship game. Army won its first nine games; its only loss was a 49-14 defeat against Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium on Nov. 23. But then the Black Knights lost to Navy 31-13 on Dec. 14. The Midshipmen gained 378 yards, including 271 rushing. The Black Knights won 11 games for the second time in program history; the other time was in 2018 under coach Jeff Monken.
Player to watch: Army senior Bryson Daily is the heart and soul of the offense, running for 29 touchdowns, which is tied with Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty for the FBS lead (Daily has played two fewer games). The senior from Abernathy, Texas, has completed 55.3% of his passes for 942 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions. He has been more potent running the ball with 1,532 yards on 283 attempts. Daily, who was named AAC Offensive Player of the Year and was MVP of the AAC title game, will try to bounce back from his three-interception performance against Navy. — Schlabach
Iowa
Season storyline: It has been your typical Iowa storyline: a team that’s really good defensively (10th in points allowed) with some offensive challenges. Overall, it was a good season for Iowa at 8-4, with its only blowout loss coming against Ohio State in Columbus. A number of opt-outs will have this team looking different in this particular game, but for a team that finished the season winning four of its last five and going up against a good Missouri team (that will have its own share of opt-outs), it will be an interesting test for Iowa entering 2025.
Player to watch: Running back and Doak Walker Award finalist Kaleb Johnson isn’t playing, but Kamari Moulton is. Moulton was the starter to begin the season, before being replaced by Johnson. He had 70 attempts on the season for 377 yards and two TDs, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Quarterback Cade McNamara is transferring out, and Brendan Sullivan will be the starter for Kirk Ferentz’s team, so we could be seeing plenty of No. 28.
Missouri
Season storyline: The Tigers were a popular preseason pick for the College Football Playoff. They finished the season 9-3, with their three losses coming on the road and against teams that were in the Playoff mix in the final two weeks of the season. The Tigers can still clinch a 10-win season, which would mark the third time they did so in back-to-back seasons.
Player to watch: The rest of the receiving room at Missouri. Luther Burden III, one of the best receivers in the nation, won’t be playing in this one. But Missouri is not without other talented wideouts who could step up. Theo Wease Jr. has been credited by Burden for his growth as a player, and Marquis Johnson is another whom the coaching staff has raved about. Of course, Iowa’s defense won’t make anything easy. — Lyles
ESPN BET early line: Missouri -1.5
ReliaQuest Bowl
Tampa, Florida
Dec. 31, Noon ET (ESPN)
Alabama
Season storyline: Kalen DeBoer finished his first regular season with the Crimson Tide at 9-3 and outside the playoff, which might make the Alabama faithful a bit restless considering all the success they were used to under Nick Saban. The Tide’s ugly 24-3 loss at Oklahoma in November (as a double-digit favorite), perhaps the biggest reason Alabama just missed a playoff spot, is also a big source of frustration for the fan base. While there was a big win against SEC champion Georgia and a nice road win at LSU, this season will more than likely be remembered for not only the Tide’s loss to Oklahoma, but also their first loss to Vanderbilt in 40 years.
Player to watch: WR Ryan Williams. All season long, Williams has dazzled Alabama and college football fans with his spectacular and often jaw-dropping catches as an 18-year-old true freshman. His presence alone makes the Alabama offense appointment viewing, even if the unit as a whole has struggled with consistency this season. You just never know when Williams might do something extraordinary that he makes look like another day on the football field. In the regular season, Williams had 857 yards receiving with eight touchdowns and averaged 19 yards per catch. He finished the season with five straight games with at least one catch that went 40 yards or longer.
Michigan
Season storyline: Let’s be honest. The season was saved thanks to a 13-10 win at rival Ohio State that stunned not only the Buckeyes but just about every college football observer. Up to that point, the defending national champions had a season they would rather forget — as the offense struggled with ineffective quarterback play for the bulk of the season. Michigan first-year coach Sherrone Moore found it difficult to replace the production of so many players the team lost to the NFL draft. As a result, offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Kirk Campbell has already been fired. But Moore is now 2-0 vs. the Buckeyes (he was the Wolverines’ interim coach in last year’s game while Jim Harbaugh was serving his three-game suspension) and delivered one of their most memorable wins in the series. Perhaps just as satisfying, Michigan’s win prevented Ohio State from playing for a Big Ten title.
Player to watch: K Dominic Zvada. While we concede it is a bit unusual to choose a kicker as a player to watch, Zvada has provided the lion’s share of the Michigan offense this season — and is the reason for the win over Ohio State, when he kicked a 21-yard field goal with 45 seconds left. The Bakken-Andersen Big Ten Kicker of the Year, Zvada is the first kicker in school history with four or more field goals for 50-plus yards in one season (he has a whopping seven). His only miss on the season was a 28-yard attempt against Illinois that was blocked. — Adelson
ESPN BET early line: Alabama -11.5
Louisville
Season storyline: For the most part, Louisville is a good example of how uneven scheduling can make an impact as these power conferences get larger. The Cardinals drew conference games against SMU, Clemson and Miami, in addition to the nonconference game against Notre Dame scheduled by the ACC. The Cardinals went 1-3 in those games, leaving little doubt about where they belonged in the conference pecking order. Louisville was competitive in all those games, which makes its 38-35 loss to Stanford that much harder to comprehend.
Player to watch: WR Ja’Corey Brooks. After three years at Alabama, Brooks transferred to Louisville in the offseason and immediately became one of the Cardinals’ most important players. The former five-star recruit finished the season with 61 catches for 1,013 yards with nine touchdowns and was a first-team All-ACC selection.
Washington
Season storyline: After reaching the national title game last season, this season always figured to be a step back in Seattle. The loss of coach Kalen DeBoer to Alabama and significant roster turnover — due to departing seniors and the transfer portal — resulted in what amounted to a reset for new coach Jedd Fisch. It was clear after losing the Apple Cup in September, this wasn’t a team that was going to be a serious challenger in its first Big Ten season, and it remained mediocre the rest of the way.
Player to watch: LB Carson Bruener. Bruener committed to UW in 2019, when Chris Petersen was still the coach, then played for Jimmy Lake, DeBoer and Fisch during a standout career. He led the Huskies this season with 93 tackles and three interceptions and was the only player on the team that received higher than honorable mention all-conference honors (he was a third-team selection). — Bonagura
ESPN BET early line: Louisville -4.5
South Carolina
Season storyline: South Carolina closed the season as one of the hottest teams in the country, with six straight victories — including three at the time its opponents were ranked (Texas A&M, Missouri and at rival Clemson). The Gamecocks thought that should have been enough to at least get them into the conversation for the 12-team playoff, but they finished No. 15 in the final CFP selection committee standings. Putting the playoffs aside, South Carolina had a terrific season, and has an opportunity to win 10 games for the first time since going 11-2 in 2013. The fact it was able to push past heartbreaking losses to LSU and Alabama and end the season as one of the best teams in the country speaks to the job Shane Beamer has done this season.
Player to watch: QB LaNorris Sellers. If you have not watched Sellers play yet this season, make sure to tune in because boy is he fun to watch. At 6-foot-3, 243 pounds, Sellers has the size to run through people but also the speed to run by people — a combination that has gotten the best of many good defenses this season. That includes Clemson in the regular-season finale as the Tigers had a hard time wrapping Sellers up and tackling him. His 20-yard run through the heart of the Clemson defense with 1:08 left delivered a 17-14 win. He delivers a pretty ball, too, and completed nearly 65% of his passes while throwing for 2,274 yards, 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.
Illinois
Season storyline: What a season it has been for Illinois and coach Bret Bielema, who have gone 9-3 in one of the biggest surprises not just in the Big Ten but the entire country. Indiana might have Illinois beat for best turnaround, but that does not diminish the job Bielema has done, as Illinois has won nine games for the first time since 2007. The last time the Fighting Illini won 10 games? That would be 2001. While they did not beat any teams ranked in the top 25 at the time, there were still several solid wins on the schedule, including Kansas, Michigan and Nebraska.
Player to watch: QB Luke Altmyer. The junior emerged as one of the most efficient passers in the country, throwing 21 touchdown passes to just five interceptions, while adding another four scores and 219 yards on the ground. Altmyer threw for 2,543 yards and completed nearly 61% of his passes, but beyond the numbers he’s as clutch as they come. According to Illinois, he’s the only quarterback in the nation with three game-winning touchdown passes in the final two minutes or overtime this season — in overtime wins over Purdue and Nebraska, and with 4 seconds left in a win over Rutgers. — Adelson
ESPN BET early line: South Carolina -11
Baylor
Season storyline: Dave Aranda came into the season fully on the hot seat after the Bears went 3-9 and ranked 101st in offense (23.1 ppg) and 116th in defense (allowing 33.3 ppg). Aranda, who arrived from LSU after the 2019 national championship season where he served as defensive coordinator, took over the playcalling duties for the defense and hired Jake Spavital to spread the field on offense. Baylor started 2-4, with losses to BYU, Iowa State, Colorado and Utah, but suddenly put it together, beating Texas Tech 59-35, the start of a six-game winning streak, finishing the season averaging 34.7 points per game, 21st nationally.
Player to watch: Redshirt freshman running back Bryson Washington had 10 carries for 45 yards in three games as a freshman in Waco and had 21, 31 and 28 yards in Baylor’s three early-season losses, and did not play against Utah. But against Texas Tech, he had 10 carries for 116 yards and two touchdowns, and went on to average 136 yards per game when Baylor got hot, including 196 yards and four TDs in a 3-point win over TCU and finishing the season with 192 yards and two scores against Kansas.
LSU
Season storyline: The Tigers, breaking in new offensive and defensive coordinators this season, opened with what looked like a heavyweight bout with USC, losing to the Trojans 27-20 at the Vegas Kickoff Classic on Sept. 1. They rattled off six straight wins, including an OT victory over No. 9 Ole Miss to climb back to No. 8 in the country. But three straight losses to Texas A&M, Alabama and Florida knocked them out of the SEC race before finishing with home wins against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma.
Player to watch: Garrett Nussmeier skipped the Texas Bowl in 2022 after the 2021 season to preserve his redshirt amid the coaching change from Ed Orgeron to Brian Kelly. He said recently he will play in this year’s game while he’s still deciding if he’s going to return to LSU or enter the NFL draft after throwing for 3,739 yards and 26 touchdowns with 11 interceptions this season. Nussmeier was MVP of LSU’s ReliaQuest Bowl win over Wisconsin last season, throwing for 395 yards with three TDs. — Wilson
ESPN BET early line: LSU -2
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, Florida
Jan. 2, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Duke
Season storyline: When Mike Elko left at the end of the 2023 season to take the Texas A&M job, it appeared as though the sky might be falling at Duke. A host of big-name talent left after him, including Riley Leonard, RJ Oben and Aeneas Peebles. Manny Diaz was hired to rebuild the ship, and most doubted it could be done quickly. Instead, Diaz landed a prized QB transfer in Maalik Murphy and bolstered the line of scrimmage with transfers from smaller schools at lower levels. The unlikely alchemy worked, and Duke rolled to a surprising 9-3 season, led largely by explosive plays from Murphy and an attacking defensive front that finished the regular season with the second-most tackles for loss in the country, trailing only its bowl game opponent, Ole Miss.
Player to watch: Duke right tackle Brian Parker is one of the top edge blockers in the ACC, and transfer Bruno Fina has handled himself well at left tackle. The pair will be critical in giving Duke any hopes at pulling off a win against a ferocious Ole Miss pass rush. The key to Duke’s offense is the big play downfield, but giving Murphy time to throw will be a concern.
Ole Miss
Season storyline: If Duke’s season is one marked by surprising success, Ole Miss enters its bowl game wondering what might have been. The Rebels lost three games, all by a touchdown or less, including defeats at the hands of Kentucky and Florida. Win either of those games, and the Rebels are likely in the College Football Playoff. So, what does that mean for the bowl game? Lane Kiffin’s team might justifiably view this as an unwanted consolation prize, and given the amount of veteran talent that was expected to help propel Ole Miss toward a championship, it wouldn’t be a shock if the roster for the bowl game looks a good bit different than the one Kiffin had at his disposal during the season. Still, Ole Miss remains an incredibly talented team, and with all due respect to Alabama and others, the Rebels could rightly claim the title of best team not in the playoff.
Player to watch: Sophomore Suntarine Perkins was a standout performer on the Ole Miss defensive front this season, racking up 10.5 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, eight QB hurries and an interception. Just how many of his teammates on the Rebels’ D-line will be joining him in this game is an open question, but Perkins is enough of a handful on his own to warrant ample attention from the Duke coaching staff, which will be desperate to protect its quarterback. — Hale
ESPN BET early line: Ole Miss -11.5
North Texas
Season storyline: The Mean Green started 5-1 with only a loss to Texas Tech, then suffered eight-point losses to two of the AAC’s best, at Memphis and home against Tulane. They lost 14-3 against Army, followed by losses at UTSA and against East Carolina. The Mean Green rebounded with a road win at Temple to end the five-game skid and become bowl eligible for the first time under second-year coach Eric Morris.
Player to watch: Damon Ward Jr.’s North Texas career is about perseverance. He tore his ACL his senior year of high school, and UNT honored his scholarship. He didn’t play in 2019 or 2020, and the Denton Record-Chronicle reported he has had 12 knee surgeries since then. He missed three games this season with an ankle injury, but opened the season with 12 catches for 230 yards and two TDs against South Alabama and finished the season with 36 catches for 622 yards and four touchdowns. After starting quarterback Chandler Morris went into the transfer portal, Ward, the most experienced offensive player on the roster with 32 career starts, will be counted on to steady whoever emerges as the starting quarterback for the bowl game.
Texas State
Season storyline: The Bobcats return to the First Responders Bowl after beating Rice 45-21 last year in the first bowl win in school history. It was a breakthrough season in coach G.J. Kinne’s first year after the Bobcats had won four or fewer games in each of the previous eight seasons. Expectations were high, and they started 2-0 and in Week 3 almost upset Arizona State, the eventual Big 12 champ and No. 4 seed in the CFP, which escaped with a 31-28 win. Close losses would become a theme: The Bobcats finished 7-5, with those five losses by an average of 5.6 points.
Player to watch: Senior Jordan McCloud was the Sun Belt player of the year at James Madison last season, transferring in to take the reins of Kinne’s offense. He’s experienced and well-traveled, making 43 career starts at Arizona, South Florida, James Madison and Texas State, throwing for 9,828 yards and 87 TDs with 37 INTs and running for 984 yards and 20 scores. This year, he has thrown for 2,920 yards and 29 TDs, and the Bobcats are averaging 37.1 points per game, 10th in the nation. — Wilson
ESPN BET early line: Texas State -7.5
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Charlotte, North Carolina
Jan. 3, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Minnesota
Season storyline: PJ Fleck’s eighth season in charge at Minnesota was as up-and-down as any he has had. The Gophers started with a disappointing 2-3 record with home defeats to North Carolina and Iowa, but they rallied, upsetting USC and Illinois, nearly doing the same to Penn State and pummeling Wisconsin 24-7 in a game that returned Paul Bunyan’s Axe to Minneapolis and prevented the hated Badgers from reaching bowl eligibility.
Player to watch: CB Ethan Robinson. The Bucknell transfer earned honorable mention All-Big Ten honors, and you could make the case that he deserved even better than that: He led the Gophers with three interceptions and 10 pass breakups and allowed just one touchdown pass. Robinson and a sticky secondary could make things awfully difficult for the Virginia Tech offense.
Virginia Tech
Season storyline: Entering the season with Top 25 expectations following last season’s late surge, Tech instead began the year 2-3 with disappointing losses to Vanderbilt and Rutgers. The Hokies played brilliantly in a last-second loss to Miami and seemed to be peaking just in time for injuries to wreck their offensive backfield. Still, a midseason three-game winning streak and a late-season pummeling of Virginia salvaged bowl eligibility.
Player to watch: The quarterback, whoever it is. With so many senior stars — running back Bhayshul Tuten, edge rusher Antwaun Powell-Ryland, nickelback Keonta Jenkins — who might choose to opt out in the coming weeks, it’s hard to figure out which Hokies will definitely see the field in Charlotte. But whether it’s Kyron Drones‘ swan song after an injury-plagued season or it’s freshman William Watson III attempting to continue a pretty solid audition for the 2025 starting job, Tech will have someone pretty intriguing behind center. — Connelly
ESPN BET early line: Minnesota -4.5
Buffalo
Season storyline: The Bulls rebounded nicely from a 3-9 season in 2023 under first-year coach Pete Lembo, who returned to the MAC and helped Buffalo to its highest wins total since 2019. Buffalo recorded notable MAC wins against Northern Illinois (in overtime on the road) and Toledo, and after several blowout defeats, it won its final four regular-season contests. Lembo’s team has a balanced offense that limits turnovers and a defense with some star power but some inconsistent play. The Bulls boast one of the nation’s most prolific linebacker tandems in Shaun Dolac and Red Murdock, who have combined for 302 tackles to lead the MAC, including 30.5 for loss and eight quarterback hurries.
Player to watch: Dolac. The senior linebacker won MAC Defensive Player of the Year honors after leading the FBS in total tackles with 159, while leading the conference in both tackles for loss (16.5) and interceptions (five). He also led the league in tackles last season with 147, which ranked second nationally. Dolac earned MAC defensive player of the week honors five times, a program record, and had two interceptions (including a pick-six) in a late-season win against Eastern Michigan. Liberty will need to craft its offensive game plan around identifying the 6-1, 225-pound Dolac, who is all over the field for coordinator Joe Bowen’s defense.
Liberty
Season storyline: The Flames won a team-record 13 games and reached the Fiesta Bowl in 2023, and returned star quarterback Kaidon Salter and other key pieces for coach Jamey Chadwell. But after a 5-0 start, Liberty saw its nation-leading win streak end against previously winless Kennesaw State, marking the first time in 23 years — and just the sixth time in the AP poll era — that a team 5-0 or better fell to an opponent 0-5 or worse. The Flames would drop two more games and failed to qualify for the Conference USA championship game. Led by Salter and running back Quinton Cooley, Chadwell’s offense remained solid but didn’t reach its standard productivity level.
Player to watch: Cooley. After a 1,400-yard season in 2023, Cooley continued to consistently pile up yards, even for a less-potent Liberty offense. He had eight 100-yard rushing performances and four multi-touchdown games, finishing the regular season with 1,254 yards and 13 touchdowns in 11 contests (Liberty’s game against Appalachian State was canceled). A bowling ball at 5-7 and 220 pounds, Cooley averaged at least 4.1 carries in every game and 6 yards per carry in six games. He will be a challenge for a Buffalo team that ranks 62nd nationally in defending the run. — Rittenberg
ESPN BET early line: Liberty -2
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